Germany, rearmament, and Ukraine - "Why 100 billion Euro may not fix the German military"
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- čas přidán 1. 06. 2024
- *see pinned comment for any corrections*
When Russia launched its February 24th invasion of Ukraine, Germany was one of the nations that experienced a dramatic, near overnight political shift.
Germany turned its eyes to rearmament after decades of reduced defence spending, while outside commenters criticised the limited number of heavy weapons the great Central European industrial power was able and willing to provide.
The reality is that Germany's military is both one of the best funded in the world, and also one of the least prepared for action with much of its military reduced to scrounging from other units while equipment is out for maintenance. It is a military hampered by deep budgeting and procurement difficulties that have caused its readiness rates and equipment to run down to dire levels.
German defence industry is among the world's best. It's capable of developing world beating products (especially when working with other European powers) but it operates at production levels, and in a procurement environment, that mean it has often been foreign militaries, not the Bundeswehr, that benefit most from German military-industrial potential.
In this video, I go through some history of how the Bundeswehr came to be so run down. I go after the myth that the Bundeswehr has been poorly funded (there's both a yes and no answer there) and go through some of the reasons I think Germany's planned 100 billion Euro equipment spend could go horribly wrong if proper reforms and plans aren't put in place.
To my German viewers, please take this as the friendly (if often critical) view of an ally across the sea.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Sources or resources:
Report on material readiness in the Bundeswehr 2021
www.bmvg.de/resource/blob/532...
Commentary on 2018 figures:
www.dw.com/en/limited-number-...
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/less-...
The BAAINBw CPM guidelines (in English) (Only for the very dedicated)
www.bundeswehr.de/resource/bl...
More relevant procurement rules and regs (again, for the dedicated)
www.bundeswehr.de/en/organiza...
2018 reporting on shortage of tents and basic equipment
www.dw.com/en/germanys-bundes...
Germany losing a lawsuit with H&K over the G36
www.dw.com/en/germany-militar...
DGAP - "Proposals for a new German armaments policy"
dgap.org/de/forschung/publika...
German Parliament blocking armed drones:
www.dw.com/en/no-armed-drones...
German ambition to make the Bundeswehr the most effective army in Europe:
www.rnd.de/politik/reaktion-a...
BEWARE OF POTEMKIN: GERMANY’S DEFENSE RETHINK RISKS REINFORCING OLD HABITS
warontherocks.com/2022/04/bew...
DW on the dangers of procurement issues in spending the 100 billion Euro
www.dw.com/en/germanys-milita...
RUSI on procurement issues in the Bundeswehr (2019)
rusi.org/explore-our-research...
Timestamps:
slightly better stamp, I've dropped them in the comments for now:
00:00:00 --
00:00:54 -- What Am I covering?
00:02:20 -- Hey Germans
00:02:59 -- History
00:06:13 -- Cold War Germany - West
00:07:37 -- Cold War Germany - East
00:09:31 -- Armee der Einheit
00:12:09 -- The broken Bundeswehr
00:12:26 -- Germany and France comparison
00:16:45 -- Scrounging and minor ambitions
00:19:16 -- German Advantages
00:19:42 -- German Advantages: German Industry
00:21:55 -- German Advantages: The Sharp Edge
00:23:35 -- What's going on?
00:23:51 -- Where does the money go?
00:26:39 -- The capitalisation issue
00:29:42 -- Procurement
00:30:16 -- Procurement disasters
00:32:16 -- Focking it up
00:36:42 -- The aggregate picture
00:37:56 -- Financial horizons
00:39:16 -- Defence investment is long term
00:44:19 -- Capability
00:45:31 -- Compliance & litigation
00:49:01 -- Politics
00:51:50 -- 100 billion euro
00:52:21 -- Zeitwende
00:54:50 -- The Dangers
00:56:40 -- Stage 1: The gold rush
00:59:02 -- Stage 2: The cracks
01:00:32 -- Stage 3: Strangulation
01:02:51 -- Stage 4: gold plate & decay
01:04:52 -- How to make it work?
01:09:32 -- How to make it work? The social and political change
01:12:09 -- And what of Ukraine
First, an apology to those who weren't prepared for seventy minutes on German procurement issues, we'll get back to things that go boom next week when we look at Artillery in Ukraine and lessons of the war to date.
Corrections or caveats:
Regarding the G36 issue, I use it as an illustration of lawsuits in Germany, but please read the case notes as H&K won for a reason and I wouldn't want aussie irreverence to take away from the fact they make great firearms. The 'defect' in this case was questionable - but the point remains. There was a performance characteristic that the Bundeswehr claimed constituted a defect - but there was no requirement in the specifications that called for or required that particular capability (whether you think that's reasonable or not is a different matter).
At one point in the voiceover I misspeak regarding the number of German active tanks and say "seventy five" rather than "seventy five percent" - the slide is correct but I mess it up in voiceover.
One point in which I am somewhat unfair to the BAAINBw is that I often conflate its role with the entire procurement process. It's worth stressing that I do not believe BAAINBw does not write requirements so much as procure them. This means you can't really put all blame on the BAAINBw, because if there's a gold plated or non-sensical requirement that comes their way, that's just their lot in life.
Regarding professional services, and I know this is a nit-pick, but I don't differentiate between professional services being used to run procurements (which they can't do, civil servants need to do that), as opposed to delivering projects which frees public servants to do other work (like procurements). Please assume that when I talk about consultants assisting, it will either be the latter or take the form of consultants 'advising' on changes to processes like procurements.
Also please remember that when I use hypothetical examples rather than real examples for certain points, it's to illustrate ideas while being (sorta) entertaining. I am not suggesting that they are totally realistic (and I'm not insinuating that German procurement officers would actually start downing schnapps in the office on hearing of a budget increase).
Oh yes! I'm definitely looking forward to next week.
When it comes to your videos, I'm of the opinion: the more/longer the better.
nah these are good, i'd lobve one about the uk since the uk is becoming russia's most strident western opponent in europe and their respective navies constantly interact
Seventy minutes is perfect, I enjoy listening to your videos whilst I'm doing chores or headed to work. I've recently started doing so whilst I do my cardio. Let me tell you, 20 minutes on the stairmaster goes by much more quickly with one of your videos.
70 minute should be the norm :)
I am Austrian and not German.
But I think, everyone in the German speaking world is agreeing on the fact, that the German Army does not look like a 50 billion € army.
^ this. Im german, I was in the german army and I was like "wtf 50 billions for that?"
Problem is that personal cost are already 28 billion
But you see, all of the friends and families of the German defense politicians need their kickbacks and dubious "consulting" fees.
It was this massive corruption that got von der Leyen promoted away to the EU
Austrians are germans...
@@Execue You are in the German army? May i ask whether or not the rumors are true. Those rumors are as follow: German military right now is in complete or at least partially shamble, where if need be, the armed force won't be able to work effectively. Und, ob es wahr ist, dass die Luftwaffe wegen alter Ausrüstungen ineffektiv ist.
@@Execue maybe they should'nt drink that much beer, and do some sports.. the German personal are fat, unfitt and untrained compared to other NATO personal. Besides that they hardly do execises at all, and if they do it...they sleep in buildings and train till 1700. Sorry....no..not to be taken seriously.
“While Russia does corruption, Germany does bureaucracy" I was laughing so hard,
but when in 34:35 you showed the ship i was in tears.
Peron wants to give Germany advice for militatry purchasing - from Australia? You are kiding! I looked up the Australian Army. They don't even have IFV's - so you don't have any experience even in buying an IFV. We produce this staff on a world beating level. You drive around with old american M113 from 1960. They are far to slow to attack with your M1A1 (they are also old). How do you attack an enemy with infantry? Riding on Kangaroos? We have the worlds best IFV - the PUMA. And we also produce the worlds second best - the Lynx - for nations who can't afford the puma. When you wait 20 years may be you can afford some of them? You only have towed Artillery in Australia - no self propelled guns! We have self-propelled guns since the 1940s. We gave up towed artillery in 1996 when PZH 2000 was introduced. You intend to buy the Boxer (produced in Germany) - we still have them for more then 10 years. So you have no Artillery, no Infantry Fighting vehicle (IFV) not to mention other special purpose Tanks like Bridge Layer, Mine Sweeper, Flakpanzer, Airborne-Tank, etc. This is not an Army in Australia it is a museum with serious gaps. You should better focus on Australia. Your advise is not needed, you should learn from Germany.
@@minimax9452 I was laughing cause it was funny. I know german and jokes don't do well together, but don't take it as an attack. Perun just has a talent for making his videos extremly funny, even when he talks about serious stuff.
@@morsmitt3126 a 70 minute long joke 😅? ok....it is a pile of nonsense youre life must be boring to wait so long for the pointe !
@@minimax9452 Oof. Someone’s a little butt hurt aren’t they? Your whiny little rant would be more appropriate if he compared Germany unfavorably with Australia, but he didn’t. He simply pointed out some uncomfortable truths without bias. Maybe take a page from the many other Germans in this comment section who know how to take criticism in stride like an adult, rather than embarrass themselves chest thumping while not actually refuting a single thing in the video.
@@Zarastro54 I even don't like when someone is talking nonsense - as simple as that. You can do the same story about the US Army (F-35, the littoral ships disaster,...), the british (frigates problems, carrier without protection, the IFV disaster,...), the french and so on. Its a close minded description of peron. And the Australian army is to expensive and totally incompetent. I stay with that
"While russia might do corruption, germany does bureaucracy." - Germany testing a military helmet for 10+ years for virtually no reason.
The cost over run on the training ship was the best!
@@edwinsalau150bro that was hilarious, honestly this video is just so funny how focked up procurement is in germany
This system has entrenched itself because the Germans know they can hide behind the Americans.
Russian soldier - not having a helmet because it was "misplaced" and sold on the black market.
German soldier - not having a helmet because procurement is not sure if it'll fit on a german head as well as it fits on american one.
"while Russia might actually be on the winning side of the Napoleonic Wars and WW2...GERMANY was not"
Former Germany army officer here: You are spot on, I have been complaining about this stuff for 15 years...
I would like to give some additional comments/anecdotes:
Procurement policy can lead to equipment getting a somewhat mythic status, jus for its rarity. The army introduced the Heckler&Koch MG4 squad machine gun to supplement the old MG3 even before I joined the force in the mid 2000s, but it was so rare that nobody even talked about it, I myself only learned of its existence after I left years later, without ever seeing one first-hand. Things like this made it inevitable that soldiers who would leave their regular units for deployement training (for things like ISAF) would have to spend considerable time training with the equipment and weaponry used by the ISAF forces, for none of that was accesible to the normal soldier.
From personal observation the seeming lack of combat effectiveness of the German military is also due to laziness. Partially because of minimal funds, many soldiers would attend live fire training exercises on a shooting range only one day per year. There you are being handed several rounds of ammo, maybe worth half a magazine, shoot at your target and be done with it. AGSHP shooting simulators, which existed in every base, were never used outside of basic training. Mandatory physical training was not done very often. If a soldier did not do additional workouts in their freetime, they would likely only fulfill minimum requirements (things like running, marching etc). I was always amused by the outrageous athletic deeds my civilian friends believed us to be capable of when we were all far from it. The majority of German soldiers are office clerks effectively.
One important issue you did not really address is the second transition the Bundeswehr will have to go through now, after never having finished the first.
During the Cold War NATO countries had very specific strategic tasks in case of an all-out-war scenario with the Warsaw Pact and they equipped their armed forces accordingly. Germany maintained a highly mechanized force, heavy in armor, because they had to delay and defend the inner-german border against coloumns of Soviet tanks and make counterattacks where possible. Other countries had other tasks and thus other capabilities. Post-1990 the Bundeswehr and Germany had to find a new place for themselves in a world that was becoming evermore vague and blurry. Starting in the Balkans and later much more importantly in Afghanistan, the Bundeswehr tried to become a peacekeeping force with a quick reaction character. Such a force has a need for infantry mobility vehicles/MRAPs and strategic airlift capacities and forces trained to conduct assymetric warfare, but not much for armored brigades plowing through the north-german plain. They spent countless billions trying to become this kind of force, never fully achieving their goal and with the failure of the international Afghanistan policy and return of the Taliban after 20 years of blood and tears, it is questionable if peacekeeping missions like ISAF will be continued in the coming decades. Now the Bundeswehr, with the sudded emergence, or rather return, of the conventional Russian threat in Europe, it will have to revert back to how things were like 30 years ago, in a way.
