Eurovision's Biggest Hot Streaks and Cold Streaks
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- čas přidán 22. 04. 2024
- Is Germany suffering through the biggest slump in Eurovision history? Is Sweden's current dominance without equal? Will people comment if I confuse England and the UK (yes). We crunched the numbers to find out, and here's the spreadsheet to prove it:
oti.link/streaks-spreadsheet
Actual data starts at 11:18.
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Overthinking It subjects the popular culture to a level of scrutiny it probably doesn't deserve.
www.overthinkingit.com/ - Zábava
I finally see Eurovision through the eyes of my accountant.
😂😂😂👍
Admittedly the first eleven minutes were a slog. But if you persist, you’ll be rewarded with diagrams.
There is one major problem with the spreadsheet, it doesn't really take into account the previous year's winner autoqualifying for the finals, they are getting treated as if they got to the finals through semi finals and placed whatever they did instead of rating them the same way as the big 5.
Ooh that’s a good point! Could probably tweak the formulas accordingly.
For future updates, Australia would also need a similar treatment as they got a guaranteed final in 2015 since that was the year they got invited. It's why that final has 27 members instead
@@gammaray004and the automatic qualifiers of the single semifinal systems
I've updated the spreadsheet with these changes if you're interested in seeing the results! The only noticeable change I saw is that Azerbaijan now has the 5th best 10-year average at 0.833 from 2008-2015, knocking Spain off the list. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZmksC0n4QA9FZaYe5FrLLnnJ1S-s9wSCJm3iEMJICcA/edit?usp=sharing
And then there's 2004-2007 where not just the winner, but the best 10 placing entries not among the big 4 the previous year were automatically qualified for the final
metrics and numbers were not confusing at all, rubic cube kid was
Even sub titles didn't help 😅😂
I watched at 2x playback speed during the metrics explanation, but gladly slowed down for the Rubic's cube bits. The chocolate review was a bonus!
it's me, im the person who loves eurovision and venn-diagrams, and statistics and rubiks cubes.
Also "sorry it's hard to do, cause like it's hard to do, so like whatever" are words I intend to live by
That should be another motivational poster.
I think the reason why the UK and Ireland were doing so great in the past is because of the language rules. The competition was also less diverse musically back then so the prettiest ballad usually won. (Not to say there aren't exceptions to this rule - my favourite winner of all time is from 1995 - but that was often the case)
Agree about the language rule thing, but IMO it wasn't the case that "the prettiest ballad usually won" - so many winners of 80's and 90's are not that pretty, even if ballads ;), and most are deadly boring, ballads or not, like 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994... (OTOH, 1996 is one of my all-time favorite winners, such a medieval vibe!)
@@florenna Yeah, that's kind of what I meant with my initial comment. Anglophones had an advantage. I think I may have worded it awkwardly as a non-native speaker, but when I said that the prettiest ballad usually won I meant the mechanism of the competition rather than the quality of the winners. I agree that a lot of them are dull.
'96 was the year Ireland's "The Voice" won, right? It's a solid winner for the era even though it doesn't hold a candle to "Nocturne" the year before it. To be fair, no ESC song before or since does.
Nah, ballads are not that common from the 80s and onwards. Except from Ireland maybe :) And from 97, it's like only eastern european nations get away with it (Serbia, Ukraine etc.). The show has evolved into more of a party contest, so slow-paced "boring" entries generally don't do well lately. There ARE exceptions, but they are few and far between. And I would say that this is due to the public vote favouring party songs. IMO, Nocturne isn't really a song. It's more of an instrumental. But it IS unique. Actual best song+performance probably goes to Italy's Zitti e Buoni. It's easy to write off as "just being rock", but the arrangement is close to perfect, with an almost AI calculated time for each part of the song. Every band member and instrument get their due, and the connection with the audience is insane. My 2c.
@@johns70 Well, we're primarily talking about 80s and 90s so I don't see how your reply contradicts mine.
Yes, we, Easterners, get away with balladry but it's because Western ballads are legitimately boring almost all the time. When Portugal sent "Amar Pelos Dois" (a legitimately great ballad) they won. The Netherlands had succeeded many times with slow jams like "Arcade" or "Birds". It's not because the public never votes for ballads, it's because we don't vote for boredom. Not to say all entries the audience slams are bad - Hell, Norway this year was fantastic. However, the 3-minute cut killed the climax of the original 5-minute version. Well, I'm off-topic. What I mean is: most ballads aren't that good and it's easier to redeem a mediocre party song with good staging. A ballad must stand on its own merit to succeed unless we talk about some crazy vocal shenanigans that can compensate for weak songwriting.
