Inflation or Deflation? | ITK with Cathie Wood
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- čas přidán 24. 07. 2024
- On episode XXIX of "In the Know," (May 20, 2022) ARK CEO/CIO, Cathie Wood, is joined by Nancy Lazar, Piper Sandler's Chief Global Economist. Together, Wood and Lazar, weigh in on inflation, deflation, interest rates, inventories, business confidence, bond yields, and more. As always, they also discuss fiscal policy, monetary policy, market signals, economic indicators, and innovation. We hope you find this monthly series useful, especially during periods of heightened volatility. Stay Healthy. Stay Innovative.
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Summary that I took away from this video:
1. Due to surplus of inventories, big companies such as Target, Walmart, and Home Depot are going to try to get rid of their inventories by adjusting their prices (e.g. sales). So we can expect this to contribute to deflationary in the near future.
2. USD has strengthen by 15%, which is a big inflation protector.
3. Used cars values are going to come down as mentioned several times in the previous weeks videos as well.
4. Bonds market interest rate are going down (prediction with R2 score of 95%), but the stock market hasn't understood that or realized that yet. So we can expect the equity market coming back up in the near future.
5. Cathie is expecting that the equity that are going back up will be the growth stocks, instead of the value stocks like back in 2020-2021.
6. Both of the speakers think that the Feds are making a mistake by tightening up the market too much, because the economics outlook isn't doing so well (high energy prices, low spending, and low consumer confidence)
7. Cathies thinks automation is going to play a big part of bringing manufacturing back to USA, it's going to benefit the USA greatly but will hurt the other countries greatly as well.
8. As mentioned in most of the ITK videos with Cathie, Cathie still stands firm on ARK's point of view on the disruptive technology and innovation.
And, yet, further to your point #7, the shipping ports of California have been ranked among the lowest in the world. That's according to an article by FrieghtWaves just days ago. Biden's Build-Back-Better plan is a failure. They are light years away from getting any automation. I'm sorry, but I'm afraid she's talking out of her butt.
Thanks. You saved thirty minutes of my life.
I got from it that WMT will have to protect their margins, and raise prices more. After a horrific year+ Cathie is talking up her book. And the market.
And WMT has been claiming "new lower prices since the beginning of time. Like TGT, etc.
Thanks for the concise summary!
Thank you. You have been consistent about inventories for the past year and this week proved it.
I for one really, really appreciate these kinds of talks getting put up on CZcams. Thank you Cathie.
are they worth 75% of your investment portfolio?
@@davidanalyst671 yes
@@davidanalyst671 What?
@@davidanalyst671 stop buying high.
I am so glad you posted a second video this month!!
Thanks Cathie! Always informative! Staying strong, investing long!
What a great surprise to wake up to a special video of you Cathie and an another expert subject matter discussing economic activities, inflation and deflation. In times of turbulence and many" experts" out there pushing the wrong rhetoric, this is reassuring for sure. Thank you!
So happy you are making videos!
Thank you, you made it simple, plan, and, even common people could understand
Thank you for giving us updates and sharing all of ARKs research in the past few weeks on CZcams.
good luck to anyone still following this strategy
Brilliant, as usual. When I heard about the Target and Walmart inventories, I immediately thought of you, Cathie. Thank you for these highly informative updates, keeping us one step ahead.
Yeah
Terrific advice! Thank you
Lmfao ARK is Sinking due to incompetence of Over rated Leader
Great insights Nancy and Cathie. Thank you!
I am literally typing this in a mall parking lot. EVERY business has signs asking for help. We couldn't get food at Panda Express or a sandwich shop because they closed early. Both restaurants had signs on their doors saying they closed early because of lack of supplies! This is insane!
what part of the US are you?
Thanks Cathy for the taking the time as always
Best discussion on macro trends! Thank you for sharing! 😊
This extra update is much appreciated considering the difficult environment we go through these days
Excellent interview !Thank You for meticulous impeccable work
My most looked forward to podcast!
Such a great video! Two incredibly intelligent women. I could listen to you both discuss anything and everything all day long. I love this point of view, I agree with this outlook and I can’t wait until it all comes to fruition. I know you’ll stay humble when it’s proven you were right the entire time.😍
Great video! Thanks Cathie & Nancy. From a manufacturing disruption point of view, which companies will likely disrupt Cisco in the long run?
