Where’s the Recession? The Four Economic Factors Keeping It Off | WSJ
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- čas přidán 1. 06. 2024
- Where’s the recession we were promised? In the summer of 2022, The Wall Street Journal surveyed economists from around the country and more than 60% said they predicted a recession within the next year. It wasn’t a wild assumption - the indicators were indicating. GDP was down as the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates to fight inflation. Which, historically, usually brings a recession.
Yet now in the summer of 2023… where is it? WSJ looks at the four main economic factors that have so far kept the recession at bay. Though that doesn’t mean we’re in the clear.
0:00 Why a recession was predicted
1:07 The usual three suspects were strong
2:50 A “mortgage winter” buffered rising interest rates
3:50 Why the recession watch isn’t over
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#Recession #Economy #WSJ
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With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly-which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125k bond/stocck portfolio.
The market is volatile at this time, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
very true, I started investing before the pandemic and that same year I pulled a profit of about $900k with no prior investing experience, basically all I was doing was seeking guidance to make a from a financial-advisorr, you can be passively involved with the aid of a professional.
Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one.
The decision on when to pick an Adviser is a very personal one. I take guidance from Vivian Carol Gioia to meet my growth goals and avoid mistakes, she's well-qualified and her page can be easily found on the net.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
The 1% of rich Americans think of how to invest their money to increase their wealth during the recession. While the 99% of struggling hard-luck Americans think of how to survive without food and daily necessities in the recession and the coming hyperinflation. I am just about to make my first index fund purchase via vanguard. I intend to invest long term. just getting slightly stuck on how I balance my percentage portfolio between equity vs bonds. Low risk is good for me. Any tips
You are absolutely right ,firstly I believe money in the bank is not money because it is bond to inflation and losses values overtime, You have to be well disciplined to achieve success and save before you spend Lastly success does not happen overnight it takes time, dedication and self discipline
money is a liability, not an asset. You have to exchange it for assets that represent real VALUE. Real estate - properties for rent. Stocks (dividends). Bonds (interest), funds, REITs (interest), intellectual property, The aid of an institutional or basic financial advisor's cannot be over expressed. I started saving and investing in 1989 at the age of 20... I am 54 today and have 2.2 million in my retirement account, 135k liquid and I trade securities with 50-55k
I'm bombarded with the don't sit on it during the inflation, I wanted to jump in 8/22 and did nothing. So far this year I think I need to get my feet wet but I stopped listening and taking financial advise from CZcamsrs, because at the end of the day, I end up with a bunch of confusing stories. Have you always had guidance?
I've shuffled through investment consultants and yes, they can be positively impactful to an individual's portfolio, have been in touch with 'Vivian Carol Gioia, over a decade now her honest approach gives me complete ownership and control of my positions, and her rates are incredibly affordable
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Recession is often the result of external factors, and it appears that the United States is losing its grip as a federal reserve currency.
With a decreasing ability to control inflation and a reduction in stock and oil trading, it seems that a new multilateral world order is on the horizon.
It's important to keep in mind that investing is a zero-sum game with both good and bad days. However, by spending and investing wisely and diversifying your holdings, you can minimize risks and maximize gains. Hiring a knowledgeable investment advisor with a wide range of options can help you achieve this and leave little room for regrets.
I personally worked with a Financial advisor to diversify my 401k portfolio across multiple markets, resulting in over $980k in net profit from high dividend yielding stocks. With the right guidance, you too can make informed investment decisions and achieve your financial goals.
Would you mind recommending a specialist with a variety of investment options? This is extremely rare, and I eagerly await your response
She’s Natalie Lynn Fisk, my consultant. Since then, she has devoted section and leave attention to safeguards that I have been keeping an eye out for. You can locate her information online, on the off chance that you're interested. I made no regrets about substantially adhering to her exchange strategy.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
We experienced the peak of our era, and now it is gone. Recession is tanking everything including 401K. My retirement equities portfolio of $750K is in the reds. I keep losing because of inflation. This world will fall to the corrupt rulers in the same way that Rome did. I'm sorry if you're thinking about retiring and you're worried that your pension won't be enough to meet the rising cost of living. Horrible foreign policies everywhere, bad regulatory policy, bad fiscal policy, and bad energy policy.
For retirees and those close to retirement, I believe it's particularly challenging. All those years of labor only to lose it all to a problem you weren't responsible for, my regrets to everyone retiring during this time.
I'm very worried about the future and where we're all heading, especially in terms of money and how to get by. I'm considering making my first investment in the stock market, but how can I do so given that the market has been in a mess for the majority of the year?
After the pandemic, things became extremely difficult, which is precisely when I sought a consultant's counsel. I've been investing on my own for nearly 3 years and have built up a stagnant reserve of $280K to $570K in just over 24 months.
@@Jaffcardwell I’m in dire need of guidance so i can salvage my portfolio due to the massive dips and come up with better strategies. How can I reach this advisor?
I encountered Julie Anne Hoover through my wife, and I emailed her. She is guiding me. Since then, she has given me chances to buy and sell the stocks in which I'm interested in. You can hunt her up online if you require care supervision.