Personally, I'm not a fan of "Zittie e Buoni". It's a rock song by the numbers which is always dull. If we're talking about heavy entries I've been smitten with Ireland this year. I really liked "Vizlat Nyar" back in the day. Hatari went hard even though they're obviously not metal.
Generally, the televote rewards well-staged originality. Yes, it can kill an artsy entry but if the staging is really well-done then stuff the juries would slander comes through.
Am I off-topic again? What I'm saying is, the ballads themselves are at fault for no one liking them. But I get your point of view. Have a good day!
@@zhenia2511 hey, it really doesn’t. You are correct in that staging can save a mediocre party song, but less so if the ballad is sub-par. It is always hard to predict what the public vote will promote (like, for example I found “Tattoo” boring asf), and it still got like 3rd place. Same with a lot of other Italian entries (like Brividi). Songs like Cha cha cha and Rim Tim Tagi Dim are obvious. But even there it can be difficult. It is easy to step past the balance to parody, like the Estonian entry this year, and see your votes disappear.
Zitti e Buoni is very much a rock song by the numbers, but the arrangement is done with perfection, which I appreciate. Most rock entries get lost somewhere in the translation to Eurovision. I thought Hatari was awful, and even Lordi’s number wasn’t great, although in that case you can safely say staging mattered…
Today you need someone who can not only sing a ballad (as every version of a ballad has already been tried). You need someone with extreme connection with the audience. In recent years, Cornelia Jakobs comes to mind. Or, you need someone with a very powerful internal presence, that they are able to emote, like Salvador Sobral and Duncan Laurence. Jamala and Marija Serifivic are in this category too. Maybe this is where the line to “boring” is drawn.
Finally, the nerd shit eurofans have been waiting for :D
Exactly !
Not really 😅 We're not all nerds... Unless weird interest in ESC counts. ;) But I hate maths with gusto 😆 I'm a linguist after all!
The language rule seems like it really helped France, Britian and Ireland specifically. I say this based on the abyss they seemed to find themselves in from 1999 onward when EBU skipped that rule.
True, but Malta continued to frequently place in the top 10 even after the language rule ended. I wonder if it was the switch to televote or the lack of orchestra that caused the UK to fall. Perhaps it was all three factors combined.
@@ChippewaValleyUrbanisti mean Malta only did it in the very weak early 2000s, proceeded to get second to last in 2003, recovered in 2005 but then got dead auto qualifying last in 2006 and then proceeded to just kinda be whatever
Language Rule AND Big 5 Rule is what the UK brought to Fall.
My brain kinda hurts, but I gotta appreciate the work put on this one. Thank you!
I claim the right to complain! Thats an important Accomplishment for us germans, especially against the british, our dear brothers and sisters in the art of complaining...
Firstly, i never heard about the UK as being good at complaining.
For goodness sake, their watercompanies are privatised & polluting their rivers, lakes & seashores with sh.. shocking amounts of excrement! And they are doing _nothing_ ...
Keep calm & carry on. Just keep on queueueueueueuing folks!
(never been so happy we had Michel Barnier!)
No, then the French. They claim to be the best at complaining.
I'm not so sure, it seems to devolve into rioting quite quickly.
Us Dutchies on the other hand are masters at complaining.
It got us a country, a watersystem that's second to none & the best bicycle infrastructure on this planet. Though i'd say it could & *should* be better, it's just the rest of the world that's not keeping up.
I'm even here now, complaining about your complaining, complain-inception.
Come on, you Germans are reserve* or mountain Dutchies, get a little better at complaining & install some bike paths.
As the country where the first bicycle was invented you should show a bit more pride in it.
Complain about the NDR, complain that Raab should run the National Finals. People complaining about NL @ ESC made us change from the longest NQ-streak in ESC history to a Eurovision powerhouse. Imagine what you can do when you complain properly, using the proper channels. Organise a protest outside NDR headquarters or something.