Another procurement issue is what I sometimes perceive as a political intent of arms industry protectionism. Germany is very much inclined to purchase equipment from domestic suppliers, even if it might not always be beneficial. Let's say the Bundeswehr has weapon system A, which is becoming obsolete. They open a bid for replacement system B. The big german/european arms manufacturer says 'I can give you B for cost X in 10 years!'. In the meantime an alternative is already available for less than X, but from an american supplier. Instead of buying the latter, they choose to stick with the first offer and since it's not fully developed yet, they add hundreds of insane requirements, which eventually increase development cost further and extend the process, so B is only ready in 20 years instead of 10, meanwhile system A is hopelessly outdated, but has to be kept in service, with low effectiveness and astronomical maintenance cost, just to preserve the capability.
Outstanding analytical work, Perun! I shall petition you being made minister of defence of Germany.
Hopefully such a thing as ISAF will never exist again!
Thank you for commenting from your experience. I was shocked at what the U.S. garrisons in Germany have become, when I experienced it while at Landstuhl after Iraq, and the opinions I witnessed of German citizens on their own military. It seemed to me that those Germans had no clue of the seeds of chaos sowed in the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, and the triggers for the ongoing "mass migration" and what that means not only for the European Union but for those migrants' countries of origin.
As a German, I wish this video could be required viewing for all my political representatives.
yes and be sure share it with as many of your friends as possible and ask them to watch it. Word of mouth advertising is the fastest way to spread good content.
and it isn't just the military, this short term patching up of the country is a systemic problem not to mention the long chain of private contractors whose sum of profits add further to the inefficiency of state spending.
This should be watched by all Western politicians. Wake up and seriously rebuild military.
@@isunlloaoll I worked for an American Military Contractor, producing parts for hellfire missiles. Our sales and quality staff got CLAPPED by the military procurement people at every opportunity, they just loved screwing with us in ways that cost our small manufacturing firm piles of money. We had shipments returned for 100% inspection on some new requirement pretty regularly.
@@nozrep I've been spamming my friends with Perun videos since the all bling, no basics video. Good info needs to spread, especially when there is so much inferior info out there confusing people.
I am German, also serving in the German Air Force for 12 years. This video is amazing. 100% accurate, incredibly thorough research, I am deeply impressed. The best summary of the issues we face with German military I have ever come across. Amazing job!! Also with all the other videos, which are all top quality. Keep up the amazing job!
as a civilian it is horrifying but sadly not surprising how shit the structure of the Bundeswehr that actually tries to make the soldiers work as ineffecient as possible
I am a former German soldier with a very good insight into the military industry. You are spot on with your analysis, very well informed and there really is no need to be so apologetic. In fact you will have trouble finding a well informed reasonable German with such a positive attitude towards our military industrial complex.
guess you are right, also a german here. In my pov most Germans dont want to face the reality of the need of an army. For obvious historic reasons. And i think it is somewhat understandable. Personally i think it was a mistake, but i think if we want, and our European partners kick our asses a bit politcally, we will be a very strong source within our partners.
Yet, we should be careful as we have the historic burden. I talked more about this with my UA/PL friends than with Germans actually. They still would rather hide.
@@mountainmoments What pisses me off about this attitude as a non-german, is that Germany isn't going to pay the price for it's failures. Ukraine is paying the price, and if war breaks out, Poland will pay the price, but the bombs are not going to get to Germany. Now if Germany decided it was ok with outsourcing it's defence to Poland, Ukraine, Finland, and the baltics, and then bankrolled their miiltaries instead of fixing the Bundeswehr I would be fine with that. It would still be indirectly contributing to NATO, and it would be extremely effective spending. It might be disappointing for Germany to do this, but it would keep everyone safe.
@@user-cx9nc4pj8w you live in a free country or eu. you may demonstrate for your opinion. you may convince some germans.
Wie gets mit military Industry? Wann Drang nach Osten?
Well, as another former German soldier and why I overall agree, I do see some aspects where the analysis falls short. The major point is: Those 100Bn are exactly pledged to and designed to circumvent the otherwise annual or bi-annual budgets in parliament. They will be available even under the next parliament, (more or less) regardless if there is a shift in power.
Aside that, I am for example very skeptical wether or not the whole "G36"- issue was actually really one of military suitability or not one driven by political (or cutltural) motivation (or even economic lobbying). Just as the recent "Puma crisis".
When I entered the army as a conscript, we were still supplied with the "proven and tested" olive uniforms, the G3 rifle and the P1 pistol and the old standard "Rucksack". And "Flecktarn", G36, P8, etc. we received when I entered officer training were simply so much better. And I did serve four times abroad; twice in AFG.
In particular, the most recent claims about the Puma made me somewhat suspicious. Now, I genuinely don't know if the Puma is a good IFV. BUT - given that there are 100Bn to be distributed among the Bundeswehr - it made me highly suspicious in the first place how the E-Mail of a commanding general could become public in the first place. And secondly, why the basic claim is that all ... I repeat "all" ... tanks failed. And as testimony he qouted a "Schirrmeister" for that. You really want to tell me that the Puma is so broken that even a "Schirrmeister" cannot salvage enough spare parts to make it work?
Depressing but very well done, as usual. I laughed at, "you can have an impressive military and not invade Poland or France."
But can we at least still invade Belgium, right?
I mean it's a time-honoured tradition!
I doubt that. At least for an army of German native speakers.
Luxembourg, final offer.
@@user-xu2pi6vx7o
Only on weekends, but you must be home by Monday and leave it as neat as you found it.
(But you may find the beaches are better and in Greece)
@@user-xu2pi6vx7o Belgium is where Germans and Anglos go to solve their differences.
Belgium exists solely for that reason.
As a German, I have to say that the effort you put in to pronounce all these words even the Germans make fun of for being monstrosities is very much appreciated. Also that kinda-neutral outside look is very valuable. German media is throwing dirt all over the place on these issues but seem to be unwilling to not finger-point.
As a german speaker, i dont think the words are monstrosities, they are just puttogetherwords. Noone would call sentences a monstrocity for consisting of many words, except for the work of Thomas Bernhard.
@moartems5076 I can respect german but if you bring puttogetherwords into English I will consider calling the king of England in retaliation
@@sol2544 Too late, there are already put together words in english that came from german language, like kindergarden.
@@axell964 ohh really? "I'm german and i'm soooooo proud i'm allowed to be proud again"... guess we can start and loose another WW soon - and then 50 years later bitch about Dresden completely ignoring London etc.
As a German tax payer this has driven me nuts for years. The Bundeswehr needs to be reinvented in some places and people who do procurement need to be replaced with those who actually intend to make the German army well equipped and functional.
Hey, at least the G36 gets replaced 😏
@@frederikqu7717 We still don't know that. It will be voted on September if they order a few hundred HK 416 A8 for troop trials.
@@scratchy996 True, there are a few last obstacles
Just look at what happened when they decided to go with a new rife for there troops that was like 3 or 5 years ago. It's been a total disaster which companies fighting and getting lawyers involved after they picked a winner and then changed there minds
Replacing procurement personnel will not work. According to Perun they are understaffed as it is. So who wants to do that job. Especially if there's a threat that if you do not get the job done quickly enough (which probably is not possible) you get fired just as your predecessor. And in the end they follow the rules set by the ministry and the Bundestag. If those do not change the new guys will have the same problems.
5:58 - The Wehrmacht gets a lot of hype (less than it used to ten years ago), but there’s not enough credit given to the German military of WWI, where they took on EVERYONE simultaneously, for *years,* dragging a dead empire and a dying (but still dangerous) one behind it. And while the notion that the German army finished the war “undefeated” is pretty questionable, one cannot deny it was a ferociously dangerous opponent right up to the end.
I was a German soldier for some years and from my perspective this video is on point, and there is no reason to apologize at all. It's not just that it made me chuckle to see a picture of my former unit still using their old gear from the 70's. I'm glad that I've decided to leave by 2004, especially after all those changes by Guttenberg and successors that have made the misery even worse.
The Bundeswehr could be a fine military. It's doctrine and entanglement with civil society is beyond of what most (even western) countries have, to prevent any development of "Freicorps", blind obedience and uncontrolled paramilitary stuff from ex military personal that we have suffered from in the past centuries. Unfortunately even this has fallen short during recent decades. At least our Bundeswehr still leans more towards democracy and liberty than our police does...
Do a sufficient number of parliamentarians _want_ the Bundeswehr to be strong? (I've only watched 24 minutes.)
In Switzerland, we're finally getting an upgrade to our individual equipment starting next year. I'm pretty excited for the update since I'm still using gear from the 90s which was developed in the 80s lol
@@RonJohn63 This is a good question. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, I would say yes. But the party affiliations might surprise you. The Greens are the most vocal party arguing for weapon deliveries to Ukraine. They have made a full turnaround from pacifists to realists, probably because they realized you cannot have peace without a strong military. Then there is the old-school left who haven't changed and only want to surrender, the nominally pro-Bundeswehr middle (the ruling Social Democrats are split in the middle between the last two) who like to say soothing words about our soldiers but never make the necessary changes. This includes the conservatives (who in fact have caused most of these clusterfucks). And then there is the far right, who support the Bundeswehr, only they want to turn it back into a white supremacist Nazi Wehrmacht and get some more genocide done. So, overall, I think the Ukraine war has pushed the share of politicians who REALLY want the Bundeswehr to work over the 50 % threshold, if only slightly.
@@antonnurwald5700 very interesting analysis.
Same in every western country the military tends to be more about freedom of the people, the police tend to be the opposite.
Writing from Germany, I'm happy to say that this video is really spot on, there is no need to be so apologetic - the content is important, the analysis is differentiated, the quality superior (only one tiny orthographic error). This is what CZcams should be - doesn't always need to go boom, and there was enough of it there. Your audience is made up of big boys and girls and people of all genders who wear trousers and are happy to choose watching this and learning something. Keep on keeping on!
Especially for Germans... We are direct and have mostly almost 0 national pride, the Bundeswehr is mostly seen as a joke inside germany too so there's really 0 need to be apologetic...
Great point. This is what the internet is supposed to be. Random people sharing information and their opinions for other random people to digest. Greetings from California.
The german government cannot allow the military to get too strong.
Everytime that happens they start a war. There's a reason they are so weak and undertrained . Those that join the military in Germany typically have right winged views, some with far right wing too and cannot be given the opportunity to encitr a coupe de ta'
@@meamzcs - I wondered what Germans might make of Perun’s call to decide about Germany”s national identity and whether that includes a capable military. The shadow of the Second World War is long, I understand. Among Germans, there seems to be a very strong need to shy away from nationalism or the development of a military capable of aggression. I saw this among German military officers who I had the pleasure of working with in the 90’s but I wondered how it sits today with the average German.
One of the 2 genders wears trousers? Disgraceful.....
“While Russia does corruption,Germany does bureaucracy.” Haha 😂 good one Fam!
I dont wana know how fucked it was in WW2 making tiger tanks.
I heard that the US Airforce and Navy are trying to do something like Russia. Every 8 to 15 years maybe 20 at the most crank out something new and put it into service ASAP to keep up with technology. However if we look at Russia..they brag about their SU57, their T14 and their Terminators right? We have yet to seen any of these in Ukraine.
German here, I'd go that far to say that incompetence if not borderline corruption are involved in german military spendings. Covered up by said bureaucracy. Oh well, my tax money well burned, I guess...
Deutsche Bahn is a good example.
@@Bullminator WW2 germany had endless competing providers, all lobbying nazi bigwigs to get pet projects up. The end result was instead of immediate standardisation on a simple set of good enough planes and tanks, there was a plethora or idiotic and diverse ideas that just wasted R&D, money, time, resources and people, all of which was in short supply. My favourite was a coal powered jet delta winged interceptor (yes) and a vertical launch roto copter with jet engines on the ends of the blades/wings.
