FORECASTING TORNADOES - With the HRRR Weather Model
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- čas přidán 19. 07. 2018
- Applying the HRRR weather model to storm chasing. How I used the HRRR to forecast several tornado events. Lecture at the 2018 Ohio University Meteorological Symposium.
While trying to forecast tornadoes, there’s a ton of data, computer models, imagery and atmosphere layers to analyze. After you choose a target area, you can check several weather models to see if and how precipitation might occur in the region you think is most favorable.
One of the computer models that I use to see precipitation forecasts is the HRRR (“HER”). The HRRR It’s a high resolution model that I use to help time storm initiation, predict cell motions and decipher what kind of storms might occur. But how accurate is the HRRR? In this lecture, I show how I used the HRRR to forecast several tornado events.
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GLOSSARY
Cap - see "Temperature Inversion"
CG - Cloud - to - Ground lightning
Cu Field- Abbreviation for Cumulus field. Indicating instability beginning and possible storm development.
EML (Elevated Mixed Layer)
- In the United states, a layer of hot dry air originating from the desert southwest and overspreading the Plains to the East and further. This layer in the atmosphere is often associated with a temperature inversion or "cap."
GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite)
- Simply put, "images of clouds from space"
Initiation - Initial thunderstorm development
MCS - Mesoscale Convective System. Big gnarly storm complex or cluster. Usually tracking across a region.
Temperature Inversion - A layer of warmer air that can inhibit thunderstorm development or lock in energy and set the stage for explosive thunderstorm development. A temperature inversion in the lower atmosphere is often called a "cap." - Věda a technologie
Thank you for this presentation. It's always welcomed to hear a storm chasers thoughts on utilizing the tools NWS puts out. Breaking the prediction runs down against actual events really showed how to interpret the data and show why it's not 100%. Still, as a forecasting guide, using it to point you in the right direction helps. I think the main message to take from this is to use your eyes, then the forecasting tools.
ob1foru hi
Hank: Turn on captions
Captions: Yeah, this storm's gonna start dropping some tomatoes
Scarily prophetic if you're a tomato farmer with an F2 tangoing through the field
My adorable grandson who shares his grandma's passion for wild weather... when he was only like 3 and half or 4 maybe... couldn't really say "tornado" . he in fact called them "toh-mados" ... so this was just perfect ! Got quite a tickle out of it .. and a fond memory returned .. : )
He sadly has to do this because he loses a big chunk of ads because the CZcamss algorithm picks this up as not kid/advertisement friendly, so he makes "violent" words into something else in captions like violet, or tomatoes. another issue with youtube.
SPC says 10% chance of tomatoes here.
it didn't gill anyone yes
Howdy Gang! Give me a few days to get the subtitles rolling. It's Friday night and I have to boogie down. Hope y'all are doing well.
Pecos Hank can you come to McKinney? Every time a cell occurs here it bends around my house. oh yeah, its also 110+ F
Amazing and hilarious content like always! Makes my day every time I see that you upload a video on here. Great job!
On another note though, it's a shame I live in Canada, where supercells are very rare. I wish I could travel and witness that with my own eyes.
Pecos Hank
Great talk, super interesting.
Pecos Hank well done. Great informative vid dude. Happy chasin
Pecos Hank here in Australia land spouts are very common. I'm 11 as a half and I've already seen 12 CRICKY!!!!!!!!
This is excellent. People need to be taught about the dangers of tomatoes. They are so acidic. If you don't cook them right... you're looking at some serious heartburn. (XD)
Yes them thar tomaters can spin up on ya !!
My friend is raising some tomatoes that should be EF5, but they aren't ripe yet.
I hate tomatoes. I have a ton I grew ready to harvest but I just don’t want to eat them. They’re gross.
@@christopheroliver148 I got a few. They sucked but they’re the best tomatoes I’ve ever had. Better than store bought.
@@___meph___4547 I used to pluck a tomato and eat it like an apple, back when my dad made me keep a vegetable garden. Now, I am thankful he did, cause I know if things ever hit the fan,, I'll be wiping tomato juice from my mouth while boiling some potatoes and dicing up some onions and peppers. I also grew cucumbers, carrots, watermelon, snap beans, and cabbage. Dang, now I'm hungry..lol
I love your channel. It doesn't hurt that you remind me of my late husband. He died of cancer last year at 55. He always had to stop for the critters. Didn't matter what kind. Loved the snakes. I really appreciate your time and effort with the videos.