* simply the inverse of reserve or swamp Germans
You're certainly going beyond what I ever imagined doing with eurovision statistics. It's awesome.
Something I've learned from this is that Norway proved you can change for the better, and tbh, I'm so proud of my country for that😆
You know how to spell "change for the better" in norwegian?... "Oil" ;) :*
@BopToTheSkyBaby - Ditto for Finland, in recent years :D Since 2021, to be exact, but as it's only the recent years, it doesn't yet figure in most statistics, like these 10-year averages 😅
And then they got the last place over again it's crazy Europe probably slept on that song 😢😢😢😢
Great maths! Well done
I believe that an even clearer indication of vote tampering during Azerbaijans hot streak shows if you look at how many points certain individual countries gave them during that period. In several instances you could see seemingly random countries without any cultural ties to Azerbaijan consistently giving them high scores. If I remember correctly, Malta was the most blatant example, having a several year long streak giving them top marks. The year after the voting allegations emerged, those voting patterns disappeared almost instantly.
You guys have regained my support after the clarifications regarding Azerbaijan.
This is an epic showdown between Romantic intuition, as represented by youth, and Enlightenment rationalism, as associated with experience. The director uses ironic juxtapositions: the sterile plasticity of a Rubik's Cube with the solver's fluid approach, the light-heartedness of pop music with the relentlessness of numeric classification. The climactic cry of "Dad, why'd you put me in the most boring video?" symbolizes the eternal rebellion of one generation against another. It is positively Turgenevian, or would be if I had ever read any Turgenev. In conclusion, douze points to Alex.
So much work into your videos and you bring them so often!!! Brilliant, big admirer!!!
Hey! I'm really in the center of the Venn Diagram of nerds into eurovision, so loved this!
Just an idea, maybe naive. It seems a bit abrupt to consider a 10 year rolling average. It makes sense that a result from 10 years ago stops being relevant, but 2012 disappearing all of a sudden in 2023 is still abrupt. How about a "weighted" rolling average? For example: now, 2023 counts 40%, 2022 counts 25%, 2021 counts 20%..., 2013 counts 5%.
It could make things smoother I guess
Totalmente de acuerdo, creo que el promedio móvil ponderado daría mejores resultados
The amount of work that had to go into this is crazy. Great job!
Also! I just noticed that Georgia is missing from the spreadsheet. Georgia actually has the 4th lowest 5-year average with an average scaled score of 0.104 from 2018-2023. Georgia also had their worst 10-year average in 2023. Hope this helps!!
Wow guys
You rock!
Thanks
This is brilliant, a very well put together and in depth way to properly rank countries at Eurovision. Well done lads! Looking forward to your field day with this year's results
Omg i love you ive been trying to figure this out for months
ngl this level of analysis with eurovision stats is what I did for my coursework in the IB, so this made a lot of sense! This is what I love about eurovision!
I sadly have to go to work so i can't finish the video yet but this is gold. Matt's son made me laugh. This is exactly the kind of statistical model i would have tried to create if i was given the same task. 😂
Wow! This is next level ‘Overthinking Eurovision’. Fantastic video team as always. 😊🤯❤
Maybe we should send the NDR this video so they might finally see the light and consider changing something in the song selection process. Haha, just joking...
Really nice video, you guys! I have spent way too much time considering formulas to be able to compare Eurovision results between varying circumstances, and have come up with a couple of suggestions that make your’s seem slightly too simplistic. (Yes, I know, I’m likely insane and even have the papers to prove it from my psychiatrist.) Nobody has been willing to discuss this with me, however, so if producer-Matt ever feels like refining his models further I’m definitely up for that conversation!
Loved the interposed kid sections. Lightened the heavy stats right up and was also very cute :)
That said, it'll be interesting to see what changes in the stats this year's competition will bear out...
Great video!
Immediately subscribed!
I saw another channel fix the big 5 problem really nicely. If a big 5 country beat any non big 5 country their perecentage would be out of everyone, but if they were last (or only had other big 5 nations below them) it would be out of how many countries there were in that semi
EDIT: Could also fix the problems with winners auto qualifying and australia 2015 btw
This is amazing
Hey Overthinking it. Love your videos, I always find them intriguing for how deep you go into topics, great for adding to my trivia knowledge.
