The Big Bad News about the Alpine Fault
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- čas přidán 26. 06. 2024
- Its worse than we thought...The probability of a fault rupture (earthquake!) on the Alpine Fault in New Zealand has been upgraded following in depth research along several lakes in the West Coast of the South Island.
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A great example of how a highly complex subject can be explained clearly and lucidly to the layman. Great work.
Thank you!
shame they get it wrong all the time. sounds good, but haven't predicted much in the last 30 yeras.
shit I had to scroll hard to find you… lucidly rhymes in my new tune… thanks a ship load… never heard it before… cheers
@@flowinsounds how's it living in such a negative universe all your own and all alone??!!And he didn't save my parents, brother, granddaughter, son...... Dream on. Reality rules. Maybe try it sometime. Before it's too late.
A great example of a person trying to act and come across as a smart man.
A great example of why I loved geography at school, passionate teachers with examples all around us.
Thanks for your appreciative comment!
Great informative information, thanks to our hard working Geologist here in NZ, we appreciate all your hard work.
Thanks on behalf of them 🙂
is that like 'great volcanic volcanos' or 'great geological geology'??
@@danielvermeer3363 No, it's like Informative rather than uninformative as is becoming more increasingly popular nowadays. Our current government as a good example.
As in Providing little or no information; not informative; lacking useful or interesting information.
Geologist? I heard Paleo/Seismologist.
It always impresses me what dedicated, hard working people can achieve when they put their minds to something. For so many of us our jobs are filled with trivialities, so its heartening to know there are big projects out there, which are moving us forward.
Yes - I agree
Us? Them? Who? I’m not sure we’re all on the same boat... many people die like mosquitoes, many people live with depression and with no direction, many people like myself never even find a job and just hang out there doing nothing, writing, watching videos. For many people this planet could just explode and it won’t make a difference. I’m not sure this is forward, but at least it’s free!
@@yagalamaga I'm sorry you haven't found a job, but don't give up. When I finished studies I couldn't have a job for ages and had to move away from my family & friends to a big city to get work, which was pretty crappy at first, but eventually I managed to get something better.
Maybe they are better off doing research on where to live next? It will happen, and they still hug the coast. Any loss of life is on themselves.
@@Paul_C Are you proposing you clear out all the towns on the west coast of New Zealand and move them to other areas which are also earthquake prone?
This information should be at the forefront of every persons mind.
It's easy to be complacent.
Thank goodness for our scientists.
Yep!
@@OutThereLearning I'm surprised you don't get more views on. Could give a bigger push on broadcasting and get yourself on TV !!!!!!!. Pete on the Isle of Wight
@@petecooper3701 We need to share them..
Especially anyone buying a house or moving to the West Coast. The EQ probably should be in the LIM doc etc.
Thanks so much for enabling us to have access to someone like Jamie, and thanks Jamie for the hard work and for sharing it!
Thanks for your kind message, cheers
This is awesome! Thank you for making your videos so easy to understand. I would love to see more on NZ's fault lines.
Thanks for your encouragement!
By the way here are some more vids on NZ faults: czcams.com/video/XfpUuLRcE9k/video.html, czcams.com/video/LUsIIJwxPYU/video.html, czcams.com/video/m_1dD2IbV70/video.html
Julian summed it up well towards the end of the video when he said it was eye opening. It certainly changed my views on what to expect and where to expect it. One misconception I have long held is a deep worry about the underground power station at Manapouri. I have visited the huge cave with its giant turbines, and felt decidedly uneasy, but I now realize that the fault line moves offshore north of Doubtful Sound. Plus, we are informed that the likelihood is for the upcoming magnitude 8 earthquake will be a lot further north. When I moved to NZ in 2005 I had it in mind that experiencing a large quake would be an adventure, but the 2016 Kaikoura quake demonstrated that they are not fairground rides. I live 10k north of Blenheim and could barely stand up during the second, more violent, minute of the 2016 quake. The subject is fascinating in the extreme, and I can appreciate how excited the scientists to study earthquakes get about them. Let's hope that our economy at least has the chance to recover from COVID before the next big quake hits.
Thank you for watching and your interesting comments
Both of you have been very clear in what could or will happen. Thank you.
Thanks for your comment
Keep videos like this coming! I wondered why the Southern fault has less movement. I understand the 'gate' caused by the change in direction and dip. I thought the plate moved as a rigid block all the way up the south island, and that the main source of strain came from off Fiordland. From news reports it seems I have it all backwards.
