The Economic Crisis That Threatens the Chinese Model - VisualPolitik EN
Vložit
- čas přidán 5. 09. 2022
- 🔍 Have you checked out our new channel, @visualeconomiken? Here's our latest video on how Putin manipulates the Russian elections: • How PUTIN MANIPULATES ...
Join the VisualPolitik community and support us on Patreon: / visualpolitik
China's economic and financial situation has deteriorated over the past few years and now threatens to plunge the country into a major crisis. In the coming months, Xi Jinping's government will have to deal with record debt levels, low productivity, a bursting real estate market and a possible financial crisis. But to what extent is the Chinese model under threat? In this video we tell you all the details.
🔍 Have you checked out our new channel, VisualEconomik? Here's our latest video on how Putin manipulates the Russian elections: czcams.com/video/WhyQ5cfK7d8/video.html
First the elections video on the economic channel and an economic collapse video on the politics channel. I guess y'all are still getting use having separate subject channels still.
czcams.com/video/dKZYJ1tTJX8/video.html
See the November 2015 National Geographic magazine for crop yield decreases due to Climate Change. FREE movie on CZcams "National Geographic Collapse" about the future (Peak Oil). The oil companies knew about Climate Change long before the general public, people aware of this crises are in a desperate struggle for money because of what the public doesn't yet know...Peak Oil is coming; How to survive the worldwide starvation crisis caused by Peak Oil; "What can I do"? According to the experts you should: 1A. Garden with sustainable agriculture techniques (less pesticides, herbicides and fertilizer (organic & permaculture)). B. Learn to preserve, and learn the spoil dates of different storage conditions, learn how to check for spoilage (give a little to one healthy person (not the elderly or a child) if they don't get sick...give more to another...if they don't get sick...you should be ok. 2. Buy food and manufactured goods made locally 3. Pay down debt 4. Learn skills that will be useful in the future and make friends that have useful skills you don't have (related to providing food, water, shelter, and medical care: A necessary skill is organic/permaculture gardening/farming). Very important: medicinal plant and medical skills are the best way to ensure your survival. All others will gladly sacrifice their life to protect your life, so you are around to use your medical knowledge to keep their families alive. 5. I recommend, if you can...to invest some money into technologies to increase the "carrying capacity" of the planet (high risk investments); A. decrease negative environmental impact, B. alternatives for our food system input to improve production, C. alternatives to our current living arrangements, D. alternatives to our plastics industry, E. alternatives to disaster capitalism/socialism/communism F. "Savior Technologies" (ie faster-than-light travel), "Game Changer" technologies (ie Cold Fusion Energy) & "Delaying Technologies" (ie deep sea drilling technologies). 6. I also recommend you inform and prepare your family, friends, and others. It is best to initially suggest people have an emergency kit... for any emergency such as flood, earthquake, tornado, hurricane, loss of electricity due to a winter storm. Then, if the friend or relative puts together a disaster kit, tell them about #7A/B/C 7A. THE community based organization to mitigate Climate Change and Peak Oil is: www.transitionus.org/ (For non USA; transitionnetwork.org/) 7B. The FREE movie "National Geographic Collapse" on CZcams. 7C. Google "2052 free book download summary" www.2052.info - "A Global Forecast for the Next 40 Years". This website is a supplement to the book '2052-A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years', written by Jørgen Randers. 7D. "Plan C: Community Survival Strategies for Peak Oil and Climate Change" Pat Murphy 7E. www.goodreads.com Three of my Facebook pages were removed, "History Channel's Prophets of Doom Mike Ruppert" and my 2 pages on the "National Geographic Collapse movie" were removed. Never give up, your families lives are at stake! I anticipate worldwide deaths at 7 out of 8 (worldwide population of 8 billion people becoming 1 billion). The US is the number one military power, number 2 economy, and a net exporter of food. Thus, I anticipate 1 out 2 will die in the US. So you just need to be above average, easy to do if you know and accept Peak Oil. In the US I estimate all those that survive the collapse will endure severe psychological and/or physical trauma. If SHTF; the Appalachian and Rocky Mountains will probably have mountain passes and bridges closed. An expert in the field of Peak Oil (Liam Nelson) felt people would willingly go into FEMA camps vs. not having any food or water. I believe it is best to consider living between the Rocky and Appalachian Mountains well away from the southern coast and especially away from where Central and South Americans will travel into the US (roads will be made obstacles and the desert is a natural obstacle). Thus, consider the northern Midwest US whith access to water (and the locals will accept you). Avoid being near nuclear reactors since the government may not shut them down. Note; many rich in the US are stockpiling resources in New Zealand to flee there (verify with Google, using credible newspaper articles). Think of a return to the Middle Ages (but with trains) or the old Western US without horses. The leaders of Bug Out Locations will deter unrest by keeping some form of the US Constitution, at the minimum the Bill of Rights. Without a Bill of Rights, history will repeat- We will have a repeat of "Game of Thrones" where the leaders constantly face assassination and betrayal. Try Facebook pages; 1. Peak Oil 2. Increasing the Carrying Capacity of the Earth 3. Organized Effort to Maximize Peak Population - OE-MP 4. Platue/Peak Population 5. Peak Oil Loners United
Another China China China video 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂🌚🌚🌚🌚🌚🌚🌚🌚
*NIGGA NIGGA NIGGA NIGGA NIGGA*
🌚🌚🌚🌚🌚🌚🌚🌚🌚🌚🌚
One talking point that I've heard about China's current situation (both economically and social) is that the government is continuing to impose heavy/restrictive covid measures as a means of subduing any social unrest going on in the country as a result of the economic situation (or more specifically, the public reaction to the housing situation). A side effect of continuing to limit certain areas of the country is that public spending will further decrease and not help with boosting the economy. This in turn would also play into a talking point in the video about how Xi is more worried about political unrest than the economy itself.
