Why the Perfect Speedrun of Punch Out Will Never Happen

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  • čas přidán 25. 10. 2022
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Komentáře • 832

  • @thepopemichael
    @thepopemichael Před rokem +4378

    You sometimes forget that the famous speed running documentarian, Summoning Salt, is also a speedrunner himself.

    • @icedo1013
      @icedo1013 Před rokem +654

      "Then two weeks later, a runner by the name of me got this time..."

    • @Caddynars
      @Caddynars Před rokem +262

      Yep. He’s been a Punch Out speedrunner for many years and has held records in many of the game’s categories.

    • @alej6712
      @alej6712 Před rokem +356

      @@Caddynars he also never mentions himself, which is super humble of him

    • @HarambaeXelonmuskfans
      @HarambaeXelonmuskfans Před rokem +60

      He’s a speed-running documentary channel, he’s literally the king of losers.

    • @SoapBurger
      @SoapBurger Před rokem

      @@HarambaeXelonmuskfans someone who gets a bag + is revered by a massive community what a loser

  • @AndromedasCartoon
    @AndromedasCartoon Před 6 měsíci +933

    For those that don't know, the Mr. Sandman TAS has been tied by Summoning Salt!

  • @rita1525
    @rita1525 Před rokem +2142

    Mac’s face when he lands a star punch in this game is hilarious to me for some reason. It looks like he’s upset to be dealing big damage.

    • @thevacationman9663
      @thevacationman9663 Před rokem +89

      In my opinion, it looks like Little Mac is grunting when he uses it

    • @theepiceeeman8351
      @theepiceeeman8351 Před rokem +96

      I thought he was looking at Doc Louis to see if he is proud of Mac using his signature punch

    • @ninjaguyYT
      @ninjaguyYT Před rokem +74

      I got the impression that he put so much power into it that it's painful to him.

    • @autumnshinespark
      @autumnshinespark Před rokem +23

      His face always reminds me of the hardcover comic book way back when, because I'd never seen the game played and he landed a star punch at the end.

    • @PinkManGuy
      @PinkManGuy Před rokem

      GAY THEORY: HE IS A SOULESS SOCIOPATH AND WANTS TO HIT HIS OPPONENT MORE, SO WHEN HE KNOCKS THEM DOWN WITH LESS STRIKES TO THE FACE HE FEELS EMPTY INSIDE.

  • @athenaraines
    @athenaraines Před rokem +655

    For reference, the odds of getting the perfect speedrun would mean that you have to play perfectly, hitting hundreds of inputs which already brush against the limits of human ability, while also selecting one randomly chosen atom from within **the entire solar system**

    • @randoprior4130
      @randoprior4130 Před 11 měsíci +116

      Obviously a skill issue.

    • @dego-mon
      @dego-mon Před 11 měsíci +88

      Clearly a lack of human determination

    • @tuio403
      @tuio403 Před 11 měsíci +51

      They are just bad ngl

    • @antoniotrivelloni8191
      @antoniotrivelloni8191 Před 10 měsíci +46

      So you're telling me there's a chance

    • @grunkleg.3110
      @grunkleg.3110 Před 9 měsíci +19

      That's like a 1 in 3 shot at that point

  • @ZykoMike
    @ZykoMike Před rokem +821

    Not a single thing in this video will benefit me in any way in life. I absolutely loved the whole thing.

    • @dtsnelson
      @dtsnelson Před rokem +44

      Learning is a benefit in itself, and I still know what you mean. Who knows you may make a friend because of some random info you remember from this video!

    • @Maxawa0851
      @Maxawa0851 Před rokem +10

      Having fun is a benefit isnt it?

    • @ZykoMike
      @ZykoMike Před rokem +3

      @@Maxawa0851 I feel like the whole comment went over your head. I loved the video. Yes it was entertaining, which is why I loved the video, even though it will not benefit me in any other way beyond just sitting and enjoying the video. Which is high praise for a video, and how he delivers the content.

    • @Maxawa0851
      @Maxawa0851 Před rokem +11

      @@ZykoMike yeah i know it was a compliment, but I mean that I'd consider fun itself to be a benefit

    • @blackheart0117
      @blackheart0117 Před rokem +1

      ​@@ZykoMike sound like a kid

  • @SSM24_
    @SSM24_ Před rokem +938

    27:52 - "the odds for the fight aren't too bad, at about 1 in 114"
    This really set the tone for the rest of the video LMAO

    • @suprmanjim
      @suprmanjim Před rokem +21

      And piston Honda’s 1 attack in one part was 1 in 114
      Edit: it’s at 1:00:06

    • @spoobini
      @spoobini Před rokem +14

      honestly tho thats same as it is queueing any competitive online game

    • @Spectator9672
      @Spectator9672 Před 11 měsíci +2

      I mean yeah, that odds of that aren't that bad

    • @poudink5791
      @poudink5791 Před 9 měsíci +10

      For something that has yet to be achieved by humans 1 in 114 is indeed really good odds.

