Tesla Bombshells: Tom Zhu, DOJO, Tesla Bot, Giga Argentina, Morgan Stanley
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- čas přidán 5. 05. 2024
- Jeff Lutz is an ex Supply Chain C-Level Exec at several Fortune 100 companies like Google, Lenovo and Motorola. Currently running his own consulting firm.
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Herbert
Argentina would make very good sense. More than India.
From Argentina we will have access to all of South America, bar Brazil. Mexico will be pissed but we can give a Giga factory just not until they develop ALL the inftastructure.
Argentina needs massive investment and will lay down the red and indeed the golden carpet for Tesla.
Zero coropration tax for 20 yrs.Fully expensed right-off of all capital investments.
Government land sold at dirt cheap prices. Argentina has a well educated workforce but not a good automotive industry like Mexico. Maybe the supply chain for Tesla Mexico will supply Tesla Agentina. Argentuna will remove or greatly reduce any and all import duties for components shipped from Mexico or other parts of the world.
Argentina also has mineral resources and mining companies willing to supply Tesla. So copper, aluminium and maybe lithium. So Tesla could partner with some of them with some Goverment help😊.
I think this is not just a car play it is a battery, battery pack and Mega Pack and solar play for new home development. Thus reducing the cost of renrwable energy and prices for 🇦🇷 and other S. American countries.
Jeff is the best retail analyst by far.
Thanks 🙏
One of them and I agree :)
By miles.
Just wears ridiculous glasses
@@michaelholmes8848 🤣 🤓
Thank you, Herbert! Jeff is a goldmine of experience and practical knowledge
Is everything that happens at Tesla a bombshell? Makes me wonder, what is a bombshell?
Bombshells have been seriously downgraded in value
Like all those “Goddesses” on the sec sites.
Yes, it used to be SHOCKING!
It's called clickbait
They are using nonlethal weapons.
Why does everyone ignore that when bot made correction it put the battery in upside down?
Argentina has huge lithium deposits. But it's not an FTA country so whatever the deal, they won't be shipping to the US. No IRA kickbacks.
With the Mexico plant in limbo this is interesting. Would a Argentina plant get built first? That would tick off some south of the border.
Venezuela? 🤣
@@jrsands oops
You are only thinking US….Argentina will produce batteries for mega packs and cars for the South American market. Of course it will also produce mega packs and BEV cars, most likely Tesla’s, but it wouldn’t necessarily have to be. (China will be a competitor in this region).
South America is 5000 miles long and has a population of 422 million. I think 2 gigafactories makes sense, especially for next gen model
It takes 2 to Tango! Let’s go Argentina!🇦🇷
Elon has said before that tesla will build at least one Gigafactory in each continent. Argentina + Chile ?
Africa, Antarctica?
You guys never talk about it, and Herbert seems to think procurement of chips = puts them in production. I have designed data centers since they went from batch to continuous and since. Data centers don't spring up over night. And, you don't put your eggs in one basket -some have but it is more time consuming and costly to do that. Large data centers, 50+MW, would exacerbate the power transformer issue. Contrary to what Elon has said and everyone else has extrapolated, there is no huge transformer shortfall. 50MW and below are still readily available (none of these are off the shelf, but reasonable lead times that would not be the gating factor for a data center. If you want to build a huge data center, then you are into the large power transformer realm. These have always had 1.5 -2 year lead times. They are extremely complex to engineer and build, needing a massive factory.
Tesla announced a new data center for Buffalo, but did not say if they had acquired one (which would probably need to be upgraded with these types of processors or if it was greenfield. BTW, Buffalo has access to cheap Canadian hydro power from Ontario and Quebec hydro, so they are probably negotiating a direct contract with them. Rumors have been around that they are building one in Austin. They must certainly already have one in Austin to do the amount of training that they have done to date. But scaling up another 50,000 or so processors will be a pretty significant. Herbert mentioned that the chip alone had over 50KW of just heat to blow off meaning the chip draws more than that. Then you have to add a lot of ancillary processors, memory, comms, busses, power supplies (converting from the AC input voltage to the DC bus voltage) etc and you can probably double that. That is just for the rack or a small cluster of racks. So now you are at 100Kw, *50k and you are at 5GW of power. Now you have to add the rest of the data center equipment. Going upstream you have smaller distribution transfomers stepping down from 480V to usable levels for the power of the power supplies, static switches to switch instantaneously between two sources, then UPS systems, and then back out to the substation. And then add in all of that cooling, So, you are at least doubling the amount of power again, needed from the grid. All of these systems have to have N+2 redundancy. You cannot interrupt power to the processors for more than about 1.6ms, and cannot interrupt cooling longer than a few minutes. So, now you may be in the range of 20GW for 50K processors. You won't want to put all of that in one place for many reasons, so I would assume they are looking at building 4-5 data centers. All of this has lead times. It is also a huge capex. Tesla knows all this, and though not sharing it, have to have ordered most of this equipment and are on some timeline of building sites. Another thing that these Tesla centric channels have not take into account when Elon said they were spending $10B is the amount of that which must go to taking the chip from a raw chip to rack to data center. Everyone just divvies the dollars up between the chips in the car and either dojo or Nvidia chips, but you have a huge capex to go from buying the chip to having it in a working data center.
