Why Do Americans’ Political Opinions Change? l FiveThirtyEight
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- čas přidán 22. 08. 2022
- In part one of this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast the team analyzes a new poll from YouGov that breaks down why 78 percent of Americans say they have changed their mind on one or more political issues over the course of their lives.
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People with open minds learn more and therefore evolve.
Public opinions on immigration shifted "more conservative" not because it really did but because the democratic party shifted too progressive on this issue and made most people who stay consistent feel like they became more conservative.
I think you guys are overthinking it. People change their opinion when their experiences contradict it. The (very common) exception is when the emotional connection to one’s opinion is stronger than the impact of experiences.
I remember seeing that YouGov poll recently and Sarah kinda articulated what I felt. I was kinda confused about what people changing their mind on something as broad as foreign policy actually meant in regards to their specific views.
I imagine "foreign policy" is largely people changing their position on a war (or two wars). Probably mostly folks going from "for" to "that was a bad idea" ;)
Overall, I think it does a pretty good job trying to get at a very very difficult question. It doesn't completely succeed of course, but it makes a good try.
I was a Republican since I was 18 because I thought Reagan was a good president. I campaigned for Bush in 2000 and 2004. Romney in 2007 and McCain in 2008. I was elected as a Committeman for the Hillsborough County (Tampa, Florida) GOP in 2008, but resigned in 2011 after hearing numerous racist attacks on Obama. I never agreed with their platforms of anti-science, anti-abortion, or anti-environment. I began to campaign for Romney in 2011, but when he cozied up to the evangelicals, I was finally out and campaigned for Obama. Today I'm a liberal independent. The GOP has given up on reality and has increasingly become dangerously fascist in recent years. Several of my former GOP colleagues have traveled similar paths.
I think if you have an open mind and a desire to find the truth, you really can't support this current GOP regime. It's anti-American and it's careening towards authoritarianism. If America falls, it's not just Americans that are in peril. With our military might, the world is in peril. I feel as if we're on a knife's edge and a bad election could spell our collective doom.
I don,t understadn regan was pro life what the diference bewtween reagan and romney ! romeny for chruch and state seperation!
@@charlesray4084 I believe that there is more understanding of gay lifestyles and Romney has shown that he is more of a centrist who governs for all beliefs, not just his own. Comparing Romney to the alt-right GOP politicians, he's definitely the one I'd still vote for out of any other Republican politician. He seems to hold the Constitution as his guide, regardless of his religious beliefs.
I get coming from yet trump is crazy we proably lose the next election throw out non election deniers is killing the party!@@CSKapper
What exactly does more liberal or more conservative on foreign policy mean?
yeah.. there's many isolationists from both sides, especially from the far-left and far-right. But most american politicians are center-left and center-right who still believe in "peace through strength".
Even if people individually become more conservative on immigration the nation as a whole can become more progressive if younger people are more liberal than their parents with their initial view on immigration. Or maybe most people start liberal on immigration and shift conservative but each generation is shifting less and less conservative meaning any individual will say they have become more conservative but the country as a whole has shifted more liberal. It’s not like the nation is composed of the same group of people in the nineties. People individually change but so do demographics
I don't know how you can say views are getting more "Conservative" or "Liberal" without constant definition of what exactly those terms mean. I remember pro-censorship used to be more the conservative stance and being for free speech was considered liberal. Now it seems that being for free speech is considered conservative. Being more anti-russia is, I'm guessing a "liberal" position? So being anti-war becomes a conservative position? Mostly it seems like in these conversations, "Conservative" means what Repbulicans tend to support while "Liberal" means what democrats tend to support. You really need better definitions of those terms independent of how they map to current political parties if you want to have a conversation about what "direction" people's opinions have moved in.
"Conservative" is supporting existing hierarchies. "Liberal" is trying to level out hierarchies.
But you are correct of course. Most people just use these as sort of tribal labels without much meaning. Big policy positions and talking points tend to be more shibboleths than carefully considered positions based in ideology. The "conservatives" have dialed that way way up, so while this exists on both sides, it isn't remotely the same.