One aspect of Eurovision I've always been fascinated by is the backing singers. They've historically played an important part of performances, adding depth and harmony to the lead vocals. But overtime, theyve been gradually sidelined in favour of more focus on the lead and backing dancers. Starting in 2015, when thet weren't required to be on stage, and then in 2021 when they weren't required to be live anymore. By not requiring live backing singers at all its less likely you get cases in the past where artists started as a backing singer before becoming a lead singer (Hera Bjork, 🇮🇸).
Could you do a breakdown of backing singers history please as well as there statistical importance in doing well in recent contests. Is it better to have them live on-stage, off-stage or pre-recorded.
Thanks, keep up the good work
Had to focus, not used to that, but it was worth it!
Very very very interesting!
Great video, as a data nerd, this is right up my alley!
Though for future reference, the Norwegian broadcaster is NRK (Norsk Rikskringkasting = "Norwegian State Broadcasting"). If you put in a P instead of an R you get Norsk Pikskringkasting - don't google translate that. Or it could be Nynorsk Pressekontor which would be a whole other thing entirely, and if they were in charge, we would probably see more contributions like this year's Gåte every year.
I just love-love-love numbers, thanks for this great vid.
But then what exactly am I doing here on a music -elated channel???
Because all this is important information :)
@@Piia2023 😂
Honestly, I don't follow Eurovision. I just come here to see your fantastic audio work. Doing great!
Don’t know what others are talking about. I followed every word of the data crunching. Makes sense!
I love to see another channel that finally looks at eurovision placings fairly!! The system explained is almost perfect (I think my own was practically the same in 2021) but since then I've found some other ways to improve it:
- for big 5 countries (or any other automatic qualifiers) you only set the amount of participants as the amount of finalists if the only countries they placed above were also AQs. It feels strange for example to consider France 2021 as 2/26 instead of 2/39 when Europe considered them better on the night than countries that got through the semis. This way every country is out of the full contest apart from the few AQs typically at the bottom of the final.
- considering average points received per country definitely makes more sense than just points overall, but it still creates some injustices- if you were casting these points among 16 countries then it would be much more likely to score points, and less likely to be in someone's top 10 in a final of 26. I go into explaining my system that fixes this problem in this video, although for semi final nqs it only really results in a few minor switch arounds:
czcams.com/video/4p7fAi0fg7w/video.htmlsi=p2SBltU97dYuhfVj
- also a pretty small one but for any tie (e.g. joint 2nd) that country's placing is considered as the average of the places they occupy (e.g. 2.5) before applying this to the scaled formula. As the 4 1st places in 1969 are all official winners, this doesn't apply to them.
I came to this video expecting to see The Netherlands considering their 8-year streak of not making it to the final, but I had not considered the placements in the actual semi-finals. Great video, thanks!
I work in data processing and visualisation, so I loved hearing about your methodology 😂 I've thought about how to equalize the data over the years before, and I think your system is very well thought out. Though I do miss differentiating between a narrow win and a landslide. I think if you only take the finals data, you could do a % of total points won, to see over the years who won the biggest, what years were very close (1969 comes to mind ;) ). A different set of data, but also quite interesting I'd say
Hey folks, great video! Thanks for such a thorough analysis :) Just had a look at the data and noticed that cell BX68 (Italy's 2021 scaled score) is missing a formula. Just wanted to point that out so it can be updated ^^
My little data analyst heart is so happy
I like to think that a big 5 country/auto qualifier would have got through the semis if they beat a non auto qualifying country in the final. If you have a cluster of autos from 23-26 you know they probably would have nqd if they had to compete in semis, if you have one in 15th above a bunch of balkans they deserved to be in the final
Happy 20.1K plus subs!
Love this ❤ fantastic video 🎉 How did you accomodate for the host country’s into these results especially if they are not part of the big 5
We need something similar to analyze countries' jury votes points vs. telecast votes points each year.
Congratulations overthinkers for this impressive work 👏🏼
The way you explained your method is absolutely fantastic, it should be taught in schools!
I like the simple way you chose to deal with the “big 5” problem.
Alex is a real star ⭐️
But I need to point out that I disagree with the way the points are calculated for the non qualified countries. For the countries with high points, more countries lead to more points due to more total points awarded (as you correctly say). But for the countries with low points, which are the ones we care about since they didn’t make it to the final, more countries lead to higher possibilities of low or no points due to increased competition. Thus your method is not fair for the countries in semifinals with more countries.