The tectonic stress is being applied all along the plate boundary, not just from a single area
Thanks heaps to all the workers involved in these projects, I know it must have been a hard slog to gather this data. Kia ora.
Yep, they are amazing dedicated people!
Incredibly detailed work and I hope that those able to secure you're results to expand your work and undoubtedly save lives, do so. An incredible Team you are part of. Good luck.
Thanks for your appreciation
Great knowledge to have as I am living close to the fault. I am prepared!
Good one!
Loving this! I hope you will make longer vlogs as geology is very fascinating
Thanks
Very informative and very well presented - well done and thank you for the information. This will inspire a number of people to study this subject and get more people to plan and prepare for any possible rupture of the fault.
Thank you - that would be a great outcome
Love your videos! Informative, clear explanations. Thanks.
Thanks!
Great presentation guys. I'm learning the basics of geology and you somehow make it so easy to understand these processes. A big thank you !!!
Thanks for your appreciation!
Thank you so very much, your videos are AWESOME! I have dyslexia, your videos make so much information available on my favourite topics!
Wow, thank you for such a positive comment!
Thanks for this explanation. And Jamie for your dedication and endeavours.
Thanks for your comment
This was a very informative video. Thank you for sharing this information. We need to be prepared. Not scared. Knowledge is power!
Thanks for your comment
Well said at 15:47 .... All round impressive research. Thanks for sharing.
Cheers!
An amazing amount of research and work has been done to make me look at the reality of life . The technology used has been eye opening and information relayed by Jamie has been outstanding. Thankyou very much for your time and effort Jamie.
Thank you for your appreciative comment
This highlights a concern we all have about the quake potential for this nation situated awkwardly on a plate boundary. If seismic events are ramping up globally, and recent events in NZ are factored in, this discussion is urgently needed by not just academics but ordinary citizens and tourists.
Hi, Guys. Thanks for such informative and essential presentations. My main takeaway is that people have to prepare themselves for a big earthquake and not depend on the government to do the necessary preparations. Thanks for sharing! Stay healthy!
Yep - be aware, ready and then get on with life
Excellent explanation. Well done. It would be interesting to see the research extended to the northern section of the south Island as well
Noted! :-)
Great video and information about this Alpine Fault. Thanks for all your hard work putting it together.
Thanks!
Thanks. Really informative for those of us in the South Island. Something I have wondered about is the recent earthquake history in the area in terms of increasing or reducing stress on the Alpine fault. Over the last several hundred years there have been quite a few very large earthquakes in areas adjacent to the Alpine fault, including I think a force 8+ near Wellington in the 1800s.Trying to look at the Alpine fault optimistically, do you think that recent earthquake activity might have reduced the stress on the Alpine fault, and therefore potentially delayed its next rupture? I guess that would only be a relevant consideration if that earthquake activity was out of the ordinary compared to other periods in history.
This is one of the clearest and best explained videos I have seen on this topic. Hope that it helps the community plan. What I would love to know is what a magnitude 8 earth quake is likely to do to the larger towns and cities of NZ which are generally somewhat distant from the fault
Great question, and a lot will depend on the actual earthquake rupture style. The SALSA project is researching the same question to get a clearer idea.
How're you doing? I pray that this year bring great opportunity to your way. may this year full your house with joy, and happiness. i will love to talk to you if you don't mind. my name is John Patrick, from Nashville Tennessee, i will love to know you, because i love the words you commented on this, where are you from if i may ask?
Glad I found your channel and sub'd. Great information presented well without being dramatic. Thanks for that ;). Best Regards and Best Wishes!
Thank you for your interest!
Thanks Julian and Jamie, excellent and sobering presentation!
Cheers!
Thanks guys.That was a very down to earth and informative video.
Thanks for the positive feedback!
Very grateful, thanks for sharing this research. Appreciated.
Thank you!
The Cascadia plate and the Alpine are the 2 faults that are ready for a mega earthquake.
Earth magnetic field is fucking out, suns about to start throwing solar flares = it’s closer then you think
Dont forget about Sumatra Megathrust too. If you remember, in 2004-2007 there is 3 big Earthquake occur. M9.1 2004, M8.6 2005 and M8.4 in 2007. About 2000 km megathrust segment rupture in just 3 years!. There is just 1 segment that still not ruptured, and it is Mentawai-Siberut segment that can cause M8.9 eq and also basin wide tsunami in Indian Ocean.
