Darius Dale: Now That We're In Reflation, Still Be Bullish - Just Not As Much
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- čas přidán 13. 04. 2024
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When I last interviewed today's guest back in late December, he said that the forecast generated by his proprietary model made him about "as bullish as he'd ever been on stocks" heading into 2024.
And to give credit where credit is due, his positioning was spot on the money. The S&P 500 & NASDAQ both increased by 11% in Q1
So what is his model telling us to expect in Q2?
To find out we'll ask the man himself.
Today we have the good fortune of speaking with Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro.
Darius still maintains a bullish stance, but now that we've moved out of the "Goldilocks" regime and into "Reflation", the intensity of that stance is only moderate at this point.
Follow Darius at 42macro.com/
#reflation #inflation #bullmarket
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Always need to slow down the playback speed with Darius the Bull. 🐂
No kidding. He talks to fast that my brain starts freezing up.
agreed - but then Adam looks and sounds drunk! 🤣
Darius's 100% is more like 150%. ;-)
I just pause a lot and replay as necessary.
Darius is what we young people refer to as “big brain”
Sorry for the audio quality folks. Darius' mic was acting up and we troubleshooted as best we could.
No problem-A great interview if you want to listen to someone that's chronically Behind the Curve...no big deal if the audio is incoherent.
dollar going up invalidates reflation, darius is late to the stagflation trade, as usual.
I can not stand most financial guys, but Adam seems to be such a nice, pleasant guy
He's the son of a single mother and has committed himself to providing information for ordinary people, who aren't schooled in the financial arts. Self education is so necessary to make good financial decisions but it's essential to find someone who doesn't have a personal agenda, but just wants to inform. He does have an advisory role but AFAIK it seems pretty solid. I'm in Australia not investing in Northern American markets so I haven't signed up. He is very diplomatic as some of the people making appearances can and do conflict in their outlooks. But he is a stickler for summarising and translating so ordinary people can grasp the concepts, and do their own research.
Real risk takers listen to Darius on 2x speed.
Guy talks like he needs to fit a 3 hour speech in 5 minutes !
Darius is the only guest I have to play at 1x speed. Well, Milton Berg too I suppose, lol.
Lol
Darius got it right last quarter! Have been waiting for his analysis for this quarter! Thank you two for this great episode!
As he missed all of 2023 in screwed half the world up because he's not very smart
Darius Dale is always worth listening to. Pleased that he is willing to give a quarterly update on Thoughtful Money.
I appreciate your push back on Darius' data on household cash, Adam. I share your concern for household stability. Technical analysis is only as good as the data sets used, or assumptions of what the data means.
I literally was looking at those options on 42 Macro’s site yesterday and thinking, “Is it this one or this one?Which do I subscribe to??” Then I saw he was on this morning AND said exactly which one the basic people like me should pick, so that is awesome. Thank you for asking all that, Adam!!! It’s like you read my mind.
I really enjoy that you have guests that have different perspectives! Great work Adam! So glad I followed you since you came to CZcams
I appreciate that!
Wish I could put into ChatGpt and have it explained in detail like I’m a 5th grader
I've had several exchanges with Darius via email and he is an incredibly generous individual with his thinking and time. I have struggled to understand which product would make sense for me as a retail investor. That question was answered in spades during the latter part of this video. Thank You!
Two of my favorites together. What a wonderful Sunday treat! Thanks guys.
Thanks very much for having Darius on again!!! Kudos to him on the spot on calls in the last year, and the sense to only forecast 3 months ahead (coincides with Lance's comments yesterday that it's impossible to accurately forecast very much ahead). I have a lot of respect for Darius, and suspect that his upbringing he mentioned about has actually helped give him very good insights that many other analysts and investment managers don't have. 👍👍
Can’t wait to watch. Two of my favorite personalities and best financial literacy educators around.
Darius and Weston Nakamura are probably two of the most uneffortlessely intelligent speakers I have ever seen in finance spaces. Espcially with Darius, I think he has a crystal ball probably in his rugby helmet inside a safe
Gee, exhausting to listen to him!
Adam, you truly are helping! Thank you.
Beautiful interview Adam. Please invite Darius back in the future. That was a very insightful discussion
Happy Sunday and thank you for your work
Darius is as the song goes “I’m so excited, I just can’t hide it. I’m about to lose control and I think I like it”. ! 😊. Kudos to Darius, I learn something every time I hear him.
You have The Man And The Legend Darius Dale.
Love this guy. Keep him in the rotation.
Amazing! Thank you Adam and Darius!
Fantastic interview!! Adam so much enjoy the interviews you do!! Darius is great!
I missed the January presentation by Darius Dale, so this was my introduction to him. Very impressive! He is clearly intelligent, but also very personable. I appreciated the time taken to clearly lay out his methodology in a readily understandable way. I loved the presentation! The biggest concern I have (and shared by some other commenters here) is how robust the back-tested models will be in times of financial crisis; time will tell. But in the meantime, this provides a way to understand a lot of factors and how they interact.
