US Elections | 'Nostradamus' Of US Presidential Elections Makes Another Big Poll Prediction For 2024
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- čas přidán 30. 04. 2024
- Allan Lichtman, who is a history professor has been teaching at the American University in Washington for half a century and has correctly predicted the result of nine of the past 10 (and even the one that got away, in 2000, he insists was stolen from Al Gore).
Now, he is gearing up for perhaps his greatest challenge: Joe Biden v Donald Trump. He speaks to NDTV's Parmeshwar Bawa on who is likely to win the US presidential election in 2024, whether Trump's legal troubles have had any effect on his popularity and much more, on The World 24x7.
#AllanLightman #USPresidentialElections2024 #DonaldTrump #JoeBiden #TheWorld24x7
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Trump 2024 forever.
Dominion system dont care about predictions and polls
More excuses for your election losses?
This can be checked by ai and duplicate computer systems
4 years and still no evidence. Grow up!
You think Trump got 75 million votes despite dismal approval ratings his entire term? hahahahahahahaha
Not when they can be easily hacked.
Trump Trails by 1.5??? BULL! It’s TRUMP 2025 alll the way
One day, voting 🗳 no mail-in-ballots vote in person, no drop boxes , the
Pandemic is over and one day 24 hrs.
to count , no delays for weeks . 24 hrs.
Just be sure to VOTE for the candidate of your choice on 05 NOV, Tuesday.
Take your keys and shove it
cry harder
Why would anyone in right mind want Trump the lying narcissistic piece of s***
He is a blue 💩
This guy says a lot of nothing
One got away in 2000. Another got away in 2020.
Anyone else wish that guy had said “THE Keys, MY Keys, THOSE Keys, THAT Key… key Key KEY!” a few Gazillion more times? 🤨🤦🏻♂️🙄🤪
Lic.htman is.full of it.
Someone is scared 😅
Trump needs to get ready to lose
@@caroleeb1997You need to sweep up the hair in your cubicle.
Actually he has always been right . I've been watching him for years
@@caroleeb1997You need to to get ready to cry
He missed George Bush
But he is kind of contested because Kennedy has an independent candidate is really the Democrat. They should’ve been pinned against Biden.
I always say this. After 2016 , I don’t rely on polls anymore.every poll showed that, Hillary was winning, not only winning but in the land slide. Some people did give up. But after the polls closed, we all saw what happened. Polls is a snap chart, like he said
But they did predict she would win the popular vote overall, which she did handedly. State by state polls may have been inaccurate but they "all" weren't inaccurate
@@hebronharvester1487 They were pretty inaccurate. Even in the popular vote, Clinton received less than 50% of the vote. The same thing happened in 1992 and 1996.
@Shogun-my5nc how did she receive less than 50 percent of the vote when she won the popular vote? Are you saying it's because others didn't vote?
@@hebronharvester1487 she won the popular vote by lost state by state
@@flobekoe I've acknowledged that
Only way is cheating
Brainwashed you must be.
They only person who ever tried to cheat and overturn a election was Trump
This guy's a fool
No he's always been right
@@barbarafuller5098he is a fool
@@barbarafuller5098 not in 2000, but mostly, you're right.
I'm voting for freedom and democracy. Which guy is my best shot?
HINT not the guy trying to put his political opponent in prison.
Biden. Period.
The Republic you mean.
Trump 2024
The only candidate who believes in democracy
I think his ‘keys’ are not going to start the motor this year. They’ve been swept into the gutters of TDS!
And the pessimist in me asks, “couldn’t Biden and Trump share an incumbency key?”
Nope, its the party in the White House at the time.
I agree, because this is not a traditional "incumbent" election. Both are sort of incumbents. I think the economy key could go either way because I've heard several say it's not good under Biden... and third party? RFK is making noise, but he's not factoring that
Biden too old
Trump 2024❤
trump is old and unhealthy
Trump is 3 yrs younger than Biden you moron
Trump 2024
Also, there’s a whole new element of massive social media platforms & with a popular independent candidate that is gaining support/popularity amongst those previously apathetic towards any presidential campaign. RFK Jr could easily slip in there with a 34% in enough states to get to 270 electoral votes. This is real this could happen and we might witness the first time we can end this Duop and this insanity of nothing changes nothing changes. It’s time for change RFk Jr for President.