Recessions are an inherent aspect of the economic cycle, and the key is to get ready and adapt. I entered the workforce during a downturn in 2008. My initial job out of college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Presently, I hold the position of VP at a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, operate my own company, and have grown my net worth by $500k in the past four years.
With supervision from an investment advis0r, I diversified my $401k portfolio across various markets, resulting in a net profit of over $850k within just a few months, thanks to high dividend-yielding stocks, ETFs, and bonds.
How can I get in touch with your advisor? I'm interested in finding a more effective investment tactics for my savings.
My financial advisor is Stacey Lee Decker, a highly qualified expert in portfolio diversification. Research her credentials, she's a valuable resource for financial supervision.
After reading your insights, I researched her full name and found her online webpage. Unfortunately, my portfolio took a significant hit, so holding it longer seems unwise. I will look to schedule a call with her.
What I like about Stacey is her willingness to listen, collaborate and educate always. She is impressive indeed.
Economists have predicted 12 out of the last 3 recessions.
Nice!
😂
Almost seems like macroeconomics is not as easy as people think, if even experts are having a hard time...
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
Despite utilizing the correct strategies and possessing the right assets, there can still be variations in the investment returns among different investors. It is important to acknowledge that experience plays a crucial role in investment success. Personally, I realized the significance of this and sought the guidance of a market adviser, which enabled me to substantially grow my account to nearly a million. I strategically withdrew my profits just before the market correction, and now I am taking advantage of the buying opportunities once again.
@@jeffery_Automotive I’ve actually been thinking of reaching a brokerage-adviser, my 401k and stocks been losing everything it's gained since 2019, please who's your Adviser
julie Anne Hoover is the analyst/investment-adviser. She has been of great help and her tutelage has brought me to a higher understanding of profit generation. You can look up her name on the net for her page and reach out. She Understands the job perfectly
@@jeffery_Automotive Benevolence, this reference seems valid.. Just inputted her full name on my browser and found her site without sweat, 20 years of experience is certainly striking! very much appreciate it
Rather than attempting to predict future recessions and risking financial losses, a more effective strategy is to build a well-diversified portfolio that can withstand various market conditions. This approach has allowed some individuals to consistently generate substantial returns, averaging around 150K every quarter as reported by Bloomberg.
That’s crazy, I’m just doing everything wrong with my portfolio
I understand your concerns, my friend. I recommend exploring passive index fund investing and expanding your knowledge in this area. Personally, I experienced both successes and challenges when initially seeking a reliable passive income. To navigate this, I sought the guidance of an expert advisor, and by following their advice, I invested $30k in value stocks and digital assets. As a result, I've seen a significant increase of $200k in my portfolio, and I feel prepared for whatever lies ahead.
@@Lemariecooper That's truly remarkable! I would greatly appreciate if you could share some information about your financial advisor. I'm also interested in making positive changes to my finances this year, so any insights would be highly valuable to me.
@@Erikkurilla01 Portfolio diversification is crucial, and having an advisor to guide you in this process is essential. I work with STEPHANIE KOPP MEEKS as my advisor, and she is highly experienced and well-known in the financial markets. You can easily find more information about her through a quick search, and her expertise can greatly benefit your investment strategy.
@@Lemariecooper I appreciate the tip you provided. When I searched for her, STEPHANIE KOPP MEEKS 's website appeared on the first page, and I thoroughly reviewed her resume, which was impressive. As a result, I reached out to her by sending a message, and now I eagerly await her response.
Even the high net worth and ultra high net worth people worry about money, just in different ways. There's no way around inflation. There's no way around recessions. Stop looking for a solution that doesn't exist and invest more money. Major indexes booked their worst yearly performance since 2008 thanks to drivers like the recession, war, hiked interest rate and inflation which so far doesn’t seem to be easing off, so I’m left wondering what 2023 has in store for us investors, I’ve been sitting on over $745K equity from a home sale and I’m not sure where to go from here, is it a good time to buy or do I wait?
Find a way to take advantage of the current market condition, it seems that we are moving in the opposite direction and that will not be good for anyone.
These market uncertainties are why I don't base my judgments and decisions in the market on rumors and hearsay. I got the best of me in 2020 which made me occupy a worthless position in the market, I had to reorganize my entire portfolio using an advisor, before I started to see significant results happen in my portfolio. I am still using the same advisor and I have netted over $1.5 million in 2 years, whether it's a bull or bear market, both generate good profits, it all depends on where you're looking.
I find your situation fascinating. Would you be willing to suggest the advisor you've work with?
Renowned for her proficiency and expertise in the financial market, “JILL MARIE CARROLL” my financial advisor, holds a broad understanding of portfolio diversification and is recognized as an authority in this domain.
Thank you for the suggestion. I looked her up and emailed her through her website. I'm hoping she responds soon.
Recessions are where multi-millionaires are created. I feel for the older generation, but if you are young or middle age, you should do everything possible to double and triple your investments.
Recession is gradually going to become part of us and due to that fact any money you keep in cash or in a low-interest account declines in value each year. Investing is the only way to make your money grow and unless you have an exceptionally high income, investing is the only way most people will ever have enough money to retire..
