META-OBSERVATION ABOUT US HERE: 96.6% of the community likes this video - the usual number is 99%. Plus quite a few unsubs. That's still a ridiculously positive response but let's discuss the tiny 2-3% drop. This is for 2 reasons: my emphasis that Trump perhaps remains favourite. And secondly, that despite being one of the greatest leaders of the 21C, Zelensky is not terribly personally likeable. Now I will make a harsh and blunt point - sorry! Virtually nobody in this community knows enough about Zelensky to know whether they like him. The negative emotion in response to my remark on Zelensky is part of our shared culture of polarization (my side is right) and consumerism (I pay with my time to hear things I like). The only available position for almost everyone in our community on Zelensky's likability and personal qualities beyond his heroic war leadership is: I am not sure. Ps. I am considering a main channel video on why Zelensky stayed. I would discuss his character more, and why his character stood up so well in these critical weeks. Vlad's main channel czcams.com/users/VladVexlervideos Support Vlad's work on Patreon! www.patreon.com/vladvexler Support Vlad via PayPal www.paypal.com/paypalme/vladvexler?country.x=GB&locale.x=en_GB
@@VladVexlerChat does Zelenskyy like animals…..if so then I will give him the benefit of the doubt. I think someone has already mentioned this but Zelenskyy may be like Churchill……not a pleasant or likeable person but the right person for the situation.
@@kevley26 Yes I am inviting the response "what is Vlad going on about when he says Zelensky is a great leader but he doesn't like him?" . I am de inviting the response: stop saying that!
I respect anyone's opinion on the likablity of Zelenskyy. I just want to know what's not to like. Dude's seems to me to be brave, funny, empathetic and sincere. But I'm very curious about something that I may be missing. Looking forward to the video if you decide to make one :)
And you've listened to Kamala? Or better yet, analyzed her actual policies? WTF is wrong with people? This is real simple. Look at California. Look at Minnesota. What's been happening there the last several years?
I think we are closer to 60:40 in terms of her chances, and given her much better chances with minorities and women, and the momentum she creates, the pendulum will swing in her favor in the coming months.
Trump is also clearly panicking, which means he becomess less coherent and more unhinged. That may lead to a downfall spiral for him (except of course for the ultra MAGA crowd that will like him just more, but there aren't anywhere near enough them to win the election).
I know enough about Zelensky to say that I like him. Anyone who says, 'I need ammunition, not a ride!' when threatened by Russian invaders has the right set of instincts. And as an ex-military guy myself, I trust people by their instincts more often than not. To me, he is very likeable. Perhaps I am atypical. But he has my highest respect.
Ukrainian here: The analogy here would be to like Trump because of how he treated Kim Jong Un (without fear or diplomatic flattery). Same story with Zelensky - it was impossible for his character to run away because he is concerned about his public image more than anything in the world. Does it make him likable? Not for many Ukrainians who remember him brushing off US warnings about Russia invading (because of fears for his public image as peacemaker), talking disrespectfully with Ukrainian soldiers (because his public image was threatened by one of them), placing his friends with zero competence in charge of everything (because they cajoled him). If you would have seen the mess and destruction his wariness caused and the number of heroic deeds people had to do to stop Russians in spite of lack of proper preparations you might have changed your opinion about him.
I feel the same way; it takes enormous courage and selflessness to act in such a manner. Moreover, if he had escaped at the beginning of the war, Ukraine would have already lost. I think Vlad was referring to Zelensky's controversial internal politics.
@@danilabezmenov3489 I remember his 'brushing off' those US warnings, but he wasn't exactly alone in that if I recall correctly. Also, at least in public there was zero indication that the US themselves were taking it seriously and acting to forestall Putin's invasion at all.
@@CraigTalbertyeah, but you have to realize that this is a long game. Trump lost in part because he did a lot that made life harder for teenagers, some of whom never supported him in the first place, and they voted him out in 2020. The demographics show this.
I think it is possible to like things a person does but not necessarily like the person. I don't know Zelensky and probably never will. However, he does appear to have been able to get support from other countries to fight against Russian attempts to take over first Ukraine and then who knows what next, and as an Australian who cares about democracy and self-determination, I like that. What I admire most is the strength, courage and ingenuity of the Ukrainians in defending their country.
I don't agree with you on this one, when you push people against the wall, THEN their true character is revealed. So I like Zelenski, he showed his true colours.
I think you can respect someone as a war time leader and still not like them as an individual / politician. I can recognise the role Churchill played in WW2 but I would personally not have voted Tory if I was British in the 1945. A sign Ukraine is a healthier society imo too when people can rally around a leader during a crisis without idolising him.
Dear Sir, This is why I now believe Kamala will beat Trump: meme from Facebook - "OMG, Walz went there on Vance: "I can't wait to debate the guy...that is if he is willing to get off the couch and show up!" 🤣🤣🤣
Trump sounds tired and resorting to the same old tired tropes “liberal extremists” and in a very tired and lacklustre way. The ‘cat women’ cat calling Vance doesn’t appear to be endearing himself. How this lands with the US voters - Idk. But 70/30 seems way out to me.
People aren't buying what he's selling anymore. He's promising everything will be so great, on day 1 he's going to fix everything, blah, blah, blah, and it's like, that's what you said there last time. People gave you a chance, and it looked nothing like that. That only worked once.
Does 55/45 in Trump’s favor seem more realistic? The popular vote doesn’t always win the presidency. National polls are not good predictors. If Kamala is going to win, it’s going to take offline activism. How badly do you want a Kamala victory? Are you willing to go outside, walking precincts and knocking on doors? Would you phone bank? Drive two hours to attend a rally? Or how about this? Would you cut your food budget in half for three months and donate the money to the Harris/Walz campaign? I don’t think most Kamala supporters are willing to lift a finger unless it’s to argue online with trolls and bots. I hope I am wrong.
I'm not being partisan here when I say that the Harris/Walz ticket is fire, so much so that the Trump/Vance ticket not only looks pathetic in comparison but downright like the biggest losers ever to be nominated by a major US party. Rest assured, you'll see Harris and Walz in the WH come January while Trump will join Benedict Arnold, Father Coughlin, Joseph McCarthy, Roy Cohn, and Tokyo Rose in the dustbin of history.
You're not in Zelensky's shoes Vlad . He was an unlikely candidate prior to the last presidential election . However Ukrainian's gave him an opportunity to serve as President . He confronted this unwanted war with stoic strength , knowing he is No. 1 on Putins hit list . A lesser man would have fled . Yes Zelensky gave jobs to close allies and friends , which was very much frowned upon by his opponents . I suspect he chose acquaintances over strangers in key government jobs to protect his back from the very real pro Russian threat from within . Ukraine is a young democracy in need of good trustworthy leadership determined to squash intrenched corruption and Russian agression .
Zelensky has my utter respect for not running 🏃♀️ away from the Russian aggression and constantly traveling 🧳 around the world 🌎, asking for help as a beggar!
@@sabishili4614 So what should he have done Einstein ? The weapons arrived and Putin didn't get what he wanted - now with more weapons arriving in Ukraine Putin's army is feeling the strain - Kersk incursion is just the start of 🇷🇺 eventual defeat .
Can someone fill me in and I'm not looking to argue, just learn; what is not to like about Zelenskyy? I find him incredibly likable and assumed that most pro Ukraine people felt either neutral or fond of him. And why would Biden specifically dislike him?
I will discuss it more - perhaps in a main channel video about why Ze stayed in Feb 2022. I hope to share it soon. By the way, do interrogate your surprise a bit - why should Ze be likeable just because he proved himself a great war leader? He may or he may not be!
I'm watching the situation in Ukraine for the last 10 years, I think. Learned Ukrainian while doing it, at least enough to follow the discussion, not to participate in it, not that it was hard for me, being relatively close language to my native. The way Zelensky handles public opinion in Ukraine, builds political and governmental structures, handles military and economic priorities in the warring state, etc. is between "not good" and sometimes "horrifying". Not that I think there is anyone better in Ukraine right now; Ukraine is certainly having problems in leadership department. I'm pretty sure that Biden, having both more access to what really happens in decision-making process in Ukraine and more experience with building and governing structure that actually make things done could be very frustrated with Zelensky. Again, not that I see anyone better.
@@VladVexlerChat Oh, I don't know whether he's a good war leader or not. He seems to be doing the best he can. I thought we were talking about liking him as in his personality or even just his persona.
