Joseph Nye: The Rise of China and American Power
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- čas přidán 19. 08. 2012
- Joseph Nye of the Harvard Kennedy School of Government draws upon the insights of his recent meetings with China's future leaders to examine the future of American relations with China at Cambridge Forum. As China has become a more powerful player in the Pacific, how has it projected its strength? What does the Obama administration's new emphasis on the Pacific mean for the future of American relations with China? Moderated by "The World" host Lisa Mullins.
forum-network.org
This talk was taped on April 10, 2012.
I have a lot of problems with this speech, perhaps because I like Mearsheimer and would use his lexicon to describe Nye's speech as full of spin worthy of a bureaucrat. In particular, saying that the US isn't seeking a containment strategy and that "only China can contain China" bothered me. Nye really means that as long as China respects the US's claim to the world's oceans, China may do as it pleases.
Also, "developing the public good" sounds dubious to me. I think the US creates safe sea lanes for its own use first, and if others happen to benefit, that's fine, but the US record in Latin America shows that 'public good' is not high on the agenda.
Still, the idea that the US deserves blame for the Great Depression due to its lack of taking responsibility for being the biggest power is an interesting one. I'll have to think on that for a while.
+Babel Redeemed I have a problem with you, you're an idiot proper. you're educated in _idios_.
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the problem is this: if the fed decides to print more money, the value of u.s. dollars lessens...chinese leaders have acknowledged how troublesome this is. the fact is, it is difficult to see who is more powerful: the debtor, or the banker? both need each other...
In the western world, people have healthcare, high pay. So when it is taken away from them, protests occurs. But in a developing country, it doesn't work the same. Inequality is the norm for developing countries. When people see things get better. They have hope.
'The rule of law and justice are just that': the rule of law and justice! Freedom is something different than those two. Freedom is being able to say and write anything you want without worrying that you offended your government. Freedom is being able to have as many children as you want. Freedom is being able to go on the internet and search for anything you want, and very likely finding it. Freedom is being able criticize your government, being free to burn your own flag.
Educational and great video.
Freedom is for those who want problems down the road.
Its 6 years since Mr Nye made these remarks. It would be interesting to see how his views have evolved over this time.
Three years on from your comment, I don't think he'd say anything different: in fact, his comments are more relevant now, in 2021: we do need cooperation with China on finance, climate and pandemics (the current Covid pandemic won't be the last). Listen to what he says, eg at 38:00: "if China acts as a bully, it will create a reaction, and that reaction will ask for more an American presence" - that’s precisely where we are today. The questions today about US reliability, both as a result of Trump and the chaotic withdrawal from Kabul, reflects exactly that instinctive need for American presence.
Saw this video in 2013; very useful to come back to it after these years.
Chinese people are independent thinkers. we can co-exist independently of Western paradigms. Nor do we need western technology to survive except in the area of military, which was due to the poor governance of the Ming and Qing dynasties.
thoses best courses are not easy do donwload or wacht on line why?
they are very good
please have it on line for people to be able to downlaod it please
continuity perhaps better represent what i meant earlier instead of consistency...Chinese will come with their own socio-political structure that seek a balance between need for representation of the people, efficiency, consistency and continuity...
actually, we can never be sure of what is gonna happen, and we can only think what will likely happen, mashed with our own personal feelings...
it's only natural that we have certain bias mixed in our analysis as we are man with feelings and emotions and it's almost impossible to be completely void of them...
sometimes, our feelings could lead to self fulfilling prophecy but often, they aren't enough to shape things according to our will and it takes much more than just personal feelings to forge our will.....
no, the inequality problem in China is not worse than the US. China is a developing country. It is normal for developing countries to go from poor to rich unevenlly. You have 1 percent owning 99 percent of the wealth. Your corruption/lobbying is so pervasive that they are now the official government! For a developed economy, that is not normal. You would have to be extremely fascist to accomplish that, and to owe the most money in human history without shame. The US is the force that is trying to "contain" others from growth. Without the US, the world would grow peacefully.
Well, it's a human right to be able to choose who should be your leader. If you think otherwise, then you're depriving yourself and others of a standard human right.
actually, leaders are already chosen by those in power and riches for u to 'choose' if u really think u can choose freely...
one more thing. If you ask a Chinese person where they are in its military. They will always say they are 30 years behind the US. If you ask them if they have problems, they will always say yes and exaggerate the problem. Year after year, people have been saying China's problems will cause it to collaspe. It turned out to be wrong year after year.