An obvious way to invest for a recession is to buy shares in businesses that are likely to experience steady demand even in a downturn. Typically, those are consumers staple, utilities and healthcare companies. But of course, such decisions can’t be made by an average joe, a financial counsellor is highly recommended in making this decisions..
That’s why I make it a point to speak with a financial counsellor before choosing any investments. I’ve been using one since the pandemic, using profits oriented tactics and minimizing risks as a buffer against inevitable downtrends. In addition they have access to insider knowledge and analysis, making failure virtually impossible for them. I’ve made about $800k working with John Desmond Heppolette, my financial counsellor for over three years now.
I curiously made a goo-gle research of his full names after reading what you shared, I came across his web-page on-line. I’ve heard of people netting hundreds of thousands this red season I’m really glad to see this. Thanks for the information..
Working with a financial counsellor who has worked in a solid financial firm for a long time, such as John D. Heppolette, will actually set you up for success in life.
We are eating the middle class, to feed the stock market. We are in a recession you just can't see it in the stockmarket.
True. Rents and real estate prices are destroying the average American's ability to gain a foothold. The middle class doesn't realize that they're little more than pack animals and soon their burden will double and their feed will be cut in half.
Recession isn't defined by any stock market movements. One of the biggest indicators is GDP growth or actually negative GDP growth over 2 quarters. But just that isn't enough and it's the NBER's job to look at other indicators and officialy declare a recession.
Ìt's just awful and cripling to the middle class who move the economy
@@Amylou690 I think, that the real problem are the housing prices. It just keeps going up, wages go up too, but not as fast as to compensate for the growing prices in the housing market... The state should fund the construction of apartment complexes and ease zoning regulations to cool down the high prices, but that would be "socialsm!", so its not gonna happen...
The recession will come as soon as everyone is convinced that there won't be a recession.
Recession hype is hot air. All the demands that existed pre-pandemic still exist. Economy will only go up. So sorry to break it to you. The economy survived Trump and the Pandemic, it will survive the right wing doom-sayers and inflation hawks that have been praying for a storm.
Actually, a recession is more likely to come as soon as people start thinking and feeling and saying that there's a recession coming. Like the Word of God speaking the World into existence, today's doomsday prophets have the supernatural power to speak a Recession into existence. If they instead are more positive, and speak positively, this will engender confidence, consumer spending, leading to producer investment, an expanding job market and tax base, bul markets, and kill the recession coming.
I would like to call it the big surprise 😂
love the educated comments from economists
Yes that's what happens, from last year all the media covered that recession is on the corner due to which people and companies started saving money which eventually led to optimization of business. Hence we are not seeing recession.
Every time we've had a recession for the last few 'no one expected it' we hear everything is fine. Then boom.
Look at the loans, at 4:10 - it’s expected. I don’t get why WSJ pushes the idea that people have savings and can afford stuff while loans are skyrocketing harder than in 2008
@@aliancemd agreed and watching credit card debt skyrocket is nerve wracking too. Sends a signal that people aren't really affording things they're just pushing it off till later.
I own a company that is directly impacted on people’s spending habits. I can tell you right now beyond any doubt we are what I call a “stable recession.” Normally, recessions are very obvious and have a visible impact on every level of the economy. However, stable recessions are very different. Stable recessions are when indicators such as the GDP and the Unemployment Rate are good, but the average person still feels the hurt. So high level corporations, economists, government officials, news outlets, etc will tell you we are in a strong economy, but the everyday consumer will say, “what the heck are you talking about?! We are in a recession!”
That’s what we are in now. People’s budgets have tighten so much that my sales have plummeted in half. The good news is that amount is much more predictable than it was last year. Last year there was so much uncertainty in the air that spending habits changed from week to week. However, this year, people aren’t as afraid. They already know money is tight so they’ve already stabilized their budgets. So while my overall sales are half what they were last year, it’s a very consistent and stable half.
I work for a company that is affected more so by corporate spending. Past two quarters as a whole we are down 20% yoy per each quarter. Atleast where I worked I didn’t feel that. This quarter I feel like it’s slow. Companies orders promised orders has ended and they want to lower their stock even more. It’ll be an interesting one
We're in a recession period. Government lying as they always do. My "side hustle" sales down 25% this year.
@@BenHeckHackswe would be in a recession if you lost your job. Your side hustle is extra income
You literally said nothing clear with all that
What industry are you in? Down by half? That's a lot.
Strongly disagree that people have lots of saving during pandemic and from stimulus checks. That few thousand dollars would not last that long. If people did not spend during pandemic, how could we have this inflation? People are literally spending on debts to keep up with inflation.
They did have excess savings from stimulus checks, but I think it was only a small part of the inflation that occurred over that period. Mostly it was supply chain problems and the Fed not raising interest rates fast enough because they thought the inflation was transitory.
Well debt rising is partly due to higher rates no?
Don't forget the billions given to state and local governments for infrastructure renewal as part of the recovery from COVID - by the time it arrived the economy was already recovering on it's own. And the lags on checks given to individuals meant a lot of people just got a nice little freebie after they'd returned to work. Both of those are inflationary. But the reality is that a lot of this is due to world events - energy and food prices have risen worldwide as a result of the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, widespread droughts have caused food prices to rise - economies are globally connected these days. That's great if you want to buy cheap iPhones made in China but not so great when you are competing on the world market for grain, or rice etc. And those causes of inflation aren't really addressed by the Fed raising interest rates - at least not directly.