1. Your statement of Trump is 70-30% to win is likely wrong. Polls favour Harris and betting markets say 52% in Trumps favour. 2. Your statement that Biden didnt like Zelenskyy is not founded in any facts. And that its not possible for people in the community to like Zelenskyy is also wrong and strangely arrogant. It absolutely is possible to like Zelenskyy. I like him.
Polls have proven remarkably weak at predicting the outcome of elections. They keep adjusting, but it's becoming more and more apparent that they're more serving the news cycle (and creating it) rather than providing enough information to even make educated guesses. At least as far as the US elections are concerned. That said, I agree the statement is likely wrong, because I don't see how he would come up with quantifiable numbers that way. I tend to agree with him, though. We shall see what the future brings, like he says: If this momentum can be maintained and translated into actual votes in places that matter, good.
1. You're new to the channel - Vlad uses numbers (which are different pretty much everytime) as a psychological clue only. Don't take them literally. 2. That statement is not a factual claim, rather interpretive claim. Stay with Vlad some more and you'll get a good idea of the difference between the two. And welcome to the club, btw!
Ask yourself how many people do you know who have answered a political poll? I haven’t for over 40 years. Back before caller ID on phones that were mounted on your wall. I don’t believe polls because stuff often happens at the last minute that will completely swing an election.
I have no opinion about Zelensky as a person. I’d be interested to hear why you don’t like him though. I would think that a Great war leader may be a bit too hard nosed to be likeable, but I’ve not seem anything about Zelensky to make me dislike him. I suspect Winston Churchill was a bit of a dick..
Thank you, Vlad! It is so good to see you more often, not only because of what you have to say, but also because it must mean that you are doing better (at least a bit). Lots of love from Germany. 🌻
Harris has pulled ahead, according to Nat Silver of 538 (a highly respected polling organization). Her choice of Tim Walz should help her in widening this lead.
Personally I’ve never met President Zelenskyy so I can’t like him or dislike him 😂 And yes , exceptional circumstances give rise to exceptional people . The historical fact is that he did not run and remained against the odds .
As an American I would really like to check my blind spots regarding Zelenskyy. This is the first time I've ever heard a [hopefully] generally pro-Ukrainian voice regarding him as unlikeable. I've listened to him in interviews, I've heard his speeches; he comes off as very likable as far as I can tell. I think anyone in politics is going to accumulate detractors who are upset with policy decisions or who have disagreements with how he's handled some situation (in this case it's a war so of course those disagreements will be heated). But do Ukrainians generally not like him? And who outside of Ukraine (who doesn't actually want a Russian victory) finds him unlikable, and where can I read more about this?
You're putting the cart before the horse. When you have appendicitis, you need a good surgeon to remove the appendix before it bursts and kills you. And as long as they're a good surgeon skilled at removing appedixes, and they're going to operate on you, and get you well, do you care if he yells at the nurses, and makes the junior doctors tremble with fear? No, not really. So, why must you like Zelensky? That is the reality of the situation we face. In times of war, cometh the hour, cometh the man, but cometh the time of peace, there is no guarantee he will be the right man for that job. You should examine the career of Winston Churchill. Personality wise, he was largely disliked. FDR despised him. DeGaulle and he disliked each other intensely, probably because they were both too much alike. Churchill was arguably a lousy politician in peace time. He was responsible for some of the most costly policy mistakes like the Sterling Gold Standard Crisis, which arguably encouraged the global demand for gold to skyrocket, and to encourage competition for it between states that led to World War II. But, during World War II, his weaknesses were largely restrained. Often not content to outline strategy, he often strayed into being a backseat driver to his generals on the ground. But he was lucky to have the foresight to have taken Hitler as a serious threat, and to have mostly lucky generals. And he understood the role of morale on the home front, and could become the consummate war leader. But in peace time? His weaknesses too often outweighed his strengths. That's why he was in the political wilderness before World War II, and once people cottoned on that Churchil's analysis of Hitler was correct, the appeasers were pushed aside. Winston Churchill became prime minister because his strengths were appropriate. But he lost the first general election in 1945 by a landslide. He misread the sentiments of the electorate, and offered nothing other than had won the war for them. In contrast, the Labour Party had a vision for a better future, which the country wanted and needed. Same with Margaret Thatcher. A lot of people respected her, but hated her and her policies, even though the full range of some of her failures were not apparent at the time. So, one does not need to like someone, to admire their abilities. The essence of good government is to put the right person in the right job at the right time, and manage them appropriately. You don't have to like them, but you must respect them to get the best work out of them.
70-30 is a wild guess. You probably haven't paid much attention to what is going on. The com man has maxed out. Democrats are adding. And the young voter's enthusiasm is not pollable
Yip, totally agree. And even with Biden I was never sure that Trump could win. easily. I just don't see the capacity of him to reach out to other voters besides MAGA
@@birhan2006 I mean, he made sit bolt up right in fear of the possibility. In reality, there is no 70-30, something either happens or it does not. Keeping the potential that Trump might win as a ‘live option’ is necessarily motivational.
“Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country. Russia is a powerful country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine. So basically that's wrong." U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris
I am Ukrainian and I can't stand Zelensky. My feelings towards him are not so much connected with the war, but rather with the monstrous populism with which he came to power and how he used this power in the following years. Under his leadership, we uncontrollably invested billions in roads and dubious infrastructure projects. We had stupid state programs like planting a billion trees (I'm not kidding). We destroyed tens of thousands of Soviet mines to show off our peace initiatives to the UN. We completely ignored state defense programs, including missile programs such as Neptune and Grom. And this is not to mention the carelessness with which he and his appointees treated any task they took on. But despite all of the above, I can't help but appreciate what he's doing now and how he's grown into a real statesman over the years. You can feel whatever way you like about Zelensky, but he represents a nation that's fighting for its existence and paying a huge price for it.
Interesting insights. And very interesting criticisms… how many Western European politicians would get slammed for spending on infrastructure, regreening, and demilitarisation? Maybe it turned out, thanks to Putin, that they weren't the right choices at that time, but compared to a history of corruption and neglect they seem kind of pardonable.
Interesting. Here in Australia, most of us see Ukrainians as proud resilient heroes, Zelenskiy included, hence the supply of Australian weapons and drones. Edit. I suppose it helps that putin is hated.
How is building roads, developing Infrastructure & planting Trees stupid? Trees soak CO2, provide a wood resource, soak up Rain, arrest Desertification/aridisation & erosion, help prevent flooding/provide shade & wildlife habitat. Rewilding is a smart move, creating a Forestry Industry is a smart move, Wood is a far better construction material for environment than just using Concrete & Steel. Destroying dangerous mines is is a good thing in a world at peace/that wants Peace. Ukraine made mistake to try & appease the RuZZ Beast though.
In American politics today, pro-democracy candidates must significantly outperform authoritarian-friendly candidates. This is just the reality of the Electoral College, federalism and our type of representative system.
There's not just nuclear risk. There's immediate nuclear risk, and then there's long-term nuclear risk. I still think that long-term nuclear risk should be seen as the overriding issue, and I still think Russia must be defeated so decisively that no one sees its nuclear blackmail as having helped.
I don’t understand your opinion of Zelensky. Do yiu dislike his continual asking for weapons? Do you really think he is turning authoritarian. From what I have seen, he has been a masterful leader in a time of war.
Hi Vlad, This is off-topic, but how can we address the hate towards immigrants and especially Muslims concerning the current riots in the UK? People are angry.
Hello Vlad, could you please provide an assessment of your views-both positive and negative-on Ukrainian leadership, especially in light of the Russian invasion? Additionally, could you share your thoughts on President Zelensky? I’ve always assumed he wasn’t widely liked before the full invasion, but I would appreciate learning more from someone who is more formally informed on the matter.
Vlad, did u hear Anthony Scaramucci say that he thinks Trump may resign from the Presidential race if he has a few more bad weeks? He thinks Trump is really not interested in winning or losing and only wants to avoid jail. If Trump is losing in the polls for a few weeks and then given a deal that avoids jail, he'd take it and go back to Florida and his golf. Kinda rings true, he definitely doesnt want to lose to Harris. Time will tell.
I'm certain he will do anything to save face and be able to claim he's still so amazing and everyone else is so wrong and corrupt. But I pray no one ever offers him a deal less than prison time for all he has done.
