4 Reasons China's Out of Time to Invade Taiwan
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- čas přidán 15. 05. 2024
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China would need to invade Taiwan within the next 3 years if they want to take advantage of 4 key factors that are in their favor right now. These factors may not be what you think. They include China's aging demographics, current problems within the US military industrial base, the people's liberation army’s modernization timeline, and issues with the US navy’s sea lift capabilities.
Written by: Chris Cappy & Patrick Griffin
Video Edited by: Michael Michaelides
#CHINA #TAIWAN #WAR
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Every Second it Ticks Further and Further Away from Them, as Half the World Builds Against them, and they Dwindle in Numbers and Economy.
The Chinese are n bad, Chinese this and that, the Chinese have it bigger than the Americans, this Idiot you are preparing the Anti-Chinese Critical Mass Bomb. For others to die. For the Shadow Government of pedophiles. These 4th column youtuber. Government paid
so sure about that inflated population number????
\
Bless Your Perfection
Praise the true creators 🙌
An important but not mentioned part of China's One Child Policy is that in Chinese culture, children bear the burden and responsibility of taking care of their parents in old age. By having only one child, each death could mean the collapse of three families -- their own family, their parents, and their spouse's parents.
That was not something I thought about since the culture difference between the us and china but now that you mention it I can actually see that.
A different CZcams channel named "China Insights" said that a common Chinese household has a 1-2-4 format -- one child, two parents, and four grand-parents. That's a 4-to-3 elderly-to-youth makeup, and that's *bad.*
Yep, that one policy collapses the country. Reading peter zeihan books explains this well. China lifting it in 2015 will not help.
Correct me if im wrong. Many parents aborted female Fetusses because male children were regarded as more valuable and parents could only have one child. This makes the things worse because there are many more man staying single and only „few“ women to bear the next generation.
Holy shit, that's a scary thing to imagine
"they might get old before they get rich..." that hit me in the feels...
Hahah.. samee😭
@@TheBear710 Don't need to be rich to be comfortable, but China can't even do that for its people.
A little... too close to home you could say....😂
@TheBear yea I'm sure you're balling, out here making fun of people on the internet😂 it was a joke dude loosen up😂😂😂
@@TheBear710 If you try harder you will be called a nerd and have no acceptable social life during those growing years.
There are fundamental problems with US society and their standards.
Thank you for doubling down on the concept that Ukraine is not making the US weaker but it revealed its industrial complex to be weak in critical areas.
And we're not even supporting Ukraine to save the country; we're supporting Ukraine to deplete the russian war machine. People don't understand that Russia isn't invading Ukraine to "liberate" them from Nazis, nor is it because they're butthurt about NATO; Russia is on the warpath to capture land with access points to Russia, meaning Ukraine was only the beginning (Poland understands this, that's why they're about to be the biggest military superpower in Europe) and the moment Russia sets foot in Poland, that means NATO, which means U.S. involvement and the instant obliteration of Russias army - and if you think Putin is acting cagey now, just wait until he no longer has an army; those idle threats about nuclear strikes wont sound so idle.
As someone who used to work in the area, this is it. There production rates are really slow and stuck full of people who don't want to work.
Imagine supporting the same military complex the destroyed the Middle East that many Europeans and other countries are still suffering the backlash from
Agreed. This problem was being highlighted years before the Ukraine invasion, it's just that nobody started listening until the US started supplying Ukraine with much-needed weaponry...something we did all the time with other countries during the Cold War.
@@ChuckMorton That may be, but it's a change over to "build to demand" industry that all industries have embraced, rather than building large amounts and storing the product, which is what we did for most goods until the late 90's.. It's a way of increasing efficiency and keeping costs down instead of building large storage facilities and maintaining years worth of product that has yet to be sold.
It's great when demand is stable as costs remain lower all the way down to the consumer, but if demand suddenly jumps the supply just goes away and prices skyrocket... Look at the ammo shortage in 2020/21 for a perfect example of how this "high efficiency/low stock" (It's got a name in economics but it's slipping my mind at the moment) manufacturing technique is very shaky when it comes to changing market dynamics wherein demand suddenly increases
You forgot the 5th and maybe most important factor. The huge modernization, growth and improved training of the Japanese military. Who promised to help Taiwan if it was ever attacked. Not to mention all the other surrounding countries that have beef with china (Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, India and more).
@@memeboi3448dont think my people would be holding grudges against American at all
The Philippines faced off with China many times.
Before I retired from the USAF 25 years ago, I warned that adopting the "just in time" logistics model would leave us unable to maintain anything more than a short conflict, but the promise of reduced logistics cost outweighed any such concerns I and others had, and now we're reaping the penalties of that dumb decision.
…would you say that the “just in time logistics” model shortcomings has been exacerbated by COVID’s impact?
I work in manufacturing and we have a very similar model for inventory called LEAN that is what it sounds like, keep practically no inventory on hand and only order what you need. Which is great when lead times are short and vendors have stock. When shit hit the fan with covid it became impossible to make anything anymore because we couldn't get parts. And at the time I was the expeditor, which meant everyone blamed me. The new company that bought us out doesn't really ascribe to the Lean philosophy and I couldn't be happier.
@@RenayeBrown-yy1ck Covid was only what started the domino chain, which has been fifty years and more in the making.
@Cory Thackston sounds like how banks work with money but a manufacturing company instead lol
Never understood why they adopt this model for militaries
As a retired executive who worked for Taiwanese tech companies, I can tell you that Taiwan MAKES the chips but doesn’t DESIGN the chips…Intel, National Semi, Texas Instruments, Motorola, Philips, Siemens etc. are not going to provide designs for a Chinese fab plant. Ain’t happening.
Yes they will. They've been giving China technology for decades now.
Exactly and the machines that make up those Fabs are from Baltic states like Sweden,Finland, and so on. This is a complex process in which reverse engineering or intellectual property theft will not be enough to help China.
If the price is right, or the spies are tight, the designs can be taken
@@sumotony you can never get all the information by spying. They will have major gaps in their knowledge and this will result in issues that the original design will not have.
@@sumotony and how has spying left China? Riddled with stolen goods that are inferior and with no knowledge on how to make them even if they got the designs.
BTW, It ain't just the US facing off with China. It's also Japan, Australia and possibly India as well with geographical assistance from bases in the Philippines.
The US won't be alone in helping Taiwan. South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines are almost obligated to help in a full-scale war with China due to the proximity of US military bases stationed in those countries.