Do not misjudge the Chinese government into thinking that they impose lockdowns just because they want to. They know what they are doing and why they are doing it.
They have probably calculated all the risks involved of what if they were to open up the borders or not, to live with the virus or not. They knew if once they opened up their borders and to live with the virus, tens of thousands may die. They probably realise that their vaccines are not that effective as they hope they could be. And their hospitals and medical facilities may not be able to cope with any sudden surges of new cases. So the only sensible measure that they could take to prevent against any chaos from erupting is to impose lockdowns to minimise the risks of widespread casualties.
Do not underestimate the Chinese government, they know what they are doing, they understand their own strengths and weaknesses.
Just a western narrative, most of the population here likes Xi unfortunately and he's changed the law to where he can be dictator for life. I'd be surprised if he is removed as chairman.
Yes, this is being carried out in Hong Kong as well.
@@Zerion Yeah. One country two systems was a lie just like everything the CCP says.
Option 2 is reeducation camps.
look when you take into account the nationwide drought in china and how they've been restricting water and electricity to factories... it's the perfect storm.
Lol.
And than in October it rains and there is no more drought...
This huge drought just showed how good Chinese infrastructure has became.
An historical drought and people still have water at home, the electricity is still on and ships keep sailing in the rivers.
Just a couple years ago any minor drought would mean starvation in the following year...
China also has a cataclysmic environmental and water crisis going on that wasn't even mentioned here. It's truly devastating the various droughts that hit China. In the north water per Capita is in such extreme scarcity it's about as bad as living in the Sahara. Meanwhile lots of the water is totally polluted and unusable.
And the demographic time bomb ... population halved by 2100
@@conorwhite2066 2050s i recently learnd form peter zeihan
That happens when your overpopulated with 1.4 billion people. More people use more.
The USA and China have the same landmass and China has more cars than the USA has people.
Thats is not good in the long game.
@@Crashed131963 they also have polluted about 70% of their water ( whatever is left)
And a massive demographic issue. One child policy is going to end in catastrophe.
Being French I perfectly understand the appeal of real estate as an investment for regular people. Here it's very common. However buying several properties on top of your home means becoming a landlord, and thus you look at the city you're investing in, if there are jobs there, population growth, etc. It happens that some of these investments are bad ones in France, if you don't do this due diligence. It seems in China they buy anything, built anywhere, even in the middle of a desert, and there is no plan to actually rent the property. Nobody seems aware that their population is shrinking and thus there is actually no need for all these flats, meaning they're absolutely worthless and an environmental burden. It's absolutely insane.
A Classic BUBBLE.
I do agree with you
What you have to understand: 1. There's is literally no (good) way to invest your money in China other than property. 2. Competition for partners is FIERCE, owning property is REQUIRED.
The Chinese people never experienced the market going down as the only market is their real estate market. It gonna be a huge wake up call.
If you are Chinese living in China for good, would you have kids ? I just don’t see a logical sense in having kids when the future is so uncertain for both parents and kids
The real issue is, with rampant corruption, public expending poorly translate into public service and welfare. Civil rights and public service are not well known concepts in China.
The corruption now is roughly the same as 5-10 years ago, so it's the smallest factor in the current state of affairs.
@@gebys4559 I agree with on the “corruption level” thing, if you can quantify it. But, with more government spending, more money going to waste on project that doesn’t bring much valve for civilians.
If corruption is so rampant there is no way China could have achieved so much development. Transparency International ranked China and India at aprox same level of corruption. Consequently Indian government and politicians think that India can afford to be corrupt without compromising its development because they think China as an example. Of course China is last to care about bogus Transparency International reports
Well...west introduced those to Afghanistan, Syria, Libya etc. They know how democracy, human rights & freedom failed them
Corrupt? What you think the U.S has civil rights? You think the U.S gets such great welfare? Stop with the parroting of U.S lies you puppet.
Theres a dead pan joke that "the GDP of China has managed to maintain growth this quarter.. thanks to the effort by the Statistics Bureau"
In russia too.
Hope this lets the country of Taiwan stay safe
It actually brings more danger to Taiwan
As long as the US doesn't meddle in Taiwan, it will be safe
Well without the deterrence of the US
It would be much easier for China to atk
China is desperate we all know what desperate people do
Thanks for avoiding the hyperbole of other videos on this subject. China's economic situation is grim, but all of these videos titled "China will collapse in 30 days" are getting tiresome. No one can be 100% sure when a bubble will pop. It'll be ugly, but how quickly it unfolds, and exactly what form it takes in China is something we cannot predict with great certainty. Comparisons to crises in western countries can only go so far, since there are numerous factors unique to the Chinese situation, from capital flight controls, to direct control of banks, to tighter control of public narratives.. the list goes on. So, in many ways, we still have to wait and see. The story will continue to unfold for some time before a clear picture emerges.
This video is dumb af. Middle school level
They also keep forgetting how most of China's current economic problems are self inflicted wounds...
It was the government crackdown on big tech companies, excessive bank loans and rising housing prices, Xi himself had stated that "houses are for living not specualtions"
They are basically letting off some hot air before it grows into full blown bubble, suffer in the short term to prevent a much bigger problems in the future.
american bubble will collapse soon
China doesn't have a market based system for balancing debt vs productivity. Their bureaucrats don't have a clue what to do.
It's remarkable how China's CCP has been reversing course and issuing opposite edicts in recent years compared to what existed ony 5-10 years before...
The China "one child" policy.
Import/export policies.
Encouraging the people to invest.
Encouraging the people to be productive in tech firms, particularly Chinsese controlled Internet firms.
Over the last 3 years, China has been dictating new rules that make RE development and investment less attractive, and the result has been a declining market which would not be any surprise to any economist.
Depending on the source, China is either already suffering demographic implosion or will soon.
New rules, taxes and edicts to tech firms to "donate" their profits are hobbling Chinese tech firms, throwing their futures into doubt.
