China Reality Check: Has the Hard Landing in China Already Started?
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- čas přidán 19. 02. 2015
- China’s economic growth rate fell to 7.4% in 2014, and many believe the official figure is actually more generous than the reality. Most forecasts expect growth to come in well under 7.0% in 2015. What are we to make of these trends? Are we at the beginning of a hard landing where the long history of structural inefficiencies are finally and inescapably being revealed and the possibilities of a financial crisis more ever looming? Or are we in a gradual shift toward a “new normal” of healthier and still relatively robust growth as a result of foresighted policy adjustments? Or is something else going on altogether? Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder of J Capital Research, is a veteran analyst of the China’s economy and economic policy process. She travels widely in China in order to compare official data with actual behavior and performance. Bob Davis of the Wall Street Journal is a leading expert on macroeconomic policy and recently completed an extended posting in Beijing, where he wrote regularly about China’s economy.
Featuring:
Anne Stevenson-Yang
Co-founder and Research Director, J Capital Research
with Commentary from:
Bob Davis
Washington Correspondent, Wall Street Journal
and
Scott Kennedy
Deputy Director, Freeman Chair in China Studies, and Director, Project on Chinese Business and Political Economy, CSIS
Moderated by:
Christopher K. Johnson
Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS
Programs
Economics, Freeman Chair in China Studies, Project on Chinese Business and Political Economy
Topics
Trade and Economics
Regions
Asia, China
Its always funny to see American talking about China Collapsing……
As a Chinese, i enjoy the feeling of collapsing right now.
JackCold According to this economist China collapsed 20 years ago and has had a hard landing every year since then.
American Native We have been collapsing for over 30 years.
Bennnnny1987 part of your understanding is ture, but for the enviromental issue which industrial country did not experience the same thing? It's sad but inevitable, that's the bloody reality. As for the wealth distrubution, naturally the fisrt batch of places who get development will be located in costal areas, that's determined by the features of trading and producing, please think about the rise of London or New York. Tens of millions Chinese immigrants have poured into costal regions from in-land west for economic opportunites actually it is hard to say they're away from the share of economic development. Of course we have realized the seriousness of the enviromental issues and we are also trying to achieve the balanced development among regions, if you go to China you'll be amazed because the country's in-land areas have booming cities and towns.
Bennnnny1987 As opposed to the Military / Economic growth of Europeans was mainly due to Colonial Imperialism. Were it not for WW1 & WW2, leading to the collapse of the former Colonial Imperial Powers, and the influx of foreign talent the USA would not have become what it has been for the last 60 years.
Bennnnny1987 I grew up in a small city far from coastal regions, and I see the improvement in living standards every single time I go back to my hometown. For the environment part, I agree, but the authorities are seriously taking care of it.
I put this video on when I have trouble falling asleep
Good Job Ann!!!
Your speech was so good, so easy to understand.
Very impressed by Anne.
Indeed, her segment alone is just worth the watch. The second wally raises some valid points yet elides past realities to suit his world view. In fact just stop the video at the end of Anne's segment, nothing of value is lost.
Powerslide0 In general there is always an end game to explosive growth. It does seem like the Chinese government is propping up the economy with increased building of infrastructure to improve the GDP growth numbers. Eventually all these things come out. It doesn't really matter who's behind the wheel, you just don't want to be in the car when the wreck happens. I'm hoping it's a slowdown zero growth and not a crash. A crash would send ripples through the world, devastate and destabilize the Chinese government and make someone like Putin in Russia desperate in a world that seems to be closing in on him.
Remember what this young lady Ann was saying, while them to goof balls to the left of her was laughing at her analysis of china market decline? this is my third comment a month ago from my first, today is 07/27/15 and after china government stepped in to infuse capital after losing 5-8 trillion dollars in a month, today they dropped another 8.5 percent. Ann you did a good job. I need your expertise in the near future
Bobby g.
from here it sure looks like Ann is right and this "journalist" speaking @30 min mark isn't
***** I know. she was on point
very good insight at 1:08
This is like the first of class at university, the prof couldn't figure out how the computer works, having mic troubles, and so on.
Is there anywhere I can find a complete set of Anne's slides?
Powerslide0 Anne'sslides/wingwong.com
If that doesn't work - go to this site and click the link
www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article49897.html
Again, America's desperation to find flaws on every other country in the world. Such fear and cowardliness.
I want to point out that stock market collapse doesn't equal the collapse of real economy. So I can't agree with those who use the decline of stock market to verify Anne's viewpoint. This stock market volatility was closely related to shadow banking and hot money.And the shrinking of the stock market helps to release the pressure to some extend. I also think the debt problem and shadow banking is serious. They accrue serious risk to the whole economic system. Financial deepening is inevitable, and developing equity market is one of the most important measures. That is what the government doing during the short bullish market. And Chinese security regulation commission (CSRC) is working on Changing from “examination and approval system” to "registration system" nowadays.
Chinese are intelligent and hardworking, they worked hard for decades and deserve success, get used to it, don't wait for it's collapse - why make your life miserable?
I agree that their government has made alot of bad bets funding everything and yes their stock market has crashed a bit recently and yes over 90% of the chinese water is completely contaminated but that doesent necessarily mean that their manufacturing is going anywhere..
Starting in 2020 east Asia and Europe is the start of contracting populations ,which leads to contracting economy's and tax revenue for the 20 years or more...A demographic/economic death spiral..