Math! yay
One small thing I thought about while watching though: comparing points received per participating country is skewed too, just in the other direction, eg. getting one point from everyone on average is bad with 11 countries participating but impressive with 100. Admittedly, the difference is probably smaller than with just comparing points received. I just found it funny because you were specifically using it to compare semifinals with different participant numbers.
Now I can back up my jokes about Germany with maths! Thank you!
As a stats lover, this is a gift
i did watch all this. it took 8 hours cos i needed to take pauses, but i did it! I also need to say that I did not like how you use map from 1917 (or earlier) as backdrop from you scoreboard.
Statistics? Yes ! I enjoyed this video way more than I might admit ;-)
It might not tell the whole thing though in the bad streak compartment, because in some period countries could not participate the next year if their result was too bad, but that wouldn't be taken into account in 10 year streaks because a countries couldn't have made 8 participations (except the big five). I know this especially because my country Belgium literally played pingpong around the 2000's because we did so badly, but we don't show up in the 10 year bad streaks, but do in the 4 year one which was 2009 where semi-finals existed.
This is no criticism though, just a fact that's not able to show up in statistics that I happen to know about.
Some other CZcamsr uses a system which compares the Big 5/host countries to just the finalists if they finish last or only above other autoqualifiers. But if Big 5/host beats at least one semifinalist in the final, they get compared with all the countries including the ones that didn't get through semifinals.
For example, France 2022 ranked 24/25 as they only beat Germany in the final. But UK 2018 was 24/42 as they beat Finland (qualifier) in addition to Portugal (host).
4th Edition D&D was probably not the right edition of D&D to use an example, but I appreciate the joke and the data analysis. Great work guys!
I Googled “most complicated D&D edition” or something, what would you have gone with? Myself, I haven’t played since I was a teenager but fond memories of getting wrecked by a Beholder. -MB
@@overthinkingit Depending on what you mean by complexity, my first answer is probably 3.0 3.5 in terms of integrated systems that rely on knowing how most of them work to get really good results, 4e definitely had a more complex tactical component, putting much more emphasis on positioning and conditions. In the end, all versions of D&D are complex to some degree or another, and its the appearance of complexity to the nascent player that gives each version its reputation.
Your math teacher would be so proud... :D
Your scaled score is based off what is called the "Cumulative Frequency"
I found a mistake. You didn't take into account that the hosting country (e.g. Denmark 2014, Austria 2015) is like a big 5 in that year. Austria 2015 came last with 0 points, but you give it a score of .359
Good catch. Will update when I can.
18:03 Wouldn't the same also be true for Australia since they debuted in 2015, making 2023 their 8th participation (not including 2020)?
I like data!
Nemo - the most neutral human from Switzerland?
Is that Alasdair Beckett-King on Alex'es t-shirt?
It’s a Space Man inspired design. He’s a big Sam Ryder fan!
It’s Sam rider from 2022
I just know you're leaving Nebulossa for the end cause you have SO much to say about it
I’d love to see a weighted version of this to highlight feeling. Coming 25/26 is not really any better than 26/26. The exception is when you get nil points. Similarly winning does have a much higher impact than 2nd place but 2nd>4th there isn’t much of a feeling difference.
I know that doesn’t measure performance better than what you’ve done here but I think it could highlight how countries feel they are doing more clearly.
Random unfounded 4E slam out of nowhere, 4E best E. :)
As a nerd who loves graphs (and Eurovision since I became a fan last year), this video was incredible to watch ! I'm so glad I discovered your channel this year.
Thank you for always having interesting things to say about stuff for which I never think there's anything interesting to say (I have no idea whether this sentence makes sense in english, but you get the idea, I guess ?)
ein Beitrag des Montages, 13. Mai 2024
Deutschlands interner Wettbewerb könnte geändert werden!
In der 1. Phase könnten die Zuschauer und/oder Zühörer Rangfolgen der Lieder erstellen.
In der 2. Phase kämen 25 Lieder in das Erste Deutscher Fernsehen, an dem Karnevalssonnabend.
Der Gewinner nimmt auf der Europaebene teil.
Was wäre mit einem vergleichbaren europaweiten Wettbewerb der privaten Rundfunkanstalten?
