Are We Stuck Between Hyperinflation And A Recession? | Economics Explained
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- čas přidán 18. 05. 2024
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Sir, I disagree with your conclusion that inflation is not that bad, but as always I enjoyed your video.
Can you do a video of the mechanics of the Eurodollar market?
Hey your discord link has expired!🤣🤣
Could you please renew it?
Here's a reminder
czcams.com/video/9Mjx5ooGm6U/video.html
so you can get back to us with your victory lap, when you're proven so much smarter than all those fools that didn't see the 1929, 1937, 2001, 2008 crisis coming (and all those crisis you didn't mention).
Snide remarks aside, who's gonna cover next 12 months of $1T Fed selling and $2T+ US Gov deficit spending?
The DXY is on a rampage and The World is getting impoverished to the tune of $5T per month.
Forget interest rates, forget whatever The Fed promises to do and forget economics - that's so last crisis.
This one is gonna be about math. How about "Maths Explained" as a concept?
⁰
The recession is here, mortgage rates still on the rise with higher imports and lower exports, yet the Fed is to lessen cost. Where do investors look at now for wealth gains? something will eventually break if they keep raising interests and quantitative tightening.
Just try to diversify your portfolio to other market sectors, that way your portfolio is balanced and you don’t get to make so much losses.
Right, I delegate my day-to-day investing to an advisor ever since suffering a major steep-down late 2019, amid rona-outbreak, and as of today, I'm semi-retired with barely 25% short of my $1m retirement goal after subsequent investments.
well said, mind disclosing info of your advisor please? I see no other way to maneuver steady profit and steer off losses in today's market affected by economic policies, hence I'm in line with seeking expertise assistance
Natalie Lynn Fisk guides me. She works with Empower Financial services. But there are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. For me, her strategy works hence my result. She provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. Also seems very proficient considering her résumé. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
It might not be "that bad", but man I'm sick of living through historical recessions at the peak of my employment years
I've learned that not that bad means not that bad for begillionare bond traders
This is a controlled demolition.
@@raybarry4307 Exactly. Once again the stock market soared too high, too quickly. Rich people that rode the wave profited handsomely while the working class deal with inflation and unaffordability. Not to mention that inflation means the assets of the rich go up and the increased costs of food or gas mean basically nothing to them.
@@graham1034 remember the federal reserve pumping $4 trillion into the stock market to prop it up? I just ate ramen for the 3rd time this week.
Brazil was literaly at 4% inflation before the Pandemic, we are not irresponsible as Argentina.
As an elder millennial, one of the few advantages is having lived through the Great Recession. My advice. Reduce unnecessary expenses, increase your savings by investing in financial markets and do not sell. One thing I know for sure is that diversifying your income can help insulate you from much of the craziness going on in the world.
True..... I'm thinking of investing in stocks or digital assets to grow my money for the first time, but I lack the in-depth knowledge and mental toughness to deal with these recurring market conditions. please any advice or pointer on how to outperform the market producing good returns
Heard someone say the best season for a fin.ancial breakthrough is now, especially with inflation running at a four-decade high. I have approximately $250k stagnant in my port_folio that needs growth. What is the best way to take advantage of this downturn?
Nicely said, I was thinking about going that route too, Jimmy Cramer has been going on about opportunities at stake in this present market and I’d really love to set my portfolio up for whatever is coming 2023, could you recommend this coach that guides you?
Once again for everyone who doesn't know, ANYONE NAME DROPPING AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR IS A BOT, AND THUS, A SCAM
Lol I laugh that you call yourself a elder millennial cause I call myself late Gen X born 77. It's weird being in the cusp, but we seem to understand more generations than most.
Instead of trying to predict and prognosticate whether or not we’re going into a recession and precisely when it’s going to happen, a better strategy is simply having a portfolio that’s well prepared for any eventually, that’s how some folks' been averaging 150K every 7week these past 4months according to Bloomber
I can’t focus on the long run when I should be retiring in 3years, you see I’ve got good com.panies in my portfolio and a good amount invested, but my profit has been stalling, does it mean this recession/unstable market doesn’t provide any calculated risk opportunities to make profit?
I am experiencing one of the most challenging phases of my life... Lost a fortune lnvesting in emerging companies. How are other people in the same market raking in over $200k gains with months, I'm really just confused at this point.
Investors should be cautious about their exposure and be wary of new buys, especially during inflation. Such high yields in recession is only possible under the supervision of a professional or trusted advisor.
I have been speaking with a coach for a long time now mostly because I lack the background knowledge and mental toughness to handle these reoccurring market conditions. I made over $220K since the second quarter, which proved that there is more to the market than the average person is aware of.
Pls who is this Advisor that guides you? I’m in dire need of one
Having a good FA is essential for portf0lio diversification. My advis0r is *Sharon Louise Count* who is easily searchable and has extensive knowledge of the financial markets.
I Found her online page by searching her full name, I wrote her an email and scheduled a call, hopefully she responds soon. Thanks
The gdp numbers aren't lying; we are technically in a soft recession. I was also shocked to see the market shooting up today. And I agree, if the market is green tomorrow I will also be pleasantly surprised and start looking for Elvis, MJ and Prince. LOL
I’m studying for the Series 65 exam and one of the question is on the definition of recession and the right answer still is negative growth in gdp two consecutive quarters..
@@hushbash2989 In order for us to prepare for the future we need to look into safer investment with good prospect . If you have the mindset of investing 5 years ahead then look into Bonds, Index Funds, ETF & Bitcoin. Just keep DCA every time you get paid. My portfolio still return good gains even in this tremulous time..
@Roddy -Great poits laid out. Currently approaching retirement & i think this is the last window of opportunity for me to become a millionaire before retiring, as Recessions are where millionaires are creatd..Currently i have some lump sum in a savings account and will like to work with a fiduciary financial advisor to achieve my goals..Can suggest anny?
According to Warren Buffet "I don’t think most people are in a position to pick single stocks. Credits to my Financial-Advisor “Patrice Carol Rainer” whose skills in portfolio diversification is unmatched and client-centered..You can look her up as she has an official webpage for consultations.
well almost ever single tech stock dropped and has stayed down all day today so....
The part where EE talked about companies exploiting consumers' expectations of rising prices to raise prices, and that the fed's biggest tool in combating this is just by saying they're combating this reminds me of the placebo effect, but on a societal level.