I believe it's 15kw of heat, not 50.
What would we do without Jeff and your daily updates? Thanks Herbert and Jeff!
What is happening with the global Supercharger rollout? I have seen news that a site in Australia has been cancelled.
It’s slowing down while some changes in the team still don’t know .
I bought shares yesterday, I nearly doubled my stake, thank God. I thank Reuter's etc for the fud lately as it looks like it brought the shares down to 170 odd just before I bought. Saved me a lot of money 😊
Tom Zhu has important tasks in Giga Shanghai:
1) FSD & cybertaxis rollout in China
2) Cheaper model 3s & Ys ahead of Tesla US$25K vehicles.
love these guys - super intelligent and super consistent high-quality presentations!
Argentina has best quality lithium but very little mining, maybe abour lithium mining, refining or battery production?
Thanks Herbert for the great news, but a special thanks to Jeff today, that he has been more than brilliant to clarify and make most understand what is really going on with Tesla Jaggernaught.
Great channel 🙌🙌
Nvidia will give Tesla as many H100 as they can - it’s in nvidia’s interest. If/when Tesla proves this reaches autonomous driving - nvidia will be as big of a winner as Tesla (maybe short term bigger) because EVERY company that can afford it will build (or lease) their compute to imitate Tesla - and unlike Tesla their only option would be nvidia chips - so if there’s someone besides Tesla/investors that wants to see FSD successful - it is Nvidia!
I might need a spreadsheet soon to keep track of all this news lol
I think Tom move to china is less to do with Model Y refresh and more to do with FSD, robotaxi and Megapacks. Assuming Tesla can get compute in China, China will be the first volume Robotaxi release. For all the negative press on China, they do have the ability to do things fast and to all pull in the same direction. Much of what China supports is evidence based, and they are less litigious. Imagine the benefits of robotaxis in clogged Chinese mega cities....
Have you ever driven in China? It’s chaos, it’s going to be a long time before there are fully autonomous cars there.
Drove V12 today for the first time...impressive, but nowhere near ready for prime time.
Argentina needs to "Dollarize", which Milei has committed too...because their currency is AWFUL !!
A lot of companies have gotten burned in "old" Argentina...
Milei is breath of Fresh Air......I support him 100% !!!
Bedankt
I get the impression that the manufacturing infrastructure is much more mature with the ability to ramp up quickly compared to Giga Mexico, which is starting from ground zero for roads, supplying power, utilities, housing, regulations ...😅
A possible wake-up call for Giga Factory candidates 😢
great theory. replace human but also task specific robots too!
@ 7:20 ever seen the ABB Robotics Pickmaster? 25 times faster then the Optimus thingy
You don't need the whole body, just one arm!
Costs? One arm against a whole robot.
Programming? One arm against a whole robot.
How Ridiculous!
Speed of Optimus for this pick and place task could increase just by making the bot use both its hands rather than lazily have the left arm hanging .
Imagine the coming future, there will be robot version updates every 2 years like your mobile phone... there will definitely be millions of robots, but no infrastructure to disassemble and recycle the discarded robots, let alone any infrastructure to disassemble EV cars. Which with these battery packs and higher quality of building materials including many additional circuit boards compared to petrol vehicles.
We should probably address the issue before it becomes one.
Search for "Redwood Materials"
I don't know what you have been watching.
We have battery recyclement, we can remove the battery from the car. And otherwise, EVs don't have more electronics than any modern vehicle.
From 20m cars a years down to 5m a year in 2030…. That’s quite a drop from what was discussed… WS is not going to like that…
I think Argentina is very plausible simply because of the major economic changes there, a great impact and influence on the rest of latin america could take root and after all the issues in Brazil, Mexico this makes a lot of sense.
Tom hasn’t achieved a lot in his Global role. Jeff is on the mark about a focus on China and the cheaper car and RoboTaxi. Tom is the right person to lead this!
Optimus is 2 years from direct sales/ leasing to factories. I am not sure there is anything else to say. Tremendous potential value.
Argentina has battery raw materials and is very industrious. It is a great place to do business.
LOVE JEFF 💪❤
Tesla announced previously that Tom Zhu was only in Fremont to help with the Model 3 refresh tooling.