Anyone who gives the appearance of capitalistic success by being famous, popular or wealthy is being "disappeared" by the CCP as a potential adversary in domestic power and control.
Policy is made to suit prevailing economic and geo-political circumstances. All countries change policy the economic circumstances were different 5-10 years ago.
China will be fine, it’s not built like the west. It’s not like the Chinese government doesn’t have money to blow it’s not like they don’t more sway over their population than western governments do over their citizens lol. It’s not like China isn’t crushing Europe and America in Africa. I have first hand experience in minerals industry in Africa what the Chinese are doing here is NUTS!( basically imperialistic economic policy). They are out competing TF out of European mineral procurement companies.
This year Xi-Jinping will be scrutinised by the Chinese communist party in a process that only takes place twice a decade. There is obviously a political struggle occurring within the CCP. In America you can change the party but you cannot necessarily change the constitution, in China you can’t change the party but you can change the policy.
for crying out loud the CCP has lifted almost 1/4 of the worlds population out of poverty in less than half a century🤣 you have to look at this from Historically perspective China has more or less always had the largest economy and population for 3000 years… even the discovery of the Americans was for the purpose of finding trade routes to China( largest market in the world blessed with it all). Everyone has a fetish over China… the Chinese regarded everyone as barbarians( historically) , I mean you would if ur civilisation has been around for long. Like when the British, spainsh and Portuguese during the 1700s first arrived and offered the xing dynasty modern technology they laughed and only wanted sliver in return. Then we took india which meant we no longer had to buy stuff via China, then we flooded China we drugs. Yes where do you think Americans money came from where do you think the Roosevelt’s got their money from OPIOID ??!! Access to the largest market on the planet and that is the Han ethnic group( CHINA ). they don’t care about the west when the first British diplomatic envoy arrived in China in the 1790s the Chinese turned them away.. but that’s not even what’s interesting they responded in LATIN a language that was basically dead by 700AD. The simply just want the world to know they are back
@@michaelotieno6524 the point probably was that the timeframe was probably too short and indicates instability or something
What are your thoughts on the emerging crisis in China (mortgage payment strikes and systemic risk from fractional-reserve banking) and it's likely impact on emerging markets?
there are so many factors in play right now. the global market is so interlinked and the world has been decoupling from China. This creates massive economic stress and a scenario no model or econometric analysis would have predicted. The fact is , with all this bad news I wouldn't let any affect the way I invest at all, otherwise you'd probably never invest a single penny - but that being said, it's a reminder to be well diversified!
@Stanley Edwin I’ll take investments in stock any day they’re very remunerative only problem I’m having is I really don’t know how to go about it, I do get lost and overwhelmed by the markets. Any solid pointers in reaching the skillset you employed would be helpful, I’d appreciate if I got a reply.
I spent 9 months touring about China in places like Guizhou--the PRC has always been in 'economic crisis'.
Frankly, it is very much a developing nation and while I'm sure it's possible livelihoods might be changed somewhat in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities, the life of 90% of people is largely going to be the same.
Taxes guarantee it. Farmers are literally the only people who pay income taxation. Through tithing roughly a third or more of their produce to SOEs that exploit them. Everybody in a white collar or mercantile job just practice tax evasion. So you have a case of a country wit zero welfare spending, near zero social security and education spending (relative to population), and which actively tries to impede peasants doing anything more than being peasants--The PRC has always been in 'economic crisis' for 90% of her people.
What's an 'economic crisis' for the meagre handful legitimately going to change in this calculus?
You're talking about a country with one of the largest wealth Gini coefficients--With mass exploitation foreign and domestic.
It's about as poor as you can get with its gross productivity already. It's basically Tsarist Russia out there. Who cares if 1% of the population have to spread less gold on their bread?
People ca point at Shanghai and Shenzhen and be like 'nuh uh', but they seem to forget that Moscow and St. Petersburg were considered some of the most beautiful cities on Earth. I'll take an ounce of good will between people over a pound of tacky neon lighting and vanity projects. The PRC taught me this.
Thank you for this
I get this unnerving uncanny valley feeling from your videos when the narrator is on the screen, because it's always slightly sped up.
3 points not covered in the video
1. China needs to import energy and food and a depreciated currency will make that harder and harder to do
2. China has no friends, unless you want to count Iran and Russia. This is important because as public opinion of China worsens, there will be more incentive for companies to leave China
3. China is no longer the low cost producer. That, along with supply chain issues can hurt China. Why not move your production to Mexico? Labor is still low cost and there are no supply chain issues when it comes to exporting to the US
Your third point especially is way more complicated than you make it seem. Why not move your production to Mexico? Because the infrastructure simply isn't there to build something slightly similar in any country so far. China as a country is build to build and support all logistics and infrastructure needed. Them no longer being a low cost producer rather is a mid to long term topic. This is the natural development of every producing country eventually. Europe went through it and so did the US. It's the road from a producing low cost country to a consumer country. Think it was called a industrial revolution. Also Africa will help a lot with this topic.
@@John_Doe448 Well, it would make sense to move production away from China as it is becoming more and more belligerent and has an aging population. Even if labor is cheaper in China, the cost and unreliability of the supply chain make up for it, at least as far as the US is concerned
@@John_Doe448 Your information is outdated. Mexico has rapidly industrialized and the infrastructure is growing at a very rapid pace. Immigrations from Mexico to the USA has severely dropped because Mexico has industrialized and jobs and opportunity are now plentiful, it has been this way for the past decade. There's a reason why alot of US manufacturing is being located to Texas, right near the Mexican border.
@@John_Doe448 yeah China is a middle producer and I think there is a good chance it is about to hit the middle income trap
@@John_Doe448 are you familiar with the concept of the middle income trap,
China too is currently facing enormous economic hardships and this will definitely slow down it's overall economic growth rate for the next few years.