This is of course on top of Hitlers lunacy with 200 ton tanks and monster guns and whatever else someone could excite him about.
as a German I have to say. You explained our fundamental problems perfectly. I'm not a military fan, but I see the need for a capable military. The problem is that we like to complain about everything but actually want everything to stay as it is. Some things can not be squeezed in 20 minutes so I am happy about every channel that takes the time to discuss things in detail. You won a new sponsor today.
Now, a year after your spot on analysis, with the war getting ever more dangerous, the Bundesamt managed to spend only a fraction of the 100 billion. How right you were. I am a civilian state employee in the education system. We experience the same strangulation of infrastructure by very similar "rules" , and I bet the desaster of the traffic and transport system has the same systemic origins. Greetings from Germany.
With respect to the daftness of procuring helmets, I am reminded of the comment by the head of the US Army that the amount of money being spent on testing for the new pistol (which became M17) was so ridiculous that he could go to the local sporting goods store with a credit card, and buy everyone a pistol for the same amount and get a bulk discount. It was just a pistol, not the next moon rocket! (He was exaggerating. He'd only get about 15% of requirement for the cost)
The irony is that even the next moonrocket sls is pretty much a nightmare project in terms of deadlines and cost for NASA to the point where they are still testing the fuelling procedure one month before the projected launch date.
@@thestrangeguy6084 The fuel loading procedure has always been a pretty fluid procedure (pun intended). The biggest problem with SLS right now is the slow launch rate, and the need for a second tower that's 1B$ OVER the budget of 400M$
Presumably the local sporting goods store (shooting what with a pistol is 'sporting'??) is selling weapons to be used infrequently, and not in a military environment?
@@balcsi32 well I guess a launch rate of 0 is pretty slow...
@@thestrangeguy6084 To Be honest, NASA has always been a big believer in reinventing fire when it comes to its procurement.
I served in the Bundeswehr as a conscript from 2009 to 2011 and would like to add my 2 cents to your well reserched and insightfull video. I think it'd make sense to also mention the cultrual aspects of why the Bundeswehr is in the state that it's in right now: After the horrors of WWII, (West)Germanys army was supposed to serve as an eclusively defensive force. The objective was and still is to this day to defend the country and its Nato allies. After the fall of the iron curtain, that army lost its purpose, it was never designed to have expeditionary capabilities. This change of the political envireonment made the Bundeswehr sort of obsolete. I think many people, not only our politicians thought that a war on European soil was a thing of the past. "Never again" is the German mindset in regards to war.
Another important aspect is that due to the aforementioned horrors of the past, people tend to dislike the military as an institution. What is in other countries an honorable profession is in Germany regarded despicable. Therefore it's politically disadvantageous to advocate for any improvement of the armys capabilities, especially if it means an increase in defense spending (unless there's a war going on at the time). I guess I have to mention the war on terror in Afghanistan and other oversees commitments of course. I think that decision was made impulsively after 9.11 and questioned immediately, as can be seen by Germanys decision not to enter into the war in Iraq. The war in Afghanistan was rather not popular while the presence of the Bundeswehr in other regions generally flies under the radar of public perception.
What I'm getting at: Events in the past have led to a culture in which the Bundeswehr is very unpopular which contributes to the problems of recruitment and defense spending.
The German martial prowess was killed off or bred out.
geez, Germany needs to let go of their guilt regarding the past.
Japan has the same experience and issues with the public perception of their military but with similar expenditures appear to have a far more capable military.
Your first point is an important one and well made, not sure I completly agree on your second point any more, it is a position where Germany has been, for sure, but I think inside a big part of the German populus there has been a perception shift within the last 20 years and I think the war in Ukraine will speed this process up. I fully agree with Perun's analycis however, that Germany now has to decide what kind of military it wants/needs and that includes an affective communication vis a vie the German citisenry.
@@robertadams998 The problem is the fundament, while Japan is even slower to change compared to Germany, the fundament isn't nearly as rotten. Germany had the unification and everything done after that was basically just to keep it together somehow, so all the processes are basically more duct tape than actually structure.
As a German coming from a military family (back to 17th century), still having some family members serving as officers in the Bundeswehr and decided to not join the Bundeswehr and do civil service instead: You are definately right about your "prophecy" what will happen to the extra budget. The same... line of conclusion did my relatives in the army, that this money will just go down the sink. Again. With no proper improvement. The issue is that there's a VERY stiff hierarchy in lots of departments of the Bundeswehr, meaning: It takes often DECADES to replace people (and the system they build around them) in charge. Even if they totally f*ck up, because: Which other department wants such a nugget? And ofc those speak for those with a similar mindset.
Underfunding is so extreme, to post an example: My cousin was hardly able to get his flight hours, because... There were (almost) not enough working EF Typhoon to practice on (e. g. even of 80 "verfügbar" EFs only 50 % actually were able to take off) and most (80 %) of the recommended annual flight hours were... hours as flight instructor. So basically: He went there to fly, fly, fly - and ended up behind an office desk.
This got even worse when he resigned (because of that), because they put him for the remaining time to a 100 % office job with no purpose, means: he sat his last months in an almost empty office, not even having any office equipment, with no task to do, simply waiting for the time to pass by.
And yeah, one observation hits the nail on the top: Germans are usually fine with the Bundeswehr being a laughing stock. No one really thinks the Bundeswehr is any serious threat or taken seriously by any enemy. And people going there are usually seen as "not fit for the rest of society/private economy". No one who really has a high opinion of himself or values his skills on a higher level thinks about going there. The "fun" thing is: applications got (also because of that) that worse, that even the Bundeswehr nowadays has to refuse a lot of them.
Plus: You now have a serious chance to die, also due to the chaos inside the Bundeswehr, what has driven away even more of the few actually being fit on a higher level. Because no sane person wants to risk his/her life just because... you lack any equipment to protect you against the incoming threats in the field.
Also Germans are in the described "existential crisis", that they are "proud" of their dysfunctional military and being transformend from a warmongering into a peaceful nation - and suddenly challenged by others to not be anymore. That's like telling a child that's proud of not hitting others and valueing that... to do so. Now. Without getting into a moral conflict.
That's why even "scandals" like the Gorch Fock weren't any big thing in Germany. Because... what do you expect from a bunch of "people with lesser qualitites" handling money? It just fits the public image of the Bundeswehr being totally incompetent. Same with the withdrawal from Afghanistan, even if that was mainly not the Bundeswehrs fault being such an emberassment and slap in the face of everyone supporting them in Afghanistan. You expected them to fail, but maybe not on this (humanitarian!) level. And if it weren't for the many local forces that were left to the Taliban retaliation, what was regarded as a humanitarian crisies caused by Germany, even that wouldn't have created a stir.
Btw. the reason why I didn't join the Bundeswehr was kinda... grotesque. Because my granddad and dad, both being former NVA special forces officers, "forbid" me to, regarding the Bundeswehr as a "bunch of f*ggots". Or as my dad referred as a "sign of quality": "In the NVA we had a reasonable suicide rate..." (regarding to the Russian/Soviet "Dedowschtschina", that was also existent in some parts in the NVA) and if I really wanted to join the military, then the Légion étrangère. Being "real military".
Why should any German feel with his Army as long as they are not allowed to follow their own interests but have to serve for US interests?
@@christopheder1447 Troll somewhere else.
@@NSA.Monitored.Device I am not a troll. I am a Austrian who has done his military service in the Bundesheer of this neutral Country. And I disagree with all Worldpowers or companies who use people and Countries for their interests. And I belief that the Anglosaxons life like they say: "We don't have friends but intersts." So do the Russians and the Chinese. So did the French and the Germans and even the Austrians when they had Power until WWI.
Not wasting any more time on this bs.
Do you or your relatives know how the defense procurement system worked during the Cold War, when presumably it worked well enough to ensure the Bundeswehr was one of the best armed forces in NATO? What were the changes made, if any, after the Cold War ended, that caused it to become the laughingstock it is today?
This is the most comprehensive video on the issue I've ever seen. Media in Germany will either point to one or two of these issues and go incredibly deep into the details on one specific process or just complain about the procurement system in very general terms (too slow, too complicated). This video actually gives an overview over nearly all known issues while also providing examples to really give the viewers an idea of what all those technicalities actually amount to in the end. Very well done, this should be dubbed into German and shown on national TV!
One very small mistakes I noticed - or rather thing that need clarification: the special fund doesn't have to be spent in those 2.5 years and I'm certain it won't, since the BAAINBw lacks thousands of civil servants to even manage the current procurement process (and hiring consultants has become very unpopular since von der Leyen managed to spend hundreds of Millions on McKinsey and others and get fuckall in return). The special fund is outside the regular budget, it's even been written into the constitution, or rather the ability to establish a special fund of "up to" 100B outside of the Budget by taking on credit as a one-off thing. There is a seperate law regulating the details, but as per the constitution and as far as the general understanding of this special fund goes, the government can spend it however they see fit, though they will probably TRY to spend as much as possible within this legislative period to avoid leaving "free money" for the next government.
As for the 2% commitment, we will see. People in Germany were very confused as well. Initially, the general understanding of Scholz' speech right after the invasion seemed to be that there will be 2% of GDP in the regular budget + the special fund. That, as it turns out, is not the case. Either Scholz' initially meant it that way, but later used the (not really?) ambiguous wording in his speech to backpaddle, or he is terrible at explaining things properly (honestly, both could be true simultaneouslly). What is actually happening is this: the regular budget remains about the same, but we can buy new equipment with the special fund, which also frees up resources in the budget to be reallocated now, because that money is no longer needed for its original purpose.
How effective the spending will be, we'll see. Since you uploaded this video 8 months ago, not much has happened. 30B of the special fund are apparently "contractually bound", meaning the Bundeswehr is now waiting for delivery (I believe one of the projects included in this is the F-35), which might still take some time. As for the good news: the Bundeswehr has massively accelerated a program to actually equip every soldier with a vest and a proper combat uniform and a not-shit-backpack (as opposed to most soldiers only receiving such equipment upon deployment). This program was originally meant to last until 2032(!), at which point the Bundeswehr aimed to have every soldier properly equipped. It has now been accelerated massively (presumably with reallocated funds freed up in the regular budget) with the new deadline being 2025. The G36 replacement, an HK 416 variant is also finally entering production, delivery starting in 2024 (I think).
It seems we also intend to finally buy some mobile AA in the form of the Rheinmetall Skyranger after realizing that mobile AA is in fact not obsolete. Testing of the Radhaubitze RCH 155 (basically the gun of the PzH2000 but on a Boxer chassis instead of a Leopard 2) is also underway after we've realized that artillery is, in fact, also not obsolete. The Heer (Army) plans on introducing a whole new category of combat troops, the "mittlere Kräfte" (middle forces, as opposed to light and heavy forces). Basically a category of units equipped with mostly wheeled but decently armored vehicles, intended to combine speed and ease of maintenance of light forces with nearly the same power and protection of heavy units such as tanks and armored self propelled artillery.
From a German perspective, first of all: Perun, thank you for your service!!!! This made much more sense in answering so many questions I had about our own policies and troubles than anything I have found in any German language news outfit, private or public!
The question I am asking to myself is: how can I push "one Australian on the internet offering his recommendations" into the actual German public debate, where his wisdom is urgently needed. I think I'll try writing a number of e-mails to all kind of German editorial offices, and begging them to either rip you off or buy you up, or at least somehow watch your stuff and expend on it!
I agree rip him off and get the German public to come down on their elected.
As an American, I think this video gave me a much more nuanced and unbiased view of Germany from what I had before watching it. From the political structure, to the negative feedback loop built into funding the army, to that really strong question no one has an immediate answer to; "who do you, the German people, want to be on the world stage?". There's so much weight for the German people behind that decision.
I had lost a lot of respect for Germany over Ukraine. But now I'm seeing how multifaceted the situation is for Germany and I'm more sympathetic, if not equally frustrated. But my frustration is irrelevant, this is a German issue and a German decision, they'll get it handled.