The Philippines may not even need to join the war per se, but choose to focus on defending since all the logistics problems mentioned here can also be addressed by developing weapons and energy industries in the Philippines. The Philippines after all do have a lot of untapped oil deposits, and it would be smarter to develop that alongside expanding US capabilities to bring their own oil. Developing ship making and missile productions will also shorten the distance from supplies and repairs for the US, which would be much closer to Taiwan than, say, Japan and Korea. The strategic location of the islands in the northern Philippines in the Bashi channel also makes a perfect spot for setting up missile defense systems and recon to respond quickly in the event of an invasion. Bases were also located in the Palawan Islands in the Philippines to put the artificial islands setup by China in check and to secure the chokepoints to the sulu sea. All that said, Marcos Jr.'s decision to give the US access to all these crucial bases have pretty much lit a fire under China's ass. Not to mention that oil and LNG in Mindanao has already started development after the final Muslim insurgents have been crushed by the Philippine government.
The constitution of the Philippines explicitly stops the country from being an aggressor in a war, they are purely defensive.
Another issue is whether China will actually gained that semiconductor Tech if they invade. From what I'm hearing, there are plans on both the Taiwanese an American side to destroy those semiconductor plants in the event of an invasion.
yup... there is no chance the tsmc plants in hsinchu, a city close to the coast, could survive the invasion. since taiwan makes 92% of all advanced chips, needed for guidance systems for example, and is 10 years ahead of everyone else, the chinese invasion would set the world back a minimum of those 10 years. not only that, but with 50% of all the world's chips gone, we are all out of cheap phones and computers etc., and i would love to actually see what that world would look like and what people would think of the country that had caused it. that combined with the reality that the taiwanese are not laying down for ccp, that the chinese army is probably even more corrupt than russia's due to china's saving face culture, and the facts that china would be economically sent back into the stone age by sanctions and boycotts and that the US can't afford to let china have taiwan for their chip-making capabilities without which all american weapons systems are useless, makes the whole thing unlikely. oof, i run-on-sentenced myself out.
@@voytek528 Any sanctions on China will hurt the US just as much.
China is not motivated by the semiconductors. For them, taiwan has to get under control of the ccp. The semiconductors stuff is an excuse that western politicians say just to get involved in their internal affairs
Very stupid idea for the us to attack Taiwan in the case of armed reunification. It would be taken as an attack on Chinese sovereign territory and will invite retaliation.
@@voytek528 i know what you're saying, but i would NOT love to see it. It's the last thing I want to see happen, though I am not sure if it's really unavoidable.
It just dawned on me that each of these types of videos are like mini research papers. If I had to pump those out for my history class on a weekly basis, I would definitely fail because I would not be able to meet the deadlines. I greatly appreciate your effort.
@@MisterNi I am aware.
Chris all about China getting motivated for invasion
He's got a team behind him
AI and chatbit will soon take over
Mini research papers! "We're still here ... We are not going anywhere." ~ Native Americans 😔
Native Americans: Our Native American population in our motherland, the Continent of America before the European Colonizers arrived, was around 15 millions, while the European population in their motherland, the Continent of Europe was around 25 millions.
Today, Native American population is 15 million, while the European population, in the Continents of America + Europe, is a staggering 'TWO BILLIONS'! A shocking sad truth. 😔
The world: It's about time to decolonize the Colonized lands, and return it to rightful owners Native American people.
Notorious global cardinal crimes the West has committed, and benefited a great deals, such as Slavery & Colonialism had long been over, why on earth is notorious Colonization still lingering on? 😔
Native Americans: We're still here. We are not going anywhere. 😔
Slavery, Colonialism & Colonization are all evil things done by evildoers. May I ask why not let Native Americans have Europe, since Europeans have had both North/South America Continents already; a fair deal?
Remember the saying, "You can't have your cake and eat it too", "A man's gotta do, what a man's gotta do".
Europe for Native Europeans,
Africa for Native Africans,
America for Native Americans,
Asia-Pacific for Native Asians-Pacific islanders.
Since I am currently at an Air Refueling Wing I can say the KC-135R is old as hell but it’s capable, our fleet is small here but we have plenty of room for more KCs and we’re able to support and and provide fuel for all of NATO should it come down to it. Even the KC-46 has its own problems with all the tech onboard. “If it ain’t broke don’t fix it”
Not to mention that getting boots on the ground in Taiwan will be difficult since there is a narrow window of attack since the water in the Taiwan straight is very dangerous during most of the year.
Added that the Island only has a handful of landing sites that can accommodate such a invasion.
Also added that there is a large mountainous terrain that would add to the gorilla warfare.
Another factor to consider is that Japan has now woke up to the facts about China's intentions. Japan is now also poring money into it's military and as a close US ally, is rapidly arming itself to counter China's threat. Japan's close to China location gives it strategic advantages.
Thus China, in invading Taiwan, would not only risk involving the US, but Japan and other SE Asia countries. Countries that also have ongoing disputes with China such as The Philippines, Indonesia, et al. After watching NATO's effect on the Ukrainian war, China must realize that they are not only going to take on Taiwan and the US, but also Japan and other close by countries protecting their own interests against China's threat as well.
yeah the point is their total defense budget is only like 1/30 of the chinese😂
How can they get their budget?
Japan is an American ally because they gave up the right to claim war and amass military power following WW2, therefore Japan relies 100% upon the USA for their protection and the USA gets military bases throughout Japan. Granted, in 2019 they made an ammendment to Article 9 to allow "self defense" military mobilization.
Curious how Japan would react if China offered Japan their freedom of military, right to war, and nuclear freedom if they fought on China's side. Considering their proximity to China, and the apparent military power that China is gathering...if Russia supplied China with a few more nukes I think Japan would cross over to an alliance with China
@@Aetriex If U go over their history, they always learn from the dominant force in each era…
@@Aetriex So, a few things really fast:
1. Japan is an American ally because of the rapid expansion/ballooning borders of the Soviet Union at the end of WW2. The Japanese government was no less fearful of the spread of communism than the US was; this is the actual root of the US-Japan alliance that we see today. The fact that the US successfully and humanely administered an interim occupational government, which facilitated the rapid rebuilding and profound rebound of Japan's post-war nation/economy, also has an enormous amount to do with this. Furthermore, the suppression of post-war legal charges regarding Japanese war crimes all but pigeonholes Japan into a pro-American foreign policy, but we'll get back on that shortly...
2. Japan has maintained an official self defense force (read: defensible military) since the end of Allied occupation in 1952. This was actually both encouraged and initiated by the US in order to maintain safety and stability in Japan starting in 1950, as a result of the onset of the Korean War. In 1954, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force was founded by the Self-Defense Force act; the first 85 planes were provided by the US Air Force in 1955. Article 9 does not explicitly forbid a defensive-oriented security force, and seems directed specifically at aggressive militarism, like we now observe in China and Russia. Since 1952, Japan has progressively broadened its range of interpretations of Article 9, and not without support from the US. Indeed, Washington has long encouraged Japan to pursue its' own defensive needs, while maintaining the diplomatic stance behind the 1960 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security (Thus enabling the presence of US bases in Japan). In fact, there are some whom claim that the lack of "nuclear" anywhere in Article 9 does not explicitly outlaw the procurement of nuclear weapons, but more on that shortly...
