Is Earth's Largest Heat Transfer Really Shutting Down?
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- čas přidán 27. 04. 2024
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With unprecedented heat waves and record-breaking global temperatures, it’s hard to believe that there might be a place on earth that has actually COOLED since the industrial revolution. But, it turns out, there is such a spot. The COLD BLOB off of Greenland mystified scientists for years, but new studies have uncovered a scary reality - this cool patch might be a warning of the impending collapse of a vital earth circulation system. And the consequences would be dire.
In this episode of Weathered, we travel to the Gulf Stream with the new PBS Terra show Sharks Unknown to experience the AMOC first hand. And we ask, what is the likelihood that the AMOC will collapse, and what would the consequences be?
Weathered is a show hosted by weather expert Maiya May and produced by Balance Media that helps explain the most common natural disasters, what causes them, how they’re changing, and what we can do to prepare.
This episode of Weathered is licensed exclusively to CZcams.
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Sources:
Ditlevsen & Ditlevsen. “Warming of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation”. Nature Communications. 2023.
L. Caesar et al. “Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium.” Nature Geoscience. 2021
Chengfei He et al. “A North Atlantic Warming Hole Without Ocean Circulation.” Geophysical Research Letters. 2022.
Stefan Rahmstorf et al. “Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation.” Nature Climate Change. 2015.
Paul Keil et al. “Multiple drivers of the North Atlantic warming hole”. Nature. 2020.
David Armstrong Mckay et al. “Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points”. Science. 2022
We're just smart enough to screw it up, but collectively too stupid to stop screwing it up.
Nonsense. We have known exactly what kind of actions we can take to mitigate or reverse the damage. The problem is greed. The biggest corporate contributors to this problem would rather make more money now at everyone's expense now and later. This is how all mega-wealthy people think. With more money they think the problem wont affect them or their children, and they're right that they'll be in the best position to survive but their greed makes them blind to the realization that they will still need everyone else around them to make being "rich" mean anything. We could have started making progress towards these problems decades ago, but instead they've sowed doubt, discontent, and apathy.
@@JNArnold you're not wrong that greed is a large factor in this. But Tomtom isn't wrong in that collective stupidity plays a massive role too. The stupidity is sometimes in the individuals, for not understanding the science. But it is also in the collective, as in that we fail to transmit the knowledge that is available to the others in the system. It is further a collective stupidity because no individual can change the system on their own, with the best intentions in the world.
I fully agree with both of you, really. (apart from your point that Tomtom's point was nonsense, so I guess not fully...)
@@JNArnoldyou didn’t refute the op
@@mr-boo I wouldn't exactly call it stupidity (though I also won't fight the term). It's a psychological system to drive the masses towards the desired behaviour, regardless of what the individuals would want without this influence. It was developed during WWI, when the US wanted to enter the war but the US people didn't because they regarded it as a European affair. They called it Public Relations, and it was more effective than they could have hoped. In less than a year, people wanted to fight in the war. Post WWI, the same program was used to boost sales of private corporations, and a few decades later the NSDAP hijacked this exact system for their own political agenda - and if you can get a whole country to be on board with gassing millions of innocent people ... then what can this system not do? Today it is absolutely everywhere, every big corporation has its own PR office.
The worst thing for climate change is that it's exactly the fossil fuel corporations that are some of the most influential and wealthy corporations, and they try to keep their profits up as much as possible, damn the consequences. That's why they boost so much money into climate change denying PR and have so much success with it.
Time old story.
We have half the country that can not even handle basic reality, I feel bad for the future
"prayers" would be cynical, as you are american I guess.
I understand your sorrow. We all need a lot of courage for the future.
Well said
Covid seems to be taking them out
And Americans only consider themselves
More than half. Pretty much all voters. And all those who perception of reality led them to trust "safe and effective". Purebloods can just sit and watch the lemmings run off the cliff.
I live in Greece. December and January are usually the months with our heaviest rainfall. For the last two years we've had barely any rain during these months. Two, maybe three medium to big rains and that's it. I have been forced to irrigate our freshly planted fruit trees DURING WINTER!
In the early 2000's I was hitchhiking with a man who had a bunch of farmer friends in the south of France. They used to rely on spring rains to grow hay for next winter, the summer being too dry for such growing conditions. When I hitched with him he told me that all of his friends were seeing a shift in the weather patterns towards heavier winter rains and dry springs. This was one of many recent springs where they were forced to let their cattle graze the spring growth instead of baling it for winter, putting them effectively 'into the red' when it comes to feed production. They would all have to buy in hay for winter feeding.
Please study the fundamentals of atmospheric physics and El Nino and La Nina period of warming oceans will intensify the droughts, the heat waves and the flooding events depending on which cycle is striking your area or any other continent on planet Earth Earth is entering a greenhouse gas mass extinction event there has not been seen in nearly 55 million years
I'm 71, born just after WW II. Of course I know my death is approaching - - as is global climate change.
I may have lived thru a "golden age" none of us recognized.
@@veramae4098 Many of us recognized, if you recall.
ClimTe manipulation???
Sounds like luxury, just 2 or 3 big rains? Not the 2 to 3 hundred big rain events Ive seen this past few months. So much rain its killed plants which is something ive never seen before in 50 years, you can always add more water but you cant take it away.
In Japan, rising seawater temperatures are increasing the activity of algae-eating fish, leading to an increase in areas where algae are becoming extinct.
The extinction of algae has a major impact on the growth of marine life.
As a result, more and more fishermen are planning to protect and regenerate algae.
What worries me about this? How difficult it will be to get crops out of drastically changing and/or unpredictable weather. No crops, no meals.
The Earth is greening.
Yeah, crop yields tend to increase with rising temperatures. Just look at all of history! The problem comes with a lack of moisture, which shouldnt be a an issue with warm sea temperatures, but climate is more difficult to predict than warm=better. So who knows.
Rising temps and rising crop yields have a hard limit.
Don't worry, the billionaires will eat just fine.
No crops, no meals -> WORLDWAR - of course. Don't stay naiv, bro.
I work in aviation. I have spoken with air traffic controllers who have, in some cases, worked at the same radar facilities, or control towers their entire career. Aircraft perform best into the wind. This is a fundamental rule of aviation. For this reason, runway changes are implemented to always be utilizing the winds to the best advantage. Crosswinds and tailwinds are not ideal, you want into the wind. The tower controllers in many cases have said, you know, back in the 80s, we used the XYZ runway configs maybe, 3 or 4 times per year. In some cases, it's like the east/west flows, where 99% of the time they're in a north flow, or similar. But they in some cases have said, well, now we run east/west flows half of the time we're operating...it's like, how can this be? Have the winds truly changed THAT much in just 20-30 years??? The answer is undoubtedly yes. When you hear anecdotes from everyday people like this, it really hits you, even more than the charts and hard science/data, IMO.
Thanks for sharing something I would have never even thought about! That's... an uneasy feeling.
I also work in aviation, with ATC and on the airfield at several locations around the world, and I have never heard of this. Magnetic declination changes, sure, but not prevailing winds. What you are describing sounds more like changes to traffic patters due to increased traffic over the last 20-30 years. More planes mean more traffic on limited air and runway space necessitating updated or new approach and departure procedures.
This only shows that there is considerable fluctuations in climate. Those fluctuations have always been naturally occurring.
Which only emphasizes Climate is a googleplex multivariant dynamic system, and that explains why all 37 University employee flat-earth 'climate simulations, especially last month's Hottest Day on Record! *COMPUTER Simulation,* are just Mil.Gov.Sci.Edu institutional 'Gimme Gimme' for Biden Boiling Bunko Bonus Hole Bucks, here in *The Infernocene(tm) Epoch of Magic CO2!©* 😜💵💵💵
Bill McKibben even BOASTS the Greens are a rabbinical religious movement _"...to make people and their freedom (to use energy) smaller."_
This is very important info, especially because ppl do relate to it better, straight from personal experience. It should be part of a video, or something!
My wife’s grandfather is a lobsterman in Maine. He has been doing this for 30+ years. He says the fishing has shut down this year.
98% of all snow and king crabs died off from a marine heat wave in the bearing Straits. It killed the crab industry!
Keep throwing garbage in the sea.
Your wife should be lucky its her grandfather... because if it was her father - or her brother - or you - or her son, they'd be in for a rude awakening over the next couple years.
Data says the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation current is weakening faster than we thought. Europe is going to cool massively, very quickly, sea levels will rise, ice will melt, waters will cool marginally cool as ice melts off, locally, then temps will rise. These rising temps will impact lobster populations.
The lobster industry in Maine is going to end except for very regulated fishing. The populations will not support it.
It's not so much the climate CHANGE - both we and ecosystems can adapt - it's the SPEED in which its happening, reducing the ability for that adaptation.
We're not ready. Culturally. Politically. Or economically.
Buckle up.
@user-el5yw1er2j it'll melt then cause an ice age in the northern hemisphere. The earth will reset itself.
@@twincam103 Not in time to save human cold-water industries, bud.
30 years ago in school it was called the Thermo-haline circulation belt. Our instructors warned about the implications of it shutting down. It's a scary thing, especially for Europe.
i think its scary for all world. its just Atlantic ocean is more eemm important for research than rest of them. this will probably change flows in all oceans, everything is connected.
It's not shutting down. Don't be duped into any sort of panic
@@soakupthesunman Really, what makes you think it isn't?
@@jadezahreddine5379 Nobody has to prove it isn't shutting down. The onus is on those predicting it will shut down, to prove their claims. So far, every climate catastrophe prediction has proven to be wrong. ALL of 'em.
@@soakupthesunman But there must be at least 500 books that can be written and sold on that hype. Think of all the conferences and grant money colleges can get. Like the Roswell alien conference were all the rage, pre internet.
im from Nova Scotia (near the 'cold blob') flooding has been insane these last couple years (record rainfall according to atlantic ctvnews). this year has seen 4x as many lightning strikes compared to the average of the last 20 years (26,194 in 2022, 6,266 average for the last 20 years. there is a CBC article but i can't post links in comments)
Sadly, the wealthy and powerful don't "believe" in data and science. Only their opinions and instant internet assessments count.
But it's funny you mention how lightning strikes are 4x as common, because that is *precisely* what happens when extreme temperatures collide under the right circumstances. There are already places on the planet that experience these kinds of "every hour lightning strikes", but obviously, no one lives there.
Maybe there has just been better measuring devices
I'm from Stockholm Sweden and we barely have winters anymore. This summer we have seen an insane amount of rain in a very short period which has caused massive flooding and failed crops.
You can post the title of the page and the site (minus domain) in plain text, for people to search.
Nova Scotia
Storm of the summer brought 23,000 lightning strikes to N.S.
N.S. broke July lightning strike records by a long shot - all because of one storm
Brooklyn Currie · CBC News · Posted: Aug 20, 2023
A more interesting article I found while looking for that one;
A look at Ottawa's summer of heavy rain, tornadoes and lightning strikes
Josh Pringle
CTV News Ottawa
Published Aug. 13, 2023
I also live in Nova Scotia the weather this year has been extreme to say the least. I don't need a measuring device to tell me this is not normal I've lived here my whole life.
Having been a small fruit grower - blueberries, raspberries, blackberries, elderberries, highbush cranberries, gooseberries, plus a wild grove of mulberries - I have watched in 20 years a shift of a full hardiness zone in our area. The problem is that it's not a "clean" increase, we still get oddball very late freeze events in spring that two years ago caused a LOT of my fruits to have substantially decreased yields, both due to freeze damage and it being too cold for pollinators for nearly two weeks right in the early spring blooming season.
Plus I've seen an increase in various insect pests, and a massive and unpredictable increase in fungal diseases. It's going to be worse with forestry and tree crops, as these changes may mean that you have a disease or pest that suddenly invades areas with mature trees, wiping them out. For example, they found out that cold winters can massively reduce emerald ash borer populations, but we've had enough warmer winters that even the Great Lakes States are getting hammered. Ash trees may become extremely rare in the United States due to this.
So this is a huge problem. I cannot understand why so many farmers are voting for politicians that are blocking any steps to deal with climate change, because whether it's farmers in the Colorado River Basin (20 year mega-drought that may just be ending, though it's more likely a reprieve not a pardon) or farmers having to plant more southern varieties of blueberries that are inferior to the more northern ones in taste, but can survive extended heat waves better (look up Rabbiteye versus Northern Highbush Blueberries), farmers can see climate change in action over half a lifetimes of farming (20 years).
As an example of how devastating this can be to farmers and crops, it's not just having to change Blueberry species, but you end up pulling up or losing mature bushes that could have lived 50 years and had over 20 years of optimal yields, and the new pushes can take 5 years to return to full yields. Assuming no drought, because freshly planted/younger bushes have less of a root system, and are more susceptible to water shortages. Look how devastating a workplace injury or layoff that causes a family to lose months of income can be - and then consider surviving a five year financial hit.
There are dozens of other examples, and it's not just in the United States but all over the world agriculture will require massive, rapid changes to cope with this. Then when you have overpumping of aquifers, like in the Colorado River Basin, you end up with a collapse when that water becomes prohibitively expensive, if the dry period continues.
Look up "food riots". Drought and famine have been events that have ended civilizations. Plus famine gives you more disease, and nations go to war to make sure "their" people don't starve. You've got all four horsemen covered...
I couldn't agree more. Problem is also that farmers or farm companies are also big poluters and industrial farming is responsable for too much poluters on planet (people).
We need to lower population in soft way or nature will make it the hard way.
Plus we need to go on sustainable way of production of food and with all other industries.
But this will not happen until gloriefied capitalism is rooling the world.
@@ueasy1actually, due to aging populations across most of the developed world, scientists are now predicting that the the global population will reach its peak and then begin falling around the year 2050.
Effects on the productiveness of fisheries & general aquaculture worries me too, esp. for island nations like ourselves & many of our neighbours down here? Very high-population-density regions like SE Asia are highly dependent on marine sources for food security too.
@@beantreatsThat’s too long, we need to start now
You bring up so many good points. Climate policy is economic policy. If you are concerned about the United States and the global economy, then you should be voting for climate protective policies and political representatives that support them.
And they didn't even mention the Beaufort Gyre... a much more intense modification of the AMOC that will dump more fresh water than is contained in the great lakes into the North Atlantic. This usually happens within 1-2 years once it starts and can last for 20 years. It's a known northern hemisphere cooling factor. By not adding this to their story they've left out a huge factor that could cause that "2060" date to look more like 2025.
That's horrifying.
@@MWGCotah Exactly right! Unfortunately...
Often wondered as a Scot why scotlands warming isnt happening...
Now I know...cold blob proximity.
Only we could miss warning entirely and go straight from cold to ice age 😂
@@user-uk8tl3xy9e theres three measures of weather in Scotland
Pure Baltic - very cold
Baltic - Cold
Taps aff - wishful thinking in summer.
Winters are milder generally but its simply a different form of cold.
Not noticed sea levels as its a poor bastard who gets into the sea in Scotland. You have to count your toes afterwards.
If this blob is going to cool Scotland again my dream that once spain is too hot the Isle of Harris becomes the new Ibiza will sadly not happen. :)
As an Irishman this video freaked me the hell out. Maybe all those British retiree's moving to Spain are on to something.
Ouch!
Ice ages are caused by the Milankovich cycle
Some have been saying it for decades.
As a sailor I've been hearing people talk about losing the Gulf Stream and was curious about how that might happen. Thanks for answering literally every question I might have come up with about the subject. Once again you and your great team have hit a home run. 👏 👏 👏
Keep in mind the Gulf Stream and the AMOC are completely different things, when people talk about this collapsing and freezing Europe they are talking about the AMOC
@1ycan-eu9ji In the video the Gulf Stream was referenced by name.
The oceans need draining before they boil. Water Vapor (WV) is a greenhouse gas as potent as CO2 according to theory. On average there is 50 times as much WV in the atmosphere as CO2.
The fact that it is non -persistent is often mentioned. It doesn't have to be. You can AVERAGE (integrate) the effect. There is on AVERAGE 50 times as much.
@@1ycan-eu9ji Water vapor is doing us in. Water Vapor (WV) is a greenhouse gas as potent as CO2 according to theory. On average there is 50 times as much WV in the atmosphere as CO2.
The fact that it is non -persistent is often mentioned. It doesn't have to be. You can AVERAGE (integrate) the effect. There is on AVERAGE 50 times as much.
@@msimon6808 Maybe you don't realize that as the atmosphere warms it can hold MORE water. That is why CO2 acts as a thermostat. Increase CO2 (GHG) and it will warm and then more water (GHG) will enter the atmosphere, ... Yep. CO2 is the culprit. Thanks for pointing it out.
First thing is to get governments to understand that YOU CAN'T EAT MONEY.
It's the Wall Street crowd who need that lesson.
@@deepashtray5605 ...and Wall Street owns your government.
@@deepashtray5605 yes
What's scary is that the governments of the world know about this and they aren't doing nearly enough to make change
The government doing something can only make it worse. And there are governments working closely with powerful and evil people who are using this climate change to scare everyone into total submission. Dont be one of them.
There are no governments. There are corporations.
Gotta get those gains. Its truly what will be our demise. Capitalism and greed.
@lailahreich3205 The crazy thing is people consider humans to be so intelligent. Its not a very intelligent move to know what you're doing is terrible and bad for your survival, yet continue to do it. No other animal on this planet would do that except for humans, yet we're so smart.
You trust either government of companies to sale an actual solution to this when they can just do their ESG BS to give off the appearance of it??? 😂😂 cmon now.
Instead they create the crisis funded by your money and sell you the solution
Living in one of your “riskiest regions” of the u.s. I have a front row seat to climate change, yet we are continually amazed our neighbors and politicians can deny anything is amiss. We can no longer deny to ourselves that we need to leave for our health and quality of life is suffering even though our income is tied to the area as well as our families. My anxiety cannot take hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, drought, heat domes, power failures, and now wildfire especially in our elder years like we are now. This is getting worse each and every year. I have actually encouraged my grown children to escape if they possibly can because I love them so much. Escape will be harder and harder as time marches on there will be nowhere to go but staying here is not an option.
I feel for you. I am 61, but I am fortunate enough to be in Michigan, where the impacts of climate change are not as bad.
Where do you want your kids to escape too, so I can send my kids with them I am 63 so by the time 2060 arrives when the AMOC stops I will be long gone but my daughter and especially my granddaughter will be here to face the collapse
Love the way you broke down the word thermohaline for folks without getting pedantic. Getting folks who are busy with other concerns in life up to speed without getting condescending is going to be key as this all gets more complicated and intrudes into everyone's lives. Well done, as usual. Weathered is a really, really great series that brings fairly detailed science in a way that's understandable to the general public. Thanks for all you do!
Too bad it took 30 years.
2011 was the record low polar ice. The ice ages cycles only started when north and south americans join toguether, blocking the old world stream more centralized like in pacific and indic. So this atlantic shape, creates a piston movement on the stream that creates the cycle warm - cold - warm - cold of the north atlatic and polar oceans, afecting the rest of the planet as well. If you watch closely, its only the north pole that are trully warming up, and not the south pole. The atlantic piston cycle. ;) (just a wild thinking that i had 6 years ago)
Just wanted to give a counter point of view after talking with some climate scientists/oceanographers who study the AMOC directly (shoutout to Dr. Penny Holliday!). The Ditlevson & Ditlevson paper is really the only recent one that is predicting AMOC collapse this century (with a 95% confidence level which in of itself is suspicious given the unpredictably of chaotic systems like an AMOC collapse). The IPCC estimated it very unlikely to happen this century based on the scientific consensus (single digit percent level as Rahmstorf hoped). The disconnect comes from Ditlevson & Ditlevson using a novel (and controversial) analysis technique. North Atlantic (NA) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has been used as a proxy for AMOC strength before and the usual protocol is to subtract the Global Mean SST to take out seasonal variability and the direct impact of global warming on SST. To account for polar amplification (more warming in the Arctic relative to the mean), the group subtracted 2 times the Global Mean SST from the NA SST instead. This has the effect of exaggerating the variability and decline of the AMOC and is what gives you the downward slope graph shown in the video. By just subtracting the 1 times the Global Mean, you don't see this decline. The paper also neglects to include any of the direct measurements of the AMOC strength that we have been taking continuously since 2004. The measurements showed a slight decline in the 2000s but the AMOC slowly grew in strength in 2010s (likely just due to natural variability).
This is not to say the paper is wrong. It's a very sophisticated analysis for the most part and can still tell us some interesting things. But the science on AMOC collapse is in no way settled. We have to wait and see.
This is also not to downplay the importance of an AMOC collapse. If the paper turns out to be right or if we don't bring down emissions this century, an AMOC collapse would be absolutely devastating for the exact reasons outlined in the video. All in all, an excellent video and an important discussion but take it with a grain of salt. (shamelessly replying to the top comment to increase visibility lol)
Are they talking about the Gulf Stream?
@@jonathankerr4859 AMOC
It also means the record warm oceans we are seeing now will get exponentially hotter as all that tropical heat will have no where to go. If the oceans die the land dies.
Massive global release of billions of tons of methane will see to that. Another Permian mass-extinction event.
Add the El Nino to the record heat in the oceans then we really in trouble!
And then we get ultra strong hurricanes and the world is f**ked!
There is no excess heat! Just excess stupidity and lack of education!
2011 was the record low polar ice. The ice ages cycles only started when north and south americans join toguether, blocking the old world stream more centralized like in pacific and indic. So this atlantic shape, creates a piston movement on the stream that creates the cycle warm - cold - warm - cold of the north atlatic and polar oceans, afecting the rest of the planet as well. If you watch closely, its only the north pole that are trully warming up, and not the south pole. The atlantic piston cycle. ;) (just a wild thinking that i had 6 years ago)
James Burke revealed this in his series "After the Warming", presented in the late 80's.
I fear the younger generations. We're leaving them a mess and a much harder life than we've had.
Its even worse than that, we are dooming human civilisation to collapse within the lifetime of someone born today.
Nah. We are about to be overtaken by a.i. biggest change in human history ever. Bigger than the discovery of fire. They will be fine.
I will forever remember my Ecology 101 professor in college way back in the early 00s discussing this system and our impact on it, and telling us that every major disruption of the thermohaline circulation is strongly correlated with mass extinction events.
The whole classroom gasped in recognition of just how dire this is, and went silent.
My high school AP physics teacher did a thought experiment like this that left the whole class shaken.
We were calculating the energy input required to phase change ice into water, and then what the water will end up temperature wise with that same continued input.
He applied it to the real with with the artic sea ice, and the arctic sea. The amount of energy we're putting in to the arctic *currently* that's melting ice, increasing the albedo of both water and land, and releasing additional greenhouse gases from the thawing tundra.
Point is, the Arctic ocean will be a balmy 40°C, based on those rudimentary psychic equations, and not including any of those other inputs i listed above.
Should start buying beach front property in Hudson Bay. I'll be a prime beach destination by the end of the century
Sorry you were duped by poorly trained scientists. These are solar affects impacting every other planet in our star system. There are no bbq's taking place on the outer planets, or on Venus and Mercury. And there is literally _nothing_ you or anyone else can do to stop this.
An inconvenient truth
@@TheKamahl07 But, if all of the ice melts, won't your beach property become submerged?
This is also one of the things I strongly remember from Ecology 101 in the early 00s. It was terrifying then and now it is just mind numbing that we are actually approaching this event.
As a Dutch person I am used to mild weather in general, mild summers, mild winters. Although when I was a kid in the 1980s the winters in my country were much more harsh than these days. People here love ice skating on natural ice. This has been done for so many years on canals, lakes and even rivers at time. In the province of Friesland, if weather conditions allowed, we organized a 200km ice skating tour across 11 cities (also known as the "11 cities tour", or "Elfstedentocht" in Dutch. The last time we could do this, and the whole country was sitting in front of the tv watching this event was in January 1997. So imagine, it has been 26 years ago that this thing could be organized. The only plus side of the Gulf-stream slowing down or stopping is that we would be able to skate more often. But in general I doubt it will be good for Western Europe if this ocean cooling/warming effect will diminish.
deze fenomenen is niet zo speciaal, aangezien het vroeger gebeurde maar de mens nog in haar prille begin was gaat men nu moord en brand schreeuwen ofzo? kom zeg! als ons voor ouders dit konden overleven waarom wij niet? hier moet ik hard om lachen! de mens en hun luxe leven is in gevaar! 🙄🤑
Wow! That city tour must have been fanstastic. Here in Ottawa, Canada, we have the Rideau canal. In the '80 we could skate the whole 7 km until we arrived at Dow's lake. In the past years, there is only a small stretch of ice that they can open to skate as it requires constant waterings to try to make a safe thickness, and year after year we see the number of ice skating days diminish. In 2023 I think it was open 11 days. We are losing this wonderfull winter fun.
Interesting story. Thank you for sharing it with us. I have a pond in western ny. 10 years ago it froze enough to skate, but I haven't been able to skate in the last 5 winters. The weather is definitely changing. Climate change occurs over thousands of years so its impossible to tell yet.
I don't think it will get colder like they said, the tendency is actually to get hotter if you look at other interglacial periods of earth history, especially without the artic ice cap. The higher latitudes should expect temperatures to rise really fast in the next few years. Your testimony only confirms it. The climate will be similar to earth 3 to 4 million years ago.
@@TheNewCarryTrade no you are demonstrating the Krueger d u n n i n g effect. Humans are causing the rapid warming of the planet with tremendous amounts of carbon dioxide emissions add roughly 37 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year third year after year after year after year after year. Was becoming less pronounced as the global population was smaller requiring less and less energy every year energy comes from the burning of fossil fuels planet Earth is actually in a greenhouse gas mass extinction event you may not experience the ferocity the storms in heat waves and drought that your children and grandchildren will experience. A high emissions scenario by 2100 will only leave 1 billion humans how to survive on planet Earth. Most humans between the Equator and the 36 chicory latitudes will either die off or migrate North there will be a huge complex over extremely short Water Supplies or famine. This is the reason play all carbon emissions need to come to a stop or at least reduce the output to a level that all forests and all oceans can absorb safely. But I'm not hopeful that's going to happen
Very good. A lot of sceptic don't understand that 70% of the ice in antarctic is fresh water and 70% of that sits above land. So two things contribute to sea rising. Fresh water floating on more dense salt water and ice above land is straight addition rather than displacement for ice floating
My biggest concern is the regional variation of global warming. Too many pundits talk about global temperature instead of regional changes. It is well known that the southern hemisphere and the tropics haven't risen anywhere near as much as the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere especially the artic. In the artic tundra the permafrost contains as much methane hydrate as all the fossil fuels burned in the last 150 years. If methane is released from the permafrost it holds more atmospheric heat 20X, than co2, as much as water vapor. I've never seen a timeline on how much temperature rise will release how much methane. Back to regional variation. Most of the worlds ecosystems/ vegetation zones have a huge shift in seasonal rainfall with dry seasons being part of the cycle. Agriculture depends on these specific rainfall patterns. We in the US especially east of the Mississippi have more moderate high and low range.. The other fear is for Asia. 8 majors rivers come from snow melt of the Himalaysian mountains. If there was only a 20% drop, China, India, Pakistan and Southeast Asia would suffer lower food production. But like you said changes in the AMOC is also a big threat.
I don't know if you knew this but the big concern if AMOC slows a lot is that it might well alter the tropical monsoon, possibly reducing rain for India & Southeast Asia. The cooling of Europe is more certain but the tropical monsoon possibility would have more negative effect than a couple degrees of Europe cooling, if that monsoon change does happen and reduces the rain on land.
I could tell you one that happened over 20 years ago...my dad has been a bayman his whole life. In the late 90's all the lobsters died and my family went broke- my parents had to do everything they could to get together and work that issue out. It was sad the day my father got rid of his lobster boat. He still digs clams and hes almost 70.
FYI he works in the Long Island Sound and out of Cold Spring Harbor.
It's a shame because in reality humanity is a Gargantuous family, but we don't operate as one, so we won't figure it out together like your family did. The "solution" will be individualistic or "tribal" at most
This program YT is another yarn we are doomed our goose is cooked 😢 with a spicy add on swim with the sharks . lobsters wee over fished in many regions so now the lobsters are trapped young in lobster pots and kept and fed fish for months inside the lobster pots and no word from Irish lobster fisher men that lobsters are fished ready cooked or ready frozen in the pots 😂
This program on CZcams forgot to mention there is a expental growth in numbers and size of underwater volcanos as earth splits apart 😮 in the mid Atlantic ridge adding extra heat to north and south Atlantic oceans deep waters . Without inputting these extra heat input numbers this program was just another spooky bed time tall story😮 for the gullible 😂 who will agree to pay the Carbon tax 😢 to the wizard guy behind the curtain too save thier bacon 😅
@@shiningirisheyes Thank you petro bot, I look forward to tomorrow's spam where you blame it on the sun or Earth coming out of an ice age. I can never tell which but it's always fun seeing which zero evidence excuse you paste on shuffle.
@@shiningirisheyesWhat is fascinating to me is how efficient all these underwater volcanos are heating up the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean, the Arctic Ocean, and the Pacific Ocean at the same time. And it's crazy how they are all so silent like sunshine, no big explosions or earthquakes or magma flows or steam or anything. It's crazy too how those underwater silent volcanos seem to be making air temperatures even hotter than the oceans.
Stefan Rahmstorf is one if the leading scientists working on the AMOC so I take note of what he says. The paper sighted at the end with it's alternative explanation for the Cold Blob does not account for the marked rise in sea temperature off the US East Coast which models predict for a slowdown of the AMOC.
Hi Pete, good points here. We really felt that a nod to the evolving nature of science was important. Stefan is featured heavily but there are peer reviewed papers that disagree with his findings and that's part of a healthy scientific process.
Vibes of Cosmos... learn where you are.
Papers get cited, not "sighted".
Fake news
You start to lose hope when you know that so many smart people have been trying to solve this problem for decades yet nothing fundamentally changes and it only gets worse. 😔
speed up ...and let go what isn't to hold. "Hope for... reward" -> is a sick mindset. You know - one might expect reward from work.... The usual outcome of Hope is desperation. Nobody hears your prayers. Hug yourself as strong as you can.
This is the apex of being both smartest creatures on earth and dumbest at the same time
There are a small percentage of humans who are incredibly intelligent, smart and knowledgeable. The vast majority like climate change deniers are incredibly dumb despite having the most complex structure ever found in the Universe inside their skulls.
It’s enraging how many people REFUSE to accept that experts who spend their entire lives studying this issue, but somehow the morons out there dismiss the experts, because, you know, they know better 🤬🙄🤬
Seeng people still completely clueless on global warming is like seeing a tribe that had no contact with civilization somewhere in the Amazon rain forest... hard to believe such a thing is even still possible. Some people must have lived under a rock the last half century.
Which "experts" are you referring to? There are plenty of experts that disagree with much of the current climate scare. If you search for them you can hear what they have to say, but because they don't have huge financial support like the scientist backed by big corporations with agenda's like say BP or Ghislain Maxwell they aren't heard from as much. Or like PBS a gov funded program listening to scientist with gov. grants to study climate change. Now why would any bureaucracy want to spread data that would make it's job obsolete? After all the gov. has spent $1 million to test and see if cocaine would make quail more sexually active. Many of these "experts" pushing this agenda have interesting benefactors.
For example I mentioned BP, did you know BP created the term "carbon footprint" in a campaign to clean up their image after they just had the famous environmental disaster with their offshore oil rig.
I'm all about keeping the planet clean. Always have been. I have come to learn though if there is a way to exploit something, whether it is power or money, someone will use it for their own benefit. The cost on others be damned. Follow the money and you will find answers.
Remember this. Most of the people you see wandering about day to day are really thick. Truly, incredibly thick. And too stupid to realize how thick they are.
ia habit is worn to apiese our beliefs
Climate migration leading to conflict is the most worrisome in my opinion. Subsaharan Africa, South and Central Asia, China, and parts of Europe are likely to be far less habitable. This amounts to more than 25% of the global population. We humans are not very welcoming to migrants now and the numbers are nowhere near what they will be in 100 years.
Climate migration from state to state will happen here. The Midwest will become inundated with climate refugees from coastal areas and the hotter southern tier of states. Where will the breadbasket grow traditional crops with the influx of that many people? We are going to have to get over our fixation with beef, wheat and corn and start growing crops that need less processing, less space and less intensive farming practices. Field corn is really of little use as food without turning it into cattle feed, corn meal and corn syrup. It is too low in nutrition to feed us as is. Refined white flour is labor and space intensive to produce. Cattle simply take up too much room and too many resources, as well as releasing a lot of methane. We will all need a vegetable patch and a few chickens scratching around if we survive the collapse of the ecosystem.
its joever
The prospect of Scandinavia becoming 8 degrees cooler than it is now-that’s scary.
Mark and Jenny you are both spot on. Good observations.
You know there was a time with magnitudes more green house gasses and yet the dinosaurs did fine. Stop the doom and gloom, it's just a power grab
12:08 we're actually here in the Gulf Stream where a lot of sharks gather.
... precedes to jump into the ocean and swim
I like that the first thing your scuba friend tells you on your intro to the dive location is that there are plenty of sharks.... 🦈🦈🦈😂
Its scary to see the whole scientific comunity putting the likelyhood of the scary tipping points closer and closer… the fact that I still have to convince many people around me that this is real and we will all suffer the consequences, triggers me even more
just let the simpletons be, they'll come around when they're ready
To be fair the earth changes all the time. And we have 70 years to adapt. When it starts getting too hot to grow one crop we grow another. One area that was great for fishing may just move down a bit.
No one is convinced because your science is bs .. the earth changes you can't stop that with solar panels or wind turbines
@@Chris-rg6nmoh good. Glad this is actually pretty minor.
Quick, raise taxes! Funny how these scientists and politicians choose to buy oceanfront property
thank you for clarifying that the AMOC =/= the gulf stream and that if the AMOC slows the gulf stream won't disappear (unlike some recent clickbaity news articles)
Yes I agree! The confusion between these things has led me to question the source of the news
If people in England or Scandinavia worry about the Gulf Stream, they aren't thinking about the direction of water surfacer flow in the North Atlantic, they are worried about the warmth it brings. The people who have complained about "AMOC ≠ Gulf Stream" have been more clickbaity than the articles they have criticized.
The heat being shifted around Earth by ocean currents is at czcams.com/video/PE_ELrjDe0E/video.html at 19:33
The heat being shifted around Earth by air currents is at czcams.com/video/SQOIHdlZngk/video.html at 14:25 to 16:55
The latter fluid thermodynamics is what I used July, August 2018 when I amused myself calculating Arctic Ocean warming with the Arctic Ocean sea ice all gone in late March. I calculated just 4% more than the Open Source published paper in June 2019 (that used that CERES analysis in the video but with high tech modeling). Not bad.
If I had a nickel for every time I heard the phrase 'tipping point'... well you get the idea
That cold spot could be the stagnation of the water currents in AMOC. When currents are moving the cold water gets pushed around, but when they slow down the cold water stays in place and gets colder and colder.
Well that's exactly what it is of course except that "stagnation" isn't really the word that's used (same concept though). The water flow has slowed like you said so some more heat is staying to the southwest (you clearly see the Warm Blob) instead of flowing up to the northeast and warming the Cold Blob as fast as it used to. That water is simply running down hill of course (well except that 85% of it is wind driven, unrelated to AMOC). The bit running down hill is filling in the dents left by the deep water heading south of course.
Wow, thanks for repeating exactly what the video says!
My only question about that is why is this happening when thermodynamics dictates that if anything, that blob should be warming like everything else. The cold water should be trying to spread out underneath the warm water rather than pooling up in one place.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not denying that this is an effect of increasing global temperatures. I'm more just kinda confused by it, since it kinda defies physics. Ocean currents are driven by convective processes, so if you add more heat to the hot side of the system if anything it should intensify, as the heat is trying to move into the colder areas so that the system can achieve homeostasis. But this is the opposite of what we're actually seeing.
@@VestedUTuber….as ice from Greenland melts, the meltwater is freshwater and less dense than the sea water so it floats on top of the more dense sea water. This cold water patch is amplified over time and eventually slows the transport of warm water from the south. Eventually, this can result in an Ice Age. This is explained at 4:20.
@@desertsky9886
Except that freshwater doesn't _stay_ freshwater, it eventually mixes with the seawater, and quite quickly for that matter. Plus, if it was just sea melt, the cold blob's concentrations would be at it's highest around Greenland's coastlines, particularly in areas where there are actively melting ice shelves. Instead we're seeing it primarily concentrated in the middle south of Greenland's southernmost tip, so either something's dragging all that freshwater into the blob quicker than the ice is actually melting or there are other factors involved.
It has a lot to do with Greenland melting, and dumping vast quantities of cold, fresh water into the ocean in one place relatively quickly (at least on a geological timescale).
@pequodrequiem681 did either of you actually watch the video? They talked about ice melting in the north Atlantic
Greenland is melting largely from below due to volcanic activity.
@@buzzblitzer750there are zero volcanoes on greenland, read a book 🤦♀️
It's a natural cycle.
@@RealMTBAddict No it's not. It's manmade and denying that is stupid.
We live in the Great lakes region. The intense swings will bring some crazy storms through here, especially when it comes winter
*You were the Jerks who Voted for Trump in 2016!!! You deserve it & I wiLL Laugh!!!!*
I live in Northern Indiana and remember when I was a kid having snow in October, now we are lucky to have winter with any snow at all. Global warming is happening so much faster than ANYONE wants to admit. For anyone today that has young kids consider them the last generation survive on the planet. We have 50 years max but realistically its going to be more like 25 because in about 10 years time the amount of warming will have gotten so bad that runaway effect will have increased so much that about 10 or 15 years after that the earth WILL have become unlivable to the point that unless you are living underground you would not be able to survive. With everything that is going on in the world today and the fact that WW3 seems to be right around the corner, I have come to the sobering reality that maybe this particular planet and its species just wasn't meant to make it.
Human beings are corrupt animals anyway. We want fairness but every system and every avenue of prosperity leads to total corruption
Can you imagine how immensely powerful hurricanes will become if the cooler north Atlantic waters stop flowing south?
You're already seeing it. 2 years ago, we had 4 cat 4 hurricanes at the same time.
@@ronaldflint681 Check the physics. Warmer surface temps create higher winds and stronger storm systems.
@@ronaldflint681 They are! That's why Allstate, Farmer's, Bankers, Lexington, and AAA are ALL cancelling insurance policies in Florida. DERP
No need to imagine. Hurricanes were more destructive and killed more people when Co2 levels were low. This is a documented fact.
@@ronaldflint681 I disagree with you, and so do several multi-billion dollar players. You are a random person on YT. Where is your proof?
This is why Day After Tomorrow is my favorite natural disaster movie.
I feel like the first half of the 21st century will be known as The Period of Innovation, while the second half with be The Period of Repair or correcting mistakes. Undoubtedly the 21st is a time period of unparalleled learning and discovery, we do not always make the best decisions with that knowledge.
This is the scariest thing coming. Around 11,000 BCE an ice dam broke and flooded the Mackinsey River in Canada with a Black Sea-sized lake of Laurentide glacial melt. The Mackensie carrlied that north into the Arctic and then ocean currents took it down past Baffin Island into the Labrador Sea, disrupting the AMOC. This started the Lesser Dryas, many centuries of ice age, a reverse-course when the world was warming.
As a Norwegian who just had his first child this truly scares me. We have always heard of what would happen if it collapses. It was told almost as a scary story around the bonfire. But that its becoming a reality within my lifetime is truly sobering. I think we as a country are about to have a wake up call as it slams in our face.
I can try to help prevent it, but as a citizen... As a father.
I have no idea how to prepare.
Don't let it scare you.
The earth is fine. It's a dynamic planet where sometimes it rains a lot and sometimes not. Sometimes it's unusually hot and swings the other way. Sometimes it's calm and sometimes it storms so bad it kills.
That's how it always has been and will continue to be. Enjoy your new baby and don't lose sleep over the climate. They want you scared to extract money from you, to save you from an imaginary problem.
I just hope my family and I are gone before anything major happens
My parents are in their 70s I don't think they would survive
I'm in my 40s I feel that my generation will see the beginning and be the 1st to try to adapt and survive.
Are you noticing any climate changes?
@@lennonwilson6407 yea ... the damn heat here in Texas... seems like every 10 or 15 yrs it gets hotter...I remember back in the 80s you actually wanted to go out and play now it's just miserable insufferable heat..plus I have inte to leave this future "death valley" and leave somewhere up north or just maybe to another country.
All we can do is teach our children well, teach them to grow and respect nature, and to love and care for one another, much love from father to father!
Ice core samples do show that just before the last Ice Age, there was a warming, that became a "run away warming" and then suddenly, the temperature dropped by as much as 6º within two years, then it rose again, up and down, extreme highs to extreme lows, within two or three years. After a few cycles, less than twenty years altogether, the temperature dropped drastically and didn't came back up again, until the Ice Age was over. It was theorized at that that the warming had caused the collapse of the ocean currents as you have described.
That was the theory that was pseudo used for the movie “day after tomorrow”. They of course bastardized it but still
Ask I pressed submit, she mentioned the movie lol
I suppose pre ice age man cooking their sabre tooth tiger steaks were to blame for global warming prior to the last ice age.
If you look carefully at the graphs from ice core samples that show temperature, CO2 and methane, you will see that in EVERY CASE where there was a spike in temperature, the first thing to rise was not CO2, it was Temperature, followed by CO2.@@stevenhull5025
I have been reading everyone’s responses till I came across your comment. Finally someone who I can agree with because it’s so true.
If you look carefully at the graphs of ice core information that shows temperature, CO2, and methane, you will see that every time there is up ward movement, it ALWAYS begins with temperature, followed by CO2, and then methane. I think the Sun is the primary driver. It is well known that the more sunspot, the more energy the sun is putting out; and that the "Little Ice Age," as its called, from 1300 to 1850 AD, was the result of the lack of sunspots, that is now called the Maunder Minimum. We are now in a sunspot cycle that was expected to be on the low side, but is much higher than expected. @@kennethsnyder9236
There is so much I need to process from this video, probably because I'm unfamiliar with the topic. I have a pocket notebook with me, and I'm jotting packets of info down. What a complex topic!
Random Television Line:
“People call me Dave.”
I love when scientists just say fuck it and name something “cold blob” 🤘🏼
I think that an AMOC collapse can lead to a serious reduction in phytoplankton growth, because of ocean water stratification preventing the upwelling of nutrients from the deep. Not only are phytoplankton key producers of organic molecules - food for organisms at higher trophic levels (e.g. for the fish we eat) - in the ocean biome, but they are also responsible for about 50% of the oxygen production on Earth!
I live in NC. I saw a documentary once that said the Gulf Stream brings tropical warmth, and without it NC might have weather like Wisconsin.
I realise you are a US company but it would be great to cover the whole world, including Southern hemisphere in your maps/predictions. We're concerned about this in Australia as well. I particularly wanted to see about the monsoon belt dropping but Australia was cut off the map.
Search OECD tipping points, their 2022 report has the maps for shift in rainfall and temperature for AMOC collapse plus links to papers.
Yes! Also be interested to know what's happening to the ocean currents around Antartica and how they'll affect the Southern Hemisphere.
@@OldOneTooth thanks!
It's where it is because it's on the equator, it ain't going anywhere unless Earth's axis of rotation changes
"For years, we operated under the belief that we could continue consuming our planet's natural resources, without consequence. We were wrong. I was wrong."-Vice President Becker, _The Day After Tomorrow_
Hi PBS Terra, thank you very much for doing this detailed and coherent video, this style of presentation satisfies my desire for consistency coherence and logic, that subtle combination of hypothesis and evidence, those complex relationships between the many conflicting and contributing factors, elements and forces.
Given that the two primary forces, heat and gravity, interact in global dynamic systems with materials of differing heat capacity and density a high level of complexity is to be expected and so accurate predictions very difficult, what cannot be contested is that there will be significant changes in global climate and there is a history of such changes are sometimes dramatic. Calculations of temporal probability are really of academic interest only, knowing exactly when these changes are occurring is more than enough for us to respond appropriately.
Cheers, Richard.
Most AI software strings together pointless phrases better than the one doing this thread
We’re sitting in a place where sharks gather…
Ok we’re in the water 😕🤨
I’ve seen more storms/tornadoes/flooding in Appalachia already. Isn’t that ocean current a trade route too? If winds/infrastructures get altered/broken we will experience gaps in power/internet/trade which our economy relies on. Theres so many consequences it’s terrifying.
The UK has been stuck in this cold blob all month,
Literally no direct sun light for a month in Scotland,
just a thick blanket of cloud cover.
As we share the north poles Jet stream (cold blob)
I actually went for a Swim in the north sea last week, as it was a weird warm day
But still dark skys, but first day with no wind.
Your heat wave mid summer still scorched the top of the thick Dark blanket of cloud.
Giving an eerie glow and temperatures above the teens°
I'm in Michigan and I've spent my entire life outdoors fishing and hunting. I've been watching the weather since the early 1980's. One of my favorite activities is ice fishing. In the 1980's and 90's we could drive our cars on the great lakes. The lakes froze by mid December and thawed in late March. The coastguard had to use ice breakers to open the shipping lanes. In the early 2000's the lakes didn't freeze until the 2 week of January and thawed in late Febuary. The past 10 years the lakes barely freeze. No major snow storms in SE Michigan in 20 years. Nothing in comparison to the 80's and 90's. It still gets cold and it still snows but not like it used to.
If the AMOC stops, power, internet or trade will the least of your concern. A temperature drop of 15 °C can be expected in Europe. This alone will wreck havoc globally.
Do you really want to live forever, forever young 🌊 🌍 🔥
Not the only issue we are dealing with. The Earth's magnetic field is exponentially weakening as time goes on. The EMF acts as a protective shield in relation to Solar and cosmic energies/events.
As the EMF gets weaker and weaker, it becomes more and more probable that a strong Solar storm (very strong solar CME, or multiple moderate ones) will take out the currently fragile electrical grids. If that happens, that means a complete collapse of this civilization.
Indeed, we are already seeing in this past few years, minor to moderate Solar events sparking auroras further and further south, and causing significant geomagnetic storms, when even 20 to 30 years ago, these events wouldn't have done either of these. Again, because of how fast the earth's magnetic field (EMF) is weakening.
But this is not as well known or talked about because well, it is scarier and you can't blame humans for it. It is out of our control completely and utterly.
Remember who did this. When you’re hungry, eat the rich
The personal thing that opened my eyes was mom's old gardening book from 1954. My planting zone increased by 20 degrees since my birth in 1954.
They can talk 2 degrees C all they want, but 20 degrees F in MY garden is extreme. Our pinyon-juniper forest ecosystem is edging up to collapse.
My usda map says zone 6B, but I haven't had a zone 6B winter since I moved here 10 years ago. Mostly zone 8 or 9.
I keep expanding my prickly pear fruit orchard, and see what nature brings for dinner. I thought I was going to lose my pinyons during last summer's heat domes, but only lost one. 5 weakened trees.
This past summer there was a die off of saguaro cacti in Phoenix. It was too hot for too long for CACTUS
@@UnknownPascal-sc2nkI saw that. Under phoenix's 110 heat dome, at 7000ft I topped at 93. Still dry. I moved here 10 years ago, the best I could manage. Our pinyons will die when it gets bit hotter.
You know, I’m something of a cold blob myself…
I'd love to hear about impacts like this on pacific regions.
Depending on your location rising levels and a much more interesting monsoon season
We likely got an inkling of that last week.
All nth Hemisphere population will be trying to squeeze themselves into your region, 1billion chyna man in the Pacific countries, NICE... 👍😳😁
Look up climate impact maps. There are many for a variety of topics and under a variety of circumstances, temperature and sea level rise in particular but you can also find changes in precip and wildfire risk
This is an interesting program re temps in the pacific (I live in Australia) czcams.com/video/KtjeNvTwYeU/video.htmlsi=QsypygRMjsokKOMv
My concern about this situation is that whilst the media and governments play lip service to change, they're ultimately more concerned with profits, which drives consumption, and so far from seeing any changes in emissions, we see that year on year they rise.
It’s not just politicians, everybody is paying lip service to it. NOBODY is prepared to change their way of life; the only way is for the world, meaning globally and in unison to change - because some won’t do it while others do not; people are too selfish in that regard and won’t sacrifice unless everybody does.
In the UK with Covid restrictions, the law was changed and people followed it. Only with laws, regulations and enforcement will people change because we need to be made to do it, we are too self centred to do it ourselves.
I agree, but without leadership people won't change, they might resent and oppose it, but it's simply not happening; and in the meanwhile yet more oil rigs and coal mines are opened, I never realised until recently the scale of coal mining and fracking in the US, let alone China, (who everyone loves to pass the blame onto.) Year on year more things are unnecessarily wrapped in plastic, almost all clothes are made of nylon, people have little choice in these matters, and it's all to benefit oil companies. Not that even they will ultimately benefit, but they're too blinded by greed and power to see their own evil stupidity, so they, with complicit media and governments keep the people as ignorant and stupid as they are.@@techyd8411
Well… unless we are prepared to let billions of people die across the world. All it will be is lip service. At the most we will get a turtles pace of change.
Consumption is actually dropping thanks to low wage growth, inflation and increasing interest rates
@@techyd8411 shifting the blame to regular, everyday people with all the concerns but no power is not it. This isn't about personal responsibility. It's about holding corporations and government accountable.
Thanks for a very intersting explanation. What totally astounds me, or perhaps it should not really) is that despite all the overwhelming evidence that we ALL can see before our very eyes there is STILL nothing being done to change our part and there are still "experts" arguing that the evidence "may not" be proof of the trouble ahead...... . THAT IS THE TRULY SCARY aspect of the whole situation. The Naysayers say Nay and they hold sway..... but very VERY soon the Itoldyousos will have the last "hurrah" as we all go down with the sinking ship.
Now we need a study very quickly to see what the current year of 2023 massive forest fires around the globe have done to CO2 levels all that solid carbon of which Trees are made has been released in one very hot summer and is still ongoing.......
Yes except Trees aren't made of solid carbon of course. Also, the big issue isn't what you, and everybody I've seen or heard except me, keep parroting about. They're both issues but the big issue, at least for my country Canada, isn't the wildfires adding CO2 in the air but rather the Sun taking CO2 out of the air and putting it into trees more than before. Where on Earth do people (except me) think the FUEL for wildfires comes from ? I'm listening in disbelief to fire chief "experts" saying they can't understand why wildfires burn fiercer, hotter, than before. When a vast amount of carbon from 300 million years is put into the air ready for the relentless Sun to convert it into wildfire fuel then what on Earth did they expect to happen ? Nothing ?
oh I know trees are not "solid" carbon. I should have made that clearer maybe. It does not really matter as there is a far deadlier, silent, tasteless, odorless and invisible to you or I, threat to all life on our planet that has spread to 97% of the entire world or maybe its actually 100% but the media have not mentioned it.... yet.
Canada a beautiful country and a place I wish I lived @@grindupBaker
Climate change will cause immigration, or climate refugees, to move from the hotter regions to the cooler regions. The real question no one can answer, how will climate change affect food production?
Not just hotter to cooler, also cooler to hotter. At least 500 million people will need to move due to going from mild to near freezing down to below freezing temps, and those already at below freezing will likely need to move closer to food sources as the sea ice will become even thicker which will cut off the northern territories from their current fishing and hunting regions. It's not clear in this video but the "comfortable" habitable belt will shrink by 20-40% very quickly after such an event, and it's highly likely that the belt will be split in the middle by immense heat.
Food production is probably the easiest thing to guess at, most regions will need to change their crops, animals and production chains, many will no longer be viable, specifically in the centre of that previously mentioned belt, but also the northern regions. Global food production would probably be cut in half for several decades unless we do massive ecological engineering projects on scales we have never attempted before. This likely wouldn't matter too much though as people would be moving closer to food production anyways, one of the biggest issues right now is just getting the food to the people that need it, starvation could be completely eliminated if we could just manage food transportation and waste better.
It’s been answered many times. It will effect a LARGE amount of crops, many crops we know and love gone. And so much land lost.
dude this is perfect, all going according to plan
well any crops that are sensitive to heat will need to be grown somewhere else and you will have less land near the equator to grow food
well…to the point of starvation. it’s not even a « future » consequence, it already started many countries are facing extreme shortages, a lot of people have died from starvation due to the inaccessibility of food and water due to cost or insufficient supply.
What is amazing is no matter what the universe throws at the earth life continues in the end. With all what we`ve seen in past history it seems unreal life is still going on despite what has happened in the past.
There also is going to be a effect this winter. Even today there is smoke in the air from Canada. Black absorbs heat. It also radiates it. IN 31 days Anything above 45 Degrees latitude will radiate more heat than it absorbs in those huge tracks of burn areas. Those areas are down wind from The Bearing sea and the Gulf of Alaska. So might get colder than -40 in Yellow Knife this winter.
Why no F or C? -40 is the same on both thermometers.
If it dips into the Great Lakes. Those will freeze over. All of them? Then then the ice breaker will be working non stop next winter.
This area is colder because that is where all the icebergs start out when they melt off the glaciers in Greenland.
That's why it's getting colder as the melting is speeding up.
I have found evidence (unpublished) that the 8200 Yr Cooling Event was part of an unexpectedly complex series of events which included a 110-year collapse of the AMOC. More recent research shows that in Northern Ireland that collapse caused rapid outcomes including cooler than 0°C every month of the year, beginning immediately after... most likely making all of northern Europe uninhabitable in those times. No crops, no leafy trees for mammal foraging, etc. Scientists should evaluate the surface current coming down the Davis Strait as a potential forcer.
Seams like a self fixing problem, the amac stops the north freezes and it starts up again
No…. AMOC isn’t helpful for the loss of sea ice
Never even remotely I’d be living through and witnessing the first part of the 6th extinction. I believe it will go much faster than people realized due to a domino effect of interdependent systems collapsing.
And the Darwin Award goes to ✉️ …. Homo sapiens! Congratulations 🎉
I am glad to hear about the cold blob. This is the first time that I have heard so much about it. The behavior of our marine life is very apparent this year.
World got a record heat wave,
Scotland got a month of no direct sunlight.
Just a Thick blanket of cloud.... For a Month.
We are sharing north poles cold Jet stream.
Climate change is b.s.
It’s all about controlling your money, what you think and where you go and how to still more of your money.
I find troubling that it's a constant reference to emissions. I find more intense heating without a commensurate cooling due to rapid development of cities, deforestation, development by means of defacing natural spaces instead of 're-development' (removing and rebuilding in existing areas). Case in point is the massive growth of Texas cities which are linked by air and massive highway systems. Ranches and green areas being stripped bare to add apartments, concrete and asphalt pads and so on, plus add all the air conditioners compressors/heat pumps running all day and night- the heat domes are just like those on top of a computer's CPU which require massive cooling systems. Computers have those our our cities don't. You can cut emissions, but politicians and citizens need to come up with a better way to accommodate human growth/housing and commercial construction. They typically won't until 1) it's a crisis and 2) not on my watch/pass it to someone else. Even Chinese cities are at record temperatures more than ever before- and its not cars- it's massive, heat-retaining/heat-producing sprawl.
Even dogs are smart enough not to poop in their own food bowl (but not humans). Perhaps we should put them in charge for a while... It never ceases to amaze that greed and stupidity are at the heart of almost every one of human kind's greatest challenges.
this video should be a required watch
Most scientists think the situation is linear, but I have a suspicion that the situation is parabolic... that means that suddenly, things are speeding up. Think of it as a rock avalanche. It starts with a tiny rock, then two... four and suddenly, the whole thing comes down...
but why?
@@UhtredOfBamburgh It was never going to be permanent to begin with. When an ice age happens the water level drops, and when the ice recedes the water level goes back up. That alone means any particular ocean current will only ever be temporary. Picture having a powered fan blowing into a streamer, and then slowly turn the fan until it's hitting the wall behind the streamer and bouncing back. The streamer was being blown one way, and is now being blown another, because of just a small change in the fan's direction.
@@chad_bro_chill No, why is it "linear" instead of "parabolic"
There is a whole field of study for systems. Including climate change.
So scientists are working on this and most know it isn't linear.
Systems tend to keep stable longer when destabilization happens, but fall very fast once the tipping point is crossed.
“Most scientists think the situation is linear” not at all true. Climate scientists are well aware of nonlinear relationships and tipping points
I'm more concerned by the prospect of our magnetic field flipping. Perhaps we should be preparing GPS systems to deal with such an event?
So the AMOC has slowed since the 1920's according to the data. Yet as someone who grew up in north Sweden 40 years ago, winters have only gotten milder. It now sometimes never snows until January up there. And if you live in south Sweden, its unlikely you will see snow at all during winter. It was much colder before... so if it all of a sudden collapses, it will just go back to "normal" i guess?
An excellent presentation. Mankind bringing disaster first upon the world's ecosystems, plants and animals, and then of course upon itself. We did well there!
It's all lies. And we are part of natures eco system, she created us
Only man’s insufferable ego would lead him to think he’s is the omnipotent force behind this change. Humanity treads water in a sea of dynamic and powerful forces. Civilizations have risen and collapsed MANY times more than our global-elite controlled narrative would have us believe. C02 has extremely limited greenhouse effect over 400 ppm and we know that C02 has been many times higher than that over the millennia, perhaps due to dinosaurs driving very large SUVs.
*_'MANITY!!_*
The oceans are doing it. Water Vapor (WV) is a greenhouse gas as potent as CO2 according to theory. On average there is 50 times as much WV in the atmosphere as CO2.
The fact that it is non -persistent is often mentioned. It doesn't have to be. You can AVERAGE (integrate) the effect. There is on AVERAGE 50 times as much.
The oceans must be drained.
How do you know they are the hottest temps? Ever heard of the 400 year cycles?
We still have tons of work to do on educating the general population. The other day, I just had a conversation where a guy said that carbon is good for the environment and that the hole in the ozone layer was a good thing because "even a fireplace has a flute! Hot air needs someplace to go!" It was very disheartening hearing someone my age have that loose of a grasp on science.
Thanks for that comment. Yes, it is really sad. Sleep well America!
(sorry, just assumed it was US, I live in the US so I can completely relate. But perhaps this is a global phenomenon as well.. god, I hope not!)
I have been suspecting that the monsoon (we call it the Wet) has already begun to drift to the South in Australia.
Warmest temperatures ever.... So warmer than when the dinosaurs walked the earth? Asking for a friend.
Is the ecosystem today able to adapt to a rapid change from an Interglacial period into a non ice age period? No.
The dinosaurs adapted in a non ice age, meaning they are used to that intense heat. This is a rapid change from our ice age (yes, where in an ice age, the presence of large ice sheets prove that) into a temperate period without any time to adapt.
This will literally fuck the world and ecosystems over so many times that I’m surprised if biodiversity stays at a high rate.
Not only do the oceans retain heat, but they're also one of the biggest carbon sinks on Earth.
Not when they warm up.
Carbon is the basic building block of everything that has mass and magnitude in our physical universe.
@@denniskartes1302 That isn't how mass works at all. Carbon is ONE ELEMENT. It isn't the particle responsible for mass. There is no carbon in Hydrogen, another element with fewer particles than Carbon.
Zis is ze german coastguard, vat ar yu sinking about?
@@denniskartes1302 where do you get all that confidence to make statements like that when you have no qualifications to what you are even talking about? Is this what they call the Dunning-Kruger effect?
Biggest fear is the connection the AMOC has on other key tipping points. Aside from the cooler northern hemisphere, it's not going to stop overall global warming, in fact given the statement about the carbon sink, it's going to make it worse. Potentially much worse. In other words, the AMOC could be the lynchpin tipping point which locks in the rest.
I hear you. But remember that at this point, humans still have the most impact on our climate than any tipping element so we do have some power to change the outcome.
Thanks. I hear you too. My adjoining fear is the forecast for 2024. The El Nino currently underway is going to turbocharge the temperatures for next year. Could 2024 be the straw that breaks Greenland's back? For the record, not a scientist, just a fascinated cynical optimist (It's a thing!)@@pbsterra
There are a few potential cold bomb triggers. Unleashing a new ice age is a potential demonstrated in some models. That the IPCC didnt use the full CMIP 6 data set (they said they would, and now say again they will for CMIP 7).
@@pbsterra we are ants. It's the sun.
For the USA peoples, "the wheels on the bus go round and round."
No need to worry:
The AMOC is not the gulf stream and the AMOC stopping would not mean that the gulf stream would stop.
The gulf stream is caused by the rotation of the earth.
czcams.com/video/tnVWUIhQ8dE/video.htmlsi=Mn10fDZWbeBYLcvl&t=644
"The gulf stream is caused by the rotation of the earth". Completely wrong and is what happens when bods with about zero brain function watch a description of some physical science, it's all completely beyond their brain function like it was yours. Stefan says that even though AMOC is only 52% of the Gulf Stream it carries far more heat than the gyre part because it returns a few degrees colder. "caused by the rotation" it amuses me that humans consist mostly of Parrots with Parrot brains (a meme a day) rather than mostly of Humans with Human brains.
We cannot do anything to change the earth cycle, all we can do is observe and adapt...
10:40 with that trajectory in mind, i wonder how that might be impacted even further by the disapearance of permafrost worldwide. As many have said the last year, most predictions have been replaced by worse once.
The methane bomb will soon follow. Up to 1.5c additional in warming.
I heard that the shifting/movement of the magnetic poles also have an influence - is this correct?
I looked at the earth on the thumbnail and I was like: "Where the fak is this? Oh wait, it's a fake map."
I think the greatest impacts are whenever people have volunteered to repair or replace native ecosystems so that nature has a chance of recovering, and to turn farms into ecosystems so that they can sustain themselves better, and when plastics in our oceans and streams are removed permanently. This ecosystem, as imperiled as it is, is also resilient as it is a fractal ecosystem, made out of countless smaller ecosystems, comparable to the Mandelbrot set. Currently, for instance, four dams in the Klamath river in California and Oregon are being removed for fish passage, and the ecosystems which once were will be rebuilt.
Good post! And it reminds me of how bad I felt for those people who have been successfully planting baby corals for several years now, only to have ocean temps reach record highs this summer and bleach them all. Hopefully some coral species will be resilient enough to recover, but still, I'd be in tears if I were them (and they probably were).
You hope you can rebuild them. In reality corporate broke them make them pay to fix it and they will stop 🛑 screwing things up so the bottom line is profitable. But until they pay for their mistakes themselves nothing will change. When the military industrial complex can't make money on war, war will stop. We are just a herd of animals the push where they want us to go and what to buy so they can live any way they want.
we will also see less free wifi as the mills that power them are under more strain due to the more frequent change in temperature
Farms already are ecosystems, and farmers spend a significant amount of time under microscopes and testing their soil chemistry to make sure they have an optimum ecosystem to grow the most amount of food in the least amount of space.
@@LaOwlett Sure, many farms are operated that way NOW, but it didn't used to be that way.
"When the last tree is cut, the last fish is caught, and the last river is polluted; when to breathe the air is sickening, you will realize, too late, that wealth is not in bank accounts and that you can’t eat money."
Aboriginal North American saying.
The only way the AMOC will stop is if the Arctic is ice free...If the Arctic is ice free, its because its too warm...winters in the Northern hemisphere would therefore be massively warmer than now, so we wont need the AMOC...
Without AMOC the gulf stream will INCREASE as there would be no competing flow. Natural convection from warm equatorial waters to colder polar waters will ALWAYS continue. If you add in the increased heat absorbed by lack of reflective ice at the pole it would seem that AMOC shutting down would be hugely beneficial, bring it on.
"Without AMOC the gulf stream will INCREASE" is senseless rubbish. "Natural convection from warm equatorial waters to colder polar waters will ALWAYS continue" might or might not be correct but is certainly a bold assertion from somebody (you) who has never determined the density on a geoid of the Atlantic, let alone published a paper on it, nor even thought about it beyond infantile superficiality. All in all worthless babbling.
Have we resumed seeding "hopefully clean this time" clouds over the ocean yet? I know that previously the ocean liners and barges burning crude fuels were unintentionally seeding clouds and when that stopped due to changes in law we saw a dramatic increase in ocean temperature.
No mention of how clean energy policy is causing the exact opposite conditions we would like to see.
@@richardlewis1091 Well discussing it opens a can of worms that allows efforts to be attacked by the uninformed but... it'd be climate suicide to ignore that we could assuredly be seeding clouds out of materials that aren't harmful to the planet.
Pretty sure Hank Green has a good informational video on this very topic.
czcams.com/video/dk8pwE3IByg/video.htmlsi=Wzm7JJJN_7BBVJEo
I live in Germany and really prefer not to experience Canada like weather, as my latitude actually should experience if it weren’t for the warming effect of AMOC…
Time to move to Western Canada eh!
@@d.g.rohrig4063 There's only so much room on the northern west coast of North America, and they also have much bigger forest fires than here in Germany.
but there still is the warmer temperature in general, in summers it might not get as cold. also, i prefer colder winters (not wantig to say that I want the amoc to collapse) because then finally some of the thermophilic neobiota and neophytes don't spread here.
@@d.g.rohrig4063
Is BC still burning?
One thing I noticed that was not mentioned is the impact on food production. More hurricanes and tornadoes in the plains of the US very well could degrade the ability to produce corn and wheat. Also, with increased temperatures will come higher humidity levels changing the liveability of some coastal areas with a resulting migration. All-in-all, personally, I think the human race is screwed. We've had a good run but I think our time is up.
We deserve what happens ! 😢
That’s the sad and uncomfortable truth
The US government run by the CIA cartel has shut down food production in the US and other countries.
The heat dome is already baking the crops as we speak.
What about food production? Food production is the highest in world history. We have survived natural disasters thanks to fossil fuels.
I love the scary music, as if a colder planet is better for life.
Oceans are heating up because of elevated underwater volcanic activity, that in turn warms the atmosphere.
The frightening thing is we do not have any measure of how this will impact civilizations since nothing like this has occurred while we existed. So we can make predictions and expectations. The issue that makes it compounding is all the things we have not yet considered.
It has occurred several times since the last ice age i think the video said. Not sure who said it but it has happened and it lasted a millennia
Watch The Collapse of Civilizations, it gives some ideas. I am only up to episode 9.
I assume civilizations will collapse to a great die off since there won't be anywhere to go. I work on my self-sufficiency skills, which not only can't hurt, it is improving my life today.
Cold snaps, flooding from heavy rains, droughts happening at the wrong time can drastically reduce food harvesting. Changing weather patterns can create big problems. Mass migration is already happening in some areas. Look for this to increase. It's not just climate. Toxic chemicals are polluting our farm lands and drinking water.
so you totally ignore why Vikings migrated go read some books
It happened around 11000bc and we are just starting to find evidence of civilisations existing before that. So yes, it happened to us before but cancel culture got rid of all the knowledge we had back then. And by cancel culture I mean romans burning alexandria's library and european tribes burning roman books, christians burning arab books...it's been happening for a long time and we end up making the same mistakes over and over.
The planet will be just fine, humanity on the other hand…
8:09 that right there would reduce 70% of hurricanes for the atlantic hurricane season if that were to happen since most hurricanes form from the african monsoon. Many eastern pacific hurricanes form from these same tropical waves and that basin would also be impacted and decreased activity.
I live in a place that according to my nana, a few decades ago regularly got frost. Now, you never see frost.