The inflation started as we emerged from the pandemic and people stated trying to buy everything they had done without. Supply chains can’t switch on a dime, so they were very slow to respond, and prices went up on the few things that were available.
PPP fraud was estimated to be $200B.
I don’t understand when they say: “people had a lot of money in their savings account coming out of pandemic thanks to stimulus money”. They gave $1200 per person every 9-4 months(3 payments in total) but make it sound like they were giving $100K a month, did I miss big payments somehow? How come they think that money is sitting in people’s bank accounts? Are we living in different dimensions?
People were not spending as much because everything was shut down. How do you think so many people were able to buy houses cash during the pandemic?
@@celderian more than 60% of people in the us live paycheck to paycheck, more than 30% of people do not have emergency funds for rainy days, the reason why didn’t spend money is because they didn’t have the money, not that businesses were shut down. People needed money to pay for utilities, food and rent, those payments never stopped, those businesses were always open. People bought houses for cash because they got loans/government assistance money(different than stimulus checks), which they used for different purposes ( buying properties for cash) other than “helping their businesses”.
Dress it up how you want, but this economy sucks.
For you maybe, but not for me 😅
@davidmclean5895 The video is about the American as a whole.
Still better than 2008-2010
@@davidmclean5895 I'm alive, and can bench 225.....so I'm better than you.
@@pavelow235 I benched 235 last week.
I am amazed that so many people have little knowledge of history!
If you look at the past economic cycles, each time the central banks have done rapid increases of the interest rate (near zero to 5.25% in 2023), this resulted in a recession.
There is a 6 to 9-month lag, between the rises in interest rates and their effects on the economy. In the next months, these interest rates increase with be hitting the economy one after the other.
From January 2007 to August 2007, the stock market had a bull market rally just before the big free fall of September 2007.
That isn’t true at all, and if it was, we should’ve seen signs of a fall by now
@@BrightWendigo They need to talk to ordinary people who suffer badly. We will have to deal with bad recession very soon.
@@BrightWendigoit is
There's a chance that these prices won't be offered ever again. In the middle of chaos, there is always opportunity if you have a great vision for it. I've been able to increase the value of my portfolio to seven figures by focusing on important blue chip and top etf sectors based on performance and predicted growth. My approach with my F.A. Even during a recession, having Lisa Rosa Cavanagh manage my portfolio provides me with the finest results.
Amazing stuff, indeed. That's a lot of money you made, for sure.
I googled the lady you mentioned, and left a mail after going through her credentials. I'm willing to make consultations to improve my portfolio..
All this while a recession is 'imminent". got me wondering if imminent has two meanings to it. do not give in to your fears people. my two cents
Great video, ty
I still expect a recession to happen. It usually takes about 1-2 years after interest rate hikes are done for it to begin.
“People had a lot of savings coming out of the Pandemic…”
WSJ at it again.
“Wages grew faster than inflation…” Yeah for one month out of 37. Were still stuck with all the inflation that accrued.
Geniuses.
“A lot of savings” and then at 4:10 they show that people actually don’t have “savings”, they are just spending the same and going harder into debt
@@aliancemdnot to mention credit card debt is extremely high.
Yeah. This is the left trying to hide the bidenomics is a disaster
I heard that Dollar General reported loss because people steal things nowadays. Also, one brokerage firm mentioned record number of people are getting money out of their 401K. There are many such minor things that are happening in today's economy that never happened before. This makes things different this time around.
So what you're saying it's not really different, just the govt tellings more lies.
67 percent are living from paycheck to paycheck. I seen an article from yesteryear, the people who pay attention to things noted that the people's savings accounts were to large, way too much money they said, they wanted that savings money...fast forward fifteen or so years, they have it. They know what they are doing. I look at it this way, I have a few remaining pieces on the chess board, they have almost all of theirs because they cheat, it is hard trying to win a game with so little pieces left.
As a vfx artist we are facing layoffs past couple of months and the near future of our business are very uncertain position, because of writers strick. I am expecting bankruptcy of some companys
I love how people that weren't laid off say Hey I guess there wasn't a recession. Ha, yeah I guess not for you.
@@chrislanejones I did not got fired 'yet'.
Technical 3 quater degrease in GDP is called ression. But I am sure there will be one in next year.
It was always supply inflation. Once supply shock went gone, inflation started slowing and recession odds faded, despite increasing interest rates.
Yeah most us citizens are living paycheck to paycheck in fact more are now than were 3 years ago because of the cost of gas has risen a lot as has the cost of food partly because of the statement before it because do you know what it takes to run tractors in a field and trucks on the road diesel and whenever the cost of diesel goes up so does housing because what cuts down all the trees and puts them on trucks heavy equipment that uses diesel and what carries all the trees to the sawmill to make into lumber and also carries them to the store trucks that use diesel so when the cost fuel rises because you are importing it from overseas instead of drilling the in the US which you can then do two things with either use for the American consumer or bring it to the global market and force the Arabs to lower the price to stay competitive but when you stop the drilling on us soil you lose that leverage and you have to pay whatever the Arabs tell you
What is inflation? People were feed and fat in 1932. Recession= a crude measure of quality of life. Debatable.