Thank you for sharing. Thank you for your work. I know that these are turbulent times but I truly think that on the long run you will be Wright
Love your conviction Cathie. I always look forward to your videos.
Interesting. Thank you ladies for sharing your knowledge and perspective. It is appreciated 🙏
Excellent! Love hearing Nancy!!
Always, a pleasure to listen to Cathie. Thank you!!!
Thanks for the update Cath!
Isn’t this the same lady who thought Bitcoin was going to a million dollars and Tesla to 5,000 😂😂😂
Great Video! I love the data on inventories and the perspective of deflation. Hopefully by this Q3 we'll see some sort of bottoming and end of this year will be back to a bull market.
Thanks Cathie and Nancy. Very informative session. I listen 3 times.
Thank you for the great insight i.e. elaborating on factors contributing to deflationary pressure, two big question marks remain:
1. high energy prices? (slow pace of transformation to renewables, Ukraine conflict, lower domestic oil & gas output)
2. do you see re-shoring of supply chains really happen that quickly?
Thanks for the insights Cathie and Nancy!
thanks for sharing kathie. stay strong in these tough times
Thank you for taking the time to make this video. Much appreciated. Love your work.
Wonderful points. Thank you Cathie 😊
Thank you, Cathie. I didn’t expect this information but it was very useful. It would also be good to invite someone with an opposite view about inflation to understand why they think differently.
Peter Schiff vs. Cathie wood. Thing is, she would never do that. She only goes on CNBC and gets soft ball questions
Well said! I am also here to learn more genuine ways on short term investment, any idea here?
Quality content.. Thanks Mrs. Woods and ark..
This was great. Very practical, to the point approach & data
So that will take a year or two to work through the system and balance out ....?
Thank you Cathie and Nancy. I really appreciate the insights you shared in this video. I'm going to watch a second time to make sure I didn't miss anything!
Thank you so much for the ITK series, it provides an understandable view and breakdown of the various economic indices, and the scenarios that may arise from these indices and continuity into the future.
Thanks for this insight! I’m holding (not panicking) and have cash to buy. This is clear and helps me to navigate.
Oh nice surprise, these are usually at the beginning of the month. I appreciate this mid month update Cathie
Great guest. Thanks Cathie!
*this is fine* dog meme
Very clear and compelling explanations. Thank you Nancy and Cathy.
Tim from Toronto, Canada
Thank you for this; you've given me hope where I had little in supply.
I anxiously await our next episode(s) ~
Nice confirmation bias
Always amazing analysis
It's interesting to listen to Cathy. Her view on inflation is baffling in the sense that it disregards the money supply issues through asset purchases by the FED. And as we know inflation is a monetary phenomenon.
She's a good example of a finance person who doesn't understand monetary policy.
Where are you seeing Target 'marking down prices?' I watch it closely and my stores are all still increasing prices. And many shelves are still not well stocked.
Very insightful analysis as usual. The video editing is all over the place in this episode.
Hi Katy! I would love to hear from you guys your reasoning of having as Roku as top holding compared to Tesla. Thanks!
Affordability
I appreciate Cathie’s vision about technology improving the world as a whole. And is hearten that it is an ultimately optimistic outlook and the belief in the goodness of the world.
Still, we should be aware of the huge disruptions that big changes causes to those who are less privileged and less empowered. A huge percentage of the world live in non-developed nations with our high tech aids to life. It is good to remember the costs that the less developed people suffer in our drive to innovate. May those more fortunate remember the human faces at the bottom and help them in as many ways as they can.
Great webcast!!!!
Interesting and insightful as usual
So you predict recession on the one hand and equity bull market on the other? Someone square that circle for me please?
Thanks for posting Cathie!
Thanks for the update Cathie.
I get the inventories. But what about the oil, wheat and other rising comomodeties prices? Wouldnˋt the keep the pressure on inflation high?
Just like in 2000. 2008. Commodity prices rose before the collapse , we have had divergence on weekly time frames in almost all sectors and now also in commodoties / oil. The deflationary collapse wont help ARKK , new leaders of course will arise, ARKK is history accept it
@@opa1966saa Wrong. I guarantee a few years from now, ARK will be back putting up strong returns.