3. For at least the past 12 years, Japan has consistently ranked in the range of eighth to ninth for military expenditures. Japan's army of nearly 250k puts it at 19th for active personnel, although with low reserves they drop to 37th in total personnel. Either way, this is still more than the standing forces of Poland, the UK, or Finland. Consider this. Although Japan is certainly dependent to some degree on the US for defense, to say it is by a measure of 100% is certainly false.
4. Japan has long been known as "screw's turn", or nuclear latent state. For about half a century, Japan has been one of the leading countries in Nuclear energy. One of the big reasons why Fukushima was such a huge deal in Japan was because it raised the question of similar events happening with any of their other nuclear power stations. As a result of this public reliance on nuclear energy to meet power needs over half a century, Japan has long held one of the leading stockpiles of enriched uranium - somewhere in the range of 4th-6th globally by volume. It would take very little for Japan to enrich this material to the point of weapons-grade. Telemetry data/software is, obviously, a non-issue for a country like Japan. This only leaves delivery systems. Consider that the world's first ICBMs began appearing shortly after the start of the space race - interestingly, almost universally made from rockets developed for space agencies. As I'm sure you know, Japan has attained the capability for space travel, and has acted on such. What all of these points collectively mean is that Japan has long held the capability to develop and deliver nuclear weapons. The reason they have not done so is far less a matter of outside states saying "no" and far more a matter of Japan itself choosing not to. It is also arguable that Article 9 does not cover nuclear proliferation. Furthermore, if unpredictable and belligerent states such as North Korea are permitted to retain nuclear arsenals, who could reasonably cry foul were Japan to develop them? Some make the argument that Japan is the only country holding the right to a nuclear arsenal, by virtue of them being the only country ever struck by such weapons.
5. So, back to those war crimes. I'm not certain if you're familiar with the "4 Alls" policy (as declared from Hirohito's own lips!), or the "Rape of Nanking". If you're not, I would recommend pulling up some Mark Felton history videos and properly acquainting yourself to the scope and extremity of Japanese war crimes. Many countries in East and Southern Asia, to this day, are still very aware of these events, and are further cognizant of the fact that many said crimes were essentially "swept under the rug" by the US following WW2. Although relations have improved significantly over the past 70 years between Japan and almost every nation formerly under their imperial yoke, China has very vocally *NOT* moved on with the rest. Considering the long-standing tension between the two nations relative to acknowledgement of war crimes, I just don't see China making such overtures as you're suggesting. Further consider Japan's relationship with North Korea and the countless rockets that Pyongyang has flown over Japan in the past half a decade.
6. Lastly, concerning the suggestion of, "freedom of military, right to war, and nuclear freedom," regardless of how unlikely I think China is to pursue such action (as aforementioned), I think the bigger question is, "Does Japan even really desire any of those freedoms or rights?" Numerous studies over many decades have consistently shown that the Japanese proudly reject their militaristic past and desire to maintain their status as a peaceful, non-nuclear state. However, with the events of the past year, many Japanese are increasingly questioning such a stance, and it would seem that both the US and Japanese governments are pushing for Japan to re-potentiate their military status.
TLDR: I give reasons why Japan is definitely not going to side with China in pretty much anything.
One problem with the Chips Act: they’re planning to open semi-conductor fabs in Arizona, as opposed to something like the Great Lakes region, which means if they ever have to produce significant demand, they’re going to deplete the groundwater supplies of the Arizona desert. Fabs are extremely water hungry, such that Taiwan’s freshwater supplies are already stressed by fab production.
@Dobbis only problem is that California (outside of a few US military projects) has yet to actually deploy that desalination tech, just cancelled one, and has no tech at scale.
Edit: and the basin is temporarily recovering, we have no real clear indication that this weather event will even repeat next year, much less frequently enough to make up for another decade+ long draught.
@@xipietotec Flip a coin. Either there is a drought or a flood in California.
@Dobbis the act was passed before the weather was known, so I don’t buy that, but I also don’t buy that Arizona is a pinnacle of low resource usage,
See: Phoenix.
Ironically the best example of low water usage per capita is actually the LA Basin, which despite having grown by several million people in the last 20 years still almost uses the same amount of water it did 20 years ago.
I invite you to look at the same timeline for Arizona’s urban growth, and then try and factor in the extra growth that will come to the same dry basin with the advent of water hungry industrial chip fabs on top of it. It’s not good.
Personally I think the choice was pork barrel for Arizona on one hand, and penny pinching by the MIC with regards to purchasing land and meeting environmental regulations when it comes to sourcing somewhere with good freshwater tables like the Great Lakes region, that is however simply my opinion.
@@patrickjanecke5894 well, for over a decade I flipped that coin and it came up draught. I also know what happens if I flip the coin again for two more years and it comes up draught (after a flood), the 3rd year the coin gains a new face that says: Chaparral Fire, and it almost always comes up on that face.
Intel is building an entire new campus in Columbus OH. There's major fabs in upstate NY as well. Oregon. And any time we want we could add another unit to Palo Verde Nuclear power station in AZ, and run desal with the power. Water isn't that big an issue. The water will go where the money is. They could stop growing alfalfa for the Saudi's camels in AZ for instance. And the water crisis is held up now by the lack of political will to decide who's paying. Right now, no one wants to pay for it. In a war or a different geopolitical security environment? Things will move much more quickly.
Well done video, Chappy. Excellent summary of where things stand today.
That was laid out great. Thanks for the update.
Again! Chris is generating high-quality content at such a high rate! IMPRESSIVE!!!
At first, I was put at ease at Cappy's first assessment that China is losing the long-game, but then I got depressed again when you showed me how weak our Military Industrial Complex has become since ending the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq... The U.S. has become a nation of cheapskates, in every industry, from the military to pot holes... And if we have leaders that are isolationists when China and/or Russia start some 'naughty no noes', we are skewed, because we'll just let them take over whomever they want while we bury our heads in the sand.
Cappy's content surge capacity is indeed very impressive.
Ikr?! Dude is legit talented.
He has a team! no one can do that much alone !!!!!
@@williamyoung9401 Cappy? More like Crappy. This is low effort bullshit that thousands of videos can dispute.
Good analysis. People miss one key thing. China has only 36 landing ship tank, that's 10 to 15 tanks each and ~150 troops. They have 36 landing ship medium, 10-20 trucks and perhaps 200 troops. They have 8 amphibious transport dock; 600-800 troops with 4 landing hover craft. That's 1 tank &/or 70 troops per hover craft trip. This means China can land at most 14,840 troop first wave. 392 tanks at any one location. That assumes no ships are lost and they all target the one location, which they can't. By comparison during Normandy the US landed that many troops in one day on Omaha beach. That was 10 times the landing assets. 1st Infantry Division had ~15000 officers and men on D-Day. Two other divisions hit Omaha beach with them. It was a hard fight.
