India Today Conclave 2024: Arvind Subramanian & Shamika Ravi On India’s Resilience & Global Turmoil
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- čas přidán 14. 03. 2024
- Speaking at the 21st edition of the India Today Conclave 2024 in New Delhi, Arvind Subramanian said, "I can't understand the latest GDP numbers, they are mystifying, and don't add up. For example, the implied inflation numbers given by the government are between 1-1.5%, but the actual inflation is around 3-5%."
Speaking at the India Today Conclave, Shamika Ravi, member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, on Friday said that growth and economic activity at ground level has increased.
The India Today Conclave - India's premier thought forum - is entering its 21st year. Over the next two days, Conclave 2024 will bring together visionaries, leaders, and luminaries from across the globe under one roof to delve into the essence of 'Brand Bharat: An Assertive Nation in an Uncertain World'. Spanning over two decades, the conclave has established itself as a premier forum for dissecting the complexities of our times, stimulating intellectual debates, and seeding the ideas that shape our world.
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There’s a grapevine in some circles that Arvind Subramanian was fearing to face Sanjeev Sanyal & Shamika Ravi. Glad he gathered the courage to expose himself 😂
Inherently anti modi is dubramaniam
Quite unfair to him, His misgivings are genuine.
@@bmniacUnfair? You should behold how he routinely gets schooled by Krishnamurthy Subramanian on X. AS is a hypocrite who basically knows he's stretching matters and overstating his case just to make a particular point to align with his agenda, despite it not being backed by data. Typically, he'll write something pessimistic about the Indian economy but almost never responds when he's taken out by other economists like K Subramanian.
The only odd response or two he may come up with would be a rather short, mealy-mouthed remark, usually to someone sympathetic to his point of view but you'll practically never see him respond to technical criticisms of his opinions by fellow economists. At the end of the day, he's just a bitter, frustrated former CEA, nothing more. It'd be hard for almost anyone to have a meaningful conversation with Arvind Subramanian, it has to be said. The guy just ignores any information that challenges his views and only sticks to what he wants to say regardless. He does the same thing on other platforms too. Nonetheless, that Shamika Ravi owned him big time in this debate which, I concur, was way too short, ought to be obvious to any objective listener.
This should have been at least a 2-hour debate. It was fascinating! 👌
Subramanyan is speaking like so called economist Raghurajan
Confused!
Yeh b US wala hai. Soro's chamcha. 😂
Indian GDP is 2-3 TN USD as per Arvind Subramaninyam ??? And you call this joker from US to discuss economy
I was so taken aback I checked the date. This was 4 days ago. Right now it's supposed to be approx $3.7 trillion and should be $4 trillion by March 2025.
He stopped visit to Ashoka University after the bigot PBM was shunted out!
Good job. Keep hitting that prosperity for every ordinary Indian not just those already well greased!
Shamika nailed it in the end. You cannot keep the people at the bottom of the pyramid high and dry or wait for the fruits of the economic policy reach to them through natural course. Basic civic amenities provided by the govt help the citizens to focus on things like skill building, education, self improvement.
Shamika Ji is awesome in her analysis 🙏🙏
Arvind sir beating around the bush.
Not going into academic debate not going into political debate then why are you here other than US accent English.
He is a known modi gaiter who talks lies.infrint if shamika,he has to face the truth
The best thing about the debate is the new way in which new generation economist are measuring progress at a micro level rather than use some very crude way of doing macro level measurements based on academic modelling, created in some United States of America, universities which can be interpreted this way or that way depending on the mood of the economist on the day
Brilliant conversation! Would love to hear more from Shamaika ji
Very one sided program against the GOI and true colours of India Today 🇮🇳
Shamika is brilliant.👏
She is right that more demand for books, pen, pencil!! But that has a small profit margins!! Think big - companies like Google, Microsoft etc.,
Beautiful discussion and points shared by both experts!
There's a clear jitters in Aravind's presentation where he was representing US congress. But Shamika has responded perfectly even when the Kid Journalist tried to not letting Shamika speak
Nice discussion. I hope GOI pushes for labor intensive sectors like FMCG, Textiles, leather, plastic, consumer electronics etc.
Big fan of Shamika mam👃
Belt treatment to Arvind 😂
Fiery lioness this lady is ! 💥
This debate is fascinating, Shamika ji.. must for those, what is done by this government with economics lens
Hi Rahul:
The discussion was interesting. Let me begin my noting that I spent more than three decades at the IMF before retiring in 2005. I then joined Global Financial Integrity, a think tank in Washington DC where I am now the Chief Economist Emeritus.
I am confused by Shamika's arguments that satellite images of construction activity during the UPA and NDA governments is evidence of the latter's superior economic performance. That, in a nutshell, is her argument. However, it is seriously flawed for the following reasons.
First, the satellite is a dumb "instrument"--it can take pictures but it is up to human beings to interpret them correctly. The fact of the matter is that while economic growth tends to drive construction activity, the converse is not true, particularly if, as in India's case, it accounts for just around 8 percent of Gross Value Added. In other words, a dog wags its tail but the tail cannot wag the dog. To cite satellite pictures of greater construction activity as evidence of better economic performance is misleading and disingenuous.
Second, the greater construction boom of the NDA over the UPA period itself needs to be shorn of (1) population growth (2) rising inequality and (3) greater rural-urban migration which may be driving some of the private sector investment in construction. The government has not established the fact that overall construction has boomed in spite of these demographic and other factors.
I agree that economists need to be non-partisan in their analysis. You will note that my comments are strictly technical in nature.
Whatever may be causing that private construction, isn't it adding to the growth?
My credentials - I have been a layman for 30 years. I am great at being a layman. Since I am a great layman, I am asking this question to the great IMF economist.
@@rnarayan98 Recall the line of argument-satellite photos show that construction activity increased more under the present NDA government than the previous UPA. This was presented as evidence of better economic performance. That reasoning is plain wrong. While economic growth may (repeat may) increase construction activity, the latter cannot be an indicator of economic performance, particularly if the value added in GVA is only around 8 percent. I am not saying that construction is not adding to growth but that construction cannot be used as an indicator of economic growth. You cannot start with evidence of more construction and say “See, this is evidence of better economic performance.”
Moreover, there is the problem of comparing construction over different time periods which may be driven by shifting demographic and other factors which I point out.
By the way, I am not great. Just experienced.
Rahul Kanwal was not prepared for the responses and asking follow up questions. Shamika undoubtedly held the stage.
Hope seeds are sown will wait to reap
Felt like laughing when Subramaniam was talking. Another Raghuram Rajan. Shamika was brilliant...
AS couldn’t press on his narrative with Shamika Ravi’s hard truth
I hope next time for counter argument against govt policies (which is important) please bring in people who done have angst for being fired by Modi from their position of policy making.
What is important, whether the people are getting adequate food, employment, housing, medical service, legal facility, and safety. The picture is not bright from these points of views. What is missing is the public investments. Too much dependency on the private investment cannot pull up the economy. Foreign investment does not go to a country which does not look good. India looks bad with too many people who are poor looking. Vietnam does not look bad like India; that is the reason foreign investments are going to Vietnam.
BD
Whatever this Shamika Ravi woman is smoking, i soooo want to smoke it too. Then I can blissfully go around crowing “ Aall ijj well, aall ijj well”.!
Shamika you nailed it
Takes 10+ years to overcome hesitation by the
Indian investors to start putting more money into India??? Seriously?????
Arvind and Raghuram are very respected academics who don't understand India
Fake pundits who are anti modi
Well their ‘respect’ seems to in be a niche circle.
How good can they be if they do not understand their subject matter - India
Rahul Kanwal was just intersecting when Shamika was talking and allowing too much time to Arvind ( who by all means was parroting like Raghuram Rajan)
I really don't get, we brought PLI for AC & LED bulbs 4 years back, so GOI is saying, make AC in India, its ok if u import Refrigerator, oven, cooler, mixer, microwave, vacuum cleaner etc. We need PLI for Consumer Electronics as a whole
"At this Momunट .."😅😅😅
K listen buddy, you are good economists…. Even I am bit getting 20% increments which I was getting when I started my career back in 2004…. But but but… as your income increase your % increment go down because your base is bigger… a fresh graduate can get 20% rose as his salary is 3lk rs but after 10 years when his salary grows to 20lk he can not get 20% it might be 10% but still 10% in terms of amount will be 2 to 3 times of increment he got in early years
Same ways when your gdp was 1 trillion 10% FDI was $100 Bn now at 4 trillion economy even 5% FDI will be $200Bn
Also $100 Bn in2004 was 4lk cr today 200 Bn is 16lk cr
So even at half FDI %, in terms of amount it is 4 times
You must really get used to Single digit as economy matures.
% Increment will follow Inflation and domain growth.
What does Rahul Kanwal know about economics?
It is always easy when you know what is going to be asked !! Also it goes to show there are two ways to interpret the same set of numbers , One the way adopted by NSO and the other accepted world over ?
Ideal economy for a country is that it is self sufficient in every which way .......that is all ir needs to do .
Amazing points by Arvindji!
We should thank India Today, that for once their were no politicians on the debate with all their mindless rhetoric, the invitees were genuine intellectuals, not just theorizing about the state of Economics/Econometrics as it exists in India, but also trying to suggest practical solutions to seemingly intractable problems which we encounter as a nation. The MSME sector in India needs an excessive thrust in terms of policy making and economic incentives, for us to get anywhere close to surmounting the burden of joblessness.
Great debate, but I am still confused 😏
Mr. Swamy doesn't understand GDP ?? Why is he in the panel in the first place ?? Good he learnt something from Ms. Ravi. Glad Ms. Ravi gave him a micro view of the economy. US economy is in dire straits, I think Mr. Swamy should be spending all his energy in the US
Interesting discussion but too short . Both speakers were not given enough time to speak. i was very keen to understand FDI investments in absolute and percentage terms and in co relation to others. Further the issue of manufacturing discussions was relevant especially in terms of employment generated to semi skilled . While services have dominated the Indian economy and exports it appears especially in thee case of IT to be biased towards well educated and skilled . The reason for manufacturing remaining relatively tepid was not discussed though touched upon . Overall too little
We are already third largest in terms of ppp
No harm in turning inward of that works for a nation . That is better than being an outward facing nation with the largest indebtedness in human history - USA.
Who's here after reading AIM's tweet?
The Parliament-level spatial built-up area data could be misleading on many crucial counts and more particularly in political terms. And, whether this can be a proxy for development also challenging given that it could be misleading equally. However, dismissing this mythology as irrelevant is also not correct. If such spatial analysis can be undertaken with overlapping of socio economic data and the district level, for which, many credible variables would be available at the district level and su h analysis would be mush more meaningful!!
Upper middle class tea party. India today .😂
Lady is dope.. That uncle is more of depressed entity.. 😅😅
The lady destroyed Arvind Subramanian.
Not sure how someone with a sane mind can come to that conclusion.
@@arunsar7893 Even a person with zero economic knowledge can make that out
@@ppk1243 A person with basic economic understanding would see that no "destruction" of any sort happened. And if you think a person with zero economic knowledge would see Arvind Subramanian getting "destroyed" that speaks to the stupidity of that person (or ideological blindness, in your case).
The loudmouths born after 2014 will be harmful for india, missing AI train for past 10 years is an example
we understand you have zero knowledgee bhaktidiot@@ppk1243
I cannot believe what I am hearing. Equating built-up surface area with economic growth? Dr. Ravi, confounding at best. Nobel as well as world leading economists have studied and researched property construction and ownerships a long time ago. Sorry, but these studies reveal that property is a form of nonproductive economic activity.
Arvind Subramanian should be tipped against K Subramaniam for a realistic analysis
I think the government of the day has some very detailed down level mapping of various indicators and parameters of progress which are being used also for planning purpose. This is a new approach that they are using, and there is huge amount of data which they have gathered, which is being channelised to do economic activity monitoring. That is what Shamika was trying to show, and as usual Rahul would not let her show that the entire purpose of having such a conclave is defeated. If the editors do not allow the participant to put forward their point of you view, it might have taken Lakhs of rupees to fly economist from USA Who contributes precious little to such debates. Meanwhile, economists who are doing much more detailed and pathbreaking work in India itself are sidelined
Because it doesn’t fit the narrative of their masters.
19.05 min
16.45 min
Great lady knows her stuff
Why is this underqualified anchor promoted every time to ask questions from people of very high academic reputation? Please note that his questions are of a very ordinary level. Bring some young scholars from the same discipline.
I found Dr Shamika Ravi very unconvincing.
At the same time, I found Dr Arvind Subramanian very subdued. This was NOT a good debate/ discussion.
Why High unemployment Madam?
Because unskilled people
Start Namaj 5 Times A Day , Everyday!
You will Get Job
It doesn’t matter what side you listen to the fact remains that India is doing exceptionally better under modi than under previous corrupt parties.
One macro without prep and the other,a regular eco,waste exercise
Shamika is making excuses fir the non performance of Modi, the feku. More "efficient " FDI takes the cake. None of the western companies are looking to invest in India as a part of China +1. The only exception being Apple.
India's pro Russia stance has cost us a lot of inward investment.
Arvind rightly pointed out that the PLI scheme should have targeted low skilled mass manufacturing sector.
AS is an outstanding economist but economics as a discipline is changing and the change is needed. Shamika Ravi has made a good attempt to view and analyse things in a different way and that is most welcome. The need to look at the sectors and subsectors in different ways is unavoidable to understand the warp and woo of growth. As for data there are gaps and assumptions which are not clear and could be questioned. The so called residual factors are quite critical and are not directly measurable. as are the results of innovations. What we do not see often are things like an antiquated highly dilatory judicial system which is smug, irresponsible and unwilling to change. The state governments need to reform considerably especially in regulation and land transfer which breeds considerable corruption. Too long to list here.
There's no doubt that a helluva lot remains to be done. Nobody disputes this. Arvind Subramanian clearly loses credibility when he states that Bharat's GDP is $ 2.5t-$ 3t. Nope. Right now, it's about $ 4t. There's not one major international financial institution or credit rating agency which doesn't agree with this. If you want to argue or believe that AS is a better economist than all those working at the IMF, World Bank, Morgan Stanley etc, that is a choice for you to make.
AS has been schooled on X many a time by economists like K Subramanian (and others). Personally, I've never seen him respond directly to any of their technical points. When challenged, the guy appears to opt for silence. From what I've seen, he only normally responds briefly and non-technically, usually to handles that agree with what he writes.
Thr same hype when he was at the helm.
Shamika is THE economist on this stage. Excellent, just owned the shadow of Raghuram Rajan sitting there.
Government has moved away from China plus one policy. Arvind Subramanian and Rahul Kanwal have to update themselves at the policy goals of the Government.
So relieved that Arvind Subramaniam's shadow is far away from Bharat. India Today is stuck on Rajans and Arvinds.
Shamika is calls herself an economist but doesn't understand the difference between correlation and causation.
Better than AS. India has been pulled down for 50 years by Khangress and these kind of pessimistic bureaucrats.
I’m
I understand what Dr. S is saying but I don’t agree with him at all. He is being very pessimistic under the garb of Data & charts. Very USA agenda clearly. GOI is doing the best given our democracy, population, geography and history.🇮🇳
Rahul is unfair to her cutting her when ever she come with good point
India has missed the manufacturing bus by miles ,
First principle of being a good propagandist is to have smooth exposition. Ms Shamika Ravi has mastered that really well.
OMG he is so naive really....was holding him in higher esteem..thanks to his talk he exposed himself...Be as confused buddy...best wishes
Build up area map is genius, its a perfect growth indicator
Arvind as Rajan is academic 🤔
Arvind,UPA ka chela
Running out of time.....really..... make one hour show
Arvind Subramanian's statements and observations are vague.
Next Fm shamika
I have great respect for Rahul Kanwal but he is out of depth here.
Ya ya sub chaga si. Jor se bolo aalll isssz welll
Who is this new joker
yes you
Just an old clown exposing himself ..bas using big words, eloquent English and going round and round without any substance.
Shame on Arvind and Rahul
During Manmohan Singh tenure our GDP went up by 2.83 times while Modi could double it. Hence Congress was better for our economy than BJP
AS talking shit...
Rahul: Indian economy grew at approx 7.5% during UPA'a ten years vs 6.5% during Modi govt ten years. Corruption has increased in Modi's ten years EB's and PM care fund and 16 lakh crore loans waived for the businesses under Modi regime. You asked Amit Shah very soft questions on EB's which is now showing how much corruption was involved in that. High unemployment of the educated and high inflation of consumer goods are other failures of this government. You guys hardly discuss these issues as was being done during UPA rule. Everyday 2 G scam etc. but nothing came out of it. How many debates you channel have done re corruption in EB's, PM Care fund & loan waivers and other Godi Media. The way Godi Media destroyed UPA, Godi Media have no guts to ask questions to Modi Govt. Well Modi has not held even one press conference in last ten years?? But Godi Media has no guts to question him on various things like, ED, CBI, IT, EC and the way it is destroying India's image?? CC: Mr. Puri??
U r a tout of Modi mouth piece u r not darting editor to condemn Modi deeds,the Indian screwed modi
Why at constituency level? Simple. Govt is represented by MPs from these constituencies. What a stupid observation by ASS.
Arvind Subramaniam is trying hard to use the US template on the Indian economy - that was unsuccesful under Raghu ram rajan . Arvind is only teying to be loyal to his American masters - and tried to respond with logic or numbers but witg sweeping generalities.
Even after 20 years, Modi government woudl be blaming UPA for their low growth,
Arvind Subramanian may be funded by CCP
secondly I remember this man’s suggestion during Covid pandemic which govt did not listened at all and that was very good decision of govt.
Rahul Kanwal is blossoming into a very good anchor compared to his senior colleague Rajdeep Sardesai who has a lot of biases in his pockets.
Arvind is saying everything is right but things are wrong. He should be the advisor for Rahul Gandhi. End of the day, you will not get anything out of their conversation.
Modi ne ARUN PURI KO KITNA PAISA DIA HAI ELECTORAL BOND KA NEWS NHI DIKHANE KE LIYE ISKA NHI JAACH HONA CHAHIYE
Lol😊
India today is a critique of current government compared to other English media.
@@arunsrinivasiyengar2759 electoral bond pe sare news channel cover kiye par aajtak ko saap sungh gya.
This guy arvind is very pessimistic.... The post war period does not apply to India. India is more like the usa in emergence. The usa relied on internal consumption and not exports.
Shamika is brilliant
Plz stop this nonsense. This debate is heavily one sided and crazy.
All darbari economist who have been shown the door by Modi Govt. are crying grapes are sour...knowing fully well that the reality is far better than anytime in 70 yrs of Congress dominant rule...
Aravind subramaniam is so biased!
On PLI, he is so fleeting; on services vs manufacturing, he is biased towards GCCs and then says it’s for 2%, on investments , he is sceptical but doesn’t go deeper … 🤦🏻
People like sharmila will repent when reality hits us Indians at face . Covering reality and window dressing may not impact her put the citizens of Indua hard if we still believe true lies
Godi media.