Bayesian Statistics with Hannah Fry
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- čas přidán 28. 03. 2019
- You can buy Hannah's great book Hello World from loads of places: www.hannahfry.co.uk/helloworld
Including signed copies on Maths Gear!
mathsgear.co.uk/collections/b...
My book Humble Pi is available signed on Maths Gear, as well as un-signed from all the usuals.
SIGNED mathsgear.co.uk/collections/b...
UNSIGNED www.amazon.co.uk/Humble-Pi-Co...
The history of Thomas Bayes.
www-history.mcs.st-andrews.ac....
All about the theorem named after them.
mathworld.wolfram.com/BayesThe...
Huge thanks to the current residents of the house who tolerated us running around and invading their weekend. All in exchange for two awesome maths books.
Thanks to Ben Sparks for crafting the Geogebra animation of the surface.
CORRECTIONS
- Nothing yet unless you count a slight continuity error with the door in the background. Let me know if you spot anything more serious than that!
Thanks to my Patreon supports who do support these videos and make them possible. Here is a random subset:
Christian Schadewald
Thomas Hodnemyr
Richard Fourie
Maksym Borodin
Laura Dale
Support my channel and I can make more maths videos:
/ standupmaths
Music by Howard Carter
Filming and editing by Trunkman Productions trunkman.co.uk/
Sound production by Peter Doggart
Design by Simon Wright
Runner and assistance by Max
MATT PARKER: Stand-up Mathematician
Website: standupmaths.com/
NEW BOOKk: wwwh.umble-pi.com
Nerdy maths toys: mathsgear.co.uk/ - Zábava
"Everytime you're throwing the ball you're getting more information about... " where the table isn't
Ah, the Parker Throw...
Parkesian statistics
I don't know why they didn't just play Battle Ships... its based on Bayesian reasoning!
"where the table isn't"
It's a Parker Square table…
@@ekinteko I believe you and your comment to be genius!!! 😱
I believe this based on my never having thought of this example nor have I seen anyone else explain bayesian statistics with such a sublimely simple example. I, and the others, all use really stupidly complicated examples.
Note, I'm not saying I'm a genius. But I'd bet, at least one of the other mathematicians I've referred to regarding Bayesian statistics, might be.
BUT @Kangal, like Rev. Bayes (who I believe to be a believer) and Pascal (who I'd wager was also a believer), I believe you and your comment to be genius.
If there wasn't a virus going around I'd kiss you. 😘
Hannah is getting plenty of practice as to being a mum of a toddler here.
This might be the best comment I've ever seen on CZcams
Ahahahaha 😂😂😂 this REALLY got me, for some reason!
I've watched this video several times and I can't believe I've never noticed this comment. And when I did, I burst out laughing and nearly knocked over my cup of coffee onto a mum with a toddler on the next table (I'm in a cafe)? What's the statistical probability of that (i.e. there being a mum and the toddler while reading a comment about a mum and a [metaphorical? toddler)?
“Its okay, we can do it again 😃”
“How good are you at catch” “I understand the theory” 😂😂😂
My history in experimental physics 😂😂
- "What's the chance you find me here?"
- "It's the first time I've found you here, so I don't know"
I'll use that joke, with your permission...
It’s all yours!
That's a very frequentist approach to chances. After his conversion to Bayesianism, Matt wouldn't have said that ;)
well, we know that it's more than 0%
Chance is about predicting so in fact we actually know that the chance of them meeting is 100% since it happened, therefore has become a fact.
"It's the first time I come here" would have been funnier. :D
Matt Parker: Making a pregnant woman repeatedly bend down and pick up his throws, while he is sitting in a comfy chair :P
I didn't notice she was pregnant
Parker chivalry
@@Peter_1986 You mean like being near a staircase?
I didn't even realize she was pregnant before your comment. Now that I looked again it's so obvious...
@@Peter_1986 I don't think they were saying it was dangerous, just a little rude since it's harder to bend down when you're pregnant :)
Schrödinger, Descartes and Bayes walk into a bar. The bartender asks: "Would you gentlemen like a drink?"
Schrödinger says: "Yes and no."
Descartes says: "I don't think so."
Bayes says: "I'm not certain."
didn't get the descartes part
"I doubt therefore I think, I think therefore I am" - René Descartes
Bayes: "Ask us again..."
Descartes: "I think not" *disappears*
I'm going to use this one
"I was a certaintist...I don't know."
You don't sound like a very good certaintist.
He was certain that he didn't know!
I know that I was a certainist, but now I'm fairly confident that I am a bayesianist.
I used to be indecisive, but now I'm not so sure.
Bayesian sounds like a colour. I'm not sure what colour.
@@RaglansElectricBaboon Beige-ian.
"Embrace uncertainty, but quantify it" is my new motto.
This has the same energy as "Take it easy, but take it"
Some Parker throws right there
In fairness to him he did give it a go, even though he wasn't entirely successful
Clearly it was a Parker Square Table. 🙂
Can I just have Hannah and Matt explain everything to me? The sheer enthusiasm for math on display is infectious.