Nice
Very positive analysis.
Thanks.
news flash. the stock market is not the economy
Irrelevant. The stock market hasn't reached or surpassed it's 2021 highs of the 36,000 range on the Dow Jones (which largely tracks with the Nasdaq and S&P 500) after 2 years. We've basically declined to the 29,000 range, grew back to the 33,000-35,000 range and haven't moved higher since. Not to mention the fact that this video never brings the stock market up to begin with.
It surely is not.
I envy those that believe our economy is in any good shape. My Healthcare premiums went up 17%. And it's going to go up again next year. I'm in California. My studio now costs $1824, before was $1200 pre-pandemic.
Local economy < the whole economy.
Granted inflation is hurting us all the job market is kinda crazy right now
Thank everyone who wore a mask and didn’t resist lock downs for the permanent increase in your rent
It's a positive indication that your primary concern lies in your healthcare premiums rather than your expenses for food, rent, and employment. This suggests that your financial situation is solid in the short to medium term.
Don't forget sales tax, car insurance, and fuel/food. :( cali got me dead rn
I don't see how your healthcare premium and rent has anything to do with the macroeconomic environment. The fed looks at data from the entire US, not the specific bills you are paying as an individual that could well depend on your personal circumstances or local prices
With time I am more and more certain of one thing: nobody knows what is going to happen in the future.. its basically just guesses.
Correct! We might know we gonna be dead but don't know how it happened.
It’s just educated best guesses, nobody can see the future. It has always been like that for everything in this world due to human limitations
I have been going to the same hair salon for 19 years. My monthly haircut was $17.00, and I tipped $5.00.
Now, my haircut is $27.00, and I tip $5.00. When I need to spend money on the necessities .... I get a haircut every other month.
How can you contribute the hedging to stimulus money and not increasing debt spending, you mentioned that debts are on the rise, ie credit cards, so is it credit cards or stimulus. I think cc
Money is not meant to control people, rather it is meant to be put to work producing more money for you. You cannot build wealth without putting money in its rightful place.
Even with the current dip in the market I'm still glad I can smile back at my portfolio of $12,500 built from my weekly trade.
First profit grew rapidly and that has made me invest without the fear of losing, I got four of my friends that I introduce to him and they are making profits just like me..
Expert Dewayne Cox never seems to surprise me 😄 i also trade with him, his strategies are top notch and i don't joke with him.
How can I reach him for quality portfolio management ?
Thanks for your swift response. I already have the App downloaded I'll contact him immediately.
Best indicator of a recession is the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread which is now at -0.78%. It has now been the longest and deepest inversion in the History of the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield curve.
WE ARE IN A RECESSION - WE HAD TWO SUCCESSIVE QUARTERS OF NEGATIVE GDP GROWTH. THIS IS RIDICULOUS THIS IS THE WSJ report is accurately
Economists show that they learn from previous mistakes. Hands down the best economic performance all around the world is happening in the United States ever since the pandemic began
true that!
Well we do have to pay for the 10 trillion dollars in debt we went for this "economic performance".
@@objectivethinker3225 it’s not the FED. Governments is in debt.
@@algo2017 Yes, it's fiscal spending and not monetary policy that is the primary problem causing inflation. However, the Fed has to buy bonds from the treasury when there are no buyers which has occurred recently.
Real wages lower than before pandemic. An amazing economy lol.
We are in it.
2.57 “ this one is different “ = we don’t know what the fun we are talking about, but we still do bcoz you listen 😂😂😂😂😂😂
This seems like the worst period.
Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down
Find stocks with yields that exceed the market and stocks that, at the very least, follow the long-term market trend. However, you should get guidance from a financial advisor if you want to create a successful long-term plan...
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one.
Vivian Carol Gioia is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find her handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
The govt spending is the reason. Spending over trillions in debt. 😡😡😡
Gov spending stops recessions. Recessions usually happen when gov spending drops
stop thinking about our national debt like it's credit card debt. The United States can and will grow faster than the interest and inflation of government bonds, this is how superpowers grow faster than their current market situation can allow. Taking on debt isn't even primarily china, if anything japan owns the larger share.
Thank you for interviewing good experts on this issue. I think this video is good quality and short, and easy to share to others to paint a realistic picture. The only big fact I thought that was missing is that rate hikes have a lagging effect of about 6-24 months. This is the primary reason why one can’t say we’re truly out of the woods on the recession risks yet. J Powell has made this comment several times in the past, and made it a part of the reason why he spiked rates quickly, and has decided to hold them until he/they can analyze future data.