I did note that a surprisingly large number of comments here are negative, primarily directed at the speed of his presentation and the information density of his slides. As a scientist, I'm used to this so it didn't bother me; in fact, I reveled in it, even if it meant frequently stopping and re-listening to a segment. But I can understand how some people would not like the intensity of the presentation. My suggestion to Adam is to please not dumb down these interviews in response; rather, interview a mix of speakers, with some as intense as Darius, and others more accessible to less experienced investors or those who aren't used to analyzing lots of data. People don't have to listen to him if they don't like his presentation style. There are plenty of prognosticators who offer their informed opinions, but few who back them up with such detailed analysis for us to evaluate. I loved it--he's one of the best speakers you've had, in my opinion. Definitely have him back at least quarterly!
One concern is that in researching his background I see that he used to work for Hedgeye and that there is an ongoing (as of Sept. 2023, at least) lawsuit in which Darius was accused of stealing proprietary models and customer lists from Hedgeye when he formed 42 Macro. In 2021, an injunction was issued to prohibit his use of Hedgeye information. Since this relates to the integrity of Darius and to the originality (and thus possibly the ongoing reliabiliity) of the 42 Macro models, I'd appreciate hearing a brief response, to the extent he is able to talk about it. I'm sure there is another side to the story. See dockets.justia.com/docket/new-york/nysdce/1:2021cv03687/559064 and www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hedgeye-wins-injunction-against-its-former-managing-director-darius-dale-301362675.html.
Thanks for this excellent presentation!
Thanks guys 👍
Always a great interview. Most knowledgeable of a bunch of great guests.
I really like Dale but I have to listen to him at 0.75 speed hahaha
Me too
Love the Double D, but a big chunk of his great Q1 returns came from his 10% allocation to BTC. That’s about 6% of his Q1 return.
April has not been so kind, so far.
Mr. Dale is someone I always "click" when I see an interview. Thoughtful analysis. Thank you.
Excellent! Thanks.
D. Dale always throwing the 🔥!
Great video
Glad I'm a premium member.
Darius is a fast talker.
I'll just read tge transcript 😊
Darius is great. One of the few who said he was ALL IN in December and January and was right.
What a wealth of information today 🔥🔥
Thank you Adam
The more I learn about 42macro and Darius the better it gets. Great interview Adam!
Early congrats on the upcoming birth Darius, very happy for you 🙏🏼
Darius is awesome!!!!
Thanks for the breakdown. I like the KISS strategy, actually similiar to what I have
Damn your channel is growing fast! Congrats Adam, you definitely deserve it
I would love to hear Darius speak to how one might position for the fourth turning. Or perhaps a panel of experts.
Whew, I couldn't make it through the word speed barrage (it's maybe just me and I'm getting too old! or me watching this in bed on a Sunday morning and just I'm not as alert?). I do wish Darius spoke slower and made his charts less detailed/cluttered for TV/tablet viewing as I would like to hear and digest his views. Did I miss an explanation/definition of what he meant by his use of the term "regimes"? It's not one I am familiar with in this context but it seemed important to his theses.
Slow the replay speed to 0.75. It makes Dale speak at a human speed and has the somewhat humorous side effect of making Adam sound stoned. I've always translated Darius' regimes as the current paradigm, or perhaps the current dominating factors, something like that.
Darius is back! 🎉
Thoughts of using the ICHING in investing.
Great video and content. I always worry that the models used here don’t work as well in financial repression last seen 80 years ago.
Love Darius’ work. I wish I could afford his service.
Darius is always amazing! The best!! Thanks for always keeping us on track!
Thanks or having Darius back, he's pretty astute fair play to him
The man is great at analysis
Brilliant discussion!!
Thank you Gentlemen
32:07 cash has more than doubled for the top 10% or maybe even 1-2%. How much of that is inflation?
Re Quintiles and Thirds... @35.30. The Upper 3rd are spending 51%. The Lower 3rd, 15%. That adds to 66%. So the middle 3rd are spending, well,... 34%, aka... their 3rd. IHMO, that is not too bad. It means that 85% of the spending is by 66% of the population. That is, this 85% are, on average spending just 30% more than the bottom 3rd of the nation. That's not double, triple or 10x... that's 30%.
So what will the 60/30/10 asset allocation look like when there are bear market signals
Right. Back-testing has its limits, and they are often revealed in times of crisis. LTCM revealed that.
Excellent discussion. I am discussing future uncertainty. Perhaps too far.
I'm net Neutral. But long duration debt. And short HYG. Long Gold as well thru NEM.
Cheers!
Best analyst out there
Such good atuff
Great discussion, I just wish Darius would speak a little faster! j/k even at 85% slower speed it was hard to keep up with him. I wish I had listened more closely when Darius was on last.