The Chinese waitress presenting this video would agree
Even if chinaa grows at 5% yearly it's still the fastest growing economy 5% of 20trillion$ is alot
You deliver excellent content to your audience. It's very interesting material. All of your effort put into creating this video is much appreciated. I'm truly grateful for your help!
The problem is that the local government enmities cannot run without selling new land for development. This goes to the developers and the rest of the real estate sector, basically a Ponzi Scheme. These people are paying for properties that may never exist. The whole system will crash once the population realizes this and the confidence plummets.
The additional problem is that a lot of the "developed" properties that do exist are falling apart. There are dozens of ghost cities and a lot of empty developments that have been bought up as "investments" but will at some point no longer be of any value. Sure, they can pretend that those buildings can still be occupied, but what happens when people start visiting their properties and see the true state of what they have purchased? I'm sure the game of musical chairs will suddenly stop and havoc will ensue.
also real estate isnt actually sold. whats traded is only lease to land still officially owned by CCP which has been temperamental on many policies. hardly trustworthy investment
What’s their way out of this? They will have to find a new tax revenue generator but that will end up slowing economic growth so best case is they don’t collapse but just see very normal growth going forward like 2-3% gdp growth rather than 5% originally forecast for 2022-2030.
@@Homer-OJ-Simpson Maybe a sales tax but I would think that selling a 'luxury' tax to the people would be easier. Taxing the rich is an easy sell. Maybe "sin" taxes like cigarettes, liquor, and yachts.
@@jayl878 that probably won’t be enough but I suspect that’s what it will start with. Higher Taxes on higher end goods and higher taxes on the wealthy and middle class. But ultimately they will need a higher sales taxes across the board
Once you see Ping compared to Winnie the Pooh you can’t unsee it.
Tbh they are lucky they got off so easy with covid after blaming the US 👀
Maybe, but I've heard their vaccines are pretty much worthless and they haven't built anything in the way of natural immunities since they didn't allow the virus to transmit through the population. The Zero Covid policy that drives shutdowns of millions when even a single case is detected impacts the economy as well. It's not hard to imagine a strain of the virus getting loose at some point and then...
Different pandemics originated from different countries. Never has there been any repercussions.
@@John_Doe448 name the last one that shut down the whole world for two years?
@@John_Doe448 That's not what they're talking about. They're talking about how the CCP kept quiet and did not tell anybody about what was happening because they only cared about their reputation. Then when they did inform the WHO, they lied and said things like "it doesn't spread between humans" knowing very well it did. When word began to spread in other parts of Asia that a new virus had emerged in China, precautions were implemented straight away knowing well China has a reputation being quiet because it's exactly what they did almost 20 years prior to that in the early 2000s when SARS emerged. That's why international students in China went back to their countries in late 2019 after authorities informed families of an uncertain development in Wuhan and why you could see people began wearing masks across Asia from Thailand to Sri Lanka to Japan as soon as 2020 began, long before the virus started spreading rapidly internationally from March 2020 onwards.
@@John_Doe448 The CCP is to blame but the US government is to blame as well. Why? It's because a Chinese dissident, Wei Jingsheng, had travelled to the US in late 2019 intending to speak to the US president (Trump) or someone close to him in order to inform them of a new virus spreading in China. This information fell on deaf ears at the US government and Dr Fauci, in the early days, downplayed a lot of the things that were happening because he and the NIH had been funding risky virus research in Wuhan.
Great video, thanks
Very interesting topic!
Despite the economic crisis 😔
Despite the Economic recession ,I'm so happy☺️. I have been earning $ 60,000 returns from my $6,000 on short term
This must be an investment with Mrs Margaret
Wow, I'm just shocked you mentioned Expert Margaret thought am the only one trading with her
Of course, she helped me recovered what I lost trying to trade for myself
Mrs Margaret is the right person to start crypto currency with, she knows her ways around the crypto world,she has been helping me increase my Investment every day for over 6 months.
Financial crisis - debt recovery
Real estate - unemployment
Predetermined GDP
Demographic - working-age shrinks
It's there a shortage of women?
@@gingernutpreacher Porportionate to men, yes. For every 100 women there are 105.302 men. There are about 40 million men than women in China.
Thanks!
Higher costs and disruptions in China are putting other Asian nations in play for foreign investors!
Fiscal stimulus increases burden of debt recovery
China: "We have a land selling problem"?
Colonialism: "Can I help"?
But China itself was a colonizer. Didn't China colonize Korea? For 5,000 years of history. Invasions after invasions after invasions.
luv ur videos
China is heading towards a major turning point. The people are trusting the govt less and less and the systems they call for less and less. It’s only a matter of time before a breakdown on either side begins
That’s true but also not…. It’s true that this year has rose some dissatisfaction but the approval ratings is still quite high. Let’s say if this continue for the next few years and there is no change then yeah there might be a problem but generally the ratings are still high
@@ellenation2294 so what makes the ratings reliable? When 99% of data that comes from the ccp is modified in their favor?
Yeah some random white guy knows more about china than Chinese 🤣🤣
@@wolverine9377 Well considering censorship, I wouldn’t be surprised if we actually did know about the problems more than the locals.
@@antsalberta7526
Seems like you haven't played in asian server 😉😉
You think they are fool or something 🤣🤣
I hope this is how the CCCP ends
I have to say that you always do a great job. I want to start a CZcams channel soon
Hi brother looking for your new video new subscriber
Thanks
Question: what is the production energy vs workers number in Chinese industry?
I want to understand if their productivity levels are sustainable. If they are not energy efficient, less workers means less production and with China's irreversible population decrease, it is an economical death spiral. Is there any truth in that?
you need to look up into China's population and education demographics.
Collapse 0f chin@ ? We have been hearing this Bullsh!t since decades
@@Superpooper-2020 Collapse of China is like a carrier asked to turn 180. it will, but it will take time and good long miles.