    • @MDLuffy1234YT
      @MDLuffy1234YT Před 9 měsíci +5

      Gacha players: "I like those odds."

  • @EarthBound_Fan
    @EarthBound_Fan Před rokem +144

    Don Flamango RNG: "We have you 32,768 to 1!" Little Mac: "I like those odds"

    • @cyanideytandcuriousseadogg4160
      @cyanideytandcuriousseadogg4160 Před 4 měsíci +5

      Mac: “These odds be one of me favorites Don”

    • @mikemurphy5898
      @mikemurphy5898 Před 2 měsíci +4

      Little Mac has his opponent throw the fight because of a gambling and substance abuse problem he has after just finding out he got his sister-in-law pregnant. It's actually a really dark storyline for a kid's video game.

    • @averagerobloxyoutuberr
      @averagerobloxyoutuberr Před 2 měsíci

      @@mikemurphy5898 Proof?

  • @zacharyjeffares8158
    @zacharyjeffares8158 Před rokem +681

    I’m surprised that animation team for this Nintendo classic was able implement “stance” into the game. By using the slight variations of timing, they were able to show how Mac is using a right handed stance. Very cool!

    • @kingkrispy5289
      @kingkrispy5289 Před 5 měsíci +13

      NES development in general was crazy when you realize just how weak the NES is

    • @jambott5520
      @jambott5520 Před 3 měsíci +1

      ​@@kingkrispy5289​ Honestly most of the maths here is well within the power of the NES, it is nowhere near complex enough to be a struggle for even a simple computer. Not to say it is easy to make that, I imagine the NES was programmed using a language that spoke directly with the hardware and was not abstracted, something like assembly, so it would be quite difficult to code, but computers are really good at maths.
      Most of what the NES struggled with is scale, there simply was not much space for graphical, anything. So having a large area with a lot of variation in sprites and tiles is very difficult.
      Mike tysons punchout is not technically impressive for an NES game, it's most impressive in terms of design. The design of the game works to the NES's strengths.
      The graphics are simple, leaving a lot of space for making the character sprites do complex actions along with having them be readable. This is what is most impressive for this game. The NES has such a teeny tiny amount of space to render sprites and to store animations for sprites. I imagine that there is some hacky fucking shit going behind the scenes to make it work, I would guess they have to fight the hardware in order to assign enough ram specifically to sprites which would otherwise be assigned to tiles, but I am not sure. Definitely some bullshit hack that caused at least 3 people to take a day off after they figured it out. You also have to remember that everything with sprites is in 8x8 tiles, making it even more unwieldy than it would first seem. The maths ain't that intense, something that a much weaker computer than the NES could do with ease. But the graphics, getting those to be readable, and to run at 60fps consistently, that is pretty fuckin dope.
      While the stance thing OP mentioned is cool, really it is at most a few extra bits of information. You assign the inputs of the punches, then assign a different animation to those punches. Most likely they have a default damage and timing for the punches, with the difference between the punches being a variable. A cool ass detail but technically not impressive.

    • @kingkrispy5289
      @kingkrispy5289 Před 3 měsíci

      @@jambott5520 I don’t remember leaving a comment here and I’m fasting Ramadan so all I’ll say is that I vaguely remember the punch out cart having some memory on board just to help with the gigantic sprites, probably raw graphical data issues, idk, ima explode, thanks for the comment tho

  • @gfdggdfgdgf
    @gfdggdfgdgf Před rokem +868

    Fun fact: if you're a top level punch out player there's a good chance you're also good at making interesting videos.

    • @patoa3481
      @patoa3481 Před rokem +16

      Reminds me of Wirtual. Really good and knowledgeable about Trackmania where his video's are so amusing to look at even tho I don't even play that game all that much

    • @just_peace
      @just_peace Před rokem +27

      Wild how the chance of any given punch out speedrunner making a series of speedrunning documentaries is higher than many of the probabilities featured in the video

    • @damiencouturee6240
      @damiencouturee6240 Před 11 měsíci +5

      That's true for a lot of games it seems lol. Karl Jobst, Kosmic, MitchFlowerPower, Goose, I can think of off the top of my head.

  • @derekdavidson6738
    @derekdavidson6738 Před rokem +388

    At one time, i could go through this game without taking a hit and thought i was great. This level of analysis and gameplay is just staggering to me.

    • @brad9284
      @brad9284 Před rokem +50

      No matter how good you think you are, there's always someone better. That's what my mom would always say to me. Lol idk if that's good or bad.

    • @vgamer11
      @vgamer11 Před rokem +59

      I still think that's pretty great; sure there are people who are so dedicated as to analyze the game down to its programming and statistics and whatnot, but when you've got no tools to assist you other than the original hardware and your wits, I'd say that that's something to be proud of.

    • @orlandofurioso7329
      @orlandofurioso7329 Před rokem +14

      @@brad9284 That's also one of the biggest and most humble lessons from Dragon Ball

    • @bolothemenace9885
      @bolothemenace9885 Před rokem +4

      @@orlandofurioso7329 *laughing in jiren*😂

    • @MannifyYT2023
      @MannifyYT2023 Před rokem +7

      @@brad9284 SummoningSalt on Mike Tyson: am i a joke to you?