A faithful democrat, why listen to him
1992, Ross Perot cost Bush the presidency.
Is he in on the cheat? Vote up and down the ticket! Support state and local!! VOTE RED!!!!
Trump 2024❤
Thank you.
Always good to see Allan.
Incumbency and contest seem the same thing since there is rarely a contest against the incumbent, especially when you’re party refuses to let you run, Robert Kennedy comes to mind. But they claim to be the ones saving democracy.
Trimp🎉
FJB!
❤🎉😮 it says top of the morning 🙏
He's funny!!!!
DO NOT FORGET TO WATCH HIM AND HIS SON SAM TOMORROW AT 6!
VOTE RED !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Why ?
Why have the same old, same old? Kennedy is smarter and younger, so at least, he won't drop dead so soon.
@@edmunddavis3178better economy better foreign policy better safety better common sense better education better country!!!!
Not much choice , honestly.
This will start your fall of prediction
More likely you are going to take it on the chin and be very unhappy - Trump flags are disappearing everywhere in this rural White consevative area - in fact, there is only one left in the village. 6 months ago there were close to a dozen. People are just now beginning to pay attention in the suburbs where I (I'm originally from a city) have many friends, and I'm literally seeing people switch sides as I watch. Trump will lose NONE of his base, but his base is about 12.8% of the total population. His soft supporters and independents, both of which he requires to actually win are fading from him - the trends have shown that consistently for months. Trends matter much more than snapshots.
Sorry, not this year! 🤣🤣🤣
What are you smoking
Just watch, his predictions have been amazing over the years.
What is news anchor name ❤❤❤❤
Hi is "Donkey full of 💩
He must have known the rig was in on 2020 because I watched till 400 and trump was winning.
Trump use the stupidest people to make that dumb s*** believable but the facts far away with Trump was telling the stupid people that's why Trump is not the president and he will never be the president of the United States again
Ha so funny suddenly people in their 70s to 90s❤❤🎉🎉
Thank you!!! 😊
BS!
TRUMP2024🎉
@@anitafischer9714no way !🎉
Hope Trump Wins
THURSDAY AT 6!
LOL you can see him sweating this time, because his own model clearly show trumps going to win but he doesnt want to admit it
Lol 😀, you so stupid if you think the polls are telling you the truth about who's going to win the election in May Trump doesn't stand a chance to get back into the White House just like the Red Wave of 2022 Trump will not reach the White House quit dreaming and laughing out loud
I mean he's omitting the third party key, which is clearly present. The incumbent key is basically nullified because both candidates sort of fit "incumbent." And whether you agree the economy is good or not, I've heard several dissent, so I do agree he puts a bit of his own bias into this
Hes in trouble
They're both equally bad.
I hope you are right…Yesss!
So Joe won from his basement last time. Why don't he just get back in his basement.
Covid, u moron
NostDumus!
He's saying, there going to cheat again, and then we'll have a war😢
Please please please say it’s true
13 Very subjective keys.
he's going to be right again, cry about it
I guess this guy hasn't been paying attention lately.
cry harder, biden is going to win. again. get the tissues ready fashy 😂😂😂
Thanks to his love for junk food, coke, uppers, no sleep and massive economic pressures not t mention his court cases, a massive stroke is knocking at his door.
You hope pedophile
Make it happen!
Allan light man hates Trump. Forget keys this man is a liar.he never say anything good about Trump.😮
He looks a million times better than old joe.
@@lurlenereynolds3740 uh, no. Not only does Trump have cognitive issues now, but he's been mentally ill for some time. Why the so called liberal media doesn't pound him on this is beyond me. I'm amazed at how many Americans let their political bias twist objective reality.
Not interested!
President trump 2024!!
Didn't this guy used to be on Star Trek ?
Propaganda rhetoric.
BS....FJB..
😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎
Baloney!!!
nope, trumplethinskin is going to lose. again.
President Trump all the way 2024
NEVER HEARD OF THIS PERSON. From a 85 year old retired Command level officer.
He has been around for many years. BTW, my father is an 85 yr old vet and he hates Trump and the republicans
1994 was NOT a presidential election year. He starts off wrong right there.
He’s a SA bought Democrat.
Trump was the most successful CON ARTIST in America's history and all his supporters still don't know why they support him 😂😂😂😂😂
Open borders, dude
Trump ❤2024
You bumped your head
Ok
This man doesn't know who will win. Alot of Dems are leaving the party and voting for trump
who told you that? LOL No, they are not leaving
This guy is totally biased.