@@BBBrasil but before that American empire will C0llapse 👀
@@BBBrasil Chinese are 0ne of the three oldest civilizati0n every time they collapse they c0me back stronger than bef0re. Not sure ab0ut muricaa th0ugh since it's the y0ungest empire
It seems like visual-economics has swapped videos with visual-politics; this video should be on visual-economics and the video about how putin manipulate elections should be here
Time to book mark this video and to comment on it in exact one year
Polymatter has made some great videos on these points
Could the economy collapse? Yes. Is the government going to collapse? No.
End of discussion…..
Yup, 100% agree!
It’s certainly a possibility
Sadly, this.
@@kazeryu4834 no, it isn't. The CCP has far too much power, and the people are subjugated to an extreme level. Even with the current protests and riots, nothing will shake the CCP, because they have the PLA at their disposal, the largest standing army the world has ever seen. It doesn't matter if their training is half baked, or if their equipment is outdated. Manpower is manpower, and that is enough to snuff out any dissidents.
When you get to this level of authoritarianism, the only thing that can break the government is an external cataclysm.
Great video, can you talk a bit about the euro economy next?
For the next video,I'm pretty sure you will talk about the new prime minister;)) of Great Britain and the state of UK economy and so on.Nice job as always,guys!
Very good video
Huge, useless infrastructure projects are not new at all in China. I remember a trip out into the sparsely inhabited fringes of the Gobi desert. Huge six lane concrete highways that let neither mountains nor valleys stand in the way of their arrow progress. Roman roads on steroids. No traffic. And that was 13 years ago.
Well, you are not wrong, but not correct either. Some of those huge infrastructures might seem useless at the moment they were built, but it is a way to plan in advance. When economy grows, once useless infrastructure becomes useful. And this is a way of investment.
@@xingchenfan7923 Just wondering. Have you been there?
@@davidford694 I can I have, I was in Shenzhen when they have empty 12 lane road with no cars. Now of course they are full. Have you seen that?
@@davidford694 I'm from China. And I see those infrastructures all the time... There is not always a payback. Some of them work like miracles, as if the builders foresaw the growth of that area. Some, on the other hand, become debt burdens of the local governments. That is why I said it is more like an investment. And there are risks in it...
@@xingchenfan7923 Unfortunately you won't be able to say the same about the ghost cities or 6 lane highway/bullet trains that goes no where.
I don't believe they'll have much trouble with exports as they will use force to ensure the bottom line in foreign currency is met but their internal economy is certainly going to experience and earthquake.
I don’t think I understand? Are you saying the ccp will threaten to invade other countries to keep exports up?
@@kazeryu4834 no, I'm saying they'll use any means necessary on their local businesses to keep them producing the product needed to meet export demands; weather that be forced labor, media campaigns persuading people to work those jobs and everything in between
@@nerdlingeeksly5192 well I certainly agree that will happen, it doesn’t seem to be working for the moment at least. The lack of electricity and zero Covid will test how effective the strategy is I guess
You should have uploaded this video on visualeconomic channel
Wow. Quite a reveal. Eager to view upcoming videos. Thanks. Tom.
Michael Pettis (Peking Uni) consistently comments that China's 'model' is not unique. Amongst others it was preceded by the USA and Japan. Both countries assumed huge debt to finance growth but both had to handle the transition to a normal or low growth economy. The USA switched in the late 1920s with what is now called the great depression. Japan transitioned with less of an economic bust but it was still tough for the Japanese and, to some extent, still is. It seems clear China will have to switch but its not clear that it can do so without the equivalent of the great depression.
USA was still a Country with a growing population 1920. China is shrinking.
@@neodym5809 Michael Pettis has stated that Chinese demographics and population decline isn't the issue. Fixing the housing and growth model crisis allows china to switch to a more innovative and productivity driven growth.
@@J_X999 Pettis may state what he wants, history still proves him wrong.
Hang on..... didn't you already do a video on how the Chinese economy wasn't in particular danger of serious decline, just the other week?
Situations change and videos are on que?
@@FukUrToS in a week?
Remember VisualPolitik did more than 30 videos on China within the last two years alone. What do you expect mate?
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@dywang32 remember when we all doing Christmas shopping then the next week we could leave our homes?
Yes things change that much in one week. Especially when you record the video a month ahead of time
Excellent...let it implode.
I really like the discussion of key economic metrics. They are topline numbers that are hard to argue against in the assessment of the economic well-being of a country. I would love if you touched on the not so easy to factor in phenomena of China. The two most important in my mind are technological advancements and the belt and road initiative. What is the project economic value of being #1 in AI, 5G, and facial recognition technology? Secondly, what is the economic potential of the worldwide supply chain and political investments which are carried out through the belt and road initiative? While China may be in a recession now, the majority of the world is also suffering from conditions that some are describing as a recession. Understanding the distinct nature of China's opportunity on the way out, I think would make a very interesting follow-up video. Thanks for the vid!
Considering the state of Sri Lanka, I doubt the belt and road initiative has much of a future
@@neodym5809 Yep. The jig is up on that one. All the potential targets are beginning to realize all the talk of "working together" has really just been a pleasant sounding lampshade for the same wealth-extracting neo-colonialism that western megacorps engage in. When even the most profligate spenders are starting to hesitate on taking your loans, that's probably a good indication that you've overplayed your hand.
lol there are no friends in politics only interests
I've seen this formula since the 90s already. Its always China's blablabla will collaps, China's impending doom, China will never achieve etc etc. I''ve been hearing this for 20 years already. Meanwhile, i have never a video on this channel about something positively interesting about this big red giant in the east. If we are including a demographic decline as a possible trigger to a ''collapse'', then its important to mention that China’s manufacturing productivity is growing 10 percent annually since 2010 already. Rising productivity and the switch to a more sustainable model (China being the number 1 investor in renewable energy, digitalization and other high tech production) suggests that China is much better poised to transform its economy than these doomlike-scenario-lists imply. Debt alone should not be seen as some sort of binary indicator of impending financial collapse. Countries like Japan (that jiggles a very similar specialized government-owned financial system with massive amounts of debt) provides us insight that a financial collapse of a credit fueled economy is far from an absolute certainty. The Chinese model is far from perfect, but lets not forget that the Chinese government has proven to be one of the most flexible and most adaptive governments out there in modern history. They will manage, and their model will not vanish overnight.