I think we can agree on the term, Manipulation
Believe and trust is what makes or economic system go around.
Is all that, the rest is built on top of it.
So if people believe that dollar will have value, it will have value.
And they believe so because they trust it.
So yeah, the current economic system is very susceptible to emotions and feelings.
Its not all in our heads. We HAVE rising prices, so we HAVE to get wage increases, or we will all lose the ability to meet basic living expenses, like 20 % increases in rent, or we will be living under a bridge, and then there IS no economy. Trying to stop people from getting wage increases just makes the entire country poorer. Calling it the placebo effect is just gaslighting the population to convince them that the reality of price increases is not actually real, and somehow if we lose our jobs that will help the country, when it really won't, and we will get those raises in the long term, or there won't be an economy, or a nation !
Sadly, the placebo effect doesn't work when you STILL have Biden and the democrats running around telling everyone who will listen that they're going to make it impossible to drill for oil in this country! Oil futures are used to set the price of oil and even a possible reduction in supply means gas prices will rise! Add to that the fact that a number of US refineries either caught fire or just closed due to being unprofitable during the lockdowns (& working from home) when everyone stopped driving. But we didn't need the gas at the time, so no one cared. Now people are back to work, our refineries are at capacity, and the government has no plans to open a new refinery ever again!
Thankfully, we have a looming recession coming that has temporarily reduced prices a little. But Biden has been taking credit for that instead of calling it #Putin'sPriceReduction like he should! He wants credit for falling prices, but claims there's nothing he can do to lower them when they're high... id!ot. Mexico has SIX refineries all operating BELOW capacity we could refine our oil at if only Biden would allow it!
Wild how the buck always stops at poor, working class people.
I walked into my boss' office and demanded a raise. He wouldn't give me one, so a quit 2 months later.
The amount of money I saved in commuting alone has made living off of savings quite reasonable and really opened my eyes just how little i was actually making for my efforts.
He's still hiring for my old position.
Good for you :)
serves him right, good job
Got a new job?
Nice fairy tale
I got a job offer, but it was 100km drive. I accepted it, then a day later bailed it. I’d be spending like 10,000 dollars a year on gas. Its not worth it.🤔🤔
Economics Explained is Australia's best export. Representing our country proud mate!
@@elinope4745 why so rude?
@@Dr.Nilesh_Shukla Yeah text doesn't transmit the joking tone very well. I'll erase it
@@Dr.Nilesh_Shukla The few Ausies I knew had that style of humor and would have appreciated it, I took down the comment.
Not going to lie, I found two australian youtubers over the last month that are really solid. (The other is Perun who makes top notch analyses of the war in ukraine)
Big Lez Show exists mate
With inflation running at a four-decade high, a Recession is now the ‘most likely outcome for the economy. How can I grow my portfolio to outpace inflation and maintain a successful long-term strategy? I have been reading of investors making mouth watering profit in this current crashing market, and I need ideas on how to achieve similar profit.
On the contrary, even if you’re not skilled, it is still possible to hire one. I am a project manager and my personal port-folio of approximately $750k took a big hit in April due to the crash. I quickly got in touch with a financial-planner that devised a defensive strategy to protect and profit from my port-folio this red season. I’ve made over $150k since then.
@@beltran3353 who is this individual guiding you? I lost over $9000 just last week, so I’m in dire need of a financiaI-planner.
Helen Melissia Carneal is widely known. She has a web presence, you can verify her and use her services if you want.
Once again anyone not in the know, all of the people in this string of comments are not real, they are bots. All a scam, please ignore this 'Melissia Carneal'.
@@fractale4322 I wonder why no one calls them out often? It's as clear as day a scam when they all regurgitate the same name and tactics
It would be great to have a video about how the US exports it's inflation to the rest of the world through the dollar, and how this inflation-export make other nations inflation problems even worse. Latin America countries would be great examples, especially the historically irresponsible with public accounts and inflation (like Brazil or Argentina).
Rather have the US exported 9% inflation per year, than take the local inflation in Venezuela o Argentina of 8% per month
I get that US inflation is making Latin America inflation worse, but how is that slowing the rate of inflation in the US? Exporting inflation requires two things. One, the importing country get inflation. Two, the rate if inflation of the exporting country is slowed.
Printing money isn't just the US. The EU and most of the world's central banks all printed money like crazy during the pandemic.
@@theBear89451 all inflation that america exports is money that is not used in it's own market elleviating it's own inflation problems, similarly to how if those same countries sent dollars back to america it would make america's inflation worse even without the input of their own national bank
Fuckin' A. There's 40% extra dollars, but the exchange rates didn't shift by 40%. Same with the Euro. The developed nations multiplied their wealth at the expense of the rest of the world. I'm as pro-West as can be, but the USA's abuse of its position as managing the world's reserve currency is disgusting.
The record profits also points at lack of competition and alternatives in many sectors. Corporate consolidation has been occurring for the past 20 years making consumers sitting ducks for higher prices. I hope that this experience puts government focus on breaking up monopolies and oligopolies. I also hope it spurs investment in innovative alternatives .
well, that's wishful thinking right there. At least in the US the influence of big money on government is FAR to great.
@@autohmae Yeah. If there were no useless taxbrakes for companies in previous years there would be no problem right now.
well thats not even a problem, once they prices are too high consumers become producers. You think other people are not able to produce things? Just start a new company ,if there is demand for something you can start producing it. You don't need to wait after other people to do it for you
@@sten260 Sure, you try making a pharmaceutical start-up and compete with the oligarchs. When Pfizer has their buddies at the FDA come shut you down, don't come crying to me. They don't just have monopolies/cartels, they have corrupt institutional power they can leverage as a bludgeon to crush competition. Lobbyists, former CEOs with cabinet positions, Congressmen with huge shares in companies, big government is in bed with big business. Free Market solutions aren't working b/c we don't have a Free Market, it's been corrupted like this for the better part of a century.
@@Lusa_Iceheart there are tons of pharmaceutical start-ups not just in united states but other countries as well
I'm glad to see someone point out that profits are an inflationary pressure. In Australia the media refused to mention this.
Yeah, there really needs to be a progressive tax for corporations. (The tax% should go up for higher profit / turnover )
Just like there is a progressive tax for salary income.
cuz economics dont sell ads for their brain ded audience. not some fuckinconspiracy
Saw an ABC article on it this morning
Australia was headed for recession before the pandemic hit. To say the media was wilfully blind to a government that was in denial of the economic reality is a very big understatement.