This guy has a great topee! Trump 2024!
In jail .
@@neverbackdown4187 Trump 20-24 years in prison!! the melted orange is going to lose again, can't wait for the coping from the right 😂😂😂
Trump I will vote for he's my president
He is a wuznik!
Wow. This guy must be paid off to spew a line of BS…
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️
Are yanks that stupid for Christ sake he should be in a home
the thing is he is always right
Easy to be right when there’s cheating going on…
@@lunaco2008 ,,so when he predicted the Republicans would win when TRUMP BUSH AND REAGAN WON AND HE WAS RIGHT.... so by your comment their must have been cheating going on for the Republicans since it is easy to be right which he WAS,,, when cheating is going on... other wise how would REPUBLICANS HAVE WON..you might want to rethink you comment....just saying
A liberal professor who teaches in a liberal state for a liberal school. His own analysis of theses keys are clearly liberal and he liberally claims he won 10 in a row despite 2000 not going his way. Hmm....
He predicted that Trump would win in 2016 and MAGA idiots loved him then.
If Joe Biden could transform his body to flat face man (without eyes, nose, mouth, ears) and Trump can be sandals which my teacher need me to acting as Donald Trump what will happens to USA in Future.
Whatever
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Yes, I agree. Little Bushy tail stolen from Gore . Both of them were corrupted . & Joey will fall again. Break a leg. I fallen & I can't get up.
Thanks be to God.
You're on the left you don't have a God remember
At Last some scientific analyses.
He's obviously biased. Whatever, blah, blah.
Biased, and yet right 9 out of the last 10 Presidential elections?
@@papercup2517 so he has been WRONG before you admit
WAH WAH WAH HE DIDNT SAY TRUMP IS THE GREATEST MAN TO EVER WALK THE EARTH HE MUST BE BIASED WAH WAH WAH 😂😂😂 ooo November is gonna be a rough month for you buddy
@@Jane20121985 I'm just stating the facts, as I understand them. I understand that the last time he was wrong was not picking Ronald Reagan, so it's a while ago. That seems like an exceptional record. By all means fact check any of this if you doubt its accuracy.
BS
*10 True Keys*
1)No primary contest
2)Incumbent seeking re-election
3)No 3rd Party
4)Strong short-term economy
5)Strong long-term economy
6)Major policy change
7)No social unrest
8)No major scandal
9)No major foreign / military failure
10)Uncharismatic challenger
*3 False Keys*
1)Midterm gains
2)Major foreign / military success
3)Charismatic incumbent
He said in the video that Biden is only down 2 keys which means he holds the foreign military success key as of now. But it's a shakey key.
I think 5 more keys are false:
The 2 economy ones may be false keys. If you look up "median income range by year", adjusted for inflation, they seem to be down.
There is certainly multiple 3rd party challengers. I think this indicator was false in the 2000 election, and I think the numbers there were smaller then.
There is no major policy change that most non-hyper-political people know of- unlike Obamacare- and apparently Trump tax cuts (based on Wikipedia Lichtman model for 2020).
There is probably enough 'social unrest', particularly when both sides of the media talks about it for weeks, though it may have only been a week so far.
5 more false keys (8 total) would presumably mean Trump +2, similar to what the polls are saying.
Edit: My predictions based on this
8: Trump wins MN and NH.
9: If Ukraine falls, Trump wins VA and ME.
10: If there's also a Joe scandal that everyone talks about for weeks: Trump wins NM and CO.
Major Foreign Policy Failure: Aghan Debacle that first drove his poll numbers below 50 and has never recovered. Leaving $83,000.000.000 of military hardware in the hands of a terrorist group on planet earth post 9/11 is a big deal.
Np Major Policy Change. Period. The chance he had was with pushing a Digital Currency Economy but he failed to follow through.
3rd Party: Bobby Kennedy Jr. Polling well over 5%
Long Term Economy: Fail based on his books way of measuring it.
Major Scandal? Close Call
Social Unrest? Toyed with by Bidens Base on college campuses. We will see what happens over the summer and fall.