The Russians may have sent China a few older rusty landing craft to study and reverse engineer but their really only good for hauling troops and trucks in fair seas. They've never seen combat. Would you get on a ship made of Chinesium?
China can't use paratroopers in large numbers, 30% would defect on hitting the ground.
If all their ships successfully landed all their manpower. That's ~21000 troops if nothing goes wrong.
China has a huge military but it can't get to them to the target by normal means.
21000 troops hitting Taiwan' fortified beaches at once is target practice for the 215,000 defenders and 2,310,000 Reservists.
This is further complicated by the propensity of the average Chinese soldier to surrendering on the offer of a $100, a hot meal and a shower. Something the Ukrainians are offering to Russians.
The real threat China poses on its enemies are cyber attacks and fifth columnist saboteurs. THAT is what we need to watch out for. No telling how many authority figures and rent-a-mobs they have in their pockets right now.
Source: Trust me bro, I'm an expert.
@@joelim5010 Furthermore, who thinks China will only rely on infantry and tanks? If anything the invasion of Ukraine has shown that artillery, ADS, Aircraft, drones and missiles are critical for any modern conflict. Having excessive numbers or too little numbers do not mean that much when ,without adequate defenses, they can be blown away with all the aforementioned strike platforms.
To adjust your assessment of the 36 landing ships it’s no secret they plan to use the 1000’s of refitted civilian ships backed by a naval blockade of Taiwan but more importantly a massive incomprehensible saturating barrage of guided missiles and rockets on its coast line landing points and its military positions and bases so it’s possible
@@robvett8584 Yes I am aware of the truck ferry's but you must take the port to use them and they are sitting ducks for any anti ship assets and I'm betting they are made of chinesium.
Thanks for the analysis. Its been hard to grasp what is going on in the region.
I think that TSMC is still pretty unique in their ability to manufacture the best chips and will remain so for some time. Minimizing failure rates, and thus cost, is a really big deal. We can build the factories, but that skill takes decades
Raytheon customer support joke was ingenious, honestly
bruh, its all fun and game until you actually have to call them
so help me gawd as oblivious as mgmt and corporate can be i swear it's likely more an accurate depiction rather than a spoof.
Thank you for saying helping Ukraine isn’t making us weak, but revealing existing deficiencies.
It didn't exactly help by sending all these supplies and billions of dollars to Ukraine...
@@fieldmarshalbaltimore1329 oh yeah, basically destroying the military of your 2nd biggest rival by using 30 years old equipment that would rot in some desert anyways don't help the us strategically. Sounds legit
@@stasguivan4680 yes, because increasing inflation through the spending of money we don't have to Ukraine is a good idea. It isn't 30yo equipment. It's the newest stuff. Javelins. Abrams. Artillery shells and advanced missile systems. Etc. All stuff the government has to buy back to replace stockpiles of. Stockpiles that are dangerously low now. Imagine an all out shooting war with China only the US doesn't have the munitions to fight for a week.
@@fieldmarshalbaltimore1329 what Ukraine serves as for many of the governments sending equipments is a live testing ground. The best way to test your weapons is to simply go to war. Not to mention it serves as a great excuse for defense contractors to grow without much criticism.
Plus it’s not like a couple billion is even a drop in the bucket of US defense spending lol
You missed one vital point. It isn't just the the US defending Taiwan, it's every Western democracy that depends on Taiwan's chip industry along with Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Those countries are rapidly producing high tech weapon systems and South Korea in particular has a very large arms industry which is currently supplying Poland with tanks and 155mm SPG's as well as backfilling US stocks of 155mm shells being sent to Ukraine. The US does not need to carry the can for Taiwan alone. China will be making a huge mistake if it thinks it will only have to fight the US over Taiwan. China has been very busy making enemies of countries it really can't afford to anger. India in particular is also dependent on Taiwan for it's cell phone industry and making them an enemy was a very stupid move.
A very informative presentation - well done and your overdue for a promotion from infantry man !!!!
Window of opportunity to capture Taiwan maybe is closing (it is disputable if it ever have been open) but the window of opportunity to recapture Vladivostok and Siberia is rapidly opening
Why would you want that wastelands?
@@caniblmolstr4503 Natural resources.
Well it just isn't it Ukraine simp?
Why invade it if they can buy it cheaply, considering that Russia from now on will be in China's pocket?
Taking that Russian land (which was China’s two centuries ago) will ultimately let China go around the US’s island containment wall (for China’s military), as well as provide useful resources and land that isn’t mountains or deserts. China currently has 70% of it’s land consisting of mountains and deserts.
The economic s**tstorm after invasion like this is scary to even consider.
I think the ramifications would be incalculable. It's probably one of the biggest reasons China hasn't invaded yet.
This why America has such a high military budget.
Hurt us more then them
It will tank the global economy.
@@Shinkajo It takes time to prepare for the end of US dollar.
We learned more about China from the balloons than they learned about us.
Amazing job on this. I feel very informed.
One of the aspects to this is that China overestimates their population numbers since no middle manager wants to report that their area has a decreasing population (not just aging pop)
Middle managers won't get reprimanded for natural cycle, that's been present since first living creature appeared. People die and you can't do anything about it
I heard thats the same problem they have with gdp reporting. Local officials dont seem to want to report recessions and want to meet national gdp growth targets (regardless of whether it makes sense or not). It makes sense in terms of career progression. I believe the ccp called it corruption of numbers... but i think they are scared to dig too deep into it, lol. Understandable
The regional Chinese officials exaggerated the number of children starting kindergarten. This was done to increase the amount of money sent to their districts by the state.
Corruption is always rampant in communist countries, just ask anyone who has lived in or is from China or Russia.
not to mention their absolute lack of actual combat experienced troops. The only legitimately seasoned personnel within their ranks concerning full scale war, and not deniable ops, are elderly men who would have been in action during Korea or Vietnam. Similar to the Russian predicament in the sense that, conscripts are great for military parade density but not necessarily holding actual ground. By comparison NATO has substantially more across the board.
Perhaps the decades of conflict USA has been involved in are actually a boon in that sense.
Xi Jingping: WRITE THAT DOWN WRITE THAT DOWN
*Chinese defense ministry urgently playing tic tac toe*
I legit cackled at this
Hey Task & Purpose, where are you getting your data on their population numbers?
The Sun Tzu the art of war. 'When the enemy is awake you sleep and when the enemy is sleeping you attack"
You can just call him Winnie the Pooh
-100 social credit score for you joban
So America is scared of Winnie the Pooh?
But Pooh wants his Honey and it’s in Taiwan!
@@rcrinsea His face does look like one.
@@sumotony only -100? Chinise goverment is beeing very generous today!