Yes - that's why we need these scientists to help clarify the hazards as clearly as possible so we can best get prepared. Thank you for reminding us of these other big faults.
Thanks for your comment. Definitely worth preparing for.
@@OutThereLearning The old full rip vs partial rip quandry. czcams.com/video/UJ7Qc3bsxjI/video.html
Enlightening commentary and information. Thank you for the lesson.
Cheers!
Amazing Work Jamie & Team - so valuable, legend.
Thank you
The sting in the tail for a region of exceptional beauty.
Indeed!
Thanks for the excellent and easy to understand presentation
Cheers!
Thanks a Stack, a Really Wonderful Informative vidclip ..... Very best to All .... Cheers from ChCh
Very glad that you think so. Thanks!
I can watch this stuff all day . I love New Zealand .
Cheers!
Eye-opening guys...genuine hands on science for the punter...awesome...good luck...
Thank you for your interest!
That's so cool as science and so amazing as our Earth and Whenua. Thanks for the clarity and the preparation for things to come.
Thank you :-)
Thank you for this excellent video.
thanks!
Thankyou for your sharing!!
Thank you. We live beside the fault, so for us this is a wake up call to prepare. Much appreciated
Thank you for your comment and great that you are taking action to prepare.
in depth study, quite fascinating to see how the natural scenery provides clues to plates movements and subsequent earthquakes.
Thanks for your appreciation!
Epic Jamie. 👌. An amazing dataset, and showing why understanding what lies beneath us is important. Kia kaha.
Cheers!
Being a Kiwigien 🇳🇿 (My own word)
Thanks for your appreciation!
That was so interesting and thanks very much for all your hard work.
Glad you enjoyed it
Terrific Work guys... thank you very much Jamie 🙋
Thank you
Brilliantly explained guys. Thank you from the semi resilient Lake Kaniere Community.
Thank you
Really enjoyed the explanation of the research GBY 💕💕
Thanks!
Great work! This guy's diligence and dedication will save goodness knows how many lives, when that 'quake comes but finds a prepared populace waiting for it.
Thank you
Great info well explained… thanks for this 👌😊
Thank you!
thanks to all your working and information, I´m a geologist from Brazil away from these fields, but I appreciated your information and it is very important to our daily hard work in any area around the world, the Earth is only one with many records in the rocks.
I love this important hard working with science Earth.
Thank you for your very nice comment
Great video. When I was on a small ship on Milford Sound the guide pointed out a fault line, or some other associated name, on the left hand side on the way out of the sound. I love NZ and have been there many times and never met a Kiwi I didn't like. Cheers.
Thank you!
anything above 7 can and will be disastrous for those living anywhere near the fault line
Indeed - especially if its a shallow quake
Great information and top research that underpins it. A bit of a worry all at the same time 😳
Thank you
Awesome wee vid. Thanks to all the boys and girls out there "in the trenches" (literally) figuring this out for the rest of us. You guys rock (excuse the pun). Lovin' your work.
Thanks!
Thanks to all involved, for an informed and better educated population.
This may well help other quake prone areas, to understand their own seismic region.
Thanks for your comment
Scary thought for this region in the future. A beautiful place for something so sinister lurking in the depths of the land. I am going to call it BEAUTY AND THE BEAST !
awesome video. thanks!
Thank you
Absolutely brilliant work. You, Jamie and THE team have done an extremely good job on this. You are my "go to" site for ease of assimilation and definitive results. Can we, the public, get raw data from you i.e. gps and other sources. I would be extremely interested to see this. Thanks again, Pete on the Isle of Wight.
Thanks for your kind comment. Not sure about the raw data question as projects like this produce enormous archives of all sorts of different data and I wouldn't want to promise anything on behalf of the scientists.
@@OutThereLearning Found some !
Thank you to all those very smart People who have given us this information about the future of Earthquakes in New Zealand along the Alpine Fault. A very daunting event coming our way but now we know. Kia Ora - ka ki te.
Thanks you for your appreciation!
Yikes! Great work. Sobering conclusions. Glad I live in Auckland. The regularity of those quakes was surprising. Certainly gives those future ones a cast iron case of when not if. Really enjoying the videos on NZ geology. I’ll be looking out for a few of the features discussed, on my next road trip. Thanks.