25:00 "...data needed...": The most valuable data now is near miss and accident data. If you're throwing away peripheral vision you'll find you don't have what you need to recreate the incident. You're also going to have a higher probability of incidents at things like cross streets and access points and curves and hills. You'll want the cars to have "black boxes" like flight recorders collecting and holding data for such incidents... kind of like an oscilloscope capturing sample data and writing over it in a loop so if a glitch comes up you can analyze it. But when they're one in a million shots, you can't be sending all that data home. From here on out it will be AI training AI... and AI analyzing the black boxes.
25:30 "... Tesla bought xxx # of processors...": What I'm surprised with is the lack of information automatically collected from drivers. If it existed, Tesla would have an app where a driver could be graded by the FSD and played back to the driver at a later time to improve his skills. Why haven't we seen this? I would have wanted it from the moment my car had even minimal FSD capability. I would then be happy to feedback to Tesla where I disagree with the advice FSD is giving me.
❤ jeff
Money is not meant to control people rather it is meant to be put to work producing more money for you. You cannot build wealth without putting money in its rightful place.
People don't understand that the prices of things are never going back down. This inflation is deeper than we think. Those buying groceries are well aware that the real inflation is much over 10%. The increments don't match our income, yet certain investors still earn over $365,000 in stocks and assets. Wish I could accomplish that.
Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.
Having an investment advisor is the best way to go about the stock market right now. I was going solo, but it wasn't working. I've been in touch with an advisor for a while now, and just last year, I made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things
Jeff demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit
Great guest
South America currency value is way down there. The revenue would be low converted in US $ .Good for export and sustainability.
Great explanation, Jeff
Tesla needs a less expensive car. It was a bad choice to do the cybertruck first.
You should email Elon.
With Argentina's rampant inflation doesn't that make their economic stability uncertain, it would certainly weigh on any decision to invest in a plant or factory there. Plus as I understand overland transportation (roads and highways) for the South American continent is not well developed. Perhaps Brazil would be a better choice? Brazil is the largest country in SA, geographically better positioned to deliver goods to SA countries. They are part of BRIC which could be advantageous ....
Just my speculation and fodder for further discussion
Milei has brought inflation down from 25% in December to 2.5% in April because of his monetary policies and slashing government spending. Argentina is becoming the Texas of South America, which is what's attracting Elon. And Argentina can easily export to Brazil.
Brazil is ruled by hostile judicial dictator. The Brazilian people need to take back their government before elon will invest there
I believe Argentina is also in BRIC.
@@thomasaquinas157 I do wish the Argentinians the best with turning around their country, Milei must be half crazy to run for the position in the first place. Is he still talking about puttting his country on the USD?
@@plasmacoilzno they are not
Analyst and reporters. Don’t want to test it. It’s easier to produce FUD and hat way. There are millions of Tesla’s out there. Certainly they have one friend who drives a tesla. They could have tested it any time last month.
Havier gives me hope for S. America and the world.
Jeff such a wealth of Knowledge.....and when speaking he always keeps it interesting Thank you Herbert and Jeff
Will Optimus be building the new generation 25k Tesla car?
Jeff still rocking nans glasses.
Man o man! Please, Tesla make me a Dojo Desktop Computer!
Lots of my minerals in n Argentina and cheap labor.
The FSD opportunity in China warrants having Elon's top lieutenant on the job.
Thank you guys for all the excellent information.😊
Argentina president and Musk will headline Milken Global Conference on topic of AI. Might explain meetings rather than new Tesla factory . Peace
Why is Optimus only every using one hand?
Stroke
I wish i could push the "like" button more than once
I think SpaceX has been landing rockets more than 5 years and no other company or country can match that. Same will happen to robo taxi, Elon steps on the gas when he see the light at the end of the tunnel!
So humanoid robots are more AGILE?
More easily repurposed, and can perform an almost infinite variety of tasks.
Be careful you may be replaced
Argentina is already making some small EVs called volt motors strange looking. Micro car
Argentina meeting might concern Lithium mining especially if Argentina could close free trade treaty with U.S. thus qualifying its Lithium for U.S. IRA.
Have you considered that Tom Zhu may want to return to China. There is definitely a culture shock between China and the US.
Tom Zhu was living in New Zealand
Like there’s no Chinatown in Austin.
@alancane1482 That's not how things work... you should be good to move to any U.S. city then with no plan to return home. Also, U.S. Chinatowns are majority Cantonese representation, not mainland China language/culture
@@thomasreese2816 Nevertheless Zhu can fly to China anytime he wants
Urgent and important. Elon style.