Bob Davis (WSJ) seems wonderfully disconnected from actual China anecdotes; at 32:25 totally unable to name a
single Chinese company. Might be best to side with the field researcher.
The only person that was worth listening to in the entire interview was Anne Stevenson Yang.
2 years now, hasn't collapse yet. I will come check again next year thanks lol.
Lee yeah me too
China study without any Chinese. Bravo.
As you can see, the gentlemen to the left of her where laughing at her in regards to how she reached her analysis. Just like I was telling people the china market will crash. From june-july 2015 they have lost $10 trillion in market cap.
Has chinese market crashed? Or u just an idiot ?
PROFITS BEFORE PEOPLE
They should go all home and take a shower. The room stinks of ___________ (put your word here).
Today is 6th sept 2017. Nothing happen
Hi there, just made aware we have already collapsed, we are still collpasing and will always be collapsing.
Shit, we managed to collapse again... I thought we collapsed 20 years ago... :(
This is Why Your 401k is taking a Pounding,
A hard landing? As in a hard moon landing?
yes, china hard landed yesterday, is hard landing today, and will be hard landing tomorrow.
They've had a century of revolution, and now economic prosperity;the Chinese people cannot distinguish this harsh difference which is why, China will collapse in the next few years.
Dr.N.
+A Artisan Well you are right it is not an African Nation, in which Africa is a rich nation in vast resources. And if you knew economics every corner of the globe effects china industrial capacity of Exports. When your breath smell like feet, that comes from sticking your foot in your mouth!!!
A Artisan China Exports is the bread winner, other then that, who they are going to sell merchandise to their main landed? China does not have a diverse economy
A Artisan where are you getting to your data statistics from China exports make up 50 percent of its GDP
+A Artisan Go to a reliable source, Wall street china exports, however I like the quid pro quo we are having
+A Artisan our government reliable about information to the public? as we all can see
US COMPANIES INVESTED THERE INSTEAD OF HERE FUCK THEM THEY ARE GETTING WHAT THEY DESERVE
When Japan lost the Escamo's shipment of fresh sea fish then they went to Chineese
Carp`!
Ha, ha, ha MrSvenovitch you're so funny. You turn this video on when you have trouble sleeping, is it because the speakers are boring or you get the peace of mind that China's economy is collapsing like I do. Anyway, thanks for making me laugh with your comment.
I can't believe the low quality of the comments- how about 'Truthseeker" wondering how debt can be 300 % of GDP. Who do they borrow it from he asks. Martians? They borrow it domestically- just like Japan.
Most of these comments are WAY out of their depth.
nick kelly I really like watching these kinds of videos on youtube but realized long ago that the comment section on videos like this are a joke. Most don't seem to have watched the video all the way through and then if they did they did not understand what they were watching. So you end up with a lot of nationalist comments about what country is the 'best' or a bunch of apocalyptic comments about looming disasters that are just around the corner.
People won't have so many decades. "China will collapse soon" has been raised by so many experts. economists, politician and Domesday Scholars. The first one said about it is a genius. One decade has gone since the first person said this. And then, two decades have gone. Three decades will be coming soon.
it's not funny at all at 28:28
Still collapsing 😂
I don't think anyone used the word "collapsing", however consider how china economy "recovered" from fat ass xi's lockdowns, things are certainly pretty bad.
China bashing or just playing faultless.
Ha Ha, its hard landing since last month
Yeah, China has been hard landing since last 30 years. Wait, no, actually last 5000 years. I think they will be fine. LOL
Venezuela is China's future.
China was never 5000 years old. It's just stupid state propaganda.
@@peterfireflylund Oh yeah? Your mama's twat told you so?
a wishy washy analysis by the panel
So did all your predictions come true? Perhaps, you 'experts' need a reality check.
post before getting locked in tiny apartments and have to get nose holes poked 3 times a day.
Hi,
The latest economic updates(Feb 2017) from China suggest the opposite is happening, i.e. China's GDP is on the up, turning the corner, furthermore the risk of collapse is unlikely.
As you can see all these experts can be wrong and more importantly they relied on data that not accurate or dependable. Most of their forecasts are just guessing.
Americans engaging in wishful thinking
perhaps hating while others getting better.
someone getting 'allah syndrom.
+SpicyHam they are jews.
HECHO EN CHINA
除了這位女士對中國有比較深入的了解以外，其他這幾個男的都是來混的！
old stuff rehashed by so-called 'experts'. try harder. lol!
Why is India today 5 times poorer per head than China and 8 times poorer than Russia, because India never had decades of Communism and that is just fact, a fact of history, not something you can dispute or debate, just a fact!
+English Grammar For centuries, India was ruled by the supreme Capitalist power, the homeland of Adam Smith, Britain. Since independence, India has been exclusively ruled by an evil coalition of right-wing capitalists and middle-class cultural-relativists and is now, unsurprisingly, 5 times poorer than Communist China.
Whatever new reforms they might be tempted to enact, they shouldn't be ones inspired by Capitalism or ones that undermine Communism.
"I'll take big government Communism, any day, over small government Capitalism", said McAfee hiding in boats and sleeping in ditches, in the tropical tax haven, and small government Capitalist, paradise of Belize.
THERE COMMUNIST BULL SHIT