"It's all about that Bayes" - Thomas Bayes probably.
There's a paper titled "Drum'n'Bayes". They use Bayesian networks for pattern recognition on music.
"Its all about that Bayes - no table" :-)
I think, you guys may be a little bit biased.
"And thanks to the owners of the house! Turns out, one of them's a mathematician..."
This is the least surprising statement I think I've ever heard in my life.
6:03 One mathematician tells another mathematician to be more random.
The irony here is delightful.
Micah Long why ironic?
@@user-ky6vw5up9m
I think because you can be either random or not. It's hard to be "more" random. You could increase the sample size of course or the step size, but random is random, it doesn't become more random.
4:10 Hannah's exasperated declaration of "Try" should cause you lot to call and thank your mothers.
I love your profile picture and username! I wish more people were familiar with Berzerk.
Hanna Try
I wish Hannah Fry had a CZcams channel
At least we've got "The Curious Cases of Rutherford and Fry"
@@ViatorRex Oh! Is that this Rutherford?!
6:00 "you're actually remarkably consistent"
"Consistency is only a virtue if you're not a screw-up" -Grant Sanderson
Can always count on Grant to come up with the goods!
When I was in high school statistics we were talking about Bayesian probability, and one of my classmates asked "Isn't that a black asian?", and my teacher said "no I believe that's blasian" and I will always remember that interaction.
I've never seen Bayes' fundamental insight so amusingly explained. Nor so clearly. Nicely done! (Also: congratulations to Dr Fry on the forthcoming addition to your family!)
I have heard that throwing the ball on the table example before, but actually seeing it being done makes it so much clearer to understand!
Have you read the paper they are referring to? This experiment is discussed in Section II. It's one of those things you have to draw on paper or do in real life to get a proper feel for what Bayes' saying. What I found really interesting is that Rice's motivation for submitting this paper was for it to be used as proof of Intelligent Design. 😮
@@warrenyazzie9975 Actually I'd say that Bayesian view excludes gods alltogether. There's no confidentialy, that you can measure, about exitence of a physical god. There is good examples of a methaphorical gods exitance though. Look for example all churches and temples and what not and ask if the builders had a god in their mind when they did those. But a mtphorical god is like justice: it exists only in deeds and thoughts of men.
Anybody else find Hannahs voice soothing? Intelligent and beautiful but the voice gets me everytime.
Literally bought Hello World an hour before this video was released. Now I have 2 great maths books to get absorbed into. Maths books are like buses, you wait years for a good one and then 2 turn up almost at once!
Do you think Hannah's book is good for actual computer programmers? I would read it if it is more about the ethics and psychology relating to algorithms, but if half of it is trying to explain algorithms in laymen's terms I would not enjoy it.
quote of the century
@@karlkastor It's definitely more about the ethics of the algorithms used in our modern world, and she rarely explains what the algorithms are and how they work (only enough to potentially peak interest so you go off and Google it). It's not a book to read if you want answers and definitions, it's a book that presents questions you didn't even think about asking in the first place. It's terrifying and hilarious, but mostly terrifying; I highly recommend it :).
Parker throw (I had to)
A video with two hosts where one is sitting down for most of the video while the heavily pregnant woman has to stand the whole time... Fine work, Matt! In all seriousness, this was a lovely video and the playfulness between you two is infectious.
She's the expert, so she's the one that came up with the experiment.
they should make an audiobook together where they simultaneously read their 2 books...
Oh god the cacophony...
Check out "Numberphile"
Someone should write two books so that they synchronize when read together.
PLEASE I would love it
"If you had an infinite number of throws, and you could throw them perfectly randomly..." he would miss the table most of the time.
It's like the old joke (well, I'm old and I was told the joke) of a physicist trying to explain the Monte Carlo method in a bar, so they describe it in terms of throwing darts at a dartboard. Come back next week and the bartender says "welcome back, I loved your explanation. Has your aim gotten any better?"
I would have loved to see Matt throw the second ball directly on the first ball and Hanna tell him that the coordinates of the balls are exactly the same.
Great video! :D
congrats for the baby!
And to the father
Yeah, another person to suffer on this world.
@@LordNezghul oof edgy
@@LordNezghul only Jesus can end our suffering
@@joshuawan7004 lol wtf?
Love your silly mathloving face! That smirk and side eye gets me every time!
It is official YOU DO NEED TO DO MORE WITH BOTH OFF YOU. The interaction (and faces drown) between you guys is hilarius to watch, and we are learning at the same time. Great video.
Greetings from Belgium.
Always love videos with Hannah, congrats on her upcoming family too
Excellent video. Thank you Dr Fry and Matt!
Two of my three favourite Mathologers having fun.
"As I throw more balls my confidence in my throwing skills lowers asymptotically towards zero."