It’s not even remotely an accurate reading. Mooch is someone who thought Kamala fucked up massively by not addressing a bitcoin conference, to shore up the powerful Crypto Bro demographic 🙄
I would be slow here, esp. as the Mooch is passionate about defeating Trump. But here is a surprising opinion: the mooch is one of the most psychologically insightful commentators on the election, despite his own flaws!
Hi! I’ve been lurking since I saw you on John Campbell’s channel during the pandemic. Grateful for the love you engender and the insights that you offer. Proud Minnesotan! Your analysis of Harris’ chances are sobering, and I believe you have a keen view of the situation. I also think that Americans will come through with the Harris-Walz ticket come November. Peace to you and the beautiful community!
Think about what I am doing not just what I am saying. I am saying it because my Audience leans toward wishful thinking on this - so it’s my responsibility to say it
@@VladVexlerChat I don’t get it - if you are saying that you are exaggerating for effect - you will fall into the doctor prescribing placebos trap - no one can trust you as they don’t know if you are attempting a Machiavellian manipulation on them.
Polling needs another couple weeks to catch up to all of the craziness of the past few weeks, plus of course the VP nomination just today, plus we have the convention coming up which will scramble things again. I've been observing polls for a while. I'd say at this point we have good evidence that Harris is better than Biden was when he dropped out. We don't yet have good evidence that she's better in polling than Biden was before the debate (at that point, Biden was about even with Trump). She's probably about the same as Biden was then. She is nowhere close to where Biden was in 2020. We definitely don't have good evidence that she is beating Trump in key states. It's currently close in several key states. My best guess is that she'll continue to improve a bit in the coming weeks. Polling hasn't even caught up to her being the presumptive nominee... many good pollsters haven't posted a poll since then. Even if she does take a clear advantage in polling, it's worth noting that pollsters have... significantly underestimated Trump's performance in the electoral college twice now. A "moderate" level of error. They know that and many of them have no doubt attempted to fix this. We can only guess how much (and in what direction) they'll be off this time. Personally, I think it's a complete toss-up, and I think we'll need to see a pretty big shift in polling to say it's anything other than a toss-up. This won't happen within the next few weeks, but it could happen on the scale of months. If an election were held today, I'm pretty confident Trump would win... but it's immaterial.
I don't agree with his statement, but for the sake of Devil's Advocate here: I think you can easily make the argument that, based on the structure of my (American) government and election system, as well as historical voting trends (young people, far left, etc do not vote. They just don't.) that Trump has advantages in the actual vote that don't appear in things like social media. I think you can also make an argument that demographics favor Trump and the Republicans (hispanics being the largest minority, and shifting further right due to Evangelical beliefs, as well as white voters in general), or that factors like Trump's cult of personality outweigh other things that should matter more. I think you can also make an argument that many voters, at least in America, are really really stupid and uninformed. They have no clue how the world works, they have no interest in how the world works, they have no desire in learning more, they want to live in their bubble and have someone tell them what they want to hear. That also benefits Trump. Though this argument is probably more me screaming at the clouds than a logical expression.
I think the bookies have it at 60/40 Trump. Nate Silver is at 50/50 roughly. My interpretation of the polls in this moment of moment is that she needs to be a little further ahead in the key states to win. Interpreting polls also means being able to judge what value to give all polls in your estimation. There is a risk of over estimating polls epistemically. I am at 70/30 for Trump. But that is course is just a psychological clue. I am not offering that as anything more than a modest and informed intuition.
Polls tell you who is polling, most Americans show who they support only at the vote. Maybe thats culturally different depending on the democracy. Our independets dont do polls but they do vote against whoever pisses them off. @@VladVexlerChat
@@VladVexlerChat your interpretation is most important as above @runawayshay6409 though i would rephrase her argument to emphasize a more "conservative" and even "common-emotionality/sense" that a nationwide poll requires Harris to be ahead by 5-10% points due to the swing-states required to capture the Electoral College vs the popular vote. Trump needs to be ahead in only 6 states which is where he is now. i think that trump wants to be given credit for everything he lies about without looking to see what heis really responsible for ----- he is tough to talk with / debate.
I cannot say if I would like Zelensky if I met him but he is a brave, patriotic man who is willing to fight for his country. That it what they need at the moment.
would be interested in your take on the terrible far right protests on in the UK, considering you live here and are an immigrant. Any insight into why it's going on? It looks to me like both sides are talking past each other as usual. Any wisdom in how to respond as a regular person? Honestly I'm seeing a panic in the response of those around me, sometimes understandably, but sometimes not to the point of being counter-productive.
Curtis Yarvin (Mencius Moldbug) is the central philosopher behind the neoreactionary ideas that have influenced Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, and J.D. Vance. His criticism of democracy and his proposals for alternative forms of governance have had a significant impact on discussions about the future of politics and technology in Silicon Valley.
@@VladVexlerChat UPDATE: Ignore comment below. I missed your pinned comment. I think I get it between you and some others. Thanks for your opinion. ORIGINAL: "I would like to see a little content on your opinion as well. My knowledge of Ukraine and Zelensky is pretty limited but I too thought he was generally well liked. Your statement was news to me. Maybe I missed a video or three."
@@VladVexlerChat I feel similarly to you about Zelenskyy. It's a bit like my very Socialist grandparents who loathed Churchill politically in the 1930s, but recognised his accurate assessment of Hitler. They were happy to support him during WW2, but along with millions of others booted him out when it was over. I'm a bit sentimental so must admit I warmed more to Zelenskyy the other day when I saw him and his wife being genuinely kind and playful with some very young children.
He was universally unliked in Ukraine before the war. He isn't very good at picking good people, Ukraine didn't improve much when he came to power. He's a populist who didn't deliver. But now we have war, so everything has changed. The minute the war is over, he will be voted out.
I follow special elections like its got season 1.... i just don't understand where that 70/30 for trump is coming from. I just don't..... all special elections have seen democrats overperforming.
Highly thought provoking video Vlad. Do appreciate your distinction between what you’re “doing” with the audience rather than what you’re “saying” with the 70-30 number. Certainly put the fear in my stomach when I have been so pleased with the Harris / Walz momentum. Noble sacrifice to take a personal reputation hit of your objective prediction for the sake of keeping people politically engaged 🫡
I think they have a strong element of vacuity in them and are only predictively interesting during a certain historical moment. We are half way out of that moment now, so his model will be working less well than say in the 1990s.
@@kernel2006 Well, they say he got 9 out of the past 10 elections right, and he himself he got 10 out of 10 right. The only thing that got me puzzled is that by going by the keys, Biden still should have beat Trump easily and the polls were starting to heavily veer off into the opposite direction.
Until we're more familiar with Tim Walz and his views on strategy regarding Ukraine, I will hold my opinion back. Like Zelenskyy, it's difficult to know where these positions land. Tim Walz is very much a person who looks at the bigger picture, works to solve problems affecting people who are not in the positions of power. I'll wait. On balance, there are possibilities for a change in the attitudes towards Ukraine. I can agree the focus should be on security, European and international.
I mean, this is one of those topics which are interesting but which you can’t really say much about. She hasn’t really formulated her own take on Ukraine yet.
You do not like Zelenskij? Why would that be, Vladimir? And I am asking this out of real interest. He was not such a good politician in his first years.. but I see a person who really has been growing with the situation...
Walz has been a surprise to me. But surely as a European I don't know enough about the candidates for the US-VO to have a decent oppinion on this matter, I guess.
Which country in Europe? There are some interesting facts about Walz. He's one of the most progressive possible picks in terms of climate. He's very pro-education, pro-labor and pro-anti-trust like Biden. He's also Midwestern. For decades the conventional wisdom was that Democrats ALWAYS need a Southerner on the ticket to win. (Old baggage. Remember my country did have a North-South Civil War over slavery once.) Since Obama (Illinois) and Biden (Pennsylvania) won, it looks more like it's the GOP that depends on a Southern candidate while a Democratic ticket needs a Midwesterner.
Vlad, I don’t think you are reading the US electorate correctly with your 70-30 reference in favor of Trump. I suggest taking another read on the race in 30 days, after Labor Day.
Even against a past his prime Joe Biden, Donald Trump was nowhere near a 70% favorite. I really think the higher ups in the Democratic party who influenced Joe Bidens decision to step down never imagined Harris would take off like she did. They had been planning to choose a new front runner until they realized you can't stopping this type of momentum. Based on her prior interviews as VP, I myself thought she would flop when put in that position. She ain't flopping. Anything can still happen, but as of now she's picking up momentum while Donald Trumps support seems to be maxed out.