@@zachj7953 "I had lost a lot of respect for Germany over Ukraine". Most people in Germany are in favor of more arms deliveries to Ukraine and also perceive our chancellor as too hesitant. I really dont understand what he thinks or whats his goal is.
But its good that we have overcome the regulation that forbade deliveries to war zones. This regulation is/was just dumb. Country 1 can buy Weapons from German Industrie. Then this Country can attack Country B. Now Country B cant buy weapons from Germany, even if they are not aggressiv and defending their homeland.
The last thing we want is a German response. Germany should not have the right to make arms. Historically Germany should never have the right to make arms
@@dustyfloor1896 Not at all. See 1:11:00 - 1:11:15.
If we're not to bow to Russian Nazism, we have to stand united - and part of that is ensuring that all members of NATO actually pull their weight.
It is wild hearing Poland repeatedly being held up by pundits as a shining example of how to run a military, how you handle wartime diplomacy or project hard power towards adversaries. It's almost like they absolutely refuse to be invaded by a megalomaniac dictator.... again.
Getting partitioned like a Thanksgiving turkey by foreign power four times in its history kind of reminds Poland why national defense is important.
Yeah, you similarly don’t have to remind Texans that it’s a bad idea to surrender.
You can say they are motivated
Their autism about making that exact same thing not happen directly led to just such a thing in 33 when they bombshelled any french effort to respond to germany new foreign policy in the name of "independent diplomacy" i see now just such an attitude from them when they are happy to poison watersupply across the border by their coal mining and refuse any settlement by a third party just to assert their independence, which in practice only leads to their isolation
@@kgjung2310 The parts that ended up under Prussian and Austrian administration were actually very lucky. They were run competently for basically the first time ever! Polish Parliament, liberum veto and all that. Notice how almost all the animosity and nationalism came from the "Russian" part... because that was anything but well run.
As a kicker on the Gorch Fock situation, the United States Coast Guard actually has a sister ship called USCGC Eagle formerly known as the Horst Wessel that we seized after world war II as reparations. Eagle was built in 1936 and the last time it was overhauled it cost 28 million US dollars. The Gorch Fock mentioned in this video isn't even the original and it's technically named Gorch Fock II IIRC. It was laid down in 1958.
Even bigger kicker: USS Constitution is a sailing trainer/museum ship that was laid down in 1794. Her last overhaul in 2015 cost $12 million, which was $3 million _under_ budget.
At the heart of a military is the statement: “We want our military to be able to do X.” For France, X is a nuclear deterrent and protecting their quasi-colonial holdings. For most countries next to Russia, X is not being invaded by Russia. But for Germany, what would X be? Going to war with Poland or France? Germany’s procurement dysfunction is simply the result of Germany lacking a clear objective for their military to accomplish.
There is a objective.
There *IS* a X for us in Germany.
We just didn't want to see it after the cold war.
It's protecting Germany and nato against Russia.
After the reunification we Germans desperately wanted to see Russia as our new best friend and we desperately wanted to believe Russia is now a nice country and that there would ne never a war again.
We didn't want to see the hash reality.
Russian kept Transnistria, the sperstist region in Moldova occupied since 1991.
They never left.
Russia invaded Georgia im 2008.
Russia was involved in Syrian.
Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014.
We just didn't want to see that hard reality:
That Russia was still and is still a threat to Europe.
We just blended out the reality, because we wanted to believe in everlasting peace.
So we completely downsided our military much much more than was good for us
Because we lived in a different reality in our minds.
X was and still is, to protect Germany (now unified) as well as our Nato allies from Russia.
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland can't protect themselves alone against Russia.
But we just didn't want to hear the harsh reality all those years.
That X was and still ist protection against Moscow against an invasion 😅
Hello Perun, may I suggest a video on the role that Belarus has been playing so far and could potentially play if it joined Russia in the war?
Don't do it. Belarus doesn't matter more than any other russian oblast.
It has already joined the war. You meant , if their land forces join?
I’m Belarusian.
Firstly, army has 45 000 active duty military personnel, half of them conscripts. Even the most battle ready units like SOF and paratroopers lack sufficient equipment, training and vehicles for full out war. They maybe could serve as a police or counter insurgence force on occupied territory, but not much else. They fight well only against civilians, like during 2020 protests.
Secondly, we have low war support level, 20-30 ish percent. Correlation with Lukashenko’s 2020 elections electorate is visible. Mostly elderly people from rural places. A pro-Ukrainian outlook is predominant. Cases of railroad workers’ sabotage during early stages of war are well known.
We are basically down to < 10 000 semi competent military personnel. But the thing is, Lukashenko would never let his loyal bodyguard units (SOF, OMON) go to slaughterhouse. He won’t be able to stay in power without them. He is just a crazy, old and teethless dog. Barks a lot, but won’t bite. At least in regards to foreign policy.
@@frggdeckkkydexhhgg Cheers for the insight.
@@frggdeckkkydexhhgg Thank you for your informative post.
I did not count how often i already was reading: “As a German i have to say”
But as a German i have to say it made me giggle a bit there at the slide What can 57bn buy you.
All 3 Scenarios are pretty sure some wet dreams of some Germans but the harsh reality would most likely be like:
We get an aircraft carrier only to realise the port infrastructure is missing.
We buy F35s but they don’t get a permission to fly.
We buy an army of drones and cant use them properly because our fckng internet connection and cellphone coverage is so bad that Ukrainian refugees cant even send their relatives pictures out of Dunkeldeutschland.
Yep. The digital infrastructure issue is even worse than the Bundeswehr. We have workers from third world countries working in germany and the most feedback we get is along "money is good, but internet speed is atrocious compared to home".
@@theshinken this is really surprising
@@theshinken My daughter is back from 5 years in Berlin. As a designer, she needed fast and reliable broadband. She was working from home during much of the pandemic and was reasonably happy with her internet access.
German bureaucracy was a different story, especially for a non native German speaker.
@@roberthayward9299 That sounds true, the thing is that in bigger cities you can get 50 mb/s connection, but a couple 100m beyond the city borders it's back to 1.5mb/s, not even speaking of really rural areas. It's a problem of a quasi monopoly of one state-private hybrid cpmpany.
"Where is the ethernet jack? What do you mean there is no internet in the dorm? I have to go to the library and wait in line to use the internet? Is this really Germany or did I get sent to Afghanistan by mistake?" - My thoughts, as an exchange student studying at Albert Ludgwigs Universität in 2004.
I really liked this video. 👍 Us 5 Norwegian viewers would love a similar video on our military procurement. I suspect many things mentioned in this video is true for Norway too, but the country is in a dramatic different strategic position and the private economy is also very different. If this video was rewarding for you, please cobsider makeing a similar video for Norway 🤗
I kinda think this applies for scandinavia and Germany in general: we are all very bureaucratic nations, for better or worse. I have little knowledge of how bureaucratic Norway is so you are very welcome to enlighten me on the subject, but I imagine we in Sweden are about on par or worse than you lot. At the very least it seems like Norway tend to get things done. So many Swedish projects either end up with everyone upset or stuck in some sort of phase, be it planning, lawyers or implementation.
@@09csr you have no idea the levels of Norwegian wastage in the public sector. Pretty sure the Norwegian state budget exceeds or is at least close to on par with the Swedish state budget. a nation with roughly twice the population. Norway doesn't get much better services out of the deal, if at all.
for an example, look at how the spending for our new goverment buildings in Oslo have ballooned out of proportion. we're up to I think 54B NOK now, from an original estimate of around 5B I think.
Take a look at Sløseriombudsmannen for some fun examples. our Sløseriombudsmann got inspired by the Swedish Sløseriombudsmann doing the same thing. Similar cases in Sweden and Norway tend to cost way more in Norway. Often an order of magnitude more.
I like to say that only Norway is rich enough to be so stupid with its money. It's wild over here, but we keep somewhat getting away with it because we're rich. Things do seem like they're getting critical enough to attract attention from the Norwegian people though, and with it hopefully change.
Great opener. There is a video of a german tank museum where they did something similar (only for like 40mins going straight). Describing a new army with new flexible doctrines etc, making you believe it's about the Wehrmacht, but revealing that this description was actually about Napoleon's grand armeé. Always nice to get your preconceptions shaken up.
As a German, I'm happy that your talking my country, excited for the video!
Same, I hope they change some things about the army, so that we stop burning money and use the funds efficiently
As a non-German, I'm happy that your talking their country, excited not for the video!
I hope you don't mind an Australian taking a shot at the topic. The reality of the Bundeswehr's issues is that no one can cover it in one video on YT, but I hope the outside perspective is interesting if nothing else.
@@PerunAU Its quiet a blessing to get an "outsiders" point of view on the topic. Since Germany's public is still struggling with the idea of being a military power. It seems we cant have a non-biased look at that topic.
@@PerunAU No one can perfectly cover any one thing in a single YT video, especially not the complexities of logistics and politics. But you make an hour+ of logistics interesting and engaging enough to listen through. That's a skill to be sure.
As a German i can say, perfectly researched on point. thx to do that video , maybe the world now understands the problems with german Bundeswehr better.
es sollte gar keine Bundeswehr geben das ist das einzige Problem das es mit der Wehrmacht gibt
@Brit intel: French Caesar Artil. won Snake Island And would you have anything of substance to add to that? Or is it just the usual anti-German palaver?
@Brit intel: French Caesar Artil. won Snake Island we have learnd not to send tanks in direction of stalingrad ...was a good and hard lesson ...dont need to do it again ;)
*Signed*
I can't wait for some wizard from another country to lead the allies forward on another fucking Crusade.
I've watched a few of your videos in no particular order. I know quality when I see it and this is absolutely amazing content. Quality research and analysis cutting right through the bs. Clear and concise while covering every aspect of the chosen topics. Keep up the great work!
What a fascinating video!
I'm rewatching your videos from the start. Thanks for the immense amount of work you have done. I enjoyed reading the comments from Bundeswehr servicemen , which support all your observations. Thanks again.
Now I'll watch you next one
I’m ex military purchasing, second tier, as in buying parts to put on tanks to sell. The picture you paint of a dystopian procurement system for Germany is 100% accurate and pretty close for the UK and France as well. Keep up the good work. 👍🇬🇧
It’s funny how true this rings to anyone who has dealt with the voracious appetites of armored vehicles or air-frames for replacement parts, small and large.
Do a deep dive into the history of the development of the osprey! So Marine Corps officers wound up ankle deep in manure! They cooked books! People have died ask the president and his people if they fly on this aircraft to this day!
Let's not forget what Australia did with the submarine contract with France.
If America would disengage from Europe the Euros would be forced to confront reality.
@@robgrey6183 hi, when America disengaged with a “European” issue, it eventually cost America hundreds of thousands of lives. Late entry into WW1-2. It’s a perfectly natural reaction to the stirrings of war over there, but eventually it becomes America’s problem because if the world goes to hell, economically and politically America follows.
Weeping German here :)
You've mastered perfectly to describe the really sad environment the Bundeswehr is in.
Perhaps some cultural issues the German society is facing for a better understanding of the engineering challenges in Germany:
1. We are a consensus oriented society. This means for engineering or procurement projects a lack of responsibility on every management level. Everybody has to agree, so everybody has always the chance to change or stop a project, nothing is ever finished. It's the same at every major company ...
2. As you described correctly: We love gold plated products. Overengineering has it's second name: German engineering.
3. We lack pragmatism. We want perfection. A working solution is never enough, it has to be the perfect solution - perfect at every possible or thinkable circumstance. If an implemented solution is not as perfect as thought (perhaps because of a changing environment or some extraordinary circumstances), we throw it away and start from the scratch. (e.g. G36 was never designed to work in really hot environment and with more than short burst shooting - all "above" that should of course be done by a MG. So when they started to use it for suppressing fire at Afghanistan, of course this thing got hot and unprecise.)