This is the first i've seen or heard of Hannah Fry. I'm already a fan. She is awesome.
Always love to see Hannah Fry! Loved this one as well.
They always have so much fun together, that it spreads and reaches us through.
You guys are great, Matt. Love the dynamic between the duo!
The humor is on point. Love the videos
Mr. Parker I absolutely love your videos! And Hannah being in this one makes it even better!
You guys look like you're having so much fun!
I love it~
I love this duo. Great chemistry.
Matt and Hannah are a great team, I enjoyed this video very much.
I love this! I'm taking a class on Bayesian statistics now, and I would consider myself a Bayesian vs a Frequentist.
Another Parker/Fry video? Ummm, hell yes! Love you two :D
They should write a joint book titled "Tinker, Tailor, Parker, Fry"
@@zelatrix8545 I'm sure they could find two mathematicians with apt names who can be given credit as co-authors.
Wionderful and clear explanation. And, a priceless end skit of sharing about two books.
I know it's been a long time since this came out, but I have to say, the best part of this video is watching two good friends have fun with each other!
This was great! Thanks for the maths and the laughs.
You 2 are absolutely delightful.
This is the content I subscribed for and I'm definately not disappointed
Both of you keep math fascinating, and you're both loved for it.
The two of you are so entertaining. I really love it. 😁
Their duo is killing it! Good match!
Great fun, as always!
Bayes rocks! And probably rules too. Thanks for such a fun rundown on the basic approach
Great science communicators! Science needs more Matts and Hannahs!👩🏫👨🏫
Hannah and Matt are a great combo for making math fun!
Really appreciate this because that equation is on my wall as I’m revising statistics for my semester 2 first year exam and this has given me some insight
Excellent, excellent, excellent video.
I studied Computer Science at uni, with a little bit of AI.
Bayesian statistics was important, but I never knew where Bayes was coming from. My eyes are well and truly opened.
And of course, many congratulations to Dr. Fry.
Statistics indicate Hannah Fry will always be a great guest.
What a beautiful lesson.
Brilliant video!
Nice explanations. It will be very useful to me! Tks.
Loved the plugs at the end, very nice indeed
so niceeee love your videos and love hannah
these conversation is like two mathematicians flirting each other.
Finally! All that stuff I did in a previous job makes sense. I could do the computer stuff, I could do the mathematics stuff; but now I think I actually SEE what it's all about.
Great job. I expect no less from this channel, but this one really struck a chord.
😍Hannah
🤩Matt
The wrap-up from 11:00 or so should be a compulsory part of the education system.
OMG two of my favorite people!
You guys need your own tv show 💜
This is the best video I have seen this month.
This is one of my favorite things on youtube
I don't care what the video is about, I read Hannah Fry I click.
She's just lovely!
Great video, thanks
Lovely video!
Love you guys.
just brilliant!
Just reading the part of “Hello World” where Bayesian Statistics was discussed, and it reminded me of this video.
This is probably what prompted me to buy the book in the first place!
Took me a while, but I finally got around to reading it.
Gotta pick up Humble Pi next!
As always genius and funny 👌
Keep if up Matt and Hannah 👍
I just wrote an exam on Bayesian/Belief networks. It's a very interesting topic. They are very useful. Like Hannah's self-driving car example, robots can never know for sure if their sensory inputs are correct, so you need to account for uncertainty by using Bayesian nets. Matt could do a video on Hidden Markov Models, which are the simplest Belief networks to understand.
Hannah Fry is a treasure
Great collab.
I heard "try more random" and I couldn't help laughing.
Congratulations, Hannah!
The term I hear used that is more in contrast to Bayesian is "frequentist" just FYI. This is more looking at the things in a more Gaussian or Fischer way.
Many thanks to the stars of this - Hannah, Matt, the briefly appearing camera operator, and of course Hannah Jr ...
and now on Kolmogorov statistics!
So good! 👍
Hannah and Matt in one video? Great start into the weekend!
You should use this uncertainty to save your Parker Square.
8:26 Matt's face when he imagines having an infinite number of throws
Great Video
THANK YOU!
Good video!
probably my favourite mathematician and my favourite school of inference in one video.. Matt Parker, you've done it again
A fun, interesting, educational duo - the king and queen of mathematical edutainment
Used these concepts a lot while studying analog telecommunications. A typical question is: given that I am receiving X what's the probability that Y was transmitted.
This was cool! I think I'll have to go off and learn! :)
„february”
ah, love all those fresh videos
Apropos of nothing, please thank the owners of that house for letting us glimpse inside. It's beautiful!
Also, congrats to Dr Fry. I genuinely didn't notice until I read these comments.
Thankfully I have watched Derek's vid of the same topic so I can follow this video easily.
My favorite theorem
I think it is worth watching Matt’s videos more than once sometimes. I thought he was just being silly updating his belief about the house, but I had forgotten that by the end of the video. But watching again (showing it to my niece) I noticed right away what he was doing.