I find it strange that people have a personal dislike for Mister Zelensky. Like the overwhelming majority, I do not know him personally, and have only been able to judge his role as head of state in this most violent wartime. That is the amost sole criteria I am willing to judge him on, in the citcumstances. Putin and Trump have provided manifest examples of their character outside of wartime.
You actually have been able to judge his role as a spokesman for his country in the international public sphere where he is good. Unfortunately, there is more to being a head of state in the wartime than speaking with foreign leaders. Zelensky made and makes a slew of obvious political, economic and internal public opinion handling mistakes that cost his people dearly (consequences are fast and dire in wartime). Not that there is somebody better suited for this role in Ukraine right now. Still, again, don't mistake Churchill-like behavior before a camera with Churchill's handing of war routine.
Could you elaborate more on what you mean by "most emotionally intelligent people I know, who deeply support Ukraine, and like the region and know the region well, do not like Zelensky. I do not like Zelensky."? I do not claim to know interpersonal details about the man, nor do I have skin in the game as to his likeability, but isn't that just appeal to authority in support of your own feelings? Statements like these really rub me the wrong way. "Every intelligent person I know, who deeply supports Ukraine, does not like Putin." Even this version, someone who I personally feel is "not liked", rubs me the wrong way. I don't know how to put it any better, I'm not a trained or practiced philosopher or debater, but something in my bones tells me that isn't the most appropriate way to explain your perspective or point. Whether I agree or disagree with it. Much love sir, I did enjoy the video
I concur. It elides logic for more sophisticated version of "Trust me bro". Representing the opposing view with funny voices and caricatured strawmen doesn't change that.
Vlad--A couple of key points here. 1) Harris enters her term with hopes of winning a second term. Just as Biden was able to walk away from Afghanistan without it being a major factor four years later, Harris gets the same option on Ukraine. 2) Harris comes from Jamaican and India direct ancestry, went to middle and high school in Quebec province and college at Howard University. As such, there are fewer emotional ties to traditional post WW2 European world views. I am not making any predictions here, but would not be surprised if she seeks to avoid a major continuation of financial commitment to the Ukraine conflict. Remember, despite his huffing and puffing, and drawing lines in the sand, that was also Obama's position.
While I find the quality of the main channel really good, I must say the chat channel triggers me more and more negatively. I don't know if your increasing quick reactions are compatible with your more thoughtful side, which is less personally biased.
Totally agree with your assessment of how to frame the support of Ukraine. The morality aspect worked for a while. The geopolitical advantageous positioning is a more marketable talking point, here in the US.
Trump has enthusiastic supporters. Are they more numerous than his detractors??? We’ll see. Trumps been out of office, and becomes more palatable to passers-by than an incumbent. IMO
I'm much more exposed to the fawning adoration for Zelensky on many platforms and I see far less of from those who don't like him so I'm rather ignorant of those dissenting opinions toward him. And I get the sense that overwhelming positive perception of him internationally is somehow incomplete. So, why would anyone not like him, what are those arguments?
Hi Vlad, interesting to hear your comments about Zelensky’s personality - which I was a little surprised to hear (but only a tiny bit), though I must confess I haven’t really seen enough of that aspect of him to form any assessment myself - other than comments have heard from Ukrainian commentators about for example his poor relationship with General Zalugeny before he was forced to step aside. Can you please enlighten me/us, obviously without wanting to hear it sound like a kind of character assassination? I hear he’s one of Ukraine’s relatively rich elite if that is part of the issue, or is it more about his approach to messaging on how to get what Ukraine really needs without putting people’s backs up? Appreciate your thought on this. [Edit: just read your pinned comment after had said this. To clarify, I don’t disagree with your assessment - in fact I’m agreeing when you say we and I don’t really know enough to judge - so look forward to hearing your insight on this ❤️]
It's important to note that no-one will really know how effective Harris will be until/unless it is known who would be her Secretary of State. She would be making decisions based on a potential Sec of State's input.
What a great video. First of all, I find it absolutely mad that "Ukraine's arguments for Western support are mostly moralistic" while they've should've became increasingly pragmatic. IMO, talking points should look something like this: 1. While Russia has a frontline with Ukraine in the Donbas, NATO does not have a frontline with Russia in the Baltics. 2. While Russia is under sanctions it has less levers and resourses to throw around to destabilise Western democratic institutions. I would rather bet on Ukrainian Army vs Russian Army than on Western corruption & incompetence vs Russian dirty money & subversion. 3. While Russia is not going to crumble in the next couple of weeks, it is not invincible either. It doesn't have a limitless manpower or an endless amount of Soviet armored vehicles hidden somewhere in Siberia, and Putin cannot use Stalin's military and industrial mobilization methods, because a) it's not 1941 and we live in a different time with different people; b) that would be the end of him. 4. For now it is impossible to engage in rational conversation with Kremlin because Kremlin itself right now doesn't have a rational view of the West (and Western involvement with Ukraine). They're basically fighting windmills. 5. There aren't that many people on this planet today who are actually capable of pushing the red button. People like Curtis LeMay could've pushed the button. Putin is definitely not Curtis LeMay, and neither his generals or his camarilla (they didn't fleece all of that budget money just to see it burning away in a nuclear fire). 6. Abandoning Ukraine right now would be the greatest geopolitical blunder since the Miracle of the House of Brandenburg during the Seven Years' War. But for some reason Ukraine engages in rhetoric about "freedom", maybe because they have distorted view of the West themselves. Second, I'm glad someone is acknowledged that Zelensky is not likeable. He's stubborn, petulant, banal and vulgar. As a person he bears much closer resemblance to Trump than people in the West are realizing (it's really hard to blame them though, they don't know the language and they don't have even a passing knowledge of Ukrainian culture and politics for the past 20-25 years, although maybe it's actually a good thing). In my opinion, people of Ukraine will pass a test of political maturity only if they give him the boot in the election despite his heroics (just like Churchill got it in 1945). Third, it's refreshing to see that you hadn't got caught in Kamala's "surge"; I think she has most of Hillary's vulnerabilities without many advantages over her, but with the main difference being that people in the US are much more wary of Trump than they were in 2016. And finally, I would love to see a video about democratic incapacity in relation to foreign policy, because from my highly superficial and rather uneducated point of view, barging in without a strategic approach is the modus operandi of the US diplomacy since, like, ever; it's just blunder after blunder with little actual successes, no matter what party's in charge, and I've never quite understood why.
The democracy/autocracy is even MORE relevant today than 1-2 years ago as the actors of this "axis of evil" are increasingly confrontational and their actions have progressed towards the kinetic.
Zelensky's character finding the moment that brought it out reminds me of my lefty ideas about hierarchy: it's only valid circumstantially. E.g., a surgeon should be in charge during an appendectomy, but a businessman doesn't get to be in charge of my society (i.e., excess productive capacity or electoral office) just because he's rich and knows how to make a good investment. That's a tough point to make in the US right now. It's too unintuitive.
@@ScottJohnston-hy2jt True, but I'm not just talking about Trump. This applies to Romney or Musk or any number of powerful people. What I'm saying is anti-capitalist because I disagree with handing excess productive capacity to the capitalists, a la Adam Smith. I believe in democratic collective use of that capacity instead. That's why what I'm saying is lefty. That said, I'm also against the way authority is traditionally granted in the West. I think authority is a very dangerous tool that should only be granted sparingly and according to necessity before being snatched back. That's not the way our assorted republics and monarchies behave and I think this is a source of a lot of violence and instability.
You hit that hail square on its head. Just because you know how to make money doesn't mean you know how to run a country. I keep thinking of that line in Series 1 of Succession which said America was designed to be a factory to turn people's suffering into gold. And I feel right now, that I don't want to live in a factory. I want to live in a home, within a community. Probably naive, idealistic, and unrealistic, but that's what my gut says.
Vlad can you do a video as to why people might dislike Zelensky, it seems that a number of people have issues but for me i just hope he stays in power and sails the boat through this taught times after that not too interested what he does.
The weekend polls show major shift toward Harris/Walz in the swing state, including my own (Nevada). Harris is strong rule of law and that is in Ukraine’s favor.