They should have been jacking up interest rates back in 2019.
Recessions are like bush fires. Properly managed they slowly clear out the underlying dead wood and allow new growth to thrive. Not properly properly managed and you rapidly lose the entire forest.
@@Robbedem theres a problem, the tax definitely will be pushed to the customer, since the company wont dare to take any loss to tax. The more reasonable demand is to regulate the company more.
My spouse and I are adding a variety of stocks/ETF to my present holdings for the long term, We've set aside $250k to start following inflation-indexed bonds and stocks of companies with solid cash flows, I believe it is a good time to capitalize on the market for long-term gains, but it wouldn't hurt to know means of actualizing short term profit.
The market is volatile at this time, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
I’m new to all this, heard it's a good time to buy and basically I've just got cash sitting duck in the bank and I’d really love to put it to good use seeing how inflation is at an all time-high, who is this coach that guides you, mind I look them up
Thank you flynn for this tip. it was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
And here come the financial advisor bots....
Don't listen to any of the spammers, keep using ETFs outperform any financial advisor
Another factor to perceived and actual inflation is the fact that a lot of industries use "sticky" pricing in that they absorb short-term price shocks, or simply aim to only increase prices every few years rather than every year or worse, within a year. In relatively stable periods they might raise their prices 5-10% after 2 or more years averaging out at 2-3% overall inflation, especially since not everyone raises their prices necessarily at the same time. However, as factors stretch out like a lingering disruption due to the pandemic and/or war, then more businesses need to act immediately on their prices. Ones that maybe haven't increased their prices in a few years will be left making a larger jump, especially if they're now convinced they still cannot make out the light at the end of the tunnel. Shelves remain sparse-empty not because there are no goods to stock them with, but rather because retailers don't want to commit to large volumes at inflated prices which they will be stuck with after supply chains either improve or are forced to run a bit leaner to keep money moving.
Love the channel content, keep it coming! :)
The concerning thing is ALOT of investment went into food and Bev companies in 2020/2021 in added capacity. We were fine before, when the supply chain does catch up we could see a prolonged deflationary period due to excess capacity
Well said! I am also here to learn more genuine ways on short term investment, any idea
Thank for watching send a direct massage right away i will love to hear your thoughts on it and for more enlightenment ☝️❤️❤️
We seem to be stuck between utterly contradictory things. The "economy" doesn't seem to be real anymore. Example: the official unemployment rate is low, but everyone I talk to knows lots of people that were let go during the pandemic and can't find jobs, while sending out countless resumes for anything they can get their hands on and nobody is responding. At the same time, according to business owners, they can't find anyone to work. Everywhere I go, I see now hiring posters, and frequently I see businesses that would otherwise be open saying they can't open because they can't find anyone to work. These might be personal anecdotes, but I see and hear this same sentiment everywhere in real life and on the internet.
There is nothing contradictory about what you have observed. There is a rising in unemployment while also accompanied by a rise in empty working position because the ones that are empty can't pay a living wage. Business owners claimed that such positions require little education or are unessential to the operation of the business and refused to pay a living wage. On the other hand, jobs that can pay a living wage are saturated.
@@minhducnguyen9276 Overpopulation is fun to deal with. You want a liveable wage? Ok, just compete with billions of people for the same 100 spots
Yes, the problem here are the HR departments that have been infiltrated by evil people with an agenda.
@@minhducnguyen9276 thoses nonessential position still should count into statistics. The original comment points out that it doesn't feel like that, almost like statistics have been made up
@@minhducnguyen9276 There has always been crappy jobs for low pay..... But i can tell you in certain industries, like mine in I.T. the pay has gone down, so has the standards of expertise.... So people like myself can't find work at a reasonable wage. But there is plenty of work if you're willing to take a massive pay cut...
You might argue that this is supply and demand.... But if everyone in my industry with my level of expertise takes this massive pay cut..... They will no longer be any demand.... As there are less positions available than unemployed or under employed I.T. workers...
In short it's dodgy stats.... Politicians Jaw Boning to delay the obvious recession that is just around the corner...
We are already in the big crash, Inflation is a catastrophe. This CPI report is a colossal failure. To bring the housing market to a halt, the FED will have to pull all the stops. The unfortunate issue is that other markets are being decimated. If you want to stay green, you have to rely on a lot of diversification. Currently up 14% and being careful. Still a better deal than leaving it in a savings or checking account yielding 0-1 percent interest.
Mutual funds?
People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyperinflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.
I
@@vanesseparker1619 To manage investment risk consider maintaining a broad diversification of your investments that reflects your personal risk tolerance, time horizon, and the nature of your financial goal. Remember, diversification is an approach to help manage investment risk. It does not eliminate the risk of loss if security prices decline Because investing can be complicated. Consider working with a Financial Advisor to help guide you on your wealth-building journey if you're just starting out.
@@julianxavier9568 Are you in touch with a Financial Advisor? is your experience much better than investing on your own?
12:40 this view strikes me as extremely short-sighted. The real issue was not a round or two of stimulus checks; it was the negative interest rate environment and obscene amounts of QE that have been persistent since 2008 across the western world. A huge amount of that free money was employed to increase supply through being invested in stocks and private funding rounds of companies to fuel product-led growth. Yes, the end goal of those companies was to generate demand, but they aimed to do so by increasing supply (addressing unmet needs). Ironically, many innovations from this era actually reduced consumer spending through subsidising the real cost w. free money, e.g. normalisation of free online services+apps by Google, cannibalisation of movie rental + cinemas by Netflix, cannibalisation of private car hire and consumer investment in means of transport by Uber.
If the goal all along had been to stimulate demand, that funding could have been better employed to add to the public's real wage growth instead of allowing it to stagnate for almost 15 years while corporate and PE accounts multiplied. The amount of dry powder that was sitting in the PE industry for the past decade only goes to show how this led to our structural issues of today - it fundamentally distorted the efficient resource application function of free market economies.
💯
No but seriously why are all these discussions ignoring the non-solution to the 2008 financial crisis. The money printer has been on for nearly 15 years.
Thank you 🙄
Good insights. Why would inflation from those longer term cycles from the last 10+ years only be hitting now though?