Your husband sounds like my kinda dude. Can't imagine how tough it is to lose a spouse. Take are Nancy.
Nancy Allred - That’s so incredibly sweet - I’m sorry you lost your husband.
I'm so sorry you lost your husband. He sounded like a real salt of the earth guy.
I upvoted, but I have no idea what the hell you are talking about.
Clouds get all swirly and the wind gets twirly. Then Hank gives us cool videos. That's all I need to know =P
LOL I love this comment
Eliad654 me too
I see no reason why anyone would dislike this, very informative information for us future and younger storm chasers and meteorologists out there.
C.T. Productions its jealousy
C.T. Productions they missed the subscribe button
Yeh, it’s definitely jealousy, what’s not to like? This is cool as.
BEST STORM CHASING CHANNEL on CZcams!! Love it hank!
This presentation confirms that I'm supporting the right man for the job. Awesome work Hank, this was very informative and explained a lot the questions I had about how you get the best tornado video's on you tube! As always, safe travels and happy trails man...
Sure appreciate I'll you do friend!
Best channel on youtube!
Now that's pretty damn cool.
What are you even doing here?
JUSTIN Y. I see you again
JUSTIN WHY
Im confused
How many people do you have notifications on for?
AAAAA Hank i'm always super excited waiting for your new videos. I pretty much binge watch your channel almost everyday. ^u^
So you're the one paying for all my breakfast burritos? ;)
:D
Hi Hank! New watcher here all the way from the Netherlands. Not a lot of supercels or Tornados here (just the occasional land/waterspout), but we usually get our share of thunderstorms, which I love to watch and chase.
I really like your presentation! It’s very usefull to watch the methods and experiences of an experienced storm chaser.
Looking forward to your next video!
Thank you for not only being an excellent chaser and movie Maker, but for helping me to hone my own forecasts - I look forward to putting them to use in the field next spring!
Cheers Leo. One of these days I'll elaborate more on some of the other dynamics. Good luck.
I love your videos, I’ve learned more from these than university classes. I live directly in tornado alley and feel safer knowing what to look out for in the event of a tornado because of the work you do. Thanks Hank :)
Thank you for making the science behind these beautiful storms accessible. I've been going about different channels, watched many of Talbot's presentations, but this was by far the easiest to follow. You did a great job with direct photo comparison and overlays, which i find very helpful. Great job, and the spaghetti looks great!
hank, i admire you. Your videos have inspired me to study weather a lot. You are BY FAR the best youtube in history!
This is why this is one of my favorite channels! I love how you explain the science behind storms and storm chasing with humor to lighten things up. Can't wait for your next video, Hank! Best wishes!
How does one buy a book of Pecos Hank’s tornado images? Some of those are really impressive!
I’d buy it
Anthony Martin - I would totally buy that ❤️
I’d but it for sure, tomatoes are fascinating!
This is the best of youtube. I appreciate all the effort you do Hank. I tell everyone about this channel, especially during active weather season. You'll always have my subscription.
I discovered your channel a few days ago and have been binge watching since! Your footage is not only stunning but also very educational. I didnt know rain wrapped tornadoes was even a thing.😨
Subbed a few weeks ago and I've watched scores of your videos since. Every one has been great. Your enthusiasm, sense of humour and incredible footage are inspiring.
You're so close to One Million subscribers!
Very informative and educational video, Hank! I'll watch it a few times over in order to understand everything you covered. I was with the College of DuPage storm chase in May of 2016; we got a brief tornado around Texline, Texas on May 16 and we got the Leoti, Kansas, Supercell with brief tornado on May 21. I have photos framed and hanging on my kitchen wall from those days!
Congrats on those catches Pat. Leoti is on my wall as well.
Hank, you are the king of storm chasing. Thank you for such a great video. You make Josh look like a rank armature..
This was incredibly informative and I am so grateful that you posted this! Thank you for the opportunity to listen and watch how you dissect which way to go and which storms to chase! Super cool!!!
Your videos have inspired a young friend of mine to take classes and pursue a career in meteorology, and he wants to chase. I have high hopes for the kid, and thank you.
Awesome. I enjoy these types of your videos just as much as your cinematic and entertainment type videos. Really cool stuff right here.