Thanks Vlad. helpful and thoughtful as always. In particular, one of the national/global security reasons for the US (and Europe) to support Ukraine is the strategic reality that the Kremlin gang would be even more dangerous if they dominated Ukraine or a very large part of it. It is right to support Ukraine defending itself, but it is also protecting our own security. Although Ukrainians are very strongly resisting Moscow, the Kremlin would not hesitate to use extreme methods in order to exert control where they could. Moscow has abducted civilians including children and we have seen how their army treats Ukrainians in the temporarily occupied territories.
I love you Vlad and I love your messages. But If I may, your videos would benefit greatly from a sort of bullet points on a post it note about what you want to tell us. I hope your health is ... Manageable. Lots of love
Vlad, as a outsider also looking in US politics, it is time to unite that country. It can't really happen until Trump who has been divided it, is past history. It is high time.
You once criticised the beautiful community for often saying that things are 'obviously true / false' as opposed to explaining why they are true. I feel saying that 'emotionally intelligent people' / 'people who know the region' don't like Zelensky somewhat falls into that trap.
Something is "obviously true/false" thus it doesn't need explanation why something is true. "People with more knowledge of the situation think..." is exactly that: a rational explanation why something is good/bad/true/false. You may don't like that explanation - "what do they know, people with more knowledge!!" - and it's certainly an argument, but you can't equal complete lack of explanation with explanation, even if you don't think it's a good explanation.
@@VladVexlerChat I agree, but it's a departure from your usual style to effectively appeal to authority without additional discussion. A sort of 'well if you know about these things, you'd agree', in the same way that something being 'obviously' true, implies your interlocutor is simply uninformed. Methinks you are teasing us.
@@grahortarg9933 "People with knowledge of the region" is just "obviously true" one degree removed - i.e. it would be obvious if you had more knowledge. "People with emotional intelligence" is taking the piss. Both talk down to the listener without explanation in a way that Vlad ordinarily avoids.
@@sstvost9 appeal to authority is not a fallacy when the authority is relevant. "you have this illness because a number of physicians agree that you have it" is not equal to "you have illness because it's obviously true".
META-OBSERVATION ABOUT US HERE: 96.6% of the community likes this video - the usual number is 99%. Plus quite a few unsubs. That's still a ridiculously positive response but let's discuss the tiny 2-3% drop. This is for 2 reasons: my emphasis that Trump perhaps remains favourite. And secondly, that despite being one of the greatest leaders of the 21C, Zelensky is not terribly personally likeable. Now I will make a harsh and blunt point - sorry! Virtually nobody in this community knows enough about Zelensky to know whether they like him. The negative emotion in response to my remark on Zelensky is part of our shared culture of polarization (my side is right) and consumerism (I pay with my time to hear things I like). The only available position for almost everyone in our community on Zelensky's likability and personal qualities beyond his heroic war leadership is: I am not sure. Ps. I am considering a main channel video on why Zelensky stayed. I would discuss his character more, and why his character stood up so well in these critical weeks.
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Thank you for not giving in to the politics of tribalism and maintaining your nuanced viewpoint!
@@VladVexlerChat does Zelenskyy like animals…..if so then I will give him the benefit of the doubt. I think someone has already mentioned this but Zelenskyy may be like Churchill……not a pleasant or likeable person but the right person for the situation.
@@kevley26 Yes I am inviting the response "what is Vlad going on about when he says Zelensky is a great leader but he doesn't like him?" . I am de inviting the response: stop saying that!
I respect anyone's opinion on the likablity of Zelenskyy. I just want to know what's not to like. Dude's seems to me to be brave, funny, empathetic and sincere. But I'm very curious about something that I may be missing. Looking forward to the video if you decide to make one :)
@@Syne7h Same. I have no idea what he's like interpersonally. But does anyone else here? Does Vlad? Unless he's met him, I don't see how.
Trumps been saying stuff so wild that even my conservative farmer family is weirded out by it.
And you've listened to Kamala? Or better yet, analyzed her actual policies? WTF is wrong with people? This is real simple. Look at California. Look at Minnesota. What's been happening there the last several years?
Partly, perhaps, because he may not actually be all that conservative.
@@Katoshi_Takagumi I am convinced he wouldn't be able to identify a Conservative if he bit him in the ass.
Put of curiosity, what were the thing Trump said that made them weirded out. What was their thresholds?
He's been hanging out too much with his friend Hannibal Lecter
Man vlad, you are really active lately. Good to see you doing so well.
Doing my best thank you so much!
I think we are closer to 60:40 in terms of her chances, and given her much better chances with minorities and women, and the momentum she creates, the pendulum will swing in her favor in the coming months.
Trump is also clearly panicking, which means he becomess less coherent and more unhinged. That may lead to a downfall spiral for him (except of course for the ultra MAGA crowd that will like him just more, but there aren't anywhere near enough them to win the election).
For a former comedian to become a real leader is amazing to me, especially when I think of our politicians here in the UK 🇬🇧
Wonder if Ricky Gervais might be available to guide the UK through its next full-scale military conflict? 😂
You mean who didn't stop being comedians after winning power? And in the midst of crises, doubled down on their folly?
I know enough about Zelensky to say that I like him. Anyone who says, 'I need ammunition, not a ride!' when threatened by Russian invaders has the right set of instincts. And as an ex-military guy myself, I trust people by their instincts more often than not. To me, he is very likeable. Perhaps I am atypical. But he has my highest respect.
I was always a civilian, yet I think the same.
Respect is also more important than liking somebody, although neither precludes the other.
Ukrainian here:
The analogy here would be to like Trump because of how he treated Kim Jong Un (without fear or diplomatic flattery). Same story with Zelensky - it was impossible for his character to run away because he is concerned about his public image more than anything in the world. Does it make him likable? Not for many Ukrainians who remember him brushing off US warnings about Russia invading (because of fears for his public image as peacemaker), talking disrespectfully with Ukrainian soldiers (because his public image was threatened by one of them), placing his friends with zero competence in charge of everything (because they cajoled him).
If you would have seen the mess and destruction his wariness caused and the number of heroic deeds people had to do to stop Russians in spite of lack of proper preparations you might have changed your opinion about him.
I feel the same way; it takes enormous courage and selflessness to act in such a manner. Moreover, if he had escaped at the beginning of the war, Ukraine would have already lost. I think Vlad was referring to Zelensky's controversial internal politics.
@@danilabezmenov3489 I remember his 'brushing off' those US warnings, but he wasn't exactly alone in that if I recall correctly. Also, at least in public there was zero indication that the US themselves were taking it seriously and acting to forestall Putin's invasion at all.
Walz knows how to talk to high school students so a good pick.
Maybe 5% of high school students will be eligible to vote in the US, and maybe 30% of them will.
So did Dennis Hastert. 😂
I'd say he knows how to speak to people in general
@@CraigTalbertyeah, but you have to realize that this is a long game. Trump lost in part because he did a lot that made life harder for teenagers, some of whom never supported him in the first place, and they voted him out in 2020. The demographics show this.
@@vro1899 What? How did Trump make life hard for teens prior to covid? And how do you explain his increasing popularity with 18-24 year olds?
I think it is possible to like things a person does but not necessarily like the person. I don't know Zelensky and probably never will. However, he does appear to have been able to get support from other countries to fight against Russian attempts to take over first Ukraine and then who knows what next, and as an Australian who cares about democracy and self-determination, I like that. What I admire most is the strength, courage and ingenuity of the Ukrainians in defending their country.
I don't agree with you on this one, when you push people against the wall, THEN their true character is revealed. So I like Zelenski, he showed his true colours.
I think you can respect someone as a war time leader and still not like them as an individual / politician. I can recognise the role Churchill played in WW2 but I would personally not have voted Tory if I was British in the 1945.
A sign Ukraine is a healthier society imo too when people can rally around a leader during a crisis without idolising him.
Dear Sir, This is why I now believe Kamala will beat Trump: meme from Facebook - "OMG, Walz went there on Vance:
"I can't wait to debate the guy...that is if he is willing to get off the couch and show up!" 🤣🤣🤣
Bro, Trump is a sinking ship.
Can't believe Vlad was still saying that Trump is the favorite.
Trump sounds tired and resorting to the same old tired tropes “liberal extremists” and in a very tired and lacklustre way. The ‘cat women’ cat calling Vance doesn’t appear to be endearing himself. How this lands with the US voters - Idk. But 70/30 seems way out to me.
People aren't buying what he's selling anymore. He's promising everything will be so great, on day 1 he's going to fix everything, blah, blah, blah, and it's like, that's what you said there last time. People gave you a chance, and it looked nothing like that. That only worked once.