Question If I wanted to see how a country's result in Eurovision 2024 (say for Example Italy coming last in the Grand Final this year with 0 Points) Could I add a row and add in this example Italys Results and the spreadsheet will work the same or would I have to change either the code or Formula (or maybe even both) by the way I'm not saying I dont like Italy this year or I think it will do badly because in both cases the opposite it true I like Italys song and I think it will do well that was just a hypothetical change I could want to make if I wanted to see how it would impact Italys stats.
Also speaking of Italy I have noticed 2 things that do well in Eurovision that Italy (and Sweden) do very well but Im not sure if its just im my head or if there is something to it that is when your National Final (I know calling Sanremo a National Final is controversial but I will ignore that because for the purposes of this calling it a National Final is a good enough term for it) is bigger than Eurovision itself (in the country the National Final is selecting for) it does well in Eurovision my theory for this is the song is selected because the country it represents loves the song. Which leads into my 2nd thing that does well at Eurovision. When a country loves the song that represents the Country it does better in Eurovision than a song that the country doesn't even like despite the fact that a country can not vote for itself.
The second point is easy to answer imo, why should 160 million of people vote a song that is not even appreciated in such a wide audience like Sanremo one? Don't forget that the final of Sanremo has been watched and voted this year by 14 millions of people in average, which in numbers is more than the whole population of countries like Belgium and Czechia. This along with the extreme competition and the fact that the biggest artists of the Italian panorama are racing for the gold already shapes a competitive song that is somehow adequate for a bigger song contest.
4:16 But but but-- what IS The Algorithm, Alex???? 😲
I fully expected Alex to be a grown man. Sorry Matt… 😆
I'd say if uk and germany were competing in semis each year, their stats would have gone up significantly. It's just the fact that they are automatically competing with stronger songs that have already proven to be better than 5-6 songs from the semi they have qualified from
Also prior to this year big5 only had to perform once while others performed twice over the course of the week, not to mention that someone on Reddit has discovered, that in the finals national juries usually give points to songs that we have competed with them in the same semifinal!
That kid is hillarious,yall should have him on more often
That was cool, although I have to point out that big 5 nations are disadvantaged, probably explaining why they „dominate“ the worst streak category.
If they finish last, they get a 0 but maybe they would have beaten a couple of the weaker songs in the semi finals, giving them a score still low but not flat 0. Also a, lets say, 4th place, where we can safely assume that they would have qualified anyway is worth less for big 5 nations. In a final of 26, with 38 participants in general they get a score of 0.88, while a nation that has to compete in the semi final gets a score of 0.919 for 4th place, despite common sense says the results are equal.
I don’t see a way to account fairly for that, so just keep it in mind
Wow!!
As a Czech, I wheezed. We always have something special 😅
Harold Kreis: "The Slovaks ... checked ... !" :)
Damn to 11 mins 18 seconds I lost because I didn't see "Actual data starts at 11:18."
But if the UK and Denmark tied in 10th place in the grand final with the same score, they should have the same scaled score. The Big 5 (and host) handicap should only be applied where they don't beat any qualifiers in the final.
But still, in this case the UK would have beaten 20+ countries in the final only, whereas Denmark would have beaten 30+ countries since it had to participate in the semi finals.
@trildi That doesn't matter because the UK wound have the same score I.e. nominally also beating those semi competitors, and judged equally with Denmark.
14:04 The Fragmentation of the German broadcasting system might be part of the problem. But it is important to know two things: These "regional" Station aren't t even exceptionally small on their own, WDR alone has an designated reach of over 17 million people (North-rhine-westphalia) that's more than most participating eurovision nations. Second: These Stations are part of the ARD group, it is possible to cooperate, with each other under the umbrella of ARD, If, and only If the Stations decide to... I am under the impression, that there isn't much interest for the ESC, except for the grand finale.
In my opinion, the fragmentation of the German broadcasting system could also be the solution to the problem. Each of the nine local broadcasters should nominate a candidate to the national final. They can decide how: internal selection, casting show, online voting, Bundeslandfinale, whatever. Let them compete against each other.
I like the idea, especially If every Station could decide the way how to determine they own candidates, that already allows for a much broader, more diverse selection, but at the Moment every meaningful Change is welcome.