Hank great to see you again!! Love the presentation and I love learning something new from you. Hopefully you caught the twisters from yesterday. Awesome work as always!
This is awesome, Hank!!! Great lecture... they're honored to be there!
Great video as always Hank, you’re so close to 900k subscribers!
That was incredibly informative. As I watched, all the repetition began to slowly make sense. I feel a little bit smarter after this. :)
Thank you Hank, you really have your stuff together man.
Hank, this was awesome! I love your humor and your knowledge. I learned a lot from this.. one day I hope to overcome my fear of storms and see one up close. Of course never by myself... so I'd have to find someone close to me in Michigan that I trust much as I trust your judgement (probably won't happen because you're the best in my book)
I love this. I'm very fascinated by bad weather and tornado activities. Great job! I really enjoyed it
Thank you SO MUCH for this guide. I have been looking for something like this for a while.
I saw your video with smetlogik it was pretty awesome. Keep on herpin dude.
Just discovered your channel a week ago...I'm still trying to figure out what rock I must have been under all this time. I am now a sub and a big fan. Your video, photo, and musical talents are top shelf Hank, and I even enjoyed your music videos (quirky, but mesmerizing)
Enjoyed the lecture and learned a lot in that 25 minutes and 16 seconds. Thanks for the new knowledge!
Thank you a ton for posting this video!!! It was extremely informative and showed me I have a lot more to learn about weather. Keep putting up videos like this if you get the chance!
its cool to see how much you love talking about that you do man.
Another video for my informational storm playlist. I always love learning anything I can about them.
How very informative and entertaining this lecture is Hank. I don't chase but I'm involved with my local Skywarn RACES and ARES nets in the Metroplex. I use the SPC map but had no knowledge of the HRRR modeling.
Thanks for the information. It'll be fun to watch and see how close to accurate the HRRR modeling is to actual WX.
Peace.
Super interesting presentation, Hank! Hope you enjoyed your Ohio visit. I had a friend who majored in meteorology at OU and I’m sure he would have loved this.
Thank you for this outstanding and well presented presentation on the accuracy of the HRRR model when it comes to chasing, just awesome!!!
You know I love more scientific videos like this and how you use it when you chase. Honestly you've motivated me to want to go back to school for meteorology. Happy trails Hank.
Happy Trails Dragworker.
I love your channel, and i have been watching it since its early days, and ive always wanted to subscribe, but until recetly i couldnt. So now i ham happy that i finally can :)
Your black and white work is damn beautiful. I'm working up the nerve to get back into the hobby, and this helps. Much respect.
HEY HANK SO GLAD I FOUND YOUR SITE. IVE GOT FOUR YEARS OF VIDEOS TO WATCH.
You’re amazing Hank!
I would’ve loved to have been at this lecture and definitely would’ve loved to enjoy 45 mins of it instead of just 25 haha. Maybe I just love nerding out over weather/tornadoes, oh well lol. Really enjoyed it and definitely taught me a lot about how to read forecasting/weather maps. Definitely appreciate the insight and knowledge you have to share with all of us! Keep it up!! (Yes I know this was posted 3 years ago, but still helpful today!)
Thank you for that lecture. I always seem to end up in the path or close to storms that pop up here in south Louisiana. The February 7, 2017 tornado in New Orleans East I happened to catch on my way to work while on the Causeway after driving through a rain-wrapped waterspout. I saw the wall cloud and lowering after I got through that. I called 911 and told them what I saw. Thankfully it didn’t kill anyone, amazingly.
Im so excited to watch your videos. You are so educational and funny. Thanks for uploading again :D
Hank!!!!! Great to see you!
Cheers Feathers!
This was absolutely awesome and informative. Thanks for sharing!! Would love to see more like it! Keep up the good work!!
Fantastic contribution Hank! He would make a fantastic college professor. His contribution to the science is valuable!
Fricken Awesome presentation, just came across your channel and look forward to learning more from you. Heck yeah I subscribed.
Fantastic lecture. Great speed pacing! You are an Animaniac!!!
I'm new to mediocre on storm chasing and each month I check back on this video with my new understanding of weather forecasting.
Cool dude. Thank you for keeping us safe.
incredible shots mate. well presented aswell, ya must've enjoyed that particular day educating the masses👍
Dat waz very interesting. I liked it a lot Pecos.