We shipped our heavy industry (steel mills) and our manufacturing base to China, Indonesia, and India for cheap products and now we are in serious trouble. Those factories take time to build and they also need infrastructure to function. We have not had any notable industrial policy from Washington for many years but finally Congress has started to address the issue. Thank you for highlighting a serious National Security problem we have.
we just blew up two of our own steel mills in the UK , who needs invaders (and i know one Chinese plant exceeds the entire UK output in any one year).
Blame private American sector 😂 for cheap labor , once china goes in those companies would get absorbed into the communist
Not just to build. There is effectively nobody in America with the expertise and knowledge that comes with operating and maintaining a steel plant anymore. Workers, plant managers, maintenance, engineering; all of that went out in the 1970s. The brain drain is complete. You would have to completely rebuild the entire steel industry from the ground up.
Not 'we'! Freakin' greedy businessmen and corporations did that!
You "shipped" your heavy industry to China because it was vastly cheaper and more efficient to do so, to be fair.
And once China is no longer the "world's factory" those companies will then latch on to other south-east Asian nations like Indonesia and Vietnam to replace it.
Bro, I work in a precision machine shop. We're slow. We're all slow right now. I can tell you, without a doubt, we most certainly have the surge capacity for war production here in the USA. You stick stick to the subjects you're good at, and us manufacturers will stick to ours.
"Usurping" usually means obtaining power by means of manipulation, or using your position inappropriately or illegally, and traditionally it was applied to the throne of kings. Some sort of force is usually associated with usurpation, but not warfare - and the force may merely be the threat of violence, or the very limited use of violence. Warfare and combat is what civil wars, rebellions, and uprisings utilise to obtain power. Usurpation is different: it uses cunning and strategy, and fear, and manipulation to achieve its goals.
At least, that is what I learned in my English classes a very long time ago.
Speaking of sealift capability, I'm pretty sure that if China even made slight moves toward building enough amphibious capability to mount an effective invasion of Taiwan, it would be readily visible from space. Taiwan is much further from China than Normandy is from England, and look what that took.
Depends on the ports used but the distances should be similar. Many of the slow landing craft had to travel 24-36h prior to landing on D-Day, presumably today the LC would be a bit faster, say 10knots rather than 5-8.
In terms of Amphibious capacity you're right in that it should be visible, as would be the training but the China could probably build a lot of relatively small and easy to construct landing craft very quickly considering their current naval construction capacity.
@Eastside Azskelad Like I said, the assembly would be readily visible from space and give warning of the buildup.
I was under the impression that china can only commit to an amphibious assault during either April or October when the tide is low enough
The problem is
Ukraine 🇺🇦 gets weapons resupply by the polish border easily.
How will Taiwan 🇹🇼 get ?
Ship & landing port can get easily detected & destroyed by hypersonic missile.
Taiwan's main problem will be ammunition resupply, after small island like, which is 17 times smaller than Ukraine, will lose maximum of its weapons & ammunition depot by continuous missile strike & bombings from ship & others.
It wouldn't matter since the first waves will be endless airstrikes and missiles from their man made islands that is everywhere now.
A former Indian Navy chief elaborated on the US tanker problem, & offered a solution wherein Indian Navy's refuelers could be used extensively by the USN in the Indian Ocean region, while their MIC focuses on building warships instead, to counter China. Indian Navy could also take up the mantle of the net security provider in the IOR, from Malacca to Hormuz in the event of a war between the US & China, relieving the US assets in the IOR to be deployed in SCS, in his opinion.
This 👆🏼
Those countries should invest in total defence: implement conscription and construct depots with IDEs, anti-tanks guns + manpads. Give ammo and srvice rifles to conscripts, make sure that every invader is welcome in hell. The Chinese are familiar with Sun Zi. Unless Putin, they won't attack if they realise they cannot win that war, or costs are simply too high.
Highly doubt that for anything long or medium term. India is aware of its growing power and has more than once stated it is out for itself.
@@unregistereduser1088 Yeah and No China would figure largely in that.
@dwwolf4636 Neither China nor India have gone anywhere for a couple thousand years.
The sad reality is that even if most people know that this invasion, if it were to take place would be disastrous for both countries, this alone won't stop egotistical leaders from jumping the gun
The other thing we overlook, when it comes to supply, is what sort of disruptions would occur with a war. Sure we make our equipment here, mostly, but what about the machines which make the equipment, what about the lube, the chemicals, the stuff that goes into making equipment which doesn't end up on the final data sheet? Much of that comes from China. And it wouldn't have to be a major percentage of the parts. One or two missing items could shut the entire factory down.
In the event of a full-scale conflict around Taiwan, I have little doubt that both Japan and Australia would provide extensive logistical support to any force fighting to defend Taiwan from annexation.
It would be in their best interest
@@chipschannel9494 yes
What annexation? Even the ROC constitution says that Taiwan is a part of China but that the ROC is the legitimate government and not the PRC.
If Japan get involve I can honestly tell you that based on 1.4 billion Chinese Japan just don’t have to exist anymore.
@@tonymoy5291 you can't predict that outcome. Nobody can. So you can "honestly" tell me anything you want, but that doesn't make it a fact. And estimating military aoutcomes based on numbers alone is incredibly lazy and shortsighted. What was the population of China when Ghengis Khan conquered it with a force maybe 1/50th that size? Or Alexander's army compared to that of Darius? China's main advantage is not numbers but its logistical base in the South Pacific region. Logistical support from Japan and Australia would negate that advantage.
Gotta say, Chris, your sponsor clips are often more entertaining on their own than many other channel’s entire episodes
It’s annoying.
Try Internet Historian ones, so much lore
It was pretty clever, I admit. I wonder if Ridge ever paid him for it? They do not have a five-star rep in that department.
Are there any other good examples of “the best time for this to happen is right now” events? It’s a fascinating topic
Japan is Taiwan's unlikely ally if it comes to this point. And Japan is still ramping up their military for this eventuality.
I generally agree with your take on the converging dynamics pointing to the most likely timing of an invasion being 2027. Japan and South Korea are also increasing their defense budgets, in part, to deter China. But most important is the West's unified stance on sanctions against Russia. My guess is that as long as the West hangs together against Russia in Ukraine, China won't risk the double whammy of military defeat and economic collapse that is facing Russia.
It is hard to gauge Xi, who was a Red Guard during the cultural revolution seems doesn't care about closing the door and rolling back to pre-economic reform era.
Russia isn't going to collapse. China Russia and Saudi Arabia are giving up the petrol dollar. We will fall without a shot, all that needs to happen is the petrol dollar gets supplanted and goodbye endless American debt spending, goodbye leverage on the entire world.
@@ac-stingz Maybe. At the same time, I also think he wants to maintain China's spot in the global market place. "invade Taiwan? ...or....keep stacking those Yuan? Decisions, Decisions!"