  • @itsybitsycherry
    @itsybitsycherry Před 5 měsíci +11

    There’s something magical and hilarious about the TAS essentially telling Bald Bull to go to hell and punching right through his attacks with 1 to 178 quadrillion odds.

  • @dan00b8
    @dan00b8 Před rokem +100

    "ok, that was the hard part. now it's time for the other hard part" had me rolling

  • @thisbox
    @thisbox Před rokem +186

    0:00 Intro
    1:10 Timing Method
    2:26 Human to TAS Completion
    2:43 'Lass Joe
    3:39 Don Flamenco 1
    7:24 Great Tiger
    9:28 Getting a Star Animation
    10:08 "47.48"
    11:20 Piston Honda 2 (and the start of RNG)
    15:18 Von Kaiser 1
    18:17 King Hippo
    20:29 Mr. Sandman
    28:09 Bald Bull 1
    35:30 Super Macho Man Phase 1
    39:58 Super Macho Man Phase 2
    41:33 Super Macho Man Phase 3
    42:11 The Actual Odds
    43:30 Feasibility
    45:30 Mike Tyson
    48:48 Tyson Finder
    49:39 The Tyson TAS
    51:25 Soda Popinski
    52:32 Soda TAS Pop
    57:10 Piston Honda 1 (the bringer of RNG)
    1:02:11 The Odds...
    1:03:12 Don Flamenco 2 - Consistency turned into Fluid
    1:05:32 The Impossibility
    1:08:27 The Human Time
    1:09:28 Bald Bull 2 Human Method
    1:11:10 Bald Bull 2 TAS - The RNG Hell that nobody can or will go for
    1:14:28 Conclusion

    • @ultimatedouchebag6760
      @ultimatedouchebag6760 Před rokem +5

      and i though the host didnt have a life......i was way off

    • @MannifyYT2023
      @MannifyYT2023 Před 11 měsíci +2

      Ah yes. My favorite Punch-Out character. ‘Lass Joe

    • @Spectator9672
      @Spectator9672 Před 11 měsíci +5

      @@ultimatedouchebag6760 This comment doesn't make any sense

    • @fireyfan25
      @fireyfan25 Před 7 měsíci +1

      So…
      No RNG - Glass Joe, Don Flamenco 1, and Great Tiger
      Humans have done / will do - Piston Honda 2, Von Kaiser, King Hippo, and Mr. Sandman
      Feasible for a human - Bald Bull 1 and Super Macho Man
      Mike Tyson (Dream luck heavily recommended but not required + 17 frame-perfect dodges) - Mike Tyson
      Requires Dream luck - Soda Popinski, Piston Honda 2, Don Flamenco 2
      Not going to happen - Bald Bull 2

    • @snakyYT
      @snakyYT Před 5 měsíci +2

      Dont insult me boy glass joe. He aint a quiter

  • @seanb3226
    @seanb3226 Před rokem +125

    It's fascinating to me seeing games like this that have been worked out to a science. Incredible.

    • @Max_Casetera
      @Max_Casetera Před rokem +2

      Yeah it's really interesting

    • @Johny9405
      @Johny9405 Před rokem +9

      Most video games come down to pattern recognition and how fast you can see those patterns

    • @dtsnelson
      @dtsnelson Před rokem +10

      This along with stuff like the minimum a press and speedrun of Mario 64 is absolutely insane to me. Like it gets to the point where you could write a Mathematics doctorate dissertation about some of the stuff in the minimum A press challenge.

  • @superjurppa
    @superjurppa Před 5 měsíci +12

    As a lover of impossible odds, the odds given in the very end for the whole TAS-speedrun are in the same ballpark as taking every grain of sand on the Earth, putting it in a bowl and then picking at random the same exact grain four times in a row. Or, if someone had simulated a full-game speedrun without RNG manipulation million times every second since the big bang, they would not have made basically any progress towards achieving this run yet, since they would be at around 0.000000000000000000000000000000001% of the number of games in which this run would occur.

  • @Smashomon8004
    @Smashomon8004 Před 5 měsíci +18

    And now, Summoning salt has tied the Mr Sandman TAS!

  • @forgiveman
    @forgiveman Před rokem +17

    This is getting to Bismuth levels of: "when I was about to publish the video a new strat was discovered."

  • @VestedUTuber
    @VestedUTuber Před rokem +183

    The odds of pulling off a TAS perfect run in Mike Tyson's Punch Out are so low that even quantum fluctuations after the heat death of the universe aren't guaranteed to eventually result in it. You're more likely to end up with a bubble nucleation event creating a new universe.

    • @psychotheunsane7285
      @psychotheunsane7285 Před rokem +38

      Holy crap...you're right. In fact, it's more likely that another *you* will spontaneously materialize out of thin air...or win the lottery 20 times in succession.