The hardest thing about lecturing or presenting isnt deciding what to say, but what to leave out. You're a pretty good lecturer by the way.
Always expecting this kind of amazingness on your channel, great video, keep it up! :)
Are you in Ky chasing, right now? Tornado's in Louisville, Ky and Indiana earlier; and now, we are under a tornado watch. Your the BEST Hank! Keep Chasing!
Impressive! I knew you were a storm chaser, but had no idea you’re also a university lecturer.
That’s like really cool. Keep up the good work.
Great pressy, getting pumped full of energy and info. Thank you.
Great video/talk Hank!
You rock Pecos Hank!
Great video Hank!
Very interesting stuff. Love the stills. Looking forward to more man Stay safe.
dude your photos are amazing
Awesome video man I really love seeing the science behind all this, thanks.
Thanks for watching Autherial.
Excellent vid! Can't wait to utilize the information and tools provided!
We just got an ef3 tornado in a town a bit northwest of where I live, the damage was really sad to see but the fact that we got a tornado near where I live was really really exciting and fun to follow
That was an awesome presentation!
10/10
Thank you I have been waiting on this one!!!
You are definitely my new favorite storm chaser.
Hey Professor Hank this is awesome amigo thank you!
I love your videos Hank!! You could say I'm your biggest fan lol i have watched all of your videos over at least 5 times and show all my friends, oh and what you do for animals means the world to us animal lovers. As a musician myself I love the music you put to these videos. My area here in KY is in a tornado watch right now and I'm a local spotter so hoping there's enough daylight to get some good pics when the action starts. You are a huge inspiration to me Hank. Keep rocking and stay safe out there. Thanks for the awesome videos and looking forward to more!!!
Zac postin92788 I've watched all his videos 10 times smh
Hey Zac. Looks like a nasty storm complex with a tornado warned storm approaching Springfield KY. Stay safe and thanks for watching / spotting!
Great job brother! I always can appreciate your videos
Great information! And I love the face that, when I turn on the captions, it reads “tornado” as “tomato.” LOL! Much love, Shelbie =)💚
i have no idea about half of this stuff but i found myself agreeing with you anyway! hahaha hopefully you can post some more tornado vids soon, i think i've watched them all so far. stay lucky my friend, keep groovin' and happy trails!
Top notch, as always! Also so relaxing somehow.
I hope you were payed well for that, you seem like the kind of guy that would do this kind of lecture for free though. That was excellent I'm going to try to apply what I've learned about the systems you use to the storms that roll through southern Ontario. Although tornados are rare here, when we do get a warning that they may be possible maybe I actually chase one.
Thanks.
Awesome I love how you explain everything!!! Thank you!!!
Hello from Brazil!! Your videos are always good!
This was amazing. I learned alot this was super informative.
Dang I didn’t think we’d get a 25min video of this! NOICE
Thank you for teaching us Hank! :)
Really enjoyed this, thanks Hank xx
hank, the only problem i have with your videos is there isn't enough of them. rainy and gloomy here yesterday. so i binge watched your vids most of the day.
keep on doin what you do man
I'll try to churn more out. Thanks for the binge David.
I keep coming back to this video, it is NOT easy trying to figure this out. But after 5 years I finally have a good grasp on how to map these out. HRRR is great. Windy was my favorite app to use for awhile but now that I have a laptop mount, I just use NOAA models from the website
I would livw to attend one day. I am from ohio and from what I hear, you come to give lectures every now and then.
Really informative video. Thanks Hank!
I was at this symposium! I went chasing for the first time yesterday. Thought about this presentation actually when I looked at HRRR models. Didn’t see any tornadoes but got some wicked clouds in Indiana and a nice shelf in Lexington at dusk.
Glad you got to see some storms Aflac.
Wow this is awesome!
Love the subtitles generating “tomato” every time you say “tornado.” I kept getting tickled while trying to focus on the information lolol.
Great video and presentation Hank congratulations 😀👍🇺🇸
Appreciate it Chad.
Thank you hank this will help me when I start storm chasing! You have inspired me to storm chase even tho I'm young I'm really exited!
See you under the meso Dog.
Very interesting hank! Love this
Always a pleasure to hear more about your efforts in chasing tomatoes, keep staring into that spaghetti and I'm sure you'll see all the tomato you could ever want :D