Of course, as Putin has shown, dictators will often choose Nationalism over $$$. I mean, there's NO real logical, sensible reason for the Ukraine invasion. Vlad could have just kept on as he does, being Dictator for life, doing whatever he wants within the borders of Russia, keep getting Olympics, keep making oil billionaires disappear, keep poisoning his enemies and enriching himself and no one outside would care beyond the mandatory, "tut-tut". Invading the non-Russian parts of Ukraine opened up a shitstorm that is going to affect Russia for decades to come, and there was no good reason for it.
@@davidbrown4540 if they have to choose between power and money, they will pick the first one. That's their lifeline. Doesn't mean they don't want the latter, but Xi and his minions won't care, as they will not be the one who suffer. Just look at those business leaders, they all got coerced into accepting the CCP being in control of their companies.
@@ac-stingz What? Do you even know Xi's history? How was he a red guard when he was prosecuted himself during the CR
I think this is the only channel I don't skip ahead during the add part. Good job being funny
Tbh its why I have CZcams Premium.
@@scottyfox6376 thats why i have a adblocker lol i aint giving youtube a penny
Long-term economics come earlier with unexpected economic shocks.
The S curve of change has the ramp-up years removed.
This is an interesting insight.
Horse meat was widely available after the T model Ford rolled of the production line.
T model Ford was the 20th design, and it went into production for 20 years.
There's 0 chance a conquest of Taiwan means you suddenly have the capacity of TSMC. Even if it was wholesale turned over, with all IP, fabs and everything completely intact, including their without compare human R&D assets. This is effectively assuming the conqueror unilaterally withdraws from international agreement on IP and contractual clauses, and that Taiwan doesn't have plans to burn their largest strategic asset to the ground the second it's at risk.
TSMC can't do anything long term without ASML which is a Dutch company, and produce the $140 million dollar machines which are the only ones capable of manufacturing high end chips, and even if you manage to get access to those, ASML can't do anything without their under suppliers of incredibly advanced parts from the west, Korea and Japan.
We aren't talking about making hammers and bullets here. Both Russia and China have worked at trying to create chips for decades at this point. Where Russia's MCST and Zhaoxin Semiconductor use TSMC right now (or at least up until recently when sanctions hit) to produce their chips, with Russia pulling out over sanctions. Even with TSMC as their fab Russia has since 1992 achieved the shocking ability to produce the equivalent of a Pentium 4 a 20 year old processor.
Isolated authoritarian regimes can't create modern advanced technology.
Yeah, for how big they are, those high-end photolitho machines are astonishingly precise and can be 'touchy' -- so they don't transport well, and even once in place, they aren't exactly what you'd call 'set and forget' 😂
As literally Xi Jingping himself, I am offended that Cappy clickbaited me
my beloved supreme leader can you reset my social score i have a minus in front of my numbers and this is a inaccurate representation of my love of my country
@@FEDEXLuchs Comrade, We don't care about your love for the country, only your love for the party!
@@FEDEXLuchs you call wise red dragon winnie pooh, -999999999999 social credit
THE WORLD WILL ALWAYS SUPPORT CHINA AND STAND BESIDE CHINA.....
✝️☯️🇨🇳GOD BLESS CHINA🇨🇳☯️✝️
please daddy Xi don't pull us in to another world war you're too sexy
I disagree with one point... The US had relied on long term accumulation of armaments, particularly munitions. The production capacity for an all-out manufacturing push wasn't there, didn't need to be there (so it was felt), but would also take a while to spin up if it *was* needed. So slow accumulation with limited use meant that, over time, a large stockpile could be maintained. It was felt that this would be sufficient for short term supply of any engagement. However, supplying Ukraine has revealed that this system is not NEARLY adequate enough to sustain a high demand conflict more resemblent of traditional warfare. (That would be a big, "Oopsie" on the US military.) So now, the Pentagon will have to modify their approach and do it quickly and put together a new supply stream and somehow get the funding for it while still paying $500 for a toilet seat. In the interim, stockpiles *are* diminishing and, as you pointed out, replacement for some of these can be 2-3 years in the offing and that creates a significant strategic weakness for the USA.
Excellent video, very well thought out and valid points
Here we are 7 months later and I’m happy to report that production rates of weapon stockpiles (I believe missile production and artillery ammunition) are up significantly, around 60% increase of Im remembering correctly. Going to have to do my homework after watching this. I’m curious about our air refueling platforms and capabilities. Does anyone know if there has been a shift in either modernizing or improving those planes or their tech?
Buckets of civilian jets that could be rigged for drogue and probe refueling; add wingtip equipment and cargo space bladders and you have lots of jerry rigged tankers to deal.
2027 was mentioned by another youtuber a few weeks/months ago as the year they might invade, due to the USN's projection of fielding the least amount of ships then; and they were quoting someone else, maybe a USN strategic planner.
But my workmate likes to remind me when we talk about this - China's military is untested. We know what happens when a military relies on imagined capability to win wars (ref Ukraine).
I’d rather our military prepare for an actual threat as projected, rather than stay unprepared and find itself caught on the backfoot of massive defeats. The british had the same mindset about the japanese and they paid quite dearly for it.
The American army was untested when went into Iraq
@@tomhenry897 The chinese won't be fighting against tech 30-50 years older than what they field.
@@tomhenry897 Iraq was not a near peer threat like we are to China though so that’s not a valid comparison
What is really important to know about the one child policy is that it created a missmatch in the male / female balance in the younger generations.
I believe China views its window to successfully invade Taiwan as shrinking. The US has awoken to its logistical and technological shortcomings and is moving quickly to address them; Japan is growing the size of its military and adding capabilities it hasn't had since WWII; Australia is expanding the size and capabilities of their military too; and many smaller regional players in southeast China are increasingly wary of China's bullying and are increasingly looking toward the US for assurances. China likely needs to win an invasion of Taiwan quickly -- getting slowed or stuck having only taken a small portion of the western part of the island will put enormous pressure on China to sustain high-end combat.
One thing you didn’t touch on are US nuclear submarines. We have a massive advantage in the submarine game, and they will likely play a massive role in the inevitable war.
That was pretty good work. Entertaining and informative ..... and Cappy's getting better at pronouncing foreign words. All good stuff. Thank you, Gus
Gotta give Chris credit where its due .Usually i skip the ads,but i watch his sponsored ads cause of the time and effort he puts in the skits making it funny 🤣
Thank God for sponsor block
That ad was too funny there not supposed to be that funny 😂
Chris and his team!!!!! His access to hi quality info and a willingness to confidently commit it to You-tube demonstrates that he will be having direct dialogue and input from the DOD. What should be learned here is that with near certainty the US already has tanker capacity to fuel at sea and in the air. Years ago the UK was seriously looking to lease commercial jets with underwing munition mountings attached, so that missiles could be fired from 200 miles without having to spend billions on aircraft and the associated maintenance infrastructure. At least one commercial business jet has already been used for such a missile strike, possibly by Iran. Having large fuel bouncy-castle like bladders in commercial freight aircraft with the relevant nozzles can also pass as extensions of the existing airborne fuelling fleet. And yes, even the adds are worth watching. . . . . .
"Blaming it on the last guy" Is a perfectly reasonable thing to do for the first two years of someone's presidency. Any president. Goes both ways, also economic gains. It takes a long time for policies a new president makes to actually really create an effect barring some drastic executive orders. I'm not saying its the case for every scenario but It's still pretty accurate.
Winnie the Pooh really looking like a Hollywood movie villain.
Omg! When Cappy was on the phone with Raytheon help line and said “your waiting time is…” in my head I thought 3 weeks. Then the help line said 3 weeks. Sweet..
Thanks for the videos! You do an amazing job at simplifying information and Keough things interesting. Can you give us some updates about the situation in Syria?
Good job chris you jinxed it
The x-factor when this war really materializes is how the world responds. PH, JP, KR, AU, NZ are known US allies in the Indo-Pacific and they will play a significant factor in this. EU & NATO will likely respond as well. Just like what is happening now in Ukraine, I'm guessing China have their doubts and TW leader seems not to bow down to CN (just like Zelensky to Putin).
As a food importing nation, China would be very vulnerable to being blockaded.
@@kindGSL That's their weakness i think. Starve them out and make their navy come out to fight. The US and most of their allies have fought wars at sea, China has not.
India will undoubtedly take advantage of any conflict to reassert its control of disputed territories and those occupied by the PRC. Heck, Mongolia might also decide that it needs an ocean port if things go south fast enough
Suspect if Ukraine drags on. , US will withdraw and leave it to Europe which Europe is now building towards
@@annarboriter i would say India is pretty likely but I feel like the Mongolia one will always sadly be a fantasy haha. or who knows they might join in the final days like Mexico in World War 2 lol.
This is why some senior commanders think this will happen sooner rather than later. But I think the biggest factor will be how the Chinese economy recovers in the next year or two. If things go well for their economy there will be less of a political need to provide a distracting war to keep the current regime in power.
and if that economy is not recovering?
The most important thing is the semiconductor's. If China had that they could be virtually self-reliant
Doesn't really matter though, based on the metrics of their population crash there's really no avoiding a massive economic crash for them. Even if they recovered in the next two years, in ten they'll still be in a crisis.
@@gregdobbs2577 WW3
Could happen, not would happen. After Russia flopped China may seriously reconsider risking taking Taiwan. Because they literally aren't ready to do that. Xi hoped that Putler distract US, but that clearly didn't happen. Invasion of Taiwan would not be artillery war.
Your commercials are unabashedly AFRTS stylistic. They give me flashbacks.
Great vid
it's unlikely that Taiwan's fabs would survive an invasion and it's ASML in Europe not TSMC who makes the lithography machines so china is unlikely to be able to seize that market. They could deny those chips to the west but not seize the market.
And war imposes huge costs. The reason for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan has always been political/emotional not economic.
Has the US put a military base on Taiwan yet?
feel like they really should.....
@@davidty2006 No, that would be about the worst thing we could do. Given that China claims that Taiwan is part of China (and that we participate in the ambiguity by not recognizing them as an independent nation) they would treat it like an invasion. Hell, before anything like that happened Taiwan would first probably need to vote to actually declare itself independent and I doubt they even want a us base at the moment.
I do think we should basically sell Taiwan whatever arms they want to buy so they can present an effective defense (at least until carriers etc arrive).
@Peter Gerdes I've been following the tensions since the start and the Taiwanese who oppose us is significantly lower then those who wish to remerge with China dictated entirely under china's terms.
If they were to place a vote and it wins by super majority and has no strong minority opposition, it would not only be a great honor to establish a base in Taiwan only to defend it but our responsibility to make sure the next Vietnam is closed before it ever opens
@Peter Gerdes You can only make a mistake like Ukraine once. If we don't address the growing threat of tyranny and dictatorship before it escalates, we may as well surrender now before more innocents blood is spilled in war
@@davidty2006 There is no need to, Japan has islands close to Taiwan. Japan is already reinforcing those islands and expanding their own military rapidly. If the US could create major bases there that would curb any incursion into the region and would even negate Taiwan entirely.
Glad to know production and supply chains are also clogged at the highest levels, I just thought it was little old us consumers where virtually anything can be out of stock any day, I never remember it like this, granted I'm only 38 but I distinctly remember going to any store or online site at any time and be able to order anything in my 20's, everything was in stock, amazing how we still can't seem to recover the supply chain from covid even after it's all over and behind us for quite some time now. What is going on?
For bulk production often times factories will produce goods with an expectation with orders of a certain rate and at a certain amount far in advance of when they'll be needed. It will take some time for those slower moving components of the economy to get started again
We have managed to increase artillery shell production five fold since the war began so its not as dire as some say, at least in the US, some other countries like the UK really destroyed their arms industry by lack of orders.
Very insightful report. One area to consider is how much of a factor the Taiwanese armed forces will be in the event of an invasion. Perhaps you’ve covered that in other videos, but would be interesting to understand. My guess is that they could inflict significant damage based on their current readiness ( and willingness to defend their home turf as we’ve seen in Ukraine), but they cannot win on their own. But perhaps their current readiness could delay an invasion in the short term. Is that a consideration? Great stuff, thank you.
@@robertojsucre6769 That depends. China doesn't have a very good invasion fleet, and while they are much closer to Taiwan than the US, it would still take something like six hours for them to reach the other side. As it stands, they have a powerful presence in paper, but lack what it really takes to occupy. Their best bet is in threatening Taiwan into submission, with their second best being to blast the island into rubble.
Not because you're 38. I'm a lot older than that, and I've seen strange shortages I never saw before.
5:44 HAHAHAHA That meme came from a Brazilian soap opera. Crazy to see how that became prominent everywhere. Yes, I am from Brazil and I watched that soap opera.
Love the video
Cappy, you put out good videos and crack me up doing it!
I love your content. Always getting new angles to my own thoughts
Mr. Anderson, what good is TSMC if you're unable to work with ASML?
By the way, out of tens of videos on this subject, yours is by far, one of few that is realistic.
It won't happen until after the Russian-Ukraine War is over. They need a third party through which they can continue trade (basically what Russia is doing now with help from China, India and Iran). They also need Northern security from Russia. Lastly, they need Russia to convince India not to ally with the USA against China. The Chinese invasion of Taiwan is highly dependent on the result of the current war in Europe.
No you're wrong China will invade Taiwan it's for their survival they can't wait they see the US is becoming stronger especially since the creation of the space force people don't take into account that the announcement of the space force is another factor for Russia and China to take the territory necessary in order to maintain their status
Russia will be in tatters after Ukraine. They will offer China a pretty weak partnership to go to war in the world.