🤣🤣🤣
But anyways on that 3/4 some of that's just one letter spacing rotation offset and dictionary vocabulary and subject announcements and directions sometimes in notifications like with the question mark and! Got and stuff turned the wrong directions
I think it’s prevented on a very simple basis of greater financial intelligence of the population than ever before. It used to just be stock traders and hedge funds who understood the markets. The rest of us were along for the ride. But the internet age has changed things. It didn’t by ‘07/‘08, but nowadays it’s really hard for any financial trend not to be noticed and adjusted for by 100 million people controlling their own finances. Adjusting their spending better. Demanding higher wages when they see inflation going up. I think the way we react to changes in the financial situation of the country is just much quicker than it used to be, and so instead of long slow bubbles growing until the moment of a pop, we get greater volatility in daily markets where each piece of news can spike or deflate the market. Every statement from Xi or movement on the battlefields of Ukraine fluctuates the market, because we’re all watching the global markets and geopolitical situation more closely and in real time without needing a single news source to tell us what’s going on.
that's why the only other way to keep us holding the bag is to spread misinformation :)
I think you're overestimating the financial knowledge of an average american adult, a significant portion of them (maybe majority i daresay) are in reality financially illiterate and by that i mean they don't know the basics of personal finance, people don't know when they should use credit cards and about proper investments. There is a reason why we have such a large credit card debt and a big chunk of people living wages to wages with very little savings ( even when u don't count people at the lowest strata of society), its because people don't save for rainy day, spend more than they should and use financial products like credit cards without knowing the basics of how they work and how they should use them
@@exelrode You're both right. He brought up the fact that 100 million US adults are financially literate. That means the majority, about 180 million (330 million Americans of which roughly 50 million are kids), are financially illiterate or semi literate. America's population is one of those rare cases where both of these facts can be true at the same time.
@@luke_cohen1 Well I wasn't really using statistics to make my argument but i am not talking about kids and senior citizens when i say most people are financially ignorant, i am speaking from what I have read from various sources and what i have experienced in my career interacting with thousand of people and hearing their experiences. Don't take my word for it, just read on this topic and see what any financial expert has to say about this. Also you're forgetting that not all people in the US population count are US citizens, some of my colleagues who are working in really high paying jobs in tech and finance are immigrants (just took residency not US citizenship). My point was that people in our country don't have enough financial knowledge, infact basics of personal finance should be taught in school along with topics on health and how to build habit of excercising and basic tech skills which are very important in this age
This exact argument was brought in 2007, 2001 and 1997. It wasn't true then, it's not true now. The reason is simple, IQ is distributed in a bell curve, greed is in human nature and the main driver of markets and the economy are interest rates. None of this has changed.
I think fluctuations in gas prices and their impact on causing a recession is overlooked. Gas prices have a much direct impact than IRs.
All of the reasons given why a recession didn’t occur were also true one year ago. So, either this is backwards reasoning, using data to fit the present trend, or the economists who forecast a recession we’re looking at other data.
Or, it’s just a consequence of forecasting. You forecast based on a limited range of already past data and make an educated conclusion of how things seem to be on track to play out.
When the weatherman predicts rain but it doesn’t come, is that because the weatherman was looking at different data because he said the same thing yesterday? Or is it just probability worked out differently.
Complex systems, like the economy and the weather, have few easy answers. But at least with the weather, our expecting rain doesn’t change its probability of happening.
@@saahiliyer11 The rain always comes it is the percentage of land affected by the rain that varies.
Don't forget the extra cash people have on hand from not being required to make student loan payments. Theoretically you could put said money into the market or a high-yield savings account to earn interest to make paying back easier, but I'd be willing to wager that isn't happening for most.
Yeah, that implies that people have the money they would’ve been paying to student loans. But with the rise of food and rent, most are barely scraping by, living paycheck to paycheck
@@michaellong6532 what I'm saying is that has added to the inflation since people are using said money for other things, such as rent and mortgages.
AND SPEAKING ABOUT STUDENT LOANS - this fall ALL OF WHAT YOU MENTIONED CHANGES !
Look it up .
Peace ☮️
@@rudeawakening3833 using the words "look it up" makes it seem like you don't know what you're talking about. But if you're referring to loans payments resuming, you're correct. It hasn't started yet and is long overdue.
@@RedWingsninetyone
I’ll rethink using those choice of words .
Thanks for calling me out with respect .
Much respect back at you - and I stand corrected .
I’m not looking for an excuse , or wanting to speak out of both sides of my mouth ; when I state facts , I have
“ allowed “ keyboard warriors and trolls to attack me , and shame on ME .
That’s on them .
God Bless .
During a recession, many stocks and assets may be undervalued. I believe now is an ideal time to capitalize on the market for long-term gains, but it wouldn't hurt to know how to make short-term profit. I've heard of investors making over $400k profit in this current sinking market, and I'm looking for ideas on how to earn similar profits.
Since the market is currently unstable, I would advise you to hire a financial advisor who can give you entry and exit points for the share or exchange-traded fund you want to invest in.
The distinct separation of the Investor Class from the Average American appears to limit the conversation to a small number of Individuals who seem to desire profits at any cost.
More like reduction than recession because there is no coming back up from this. There is no historical precedent for this under our current economic institutions.
Why does the media never discuss the other tried and true method of reducing inflation, raising taxes on those doing the spending? The Fed needs the power to adjust tax rates slightly up or down to reduce or increase spending in an incremental, controlled way. That won't happen, but it makes more sense than fighting inflation on the backs of working people.