Thanks! Glad you are enjoying the videos
I won't matter where you live, it will affect the whole of nz. The main conclusion is, get your heart right with the Creator of all things who knows all things and lives us that He sent Jesus Chirst to redeem us back to Him. This is not our destination, but only the a journey to it ..
@@dragonflycottagebnb-kitchen Fuckin' bonkers!
It will have a massive impact on Auckland. Ground shaking will occur for a few minutes and with the magnitude predicted you won't escape the consequences.
Another great video thank you very much.
Could you please do an episode on how the subduction changes from the Hikorangi in the north to the Alpine fault in the south. How we have subduction in both directions and how it transitions from one to the other, I'm guessing the Marlborough and Wellington Fault systems are the transition area? Many thanks.
Thank you. Will see, but thanks for the suggestion. I'll definately near it in my now
@@OutThereLearning this would be a fascinating topic. Would be very interested in learning about that. Please keep up the good work with these videos. Loved this longer format too. Cheers.
Amazing work!
Indeed!
Very high resonance with this information you have researched, one question comes to mind with awareness of ripple effects so to speak and the grading off into the land at southern end dips straight up and down, interesting thought came to mind as I visualised a ships hull noting motion of movement based on its manufactured shape how it withstands high impact swells/waves at sea, rounded hulls in boats/ dinghys great in the shallows deeper vertical hulls better in the rough seas apply this to land I’d expect some rock and rolling big Sideways motions about central northern fault on alpine line, thus question is can you foresee a tsunami being a resulting ripple effect from pending earthquake?
Appreciate your work 🙏🏼
Fore warned is fore armed . .thank you for your work guys.
Thank you for your comment
Nice work,thankyou
Welcome 👍
This seems very important - with earthquakes size is not everything but it would be so useful if you could model a few scenarios and apply the result to all main centers in the South Island. A lot of local government bodies might need this to ‘wake them up’.
Introducing the SALSA project: czcams.com/video/bU_O6Qe6Knk/video.html ...enjoy!
Absolutely fascinating 👏
Thank you
The scary thing about the Alpine Fault is that it will move several metres in just a few minutes. It is not a creeping fault.
Indeed, and it will likely move in a few seconds rather than minutes, cheers.
Indeed. Essential PR explanation. Regards.
Thanks for watching
One thing they didn't touch on, was if there is a tsunami risk associated with these historic quakes. Like we saw on 2011 in Japan, these mega quake tsunamis can be devastating. Im glad they have this data and can prepare for any eventualities as best they can. Cheers from Long Island, NY
For the main fault there isn't much of a tsunami risk as it is onland. However the southern end is in the ocean, so there is some risk of a tsunami, but nothing like the one in Japan 2011
Yeah, that was the main info I wanted as I live on the coast in Invercargill
That was very interesting thank you, new subscriber 😊
Thanks for your appreciation!
Nice of you to say Hello
Paleoseismologist. What a fascinating job! Sounds like a job I could really get into if I could roll back the clock and start all over again.
Thanks for watching and your appreciation!
Actually 8 thousand years is NOT "a really long period of time". This is only an eyeblink in geological time!
thank you for a brilliant vid. as a west coaster this topic is often on my mind. i am quite familliar with lots of these locations, and have noticed the changes in south westland beach sand, in some remote places, that will equillerate with your siesmic data, the colour being the give away. the sand, of course, being deposited, on the coast, by rivers following a majer event. in some cases, covering cultural evedence. sorry for the spelling mistakes
Thanks for your interesting comment
Would be interesting to know what cultural evidence you obviously have some knowledge, just hate not knowing
@@ladyglencoe8453 middens, f,b,r in intermediate layers
At some specific minute on some specific day, this thing is going to go off.
Yep
Cheers from Australia....clear concise information, by dedicated scientists
Thank you for your comment
@@OutThereLearning I find it a fascinating subject. My interest began with the Cascadia ( friends live there in Seattle), and has progressed to NZ and the 'Ring of Fire' in general. Given how 'young' the science of plate tectonics is, there is so much to learn...and so many to educate :)
Hi Julian!!! Nice to see you! Good video guys.
-Ben Leitch
Hey! Welcome to the channel :-)
@@OutThereLearning Thank you. I'm subscribed now. Gosh, I'm back in high-school! Looking forward to seeing more of your videos 👍
@@deltadesign5697 great! Hope you enjoy!