    • @Streetcleanergaming
      @Streetcleanergaming Před rokem +22

      ​@@psychotheunsane7285 BUT would it be more likely for another you to pop into existence while also having a copy of punch out and a TV with a console and battery to play it with?

  • @nolan414_
    @nolan414_ Před rokem +193

    Don 2 WR in 39.97 while the TAS is 58.00? Now that's insane 🙃

    • @Papamanual
      @Papamanual  Před rokem +94

      Just shows who's on my mind for taking MY HONDA 1 WR.
      Kappa

    • @nolan414_
      @nolan414_ Před rokem +5

      Hehe

    • @spookydivorce
      @spookydivorce Před rokem +34

      Me, reading this: okay.. TAS is an acronym for tool-assisted speedrun
      Also me, who’s been raised on DC and a lover of Batman: Punch Out: The Animated Series

    • @Invariel
      @Invariel Před rokem +4

      @@spookydivorce I'd watch it.

    • @keithtorgersen9664
      @keithtorgersen9664 Před rokem +1

      @@spookydivorce I just heard about TAS a few weeks back. I am only a casual gamer but it is still interesting to me. When I was younger I was all about using GameGenie, GameShark, Pro-Action Replay. I don't yet know what the above "WR" means.

  • @ericsbuds
    @ericsbuds Před rokem +58

    wow... the fact that you cant retry later fights very easily is crazy! i hadnt thought of that. these speedrunners are dedicated :D

    • @Rith9789
      @Rith9789 Před rokem +9

      You can practice using savestates, and then later do a run without them.

    • @gregmax19
      @gregmax19 Před rokem +7

      @@Rith9789just practice the rng

    • @jewels3846
      @jewels3846 Před rokem +1

      ​@@gregmax19 I mean tbf im stoned and so them pointing out the obvious actually helped me 😂😂😂😂😂
      I was here thinking they couldnt save state to practice strats 🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️😂

  • @malirk
    @malirk Před 8 měsíci +15

    1987 - Summoning Salt beats MTPO before he is even born.
    ...
    2023 - Summoning Salt ties TAS for Mr. Sandman
    2024 - Summoning Salt ties the complete TAS

    • @Supersonic6427
      @Supersonic6427 Před 27 dny

      It's almost mid 2024 (5/18/24 at 2:45am (est) for your convience)

  • @colecreatedcontent4916
    @colecreatedcontent4916 Před rokem +58

    I always knew of salts history as a top runner in punch out but I had no idea he was still an elite runner today cool tidbit

    • @Eggy79
      @Eggy79 Před 5 měsíci +2

      He also just got SS WR too

  • @keithtorgersen9664
    @keithtorgersen9664 Před rokem +43

    I tried this using save-scumming on the Nintendo Switch version. Even with my best timing I could not get past Tyson, that was unbelievable.

    • @Deamons64
      @Deamons64 Před 2 měsíci +1

      I know I'm well late, but it really doesn't help you that those Eshop ports aren't amazing. There usually is notable input delay in comparison to original, or even emulated. So, it makes the whole thing that much harder when everything you do has 2-5 frames of lag on top of the normal timing.

  • @Caligulove
    @Caligulove Před rokem +40

    Oh man. Thank you for doing this. It explains so much of the "wtf this worked last time" feeling I've had while playing this game.

  • @Steevy84
    @Steevy84 Před 6 měsíci +11

    Incredible work bro, the explanations and drawings + odds multiplying on each punch/dodge really shows how much you have figured out those mechanics to analyze the entire game frame by frame, very impressive.

  • @s1rb1untly
    @s1rb1untly Před rokem +20

    As someone who has occasionally dabbled with watching speedruns for the last 10 years, your breakdowns of the odds in these videos are among the *very* best on the internet. Not only is it informative, it's highly entertaining (especially for someone who actually grew up owning this since their 7th birthday...) -definitely gold standard level material, sir. 11/10

  • @stormlord1984
    @stormlord1984 Před 5 měsíci +3

    "1 to the 10^58. Those odds are pretty unlikely."
    Unlikely. That is THE understatement of the century.

  • @joebeezy9471
    @joebeezy9471 Před rokem +130

    Love seeing a speedrun video that talks about Summiningsalt’s contribution to the speedrun ING community outside of his incredible history videos.
    I would love to see the metrics on the level of activity in speedrunning and/or the level of interest in speedrunning in general prior to Salt’s world record history videos and compare that to after his channel became so well known. I know he was a huge influence on my interest in speedrunning and I can’t be the only one.

    • @sebastiansanchez375
      @sebastiansanchez375 Před rokem +2

      I mean summongsalt does hold all but 1 world record for mike tyson’s punch out which is weird to think about

  • @mugiwarated6319
    @mugiwarated6319 Před rokem +21

    So basically, if one were to start playing now and never stop playing until the heat death of the universe, executing perfectly every single time and resetting at the first instance of not perfect rng, the odds of a perfect run are still a near statistical impossibility.