4. Because of 3 we often use an old, implemented solution much longer then necessary while waiting on the perfect new solution. One example: Munich is using really old subway trains while the depots are full of new trains. There are some issues with safety with the new ones. But I'm quite sure, the safety of the new ones would be much higher than the safety of the really really old ones we are still using there. But nobody will take over the responsibilty to give a go on the new ones - so they will be old if they drive for the first time. Same for the helmets: We are using knowingly unsafer ones while testing forever new, safer ones. A pity for our soldiers in combat.
Well Germany does make arguably the best products in the world you're doing something right you just had your balls taken after ww2 get your balls back Germany lol
This, this is literally my mindset for nearly everything in life. It has caused me so much issues, that I have even wondered if I have a mental illness because of it and whether visiting a therapist. Hoenslty I have no idea how to get rid of auch an annoying way of thinking, I would probably be stuck with it until I die.
G36 turned out just fine, ammunition was faulty. In Mexico and other countries built under license, works just fine.
Thank you @Jurgen for your perspective. I'm an English Engineer. IMHO German engineering has a really high reputation in the UK. I never stopped to consider how the desire to push for perfection can have negative end results. Normally the world just sees the German products that are completed and reach the market, not seeing the wasted resources on good (but not perfect) products that get ditched during development.
Honest discussions are the only thing that will lead to improvements. If we lie to ourselves about the state of our military (the tasks they are required to perform vs. training and equipment) then unnecessary lives will be lost.
Philosophers striving for the ideal.
Hey Perun, felt the need to echo the other comments, your content here is stellar. In addition to this, that the quality of your content is much more important than some arbitrary production schedule. We come here for quality, and we stay because of it.
Thank you for your insights, they were very educational.
I am definitely a fan of this channel. I just binged a bunch of videos and I can believe I have been listening for 5 hours. Great stuff man have the talent to teach without us students realizing we are learning and being informed. Keep it up you really have the power to captivate.
Glad I’m not the only one doing a binge-watch after discovering Perun (I’m late, I know, and an Aussie so additional shame for only just getting the memo on my fellow countryman’s talents😂)
Hi Perun,
I'm from Munich Germany, and i must say, you are absolutely right, it's so embarrassing.
The bureaucracy, the Waffenbeschaffungsamt, the whole organization is so bad you cannot imagine.
May i add two points here to your very good presentation.
1. After the two lost wars, there was a complete change in German society, concerning Military and Government Topics.
The military was seen as an necessary evil, because everything that was connected to weapons, war, military, was seen as evil. In the cold war, we made jokes about the Bundeswehr, I'm sure in case of conflict with the USSR, we would screwed it up. During those times, nobody wanted to go to the Army and in worse case, go to fight. We had the axiom, better red than dead :) .
Concerning Politics, we no longer wanted to be governed, by some crippled emperors and or insane dictators.
2. After reunification in 1990, the big enemy was gone. We and the NATO as a whole, where struggling to find an enemy anymore. The "new" enemies where terrorist groups. And the Bundeswehr as any other army in the world, was not prepared to fight against those new "asymetric" warfare. In my personal opinion, an army is not the proper tool to fight terror, but thats another story.
So thank you very much for your excellent work !
Best Regards from Germany !
Very efficient manufacturing of syllables, though !
*better red than dead
BAAINBW (Bundesamt für Ausrüstung, Informationstechnik und Nutzung der Bundeswehr) is the term you were looking for ^^
@@fredburns6846 Besser rot als tot, I would have to guess is the original phrase. It's neat that it rhymes in both languages.
That's funny, in Sweden we jokingly (with some underlying seriousness, especially in regard to our eastern "friend") use the proverb "Hellre död än röd", meaning "Better dead than red". The exact opposite, quite curious. There's a strong sense of support for continuing our streak of 500 years of independence. Even if that means taking up arms. There's also the Soviet invasion of Finland, and then the Nazi occupation of Norway and Denmark. All leaving somewhat fresh battle scars in the Nordic identity.
But we've not had any imperialist ambitions for hundreds of years, so it's understandable that the German sentiment would be different. However I would hope that Germany could maintain a strong army while still being a strong advocate for peaceful cooperation in both Europe and the world at large. Like Sweden, but with 8x the GDP ;)
Good point regarding army being the wrong tool for terrorists, I think we can see this quite clearly when looking at modern armies deployed versus guerilla style combatants. Efficiency is minimal compared to fighting a qualified state backed force in conventional warfare. Armies also have difficulties implementing the required social changes necessary for countries like Afghanistan to not fall back into the state it was in before intervention.
Thank you for taking your time to make a case for the active German soldier. All officers, NCOs and men work hard to keep this army afloat. Every soldier buys his own equipment when it is necessary to achieve the objective (And sometimes because the good stuff is only available in limited numbers). Be that body armour, flashlights, mess kits or tarps and camouflage equipment. It just makes me sad to see that until the bureaucrats also develop such a commitment to the mission, that is to protect Germany and her allies, I will likely not see any change in my active career
on the individual initiative of my grandfather the women in his home village produced socks for the soldiers to go to Russia for war. Where did this lead to? 2 out 3 did not return (or worse). An Army needs to be well equipped with socks, helmets, heavy artilliery or whatever is needed.
But the weakness of German army is not equipment. It is will. Society and politician need to accept funding an army is not intended for building schools and bridges, but to defend and -if needed- fight. And fighting can become bloody at times.
I think many European states are this way, with the exception of those next to Russia. I think France is the only major European country that is trying to maintain a reasonable military force. Dysfunction seems to be the norm these days.
@@Hellvern France and Poland stand out as the two European states that have a whole 'never again' ideology behind their defense, and take it extremely seriously. Every other 'big' European power seems to have a military only to send some dudes to bumfuck nowhere for the UN and not piss the US off for NATO too badly.
@@gaychampagnesocialist7213 :-D Hillarious comment, but sadly insightful.
@@gaychampagnesocialist7213 I think france is more willing to do militrary missions, however. They pushed for the lybian or mali missions. Besides Kosovo, Germany was only involved in a direct combat kind of mission when Afghanistan turned hot ~2006. Poland actually send soldiers into the fucking Iraq invasion, which is a bit ironic, considering how pissed they are about Ukraine (not that their support isnt awesome).
Excellent! Really like the pragmatic view - been going through the ‘back catalogue’ of videos - very enjoyable and insightful content
Absolutely fascinating and enlightening video. Thank you very much for all your effort.
When I was in 10./11. grade in Germany a few years ago, part of the curriculum was a segment dedicated towards career orientation. There, we had teachers as well as employees from the german employment agency tell us pretty bluntly that joining the Bundeswehr is for losers who can't make it on the free market. We were told that the Bundeswehr is a career dead end with awful pay and working conditions compared to similar positions at regular employers. I think this sums up the wider german attitude towards the Bundeswehr quite well. It is either ignored, looked down upon, or used as a laughing stock. The fact that many Germans still have bad memories from compulsory military service (which mostly consisted of being bored to tears and getting shitfaced) doesn't help either.
There were similar sentiments around 2000. Nobody really considered that a career option.
It would have cost me around 20k EUR in opportunity costs to do the mandatory service. Went to THW instead.
The Bundeswehr hates their soldiers. That's why I'm not afraid of them if they ever come to Switzerland where I live now. .
The key to keeping your Soldiers not bored to the point that their only alternative is alcohol, is to keep them occupied with training. Make successful large joint field training exercises the necessary gates for senior officers to become more senior officers and they will instill the required discipline in training, maintenance, and procurement. This is for peacetime armies and reserve forces. Armies that have opportunities (requirements) for actual combat have the added motivation of winning the fight and surviving.
@@glennmitchell9107 the issue, and i am sure you are aware is that training is extremely expensive, really expensive, and there is the political aspect, what is a defensive army constantly training for. So yes if you are looking at pure performance and soliders well being that would be the right call, but in germany almost everything also has to be politically justified.
@@tobin9575 Training is not so expensive when the alternative is more dead soldiers (and more dead non-combatants) than is necessary. Open minded commanders and energetic junior NCOs can come up with less expensive ways to accomplish necessary training.
As a German:
(0. This video is a perfect representation of the current state of our military and politics around it - and we are not happy about it.)
1. Even the decision to initiate reforms, will take years.
2. The definition of the specific goals and contents of these reforms will take years afterwards.
3. These specified reforms will be revised multiple times by different governments over the years - thus further delayed and overcomplicated. (speaking decades now)
4. The implementation of these reforms will take additional years or even decades.
5. They may will be cancelled over all by future governments, eventually.
-> Every German I know, would bet on that chain of events.
(6. A TON of money will be spent, without achieving anything.)
(7. A TON of money will be spent on useless consultants by useless and clueless politicians, that were never fit for their specific jobs.)
(8. We Germans are great with lists - that's it.)
If we had a minister of defence that was actually interested in his / her job instead of seeing it as a jumping off point for another career it would already help...
@@clemensmartin1034 Well, it's tradition by now^^
I am German and I would disagree, a 100b is a lot of money, even our Bundesamt für Ausrüstung, Informationstechnik und Nutzung der Bundeswehr can't waste that completly, I think about ...25% will end up in useful procurement, probably we can finally get the paratrooper helmets and I heard they need new boots, too. 😋
But you have to start somewhere. I mean, I'm not a fan of the words "effective German military", being from Eastern Europe and stuff, but it's an instinctive reaction, not intellectual. :) Intellectually, Europe has to have an effective and significant military, considering the situation around our borders, and with Britain Brexiting, us being tiny countries aren't capable to field a lot of strength (even Poland), and Italy being, well, Italy, it's pretty much up to France and you to have something like a military. So if it's a necessity, it's better to be a good one somehow.
So, we are certainly in favor of German military reforms and an effective army. Although I was a bit worried about that bit in the video about "German heads" being different for the purpose of helmets... :)
I know you're not lying about being German because you count from zero.
Very well made and researched video and you really nailed the pronunciation of the German words, even the more complicated ones! Really enjoying your videos!
Hi Perun , great content as always! You never disappoint.
Could I suggest a similar video analysing France's military ?
Hey Perun, German here. I cannot stress enough how awesome your analysis of German procurement in the military is! This video is absolutely great. And I am very reliefed to see someone finally pointing out that there is a very good reason for German beaurocracy when in comes to arming our forces, i.e. two world wars. This analasis is really profound and a lot better than what one can usually find in German. Absolutely kudoz for doing an amazing job! (again!!)
HOWEVER, there is one thing that seems to get missed a lot when it comes to answering the question on where all that money goes! At 24:00 you brought up the diagramm that shows how much more Germany spends on "Other" than any other of the mentioned states and countries does. However, you and many other commentators and analysts missed a very crucial point, which is even more surprising since you just talked about 15 minutes on the history of the Bundeswehr just prior to that. 😅What you and many others are missing is the fact, that Germany still has to pay a lot for having had two countries with two armies on its soil.
When Germany reunified in 1990, the two militaries were merged.
1.) Suddenly, the Bundeswehr had close to 600,000 men under arms! The former East-German NVA alone had 32,000 officers, with more than 2,000 of them being generals, admirals and majors. (I would love to give you the source on that, but YT is picky about links in comments. Just google for the following: "Band 26: Militär - Nationale Volksarmee (2012)" by Prof. Dr. Eun-Jeung Lee, Dr. Werner Pfennig) I know that in many countries, especially in the US, the contract schemes for people serving under arms is different. In Germany, being a soldier or police officer is not a job: soldiers and police officers become civil servants, which in Germany entitles you to several financial rights, like a pension, health care support, financial support for reaching a highwer education, etc., for the rest of your life. I know that other countries have similar systems, however the German system is much more expensive for the state. I am having difficulties describing the differences to other countries here. The core idea is: once someone has been a civil servant in Germany they'll cost the state a lot of money. Of those 32,000 officers East Germany had, only 1,700 stayed with the Bundeswehr. In essence, Germany still has got to pay for former Gernerals, Admirals, and other troops to this day, without gaining any military strength and personnel.