Europe just reported very low sales for Tesla in April. Next time Jeff is on, can you ask him why that might be the case? He was citing supply chain problems for low deliveries in Q1 (Red Sea, etc.).
So far I’ve just seen Germany data not all of europe. If you have all of April Europe please share a link.
The supply timing issues in Q1 were non - domestic (non German) countries (supply they build and put onto boats and rail). Much of that should be hitting in April and May
168 h in a week, 8 hours to recharge, and 4X human productivity left of s human ( no breaks, insurance,salary,pregnancy,vacation, sick days, retirement fund,injuries,racism,arrasment, union fees etc) so it can be 4 times slower then a human and still beat them.
Are the bots replacing the jobs???
Not yet but they will. Point I was making was they will also replace a lot of existing capex too which is underrated
I think Elon said that they have 5000 booths in gigs Mexico. Maybe that is why Mexico is stalling. Or maybe it should be called Giga Argentina 😊
And China have much less red tap if at all
Communism not so bad after all, I guess.
You know you know on and on!
Just like Tacha at ark.
Good show otherwise Herb.
My immediate first thought on 8/8 was the China connection. I'm thinking China paves the way for global FSD, let the FOMO begin 🎉
Jeff please trade in your piece for a decent pair of glasses
ii believe there's another head behind him, (a twin brother 😮?)
He has got the style.
Best leather chair
Best background
Best glasses
Always the best microphone quality 🎤
Best cyber 🐮 🎯
GREAT video! Tesla is on fire. Lets go!
Tesla is one of nvidia's biggest customers. Tesla dont need to sell dogo for it to be seen as compitition for that business, those sales.
Jeff, your poor plant behind you needs transplanting. Plant like that needs good drainage
Thanks but it’s not real 😊
Giga Mexico never happened (yet) let alone Argentina that is always in a sovereign debt crises. Elon is not going to bail out Argentina, let alone China. The risk of them defaulting on you is too great.
Optimist left arm must be broken.
You have to understand that for Dojo the bitness quite relevant. This is not geneneric all purpose GPUs . Hope this reply gets ignored.
Will the last person to leave Tesla please turn off the lights.
FSD has improved so much that auto pilot on the highway is very sloppy in comparison. When will we see FSD operating on the highway?
Highway is perfect for me, and I've logged over 2000 miles. I am experiencing trouble at a particular exit, however.
In regards to the robot shown placing batteries in the box, I think repetitive action like that, would be a learning focus two enhance the speed, as the robot learns the task, as a human would.
This of course would be dependent on the speed and acceleration capability of the mechanicals..
But the driven miles need to be good quality driving. Would someone drunk driving is of any use. Who will sort the good driving from the bad driving?
Tesla already has since a long time a monitoring system of driving behavior. A so called "safety score". Initially only drivers with a high safety score got the FSD beta software.
Imagine FSD. Zero drunk driving zero d😅strayed driving / on your phone , zero cutting corners to short. Zero run red lights. Face it people are STUPID. Operator error eliminated hundred times safer I drive across town in 5 miles I see twenty things FSD. Would not do. Sit at light behind some fool on phone … never say anything unless you have driven FSD !
What would happen To MADD. FSD means never having a drunk driver.
China and rest of world are two systems. Best manager for the Chinese market is not the best guy to manage rest of world. Need two separate guys to manage two systems.
..
Dojo is a sleeper for sure. Looking forward to hearing more about it. Probably on 8/8
You need a driver license to have a car moving. Can smart summon be done with today’s law or would the car be viewed as a rogue possible deadly weapon ?
Too many bombshells explain why Tesla is now bombed out and is in chaos
Creative destruction
Stop listening to the lying liars
Love guys like you short the stock. This is the future. Stick your head in sand get corded phone
Should also be noted that chile, brasil and Mexico have some of the highest birthrates among western nations.
Enough with the clickbait bombshell titles please.
Lol still maintaining the grift, even though the house is burning down
Cope bruh.
That 100 billion miles per year number is BS. Even if Tesla had 10,000,000 cars on the road, that would imply 100,000 miles per year per car.
He who lives by the Spreadsheet, Dies by the Spreadsheet
Wrong! 10,000,000 x 1000 = 10 billion x 10 = 100 billion so it’s 10,000 miles per car
Is this guy Tesla propagandist, all he does is pump day and night? Is he paid to do so?? I don't trust 1 word from his mouth.
Zhu was just demoted because he was homesick. We can't make real Chinese food here in the USA.
Jeff has to shave his head. Can’t look at his wig like hairdo
The robots are taking over all those jobs..keep buying..
Tom Zhu has important tasks in Giga Shanghai:
1) FSD & cybertaxis rollout in China
2) Cheaper model 3s & Ys ahead of Tesla US$25K vehicles.