Does 55/45 in Trump’s favor seem more realistic?
The popular vote doesn’t always win the presidency. National polls are not good predictors. If Kamala is going to win, it’s going to take offline activism. How badly do you want a Kamala victory? Are you willing to go outside, walking precincts and knocking on doors? Would you phone bank? Drive two hours to attend a rally?
Or how about this? Would you cut your food budget in half for three months and donate the money to the Harris/Walz campaign?
I don’t think most Kamala supporters are willing to lift a finger unless it’s to argue online with trolls and bots. I hope I am wrong.
❤
I'm not being partisan here when I say that the Harris/Walz ticket is fire, so much so that the Trump/Vance ticket not only looks pathetic in comparison but downright like the biggest losers ever to be nominated by a major US party. Rest assured, you'll see Harris and Walz in the WH come January while Trump will join Benedict Arnold, Father Coughlin, Joseph McCarthy, Roy Cohn, and Tokyo Rose in the dustbin of history.
❤
Completely agree.
i hope so. it's so hard to tell what the undecided group of the voter base is thinking at any given time when you're far away from a swing state
Who’s Tokyo Rose? Is she related to Gypsy Rose perchance?
You're not in Zelensky's shoes Vlad . He was an unlikely candidate prior to the last presidential election . However Ukrainian's gave him an opportunity to serve as President . He confronted this unwanted war with stoic strength , knowing he is No. 1 on Putins hit list . A lesser man would have fled . Yes Zelensky gave jobs to close allies and friends , which was very much frowned upon by his opponents . I suspect he chose acquaintances over strangers in key government jobs to protect his back from the very real pro Russian threat from within . Ukraine is a young democracy in need of good trustworthy leadership determined to squash intrenched corruption and Russian agression .
Spot on.
Zelensky has my
utter respect for not running 🏃♀️ away from the Russian aggression and constantly traveling 🧳 around the world 🌎, asking for help as a beggar!
@@sabishili4614 So what should he have done Einstein ? The weapons arrived and Putin didn't get what he wanted - now with more weapons arriving in Ukraine Putin's army is feeling the strain - Kersk incursion is just the start of 🇷🇺 eventual defeat .
@@sabishili4614 You should start running - we're coming for you 🇺🇦🫡
Trumps is not a 70% chance winner, LOL.
He has around 45% chances, maybe even less.
Can someone fill me in and I'm not looking to argue, just learn; what is not to like about Zelenskyy? I find him incredibly likable and assumed that most pro Ukraine people felt either neutral or fond of him. And why would Biden specifically dislike him?
Yeah, this made no sense whatsoever to me either...
I will discuss it more - perhaps in a main channel video about why Ze stayed in Feb 2022. I hope to share it soon. By the way, do interrogate your surprise a bit - why should Ze be likeable just because he proved himself a great war leader? He may or he may not be!
Yeah, kind of what kind of criteria are we talking about here?
I'm watching the situation in Ukraine for the last 10 years, I think. Learned Ukrainian while doing it, at least enough to follow the discussion, not to participate in it, not that it was hard for me, being relatively close language to my native. The way Zelensky handles public opinion in Ukraine, builds political and governmental structures, handles military and economic priorities in the warring state, etc. is between "not good" and sometimes "horrifying". Not that I think there is anyone better in Ukraine right now; Ukraine is certainly having problems in leadership department. I'm pretty sure that Biden, having both more access to what really happens in decision-making process in Ukraine and more experience with building and governing structure that actually make things done could be very frustrated with Zelensky. Again, not that I see anyone better.
@@VladVexlerChat Oh, I don't know whether he's a good war leader or not. He seems to be doing the best he can. I thought we were talking about liking him as in his personality or even just his persona.
1. Your statement of Trump is 70-30% to win is likely wrong. Polls favour Harris and betting markets say 52% in Trumps favour.
2. Your statement that Biden didnt like Zelenskyy is not founded in any facts. And that its not possible for people in the community to like Zelenskyy is also wrong and strangely arrogant. It absolutely is possible to like Zelenskyy. I like him.
Polls have proven remarkably weak at predicting the outcome of elections. They keep adjusting, but it's becoming more and more apparent that they're more serving the news cycle (and creating it) rather than providing enough information to even make educated guesses. At least as far as the US elections are concerned.
That said, I agree the statement is likely wrong, because I don't see how he would come up with quantifiable numbers that way. I tend to agree with him, though. We shall see what the future brings, like he says: If this momentum can be maintained and translated into actual votes in places that matter, good.
1. You're new to the channel - Vlad uses numbers (which are different pretty much everytime) as a psychological clue only. Don't take them literally.
2. That statement is not a factual claim, rather interpretive claim. Stay with Vlad some more and you'll get a good idea of the difference between the two. And welcome to the club, btw!
It is not possible to like Zelenskyy personally if you can’t understand him speaking in his native language which for 99% of the audience is true
you actually believe polls? Think about it
Ask yourself how many people do you know who have answered a political poll? I haven’t for over 40 years. Back before caller ID on phones that were mounted on your wall. I don’t believe polls because stuff often happens at the last minute that will completely swing an election.
I have no opinion about Zelensky as a person. I’d be interested to hear why you don’t like him though. I would think that a Great war leader may be a bit too hard nosed to be likeable, but I’ve not seem anything about Zelensky to make me dislike him. I suspect Winston Churchill was a bit of a dick..
Thank you, Vlad! It is so good to see you more often, not only because of what you have to say, but also because it must mean that you are doing better (at least a bit).
Lots of love from Germany. 🌻
Love and gratitude !
I believe she will do good for Ukraine and I believe she won't let Ukraine down
Harris has pulled ahead, according to Nat Silver of 538 (a highly respected polling organization). Her choice of Tim Walz should help her in widening this lead.
Personally I’ve never met President Zelenskyy so I can’t like him or dislike him 😂 And yes , exceptional circumstances give rise to exceptional people . The historical fact is that he did not run and remained against the odds .
As an American I would really like to check my blind spots regarding Zelenskyy. This is the first time I've ever heard a [hopefully] generally pro-Ukrainian voice regarding him as unlikeable. I've listened to him in interviews, I've heard his speeches; he comes off as very likable as far as I can tell. I think anyone in politics is going to accumulate detractors who are upset with policy decisions or who have disagreements with how he's handled some situation (in this case it's a war so of course those disagreements will be heated). But do Ukrainians generally not like him? And who outside of Ukraine (who doesn't actually want a Russian victory) finds him unlikable, and where can I read more about this?
You're putting the cart before the horse. When you have appendicitis, you need a good surgeon to remove the appendix before it bursts and kills you. And as long as they're a good surgeon skilled at removing appedixes, and they're going to operate on you, and get you well, do you care if he yells at the nurses, and makes the junior doctors tremble with fear? No, not really. So, why must you like Zelensky? That is the reality of the situation we face. In times of war, cometh the hour, cometh the man, but cometh the time of peace, there is no guarantee he will be the right man for that job. You should examine the career of Winston Churchill. Personality wise, he was largely disliked. FDR despised him. DeGaulle and he disliked each other intensely, probably because they were both too much alike. Churchill was arguably a lousy politician in peace time. He was responsible for some of the most costly policy mistakes like the Sterling Gold Standard Crisis, which arguably encouraged the global demand for gold to skyrocket, and to encourage competition for it between states that led to World War II. But, during World War II, his weaknesses were largely restrained. Often not content to outline strategy, he often strayed into being a backseat driver to his generals on the ground. But he was lucky to have the foresight to have taken Hitler as a serious threat, and to have mostly lucky generals. And he understood the role of morale on the home front, and could become the consummate war leader. But in peace time? His weaknesses too often outweighed his strengths. That's why he was in the political wilderness before World War II, and once people cottoned on that Churchil's analysis of Hitler was correct, the appeasers were pushed aside. Winston Churchill became prime minister because his strengths were appropriate. But he lost the first general election in 1945 by a landslide. He misread the sentiments of the electorate, and offered nothing other than had won the war for them. In contrast, the Labour Party had a vision for a better future, which the country wanted and needed. Same with Margaret Thatcher. A lot of people respected her, but hated her and her policies, even though the full range of some of her failures were not apparent at the time.
So, one does not need to like someone, to admire their abilities. The essence of good government is to put the right person in the right job at the right time, and manage them appropriately. You don't have to like them, but you must respect them to get the best work out of them.