How is it that you're here in the first place? Your "experienced, able and competent" leaders have blocked youtube ;)
(continued) they are bringing in a lot of Authoritarian measures. You can;t deny reality, and the reality is that freedom causes more problems than it solves if it is applied to lavishly.
It is called international exchange programs.
Anyway, do you know why they did it?
Two reasons, one is economic the other is political. By blocking western sites it gives a chance for Chinese sites to start up and coin the Chinese market and the other is it means no foreign anti-Chinese forces can subvert the state.
I would say that is extremely competent.
correct...as a matter of fact, it will make american exports more attractive...
The size does not tell the whole story
The US navy is most certainly not at its smallest. It will be several decades before China catches up with Chinese naval power. China has ONE aircraft carrier: The US has ELEVEN CARRIER GROUPS...This is a huge disparity. Certain segments of Japanese society want the US to leave Okinawa, but most Japanese politicians understand the necessity of having the US there to balance China's rising power.
Difficult to think of a country which doesn't take freedoms from the people when it has problems for various reasons.
Also, any countries government which has fallen falls precisely because it didn't have enough control.
China is not a dead pool of water, she will and has no choice but to transform its political system to a semi-democracy...People would have much greater say in the leadership of the country but leaders would not be totally decided by simple majority vote. Chinese will come with their own socio-political structure that seek a balance between need for representation of the people, efficiency and consistency....
Never come with the assumption that western style democracy is the best way to supremacy because the game hasn't ended yet and is far from ending...Things will almost certainly develop utterly out of your expectation...
very smart, Yi Jiun.
Koko Stillwell Thank you for your compliment, if you are truly sincere. :)
I lived in Guangzhou for 2,5 years...My sister is married to a former Chinese communist party functionary...I know a bit about China.
why would anyone want Google in their country?
Keep up with the world so they have to chase you talk about you
China's relationship with Korea and Japan?
Even Great Britain recognised the Might of Russia ! Who doesn't ? 😎 Princess Anne and the British delegation are in Russia to comemorate the Artic Weapons Convoy during the WW11, 75 anniversary!
due to the one-child policy and due to the fact that labor from the countryside is declining, the chinese workforce will soon begin to decline. already chinese leaders are trying to deal with the ramification of this. at some point, china will need to find ways to support hundreds of millions of elderly...this is a massive structural problem.
Why would I believe in Democracy?
Expect changes in China in the near future. No one-party state survives the ten years after hosting an Olympics - just ask the residents of Berlin, Moscow and Sarajevo.
Let's just hope the powers-that-be in Beijing will make it a smooth regime change.
I predict that you will eat crow in 4 years time.
Of course, the US is still the super power that is 100 years advanced than China. Its nowadays status to China is more like a 45 years-old grown-up to a 10-year-old who walks a bit fast behind him. No need to fear. Just be a gentleman and embracing others' development. Collaboration is more constructive than competition, which can make the world peaceful.
Chinese people save 50% of their salary or income while US citizens don't. The economic consequence is obvious..
that is what you beleive. I lived there and none of those problems are problems that would collaspe China. USA has problems that will collaspe the US. By comparison, China's government enjoys favourable ratings. The problems described there are mostly problems that a developing nation would have. What do you expect, a poor country to suddenly have equal salary and healthcare?
"there [is] no such thing as human rights. ethics is balderdash. each Star must go on its own orbit. to hell with "moral principle"; there is no such thing."
- Aleister Crowley
Hello Professor, I'm a Chinese and I have 2 questions.
Q1: China not a superpower, China still a developing country, we don't wanna be NO.1 in the world, we don't even want to be NO.2, Why? Because US can destroy China hundred times by nuclear missile, I’m scared, ya know I’m really scared. But we don't have to destroy US hundred times, only once (one time) that’s enough. Therefore we don't have to keep so much nuclear missile like you do! So what’s make of you think that the Chinese want to be No.1 in the world? Thank you!
Q2: Japan claim that they can destroy all the Chinese navy ships within 3 days, that's nice, but we can erase Japan from the earth with in 3 mins just like the way you did before! We never attack anyone first but we will counterattack when someone attack on us! We fighting in our territories, for our motherland, we don’t fear to die! So what are you fighting for? Do you fear to die? What’s make of you think that the Chinese are scared of American if American attack on China? Thank you!