@@OralCareRoutine when this happens people will say "look ark is best invest now!!!"
Then she goes down and they say "haha, what a garbage I bought, sell now"
Then ppl wonder why 90% of ppl lose money. And YET retailer does the same thing over and over again
Although I disagree with many of your positions, I do greatly admire your ongoing communication efforts and your thoughts. If only our country had a long-term plan and leaders had such a great style. IMO, asset bubbles need to be deflated. Remember, when Obama took office in 2009, the S&P was at 1000 and the Dow 8750, as a reference as we wonder how deep a correction could be at bottom. Massive debts will be the global trigger to defaults and deflation. China, Russia, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Argentina, are collapsing already. Increasing US Fed rates equates to zombie companies failing, highly leveraged companies hurting, profits being squeezed, stalled projects/growth, and slowing of sales. Food, energy, Rents, and labor Inflation will be sticky. Real estate (regional) takes time to correct but will with rate hikes. I think 'low leveraged' profitable Cannabis companies may recover in stock price (like YOURF), since they represent cash transaction based high sales growth in comparison to technology growth that has a long waiting timeline that depresses PEs as rates increase. I disagree on CISCO, ... Edge computing is forecasted to grow big time as IOTs grow and data needs to be closer to decentralized applications and sensors. The trend is from all public cloud to Hybrid clouds (mix of public and on-prem clouds & edge). Remember, the cloud isn't magic, it's enabled by CISCO products primarily (hardware/software). The reduced forecast for CISCO could be based on chip shortages and their forecast of a recession.
Great analysis. Thank you😀
one of your best videos
This is the best time to research the potential for exponential growth companies because the market is selling them for cheap
Would you mind adding links for things like Nancy's charts?
That's also a really awkward slide to shove in at 37:00.
Such a great and informative video! Thank you
Great video, thank you!
Cathie what's up with the Roku position?
I've only started investing a year ago and i've learned so much. thank you for these video discussions
dude she is a snake oil salesman , don't invest in her funds. She has out right lied and misled in many of her in the know videos
Cathy What about inflation expectations fueling more inflation?
Excellent overview of inflation economics.
Thanks for the update
Excellent content. Thank you
The video cuts prematurely towards the end at 37min
Great info, thank you!
so interesting as always!! great Kathy
What is Roku disrupting?
Cathie Woods is the best!!! Love listening to her speak!
Best at losing money
Would the lack of liquidity in the banking system force lower prices to create cash flow?
Well said and well researched
Looking forward to the future!
Thank you for the clear analyses. Our situation is quite historically unique, and it’s difficult for even experienced professionals to understand the dynamics.
"Ask five economists and you'll get five different answers - six if one went to Harvard."
- Edgar Fielder
Hyperinflation is coming, and will completely destroy America.
America: 1776 - 2020 🇺🇲
Waiting for this this whole week has been painful
Thank you 🙏🏽💎 Encouraging to hear these updates.
Great information!
It's great to know your perspective. Thanks for the vid.
Super interesting conversation Cathie. You really have met and mixed with amazing people during your career. Those charts Nancy created do visualise much of the issues you've been talking about these past months beautifully. Thank you for putting this presentation together on CZcams.
Great as usual - more expert, contextualized insight and less groupthink pablum than seen on standard media like Bloomberg or CNBC - but having Nancy Lazar join is a special treat.
excellent as forecasted
How do we follow Macy? Great stuff!
Great incite! I've been getting worried about my Tesla stock. This information helps me be patient.
Thanks sooo much for this words of wisdom.
is that pink vase a symbol for a bubble?
Thanks for everything!
Really informative discussion
I really appreciate the graphs, the data is persuasive. Growth stocks are likely near bottom if this thesis is proven out. May CPI may still disappoint but bullish on June CPI.
Cathy last comments about inflation before Nancy spoke were edited by u tube.I did not hear them
Great times of opportunity in the long Term?
Thank you for sharing your research and analyses freely to us
Is the background real or a wall paper. I could use that for my zoom. looks nice
Incredibly informative
Thoughts on how your camp compares to Jeremy Grantham?
I'm not quite sure if s.o. was doing "construction" there in the background of Nancy's.