What are you talking about? 20yrs ago _everyone_ was promoting china as a great economic power and a great economy to invest in.
Its only in recent years since Xi Jingping (winnie the pooh) has locked down the country, harassed and destroyed confidence in its own tech companies (locking up Jack Ma and similar), as well as using them for spying and IP theft, that people overseas are starting to take notice. Additionally, it is the vast amount of corruption and "fake production" and "fake real estate" that the Chinese have been doing over the years that has started people questioning China and their motives. Added to this, Chinese manufacturing has _not_ been going up 10% every year (lets make up some numbers eh?). In the last 10 yrs alone, hundreds of very large companies have actually _exited_ China already (due to the reasons I mentioned). Sony, Samsung, Jeep, and so on, oh and dont forget the huge number of companies now going bankrupt in the realestate, steel and manufacturing industries. In fact there were Chinese people protesting trying to stop Samsung from shutting down one of its last TV manufacturing factories recently (earlier this year). And the working class unemployment in the last 5 years has skyrocketed. And lets not forget the 1 trillion (USD) hispeed rail spiralling debt.. as well as the _huge_ (in excess of 10 trillion usd) foreign debt that is growing fast due to inflation rates overseas - China has not just borrowed _alot_ of money, its un-serviceable debt, China is heading for bankruptcy. Its why they are trying to cause international conflict, because they want to make their citizens look at external sources for all their own created issues.
Finally.. sustainable model? Building 9 more coal fire power plants? Rampant pollution? Chemical plants dumping directly into common rivers, 80% of Chinas water is undrinkable, the ground table is 1000ft lower than it used to be in most food producing areas... sustainable? Seriously? 10,000 damns.. all the flora and fauna in China destroyed (or eaten)... how can you call this sustainable?
There are very few countries that have made such a huge disaster of their own country, that the people in it wont drink their own water, or eat their own grown food. China has a myriad of problems that have been built and driven by the CCP, and now these problems are coming home to roost. There is no escaping the incoming ramifications, I just hope the Chinese citizens realize soon enough and do something about it, because as usual, they are the ones who will suffer the worst under this regime.
Shocked CCP still has 50¢ to pay you.
Well since I am a economist (studied economics at least ) I give it a try and look into my Glass-ball into the future.
1. Recession
2. State intervention
3. Stagnation
This will be a issue since China still needs to develop still. Middle income trap … 🤷♂️🤷♂️
Let’s see if I am right
You should make a video on regulations they started implementing from 2020 which is one major reason for current crisis but necessary one too
I lived in China, no regulations are followed.
Hahahaha necessary? The covid policies have more impact than the real estate, it is a series of failures of Xi, and he willingly popped the housing market in the current chinese covid crisis he is a complete idiot. Should have nationalised the companies.
@@mrbonanza2606 really. Like developers not allowed to take out loan until they pay their previous ones which brought crisis to the real estate. This is how evargrande collapsed. In Macau they had new regulations for gambling. They new regulations for hong kong too
@@ShubhamMishrabro Guess that regulation came too late and now that bubble pop is going to HUUUURRRT
@@mrbonanza2606 well that regulations were necessary cause in future it would have been even worse
I have seen many comments and videos, and almost none of them are based on really valuable information, including the argument of this video, which is also a collection of many Internet memes and stereotypes. If you like, you can even produce such videos 24/7.
CCP ..takes your money and freezes your access to said money.
CCP be like.. We can't pay you back but we have a evergrand unfinished home for you.
Yeah. Take it or leave it. By the way, we also determine the barter economic value of your unfinished home 😌
Make a video on the rise of the Indian economy. India surpassed UK to become the 5th largest economy in the world.
India's economy is still just 3 trillion $ while China reached 20 trillion $
@@davidstrelec2000 but India is on the upswing and China the downswing.
@@mrbonanza2606 I agree India's on the way up. But they 1st have to change their chauvinist ways and unchained half their population.
Being the 5th largest economy in the world means absolutely nothing if standards of living of ordinary citizens are far below that. If Indian economy (which has 20 times more population) performs same as UK (which has 20 times less population), it only means each UK citizen is so much better off than each Indian citizen.
@@mrbonanza2606 , even if China's economy on "downswing", no one expects it to suddenly shrink almost 7 times. India still has at least a few decades to catch up to China.
you are not the first and will not be the last to predict china's collapse. i am staying in shenzhen and see that things are not going that bad. it will be interesting to check out how european countries will go thru the winter, the season and economic one (inflation).
Let's the dust down till sweep by the rain
The bloom is off the peony. It may not be total collapse but China's hyper growth strategies are catching up with them. If the Covid years and now the Ukraine situation has set an example, one extreme is often followed by another counter extreme.
Their covid polices saved the lives of roughly 5.6 million people and spared about 56 million people from the horrific long term/permentantly chronic illness and disability that is long covid. That's based on scaling the numbers on the UK (which had an extreme under-reaction to covid that wasted the lives of millions unnecessarily) to China's population size. We know their figures are accurate they have been as verified as anyone else's and the WHO as well as the majority of international health bodies agree to that (as well as praise China's highly effective response.) The extreme response was the wests... slaughter and disable 10s, and soon to be 100s, of millions of our own people so businesses could keep making juicy profits and people could go out partying and not having to wear a mask in the middle of the worst pandemic in a 100 years... Its clear that history will look at the west as having the extreme response, most Asian countries got it largely right and continue to observe sensible precautions without throwing tantrums about them
Easy money policy is at the root of all this economic evil. The mal-investments, the waste, the deteriorating credit quality of Chinese debtors means massive financial loss for the Banking system in China, or massive inflation and a Remembi currency collapse.