The Chinese allying with India is highly unlikely ever since the border clashes between the two happened for the past 3 years. I don’t see India getting along with them anytime soon even if Russia tries to convince them not to ally with the US. They are more likely to help out the US in the military conflict as they’ve been conducting military operations exercises with the US along with the western powers.
I think you'll find the farmer is far less dependant on his livestock eating than the livestock's life experience tells them.
Long live a free and democratic Taiwan 🇹🇼
Taiwan isn't free and democratic.
How sizeable is the PLAs airassault airlift capacity? I recall in 2006 reports as to the increases in it then.
We have bases in the Philippines, and just added 3-4 more that should be operational within the next year. Couldn't we just use those as staging areas for fighters/bombers/drones, in concert with ACC's?
consistently some of the best content being presented on You Tube
Deeply insightful commentary. Really interesting perspective. Clearly required analysis and combination of issues I hadn't thought of. Thanks cappy.
He copied most of the argments from a Joe Rogan episode.
@@W1ZYJoe rogan copied cappy 💯
These analysis are superficial at its best. Any reasonable chinese leaders will prioritize economy and technology development over taking back Taiwan in the long run
@@fanxia9000 but Xinnie the Pooh is not reasonable. Lockdowns. Genocide. Not the signs of a reasonable mind.
The aforementioned nations above have spent primarily on “defensive” capabilities. Their ability to assist in “offensive” measures will be minimal.
Amazing presentation !!
This is the first Ridge Wallet ad I haven't skipped in years. Nice sketch.
Fantastic breakdown, Cappy. You really cover all the bases.
"Aghh a murder hornet!!"
"Dude thats a hummingbird!"
"Nah bras thats a switchblade drone and its likely the swarm scout."
Your editing skills on fleet bro
Although I don't disagree with you on many points, when "sand tabling" a Taiwanese invasion, everybody misses two important factors. The first, Taiwan has been planning for this war for 60 years, it will have to be an amphibious operation, a very difficult mission to pull off. A slow build up on the mainland will be seen by everyone. Tawain has been chided for developing a nuclear program by the UN many times. The 3 largest industrial cities on the mainland are in missile range. China has to factor in that potential loss against the gain of the Island. A quick invasion (get on anything that floats and move across the channel), we are talking about a 250K casualty count in that scenario. Additionally, don't fall into the trap that China has a "long history" or that it thinks long term. Chinese history is long but the overwhelming majority of it has been disjointed states and regions. It has only been in the last 70 years that China has been able to maintain some sort of uniformity. This is just a blip in history, an anomaly depended upon US Navy holding open the SLOCs and forcing all the Brettonwood accord members to "get along." No country is more dependent on globalization than China. After the first shot is fired, number one on the US Navy check list will be to stop tankers bound for China in the Indian Ocean (far away from where China can project power). Stay salty! AATW....
Dam, chat gpt really just takes everything it can find on a subject, doesn't verify if it's a fact or not and just mashes it together as best as possible for a word count.
All I can say is, we in America owe Ukraine a huge debt for warning us about our own military shortcomings. Most countries would kill to have advance warning about what modern warfare might look like.
But the problem is that the Ukraine War also gave China insights on waging modern warfare.
@@onlyfacts4999 Yeah it’s definitely a double edged sword. Russia has screwed up in Ukraine, but even they have a lot of experience the Chinese military lacks.
@@onlyfacts4999 but China haven’t fought any real war last 70 years
@@onlyfacts4999 Also Russia
Yea. The problem is seeing the lessons through to actual implementation of a plan. It's one thing to know what the problem is but quite another to fix it.
Several factors make for an unpredictable future: 1. In the medium-term, China must surely being looking over its shoulder at India, its growth, and the aggressive nationalism of Modi and possible successors. 2. What might another populist 'America-first, America-only' presidency mean, especially if the USA's internal stability is threatened by January 6th-type events on a much more ambitious scale? China would benefit. 3. What might become of the Putin regime, and how might that impact China's energy supplies? 4. In the case of some kind of decisive victory by Ukrainian forces, this would bolster Taiwan's morale and sow doubts in China's military.
Thank you. Well done !
Cool analysis ! And I like your presentation style!
Thank you for the hard work, guys 💯
Pretty sure that's a British aircraft carrier, despite the fact those are F-35s. Notice the two towers and elevated take-off ramp. (15:01)
One thing that is usually oversimplified about the One Child Policy is that birthrates fell from really high in the 60s, like 7 or 8 or something, to nearly replacement level by the 70s. So the "problem" that it was meant to fix had basically already solved itself, so it's effect was more the male baby favoritism than a future population shock. The scary thing to thing about, making the big assumption that the dictator is psychotic, is that one of the reasons that population growth in the 50s and 60s was so huge was that maybe super-traumatic events like WW2 act more as population trampolines than depressors. Every country deeply involved in WW2 had a baby boom generation...
And one thing often ignored about Taiwan is that the indigenous peoples of Taiwan speak languages in the Polynesian language family. Apparently the most in number and diversity of Polynesian languages, making Taiwan the likely origin of the Polynesian peoples. If the CCP were to obtain Taiwan, and if they interpreted the One China Policy in Taiwan the same as they interpret it in Tibet, it would probably mean putting a claim on all of Polynesia..
China needed captain hindsight
The problems are that they now don't have enough young people in the workforce to support the aging population, the workforce being skewed toward business and service sectors and away from other important needs (farming, etc.), people wanting to become filthy rich and not having kids that distract from their career ambitions, the lack of women of child-bearing age and their preference to be independent and not have children, men not wanting single women older than 32, etc. Kids from the One Child Policy era have grown up very spoiled because their parents put all their resources into ensuring the success of their future carer, so these Little Emperors/Empresses can't be inconvenienced to raise kids themselves. The new generation now must become independently wealthy if they have no kids to take care of them after retirement.
Curious to know how the recent info on china's military affect this scenario.
What an inevitable mess for all 3 countries. I’m glad you mentioned Xi’s age because at 70, there’s really a sense of urgency lingering for them
Correction. China's population isn't declining in 2025. China's population has already peaked in 2021 and declined in 2022 (according to official statistics). This is 3 years earlier than expected.
What is your source of information?
That's assuming if it wants to invade Taiwan. Most tacticians view that China wants to invade Taiwan. Which is false.
The right way to view it is that China doesn't want Taiwan to declare independence because once it does it can officially host foreign army bases.
So how does China prevent declarations of independence? They make it so that the threat of conflict is on the table and that it is very expensive for Taiwan to consider it. China doesn't actually need to win, they just need to make it such a costly decision for both sides that neither side wants to do it.
When you view it from that angle. China doesn't need to win its invasion. Time is not running out.
The US, Japan, and South Korea just concluded an expansion of economic and security between the three nations.