@@mitchellbloemker4750 I think it's kicking in now because until the pandemic hit, there weren't any roadblocks to growth. It has been relatively normal to operate unprofitably for the last decade in an attempt to push competitors out of the market, mostly thanks to the ability to raise capital whenever needed. but once competitors were successfully pushed out, the goal was always to raise prices to a profitable level. the pandemic and supply chain issues just accelerated the timeline (and many companies are also using inflation as an excuse to collect record profits).
My experience living paycheck to paycheck makes me feel like this system was rigged to never cease creating misery for the 'little guys'. How we prevent recession or hyperinflation?? Eliminate greed, but that's not a viable solution now is it? As one of the younger millennial, all of this recessions have me on edge. When does financial prosperity begin being normal for my bank account?
It doesnt,go answer your question
If it makes you feel better,yeah,its global,and yeah,jts rigged .In my country , working above average paying job,i am,were, looking at at least 30 years of labor oooor my entire salary in payments on loans ,which would leave me unable to feed...
And nowdays,this jumped with like 10 years too,and i was already unable to save my usual ,like,100 bucks,so...who knows
there are rich people out there, instead of asking how can the world change why don't you look in the mirror and think how you can change? Don't be a "little guy", become a big guy
@@BlackCoffeePlanet this doesn't make me feel any better. Seems like an impossible uphill battle to fight. Everyone needs to just agree that there are systems kept in place for many people not to prosper.
@@sten260 it's not that easy, but you already knew that right. I'm definitely on my financial journey to do my share of making the right financial situation for myself. But boy is it a long journey to embark on
@@nicenaffordablehomeeconomi9143 oh, I'm sorry,the reality is rather bleak
But you shouldn't frown either- in the end of the day,our times seem to be rather...fragile
Who knows what may break just right for us,the normal folk,to take advantage and at least actually live instead of existing
Still,sorry,didnt mean to be a downer
Love the fact that Australian news and information CZcams channels are 100000% more informative than the news. More people need to ditch tv and print and start getting their information in well researched and edited formats like this instead of BS opinion
As long as you don't follow Sky News Australia.
It's the worst news channels I've come across on CZcams. I even consider them worse than PragerU...
Except sky news.
@@praxis6172 sky news is only 25% more informative then actual news and is really partisan, still better than the rupert murdoch puppets
If you have a wicked sense of humour, and info - try the Juice Media CZcams channel and podcast.
Or Perun for analysis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
I like your detailed explanations, but the stock "inflation is partially caused by pay rise demands" is getting really old, especially when wages have been consistently suppressed and lagging behind productivity for years now. This is why we have a such a decrease in labour participation, as the disparity between the effort and pay has become ever more wide, and the pandemic just made those problems really apparent. It's an effect of it, not the cause. Current salary demands are in response to price hike, not other way around, since Covid money flooded people's accounts, and the companies are hedging themselves against the inevitable increases and supply shortages. That is your other 3%. All of it is driven by the lockdown, both the demand spike, production lag and the inflated money supply, all of it. Interest rate hike, as painful as it is, has to happen and the money supply has to contract. The question is, how long will they keep up their anemic response to it, since that increase should have been slow and concurrent with the opening up of the economy, not the brake-slamming they will inevitably do and which they fear to do.
No kidding. If no amount of work lets you cover the basic cost of living, what's the point of working for an employer? If the difference between being employed and being unemployed is negligible, why work at all?
source?
@@rahanm7307 the idea that pay increases are bad is a form of class warfare being perpetrated against you in order to convince you to act against your own interests and not demand what youre worth. It ought to be dismissed out of hand, not treated as a reasonable proposition that needs to be argued against.
Thanks for posting! I called bullshit as soon as he said that.
The people at the top have been getting pay raises though, along with bonuses. CEOs are absurdly wealthy nowadays compared to 50 years ago, and the blue collar workers are getting shafted
We must Kill the inflation regardless of the cost or the recession. We can recover from a recession relatively quickly. But we cannot recover from systematic inflation anywhere near as quickly or with stability.
Countries have been brought down by inflation, don’t know of any taken down by recession
In the mid-long run, rampant inflation almost always have a bigger downturn then a recession. This is really between a rock and a hard place kind of situation.
The only issue is it isn't inflation vs recession, it's inflation vs full global collapse. Without the massive money printing in 2020, collateral on trillions of dollars would have defaulted. This risk actually resulted in a temporary hesitancy to transfer funds between the biggest banks on Earth, and had that been followed by said default, Swift would have shut down bringing down the entire global economic system nearly instantly. That risk hasn't gone anywhere. These debts CANNOT default, it's really that simple as far as the global economy is concerned.
The time to save ourselves from inflation was before we had FED interest rates hit nearly 0% and to se QE. Now the best option the government actually has available, is to make the inflation as gradual as possible, just accept the unavoidable recession, and to prep a replacement currency system (see government CBDC development) as an escape option for when (not if) hyperinflation hits once the average person realizes the currency is headed to zero.
@@seekererebus255 if the average person didnt think the currency was headed to zero, then hyperinflation wouldnt happen. this is the issue. announcing a replacement currency would be the trigger that would make the value of the current currency fall off a cliff.
All of you need to go back to school and retake your macro economic class.
Sure recession might not be as scary as hyperinflation.
But the one and only thing we should avoid at all cost is a depression.
There are many tools effective to fight inflation and there are almost no effective tool for fighting a depression.
FINALLY!
You upload. Please do more economic analysis on the past 80s and how Japan's 'Lost Decade' battling both deflation and stagnation can pinpoint to a comparison per fiscal policy.
Just go read “Princes of Yen” by Richard Werner.
I love when people act like the inflation isn't a big deal. People hear 7 or 8% and think it's not so bad. Yet fuel has doubled and food has increased 30%+. My job gave me a 3% raise, so I lost money compared to inflation and the cost of living. It's a much bigger deal day to day than the news or government let on and its sad to see how little they care what the average person has to deal with due to these issues.
i mean even 2% inflation sucks because its not like you are gonna get a raise every year.. unless you just hop jobs every 6-12 months
The exclution of food and energy from CPI always look so arbitrary to me. That's literally the two most important thing you must have to sustain yourself.
@@garrydimasa1964 They also exclude housing. It's no surprise that the "housing crisis" and "inflation crisis" are listed separately.
Britain and China are at economic war, and we are all the peasants fleeing the cavalry.