@@mintee8638 lol so much cope, the economy keys are both in biden's favors, rfk is polling below the threshold lichtman looks for to turn that key against biden, biden has passed the most domestic legislation in decades so major policy change is obviously in biden's favor, and the social unrest key has not reached anywhere near the levels of 2020, which was the last time it was turned against the party in power. biden wins michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, and arizona, and he without a doubt wins minnesota, new hampshire, virginia, 3 out of 4 electoral votes from maine, new mexico, and colorado
never mind that RFK JR factor ! if "they" allow bobby onto the debate stage, its ALL over ! then america will know the smears are NOT true, and they censor him like crazy !
The smears are very true. He is a disgrace to the Kennedy family and a failure as a politician.
Anyone who thinks he's a disgrace to his father and uncle are not cognizant to his true beliefs and values. Only the intelligent have researched this and not listen to hearsay.
@@chrismatteson2337 I think you've taken to much horse wormer.
@@teresaboone893 too not to
Alan are you woke or common sense person?
I believe Gods prophets not this soulish man
LIGHTMAN IS WRONG THIS TIME !
He has been wrong before
they always say he's going to be wrong "this time", and he always ends up being right. biden is going to win again whether you like it or not.
Nice jokes
cry harder, biden 2024
Wow this guys such a joke
G9f
Lichtman is being deceitful when he says “all 4 keys have to fall and that’s not likely.” There are 13 keys and Joe only owns 2 of them. So If 6 of any of the 11 keys go against Joe according to Lichtman he loses.
it always amazes me the mental gymnastics people do when their preferred candidate isn't predicted to win, this is HIS system, not yours, he is the man who has predicted every election correctly since reagan, not you. he will be right, and you will be wrong. i'm sure you already have a list of excuses for when the melted orange loses again.
This guy reminds me of Engoron and Mercan combined
He is a nutjob.
cry harder, trump is going to lose. again. can't wait for the conservative tears 😂😂😂
@RealAmerican73, where have you been in the last three and a half years? Perhaps in Uranus?
@@JACB9675 when i’m right you’re just going to cry it was stolen again 😂😂😂 you guys are so predictable
@RealAmerican73 What you don't understand is that Biden is an inept, corrupt, incompetent excuse of a president who has ruined the nation. He is also a plagiarizer and a liar who ran for president three times and never made it. The only way he got to the White House was by cheating and stealing the elections, so this time, there was no way in hell he would win. Therefore, you will never be right.
Allan is not be asked the right questions, is tne recession key still standing?
There is no recession. The economy is strong a steel. Inflation is not the same as recession.
@@seanlee7563 But he applied that key on Trump in 2020 and there was no recession, and then it was economy key now he is calling it recession key. He will get it wrong this time.
@@otsienocharles7300 You didn't pay attention at all. Almost 3mil jobs lost. The unemployment rate increased by 1.6 percentage points to 6.3%. The real GDP declined 3.4% in 2020 from the previous year. It was the largest drop since 1947, when the nation’s economy declined 11.6% after years of economic expansion fueled by World War II.
These 3 things tell you that it was a recession.
@@seanlee7563 you are just blabbering leftist.....it's the jobs which got lost in covid are coming back.. Biden created no New jobs.. Only Govt jobs are increased.... Biden is losing.. People are fed up of Biden..
@@seanlee7563 you are just making stuff up.. It's only the covid jobs that's coming back.. Biden not created any jobs.. Govt jobs are increased... Inflation is hight.. Trump is winning.. It's over for Biden..
No you don't have a crystal ball but you are delusional
Someone sounds scared 😅
@@jacobstravail they all loved him when he predicted trump would win in 2016, now suddenly they hate him. i wonder why?? 😂😂😂
@@RealAmerican73 👏
The good news is you dont have to vote for Joe. He gets 81 million votes 😊
But you still should, there’s still a chance he’s wrong
That's how we ended up with trump
@@devilmecare EXACTLY!
@@devilmecare EXACTLY!
@@devilmecare EXACTLY!
Once he is wrong u will never hear of him again
You would hear DT no matter what, and possibly Putin too.
They said he was gonna be wrong in 2016 and 2020. Guess who was right...
Ah yes, the CZcams commentator is a more reliable source than the Harvard PhD with 40 years of accurate election predictions...
He was wrong for 2000 election he predicted Al Gore while Bush won
I agree
That Speaker Mike Johnson insult revealed this guys religious bigotry.
cry harder
This time Donald Trump big wins 🏆