After 1yr & learning from the well informed video you have opened the physics of knowledge of our South Westland Alpine Faultline Jamie it becomes 1 of an all TIME understanding accepting in a Suttle way of appreciating what environmental impacts we can relate too Na mihi Jamie & Jullian
Thank you for your appreciation
Wtf I didn’t write this…
good information documentary. cheers
Glad you liked it
I live in Carterton and would love to see a similar video on the likelihood of another Earthquake on this fault, or nearby, keeping in mind the Carterton Earthquake of around 1860 has been the largest ‘quake in contemporarily recorded history in New Zealand.
Thanks - will bear that in mind!
hit the nail on the head
Really informative… I work in the mining industry in W.A and it’s interesting listening to the Geotechnical engineers explain why when we had a certain wall in the mine that was at risk of failing. We have equipment that monitors these walls and they have also predicted when a wall has failed, I suppose it is similar what scientist use to monitor fault lines maybe?
No......in a mine its easy monitoring whats happening subsurface. Not the same with a fault...often a blind fault.
I don't know anything about geology, but I could follow and understand the clear explanations and the graphs.
Good to know! Thanks!
Hey Guys.... that was just so well explained. Thanks a bunch... bit freaky though!!
Thanks for watching!
Ouch! A 75% chance of a mag 8+ in the next 50 years! Yay for us!
Quite!
Don't worry, the Aussies will have one better, it's a record after all, and Aussies love a record. 🤣😂🤣
About time they shine the light on the NZ Earthquakes and how bad they can get. Even Aussie gets bad Earthquakes. Throwing huge kiss and hugs to my sister across the lake 😘😘😘🤗🤗🤗🫶🏻🫶🏻🫶🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
Thanks for your comment
Actually Australia could suffer if there is a rupture off the western coast of NZ. There have been tsunamis that have hit the eastern coast of Australia that have most likely come from NZ. Sydney habour has been a victim in the past with large swells recorded in the geological record.
awesome stuff, Thankyou :)
Cheers!
Well explained, thanks. What about the other 500 faults?
That was fascinating thank you! What do you expect the impact to Christchurch would be from a large rupture on the alpine fault? Would it be minimal/moderate assuming the energy is being propagated north/south? Is Wellington more likely to be impacted?
Good questions! I highly recomment you check out the AF8 (Alpine Fault Magnitude 8) website which has good information to answer your question af8.org.nz/af8-scenario/
The most dangerous fault-line is along the Himalayas (where I am) because of 1000's of dams and every single building precariously perched on the edge of massive slopes.
The most dangerous 🤔
How stressing is to live with this risk? I admire people who live in new Zealand, knowing that it can happen anytime, such a tough nation.
Yep, we have no option but to look at what nature might throw at us at any time!
When I lived in Wellington 90's I remember a newspaper article describing the speed and number of deaths a tsunami would cause when hitting Wellington harbour and the Hurt Valley. It was around the time Auckland was having some activity. I don't think I thought about it that much before this story...After that I thought about it a lot 😂🤣
I was terrified by the Christchurch earthquakes to the extent that I took advantage of the free earthquake counseling offered. I think what helped the most was accepting I would die in an earthquake, so better to enjoy or make every moment before that day, count. And not to waste precious non earthquake moments, worrying about them.
@@RM-ti8nf sounds like a good philosophy for life!
Fabulous information, thank you for sharing.
Living on the southern border of Auckland, I believe that most of the large faults disappear off to the east, through Taupo, Rotorua, White Island etc., but with Auckland's history of volcanic activity I wondered how Waikato and Auckland areas are affected by fault lines? If you have provided that information before, please provide any link you have. If not, could there be a video to show any connections to fault line activity, where the closest fault lines are etc? Many thanks.
Hi, thanks for your comment. To see where the known active faults are in NZ have a look at the Active Faults Database from GNS: data.gns.cri.nz/af/ I hope that helps, cheers
While working on the Hamilton bypass project, geologists spent considerable time investigating a cut and were excited to identify a fault.
Jeez, I didn't know we had 500 faults! I'm about 45 minutes drive from the Alpine fault. The race is on to see if the big one happens before I kick the bucket!
Interesting and informative video
Thank you!
Thank you.
You're welcome!
Brilliant!!!!