What is the government going to be able to do except throw money at oil companies and subsidize them to re-open their refineries? Thats just an extra step with the government taking it's cut instead of just paying what's owed at the pump. As for food were does the government come in to prevent poor crop yields and disease in flocks except to levy more regulation.
I don't know hyperinflation or recession: I am stuck in my parent's basement lol.
We all are. Most just won't admit it. I read an article, think it was last year-ish, and they said that over 50% of American live with someone else or with their parents. It's not a shameful thing, we just need to do what we can when we can do more. Stay strong.
Same
So which is it? Are you not being impacted, or are you? I mean....if you cant afford your own place (which Im NOT shaming you for) then arent you also impacted? I highly doubt the reason you are there is refusal to work
@@freedomandguns3231 maybe he does not want to. I do not want to. Som houses are ment as multigenerational and noone wants to take care of it alone
People's pay is going down significantly in real terms. Corporate profits have been setting new records. But yes, let's focus on worker pay rather than profits.
Why have you not talked about Sri Lanka?
Sri Lanka's total economic collapse is something that's been boiling in the background of international politics for quite some time now, and frankly isn't explained very well by other sources of information - I feel like explaining complex economic situations is something that EE does very well... so why haven't you covered it at all, especially now that the situation has come to a head with the president and prime minister fleeing the country and basic resources becoming critically unavailable to the populace?
Do you mean the Elite that had captured all the increases in income, leaving those who generated that income to live in poverty, had to run away when those workers " Broke in " and found out?
Because their problem was caused entirely by corrupted officials and not external economic factors.
I don't care how it's done, but the cost of buying a house needs to decrease against the value of the average salary.
Maybe we could raise the wages of all politicians to $100 trillion dollars a year raising the average salary considerably? You said you didn't care how it was done and now your wish has been granted
Move to Detroit. A house costs $1.
"negative growth" what a phrase.
I am from Argentina and I wish to have the level of inflation that USA has. For us, this is low. Here, the annualized inflation is around 70/80%.
Deflation isn't a bad thing. It's only bad because it would affect the economy due to the sheer amount of debt being held. Overall it would be absolutely great for the lower 80% of the population to have their dollars worth more considering the stagnant wages.
Exactly; inflation benefits those who spend recklessly while punishing those who manage their finances more carefully. With the sheer amount of debt pretty much every single government of the world holds though, they can't afford to have deflation or they'd end up defaulting (and its not like this won't happen eventually anyway- seems like it's just kicking the can down the road).
Deflation is bad because it disincents consumer spending, which is 70% of U.S. economic production, so it would cause a severe decline in the U.S. economy, leading to brutal unemployment. Other than that, yeah, deflation is good.
Not really, most people with low income have almost no savings. Deflation benefits those who have large cash holdings which is definitely not the lower 80% of the population.
@@kevinkent6351 Inflation going up leads to more spending only to an extent. Given the stagnant wages and that many of the assets most affected by inflation are essential if inflation continues to rise people won't have disposable income to spend, which is something you just need to look around to observe.
@@Strongholle inflation isn’t necessarily good for consumer spending, I agree. My point was about deflation, which causes people to withhold spending as they wait for prices to fall. It’s a terrible situation in economics.
Raising interest rates with a combination of rising salaries and production costs means it's harder for smaller business to keep up in the transfer. In a time in which small business are already being beat out by large corporations, it is not reassuring the fed's strategy to combat this recession is raising interest rates.
Keep in mind how small our low wage salaries are now though, and how much they've shrunk in effect since they've gone up alone (30%ish!). I can give a great personal example. There is a major, world class factory here (small village) in the automotive industry, that starts out at $13/hr. They are doing massive mandated over-time due to labor shortages, and as such they have been having *extreme* turnover and poor production quality/time. The airfoil company on the other side of the town which requires the same 0 work experience, High School diploma only? Starts at $18/hr for an equally simple, if not easier physically, job. They've scalped plenty. All the actual GOOD employees, decades of experience? Jumped ship to a shop that does something similar about 30 minutes north for an outstanding $25+ an hour. This automotive shop with turnover issues went from being fantastic, to turning into a dumpster fire, because before people would only work for so little because of the Rust Belt economy and how lazy they could be.
So what exactly would you suggest they do? It's so easy to 20/20 hindsight armchair quarterback these things.
I would argue if the wage increases are truly the cause for small businesses going out of business that the problem lies with business itself. If there's no demand for your service, you're in the wrong profession.
@@jhemp I think the initial price hike would cause strain on their busniess. They are competing with larger corporations who are able to have cheaper products by selling more volume. Moat people aren't caring as much from where it comes from but the apparent deal they are getting to make it cheaper
@@georgey8280 From previous studies, minimum wage increases have created issues, however inflation of goods go up by 0.75% compared to the massive increase in local money circulating. It also showed that it was only for the first month or so that it difficult, and after that, with more money in more people's pockets, it drives consumer spending, which if the business was doing okay in the first place, is a good thing.
"The government exists for the good of the people it represents." = that is a utopian view of government. Actions speak louder than words, and the US government has shown it cares more for the generation of wealth and power for politicians than it does for the 'good of the people'.
We in Yugoslavia had hyperinflation...it was insane. We had 1-2 system of oil tanking where you all who had number 1 can tank today and all number 2 tomorrow. We had such inflation that todays wage is worthless tomorrow and it was crazy. We had rows for all things where you wait all day to be said that there is no more sugar or even bread. Insane...and then the war began and at the end NATO intervention in Serbia destroyed infrastructure....I don't know how we are still standing and being alive. So this nothing new to us.
@@democrrrracymanifest Well, you win some you lose some, we were just returning a favor from half a century before. But yeah, when you commit genocides economy tends to suffer.
@@user-jl9cg2im5q Balkan’s be like battle Royale 💀
@@user-jl9cg2im5q returning a favor? U guys deserved every fuckin bomb
Good, balanced analysis, we need more of this out there.
I don't think supply and demand drives prices anymore
We have been in a Depression since 2008, it just looks different due to the bailouts that we’re not conducted in the 1930’s - see bank reserves and the monetary base. So, I disagree with the Recession label and prefer calling what this has been-a Depression.
That is the truth!
How have we been in a depression since 2008? What made you come to this conclusion?