    • @dspsblyuth
      @dspsblyuth Před rokem +4

      When considering infinite time then your chances of doing it on the first attempt are the same as never accomplishing it

    • @stitchfinger7678
      @stitchfinger7678 Před rokem +3

      @@dspsblyuth Only if youre already as good as youll ever be

    • @dspsblyuth
      @dspsblyuth Před rokem +4

      @@stitchfinger7678 60% of the time it works every time

    • @TehGamesaver
      @TehGamesaver Před rokem +6

      @@dspsblyuth If you consider infinite time, the chances are 100% you'll get this run, so no they aren't anywhere close to the same. I don't care how big the exponent is, if it's not infinite then it's not infinite and therefore possible.

    • @1uPUIKbDF8Wjv0eq3CtJSn7tkwjJce
      @1uPUIKbDF8Wjv0eq3CtJSn7tkwjJce Před 11 měsíci +1

      ​@@TehGamesavera simple example: although statistically improbable, it is possible to flip a coin infinite times none of which are heads
      you could think of it as an infinite series of infinite attempts most of which result in a success at some point but some will never

  • @frikobraun
    @frikobraun Před rokem +15

    Real respect for both the subject matter and that Driver music... I recognized it immediately! You're a real man of taste!

  • @jdurg
    @jdurg Před rokem +37

    That was a fantastic video. Very well done. Thanks for making this. I think it's required watching for any MTPO speedrunner for sure.

  • @yiply42
    @yiply42 Před rokem +12

    Aside from the absolutely astounding research, editing, and general presentation, holy hell what a niche banger of a track at 1:03:14 by Shiro Sagisu, as soon as the first few notes hit I popped out of my chair, that song may have the coolest lyrics of any song I know. Thank you for the amazing vid, it made my day.

  • @Hovezipwn
    @Hovezipwn Před 5 měsíci +2

    I choked on my beer when i saw the numbers rising on the last fight.

  • @CAJames902
    @CAJames902 Před rokem +10

    Great video. I'm a "Viewer" rather than a competitor, and I find this combination of examples and statistics EXTREMELY informative. Thank you.

  • @CrownedFalcon00
    @CrownedFalcon00 Před rokem +65

    Let's not forget the words of summoning salt. Never underestimate the lengths runners will go to save time. Certainly those final fights won't be perfected any time soon but I'm willing to bet that at least a few new timesaves will be found and techniques that are considered TAS only will implimented in real runs. Players get better, communities discover new tricks and so on and so forth. The only certainty in speedrunning is that being nearly impossible just means that it is inevitable given enough time, effort and manpower.

    • @Soma2710
      @Soma2710 Před rokem

      Dick Stabbers. There are certain people who, if given the choice between nailing the prom queen vs. stabbing themselves in the dick, they’d stab their dick if it meant optimizing their run in one way or another.
      Dick Stabbers. Jick from KoL came up with this.

  • @commanderproton7763
    @commanderproton7763 Před rokem +40

    Great video, it's insane seeing how RNG hell this can be for the speedrun. I wonder what the odds of SPO are, but unfortunately I don't think we know quite the full details of the RNG in the game are. Punch-Out Wii I hear has a lot less RNG I believe, so that would probably be the most possible of the 3 I'd guess.

    • @phantomgrape
      @phantomgrape Před rokem +8

      Didn't someone almost get the perfect SPO run but lost it at the very end?

    • @HylianWindRider
      @HylianWindRider Před rokem

      Yeah, I saw that in Summoning Salt's video.

    • @MannifyYT2023
      @MannifyYT2023 Před rokem +2

      @@phantomgrape yep FatPotatoSeal
      The current WR by AwesomeAndy had a pace about a second slower but still had insane odds

  • @frosif7751
    @frosif7751 Před rokem +5

    little mac's fists are so powerful he stops time, sounds like some anime shiz

  • @ZachGatesHere
    @ZachGatesHere Před rokem +8

    I love how the Tyson rng went from not great to hilarious just in the last 10 seconds

  • @SmugLookingBarrel
    @SmugLookingBarrel Před 11 měsíci +15

    I keep coming back to this video, partially to watch the fights and partially because I like listening to you, and in the process I came up with an idea for an interesting challenge:
    What is the fastest possible time you can beat the game in, where the odds of the run are no worse than 1 in 1000?
    There's so many random events that save time, so I'm curious as to, if there was a very specific amount of luck you could have total through the whole run, what random events would you want to go your way that would save the most time? So if you want a random star, or a lucky low refill, or a good pattern, you need to spend some of your limited pool of luck.

    • @Papamanual
      @Papamanual  Před 11 měsíci +9

      Those are very good questions... that I have no idea how to calculate lol...

  • @crowleyand2
    @crowleyand2 Před rokem +7

    The soundtrack... OMG, could recognize each song...I need to rest from the screen LOL.
    You, sir, deserve internet glory. Subbed.

    • @freakbag420
      @freakbag420 Před rokem +2

      What's the song at 11 minutes discussing piston? I keep feeling like have it figured out then it vanishes from my mind. Nevermind didn't realize it was in the description

    • @crowleyand2
      @crowleyand2 Před rokem +1

      @@freakbag420 LOL, Forget what I said as well, I didn't recognize that song and Driver's, but still, such a recognizable ost. Feels so familiar.