And even then it’s still not perfect because every semifinal had a different qualitative field, a different set of voters and effectively had one country been in another semifinal - the result would have been entirely different. So there you go 😅
Sorry to break it to you but Eurovisionworld already calculated the semi position thing for every non-qualifying country for every single year haha
can you do the math for results by running order? like analyse how bad 2nd slot actually is
Why is Australia is missing from the results sheet?
It's not anymore. Thanks.
I don't think anything says "I'm in it to win it" quite like Azerbaijan's first 5 years at Eurovision... They placed 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th - not in that order of course but like, DAMN! :D
Why isn't Georgia included in the spreadsheet?
Instructions unclear, there’s chocolate in my diagrams…
any plans to update the spreadsheet after Eurovision 2024? As a dane it feels like we're about to hit a new 5 year low, and it would be interesting to see whether I'm correct
Don't be sad Czechia was always the last during the days we even didn't try at all (2007-2009) and now when we finally try and work out on our success we're still not able to qualify 3 years in a row.... 😢 you ended up 12th right behind us.... you will make it and will be better one day again. ❤
I'm not sad just interested, we haven't managed to qualify for the last 4 years, and most of the years I've expected not to qualify
If you are not yet members of Mensa, the high-IQ society, you should definitely apply for an admission test!
i thinkt= the big 5 should get a score of 0 if they get last or if they only do better than other top 5 nations because otherwise they beat a nation but still get a lower score even though theyd also make the finals
I always wonder what would happen if Germany sent someone who was actually famous before the contest like, say, Peter Fox. But anyone who's already popular probably didn't want to risk their reputation.
Who's Peter Fox...? Never heard, so doesn't seem very famous ;D
Didn't they do that with Cascada, she flopped
Not trying to burst your statistic, but how do you fit the rest of the world vote in count added this year?
the RotW is basically just one more voting country.
If you don't have a giant self made Eurovision spreadsheet, can you even call yourself a Eurovision fan?
Statistics and Eurovision! What a mix! I think I can convince at once my husband, statistics and maths freak to get interested in Eurovision . Thanks!!! 😅 ( great videos by the way, for sure a lot of work to do, and I hope fun ❤)
Wow Germany did worse than UK... also what was the point of the Rubix cube portion?
1.) what about 2004 to 2007 with only one semi-final and 14 countries automatically qualified for the grand final?
2.) 10:38 can you really say "Denmark was competing against 38 countries" or (my theory) rather 32 countries, as it only competed against the countries in its own semi final, not against the 6 eliminated countries from the other semi?
Whilst I enjoy this video to a degree, some of the math isn’t matching the way it should. If looking at rankings there should be some kind of weighted multiplier for winning, coming top 5 etc.
At a very basic level for example, you state that Ireland winning 4 times in 5 years is only the 8 best rolling average. I’m sure if you ask any of the remaining 7 if they wanted to trade results, they would all say yes. Finally - there is the probability of getting continuous results. Ie the odds of winning are low, odds of winning twice are impossible, winning 3 times is unbelievable etc
You maniacs!
1979 norway had oliver, its not average everyday dress... ?
Look at the recording from Melodi Gran Prix:
czcams.com/video/ImMef3dCMFw/video.htmlsi=CsxwOaMgvUb3KtWL
5:18 shouldn't Israel be 33th position here and all the other countries below be one more position?
You mean because of the tie? Hmm probably. Would have to check and see how much that changes things. Good catch!
Me, Norwegian gen z: we usually do very well
My mom, Norwegian boomer: but we always get 0 points?
Mind you, she's been watching eurovision every year I've watched it (at least from 2005 and onward) and she's still stuck on how poorly we did 50 years ago lmao
Sam ryder redeem the uk
The problem I see with Albania and Cyprus' comparison is that Albania would get better results anyway because the points were divided by less countries, thus the result is higher for Albania. To make it fair, we should take into account how many points they would get if they had the same amount of voting countries each semi final. Either Albania 58/21-1=2.9 or Cyprus 63/19-1=3.5. Also, we could say that there are an average of 20-1 voting countries in each semi [(19-1)+(21-1)/2=20-1]. That makes Albania 58/20-1=3.05 and Cyprus 63/20-1=3.32. So, Cyprus would be 28th and Albania 29th.
Is this how you take the fun out of Eurovision? 😆😆
Out?!?