The idea that you can finance unproductive investments that cannot generate income to service debt; did the Chinese central planners, not heard of Enron Corporation in the United States of America. That company could not service its 45 Billions USD debt, but the CCP can service 300 Trillions of unproductive debt? Am I missing something?
This is the problem of centrally planned economies. The issue is the government has their hand on the supply side, but if they can't control the demand side (which is determined by the people), then it's just doomed to fail. They might as well force people to spend as well.
@@patrickt49 China doesn't have a centrally planned economy. Again more western lies and rubbish. Reading pages and pages of Americans making it up as they go along. Yankee you are wrong. You have always been wrong and always will be wrong.
Yeah, the "unproductive" debt.
@@tiagogomes3807 Any loan that is used to financed anything, that is unable to produced enough income to service the debt. That is what makes it unproductive or a bad debt. Most debt in society is bad debt. That includes all government debt.
@@juniorleslie4804 not would be non performing debt, not bad debt.
They aren't the same.
You have to count with the externalities...
Even more in a economy like China.
Do a video on Russian oil exports to China and India
I love Robert Greenes books
16:08 "Could this mean that the era of great Chinese growth has come to and end"
If it's true, that would be an INCREDIBLE prediction by the book 'why nations fail'.
Only time will tell.
It's true. Ive lived in China for 14 years and it's never been worse.
@@EpsteinsRope Try India.
@@2KSnSLifestyle I actually love India. I've visited twice. I don't think it's a good place to raise a family though, especially a half Chinese family given that India and China hate each other lol. They also have a high English literacy rate which doesnt go well with me being an English teacher. We are debating on Japan, Singapore or Spain, but Singapore is probably the best option given that we already speak English and Mandarin and wouldn't have to learn another language. It took me 5 years to get comfortably fluent in Mandarin and that sapped my desire to learn anymore languages lol.
@@2KSnSLifestyle haha 😂 we don't spend randomly on any project it's stupidity !
We do all types of study
India is like a turtle 🐢
And china is like a rabbit 🐰
We will see who gonna win
Arrogance of China will let it down...!
Learn to give respect earn respect 👍🏻
Wonder what would break from Han China 🇨🇳 if it collapses probably Manchuria, Tibet, Qinghai, Sinkiang, Hongkong, Macau, East Turkestan to name of few I doubt Shanxi, Anhui, Fujian, and Guangxi provinces will separate from Beijing due to there high Han ethics
Yup and over time they will reunite again just as it has for the past 5000 years.
Manchuria will not secede, because manchuria currently is like the rust belt of america and rellied heavily from the other province to provide what it need. so its very unwise for its to secede, and even if some province do secede, it will be met with an iron fist and quelled very soon. Especially Sinkiang. Also , different from US, or USSR in that matter, China really isnt a federal system, and the uyghur really is the only ethnic that is still resisting the government. In the unlikly event of a ccp collapse. The most likely thing that will happen is a military takeover. Which will soon declare war on any province that dare to secede. With nuclear weapon on the table. No other country will intervene.
@@roadnontaken9085 It was the Manchu who conquered China and wanted to be part of China. So yes Manchuria won't secede as the Manchus are already sinicized just like the rest of China, ASEAN and Africa.
Yes
where did you get that red shirt? I want one.
There is no alternate, the CCP has already made the Chinease GDP to take a huge nosedive and China's economic collapse is inevitable.
I unsubscribed this channel when it had turned hippie-sunshine-rainbow-diversity-representation beyond a level that was reasonably bearable. This video popped up on my screen and I gotta admit, it is well made. No one even convinced me for half of the video that republicans are evil like in the last videos I saw on this channel :D, looks you guys have made some changes. Keep it up
I always found VisualPolitics very neutral. But the ineptitude and immorality of so many current Republicans is so obvious that even the most neutral channels can't but say it like it is
One can only hopes so.
Youth unemployment in the World's fastest shrinking population is really frightening!
hope, hope, hope that it does crash....
🤣
GDP measures the consumption value, not the production. If people tend to spend more, products' pricing falls and GDP lowers even with the same exact production.
In almost every countries, there are 3 ways to count the GDP : by adding (all the added value + all the tax on products - all the subsidies on produts) OR by adding ( all the people revenue + production tax - subsidieries + benefits of companies) OR by adding ( all the consumption of products + financial moves + storage change + exports - imports). And after computing all those figures, the statistic bureau of the country is taking the average of those 3 number and take that for the estimated GDP. So, no: the GDP has a lot of inherent problems, but certainly not of not taking into account of the production. By the way, nobody should trust the statistic bureau of china on any of their figures ....
China + Collapse has been such a popular combination for decades.
I like this guys voice more
No, China is under transformation phase and not economically collapse, and easily following America's playbook a century ago. After following the Asian Tigers, now China is transforming from very low middle class ($10k capita income) to middle income like America ($60k). The debts are internal since China has huge trade surplus and foreign reserves. High household debts means people have to continue to work very hard... like America. And huge investments in infrastructure allows her backwards inner cities to catch up... like building up rural America. And more importantly rein in rouge private enterprises, is the wild wild East, with lean corporate governance, standards (ISO, certifications) and laws.
Therefore, with good infrastructure, people who wants to work hard, good control over private enterprise... question is how long will it take for China to reach half of capita income as America.
The Chinese are really trying to make the mortgage crisis of 2008 look like a mild fart.
What we need to put all of this in context: is a lot of this is due to a factional war between different factions ahead of the meeting later this year….
Did you buy your shirt from 'Shirts made from 1970s curtains R Us'?