It s just trying to ressent and obstinate any respect or substanciality or relevancy in a extreme conservative system that s also curling on it s self and absurd
economists in other contexts would describe 50 years of declining real income as a generational DEPRESSION. It is normal because of its duration.
simply put when the burden of debt service is larger than growth, inflation and recession both emerge. inflation from those that can raise their prices and recession from those who cannot and must reduce expenses. stagflation is only emergent because both natural consequences of the financial and monetary system are evident at the same time.
demurrage is a stable alternative over interest, because interest necessitates growth and inflation (as a prophylactic against deflationary spirals).
Under no circumstance would The Fed say, "we blew it, the overwhelming vast majority of the inflation is our fault". Why even cite them?
True. Companies don't have the option to _not_ raise prices, so it's definitely the government's fault.
@@custos3249 if the companies pay 40% to 200% more for their products, they have to pass some of that on to their customers. Private companies don't have guns and the power to tax their customers. Have you ever ran a business or looked at a P&L sheet for a company that you manage?
@@custos3249 well Public Corporations don’t. Private companies aren’t mandated by law for continuous growth.
The C-Corp needs to be reformed or replaced with organizations that incentivize stability. But nobody ever talks about that.
@@marksuave25 Oh, sorry. I didn't realize all profit margins were so tiny based on the record profits companies keep talking about that there's no option but to move that to the consumer, especially when research shows the increases in aggregate costs don't validate the price hikes we're seeing, i.e. price gouging. I needed a high IQ corporate manager like you to explain that to little ol' me. Thanks. I keep getting confused by all that "innovation incentive" capitalists love to say is so unique to capitalism.
@@custos3249 record profits? Are those nominal or real profits? I talk to several small business owners, ALL have said they are making a lot of money, BUT in real terms, they are not. And you still didn't answer the question, have you ever looked at a P&L sheet for a company that you manage? Simple question, yes or no.
This is the video I was looking for!! Thank you :)
"companies exploiting consumers' expectations of rising prices to raise prices"
Doesn't this imply that inflation is self-perpetuating? We measure inflation by the price of a basket of goods. So now "there is inflation so we must raise prices", then "inflation is higher so we must raise prices", and so on so forth...
Seems like one of the biggest follies of our economic system. Until demand tempers off, so companies begin competing on price, at which point the optimal strategy dictates some type of a coalition to see prices rise instead of fall.
Seems inflation could very quickly spiral out of control if left in the hands of corporations to determine their price in inflationary times. Very, very quickly indeed.
Thank you for the vote of Optimisim at the end there. I needed it!
Major news channels won’t hire you, but I’m glad to hear someone that actually knows about global economy! Brilliant channel
I like how I went from building a savings, to now living paycheck to paycheck, and storm clouds are gathering, but the Central Banks will make everything better
Well not for you, you’re the raw materials.
@@mzaite I think that's given them too much credit; those within the Central Banks likely consider me refuse
@@dark_fire_ice honestly we are just debt slaves to the central banks.. they give less than zero fucks about us. hence why they like to say deflation is bad..
@Zack Smith why are you stocking me? I don't mind, schizoid and all that, but does concern me
14:38 We can only hope. House prices here in BC are absolutely ridiculous, especially for a student just coming out of university. I can barely afford rent let alone pay a million dollars for a house. And we're not just talking about in Vancouver either, this is a problem all across the province.
This is what you should do in an hiring speech
Show them the price of stuff
the wage required to live within 1km from the place of work to sustain a 10 years bank loan to buy a house, making that 30% of the wage.
Then you put gas price to sustain yourself, to buy food etc, to buy a car, you know.
But of course, you can't do that
You gotta work work work work just to be able to afford food.
Corporate greed has killed humanity.
Yeah you can't even buy a house in a small town
@@Sinaeb You shouldn't expect to pay off a mortgage in 10 years. Most house mortgages take around 25 - 30 years to pay off.
@@Sinaeb The phrase, "Corporate greed has killed humanity" is the stupidest thing that I have read all day. It's not noon yet though so there's still time to top it.
Seriously, just because some things cost more than you want to pay doesn't mean it's the apocalypse. Get a grip!
@@WythenshawePhil People are starving because they can't afford to pay for basic food and shelter.
Your solution: Get a grip!
This is the stupidest thing I have read all year. Are you totally out of empathy or just a simple sociopath?
Been following EE for a couple years, love the ELI5-ness to it.
But the more I learned the more I found EE's explanations to be bullet-points from the G7/WEF playbook.
Great video as usual, cheers mate!
Great summary. However you should have talked about QT (Quantitive Tightening) as well. This also aims to lower inflation, and works along with raising interest rate.
Logistics prices is a huge issue atm. I live in Hong Kong and has regular shipments to the UK via DHL. It used to be $550hkd per shipment (2020) and last week it was $850hkd 🙃 same exact size and weight.
Great post my friend. I appreciate everything you are sharing here.
Economics Explained, there is another reason that companies raise prices more than necessary. That is because of the costs associated with raising their prices. Like a restaurant having to reprint menus as well as the cost to their brand, if the consumer sees multiple price hikes they will be more upset than if there was one single large price hike.
This. Producer Price Index is as important as Consumer Price Index
This is a thing but not really as big as you would think. What costs are there for raising the prices of commodity goods like oil and gas? Not really any because their prices fluctuate so greatly already, yet these companies are posting insane profits and refuse to produce more to increase supply and lower prices.
Two weeks ago we had Fish and Chips at the beach for £10. Last weekend we went again and the large painted (or printed) sign had been replaced and they were £11. I found and old receipt and two years ago they were £8.20. I was joking to my wife that they should install LED signage (like at Gas Stations) so they can update the prices every week.
@@MrDuncl That would alleviate the menu printing cost but the cost to the brand of increasing prices so frequently would not be changed. It is upsetting to consumers to see prices change constantly. Gas is an inelastic good meaning you have to buy it regardless of price, fish and chips are much less inelastic.
@@Ulfgarr Gas might be more elastic than you think. I have been following the situation in the USA with interest. Suddenly cars that get reasonable gas mileage (e.g. Honda Civic) have become more desirable than V8 trucks that get less than 20MPG.
Hi EE, great vid as always!
Would you consider doing a vid on why the Euro's value is decreasing so much?
If the Russians turn the gas off, large parts of Germany, including its industry, will have to be powered by the few coal power stations they haven't demolished.
