Pot Odds in Poker Explained - Quick Trick to Remember
Vložit
- čas přidán 28. 03. 2019
- Get 47% off my poker course on gokupoker.com/udemy
If you prefer, you can also watch it on Skillshare skl.sh/2LK1vmP
I'm going to upload the lessons to CZcams over time as well so you might consider subscribing if you're new here.
This course is tailor-made for someone who has little or no experience with poker and wants to learn the fundamentals, the most basic principles that allow you to win money when playing with casual (no strategy, just fun) players.
Find me on gokupoker.com
Where to play online? bit.ly/gokupoker
What equipment I use to create these videos?
Sony FDRAX33 - amzn.to/2Mffj61
Google Pixel 2 - amzn.to/2OmBb24
DJI Osmo Mobile 2 Handheld Smartphone Gimbal - amzn.to/30LXh0n
Blue Snowball iCE Condenser Microphone - amzn.to/331I9gU
Acer Aspire VX 15 Gaming Laptop - amzn.to/30P1eBN
Adobe Creative Cloud - bit.ly/2SyHdPR
![POT ODDS & EQUITY In POKER [5 TIPS To Use Them At The Table]](/img/n.gif)
this was the best video on this subject I've seen.Showing all my beginner friends this one
Thank you, Braden - I appreciate you!
maybe dont show em too much lol
Really great explanation, i understood it completely
glad to hear it, thanks
This was very helpful thank you
Happy to help
Great video thanks
my pleasure sir!
Nice vídeo, ty for the content!
Could you do this same format but applied to PLO5 (Omaha 5 cards)?
I have some videos on PLO, but not on PLO5 - might consider it in the future, thanks for the suggestion
Great video and snazzy music bro !
Thanks, man!
Thank you
My pleasure sir!
at 05:00, why the odds of hitting outs is 30% if the flush draw alone has 9 outs? that is 36% Plus 8 outs for the open ended straight, that would be 32%, wouldn't we sum both and get 68% ? EDIT: OK I forgot that at the turn you multiply by 2 (or cut in half the odds you got at flop).
Correct :)
When you calculate the pot odds, how do you deduce your odds of winning out of 5 times? Did you make that conclusion based on your outs and probability? I was confused at that part.
I recommend watching the video a few times - it's got a lot of information packed in it. Pot odds tell you how often you need to win e.g. 1 out of 5 times to make money. Outs let you calculate the probability of hitting the winning hand. Both are crucial when playing poker.
I have a question:
In your example, you used:
Pot = 100, opponent bets 50, pot odds = 3-1. You need to win 25% of the time or more to break even.
But isnt this...false? I say this because if you are on the flop, then you still have two cards to show up. Your chance of hitting your outs by the River are 60% (using the rule of 4 and 2), but the next card is not the river, its the turn. Essentially meaning that:
Pr(Flush) on Turn = ~30%
Pr(Flush) on River = ~60%
Now your pot odds require a win rate of 25%, so in this particular example, its an easy call because even the turn has a >25% of hitting. But isn't this 25% break even point dependent on the villians bet after the turn being 0? If it is non-zero (which it will be if the villian continues showing strength), then isn't the real pot odds:
Risk: 50 + [Uknown Turn Bet]
Reward = 100 + 50 * 2 + [Unknown Turn Bet]
Odds = Risk / Reward.
Am I saying something silly here?
great question Sam!
When you're thinking about your decisions at the poker table, you should definitely have a plan for the whole hand i.e. if the decision happens on the flop, you need to think through different scenarios on the turn and river.
However, pot odds are a tool for you to calculate how often you need to be right to make your decision profitable and counting the probability of hitting your outs is another tool for you to know what are the chances that you will hit cards that will significantly improve your hand.
Poker is a game of incomplete information so you need to treat each decision as a seperate decision and in the example you gave, your breakeven point is at 25% and what happens on the turn or river doesn't matter too much because those will be different decisions and you will reevaluate on those later streets.
So in short yes, it makes sense to think about the hand in the general sense as in what is likely to happen on the following streets, but you should treat each decision as a seperate case. So on the flop you should assume you will see both the turn and river and make the call accordingly, even though you might often fold on the turn as the odds might no longer be favourable and there might not be enough other factors (implied pot odds, the tendencies of your opponent, etc) to justify a call.
Thank you for this video, it's so simple and clear. I'll subscribe.
However, I think the rule of 4 - 2 is for the turn and the river not for the Flop and the Turn, Or I have missed something ?
Thanks Hamza, I appreciate you.
The rule of 4 and 2 is for the flop and turn, meaning on the flop you multiply the number of outs by 4 to estimate the probability of hitting them on the turn or river. On the turn you multiply by 2 to estimate the probability for hitting your outs on the river.