70-30 is a wild guess. You probably haven't paid much attention to what is going on. The com man has maxed out. Democrats are adding. And the young voter's enthusiasm is not pollable
Yip, totally agree. And even with Biden I was never sure that Trump could win. easily. I just don't see the capacity of him to reach out to other voters besides MAGA
@@AbudMunichenhe hasn't even been trying lately. Just hitting the caustic juice again and again.
It’s not a wild guess, he’s exaggerating the worse to avoid complacency.
@@ellisfmorton4086 Do you mean he underestimates his audience or is he wrong
@@birhan2006 I mean, he made sit bolt up right in fear of the possibility.
In reality, there is no 70-30, something either happens or it does not.
Keeping the potential that Trump might win as a ‘live option’ is necessarily motivational.
Every country gets the leadership it deserves. So, if Trump wins it will speak volumes about the culture of the American people
“Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country. Russia is a powerful country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine. So basically that's wrong." U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris
Please don't tell me that's a real quote.
Even with that wording the maga guys don't understand it
@@beatonthedonis It is.
I am Ukrainian and I can't stand Zelensky. My feelings towards him are not so much connected with the war, but rather with the monstrous populism with which he came to power and how he used this power in the following years. Under his leadership, we uncontrollably invested billions in roads and dubious infrastructure projects. We had stupid state programs like planting a billion trees (I'm not kidding). We destroyed tens of thousands of Soviet mines to show off our peace initiatives to the UN. We completely ignored state defense programs, including missile programs such as Neptune and Grom. And this is not to mention the carelessness with which he and his appointees treated any task they took on. But despite all of the above, I can't help but appreciate what he's doing now and how he's grown into a real statesman over the years. You can feel whatever way you like about Zelensky, but he represents a nation that's fighting for its existence and paying a huge price for it.
Interesting insights. And very interesting criticisms… how many Western European politicians would get slammed for spending on infrastructure, regreening, and demilitarisation? Maybe it turned out, thanks to Putin, that they weren't the right choices at that time, but compared to a history of corruption and neglect they seem kind of pardonable.
@edwardkennedy6443 Thank you for this comment! I couldn't agree more
Interesting. Here in Australia, most of us see Ukrainians as proud resilient heroes, Zelenskiy included, hence the supply of Australian weapons and drones.
Edit. I suppose it helps that putin is hated.
How is building roads, developing Infrastructure & planting Trees stupid?
Trees soak CO2, provide a wood resource, soak up Rain, arrest Desertification/aridisation & erosion, help prevent flooding/provide shade & wildlife habitat. Rewilding is a smart move, creating a Forestry Industry is a smart move, Wood is a far better construction material for environment than just using Concrete & Steel.
Destroying dangerous mines is is a good thing in a world at peace/that wants Peace. Ukraine made mistake to try & appease the RuZZ Beast though.
Tree planting and peace initiatives? Sounds absolutely terrible -_-
In American politics today, pro-democracy candidates must significantly outperform authoritarian-friendly candidates. This is just the reality of the Electoral College, federalism and our type of representative system.
Vlad I am very surprised, indeed rather shocked, to hear you don't like Zelensky.
There's not just nuclear risk. There's immediate nuclear risk, and then there's long-term nuclear risk. I still think that long-term nuclear risk should be seen as the overriding issue, and I still think Russia must be defeated so decisively that no one sees its nuclear blackmail as having helped.
TRUE. Blabla about what ever, but this is reality. If Russia helps Iran to have nuclear weapons, we have a completely different situation
I don’t understand your opinion of Zelensky. Do yiu dislike his continual asking for weapons? Do you really think he is turning authoritarian. From what I have seen, he has been a masterful leader in a time of war.
Hi Vlad,
This is off-topic, but how can we address the hate towards immigrants and especially Muslims concerning the current riots in the UK? People are angry.
I MAY DO A UK SPECIFIC CHAT SOON, GIVEN CURRENT EVENTS!!
Please do, Vlad.
@@VladVexlerChatThank you. We in the US need some pointers, too.
Hello Vlad, could you please provide an assessment of your views-both positive and negative-on Ukrainian leadership, especially in light of the Russian invasion? Additionally, could you share your thoughts on President Zelensky? I’ve always assumed he wasn’t widely liked before the full invasion, but I would appreciate learning more from someone who is more formally informed on the matter.
Vlad, did u hear Anthony Scaramucci say that he thinks Trump may resign from the Presidential race if he has a few more bad weeks?
He thinks Trump is really not interested in winning or losing and only wants to avoid jail. If Trump is losing in the polls for a few weeks and then given a deal that avoids jail, he'd take it and go back to Florida and his golf. Kinda rings true, he definitely doesnt want to lose to Harris. Time will tell.
I'm certain he will do anything to save face and be able to claim he's still so amazing and everyone else is so wrong and corrupt. But I pray no one ever offers him a deal less than prison time for all he has done.
It’s not even remotely an accurate reading. Mooch is someone who thought Kamala fucked up massively by not addressing a bitcoin conference, to shore up the powerful Crypto Bro demographic 🙄
I would be slow here, esp. as the Mooch is passionate about defeating Trump. But here is a surprising opinion: the mooch is one of the most psychologically insightful commentators on the election, despite his own flaws!
@@VladVexlerChat I agree with that. And I wish he’d shut up about bitcoin!
@@VladVexlerChat- the Mooch?
Veeeeery nice comment section. Thank you, beautiful community!
I believe she will carry on what president Biden has done for Ukraine and keep always for Ukraine
Hi! I’ve been lurking since I saw you on John Campbell’s channel during the pandemic. Grateful for the love you engender and the insights that you offer. Proud Minnesotan! Your analysis of Harris’ chances are sobering, and I believe you have a keen view of the situation. I also think that Americans will come through with the Harris-Walz ticket come November. Peace to you and the beautiful community!
I think Harris should of went with someone from a swing state...but I do love Minnesota...I am from Iowa. 😊
Trump is not distinct favourite, no matter how many times you say it….
Trump 2024 🇺🇸 🇺🇲 🇺🇸 🇺🇲 🇺🇸
Think about what I am doing not just what I am saying. I am saying it because my Audience leans toward wishful thinking on this - so it’s my responsibility to say it
It's safer to be pessimistic.
@@VladVexlerChat I don’t get it - if you are saying that you are exaggerating for effect - you will fall into the doctor prescribing placebos trap - no one can trust you as they don’t know if you are attempting a Machiavellian manipulation on them.
Polling needs another couple weeks to catch up to all of the craziness of the past few weeks, plus of course the VP nomination just today, plus we have the convention coming up which will scramble things again.
I've been observing polls for a while. I'd say at this point we have good evidence that Harris is better than Biden was when he dropped out. We don't yet have good evidence that she's better in polling than Biden was before the debate (at that point, Biden was about even with Trump). She's probably about the same as Biden was then. She is nowhere close to where Biden was in 2020.
We definitely don't have good evidence that she is beating Trump in key states. It's currently close in several key states.
My best guess is that she'll continue to improve a bit in the coming weeks. Polling hasn't even caught up to her being the presumptive nominee... many good pollsters haven't posted a poll since then.
Even if she does take a clear advantage in polling, it's worth noting that pollsters have... significantly underestimated Trump's performance in the electoral college twice now. A "moderate" level of error. They know that and many of them have no doubt attempted to fix this. We can only guess how much (and in what direction) they'll be off this time.
Personally, I think it's a complete toss-up, and I think we'll need to see a pretty big shift in polling to say it's anything other than a toss-up. This won't happen within the next few weeks, but it could happen on the scale of months. If an election were held today, I'm pretty confident Trump would win... but it's immaterial.
Thank you for your thoughts. What exactly makes you think Trump is a distinct favourite still? The polls don't really reflect that?
I don't agree with his statement, but for the sake of Devil's Advocate here:
I think you can easily make the argument that, based on the structure of my (American) government and election system, as well as historical voting trends (young people, far left, etc do not vote. They just don't.) that Trump has advantages in the actual vote that don't appear in things like social media.
I think you can also make an argument that demographics favor Trump and the Republicans (hispanics being the largest minority, and shifting further right due to Evangelical beliefs, as well as white voters in general), or that factors like Trump's cult of personality outweigh other things that should matter more.
I think you can also make an argument that many voters, at least in America, are really really stupid and uninformed. They have no clue how the world works, they have no interest in how the world works, they have no desire in learning more, they want to live in their bubble and have someone tell them what they want to hear. That also benefits Trump. Though this argument is probably more me screaming at the clouds than a logical expression.