I remember watching Darius on the macro show at hedge eye. His model is their model 😂. Hedgeye is in quad 2 which is Darius’s reflation model
KISS is a legit strategy 💯
Re: quantifying 4th turnings, you've got to look at Peter Turchin's work!
Sounds like a 33 1/3 rpm record played at 45 rpm…..irritating…otherwise an interesting interview.
Yay Darius🎉
I think we have to remain bullish with a safety net. We have two economies. We hear how rent is expensive and how homes are unaffordable due to price and interest rates. We don't hear about people with paid off mortgages who will continue to take vacations, remodel, buy cars etc. Older people are even helping the younger generations.
There is only 1 economy. The 2nd you refer to is a lie
This guy spits more words per minute than a Busta Rhymes track
One thing I hate about finance is the metric state. Put out concerning consumer spending and the health of consumer. Rich people are counted and it skews the results which are always less than favorable
Mainly buying bitcoin here
To quote Zig Ziggler, he spoke at a steady 80 words a minute with gust to 110". Any issues following his tempo, put playback at 75%.
Excellent conversation. Like all your content thought-provoking.
I feel like I’m listening to a cattle auction. Are cattle auctioneers bullish?
Love Darius, even though he hurts my head evertimes
I was just wondering what Darius’ excellent data was revealing now! 📚 Depending on which political party is in power; the West village effect may get crushed with increased taxes on the more affluent employed citizens. Element needed for the E in HOPE; to actually decline. Explains the delay in recession, etc. A lot riding on November elections. 🤔
What a fantastic guest ! I was skeptical of his outlook last time he was on, and I missed out on a nice market run.
Slow down Darius? Ha ha 🤣 😂 Always two interviews in one with Darius.
There are lots of Thoughtful Money episodes I can listen to while working in the yard, the orchard, the shop. Allows me to be highly productive.
Darius Dale is NEVER one of those episodes. 😂
Nice post really all you need to do is watch the introduction. It is an interesting and amazing coincidence like this coincidence happens over and over I just find it stunning the Goldilocks inflation reflation also mirrors liquidity , when the liquidity Spicket turns on and off, so then of course you have to wonder to yourself does the narrative /whatever it is,,
fit the liquidity Spicket and really all the rest of it is BS
did I say that was coincidental?
Spsx let's go
All that household and corporate cash is a huge buffer to any asset price pullback. If private financial assets don't retreat, then UST debt is going to be much harder to sustain at these roll-over rates.
DD is a pro’s pro
Great interview!
He is so easy to follow!!!
Hurry! Be bullish while I continue to reposition client money so I can sell into exit liquidity!
High wealth concentration leads to economic breakdown as exchange markets die from the imbalance. This also occasions the political crisis.
The Skipper dropping ALPHA🤓🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑
🔥💯💪🏾
Darius seems to be a good guy and smart, but the problem i had was trying to keep up. I am 76 yrs. old fast talking just gets me cunfused.
You can slow the playback speed of the video. Click on the gear icon for Settings, and try .75
I love Darius’s 42 Marco approach, framework, and analysis. I’m looking forward to subscribing to one of his packages. I really appreciate all you bring to us Adam. Keep up the great work!
He train wrecked when having to defend Janet yellen
agree Some guests who are interviewed often pretend that politics does not factor into Fed or Treasury decisions. It certainly does.
Yaaaaaa boy.
So, Fed talk of rate cuts is merely hot air leaning against the wind to keep market psychology from reacting negatively. This is what we should expect from the Fed and UST - to keep confidence up when it comes to managing uncertainty and risk. If the market takes off on the upside, the Fed will keep talking about higher for longer.
Me thinketh I'm sure it is not the case here however I remember an old salesman saying., baffle them with.......BS!@!?🤪😁😁
I get more out of this guest than anyone else.
Holly cow he talks fast
Wish he could slow down his speaking…!
More stagflation, not "reflation". We just grow debt and commodity inflation.
I actually have to slow the playback speed when Darius is on so that I can understand every golden word. It's worth it, though.
What was the difference between January inflation and today's inflation in that model? Oil. Oil creates inflation. Which is build up of all the money printing. Lance needs to look at that model when oil was weak in January and inflation was low.
22% increases in car insurance also.
Stair step up elevator down 👇
Avoid major drawdowns with bitcoin? come on Darius
Darius is brilliant and Uber bright but he speaks very very quickly and sometimes eats his words. He was far more understandable at 0.75 speed. Just a tip.
Even my dog made lot of money in a bull market 😅
Darius has been accurate with his calls of late. Who hasn't been accurate is his old employer Keith McCullough at Hedgeye. Hedgeye has been horrible with their calls. I would be shocked if anyone still follows Hedgeye. But I guess there are always new suckers out there. 😬