2.) The whole Bundeswehr prior to 1990 existed - as you correctly mentioned - to stop a Sowjet invasion force in case of a war. However, in 1990 suddenly there was no Red Army anymore. It was immediately worked out by all countries involved, that the last Russian soldier would leave German soil by 1994. The red threat was gone. All of a sudden, our army was useless, because the reason it existed in teh first place was just no threat anymore. So, in addition to the personel that was relieved off service mentioned in 1., a huge number of personnel in the West German forces, ie the Bundeswehr, were not needed any longer as well. All in all, the number of personnel decreased to just a bit short of 190,000. Everyone of those people that went to work for the private sector or that just straight claimed their pension are still being payed to this day as well.
However, I am not sure how much the two groups mentioned above are counted into the other category or into the personnel category. Both would be feasible. But those people used gear and vehicles and that brings me to
3.) The Bundeswehr shrank in size considerably. Therefore, many many vehicles and armour that was needed in the past was just rendered useless. To this day, the Bundeswehr has considerable armour from back then that is piece by piece being dismantled (that is also were the Marder tanks come from that were promised for Ukraine). And the East German NVA had incredible amounts of Soviet armour that was of now use for the Bundeswehr. The NVA had a Soviet-style tank force with around 2,500 tanks and 6,000 IFV, more than 100k of wheeled vehicles, among others. The KEY POINT is: when the two German armies united in 1990, those tanks and IFVs do not just vanish. They need to be decomissioned and dismantled. TO THIS DAY, there is a huge industry that makes millions PER YEAR, just by dismantling old Soviet armour and ammo. We still have warehouses full of that metal. It's all junk now, but someone still has got to pay for getting rid of that trash. Around the area where I am living, there are several companies with several factories, that just live of the dismantling of old tanks that are still from the late NVA era.
As you correctly stated in your vid. If anything were to happen during the Cold War, it were to happen in Germany. This country was packed with military equipment. And spending for a big military does not stop when a country decides to get rid of old junk no one needs. Especially when you need to get rid of a whole army. The fiscal stresses from the German reunification are still felt in every part of German fiscality, and the "heritage" of the NVA and the Cold War makes up a huge amount of this fiscal stress.
Just had to get that off my mind, because I don't see it mentioned anywhere when people talk about the Bundeswehr and the financial aspect of the German military. I just think it is a really important thing to keep in mind when asking, where a lot of that money goes.
Hm, ship all that ex Soviet stuff straight to Ukraine, they'll get rid of it in no time and they'll need no training. As resourceful as the Ukrainians have shown themselves to be, they'll probably even weld 1 running tank out of 2 non running ones in no time. Probably better than paying a lot for dismantling and correct recycling in Germany.
Excellent information, thanks for taking the time to write all that. I have always wondered what really happened to the NVA, all I knew was that unified Germany "inherited" them but I now see that immense capacity boost became a curse.
unsere bürokratie ist einfach nur lächerlich aka amtsschimmel. wir bräuchten deutlich weniger davon, nicht mehr.
That was really valuable information, thanks for taking the time.
Thanks for the additional information
You aren't "just one Australian on the internet" - you are a very well researched and deeply considered commenter who happens to be Australian.
@@screennameoflate7788 Are you on drugs.
If you're talking about our politicians, sure, maaaybe I can see where you're commin from.
If you're talking bout the general populace though... you just made a generalization about some 25.6 million people. You really believe, out of that many people, that there are ABSOLUTELY NO AUSTRALIANS, who are interested in learning about military capabilities past and present? Come off it.
Equally one could argue that the 329 million americans, assuming all of their general populace knows about how to be a soldier or whatever you were trying to get at... is laughable. How likely is it all the farmers in rural kentucky are familiar with the operations of an aircraft carrier or submarine? pretty damn low.
Short version? Don't make generalizations, it makes you look bad.
@@screennameoflate7788 cringe lmao, touch grass
Due to recent advancements in modern medicine he can now be cured of boganitis!
@@leoarronson8845 treatments include a yobbodectomy lol
@@Destroyer_V0 screen name of late is either a very sore individual or someone deliberately trying to discredit Perun in a CZcams comment section (look at his other responses). Hard as it is, best is to ignore trolls. The hard part is that the entire group of viewers need to be aware. But the trolls just crave attention.
Thank you. I learn a lot from your videos
this video is amazing. I really enjoy these procurement topics!
Great example with the Gorch Fock. That thing was sailing around with lads on it from BRNC bloody 18 years ago when I was at Dartmouth myself. And what did Britain do when it needed a new sail training ship for its sea cadets? Bought a new TS ROYALIST from a shipyard in Spain for a hair under £5m. Approximately €145M cheaper than the German approach.
Although I do think we could do with more frigates and destroyers. Maybe having the bulk be Type-31's and then 6-12 more capable destroyers around 10-12K tonnes.
But the real problem in the royal navy I think might be a lack of shipyards and industrial capacity. Also the government being pennypinching bastards (not a new thing).
Yeah, true. But you forget the the tradition of the new German Army is started 1955, and the Gorch Fock is a big part of the tradition. Would it be OK for you to let the HMS Victory rot? The pricing is another story, it is a crime story, because the owners of the warf who got the job did some „creative invoicing“!
@@JoergSi HMS Victory is not in active service, not a fair comparison.
@@Cam-sl8ve HMS Victory is famously still in commission though.
@@markr2616 Haha yes that is technically true
There ist no way for you to say something negativ about the Bundeswehr that has not already be said by someone in Germany. You are good on that front
That was a huge issue in recent years. Like many others, I realised in 2014 that we were going to have a massive problem, although I didn’t think it would get to where it is now so quickly ( I always warned about facing Chinese rockets in Moscow ) and politicians had understood that to fix the Bundeswehr without public backing in a time of near constant large crisis in Europe was basically asking for trouble and as a result, nothing happened until today.
This is absolutely fascinating, I had no idea of the challenges facing German procurement. Thanks for all the work you put into presenting such a well-researched explanation!
As a German I can honestly say that this is the best breakdown of this topic that I have come across, thank you very much. I would identify myself as center left politically speaking and even for me Germanys hangups with the role of our military in our society and foreign policy have been a source of frustration for me for years
become centre right , step in the "RIGHT" direction
@@sfab69 lol sure thing kiddo
@@timowagner1329 Get your balls out and start supporting UKRAINE Kiddo x
The German Government persecutes conservatism in the way people most of the world outside of Europe think of what a conservative outlook is. Germany is the birthplace of social democracy and Karl Marx and two World Wars. German politics basically started this war. The EU chose to become dependent on Russian fossil fuels, Germany chose to push Nord Stream II and pushed Democrats in the USA to unblock the pipeline, and Europe ignored all warnings that the Paris Climate Accords and Leftist radicalism would start a conflict with Russia. Germany gets no credit and deserves no credit for helping Ukraine. Germany and the EU victimized Ukraine, victimized themselves, and North America got dragged into another European war created by inability of Europe to defend itself, stop political extremism, or stop fighting each other. Watching European CZcamsrs trying to constantly defend Germany for starting the War in Ukraine is horrible to watch. Conflict and instability is what happens when countries like Germany are constantly meddling in the politics of other nations trying 'to be a leader'. The USA needs to pull out of NATO and the UN because of this sick crap because the USA keeps getting pushed into these globalist wars that only weaken the American economy. Europeans should be forced to fight the wars they start.
Nothing a German responds to makes any sense in reality
Great video on a very difficult subject. Keep up the great work.
Perun, as always, fantastic and educational video. Thank you!
Don't worry about Discord and all that, it's just another hassle and time sink. Time that is much better spent on research and production. Just keep doing what you're doing mate, your content is absolutely top quality as it is. This is the best channel I've found in years. All the best for the future!
To add to all the "As a German...":
As an officer of the German Army, first of all: The whole G36 debate is a joke. The soldiers like the weapon, I have used different versions and it is absolutely reliable, easy to use and yes, it does shoot exactly where you aim. This may sum it up: When they wanted to replace the weapon after that big, ridiculous shitstorm, they actually couldn't find anything better on the market, so H&K just pimped their latest version and guess what? They'll buy that one.
Secondly, the Bundeswehr isn't really broadly disliked in public. The media love to tear it apart, and the comments in social media are accordingly spiteful. When I sometimes wear my uniform in public or if I mention my profession in a conversation, the reaction is usually positive. Nothing compared to the US, but still not nearly as negative as you might think when you read the newspaper. However I do admit that I avoid Hamburgs and Berlins darkest (and leftest) corners ;)
Last but not least, the bureaucracy is insane. Even the people doing the paperwork think so, but they say they just can't help it, because obviously they have to follow all the rgulations. It drives me mad, and it's the main reason why I'm not going to stay in the Army until my pension.
dont bring left vs right into this. or what looks like it might be racism either.
@@xBINARYGODx you dont seem to understand, right and left is not the same here in germany as in the us.
Indeed. It's rather actually rather an expression of the the Germany joy in ridiculing its own military and particularly procurement and it adds to the misery: The public is so fond of making fun of the Bundeswehr that every accusation to a procurement project is instantaneously believed. Procurement is not only difficult for the reasons that Perun states, it can only ever fail even if things do go right, nobody will believe because of Germany's anti-militarism.
Thank you for sharing dude love Germany 🇩🇪 from Canada
Geans.werw the good guys in WW2 anyway. They would absolute destroy Russia in conventional war.
Sound quality is great. Thanks for the deep-dive.
Thank you. This video was quite enjoyable and educational for me.
As an example of the German's questionable purchasing methods: I work at a company that entered a bid for night vision equipment.The way this would normally go is that each bidder would submit a couple of demo units, which the customer would put through trials, and figure out which one is most suitable according to a predetermined list of requirements. Not ze germans though! They made it a purely paperwork excercise, awarding the bid without even seeing any product. Maybe this was their way of bypassing some of their own beaurcracy, but I just found it kind of silly.
Tbf I wonder if that was an emergency purchase because people in Afghanistan&Co really needed that shit. If the product is documented to work well enough elsewhere, then thats probably enough.
But then again, maybe thats normal procedure.
Just so you know, from now on I'm gonna use a next-gen mutation, "bearocracy", for the Ruzzians' military bureaucracy.
thsoe evil germans
Brilliant hook, and I wouldn't mind a video about the French military.
Agreed. Whilst as a Brit I hate to say anything nice about the French, historically they've been the big boy of Mainland Europe, not Germany.
The French military at least still fights actual conflicts, like in their former colonies in West Africa (which they still kind of sort of control through soft power, although they're technically independent).
@@CantusTropus Yeah, the French left the Germans alone in Mali. And they left Libya to whatever Turkey and Russia want to achieve there. 😆
Yeah the french military has gotten a lot of crap but we all know the french froiegn legion is one of the best fighting forces in the world.
@@Kraken160th The French foreign legion? The one that was dominated by German soldiers and lost in Vietnam before the Americans came? Turns out, all those stupid elite soldiers die all the same to artillery fire.
Love the topics you pick, adore the research and information that even leading magazines on foreign policy do not provide. You are exceptional, keep it up. btw i listen at 2x which is a god send for long videos
Thanks again Perun. We follow because your analysis is the boom.
As a German and xth generation military: 90% of this video is absolutely correct. Where you are only part right is the Gorch Fock. Yes, they screwed everything up, but saying it is just an insignificant training ship is like saying that the HMS Victory is just a sailing ship.
It is the symbol of it‘s home town, every naval officer has trained on this ship, it is a diplomatic vessel that regularly travels the world - it is a fucking Statue of Liberty for the German navy. And one reason for the abhorrent costs is the lost knowledge on how to build/ repair these old ships. You should have used the helmet example. Otherwise, great video.
Thanks for that added context. It does make what they spent on that ship seem less insane.
All of this information tells me that it really, REALLY needs to have a separate budget allocation
I burst out laughing, thank you for posting!
Now ,, ahem,, what is the annual budget to maintain the said Statue ? Anyone ?
@@als1023 6 millions dollars for the statue and the whole island, France has a 20 millions euro per year renovation plan for the Eiffel tower that will last 15 years. But those 2 monument are attracting tourist so they are in some way directly and indirectly offestting these cost the eiffeil tower in 2021 its worst year registered a net benefice of 2.9 millions of euro in 2021, 10.9 millions of euro in 2020 for comparison.
My question is, why did the Germany navy need a sailing ship for training at all? I think 99% of modern navy vessels are engine powered instead of wind
Here is the main problem with the German Bundeswehr:
Imagine having a bank account that has a lot of money in it (let's just say 100 billion €), but every year the money vanishes, and you get new money a little bit later, but you are not sure how much you will get.
1. It makes it hard to spend the 100 billion in your bank because you can't be sure you will get another 100 billion after it vanishes, and you couldn't spend it all in time.
2. It is very hard to even spend 100 billion in one year, even if you start on day one, which is usually not the case, especially with all the rules and regulations in place to spend that money, and with competitors suing each other along the way.
3. After a year, the money you didn't spend goes back to where it came from, but it is still recorded as money spend on you, even though half the money went back, so in the end people think you spend more than you actually did, because you couldn't spend it all in a year.
Also, there is a problem with corruption, just a different kind of corruption. Because the contracts are so complicated, some suing is actually justified, because bureaucrats might actually have taken some bribes to write certain things into the contracts, like "this tank needs a red button on top of the wheel", which only one tank has. So it is essentially a contract written that only one product can fit that contract because some company paid money to have it written that way, which undercuts the whole competition idea in the first place.
So in conclusion, 100 billion is great, but we have to see how much of the money gets actually spend and not just silently goes back into the bank of the German government, because the government is always happy to get some money back, and nobody needs to tell the media or the public that the military didn't actually cost 100 billion but only 20 billion because the money couldn't be spend in time.
That’s actually a really good point, I’d never thought about what happens to the part of a military budget that doesn’t get spent; I guess I always assumed that it got added to some kind of rainy day fund.
Sorry, you are completely wrong. In case you are talking about the 100 billion Sondervermögen: It is not part of the normal budget and doesn't need to be spend in a single year. The yearly budget is 50 billion on top of the 100 billion, and it has been raising every year. In fact it has been raising since 2006 and was stable before that. So this is not an issue for the Bundeswehr at all, they know very well how much money will be there next year and can even expect to have slightly more than before. Considering current political trends, this will remain so for the next decades.
And your claim that "no one needs to tell the media or the public that the military didn't actually cost 100 billion but only 20 billion" is absolutely ludicrous and full on conspiracy theory shit. The budget is completely open to the public. Not only would that definitely be recorded (every single cent gets recorded in Germany), it would also mean that the budget would be reduced next year, because apparently the military doesn't need more. No German Kanzler would ever give money to the military they know is not getting spend and they could spend on lowering taxes or social programs instead. Because that is how they get votes, not by giving money to the military.
thats called a budget, and every government agency in the world runs like that. Its not an excuse
In Poland for a long time we had a thing that when funds for MoD were unspent by the end of the year they got tosed into the pile of whole budget for all ministries (so you could not save unspent funds from previous years and 5 years later have funds for fighter jet procurement etc/ it would be usefull). So every year you got X billion dollars for MoD and you divided it for wages, upkeep of inventory and bases, training etc. and you planned buying of new stuff for a few years into the future and hoped that that year tax revenue will be good and military modernisation projects will get enough funds to buy the jets/ heli gunships/ APCs, ships. And remember that governments can and usually change every 4 years (a second term for a party/ alliance is rare) so projects from the previous gov may be scrapped and a new one is started, So no new helis for you, well buy SP artyllery instead. Now i think they changed it so unspent funds go to an account and accumulate and you take the funds from it when a new replacement project starts.
Yeah, it sure seems that the politicians and bureaucrats are almost solely to blame for the ineffectiveness of the Armed Services. Maybe if they would stop pouring money into their disastrous liberal immigration policy, they could actually uphold their promise of funding. The absolute dependence on NATO and the United States is a recipe for disaster, that's eventually going to catch up to them sooner than later.
Very good video, I did not think I would be that interested in this topic and you enthralled me.
Hi Perun, once more thanks for such fascinating videos. They have certainly been enlightening and have broadend my knowledge with your fascinating insight.
As a german this video raised my confinence in your videos even further. From austrailia you managed to put your finger right on the zhings we think is the problem. Good Job
Is "zhings" meant ironically or a typo? 😉
@@falkjanen5050 on a german keyboard, the z is right next to the t.
@@shackleton12 I know, but "zhings" also sounds like a heavy German accent.
@@falkjanen5050 yeah i assumed it was a brilliant joke
@@fredburns6846 A brilliant joke by the keyboard manufacturers, maybe?
I might be exaggerating to say I never thought I'd find myself engrossed in an hour-and-seventeen minute analysis of modern German military procurement bureaucracy, but having come to look forward to every new upload from you, I thoroughly enjoyed the time. Keep up the great work!
As a German I am disgusted. On the one hand we are known as hard working, efficient people who start work punctually ealry in the morning, and don't do siestas, on the other hand this is our reality too - Beaurocracy
i know but same here "engrossed in an hour-and-seventeen minute analysis of modern German military procurement bureaucracy"
We don't need advice for militatry purchasing - from Australia! You are kiding! I looked up the Australian Army. They don't even have IFV's - so you don't have any experience even in buying an IFV. We produce this staff on a world beating level. You drive around with old american M113 from 1960. They are far to slow to attack with your M1A1 (they are also old). How do you attack an enemy with infantry? Riding on Kangaroos? We have the worlds best IFV - the PUMA. And we also produce the worlds second best - the Lynx - for nations who can't afford the puma. When you wait 20 years may be you can afford some of them? You only have towed Artillery in Australia - no self propelled guns! We have self-propelled guns since the 1940s. We gave up towed artillery in 1996 when PZH 2000 was introduced. You intend to buy the Boxer (produced in Germany) - we still have them for more then 10 years. So you have no Artillery, no Infantry Fighting vehicle (IFV) not to mention other special purpose Tanks like Bridge Layer, Mine Sweeper, Flakpanzer, Airborne-Tank, etc. This is not an Army in Australia it is a museum with serious gaps. You should better focus on Australia. Your advise is not needed, you should learn from Germany.
@@minimax9452 Wow. First take the stick out of your butt, cool down and pay attention. Yeah you have great weapon systems. Worlds best? I am not sure about that. But the video is about the process and bottlenecks you(I assume you are German) are facing. Everyone has problems that need streamlining. So stuff it back in your pants and list out the points of contention. If you have sources also to sink this video it would be great.
Was it that long?
Awesome video, fantastic presentation. Far better then all the Nat Security, IR, Defense Conference circuit..
Fascinating deep dive! Thanks Perun
I'm American but have relatives in Western Europe. I think all the NATO countries have the same problem. They haven't had a true near peer enemy since the cold war and lack of fear has led to complacency
Military pundits told us the middle east skirmishes would keep us combat proficient but as both we in Iraq and Russia in Syria learned bombing the hell out of low tech adversaries doesn't make you ready to fight someone with air denial weapons and anti armor technology.
I was in Europe in the 1980's. We practiced REFORGERS and believed the red army soldiers were 10 feet tall. It scared every Western European to think Russian occupation could be three weeks away. It was patriotic to serve (even conscripts) Now Ukraine has revived those memories but time has softened the West. It's why I fear nuclear exchange now more than in the 80's.
Germany, most Americans stand with you. Despite many people becoming more isolationist I think you and Poland (and partially the Baltic states) are the buffer between Putin's evil and western democracies. Please understand the absolute need for you to stand up and be the rock we need you to be. Peace through strength.
People outside of Germany really don't grasp how deep the pacifism psychosis goes in the German population.
They think the Germans are secretly plotting to take over Europe and build a 4th Reich or something like that, but in reality the fools really do believe in all the globalist kumbaya tree hugging nonsense and they are so obsessed with the EU because they really think nation states are a archaic, outdated concept and we will all just hold hands and dance around trees soon. They want to be "Europeans" because they don't want to be Germans anymore. Germany is not a nation state anymore, it is just a country sized business park.
Have you seen the video of Angela Merkel ripping a German flag out of one of her supporter's hands and throwing it on the ground?
That is the actual attitude "the elites" have towards their country.
If you understand that fact, then everything the German government is doing starts making sense. Asking Germany why it isn't doing more to help Ukraine is like walking into a IKEA store and asking the store manager what he is doing to help Ukraine.
If Germany were to be invaded and occupied by a foreign force today, most Germans would not fight and not even protest and if you would ask them why, they would ask back: "What does that have to do with me?"
What is it to them who they pay those 60+% taxes to? It isn't as if their government would ever do anything to help them or represent them and their wishes anyways.
The German government has been behaving like a occupying force within their own country and Germans have been trained to accept that for generations. When in 2015 those mass harassment and rapes happened, the first thing the government did was to outlaw pepper spray and hire more agents to keep an eye on "right wing organisations". That is how much the German state cares about and does for the native population.
What is the difference between being ruled by foreign invaders or by some nominally "German" politicians who were trained by "The Transatlantic Bridge" and other such shadowy, globalist organisations and take orders from the Neocons and who refuse to defend the borders or deport people?
Considering that, it really does become questionable what the point of having a military is, even from a pragmatist, not even pacifist perspective.
When you don't have a country and you don't have a nation, what do you need a military for? It would only be somebody else's auxiliary troops anyways.
Foreigners don't understand that and why would they?
But I do think Germans are just ahead of the curve there. Americans may very well wake up to find themselves in the same situation.
Who protects your borders? Who cares what the American people want? Who's music are your politicians dancing to? When did your military last fight for your interests and protection?
Isn't the only thing that currently keeps Americans cheer for and respect their military just patriotic inertia from a bygone era?
Ever since the end of WW2 the German military was basically seen as a necessary evil and eventually as a unnecessary one. That has changed a little since the Ukraine invasion, but not to the point where people would actually encourage their kids to become soldiers. That career ranks about on the same level as "trash collector" when it comes to a ranking of jobs and careers by desirability and how proud you can be of it.
When a young man says he wants to become a soldier, most people will act as if there is something wrong with him, as if he just told them his dream job is being the guy who euthanizes pets at the animal shelter, or something like that.
Especially since the end of the Cold War, the military has been seen as sort of a refuge and giant day care facility for weirdos, Neonazis and low IQ knuckleheads who didn't have what it takes to make it in the real world.
It is just not something that is on the radar for most young people.
My point being that I don't think Perun got it right in regards to the recruitment problems the Bundeswehr has. It isn't just a lack of spare parts and competition from the business world, which keeps people from joining the military.
And non-Americans should understand when we talk about isolationism, there is one camp for whom that means wanting less involvements like Iraq, less hegemony, more cooperation with allies like Poland replacing us as the backbone of Europe, basically the attitude Europe wished America had 20 years ago.
For the other camp, isolationism is whatever they want it to mean, but basically it’s about abandoning all responsibilities and allies. They still want to do whatever they feel like in the world like it’s their god given right and they’re the invincible king of nations, while consequences or mistakes are just made up jokes by their opponents. It’s unstable nonsense but something our allies need to understand.
As an American, myself, I honestly worry about our continued support for Ukraine if Republicans take Congress this fall - and _especially_ if they take the presidency in 2024 (although I hope the war isn't still grinding on then!).
There's a certain racist segment of our population which admires Putin as a right-wing, Christian, _white_ authoritarian disliked by liberals (which makes him basically their Great White Hope).
And they're still angry at Ukraine - Zelenskyy in particular - for resisting Donald Trump's extortion attempt. I mean, Zelenskyy had nothing to do with Trump's impeachment. He was just the _target_ of the extortion attempt. But these people aren't going to blame Trump for anything.
Right now, even Fox News has scaled back their support for Putin, because Ukraine is just too popular. But that's only because it's politically problematic right now. And there's a lot a Republican Congress could do to hit the brakes.
UK and France have pretty fantastic military's so not sure your comment applies to them. I know Finland are new to NATO so don't count in your comment, but they punch way way way above their weight. Probably more than anyone in the world considering their size (well Israel is similar I guess).
I just have to say, at the beginning of this "strategic operation", I had an underlying fear that if Ukraine falls, that would escalate tensions through the roof in Europe and likewise, Nuclear tensions.