I think China is in a tough spot because some of its current problems were caused by the leadership trying to resolve existing issues in the economy. The real estate sector was for years becoming increasingly overleveraged and was at risk of becoming China's version of America's Great Financial Crisis. Income inequality and cost of living was also becoming an increasingly major issue, especially in many of its Tier 1 cities. Something had to be done, painful as it was, to resolve it. Unfortunately, while I think its intentions were good, they effectively took a sledgehammer approach to resolving the problem which seems to have caused significantly more pain than a more well thought out policy might have created.
Overall, I don't think it will plunge into an economic crisis, but as long as the leadership focuses more on developing greater adherence towards its political ideology at the expense of sensible economic reforms and policies, then China will simply have to accept that it will no longer be the economic growth engine that it once was, even though its still technically a developing country. The country and its leadership will emerge intact, but its economic standing will be greatly reduced as its future outlook will no longer be as bright as it once was.
Taiwan 🇹🇼 Is a Great Country with rights and Freedom
And it's part of China.
@@2KSnSLifestyle no, China is a part of Taiwan.
@@2KSnSLifestyle What China ? Certainly not The PRC!! Taiwan 🇹🇼 Has never been apart of the PRC not even for one day The( ROC )Taiwan wants nothing to do with the commie bandits in Beijing And has been Independent for over 70 years
@@2KSnSLifestyle no it ain't
@@saman_pradhan Yup and India and Mongolia too.
Why didn't you put this on your economics channel?
Should've listed to Peter Schiff years ago.
Have we forgotten about the 2007-2008 financial crisis already - where and how it began, who were affected, what was the aftermath, and did the consequences change anything fundamentally?
Just like the rest of the world has already moved on from that crisis, China will move on from this crisis. We can dabble with punditry on other countries but it's meaningless in the grand scheme of things.
Turkey followed the low rates model and we all know how that went. I don't think China can collapse as long as the party can just freeze the accounts of people. Not having access to your money is not at thing that happened in the West at the worst times of the 2008 recession.
I think that's the end goal of the Chinese economic model, to manipulate it to the point where they can provide perpetual growth and wealth creation without every worrying about crashes, recessions or depressions. This would require the whole world and the Chinese people to drink the CCP Koolaid which will never happen. Planned economies usually don't end well so... I guess we shale see.
Neat
Do analyst estimated cost of security apparatus? It is enormous for sure, has to include police, monitoring of internet, extra numbers for mocking Wigers etc
The problem is happening everywhere in the world.. Look at UK and European GDP.
So saudi Arabia and India is not a part of world?
@@syhuhjk what you on about! 😂😂😂( the world / full stop )
They plan to start building giant tulip bulbs.
Negative sales? Does that mean that people give their clothes back to the stores?
Don't forget China Belt and Road Initiative disaster, Current Bank collapses in rural banks, customers being locked out of accounts and payment limits being put cards, social credit playing an effect ,the mortgage protest, the lay down protest, current weather anomalies, and tensions growing with Taiwan
For decades Japan's economy has been largely sustained by auto manufacturers. I wonder if continued growth in the EV car/battery industires could prove to be a bright spot for China's economy.
Absolutely.
No it won't, especially if imports are needed for materials to build whatever parts they need for automotive use. Sure they have foundries there, stamping and casting machines and all but without the raw materials ie. Aluminium, pcb components and software etc.... how do you accomplish your deliverables from 2023 onwards. Current data only shows extrapolated data till end 2022.
@@tsgu8728 Only time will tell.
unfortunately many EV batteries do use at least materials from CCP land because theyve invested much and are competitive on price. its really up to whether alternatives are affordably available
I found it strange that they kept manufacturing housing that nobody ever moved to years and years ago. Where did they think people who are going to move into these houses were going to come from? If they weren't moving in then, what made them think that things would be different in the coming years?
*me on the Darth Star*
Hahahahahahahhahahahah
Say no to 🇨🇳🐶🐱🥩
So called "Chinese model" lol, please - there's nothing innovative in that model
At the basic level it is related to the same economic models that were employed in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and today in Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia.
Nice shirt
I have been waiting for a week after countless CZcamsrs posted China’s economy collapse in three days
With inflation currently at about 10%, my primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $300k which has been be seating duck since forever with zero to no gains. Sure I'm all in on the long term game, but with my savings are lying waste to inflation and my portfolio losing gains everyday. I need a remedy asap
With the inflation what it is, the stock isn't going to be ranking in huge gains, it wouldn't be a bad time to BUY it, just don't expect big gains from it for a while, I'll buy once things start looking up in all those trouble areas........ Until then, too much turbulence for me.
People do underrate the importance of a financial advisor that’s why you hear people losing money or getting liquidated or buying in on the very wrong assets as the case maybe. Let’s say you want to retire in 10 years, buy a home or send your kids to a private college, to accomplish these kind of goals you would definitely need skilled professional with the right licenses to help you make those plans a reality and this is where financial advisor comes in. My goal is to buy a contemporary home before I retire and ‘’GERALD LEE PARKER ’’ has really helped me get closer to that dream.
@@fonsecamarvaldo9707 How can this person you mentioned that helped you be reached?
@@richarddobrien6631 look up his name on the web for his page where you can of course reach him through the internet.
Could the Chinese use their space program like some type of back up plan, like American did in the 50s and 80s to shift the people mines away from the economic problem's.
thats only needed for democracies. CCP has social contract with the people in which it delivers economic growth and improves people's lifes every year in exchange for political power, therefore it cannot and will not do those useless tricks to divert attention.
They will use a Taiwan war, or pressure at least, to keep the population exploited.
They'll likely use Taiwan as a backup plan
@@mrbonanza2606 lol, love how easily manupilated consumer of mass fake medias are. already forgoten that its US using pelosi's visit to stir up tension in the first place, now the fake media gonna pretend China is using the tension for divertion.
The space program was never about distracting people, it was about developing ways to deliver nukes.
This started many many years ago they've been building ghost cities 4 years most of their apartments have been MP4 years
Please make video on uk vs India economy