+Andy Zhao Japan can do that. They did it before and they can do it again. They are blood thirsty people. Their ambition was to have a great empire equal to that of Uk and they wanted to own China so that they may achieve that purpose.
honestly, Japan can not at least 20 years without support of other country like US, since Japan does not have enough of its own military industry. So, do not worry my friend. China only can beat China. If China is not collapsed by itself, no one can beat China.
Try to be a super power but China does not want. IUS does not need to have any regional power in Asia. He wants to have global market which China is.
Andy Zhao , every state seeks power, the more the better. The US doesn't want war with China either, deterrence didn't die with the Soviet Union and it's not the end of history.
China is obviously much stronger than Japan but you can't underestimate them either, when the US used nuclear weapons on Japan, no one else had them, there was no threat of retaliation. Today is obviously very different, using nuclear weapons is unthinkable and very unlikely to happen. I do disagree with you on the point you make about China using force only when provoked, China is like any other state and behave aggressively with power. Realists don't buy the Confucianism myth.
wishful thinking is always good when you have nothing else to resort to.
I am not saying that China will collapse. China as a strong will and will become more powerful as time goes by. But I am saying that China has some very challenges ahead that are going to be extremely difficult to overcome. The US also has some very tough challenges. You seem not to understand that the US has faced greater challenges in the past. The end for the US is certainly not near. In fact, both the US and China suffer from US debt. When the US prints money, China loses...
There are numbers of mistakes with this academic person. First, he assumes China has to have the same GDP/capita to be as strong as the US. No, 300 million of Chinese making 40,000 would be enough . China would still have a large work force when that happens. They are already buying more Ferraris than anyone. PPP is more accurate than nominal GDP which is only the total economy divided by population. It is just an estimate and not reality.
secondly, US economy is running on the highest debt in human history. China has loaned more money to nations in human history. The two are polar opposites. Who is richer? A Chinese man selling noodles and making a living with no debt or an American who can pay his mortgage? On the surface, the american looks richer..but hey the noodle guy got lots of people oweing him money. Chinese guy is much much richer.
boo...you're not listening...the man has been using quite a lot of data...even if he weren't quoting data in this speech, he doesn't need to: this is a discussion about his research, which can be found in his books...anyway, he's quoting goldman sachs, the world bank, the economist, the rand corporation, etc...pay attention.
it's not wishful thinking: it's critical thinking. certainly the u.s. has lost relative power to china, but china also has it's problems, deep structural problems that its own leaders have admitted to. in short, the future is far from certain from either country. even as china seeks to develop its military, the u.s. is reorienting its foreign policy to focus more on 'smart', or, the combination of hard and soft power. no, mi amigo, nationalism has blinded you...i see my country's flaws perfectly
You just dont know CHINA use your passport to see it for yourself.
The problem with America is its political system.
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Chinese people are not cattle.
As for being like children I believe that a good government should be like a good parent if that is what you mean.
Paternalistic government is a strong current in Chinese political history and culture right back to Confucius.
As for thinking outside of the box, Chinese are known for being hard-workers and we get the job done and are very logical. It brings us our own advantages.
nationalism has blinded me? I am from Taiwan. I served in the military. I am a US ally. I tell you this because with all the money you spend. Your navy is now at its smallest. Watch "Forbes on China surpassing US naval size". US navy do not have power anymore over here. It is desparately trying to hang on to Okinawa base. The Japanese want you out so you forced them to create a island dispute with Taiwan and China.
How am I doing? Just like Daddy? Yours or mine? I think yours has a more hissing quality no? Why don't you slither over to him and ask him what he thinks?
Màny Russian trolls and agents are writing comments here.
How am I doing? Just like Daddy? Mine or yours? I think yours would have a more hissing quality no? Why don't you slither over and ask him what he thinks?
Laern a lot.
No need for ad hominem attacks...I'm sorry, man. I don't know where you get your information about the US. Nobody listens? Are you kidding me? The American problem isn't that the politicians don't listen; the problem is that Americans don't speak up enough. You know, I've lived all over the world, including China. You, my friend, have a very bizarre view of the US. Unless you've lived here, you really have no idea what life is like.
This guy is naive.
in fact, already in africa, many nations certainly are thankful for chinese investment. but recently, there has been pushback towards chinese policy in africa, which has caused resentment among african nationals. no, not every nation agrees with its handsoff diplomacy. we will soon see the backlash of chinese interference in politics in africa soon.
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