  • @jarontjones
    @jarontjones Před rokem +11

    Ayo I was just scrolling CZcams when I found this video😅. However, my good sir, you went so in depth it literally had me mind blown. I had never thought about a game like punch out to such an extent before. It honestly makes you appreciate what the devs were able to create with such old technology.

    • @Dreweybaby
      @Dreweybaby Před rokem +1

      I know right

    • @coolnamebro
      @coolnamebro Před rokem +3

      So true. The amount of soul and feel this game has is bordering on supernatural.

  • @evannewman3997
    @evannewman3997 Před rokem +5

    Ahh, more PMD2 music right at the start. Awesome!

  • @MannifyYT2023
    @MannifyYT2023 Před rokem +10

    Wow
    1 in 51 Octodecillion 938 Septendecillion 225 Sexdecillion 37 Quindecillion 332 Quattordecillion 271 Tredecillion 540 Duodecillion 994 Undecillion 213 Decillion 31 Nonillion 60 Octillion 19 Septillion 456 Sextillion 688 Quintillion 275 Quadrillion 928 Trillion 354 Billion 886 Million 887 Thousand 882 odds of the perfect run.
    Insanity.

    • @zolli21
      @zolli21 Před rokem +2

      Summoning salt can get those odds.

    • @MannifyYT2023
      @MannifyYT2023 Před rokem +1

      @@zolli21 can he get them 3 times in a row?

  • @mathguy3451
    @mathguy3451 Před rokem +9

    Yeah… no thanks bald bull 2. You win…

  • @ashisharky
    @ashisharky Před rokem +3

    "Summoningsalt was the first one..." deadass almost fell backwards out of my bed doing a double take on that

  • @CalFPS
    @CalFPS Před rokem +1

    This was an amazing video to watch! I also love having such an epic Bleach theme for Don freaking flamenco of all people.

  • @rtyuik7
    @rtyuik7 Před rokem +12

    15:09 - im surprised to NOT hear "We're Finally Landing" start to play when SSalt's name is mentioned...i mean, its kinda like his 'theme song', like how SuperMario64's FileSelect is the 'theme song' for Parallel Universes (or having to explain with "but first, we need to talk about.....")

  • @TheCompleteMental
    @TheCompleteMental Před 3 měsíci +1

    Little Mac's boxing gimmick is just machine gun left gutpunches. Man does more liver damage than a gallon of everclear.

  • @theleftuprightatsoldierfield
    @theleftuprightatsoldierfield Před 5 měsíci +1

    To put the odds into perspective, the probability of picking a random atom in the observable universe and it being a part of you is about 1000 times more likely than naturally getting all the RNG in this run

  • @sir.grumpypawson6598
    @sir.grumpypawson6598 Před rokem +1

    1:14:48 "those odds are pretty unlikely" the biggest understatement ever. The universe is only 5x10^17 seconds old. That means that youd need one hundred duodecilion (41 zeros) people to do the speedrun perfectly every single second since the big bang to see this happen

  • @inpyre
    @inpyre Před 8 měsíci +2

    SummoningSalt just tied the Sandman TAS yesterday.

  • @BigPoppi2
    @BigPoppi2 Před rokem +30

    Wow this video is amazing I should’ve charged my phone so I could’ve watched the entire thing but my phone was ded and I forgot.... although DAMN the odds are unbelievably low for a perfect run compared to runs for individual fighters or individual circuits. I expected it to be like atleast 10x to like 26x harder for a perfect run of the entire game but instead its thousands harder. Thats probably not even near the actual chances.... anyway again, cool vid. really high quality.

  • @Dorkchester1
    @Dorkchester1 Před rokem

    This is an incredibly put together video and very easy to understamd could be used as a study in stats classes.

  • @SGTsiete
    @SGTsiete Před rokem +12

    I'd be honored to be on the leaderboards for even one of these fights starting from King Hippo onward. I wanna aim for King Hippo one of these days as a personal vendetta for him making me cry at a friends party when I was younger.

  • @dungeonpastor
    @dungeonpastor Před rokem +2

    Your production value is so high. Love the video.

  • @hanging4176
    @hanging4176 Před rokem +1

    Incredible video, your music selection is top notch as well.

  • @HumbleHurricane
    @HumbleHurricane Před rokem +9

    Props to this insanely in depth and master class breakdown. But my guy, also huge shout out to the ungodly soundtrack chosen for the backdrop 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
    You are a REAL one!

  • @feliomichaels
    @feliomichaels Před 8 měsíci +4

    Not only are the odds absolutely impossible to overcome, given the numbers, it might be that it's impossible for the RNG function to call all of these consecutively as necessary to make such a run possible, as even with the event space, it might be that certain intervals of this run have sequences that couldn't be replicated on a non-TAS section bue to the random number function's value sequences. In essence, not only would some of these be literally impossible for humans, the whole run may be impossible on cartridge even with perfect conditions.