Thank you for the informative appraisal. I agree with a considerable proportion of your optimism, but my concern is about fulfilling grain contracts, especially corn contracts. And without the physical corn, how do they produce the 4000 products in the supermarket that rely on corn. I notice some products have commenced changing ingredients. But a large number will not be fortunate to be able to adapt. I would appreciate your opinion.
Well, given most of those products are just garbage that exists only to bolster profits. I think we just die.
Shrinkflation it is then.
Thank you for this video. As this was the topic in my econ class just this week and i didnt understand anything.
I love your channel. Keep it up! 👍
As a kid in the mid 80's (born in '69) ... I remember my grandparents reaping 10% to 18% on CD's. Today I'm paying inflated prices without earning anything (or next to nothing) on savings.
CD stands for Certificate of Depreciation. Buy equities, commodities, real estate or go home. CDs and money market accounts are useless as investment vehicles.
Fiat currency. Read The Bitcoin Standard
EE, very informative video and you make strong arguments, however, I wish I was as optimistic as you on your outlook for the future of the global economy. I appreciate that you touched upon corporations needlessly raising prices as a cause for inflation, however, I wish you would've focused more on how the Federal Reserve has been artificially pumping up the stock market and real estate market for years via Quantitative Easing. The Fed shows no signs of slowing down Quantitative Easing. Furthermore, Monetary policy does not address the supply chain shortages, which is half the battle and governments across the globe have shown to be futile in combating these shortages. I am usually not one for "doom and gloom", but this is an issue where I think the alarmists got it right.
The alarmists had black swan events salvage their theories. The global supply chains are recovering. Ending the war in Ukraine and Russian sanctions will be a key push.
Another big issue in supply chain recovery is China which is dealing with its own crisis and shutdown at any sight of Covid.
Quantitative Easing was supposed to stop.
I enjoyed the insertion of the short clip showing the lack of investment in production machinery at around the 3:20 min mark--- very subtle 🤣
Schmelzing's Eight Centuries of Global Real Interest Rates paper is a fun read! It could be the case that Secular Stagnation is occurring rather than Stagflation.
Great video.
This has been on my mind a lot and I have done a lot of reading and researching but I am just Econ-curious, far from an economist.
Real question:
What do you have to say about the investor share of profits vs wages share of profits?
There are union-oriented economists (obviously in a minority) who are arguing that the lack of disposable income is significantly causal, and fixing this would be a possible solution. It does, however, raise the question of winners and losers within the economy as a whole.
I think it’s a really really good thought. I mean think about it. If people have less and less disposable income, won’t many businesses start to fail/fire people thus making the problem worse?
yep, corporate profits are higher than ever, but that doesn't mean that they were negligible in the years up until now. for decades, investors have received most of the windfall of productivity gains, but now that workers want their share, suddenly it is WORKER compensation that is driving inflation ? my mind is boggled.
@@GAMELORD1308 thats why inflation rather than deflation is the target. deflation causes people to avoid spending long term, making businesses fail. inflation incentivises spending, especially to try and get returns, allowing businesses to grow.
In my opinion this is one of the reasons Tax cuts are probably the lest distortionary form of stimulus. It puts more money into consumer pockets while unlike stimulus payments, doesn't disincentivize work. Handing out checks has proven time and time again to be a recipe for disaster.
@@jonathanodude6660 I see you've missed the distinction between questions of inflation and relative spending power. Despite the dogma of popular economics, it is empirically documented that people who need things, but can't consistently afford them, do not consider interest rates or inflation when making necessary purchases. Even if your money would be worth twice as much next week, you have to pay for the bus to work *today*.
One reminded me of the other, but they are not the same.
Thank you for not getting on the clickbait bandwagon, your integrity is deeply appreciated.
Another great video!
I'm glad he mentioned the fact that industries are raising prices and using the excuse of "just keeping up with inflation" while reporting record profit margins i.e. Gas prices
hmmmm
I followed your advice sometime ago to short the economy by having a loan for a house at a fix rate. Thanks!
4:10 explains stagflation VERY well. Essentially our current situation is everyone is unable to cut back on their spending because theyve already cut back as much as possible due to the past 10 years of rising rents and the cost of basic necessities. The extremely high taxes we pay now dont help either..
very high quality as usual
please keep up these economics explainer videos - they're awesome!
As someone who suffers from severe anxiety and sometimes struggles to know who to believe your videos tend to bring me back down to the real world and leave me feeling better about life in general.
Thanks so much for what you do!
this video SUCKS tho.
Hang in there! I have "episodes" of mild anxiety as well, and "real" videos like this help me too...
I've been watching since you did sketchup tutorials. Seeing your subs hit nearly 2 mil, I gotta say, Congratulations and thank you for the education!
Excellent video once again
I don’t want the economy to get back to normal. I want it to be understood how stupid it is for it to have been running as it had.
I'd love to see why deflation is that bad. From my perspective it makes assets worth less but in time of ever growing wealth inequality and over-priced assets, i don't see it as that bad.
Deflation is extremely bad. Imagine a world where goods get cheaper the more you wait. That's a world where there is no incentive to buy anything, collapsing the economy.
@@christopherpearson6105 In other words you buy only what you need and are not overflowing with useless junk you were tricked to buy. Collapsing economy is speculation same as saying that economy does not have problems now. Very long term negative inflation does not make sense even for me as you would have to shrink wages too ...?
But after periods of long positive inflation periods, pretty much last 50 years, which works in my eyes as K recovery ... ? I cannot help it but pumping money to economy always saves asses to people owning stuff screwing poor even more and making it harder to step up.
@@pavel1269 Here's an Economics Explained video that can explain it much better than I: czcams.com/video/ErUQnd-YFGg/video.html&ab_channel=EconomicsExplained
In short deflation puts all portions of a supply chain in jeopardy at the same time. When resources such as gas become less expensive to buy over time, it disincentives putting in orders for those things. The chip shortage was in part caused by demand deflation during the early stages of the pandemic. There simply wasn't enough demand for computer parts so production shut down, when it started up again it took months to get operations moving again..
When people don't buy things industries stop moving, that's key here. A single consumer deciding to not buy the consumer good they would normally buy has little effect. Everyone deciding to wait till later at the same time makes people lose jobs, have less money, and further increase deflation.
There's a reason the inflation goal is 2%. If there wasn't any inflation people would spend much less money and the economy would grind ton a halt.