As the months went by, the fear lessened but was still there due to the fact that most News headlines and YT videos shot for grandiose dramatic effect instead of focusing on what info we had coming in. Then I found one of your videos. I was hooked.
Your focus on presenting the info coming out of the conflict instead of exaggerating it out of proportion ("Putin puts nuclear forces on high alert, Why "X" tank will change the war, etc) is fantastic and very much appreciated. The cherry on top is that you speak Aussie.
Eventually I made it through everyone of your presentations and I find my fears at ease. Now, I'm just eager to learn more. For that, I want to express my appreciation for your content.
Keep going Perun! I'll be tuning in.
So true, bringing sense to the overall nonsense 🤣
Same, I am hooked as well
Fantastic presentation. Thank you 😊
I found this to be one of your most interesting presentations. Bravo!
I never thought I would ever enjoy a video on German military procurement, but I did. You tube in general and you specifically are fantastic in explaining how the world works
Same
Nah, this channel is good, YT OTOH will tell you the world is flat and the laws of thermodynamics are wrong.
To make one thing very clear: The delivery of Gepard AAA tanks to UA is an industry deal. Not a governmental one! The Bundeswehr does not own a single Gepard (no more). Hence the ammo issue. The German Government never promised the delivery and only gave export permission. Many self proclaimed „experts“ miss that crucial fact.
In addition go that Germany had only 59'000 shots of ammunition for the Gepards. Switzerland as a neutral country didn't want to sell & produce more ammo for it because it would be used in a war.
What about the Dutch, don’t they use Gepard?
@@etuanno the should stop making chocolate and clocks too as sthose Will be used in a war as well
@@nunyabidness3075 There are several nations still having Gepard and it’s derivatives in their inventory. Including Romania e. g. But I don’t have any info on its operational readiness
@@der_Emanuel I find it interesting there isn’t a lot of available ammo for those guns.
Sound quality has in fact improved greatly. Thanks for that, and thanks for your outstanding, thoughtful analysis.
Great work. Very interesting. Thank you
German military lifehack:
"You don't need a weapon that shoots straight, if you never reach the battlefield, because your helos also don't fly."
Perfect system, unless you bring other militaries in, that have actually working equipment. If they give you a ride, you are screwed.
That seems to be the lifehack many central European states have bought since the end of the cold war. Absence of the threat of the USSR and NATO membership are a combination that easily leads to complacency. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine the priorities seem to have turned on their head.
Tbf the NH90 is probably not the german fault >_>
Tigers seem to get better after a rought start, but its not like theres much alternatives either (besides american cold war stuff).
How did this happen?
How Germany went from : I will create tanks as if I am just dropping them from thin air
To :
We cannot repair a sail ship.
30 Years of missmanagment and (high level) corruption
@@13deadghosts after listening to Perun I do not think that corruption is the problem, in fact they spend so much time to make sure that there is no corruption that they somehow managed to hit anti-corruption which is (at least for me) a new state of being in which you spend so much money to make sure that there is no corruption that it would actually make economical sense to be somewhat corrupted.
Actually Germany was able to repair that sail ship.
It "only" took 6 years, cost 135 million € (instead of 10 million as estimated) and bankrupted a ship yard.
Of course one can argue that for the money spent Germany could have bought two new ships, but tradition is really important...
For a training vessel....
Can't imagine a frigate or destroyer.....
How is it you prefer doing business with slave owning communist Chinese than Russians? You guys still hate Russia THAT much?
77 minutes and 55 seconds of pure gold! Never have I been so entertained by facts based analysis of military budgeting, bureaucracy and procurement. This is in fact better than... most anything?
Your presentations are normally informative and well-researced; this one is absolutely fabulous!
I did note an improvement in sound quality early on - thank you for continuing to tweak.
I'm betting - if you compared YOUR YT analytics to others who produce videos of an hour or more - that you have a much higher percentage of viewers who stay till the end? Your material is often rivetting and I don't notice the time slide by. Thanks.
One of the best analysis I've seen on the state of Procurement in the Bundeswehr, and one that makes great points about how and why the problems in this sector so drastically devalue what the German state gets out of its investment into the Bundeswehr compared to France or Poland. Hits all the sore spots and provides both a grim outlook (that I, as a German, feel is depressingly realistic) and a much more optimistic can-do-ish outlook. We'll see how far things can be pushed in that direction, but you are very right that Germany invests as much as France into its armed forces, but where France gets a nuclear-capable, intervention-ready force with independent world-wide projection capability, what Germany gets in return is put to shame by Poland's forces, who invest a fraction as much money.
I'd hope a good number of MdB (members of the Bundestag) get to see this analysis or one like it and take it to heart.
as a German with (including high ranked) friends in the Bundeswehr and the Bundesamt, according to my information you are mostly right. The same problems I heard over and over again. Sad but true.
I disagree with the G36 issue. It is all in all a good rifle. I am a passionate shooter, hunter and gun owner. The circumstances causing the G36 stops shooting straight, every other assault rifle would also stop shooting straight. First a assault rifle is no machine gun, and the problem was mainly with the aged optics in the polymer carrying handle. A problem easy to fix with a picatinny rail and better training.
From my point of view, the whole affair was made up, to distract the public from much severe shortcomings in the Bundeswehr.
Everything I have read and heard supports what you say. It was a smokescreen, and one that backfired since they will now have to purchase the HK416.
The funny thing is that the replacement rifle, the HK 416 A8 was to heavy for the BW so they demanded that the barrel to be thinner, resulting in the same problem that the G36 has.
Cause the rifle has to be cheap, super accurate and light weight.
EDIT: The BW also demanded a bayonett mount even though the BW doesnt use bayonetts
i also Heard that from a lot of ex Bundeswehr people
The G36 is the sweetest thing since the MP5.
I'd go as far as saying this was to distract from the complete and utter incompetence of the Defense Minister at the time, who currently is in the highest Office of the EU. Oh joy.
Fantastic video, my dude! Great stuff, this is what seperates you from everybody else.
Great vid, Two thumbs up!
As a german I would feel gravely insulted, if you would not mock the Bundeswehr. It's tradition after all.
Jokes aside: all in all I think the state of the Bundeswehr atleast shows that we as a people understood the lessons of past wars and devalued the army as a political tool. So besides all the horrific embarrassments it at least points to a substantial anti-war and anti-militarism sentiment in my country.
But holy cow, did it have to be so expensive?
Germany dosnt do things by half i suppose
Kind wir sind einer der wirtschaftlichen stärksten Länder der Welt 100 Mrd is nichts und ein vernünftiges Militär is teurer
wir brauchen schon 30 Mrd für Munition um einige Monate einen richtigen Konflikt zu führen
@@einfachmarvin8793 ja klar. Ich meinte auch eher das schlechte Verhältnis aus den Ausgaben und dem Zustand der Armee. Viel Geld für wenig Resultate.
"Anti-militarism" in this context, i.e. braindead pacifism, is not a good thing. Not that militarism is, mind, but we are not speaking about just "not militarism" here, after all - all the Ostermarsch Idiots and their unreflected sentiment are morally bankrupt. Pure Wohlstandsverwehrlosung. If faced with unbridled expansionist fascism, you do need a military culture to counter it - if need be weapon in hand, because the fascists certainly are. Pacifism is just cowardice and abdication of responsibility.
It would be cheaper to disband military and all equipment and put 10% of that military budget to Poland to protect Germans :D
Quality intro, fantastic bait and switch.
Incredibly insightful video! Loved the fact that you took your time and didn’t make it into a 9 minute klick bait titled “Germany needs dishwasher but gets sued if they buy one, you won’t believe what happened next!!”. In all seriousness though, would love to hear this type of presentation on further European countries, especially Sweden who I get a feeling might have a few key factors in common with Germany concerning these issues.
Keep up the great work!
great video mate. And ... respect at making burocratic procurement even funny.
Did my mandatory service in 2001/2002. I distinctly remember talking one of the Feldwebel in the Inst. (Maintenance Company) of my Unit, I was working in S3 at the time, which mainly consisted of ordering busses for activities and not much else at that time. We had a vehicle park of 200 Trucks at the base, and of those trucks a whooping 2 were functional, all others were used for spare parts. My impression since then has been, following politics, that the Bundeswehr was systematically sabotaged by the Political Parties. It seemed like they never wanted a functional Military.
Cannibalizing hard broke equipment to keep other equipment functional is normal, especially for older equipment. The US Air Force does it all the time; F-16 units with older 16's often end up doing it because certain components are 1980's analog and not really made anymore. Better one shop queen than 5 broke jets.
However, a 1% readiness figure is NOT normal. If a Maintenance Group had anything less than an 70% MC (mission capable) rate for lack of parts or no real reason someone would be getting talked at very sharply by their commander. It's mind boggling how that's tolerated in the Bundeswher.
@@DangerB0ne That was 20 years ago, so maybe it got better, but at that time i think it was mainly because there was almost zero investment in spare parts from the budget. Its strange in retrospect. We had no ammo to go shooting more than twice, no training hand grenades, no training Panzerfaust 3. The Obsacle course was rotting and falling apart. The Barracks were taken over from the NVA and were built in the 60ies, but recently renovated at least. We still were issued G3s, most of which were built in the 60ies according to the stamps on the parts . Though i remember i got to hold a G36 once, and it felt like a Toy compared to the G3 because it was so light. On Manuever the Officers asked around for someone who knows english so they can show off the G36 to the American Officers... Was kind of funny tbh.
@avarchillion Either Kristallnacht 2 : Electoral Boogaloo, or the German public starting to take seriously their role as the electorate of a modern democracy, and informing themselves on the actual facts of matters central to the security of the country they live in
An hour and seventeen minutes on German procurement history and problems. I loved it.
Yep made it to the end, as a fellow Aussie I'm proud of what you do, Awesome work.
Informative. Authoritative. Again. Thanx.
Believe me, no German will be offended by you talking smack about the Bundeswehr, we're just trying to get out of decades of mismanagement, privatization and most likely corruption in many sectors and that includes but isn't limited to the military.
I don't think corruption is the problem. It's more like there are mountains of paperwork used to prevent corruption that are so huge that it's probably more expensive than just being corrupt.
Why do you people always mistake simple neglect for corruption?
@@Arcaryon Why do you people always mistake deliberate downsizing for neglect?
@@patrickstar5136 Corruption IS the problem. But it's not in the military directly, as the military has no power, it's in the high levels of politics and the private sector. Bribes are the norm when lucrative deals are signed. Politicians would rather cancel a project and bankrupt a company, if it competes against their preferred company.
It's the reason things like the Berlin airport and many other projects turned into such clusterf***s.
High levels of corruption , combined with bloated bureaucracy are the causes that make Germany lose its competitiveness.
@@jansix4287 Because downsizing due to public neglect is not corruption.
Getting rich on incompetency is not like getting rich on corruption.
It's not that this video is too long. Its that your others tend to be too short! Enjoying them all greatly!
Great video, really enjoyed it.
A couple of things struck me. James Holland’s studies of WW2 point out that even back then, the Wehrmacht had some of these issues. Over engineering and complication and huge time overruns on major weapons like Panzer 5 Panther, poor choices on 4 engine bombers, Messerschmidt doing whatever they wanted …. Even the uniforms were ludicrously complex at a time the country was sorely short of labour and resources.
Also, political element is huge.
Japan which has the same pacifist outlook and constraints has got on and built impressive weapons platforms, simply by giving them different names. Like the aircraft carriers they call “helicopter destroyers”. But Germany is too honest for that, and it’s no bad thing.
Anyone interested in James Holland's thoughts would be well advised to listen to the splendid WW II podcast he collaborates on called 'We have ways of making you talk' with Al Murray
Excellent overview of the “procurement problem”. Well done.
As a German I can say, that your analysis is pretty much on point. There is also the factor of costly developments from European companies instead of buying existing stuff, which you touched only briefly. But all in all very on point.
There’s nothing inherently wrong with own developments. I’d even say having your own military industry is strategically valuable. It’s just that those issues with long term planning are especially crippling to long development projects, which are known to stretch and go over budget anyway.