    • @Papamanual
      @Papamanual  Před 8 měsíci +5

      Im pretty sure it can be console verified, if it hasnt been already. But yeah, a human isnt pulling off some of these fights in isolation, let alone doing all the fights like this in a single run.

  • @pathutchison7688
    @pathutchison7688 Před rokem +3

    Being able to beat Tyson made me a second grad god at my school. No one else could get past piston Honda 2. The good old days.

  • @Lix-iv8dn
    @Lix-iv8dn Před měsícem

    great video man, really high effort. i’ve been watching it bit by bit to help me go to bed over the past week. love your channel keep up the good ass content

  • @davep4948
    @davep4948 Před rokem +3

    Awesome video pap! Well done sir

  • @vt_973
    @vt_973 Před rokem +2

    "yeah in his house probably"-me when I use tyson finder

  • @blueyandicy
    @blueyandicy Před 8 měsíci

    thanks for putting your music in the description!

  • @Acecox25
    @Acecox25 Před rokem

    Awesome video man the detail and Knowledge is crazy lol☺️

  • @mattpeters4700
    @mattpeters4700 Před rokem +1

    2.9k subs? WTF? This is some of the best content on you tube! If you keep this quality up I am sure you will explode in popularity. This video is so gosh darn great.

  • @darkreyule
    @darkreyule Před rokem

    This video was so fantastically done.

  • @badnoozva757
    @badnoozva757 Před rokem +2

    THEE most fascinating math lesson EVER!!!

  • @agent8117
    @agent8117 Před rokem

    For the people who like the song at 2:39 the song is Miami at Night Chase by Allister Brimble. This song was used in the soundtrack for Driver for the PS1.

  • @DiscoStuIII
    @DiscoStuIII Před rokem +1

    The amount of times you said frame perfect in just like the first 15 minutes of this video was enough for me let alone all the rng

  • @spoobini
    @spoobini Před rokem +2

    Punch out runners be the type of people to buy scratchers every time they're at the gas station

  • @meachew
    @meachew Před rokem +1

    Love the bleach soundtrack used, and wow the rng is insane for this game

  • @hrnekbezucha
    @hrnekbezucha Před rokem

    Great breakdown, thanks

  • @pandoranbias1622
    @pandoranbias1622 Před rokem

    Incredible work.

  • @camwoodstock
    @camwoodstock Před rokem +35

    Giving you an idea of how large that number is in regards to how rare the perfect run is; that's about 51.9×10^57, as the video points out. But 10^57 is a number that does, in fact, have a name you might even know! It's called an octodecillion... So, in other words, the odds are 1 in 51.9 octodecillion.
    For context, as of writing this comment, Cookie Clicker's lategame usually begins around the octodecillion range, and that's when we're talking about it in the context of it being a normal number, not a denominator of a fraction. That's a big number! Like, comically so!

    • @thegamingfreak6807
      @thegamingfreak6807 Před rokem +2

      Cookie clicker is quite an old game to use as an anology

    • @walugusgrudenburg3068
      @walugusgrudenburg3068 Před rokem +8

      @@thegamingfreak6807 Octodecillion being reachable reasonably is fairly new, though.

    • @camwoodstock
      @camwoodstock Před rokem +5

      @@thegamingfreak6807 - Cookie Clicker still receives updates! Heck, it semi-recently released on Steam with music by C418.

    • @koplopbopthecatsikune9502
      @koplopbopthecatsikune9502 Před rokem

      @@camwoodstock adventure capitalist would be a better example

    • @amberhernandez
      @amberhernandez Před rokem +1

      I will become the world's first octodecillionaire one day. Remember me when that day comes.

  • @silverflight01
    @silverflight01 Před 2 měsíci +2

    So according to the RNG presented in this video, for every Perfect Bull 2 fight, there are approximately:
    39507953 Perfect Don 2
    4.18E09 Perfect Honda 1
    8.79E11 Perfect Soda
    1.16E12 Perfect Tyson
    4.47E13 Perfect Macho
    1.74E14 Perfect Bull 1
    1.56E15 Perfect Sandman
    4.69E15 Perfect Hippo
    1.63E16 Perfect Von Kaiser
    2.22E16 Perfect Honda 2
    1.77E17 Perfect Joe, Tiger, and Don 1
    Wow, just wow…
    And all of this combined gets you a time of slightly under 13 minutes.

  • @eliasdex1236
    @eliasdex1236 Před rokem +2

    35:47 haha super macho man goes twee twee tweeww
    _my MACHO man got too cocky with puny american boy he only threw one attack before dying_

  • @TheSaxon25
    @TheSaxon25 Před rokem

    fantastic breakdown

  • @letsmakeit110
    @letsmakeit110 Před rokem +12

    Can you advance the RNG seed on cartridge without losing time? Because otherwise some of these later fights would be literally impossible because the game only has about 4 billion random number sequences it can generate.

