AI godfather Hinton sees ‘50-50’ chance AI is smarter than humans in 20 years.
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- čas přidán 15. 06. 2024
- I sat down with the godfather of AI Geoffrey Hinton, who believes there is a ‘50-50’ chance artificial intelligence will be smarter than humans within 20 years. #ai #artificialintelligence #google #openai #elonmusk #technology
50/50 in 20 years... Wtf is he smoking.. in 5 years max...
More like 20 months
That sounds about right...
Definitely no more than that and probably considerably less like 10-12 months we’ll be looking at something absolutely mind blowing.
Failing predictions has become a formula in this subject. So let's stop guessing in multiples of five, please. Most generative AI is smarter than most people I know , and I need to include coders too😢
This is much closer to the reality, yes. 20 years is absurdly fucking conservative. Anyone who believes 20 years is an idiot.
I use various AI to do 90% of the job of 5 different professionals. It comes down to the prompt series.
So, I'd say ChatGPT4o is already smarter than most people.
For context, Geoffrey Hinton was conservative about AI. So when he says things like this, it's actually pretty remarkable. And he's talking about superintelligence here, not just AI that is as smart as us.
It isn't called super intelligence for nothing. 20 years is a heluva stretch simply because it's literally already here. It will be fully here and imposed by 2030
When I hear Sam Altman’s voice I can only think: he’s a humanoid robot, created by AI. It created it’s own CEO to take over the world. 😂
Robots don't use that much vocal fry.
You must be joking. 20-years? There are only 4-5 benchmarks left that people perform better on that the best LLM's today. You can argue about the level of reasoning ability and when that benchmark may surpass us, but the majority of the journey is already complete.
The last 10% sometimes takes more than the first 90%, my estimate is closer to 5 years but you can't make a prediction solely based on number of benchmarks left.
the hype bubble is popping
LLM intelligence will probably taper off, in my opinion. But other developments, like he said, will help advancement
Digital world is different than natural world..
@@dustinbreithaupt9331how can it be a bubble if it works
50-50 chance. Wow. Took him a lot of time for sure to come up with such a nuanced estimate.
20 years? 😂
He said superintelligence in 20 years. The title is wrong
@@Gallowglass7 I mean "superintelligence" is AI smarter than humans
@@ahabkapitany You're right. I read the title wrong
@@ahabkapitanyNo. It doesn’t mean slightly better it means magnitudes better.
@@mikezooper No. "Super" literally means "above". Superintellignece is intelligence that is above humans' in every domain.
Yes SkyNet perhaps ought to be thought very thoroughly before deploying; though if you lag or delay China will progress further then you
The real question is - Do we want control?
20 years!
More like before the end of this decade.
I guess he wanted to say 20 months.
No.
Lol within a year…
just 2 more weeks
@@ahabkapitany😂
Let’s assume there’s multiple Manhattan Projects occurring in this field, and that 20 years is probably more like 3-5-7 years depending on what systems it’s allowed to interface with.
Let’s also keep in mind that they were able to split an atom in 1942 and who knows how much further along things are than the average citizen knows about.
Creating and designing intelligence, not only equal to human intelligence, but superior, is several magnitudes more complicated than creating an atomic bomb.
I think we sre running towards a cliff with blindfolds, and the closer we get the more amazing rewarding payoffs we will get, then one day without warning we will run off the cliff, and there is no parachute.
Was the ego chair truly necessary? lol
I probably would have gotten more insightful answers if I just asked ChatGPT the same questions.
I briefly shared an office with Prof. Hinton. Listen. Read Bostrom. Read Russell. Act Now!
Human arrogance has always been and will always be its undoing.
Open AI promised 20 percent, I don't think they even got 2 lol. They were never promised when they would get that 20 percent.
Ok, say you've got AI that's smarter than us. As someone who's had to deal with lots of stupid people, don't underestimate the stupid.
It already is and it's not even AI yet
Excellent, curt interview.
this is the real headline from Hinton, the godfather of AI:
1:49 "most of the researchers I know are fairly confident it [AI] will get more intelligent than us. so the real question is how long will that take, and when it does, will we still be able to keep control...."
will we still be able to keep control?
3.02 "how many examples can you tell me about where a more intelligent thing is controlled by a less intelligent thing--not a long list.... basically a mother and baby is the only example I can think of. and evolution put huge amounts of work into allowing the baby to control the mother she made. Evolution made the sound of a baby crying just intolerable for the mother; things like that. but basically less intelligent things do not control more intelligent things...."
Unlikely
Governments are run by big companies. So saying governments can control this is just a cry for help.
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I concur! AI is revolutionizing the way we live and work, and its potential is immense. Investing in AI stocks now could lead to substantial long-term gains as the technology continues to evolve and integrate into various sectors. It's definitely an exciting time to be part of this technological wave!
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Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks.
At 315 mark; "NOT SINCE BIDEN GOT ELECTED" On , since when did MORE intelligent things CONTROLLED LESS intelligent ?😂😂😂
Should we cease Ai? Or be… Laid off by Ai then human extinction? Or have… An Ai new world order? With swell robotics everywhere, Ai jobloss is the only thing I worry about anymore. Anyone else feel the same?
No, because no one was meant to work in a factory, it's not natural...
If no one has any jobs, how will the mega corporations get rich? Why would they enslave us if they have better robot workers?
This is all pointing to an age of abundance, where the economic value of everything gets driven down to near zero.
Large scale job loss is very, very low on the scale of harms that a system that is vastly more intelligent then us could do.
@@ahabkapitany I worry about changing DNA
LOL that’s the most underwhelming conservative hot take ever
"Right, not since Biden got elected anyway" lmao
Rent-free.
This is a joke. Ask your average person to do what the leading AIs do. I know that 100% of people tested can't beat the broad range of AI's abilities. People can beat AIs on specific tasks, but not in the broad range. If we make time a factor, AI will beat almost all humanity. Twenty years? Hell, five years.
What baffles me is that Geoffrey Hinton is talking politics, but clearly only from a american perspective. Sir, did you notice the EU started with an ACT in order to regulate? Surely it is only a start, but why not a word about it? Instead we got a strange remark about Biden, as if Trump is going to be the worlds savior. Both clearly arrent and I do not care about both when talking about innovation and AI. What may not be clear is that I am for regulation, even though I am much more positive about AI than this guy.
AI research is led by US companies right now. From this perspective, US politics is what primarily matters.
@@ahabkapitany That is also true in a way. Fortunately others do not wait for US politics to act.
Many saying in next few years!
He's talking about super intelligence.
...
l reaIize that the secret to making a miIIion lies on making reasonable investments. lnvesting without a good knowIedge of how it works is bIind investing.
@@JalenBooekr ...
Investing in AI stocks is crucial because AI is at the forefront of technological innovation and is transforming numerous industries. By investing in AI stocks, you're positioning yourself to benefit from the rapid growth and advancements in this sector, which is likely to drive significant economic impact and create substantial value in the coming years. It's an exciting opportunity to be part of the future of technology!
I concur! AI is revolutionizing the way we live and work, and its potential is immense. Investing in AI stocks now could lead to substantial long-term gains as the technology continues to evolve and integrate into various sectors. It's definitely an exciting time to be part of this technological wave!
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.
Can you share details of your advisor? I want to invest my increased cash flow in stocks and alternative assets to achieve financial goals.
Her name is Angela Lynn Schilling’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks.