Antarctica latest research: Doomsday Glacier ice shelf will be gone in 5 years!
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- čas přidán 16. 06. 2024
- Antarctica is a 'game of two halves'. East Antarctica is a mile thick ice sheet on top of solid bedrock. But the ice on West Antarctica sits precariously above and below the sea line on a series of islands. The country sized glaciers on it's outer edges, that keep the ice flow at bay, have been receding for years, but now new research has shown the disintegration of Thwaites, or Doomsday, Glacier is accelerating fast.
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Hi folks. The eagle eyed among you will have spotted that at around 6:25 in the video there is an animation of the Thwaites Ice shelf which is labelled "Eastern Ice Sheet". This is INCORRECT. The label should read "Eastern Ice Shelf". I realise it looks like a small distinction but it is a very important one. Apologies for this error. All the best. Dave
"I realise it looks like a small distinction". Ice sheet 192,000 km**2, 435,000 billion tonnes (53% above sea level). It's TEIS ~1,500 km**2, quick compute ~600 billion tonnes, something like that. Reminds me of the arguments with the Missus about what''s big and what''s actually rather small. Instant edit: 483,000 billion km**3 == 435,000 billion tonnes.
Last year was the coldest year on record in Antarctica, did that help? Also perhaps you could do an update on the "dying" Great Barrier Reef that also just broke its record for the greatest extent of living coral ever recorded?
@@CandideSchmyles "Last year was the coldest year on record in Antarctica, did that help?" ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC INSIGHTFUL QUESTION and the answer is DEFINITELY YES, it is utterly definite that Antarctica is shedding ice faster and will continue to shed it faster specifically because Antarctica is now too cold. Mister Think touched on part of it at 4:15 to 4:30 but with only a brief partial explanation. My full, perfect technical explanation (from expert scientists, not me) is in a comment down here. It's that Antarctica now has (hang onto you hat) Not-Wonky-Enough-And-Too-Strong-Tight-And-Steady-Jet-Stream. Antarctica needed its previous Wonkier Jet Stream to hang onto all of its previous ice. Simples !
This is like the 3rd time in last few decades someone has cried wolf. czcams.com/video/ixVHRp5S9Pc/video.html
@Toughen Up, Fluffy You stick to the dogma, I'll stick to reality.
"Faster than previously expected" now included in every news story.
Proves that the human modeling of vast environmental conditions are limited, not accurate, presumptive and beyond our current ability to correctly assess.
Jeff - no it means traditional scientist conservatism is being exposed.
@@planetvegan7843 Hmm, I'm not sure that claiming all Scientists or previous Scientific interpretation of environmental variables are politically Conservative. I don't think David Suzuki with his 25 million dollar net worth and mansion of a house is a Republican. I think it's far more likely that humans just don't have a current understanding to how illimitable the titanic processes we have observed for less than a century really are.
The words "Unprecedented" and "record breaking" too... we see a lots of those on news
@@ikenosis8160 proves that we are being fed bs...
I was in the Antarctic in the summer of 1983/1984 on an Argentine navy icebreaker. We sailed in bith sides of the Antarctic peninsula resuplying our many bases. Took tons of photographs. I have compared my photographs with recent ones. The difference is striking: less ice, less snow. A huge difference. All in a lifetime.
Not good. 26% of my country already is under sea level, and is heavily protected. Most people live in the lower regions. Our queen is Argentinian btw.
@@Nobody-iy6tm The name Royal is ditched because Shell isn't Dutch/British anymore, it's British now, and it never was mine. Shell contributed $30 million tax to the Netherlands, that's less than $2 a person, it's the shareholders that profit. I don't even have a drivers license. The 12.2% is of Dutch total exportproducts, not of worldwide mineral fuels/oil export. The Netherlands is high on many exportproducts, that's because it has big ports. A lot of products that are exported, are imported first, so not always produced in the Netherlands.
I really enjoy your channel. The way you explain, the details you provide, your diagrams and animations, and even your tone of voice, make the videos a pleasure to watch. Thank you.
Thank you very much! I really appreciate your feedback :-)
,2027 ?Lots of info on climatic changes ,theories and rhetoric.
A Bright Day Is Done was written in the 80's,can't fathom how scientist could have written near accurate info on c/c, what's happening now.
Aware the ice_capped regions would change, the first period in the US ,major disasters etc,in the first period.
Second period,which seems to beginning, era of greatest destruction, they predict etc.
If one research on what has been written,climatic changes has always happened ,every 700 mill yrs the poles changes,what,s now the South pole,was once the North pole etc
Changes are no strangers to planet/E.
@@JustHaveaThink Why do we keep breaking cold records when we have Global warming?
@@theoriginalkeepercreek. it’s the global annual average temperature trend that’s the problem though people and crops will suffer from extreme weather events. The cold records are short local events usually from things like the polar air being pushed south by warm weather from the other side and a wavier jet stream caused by the rapidly warming arctic being less different from the mid latitudes. There will be more extreme events of all kinds but fewer cold and more hot.
@@lrvogt1257 czcams.com/users/Suspicious0bservers Ben is the Person that has this channel. He is one of the most knowledgeable people when it comes to the Sun and effects on earth. The sun cycles are what control us. Have you been to his channel?
One concern I have not seen much if any debate about is the land we will have to leave behind is some of the most industrial wastelands we have - major cities, petrochemical plants etc.. High level of pollution to the ocean is almost impossible to avoid.. Would be nice to get some data on this part of the equation - especially held against the different scenarios as to how fast we have to clean up - if anyone take this responsibility - something I sadly think will not happen besides a few countries doing superficial attempts to satisfy some very small voter groups.
Yes indeed, and we may also consider that most nuclear power plants are situated at the waterfront of a sea.
I have always complained that we won't do anything until we all stand in water up to the waist, but maybe flooded nuclear power plants will be enough to finally get us going.
@@upstream1942 Yes, that's a good point. I used to think that Japan was overreacting a bit after Fukushima (I don't deny it was a major environmental disaster and a financially colossal one) by turning its back on nuclear, but in the context of fairly rapid sea rise potentially happening far sooner than expected and to a greater degree, it might be a prudent move.
,
@@brianmcguigan4785 i agree
We're going to leave a hellish radioactive world for future generations. A bit unsettling.
Its all fine. Stop worrying and just Don't Look Up.
And in the case of Antarctica, just Don't Look Down.
This comment scares me 😭😭, that movie was truly tragic
Some people may not know what latent heat is and that is a change of state not necessarily of temperature.
And when it happens it happens very rapidly.
Absolutely correct. You only have to watch ice cubes melt rapidly on a hot summers day in your bourbon on the rocks to realise how quickly civilisation will be inundated by rising sea levels.
Outstanding illustrations of what's going on beneath the glacier. Best I've ever seen.
Thanks. I appreciate your feedback :-)
I am so pleased that others also value your channel with patreon
Yea, seeing how well this channel and others are supported with patreon really warms my heart.
I think the people who care most about climate change have realized that allowing big companies to support the news channels has made their reporting biased.
Appreciate all the detail! Magnitudes better than the main stream media coverage.
Well communicated with clear informative graphics. The previous related video is worth watching as well. The message I took was the quickening of the doomsday glacier to release and melt is happening, and the probability of significant rise of ~meter of sea level should worry coastal dwellers and insurance underwriting alike.
Thank you for another excellent, informative non biased video.
Well like the man who fell from a very tall building and thought on the way down......'Everything seems OK so far'?
Looool. I think I'm more concerned about trapped gigatons of methane under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.
Yes and then he passed a guy going the opposite direction and thought, “I’m glad that I didn’t buy a gas barbecue!”
Stopping global warming is fool's job at best.
@@vironpayne3405 I agree. I'll be flabbergasted if someone we all averted the projected warming.
They say theres a huge movement coming to revert things to a certain extent... you can be part of it somehow if you want
czcams.com/video/hyT-6qiubd0/video.html
Explained very well, thank you. I recently watched a panel on these very factors, and this study. It was about an hour long--maybe in fact one of your sources linked below. You are succinct, yet thorough. When I try to explain this issue to people I don't think most of them would hang with the panel of scientists I watched, so your 12 minute take is most welcome.
You might like my channel too :)
It‘s always a pleasure to see bad knews so well presentet!
Thank you. That was the aim of the video, so I'm delighted to hear it was successful :-)
Volcano
Volcano
North Carolina has a law where it isn't allowed to talk about sea level rise when it comes to homes at the beach. It's bad for business lol.
😊
Your Channel is my favorite Dave- Never miss an episode! 😊
Depressive, but important information. Keep up the good work.
Climate activists love depression. You are revelling in the fact that you are all going to die every 12 years.
Good work? Nothing but nonsense!
depressive for cult members of a religion, yes
Well that sucks but mybe when a big chunk of it goes away people will pull heads out of buts and do something more productive and less destructive.
Thanks for another great video Dave, on such an important topic!
Fantastic explanation with engaging graphics. Thanks for all your efforts to break down this data in a comprehensible way.
Thanks for the reminder. 30 years ago, I was warning people about the climate crisis and routinely mocked and derided for it. 20 years ago, the narrative of sea level rise began gaining traction in the media and a lot of people were like, well, that won't affect me. I tried to explain that it wasn't just sea level rise, but drought, famine, pestilence and super storms and was roundly mocked and derided again. Now, people are seeing thousands of homes being wiped out by fire, hurricanes and super tornado swarms and flooding, the focus has shifted away from sea level rise, which is a good thing in a way, since many more people are affected by these immediate disasters. Yet, all the while, silently and as you've shown us, not so slowly, the melting of ice continues, inexorably leading us to a world of total chaos. It does not bode well for life on Earth. 8 billion people are about 7 billion too many.
Climatologists have been pretty much spot on, just a tad optimistic if anything. It's happening faster than predicted. When I moved down to California in the 80s, the fires weren't even close to the terrible infernos every summer seems to bring now.
You are still being ridiculous anti-humanist and #MerchantOfDespair.
It's fine for life on earth. Life has survived worse here already.
It's a complete disaster for human civilization as it currently exists. We're not prepared in any sense to go back to the lifestyle our pre-holocyne ancestors endured, and most of us will die when we lose that pocket of protection that that unique era of environment provided.
@@kiltedcripple Most in the "Western" nations couldn't survive a day without the world wide web, nevermind "hunter-gatherer".
@Neil Peters there are not enough resources for 15 billion people, vegetarian or not.
1:32 "Just one small problem. Sell their houses to who, Ben? Fu*king Aquaman?"
There is this guy named Bob who you can contact. Think he is Chinese. Bastard is a happy square celebrity.
Exactly. That was a very good video by the way
I wonder if there are old personal belongings underneath it, just like those appearing from underneath Norway's Glaciers up high in the mountains.
This recent study has shown that the studies which preceded forecasting unprecedented catastrophe were in fact quite mild catastrophes compared with unprecedented catastrophes we now face.
LOL
I guess we must presume that the tipping point for Thwaites Glacier has already been passed, with the evidence indicating that collapse is now irreversible because the sea temperature continues to rise as oceans absorb ever more heat from the greenhouse effect.
So, faster sea level rise is inevitable & for places like the UK, coastal erosion could be severe with the question being - what can be done to prevent it? Even more severe, the UK East Coast which historically had its low lying fens/marshes drained for farming, now faces the sea (& coastal salinity encroachment) reclaiming what has become the UK's prime agricultural heartland of Lincolnshire/East Anglia.
Even more scary is that scientists can no longer confidently predict the pace of sea level rise, because previous estimates of stability of ice sheets such as Thwaites are proving to be too optimistic !
Don`t worry, an asteroid or volcanic activity will freeze the planet soon enough and all of you can go ice fishing.
Nice explanation of a topic which is both, interesting and shocking. This video helps everyone understand how all these developments are connected to each other, without having to be a glaciologist ;)
Your work is of great service!
Great post my friend. A lot of food for thought. Big events coming.
Thanks Gef
Not only is the water a couple of degrees above the freezing point of water (at the surface) but the melting point of ice is depressed by pressure at a bout a degree C per km depth of water. Thus at the deepest point of sea bottom (2km deep) below these glaciers, the melting point is suppressed about 2 degreesC. In other words, at that depth the water is about 4 degrees above the local melting point. Of course it is also salty while the ice is fresh water. (salt on roads??)
Probably one of your best climate awareness episodes. This depth of material helps people connect with why this is so important
Thank you . I appreciate your feedback.
Do you think we need any more awareness? Or unification on a course of action?
No mention of the Active Volcano that is heating up the Water that is melting the Ice
Also ..It is Communism and it is A Dictstorship trying to take away people's Freedoms or Charging everyone a Tax ..The Planet is Alive in it will heal wbatever we as People do over time ...Animal exstiction has been happening since the Planet was Created ...Only the Strong survive ..Onlything I worry about is a a War and Radiation ..Because that will kill and change everytbing ..Men wont beable to to have sperm and we wont beable to reproduce unless we do artificial ...These Fake Scientist the Crazyones who want Global control and Kill off Millions of us ..Because they wont need is with in the Next 20 years ..Everything will be ran by AI and Wont be a Need for you and Me ..Reason they need to lower the Population..Viruses and many other things will help them Achieve this ..Also if you think they can Build bases on the Moon and Mars and the reason other Planets are being Explored ..Many of the People I know and you know wont be going ..Once they get itallset up a Nuke (War) will bennifit them because they will be around and safe where many of us will parish in the Aftermath ...Reason there is a Partial Global power ..Nust we watch what they want us to and Erase books and History as they go ..They want us to see the world they do ..Only a Few Countrys are resisting the Global scale ..Once this happens though they can melt down the Nuke plants and Kill everyone off in America then start all over
@@elephantintheroom5678 CO2 and temperature related, you say?
Excellent graphics... And thanks so much for the high resolution
Cheers Richard
Thanks for your efforts and honesty brother from South Africa 🇿🇦 🙏
I'd been saying for a year that 2021 is the 2100 that Hansen warned us about in 1988. And that 2021 wasn't over yet.
Guess it's over now, and we are in 2022 and the news isn't any better. In fact, the acceleration is accelerating. All this talk about seeing the changes in 5 years will be surprisingly quick to arrive. The melting of the Ice is never a tranquil moment.
The West Antarctic Rift System (WARS) is one of the major active continental rifts on Earth. In 2017, geologists from Edinburgh University discovered 91 volcanoes located two kilometres below the icy surface, making it the largest volcanic region on Earth.
shhhh that has nothing to do with the climate hoax nothing to see here move on
‘Just have a think’ - even the name of this channel is brilliant in its subtlety! And what an ace presenter you are Dave. I’m surprised you haven’t been snapped up by the MSM. Their loss is our gain 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
Thanks Bob. I really appreciate your feedback :-)
Excellent explanation and breakdown. Thank you 😉
Glad it was helpful!
About a quarter of the worlds nuclear power plants are situated in coastal areas. It does make you think
Brilliant as always
Thank you! Cheers!
Thanks for excellent research and presentation
Great presentation!
Wow, we need to wake up! Cheers for the video mate 😎 👌
Yes we do. Cheers James
We all know that this will end in a disaster. But the momentum of the driving forces in all our countries seem too strong. No clue how so many adults in the oil, gas, car, mining, energy sector as well as all the politicians are able to ignore the facts. It actually doesn't help me to watch the glacier melting.
Very true statement about people in the fossil fuel energy sector. But you need to add all their tentacles in Big Ag, Big Pharma, Big Packaging as well as Big Finance.
I suspect they are like 98% of the people I know...not willing to read about, watch or engage in discussion about this topic....let alone act upon it. Consciously or subconsciously they refuse to acknowledge that the reality we are currently living in is being destroyed by them/us and that they/we must change course (lower our expectations) if we have any hope of avoiding very unpleasant changes being imposed on us by nature and the chain of events that will unleash the truly unpleasant aspects of the human tendency to put them/ourselves first.
@@richardlangley90 And when the shit hits the fan, they tell you that they did not know and are terribly sorry. As if this would help others then themselves.
@@richardlangley90 Not sure how we can prevent Thwaites Glacier from melting. How do you propose we do it?
@@taoist32 I highly doubt we will prevent this (Thwaites Glacier melting). Does that mean we should continue to ignore what our behaviour is doing to the environment and every living thing on the planet? I'm not clear what the point of your question is. My point is that with such a large percentage of the people I know ignoring what is happening all around them my expectation is that changes will be imposed on us that will be extremely unpleasant and likely terminal. This is not necessary if we believe our environmental scientists but it does mean some very significant changes in what we consider normal and OK in the way we live...changes that many will see as simply too much to even consider. Since we seem determined to wait until every naysayer out there is convinced that there is absolutely no doubt about what we are in for, the likelihood is that there will be nothing we can do at that point. If through some miracle enough people wake up very soon then the changes we need to make will be less drastic, but still unpleasant. Part of the challenge is really understanding what the changes are that we need right now vs what will be needed if we wait a year or five to do anything substantial.
Thank you for your work brother!
Thank you for your support :-)
Brilliant video. Very clear information. Well done.
Cheers Dave
We need to focus on mitigation. There are some things we cannot stop or easily reverse.
It's just like watching Don't Look Up.
Hard to understand where we go from here - I was at an East Coast town yesterday and there's significant construction and development going on that could easily be underwater in under 10 years. We just have to get CO2 out sooo much faster!
They are like the people of Noah (PBUH). They'll foolishly make fun of whoever builds himself an ark.
Let's say 1 billion tonnes a day for 5-10 years. Who pays?
Also Don't Look Down
Were you looking up this weekend? What did the sun do? What was different about Earth? The storms came as predicted by looking up at the sun.
You are being had. Keep being fearful of everything you hear. I bet when Al Gore was spouting his doomsday predictions you were believing it all. It didn’t happen did it? The planet has had 1000ppm co2 before and the plantlife loves it. They are counting on fearful people like you who believe everything you are told.
As bad as a Flat Earther if you ask me.
You keep on believing and live your life in constant fear while I get on with mine laughing at people who are weak.
Thank you for this thorough presentation.
great thanks so much for your rational treatment of the subject!
I don't know how people expected anything else. There's an active undersea volcano right under it.
Hey that volcanic eruption might buy us a couple more years.
A disaster for a disaster
And all of your projects might buy us a month or two. Keep up the great work Cody
@@davitdavid7165 hair of the dog, so to speak.
how?
@@morninboy ashes from the volcano clouds reflect some of the sunlight back into space before it hits the ground or at least the lower layers of the atmosphere, and this produces some temporary cooling.
you need a lot of volcanos to achieve a measurable effect.
Deeply appreciated this visualisation of the grounding line. Damn.
Eric Rignot's recently is waaaaaay better. In this one I see no naked mermaids at all and hear no Rock acoustic guitar music. There's "sufficient" and then there's "superb".
Keep up the good work.👍😎
Thank you for another great video. It sounds like the timeline is uncertain because of all the different factors involved, but there are so many symptoms pointing toward collapse it will probably happen a lot closer to the five year mark than the end of the century one.
I really don't know how to process this information. It's such a huge event that will effect every coastline in the world... I'll definitely check out your earlier video to see what you said about it.
Cheers Kevin. I think the 5 year mark is really only for the outer ice shelf. The whole glacier will probably take decades to let go completely (probably...)
@@JustHaveaThink So what sort of consequences would that outer ice shelf have? Is that what projects to have a 3 meter rise in sea level or is it the entire glacier?
@@robbie31580 Just the glacier. The ice shelf melting won’t affect sea levels that much.
Don't worry in 5 years this will be forgotten and the catastrophe will be even worse in 3 years or maybe by the end of the century. Like the circus guy was saying. Come and see the flying elephant, amazing miraculous, a day flies and a day it does not... The end of joke is that of course it does not fly today.
@@nastasedr thanks God someone who sees through this bullshit....
As always, I really appreciate what you do.
Cheers Glenn :-)
Top notch video, thank you for posting.
Cheers Anton.
In Australia in the last fortnight there was an article that insurance companies are starting to refuse to insure seaside properties.
They know what’s coming, like bookies during an election.
Link?
I often wonder how bad things have to get before our species starts to truly tackle this immense and extremely complex problem?
35 years.......AFTER extinction.
If it gets too bad, we won't be able to slow down the damage. We may already be at that point and have to just ride out the disaster
I think that's why Johnson was getting pissed up every day during Christmas. He just thinks that it's all too feckin late to reverse or stop this process. I tend to agree.
Excellent video, JHATh!
Thanks! :-)
Cheers for this independent information
Very unsettling indeed. Especially combined with the looming "blue ocean event" in the Arctic.
Yes the gigatons of methane under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is perhaps a bigger concern.
Russians are loving it... For some reasons... But they also know that is bad
@@everready2903 You mean East SIBERIAN Shelf.
@@Kiyoone Reasons being, Russia and Canada will become only regions in the world where you can reliably grow grain? By the end of the century the entire world will rely on Russia not only for energy, but also food.
@@sodalitia Do the northernmost regions of the northern hemisphere contain soil rich enough to grow crops at scale?
Another great video, but deeply disturbing Dave. Keep up the great work.
Outstanding educational video. Much appreciated
Many thanks :-)
Thank you for the intelligent insight!
Ice floats, and displaces it's own weight in water, then as it melts, it gets lighter and displaces less, but the melt water compensates, so the overall height of water stays the same. The difference in density between salt water and fresh only changes this by about 2%.
The ice shelf is not going to raise sea-level. When it goes, the glaciers... currently ON LAND will be freed to move rapidly into the ocean and THAT will raise sea-level.
@@lrvogt1257 correct. floating on water, no problem. hence there's no concern for the north pole. but Antarctica is a land mass holding ice. enough of that ice melts and the sea levels will noticeably increase. it already has.
@@danielesdale4452 right but while The Arctic Ocean isn’t a direct problem for sea level rise, Greenland is a huge problem currently losing nearly twice the ice mass per year as the Antarctic. The loss of reflective ice in the Arctic Ocean will cause the dark water and dirty ice to absorb more heat and melt more ice faster
Thank you again Dave for your wonderful research and humble presentation. You help us to keep informed of these developments that affect us all and especially the lives of our children , their children and beyond. I truly hope world leaders are seeing your work. The time to move the climate issue into the "URGENT" pile has already past.
Thanks @Trucker Slater. I appreciate your feedback :-)
Did he mention how much just this glacier will raise the ocean by?
@@coenraadloubser5768 0:35sec - 1 metre.
The climate change part is junk science. Co2 never warmed earth
@@1972martind28 I'm guessing you will have heard this many times by now: you are simply wrong with that assertion.
I am reminded of the scene in the 1st Star Wars movie where Luke says he is not afraid of the Dark Side and Yoda says "You will be!" We aren't afraid yet either, not really. But we will be.
To be clear, the "grounding line" of Thwaites in pictorial at 0:19 is 10.4% of the way back from the bottom of that pinkish outline and the scale is way off because instead of the widest part inland being the 2.0x the TEIS ice shelf+tongue+melange width shown there it's actually 6.7x as wide (800 km vs 120 km for the TEIS ice shelf+tongue+melange width). The distance back inland is scaled correctly. Also its thickness varies from 100 m at the ocean where the cliff bits break off to 500 m at the grounding line to ~3,500 m thick (just very approximately) at its centre part. It thickens super massively as it moves inland and the minuscule 0.13% of it that's the floating ice shelf is simply the outlet from the valley 120 km that Thwaites is trying to flow & push through. Thwaites is highly constrained in a deep inland bowl behind the ridge, pushing through the valley, and cannot "slide into the ocean" or "collapse into the ocean" as some ignorant idiots have babbled, and must steadily flow (just like thick toothpaste) and crumble away over time, maybe a couple hundred years, that sort of thing, and probably will. Anyway, the ocean is only ~500 m deep (it's a shelf) so the ice averaging 2,550 m can't slide up onto it and if it instantly collapsed onto it then it's just sit there melting away for more than century as a little island of ice next to Antarctica. Morons everywhere you look.
8:23 We need to get 'Auto Glass' down there ASAP.
Based on the fracture of the Larsen C ice shelf first being noticed in November 2010, its extent and width at that time and its rate of growth the few years following, I suggest the possibility that the fracture of the Larsen C ice shelf might well have been caused by the Indian Ocean tsunami 26 December 2004 following sea bed earthquake. "The tsunami also reached Antarctica, where tidal gauges at Japan's Showa Base recorded oscillations of up to a metre with disturbances lasting a couple of days".
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I see "the sea floor is estimated to have risen by several metres, displacing an estimated 30 of water". If I take the tsunami as radiating in a circle then the radius is 13,000 km at Larsen C ice shelf distance so the quantity of tsunami water per metre of impacted face is 30,000,000,000 / (26,000,000 * pi) = 367 m**3 (this assumes negligible settling of the water during travel). For 1 metre of SLR extending to 367m from the ice shelf face I compute 367 * 42,000 * 10,000 = 154,000,000,000 newton-metres of torque per metre of fracture run at the fracture point using a 42km width. If I assume 350m thick then the tensile pull at the bottom of the fracture from 1m SLR lifting at 42 km from the pivot point = 440,000,000 newtons per metre of fracture run. The tensile pull over 350m thick from 1m SLR lifting over 42 km = 1,260,000 newtons per metre of ice depth per metre of fracture run (i.e. per square metre) average throughout ice depth. However, (595-435)/595=27% so the lowest 50m of the ice shelf face is subjected to 27% of the torque force, so tensile pull over the lowest 50m of the ice shelf face = 2,380,000 newtons per metre of ice depth per metre of fracture run (i.e. per square metre). The tensile strength of ice varies from 0.7-3.1 MPa so the fracturing force exerted on the ice shelf at the fracture location from 1 metre of SLR would be anywhere between 0.8x and 3.4x that required to fracture it (if ice were infinitely brittle) so it is definitely of the order of magnitude to be very possible based on the 367 m**3 simultaneously per metre of impacted face.
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Of course, ice has some ductility & malleability (not perfectly brittle) and tides there are of order 1m to 1.7m, same as that tsunami or somewhat higher, so the ice shelf could not survive tides if it was perfectly brittle. Davis tide table indicates typically 14 hours for the tide to rise 1m to 1.7m but likely the far more rapid impact force of a tsunami SLR (over a few minutes I assume) would not give the ice shelf sufficient time to respond elastically throughout its length and it fractured along its weakest line on the lower face due to the torque exerted. This would open a fracture 7 mm wide at 42 km back from the face if the ice did not yield anywhere except at the fracture so, for example, if the ice bent 90% of the required amount to relieve stress throughout its length then it would open a fracture 0.7 mm wide. This would need structural analysis to figure it out properly.
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The line from the centre of the tsunami origin to the centre of the Larsen C ice shelf is at an angle close to perpendicular at Larsen C so SLR would have been applied across a large width of the face simultaneously. The only significant contraindication is that it appears that a straight line across the ocean from the centre of the tsunami origin to the centre of the Larsen C ice shelf might be interrupted by the western edge of Queen Maude Land, in which case there would be no direct wave front across all of the centre of the Larsen C ice shelf but only the portion of the original wave that spreads southwards. Update: Looks like a southern diversion of only 20 degrees of arc from Queen Maude Land coast, so not much, and that diversion looks to make the arriving ripple even more perpendicular at Larsen C.
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Extrapolating back in time from the fracture distance increase between 2010-11 and 2015-10 indicates a fracture date of 2002-05 which is 2.5 years before the tsunami so it doesn't support the December 2004 date strongly but given the uncertainty in that method it doesn't rule it out (perhaps there was some initial length of fracture before it started increasing).
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Grindupbaker,that's what I was going to say
Super! Thank You!
And I love his animation of the warm salt water current flowing the earth below the ice. And even the warm salt water off of the ice shelf is well below the freezing point of fresh water!
This is an important topic. Thank you for covering it JHAT! I understand that we could lose Thwaites in 5 years as research is reporting. Reports state that 10-11 feet of sea level rise is expected to result ultimately. Some reports state If the “Doomsday Glacier” collapses, global sea levels will rise more than 2 feet just from that. But how long ill it take to get to this level of SLR? Some studies seem to say this could happen fast while others say that would take decades more. This is a case of when, not if. Additionally in less than 5 years we will likely be at 1.5C of warming according to the WMO. Dramatic changes are right in front of us.
Itll be more than that. I'm banking on 2c.
NO, we will lose the ICE sheet, so the part of the Thwaites that is floating above water. The part of the glacier above land is, as far as scientist can tell will take much longer (somewhere in the next 100 years). Even so it is terrible news. And the long term effects, scary.
Shura Hana Your comment is total nonsense. There's high-quality information around the Internet from the actual scientists studying it for this topic. There 645 mm of globally-averaged sea level rise (SLR) from Thwaites Glacier plus another ~600 mm from Pine Island next to it. After its ice shelf collapses its speed will increase maybe 6x as fast (they don't know). It'll also increase its width so when it's 6x as fast and 240 km wide it'll lose 10 * 75 = 750 billion tonnes / year (0.21 metres / century of SLR for 300 years and then it's all gone, if there wasn't ice cliff failure. Anna Crawford just recently provided the results for ice cliff failure and it's 1.00 km / year retreat by crumbling at the maximum cliff height she thinks it could get, which is 424 metres above sea level, so that's 500 years to crumble all the way to its back and be gone. They'll need modeling to combine the toothpaste-style flow with the cliff crumbling (it's very complicated) but the sort of thing it can be is like 200 years for the 645 mm of globally-averaged SLR or perhaps a few decades less. It all depends hugely on how much carbon humans burn such as whether they keep burning carbon like it's going out of style, like you're all doing as I type this.
Real world data shows there has been no significant warming the past 6 years. As ice shelves push further out to sea they eventually break off. Winds push the currents and distribute the heat from the tropics and the solar activity controls the winds. About 20 years ago a large piece of an Antarctic ice shelf broke off. When researchers went to explore what the sea floor under the ice shelf was like they discovered warm water and an erupting underwater volcano but it still got blamed on human activity. In the 1600s AD glaciers, advancing farther than they had in thousands of years, were destroying villages and farmland in Europe. In 1970 a lecture I attended was about the past few decades of global cooling and was the interglacial period ending? What the paleoclimate records clearly show is climate is always changing and we are seeing nothing unprecedented. Talk to someone who lived during the hottest decade in U.S. history and they will tell you about what real heatwaves were like in the 1930s.
U.S. and Soviet Press Studies of a Colder Arctic (New York Times,1970) - The United States and the Soviet Union are mounting large‐scale investigations to determine why the Arctic climate is becoming more frigid, why parts of the Arctic sea ice have recently become ominously thicker and whether the extent of that ice cover contributes to the onset of ice ages.
The Cooling World (Newsweek Magazine, 1975) - Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects. They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve.
@@Klaatu2Too wow, troll. C02 levels rise every year (and will continue to do so for at least the next 2 decades). Ice sheets worlwide are at minimun size (the norther routh is finally open) . Albedo is also diminishing... And you talk about data from 1975¿?¿?¿?¿? You do know more than 90% of all scientist support climate change?)
Quicker, faster, rapid, accelerating…
Who knew change could happen so quickly?
Evidently anyone who bothered to comprehend the data freely available.
Excellent summary, as per usual.
Wait until a huge volcano erupts or an asteroid hits and freezes the planet.
Lot's of data thanks for the update. Heard south America having a hot summer too.
Very well summarised
Mr. Farrell, thank you for your video. I learned something, have got an idea, and would like to start a group to change ice science into engineering. Please suggest, and Thanks again!
I am NOT Matt Farrell. He runs a different channel. He is American. I am British (there's a clue in the accent). We are both bald and wear glasses, I'll grant you that, but seriously - can't you tell the difference?
@@JustHaveaThink Please accept my apologies. I have made a mistake. But moving the glacier collapse problem from science to engineering, is not a discussion forbidden to wannabe citizen scientists, and thought it would do well to ask for POVs or suggestions. If I have not too offended, may we say more?
Common sense says that since the Thwaites glacier is melting and breaking up as fast as it is, it's only sensible to believe that ALL of the Earth's Ice is melting and breaking up as fast as well.
So don't be surprised if we're in a state of abrupt sea level rise quite soon.
God be with you all.
Actually the sea ice extent in the Arctic was the highest in 18 years in 2021. 2 dozen ships had to be rescued in November with ice breakers. There are subglacial volcanoes now active near the Thwaites glacier. My guess a big contributor. Perhaps the gentleman presenting here is not aware of that.
Well done very interesting
Can’t wait!!
Yeah we're going to be in complete chaos from all directions by the end of this decade. Whatever you need to do now with your life, do it.
Well done diving into this area of active and practical research Dave... this was an excellent presentation. There was also a good one at COP26 of the same topic, not in the economics and business section WG3 area of the COP, the politically motivated zone, but the youth, indigenous, scientific and activist XR zone; you know it, it's the one where the real future lies. Thanks for an excellent unpicking of the subject
Cheers Brian. Much appreciated
Fantastic graphics!
So exciting!
It's amazing how we've accepted, loved, and tolerated wildly dishonest reckless abandon. It's also amazing how this isn't going to ever be fixed because modernity is based upon dishonesty, and exploitation. Thousands of years of progress perfecting dishonest exploitation. What else are we supposed to do? Our ability to collaborate has atrophied beyond belief
The real challenge is cutting through the disinformation and the well meaning but inaccurate scientific claims that pepper the proven data. Add in the vested interests and it's tough to gather enough trust to truly collaborate.
We're doomed. Our world is run by CEOs who are more than happy to kill us for a dollar. Even if we didn't have that a lot of people would crypto us to death. We're not meant to live and we should instead focus on killing off human kind as quickly as possible so another species can hopefully take over.
Very interesting - many thanks. At this rate, I might live long enough to see the things I've been warning about for decades actually happening! Rather mixed emotions on that though...
keep updating mate, very good job. those who have money please give some of it to this guy
Thanks, will do! :-)
Thank you 🧡👍
When they say 5 years, cut that to half. Its 2 or 3 years.
Scary--but realistic--thought.
It's gloom and doom, that expression goes usually to someone who exaggerates, not this time.
Clear and concise as usual. Perhaps more information on how the pinning point stabilises the ice. This shelf will fragment to the grounding line within 12 mths. in my opinion, then we get massive ongoing ice-cliff collapse.
It's a high point in the sea bed, jams the ice so pushes back against its flowing. Trivially simple. The blancmange doesn't push back at all, too wobbly, but is waaaaaay tastier.
Scary indeed!
Very scary, there only guessing 5 years I feel. I don’t think that can calculate the true value of time accurately dew to random rapid acceleration
It looks like it may take just a few short years for the ice shelf disappear as the grounding line has been receding quickly.
Science fuck yeah!
Also, I don't know if I should visit Venice before or after I've had my diving lessons.
If you go now you can see dolphins there. No more huge passenger boats there
@@rjung_ch I don't like those rapey creatures.
always interesting. I enjoy and appreciate the vocal presentation so much...... I have often thought I'd like you as spokesperson for my company one day.....
You are very kind :-)
what a great narrator!!!! Authoratative but mellow style.
Anyone who has grown up in a country that has winter ,has worked out doors ,relied on winter for part of their "work year" fully understands just how quick ice can disappear. While the science is complicated the basics are not. Ice disappears fast ,even when temps hover around the freezing point. Good video again thank you
Cheers Paul
This shows how climate change will affect us sooner rather than later. Rather than get depressed by this, let's all use it for motivation! Let's apply continuous and unrelenting pressure to our governments to ban fossil fuel use asap and take the serious action that they aren't currently taking!
I’ve got to stop watching CZcams late at night.?sometimes I’m really glad I live 660 feet above sea level. This is one of those times. Great video, fist time viewer and subscriber.
Thanks Peter. Welcome to the channel :-)
Can't wait!