I was thinking along the same lines, but remember that the fed can enact monetary policy, but not fiscal policy, which is handled by the government. The quick answer is that it would take too long to pass a tax increase in congress compared to the fed adjusting the base rate. But yes, raising taxes would reduce the money supply and slow economic activity with fewer detrimental effects on mortgage borrowers, on the backs of working people.
They absolutely should raise taxes on stuff like international foreigners using multiple LLCs to buy real estate; common sense items...
But raising intrabank rates is a form of taxes, or even when the government bids up bonds and treasuries to reduce interest rates; not to mention yield curve control- all these things raise prices on bonds forcing investors to pay more. Taxes aren't just what we pay to the IRS, and taxes are the oldest known artifacts of history.
You answered your own question- they don't discuss it because it wont happen. Nobody is going to give the (unelected) fed the power to change tax-rates. Not to mention that raising taxes during times of high inflation, while it makes economic sense, would be absurdly unpopular.
Why do you say it is a tried and true method of reducing inflation? What examples do you have of a Government raising taxes to reduce inflation? I've never heard of it even though I think it would probably have that effect -- I don't think elected officials would give that power to the Fed since taxes are about balancing spending with bringing in money, and that really doesn't have anything to do with the Fed.
@@Djamonja "taxes are about balancing spending with bringing in money, and that really doesn't have anything to do with the Fed." If you look at the US - it doesn't really have anything to do with elected officials either - US debt levels have been rising for generations - but the real issue is that by the time those elected clowns could agree on anything the situation would have passed. Central banks in any democratic country are the only institutions that can respond in a timely fashion to this kind of problem - and they use the levers that they have.
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You invest with Paula too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
Mrs Paula changed my life because of her high profits i got from investing with her.
Have heard so much about her but have no idea on how to reach her, i'm new at this.
I was skeptical at first until i decided to try. Its huge returns are awesome, can't say much
Well, you wouldn't be asking if a recession is coming if you work in tech!
agreed I'm a SWE we are in the recession
I work in tech and actually got a small raise this year. Below inflation but still not bad
If an organization has an economist,they have an employee too many . Buffet is right..
So far, the WSJ has got it wrong about a recession for nearly 3 straight years. That's terrible.
At this point it's just a rag
When I wake up in the morning, and the sunlight hits my eyes, just one look at you and I know it's going to be, a lovely day.......!
just wait.
4:10 The debt graph defeats the premise of this video, claiming at the beginning that people can still afford stuff while in reality it shows that people spend the same, without being able to afford it and going into debt.
The definition of recession was was changed. So many quarters of negative growth
😂 Go look at the data. There’s been 4 straight quarters of 2% growth or more. Why are you salty that we’re not in a recession? Why do you want to be in a recession? That’s kind of messed up, if you wanna feel little poorer just go move to Western Europe
@@tylerclayton6081Because we ARE in a recession. Unless you're a Ukrainian bureaucrat, then you're swimming in assets.
"This time it's different." She said it Bears. Stay strong boys.
Jerome Powell fights inflation without knowing the root cause of this inflation., extremely incompetent.
Honestly surprised the return of student loan payments wasn't mentioned in this video as an unknown factor coming up soon.
I absolutely agree. That coupled with interest rates going up directly impacts the ability for people to spend.
European here. Tell me more, what's coming up there?
@@danielmethner6847 Student loan payments (for federal student loans) were paused for millions of borrowers during the pandemic as a form of financial relief. That pause has lasted for about 3 years, so people have grown accustomed to having that extra income to rely on, and it's built into their habits and lifestyle now. In September, those federal student loan payments will start back up for everyone and will be yet another sizeable bill that's due each month for many. It is unknown what impact that resumption will have on consumer spending (which our economy relies on) and those borrowers' financial positions.
No worries, everything with me
Things are about to get real bad.
Just because they haven't admitted doesn't mean it isn't happening..
I’m seeking to invest a good amount across various markets but don't know which is safe at this point of uncertainty, I was advised to diversify between stocks and bonds, since they can help hedge against inflation, or am I better off holding cash?
Rather than just speculating, you should work with a CFP to help you diversify your assets by adding ETFs, index funds, mutual funds, and stocks of firms with reliable cash flows.
Well said,< I once assumed I had a hang of the mkt, accrued $80k in a quarter, was super elated, not until the pandemic crash where I was forced to seek expertise assistance due to losses, stumbled upon a financial advisor thankfully, and as of today, I've netted nearly $1m roi after a couple 100s of thousands invested... it's really exciting to share>
that's remarkable! i'm quite intrigued and would appreciate if you share additional details about your experience, or preferably the financial planner assisting you please? cant afford to make any more mistakes
There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But i work with NICOLE DESIREE SIMON and I have been working together for nearly four years, and she is excellent. You could proceed with her if she satisfies your discretion. I endorse her
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
No Problem! All Cool.
Were in it
I got another question insane now think about the expansion of these small particles that they're learning through how many they've done participated death through
They say what they want you to hear
Government deficit spending, shadow liquidity, behind the scene fed back stops.
what a great explanation.
The stimulus checks were 2 yrs ago. With inflation, those dollars are long gone.