@@GokuPoker The rule of four, it applies only in all in situations. Otherwise, you have rule of two on turn, and also rule of two on the river.
@@georgedan3026 if you want to calculate the probability of hitting your outs on the turn and river, then it's the rule of four.
If you only want to calculate the probability of hitting your outs on the turn, then sure, you multiply by 2 - but you should not be thinking like that, poker is a strategy game and you should be thinking about the whole hand and all possible scenarios, not just what happens on the next street
@@GokuPoker It could be very misleading for beginners who learn this for their first time.
Again, odds for complete a straight draw, it would be 8 outs multiply by two on turn, and same on river. Means 16% on each street.
If you move all in from the flop, then you have 8 multiply by four. Means 32%.
To say you have 32% on turn, and 16 on river, and pay accordingly it's a recipes for bankrupt.
@@georgedan3026 no, it is actually very simple. On the flop if you have 8 outs, you have a 32% chance of hitting them on the turn or river. The Rule of 4 and 2.
On the turn your chances may increase or decrease, but it does not matter - it's another street and another decision. On the flop you are making your decision as if you were going to see both the turn and the river, even though sometimes you may not see them both.
Playing as if you were only going to see the turn and calculating 16% chances with 8 outs is a recipe for going broke. Trust me, I've played millions of hands.
What kinds of adjustments should be made based on number of players and position?
here's a video on the importance of positions - czcams.com/video/Lh0PQLBCF_E/video.html
I recommend checking out my course to get a good understanding of all the basics, then practicing them playing real money games at the micro stakes - that's the best way to get pretty good pretty quickly
@@GokuPoker
Nice! It's one of the things I always forget to consider.
I can't find the table of probabilities in your site.
Yeah, me neither - gotta update the site and write some more articles but no time for it. Here's a link www.oddsshark.com/poker/hands/odds-outs
3:22 if you hit jack or 10 is also good .so the odds are not 15 but 19
2:53 you assume they have Qx to make it simple and focus on the draw
also, at 1:35
Shouldn’t the pocket ace second card’s probably include the other cards that were dealt?
So if we’re LB in a game of 6,
4/52 * 3/46 ? (Assuming the ace wasn’t dealt to another player)
not unless you know these cards - you can only remove known cards i.e. ones you've seen
@@GokuPoker ah I see.
great video man - thanks Goku!
Wow this guy has big hands. Like, his actual human hands
Thx
Thanks this is a good explanation...why do you assume at 2.57 that your opponent has at least a pair of Queens?
thanks - I make that assumption to simplify the example and calculations - we only want to calculate the odds of hitting a straight or a flush and not for example a pair of Jacks
@@GokuPoker Ok I understand, thanks again for posting, videos are very informative and just the right length 👍
my pleasure, glad I could help :)
Great video! Is there a way to take into consideration the total number of cards actually dealt out? Example, if there are 9 players at the table, and you end up heads up with an opponent, there are 14 cards that are gone from the deck that the other players folded. If you are on a flush draw, you have to believe that a certain amount of the cards you need have been folded by the other players. If you estimate that 1/4 of the cards are each suit, you have lost 3 outs. I don't know if this is accurate, but I have always thought about this!
Thanks George! Yeah, it is interesting, but I think you can only count the cards you've seen. The cards you haven't seen are random so maybe they were all your suit, or maybe none of them were. If the game is 9max, then by the flop there have been 21 cards dealt so on average there should be 5.25 cards of each suit. If you have the flush draw, that means on average there was probably 1.25 card of your suit already dealt and instead of 9 outs you would have 7.75 outs, but unless you can be certain i.e. the dealer misdealt a card of your suit or a player flashed that card, I think you cannot assume anything. On any 1 hand the variance can be so huge, the average numbers don't matter. Just try shuffling and dealing out 21 cards and segregating them by suit a few times.
yep gocu is completely correct, but you do raise an interesting question. Lets simplify the game: I ask you what the probability is of picking a heart from a deck of 52. Your answer would be 1/4. Now lets play again but i take 14 cards out of the deck and put them somewhere else (still face down), and I ask you again what the probability is of the top card being a heart. Obviously it's still 1/4. Even if I put aside 51 cards, as long as they were not revealed, the probability of that top (now only) card being a heart is always 1/4. Hope this helps!
edit: setting aside cards is the same as seeing them lying on the table because some players folded them
@@AlexandreLopez1999 Interesting. I think I understand your reasoning, but in reality there might be more or less of the suit you are looking for when you are on a flush draw. For example, if you removed 6 folded spades from the deck, I just can't wrap my mind around the probability that your odds are the same when you are on a spade flush draw! If there are 38 cards left in the deck, and only 3 are spades, (6 spades folded, 2 in my hand, and 2 on the flop), then you can only hit your flush with 3 out of 38! I think your point is that you can't predict what order the remaining cards in the deck are in, but isn't there some kind of mathematic formula that says your odds are greatly diminished?