BTW: When the folks suddenly claiming to care about free speech are the same people banning books... Yeah, that's not genuine. A key thing to realize about populists, when they say "the people" they don't include everyone... It is all about rights and privileges for their in-group at the expense of others.
Your question suffers from vague definitions even more than the conversations you criticize. Your use of broad terms like “pro-war” and “pro-censorship” ignores the question of which war, which side of the war, what and who is censoring, etc. Supporting a country (Ukraine) against an irredentist invasion by a violent neighbor is not the same as supporting a rash invasion of a country (Iraq) for no clear reasons, and unclear reasons that aren’t even well supported by the evidence. Supporting private actors in exercising their free speech and association rights to censor the speech that they host is not “pro-censorship” in anything like the way that supporting legislatures banning certain topics in schools or workplaces is “pro-censorship”. Each issue asks people to draw a line and almost nobody actually has an all-or-nothing view, and each issue is not just a single one-dimensional spectrum.
so you think conservative today is pro free speech? then explain texas book ban or forcing "in god we trust" poster in school
Politic in US kinda warped the definition of this, and it has been irking me for a long time. For example, Republican used to be a liberal party and their economic policy today can be considered hyper-liberal economic policy with utter disdain for any regulation in the market and unfettered market force. At the same time tho, during Trump era, for some reason it embraces mercantilism by employing tariffs for foreign trade.
Kinda agree with underlying OP's point (not with the whole expanded drivel) Liberal seems to be anything that Democrat's base want, a mixed pot of liberalism, socialism, progressivism, ~~woke-ism~~ social liberalization, populism etc. While conservative is a mix of reactionary, autocracy, isolationism, populism, and actual conservatism.
@@agungnizam3695 that's a reactionary move from republicans going to an extreme, when the democrats go on very extreme social issues. They're reactionary in nature.
Cultural identification. Tracking people's stated opinions on policy over time will always diverge from how people perceive themselves changing (or not changing). I know a lot of people who's opinions have changed drastically over time but think of themselves as having always had the same politics. Or just look at people who feel more conservative because they are older even though their actual political ideas have become more progressive.
I always like this multi-person platform podcasts
It can both be true that the country is more liberal on immigration and folks have grown more conservative on the issue. Young people are coming into the electorate fairly liberal on this, while older conservatives have gotten more so. Young people haven’t had time to change their minds.
One recent example of a big issue where public opinion had big shifts is COVID-19. 18 months ago, a majority of the public favored mask mandates. Today, almost nobody does.
That's a huge shift in a hot-button political issue over an extremely short period of time, in the very recent past, and I find it surprising that a discussion on what makes people change their opinions completely omits this.
COVID is not a political issue. It's a health issue. Having a vaccine and effective treatments is what makes the difference.
There’s lots to make with eggs. French toast, omelette, egg drop soup, the list goes on.
Or just give them to your neighbours
I don't like that the podcast is split up in multiple videos
Love listening to you guys, but could you please just post one longer episode instead of a bunch of smaller half episodes!
Egg drama.
Throw a devilled egg party 😃 All I would say about the YouGov poll is that you are getting very stuck in the label weeds. Never forget that one person can be both liberal and conservative and I would guess most people have some conservative beliefs and some liberal beliefs. Lastly, bottom line most Americans I know really don't want government involved in our personal lives.
I think most Americans want government involved in personal lives, but only the parts where it wouldnt make them change habits and instead make what they believe that everyone has to follow. If it makes them do something they dont want (beneficial to the masses or not) they dont want it.
@@e_eyster you undertand the public perfectly!
They get a big shock, like Trump getting the Republican presidential nomination, then the scales fall from their eyes and they start questioning everything. Source:me.
Please get rid of Sarah. She contributes very little, largely because she refuses to take a stance on anything and just fills the time with repetitive verbal mush.
Please avoid cringeworthy small talk. Thanks.
I have no problem with that personally, adds more flavor to the video
@@hung-upear2659 It certainly adds cringe. At least add a bookmark. Wow.
Just skip the intro. It is always cringe smalltalk.
BTW: they know it is cringe after they say it... It is included as sort of a blooper making fun of themselves. It is a sign saying that, while they are talking about serious stuff, they don't take themselves too seriously. Not everyone's taste of course.