Several of the biggest market experts have been voicing their opinions on exactly how awful they think the next downturn would be, and how far equities may have to go, as recession draws closer and inflation continues well above the Fed's 2% objective. I'm trying to build a portfolio of at least $850k by the time I'm 60, therefore I need suggestions on what investments to make.
Since 2008, equity markets are a pretty good reflection of the money supply. The supply is going down, so will markets. When, of course, is a great question because that can still take a year or 2.
If your company offers annuities then this is a good time to buy some annuities.
Iron is hot!
You may want to do this…
If you have $100K, use 1/3 of it to short the market in October and add another 1/3 if it goes higher. Continue to add the rest of it if it goes higher in the next 12 months.
What goes up must come down, especially the Fed continues to hike rates or maintains the current rate longer.
This is an opportunity for those who have losses in their portfolio and want to prevent further losses and those who want to take out an insurance policy to protect when the market crashes.
This is so interesting to me. Yes, many households needed the money for bills and day to day expenses, however, more people (I believe) didn't need the extra help. I worked, so did my husband, we got a check. Why? I presume to put back into the economy. I invested that money. Here's something else that's interesting, households receiving food stamps, received the max amount of food stamps for their household size regardless of income, including the elderly whom, most were not impacted financially by the pandemic. Medicaid was available and most whom applied, qualified due to little/no income. When a household started working and their income should have put their household over the income limit for Medicaid, Medicaid never closed unless requested. Households bring in $60, $70 and even $150,000.00 continued receiving MA. In PA, the pandemic emergency was officially lifted in Spring 2023. Countless households receiving max UC benefits. A lot of these benefits were going to kids 16, 17 and 18 years old living at home w/their parents. I believe almost $800 billion in UC paid. States now owe the government billions because they had to borrow in order to payout. The dollar has weakened and continues to do so. No longer backed by anything, not even oil. BRICS declaring oil no longer to be bought using Petrodollar. Slowly, the U.S. Dollar will no longer be The World's Reserve Currency. There's something bigger happening here. And it feels like it's by design. And trust me, I'm the furthest person from "conspiracy theories" but here we are. It's a bit scary and fascinating all at the same time.
If we're not in a recession then what are we in?
A depression
It was redefined
The factors keeping a recession off is the hard work of Americans, hard work of farmers, hard work of construction workers, and truck drivers
KMPG got the predictive economics completely incorrect, because the assumption are based on demand constraints and elastic supply..padamiec inverted the demand and supply elasticity😂
Thanks for perfect explanation
Min 1:45 " effects of the Stimulus and Infrastructure spending.."
•• with 3% inflation and great job numbers, the GOP needs to get actual policies, and not culture issues to run on.
I only assume that we was never going to go further into a recession. I only believe that everything was just going to flatten itself out just now numbers are higher on both sides.
Error: the video says 90%+ of home owners have a low rate mortgage. This is wrong. You are referring to the share of mortgage loans, not home owners. It would be nice to make the disclaimer so as not to impair WSJ’s credibility
Okay, then; the people who own their house outright would not be counted.
They mentioned 90% below 6%
You heard it wrong
Do you have the source to prove this? The video itself is self-consistent, from what is said. czcams.com/video/3JznzUXd_8c/video.html
@@alanbrown342 No my comment was to the original poster. Your comment is good. Just youtube comments being out of order.
So...there you go, you answered your own question!
The BTFP amount keeps creeping up, so it appears banks have been given a "stay of execution" for one year
It got masked by inflation and advertising of numbers, while value tanked
Oh that recession is coming faster than most expect
👏👏 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸👍👍
Our economy was decelerate not in recession 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Oh please.... Waiting on the landing.
WSJ: nooo, we can't help end democracy without inflation....
Stop the war!!!!
Part of where the recession went is all the deficit spending being conducted.
Looking back on the last few years. It seems that covid time was the recession. Prices went up, people weren't working as much and were getting free money. Therefore, prices were high relative to people's income. Is that not a recession?
Corporate profits rose in July, yet they reduced their retirement match while saying it's been a tough year.
My friend runs a bar. His sales are down 50%. Nobody buys costly drinks anymore. They limit their spending. Trust me, a bad one is coming 😢
Most people shouldn't have been buying costly drinks in the first place because of the amount of debt and small to no retirement savings with the average US citizen. But what do I know as my friends make fun of me for using coupons and always being frugal
Too late for that
where? everywhere like air. that is why you can't see it
Once the bond yield curve un-inverts, count on a recession 6 to 12 months after. This the calm before the financial storm that is coming. The cracks are already showing.
reccession is not on the charts, its in your fridge and your gas tank.
I think it will start with subprime autos and auto industry as a whole tanking, when used car prices drop
I think, that the real problem are the housing prices. It just keeps going up, wages go up too, but not as fast as to compensate for the growing prices in the housing market... The state should fund the construction of apartment complexes and ease zoning regulations to cool down the high prices, but that would be "socialsm!", so its not gonna happen...
2:00 Its almost as if state spending is great for the economy (in addition to the hopefully-worthwhile infrastructure and social programs it funds). But don't tell an economist ...
Something is going to explode