@@georgem3673 I agree! If you (for some reason) know what the folded cards are, then the odds totally change. But when someone folds their cards we (usually) dont get get to see them. My point is that you usually dont know if you really removed spades from the deck (making odds worse) or if you removed other suits from the deck (making odds better). So all in all we dont even consider cards that are removed, as long as they are unknown
I suppose that you might in some cases be able to deduce what some player folded. Eg: the small blind player folds preflop even though no one bet anything. You have 2H 3H. On the table: 6H 9H KS AD. You want a heart to appear for a flush. Usually the probability of that happening is (13 - 4)/(52 - 6) = 19.6%.
BUT that first guy would never have folded a suited hand during preflop. So at least one of those two folded cards is NOT a heart. Now we have one less unknown card in total for our flush, so the probability of getting it would be (13 - 4)/(52 - 6 - 1) = 20%.
So it wouldn't make much of a difference anyway, but from a theoretical point of view it is interesting
@@AlexandreLopez1999 Thanks!
Royal Caribbean jacket?
yep, it was my grandpa's
why do you bet 70% of the pot? seems kind of loose to bluff here , should depend on your stack size, am I right?
this is just an example created from thin air for this video (the purpose of the video is to explain pot odds and outs), but it is how you should think about poker in general.
In this particular spot with this particular hand you should pretty much always bluff on the river when you miss and it's checked to you.
You have 0 showdown value and bluffing is your only chance of taking it down.
Actually, when the outs are above 8, the calculatıon gets ınaccurate. The rule ıs (say, you have 15 outs: flush/straıght):
(15*4) - (15-8) and thus, the result shall be way more accurate.
correct, but for beginners, it's just easy to remember the rule of 4 and 2 - as you get better in poker you will naturally just learn it by heart
@@GokuPoker is this similar on the river? (15*2) - (15-8)?
@@nonono792 no it's not - my advice is to use the rule of 4 and 2 because it's simple.
If you want to devise your own rules or learn the numbers by heart, just look at the poker odds chart and see what the exact numbers are (32.6% for 15 outs on the river) but it's a waste of time - you'll learn them by heart as you play anyway and your time is better spent playing
Thank you. Now my power level is over 9000
keep on training to get to another level my friend
At the end of the video you should photoshop yourself turning into Goku from DBZ.
Awesome video though
Great suggestion, man - I love it :D
Hey, just making sure we are on the same page. At 2:29 example u talk about a 4-1 bet, we bet 100 to win 400. We need to win 25% to break even and yet u say in this video that if we win more than 1 out of 5 times its a good bet which is false. We need >25% to profit not >20%
Hey memes420, if the pot odds are 4 to 1, you actually need >20% to win.
4 times you lose 100 and 1 time you win 400 so the overall balance is 0.
A good method of converting the ratio into percentage is getting it to the point of X to 1, e.g. 4:1, 3:1, 2:1, etc., then adding the two numbers together, then dividing 100 by this number so in the example of 4 to 1, we have 100/5=20%. 3 to 1 would be 100/4=25% and 2 to 1 would be 100/3=33%
@@GokuPoker Oh man im really sorry, replied so well and it was just a mistake by me. I thought that when we said u bet 100 to win 400 we had our own 100 in that so effectively i was trying to make a 3-1 pot work with math for 4-1.
So u are correct afterall. Cheers!
My pleasure sir, glad I could help!
Your channel name is why I clicked lol
super saiyan poker
The villain???
I don’t get why winning 20% is acceptable compared to pot odds being 25%
4 to 1 odds are not 25% - they are 20%. What you do is add the 2 numbers together (4+1), then divide 100 by the result, and you end up with 100/5=20%
Couldn’t find the charts
Here's a link www.oddsshark.com/poker/hands/odds-outs
@@GokuPoker thanks!!
villain lol
poker hands are like movies, there's a hero and there's a villain, sometimes multiple villains - the hero makes mistakes, sometimes even laughable but ultimately, the hero always prevails
@@GokuPoker unless of course, “hero” finds out later in the film he has actually been the villain his entire life... lololol
@@airjordan777lt777 lol, I love it when it happens - it always makes for a good catharsis :D
Sir hindi language
I don't speak hindi
Actually, when the outs are above 8, the calculatıon gets ınaccurate. The rule ıs (say, you have 15 outs: flush/straıght):
(15*4) - (15-8) and thus, the result shall be way more accurate.
correct, but for beginners, it's just easy to remember the rule of 4 and 2 - as you get better in poker you will naturally just learn it by heart
@@GokuPoker Thank you kındly.
Just as a sıde note, I have not notıced that the comment was sent twıce.
@@ozake26 no worries, it happens to everyone - thank you for you comment :)