    • @Papamanual
      @Papamanual  Před rokem +21

      the game keeps track of every input you make from power on (except on loading frames) So you can use that to scramble RNG. The RNG manipulation done in the TAS is just done through placing specific inputs in specific frames and there is always more than one possible way to get the outcome you want.
      The only thing is, a human simply cannot play to that level of precision. There would be far too many 1 frame taps, or pressing several buttons at the same time for an exact number of frames.
      The Hippo manipulation needs you to start in a specific 8 frame window that comes around every 256 frames. Also, the player has to have not pressed right or down since power on; and each button increases the scramblers value by a different amount per frame. (Technically if the player has pressed down for a multiple of 2 frames and Right for a multiple of 4 frames) they will have cancelled out in the scambler.
      I could go into it with a bit more depth but its unreasonable by an extreme margin to expect humans to play with this level of precision to manipulate most RNG events in the game.

  • @zackbiggins2022
    @zackbiggins2022 Před rokem

    Major respect for using Pokemon mystery dungeon music in the background

  • @SomeCanine
    @SomeCanine Před rokem +3

    I had no idea the left gut punch did 20% less damage than the right gut punch but was faster. I'll almost certainly never use this information, but it's interesting.

  • @k_three
    @k_three Před rokem

    Great work man

  • @alexkuhn5188
    @alexkuhn5188 Před rokem

    I love the fact you used the Giratina Battle Remix by GlitchxCity in the video, love their remixes.

  • @goldenhydreigon4727
    @goldenhydreigon4727 Před 11 měsíci +1

    57:11)
    "Tell me, does a speedrunner like yourself feel fear?!"
    -Honda 1

  • @shady8045
    @shady8045 Před rokem +4

    1:05:05 idk why but that line was legendary

  • @bananaspice1967
    @bananaspice1967 Před 3 měsíci +1

    Pokémon shiny hunters: You dare challenge me?

  • @PointEndClick
    @PointEndClick Před rokem +5

    This video is awesome.

  • @Madsiekins
    @Madsiekins Před rokem +2

    This video deserves to blow up

  • @seammen6875
    @seammen6875 Před rokem +2

    A moment of silence for Matt Turk's records, which pioneered Punch Out speedruns to begin with.

  • @user-cc4mo1tq1y
    @user-cc4mo1tq1y Před rokem

    Great video man

  • @themastermind8175
    @themastermind8175 Před 7 měsíci

    and I thought I had too much time on my hands. This brings a new meaning to the phrase "too much time on your hands"

  • @ShadowDemonSB
    @ShadowDemonSB Před rokem

    Look at all this dedication and we still cant cure the common cold. Grest job! Fantastic video.

  • @dyl_pickle16-mta48
    @dyl_pickle16-mta48 Před 7 měsíci +1

    15:16 I recognize that music anywhere. It's the theme of the Ginyu Force from the Bruce Faulconer score of DBZ.

  • @BigBoct
    @BigBoct Před 8 měsíci

    Having now watched part of your recent high score TAS, I would LOVE to see a video about how you did it.

  • @Mobius14
    @Mobius14 Před rokem +5

    What if you deliberately routed Punch Out as "worst" as possible? Like, deliberately finish every fight with round 3 2:59 timing. Maximize the length of the Punch Out run, get the worst RNG, etc.

    • @Papamanual
      @Papamanual  Před rokem +1

      Im not sure what the ultimate goal I would be trying to attain here. I have TAS'd ( a long time ago) a run where a human would use their typical strats, but the game would always give the worst RNG.
      The TAS also assumed the player would eventually get good RNG, but never does. It was sort of interesting I suppose, but not a thing I really want to explain in depth
      czcams.com/video/B8joML2rtlw/video.html

    • @Mobius14
      @Mobius14 Před rokem +6

      @@Papamanual As in, how long (barring any infinite recursion) can a Punch Out run be? Maximum knock downs, maximum retrys, maximum fight lengths. The "worse" the run the better.

  • @monkey-46
    @monkey-46 Před 10 měsíci +1

    That thumbnail is terrifying

  • @zachlyons2425
    @zachlyons2425 Před rokem +1

    very in depth wow!

  • @the8thark
    @the8thark Před 8 měsíci +1

    Nothing is impossible. Just very improbable. Salt just recently got the Sandman TAS while grinding him.

  • @MannifyYT2023
    @MannifyYT2023 Před rokem +10

    Just got a 1 in 101.1 (aka 0.988%) King Hippo where he threw 4 open mouth punches and didnt give me a delay between the 2nd and 3rd punches. Time came out to 45.00. Even if it wasnt on console (It was a really weird rom with some changed assets. no fighter changes, only some text and some blocks in the training cutscenes) im still proud of it

  • @blue5599_REAL
    @blue5599_REAL Před rokem

    Love this channel

  • @MatthewOfGilead
    @MatthewOfGilead Před 5 dny

    Every time someone says something is impossible or will never happen theres always a guy in some far off future that will look back on you and laugh.

    • @Papamanual
      @Papamanual  Před 5 dny

      well until then, allow me to laugh at them :)