It's bad for businesses, but for the average person, it would be a godsend right now. We need a bit of deflation at this point.
I’m so impressed with your comment! I was actually going to comment the same thing and I found yours instead! Deflation is not and would not be BAD! What happens to Bitcoin or Gold when there’s less to go around for each person? Nothing! It’s a lie! Deflation of the US currency would be awesome and we are being lied to!! FIAT currency is evil and corrupt.
Like always, the Golden standard of macro economic content on CZcams!
@Economic Explained±¹⁷⁶⁵⁹⁸⁶¹⁷⁶² not today bot!
Thanks for this interesting video. Better to fear more than how bad it may get and be relieved than to not fear enough and get blindsided
Just call whatever happens "transitory" and don't worry about it.
thats genius
Finally a big channel talks about Stagflation! Good to get this info out.
just call it what it is.. currency collapse
great content thanks
THANKS EE
is deflation REALLY a problem? I'm skeptical.
It’s only a problem if you use money as a stand in for actual wealth and capabilities. (Which we do)
The actual potential and ability to produce doesn’t really go away except in cases of mass casualties (thanks covid and Crazy bald pink man) Just our tired method of keeping score of it makes the accounting of production stop working and so it tanks actual production of actual things we need and use to be alive.
Well generally deflation comes with unemployment. I don't know about you but being unemployed tends to be bad for most folks in a capitalist society.
@@susanlippy1009 you need to make over 200k a year to afford any home where i live.. and then you got a 25-30 year mortgage to pay off.... id rather deal with deflation any day
been saying this too my mates and teachers for 2 months and for some reason they wont belive me. thanks for a good explanation and video
The fact that we can see a recession coming does NOT in fact mean we'll be better prepared for it. Sadly many major disasters afflicted upon humans come despite lengthy and credible warning.
I guess EE is the sort of channel where one should expect to be spammed by imitator scam artists. Respect lost, EE.
As your loyal subscribers, we demand vids more often!
From 2012 to 2019, I was only losing 2 to 3% of my purchasing power due to inflation and small pay increases. Now it is 10 to 12%. It now looks and feels like megastagflation. If only politicians and the privileged government workers had to face the megastagflation I face, it would be worth the pain. Funny how the government never faces a reduction in pay.
Especially since most of them don’t even need the pay because they’re already rich.
I know many people who work in mid level government positions and they're taking a hit too
Well, we might have been able to avoid some of this if we elected Hilary as president.
Instead we got Donald to set us up for failure. He sabotage and soften up Ukraine for Putin for 4 straight years.
Putin launch a full scale attack as soon as he lost his inside man.
Q: Is it possible to "flatten the curve" of a stagflation?
(what I mean are any measures that will make us go through it less severely but for a longer period of time)
That’s what every economist is thinking
It’s been 40 years already. This rapidly increasing oscillation of instability is because we keep trying to drag it out.
@@mzaite i agree, we keep laying more track in front of the runaway train
@@Knotaro_bot Nobody wants to be the one holding the hot potato. So just put it off for the next administration.
if you try to "flatten the curve" you will end up causing even more inflation in the long run.
I feel inclined to put out that while the Consumer Price Index is 9.1%, the cost increase consumers face, the Producer Price Index is at 11.3% which means businesses are paying more to make the things we buy. I find this is an indicator that businesses are not raising prices under the cover of inflation as suggested at 7.57 . btw the numbers are from the US Bureau of Labor statistics if you would like to look them up.
Finally a new video! ❤️
Raise taxes on corporations...
When the profit margins start to work against them, they will get less greedy an prices will come down.
Inflation being caused by price gouging. Companies collude together to keep prices artificially high. That's what happens when you have only a few companies in each sector.
Simply a genius...
could you do a video about Keynes and John Stuart mill ?
"Reserve bank" for Australia or US?
As an Australian, I'm happy with your optimism. As recent unemployment rate is at its lowest level, assuming you think that our recent low level migration intake is not relevant.
I'm not sure other country shares such views.
I hated economy in school but you managed to make it really interesting and entertaining
Much better then the video I watched earlier today (from about a year ago), about hyperinflation murdering my unborn children in their sleep. Keep up the better quality content, it's much appreciated.
13:39 this man's eyes just cracks me up. How are stock clips or videos even made like this?!
great stuff
You cant make things better with stimulus when bodies are looking to capitalize on the extra income of the consumer. Especially when these bodies create artificial supply chain constraints
The stimulus just becomes a known value to harvest. It exacerbates an information imbalance already over exploited in a market place with corporations. They know exactly how much consumers have to spend. And set their prices and productivity accordingly to get as much of it as they can.
That prices can go up while demand stays low is a perfect example that what we're taught about economics is wrong - that #MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) is correct.
Demand has just started to drop off. People are exhausting their savings and credit, not enough time has passed for it to cause deflation yet. It will indeed cause prices to drop and also cause jobs to be cut. Already done buissnesses are slowing down hiring. If it continues then they lay off. It starts small and it grows. The main issue with modern theory is that simply increasing dollars does nothing to increase production of actual goods thus prices spike and wages don't. Eventually markets cool as people go broke. If you don't increase production, your not increasing jobs. If folks don't have jobs they don't have money. So sure you can keep increasing the money and keep borrowing but eventually it will crash as it's not backed by production. During times when the economy is strong and things are good it's fine during worldwide disruption and chaos such as we have now, it's bad, real bad.
Thank for watching send a direct massage right away i will love to hear your thoughts on it and for more enlightenment☝️☝️❤️
So a good question to ask if it comes to it, what's the best way to negotiate with your lender, if the interest rate goes to high to manage?
I don't know enough about how it all works but the only idea I've been able to come up with would be to see if we can cap the rate so it falls within our affordable repayment limit but add on a flat amount to the mortgage, especially due to that our repayments are already higher than needed that we will need less than 30yrs to repay it all, so there's some years worth of wiggle room but idk, I'm Australian so hopefully our country with the good government we have will help prevent it ever getting to that point.
Just in general talk to your lender and don't try to sweep problems under the carpet. In the U.K. I always think of 2008 as the recession that never happened. The mid 1990s was a real recession with houses being repossessed left right and centre and dropping in price every month. I stayed in mine but it took ten years to sell it for what I paid for it.
He says the FED with pick monetary value stability over the economy. I hope this is the case. The economy will bounce back, but don't destroy the currency.