I think the bookies have it at 60/40 Trump. Nate Silver is at 50/50 roughly. My interpretation of the polls in this moment of moment is that she needs to be a little further ahead in the key states to win. Interpreting polls also means being able to judge what value to give all polls in your estimation. There is a risk of over estimating polls epistemically. I am at 70/30 for Trump. But that is course is just a psychological clue. I am not offering that as anything more than a modest and informed intuition.
@@VladVexlerChat Thank you.
Polls tell you who is polling, most Americans show who they support only at the vote. Maybe thats culturally different depending on the democracy. Our independets dont do polls but they do vote against whoever pisses them off. @@VladVexlerChat
@@VladVexlerChat your interpretation is most important as above @runawayshay6409 though i would rephrase her argument to emphasize a more "conservative" and even "common-emotionality/sense" that a nationwide poll requires Harris to be ahead by 5-10% points due to the swing-states required to capture the Electoral College vs the popular vote. Trump needs to be ahead in only 6 states which is where he is now. i think that trump wants to be given credit for everything he lies about without looking to see what heis really responsible for ----- he is tough to talk with / debate.
I cannot say if I would like Zelensky if I met him but he is a brave, patriotic man who is willing to fight for his country. That it what they need at the moment.
would be interested in your take on the terrible far right protests on in the UK, considering you live here and are an immigrant.
Any insight into why it's going on? It looks to me like both sides are talking past each other as usual. Any wisdom in how to respond as a regular person? Honestly I'm seeing a panic in the response of those around me, sometimes understandably, but sometimes not to the point of being counter-productive.
Curtis Yarvin (Mencius Moldbug) is the central philosopher behind the neoreactionary ideas that have influenced Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, and J.D. Vance. His criticism of democracy and his proposals for alternative forms of governance have had a significant impact on discussions about the future of politics and technology in Silicon Valley.
Exactly why don't you like zelensky
Tone implies that the default position for those who support Ukraine should be liking Zelensky, which is not my ethos here. I encourage exploration.
@@VladVexlerChat UPDATE: Ignore comment below. I missed your pinned comment.
I think I get it between you and some others. Thanks for your opinion.
ORIGINAL:
"I would like to see a little content on your opinion as well. My knowledge of Ukraine and Zelensky is pretty limited but I too thought he was generally well liked. Your statement was news to me. Maybe I missed a video or three."
@@VladVexlerChat I feel similarly to you about Zelenskyy. It's a bit like my very Socialist grandparents who loathed Churchill politically in the 1930s, but recognised his accurate assessment of Hitler. They were happy to support him during WW2, but along with millions of others booted him out when it was over. I'm a bit sentimental so must admit I warmed more to Zelenskyy the other day when I saw him and his wife being genuinely kind and playful with some very young children.
He was universally unliked in Ukraine before the war. He isn't very good at picking good people, Ukraine didn't improve much when he came to power. He's a populist who didn't deliver. But now we have war, so everything has changed. The minute the war is over, he will be voted out.
Autocratic tendencies for a start.
No doubt he is the right man in the right place at the right time, but that doesn't mean he is infallible.
I follow special elections like its got season 1.... i just don't understand where that 70/30 for trump is coming from. I just don't..... all special elections have seen democrats overperforming.
What happened to Mark Kelly as VP?
It’s more important that he keeps his senate seat.
Good to see you again, Vlad. I hope you are able to get into the sunshine occasionally. Much love.
🌻🌻🌻
Vlad lives in England, there's like 5 hours of sunshine a year
I don't think we or you can really judge Zelenskyys character
Like, has she even had a chance to outline her policy at all?? 😂
You’re looking well! I watch your videos often and today you just look great! Compliments 🇺🇸
Deny the beautiful community your slurps at your own peril Vlad Vexler! Thanks as ever and well wishes!
Don`t worry-we all slurp.It`s the most enjoyable part of drinking tea.
Thanks for the content Vlad, legend!
Highly thought provoking video Vlad.
Do appreciate your distinction between what you’re “doing” with the audience rather than what you’re “saying” with the 70-30 number.
Certainly put the fear in my stomach when I have been so pleased with the Harris / Walz momentum.
Noble sacrifice to take a personal reputation hit of your objective prediction for the sake of keeping people politically engaged 🫡
I do not let my opinion of Zelensky affect my opinion of whether we should be helping Ukraine or not. I feel like that would be wrong.
Khhhello!
I am 7,400th by the way.
@@VladVexlerChat damn, you positively smoked me this time!
@@VladVexlerChatNow that was a quality kkkhhello 👌
Ххххелло!
Vlad what do you think about Allan Lichtman’s 13 keys to predicting next US president?
I think they have a strong element of vacuity in them and are only predictively interesting during a certain historical moment. We are half way out of that moment now, so his model will be working less well than say in the 1990s.
@@VladVexlerChat isn't that one of those negatives which are difficult to give evidence for? Besides most of his predictions are post 2000.
They are a nonsense.
@@kernel2006 Well, they say he got 9 out of the past 10 elections right, and he himself he got 10 out of 10 right. The only thing that got me puzzled is that by going by the keys, Biden still should have beat Trump easily and the polls were starting to heavily veer off into the opposite direction.
@@VladVexlerChat I find them interesting, but maybe I was watching too many of his podcasts. Let's see if it will work out again.
Until we're more familiar with Tim Walz and his views on strategy regarding Ukraine, I will hold my opinion back.
Like Zelenskyy, it's difficult to know where these positions land. Tim Walz is very much a person who looks at the bigger picture, works to solve problems affecting people who are not in the positions of power.
I'll wait. On balance, there are possibilities for a change in the attitudes towards Ukraine.
I can agree the focus should be on security, European and international.
Your observation isn't less conventional to us Americans 😘
I don’t expect her to focus much on foreign policy. I hope she focuses on domestic economic issues primarily
Walz is a good supporter of Ukraine, and he is a veteran so maybe there won’t be the drip feed of help to Ukraine
I mean, this is one of those topics which are interesting but which you can’t really say much about. She hasn’t really formulated her own take on Ukraine yet.
Good talk Vlad
You do not like Zelenskij? Why would that be, Vladimir? And I am asking this out of real interest.
He was not such a good politician in his first years.. but I see a person who really has been growing with the situation...
Walz has been a surprise to me.
But surely as a European I don't know enough about the candidates for the US-VO to have a decent oppinion on this matter, I guess.
Which country in Europe? There are some interesting facts about Walz. He's one of the most progressive possible picks in terms of climate. He's very pro-education, pro-labor and pro-anti-trust like Biden. He's also Midwestern. For decades the conventional wisdom was that Democrats ALWAYS need a Southerner on the ticket to win. (Old baggage. Remember my country did have a North-South Civil War over slavery once.) Since Obama (Illinois) and Biden (Pennsylvania) won, it looks more like it's the GOP that depends on a Southern candidate while a Democratic ticket needs a Midwesterner.
Vlad, I don’t think you are reading the US electorate correctly with your 70-30 reference in favor of Trump.
I suggest taking another read on the race in 30 days, after Labor Day.
Even against a past his prime Joe Biden, Donald Trump was nowhere near a 70% favorite. I really think the higher ups in the Democratic party who influenced Joe Bidens decision to step down never imagined Harris would take off like she did. They had been planning to choose a new front runner until they realized you can't stopping this type of momentum. Based on her prior interviews as VP, I myself thought she would flop when put in that position. She ain't flopping. Anything can still happen, but as of now she's picking up momentum while Donald Trumps support seems to be maxed out.
If Harris wins, her EU, and especially Scholz, relationships will be interesting to watch.
It's not certain Scholz going to be around for long, though.
Did Vlad just make a Game of Thrones reference?
I find it strange that people have a personal dislike for Mister Zelensky. Like the overwhelming majority, I do not know him personally, and have only been able to judge his role as head of state in this most violent wartime. That is the amost sole criteria I am willing to judge him on, in the citcumstances. Putin and Trump have provided manifest examples of their character outside of wartime.
You actually have been able to judge his role as a spokesman for his country in the international public sphere where he is good. Unfortunately, there is more to being a head of state in the wartime than speaking with foreign leaders. Zelensky made and makes a slew of obvious political, economic and internal public opinion handling mistakes that cost his people dearly (consequences are fast and dire in wartime). Not that there is somebody better suited for this role in Ukraine right now. Still, again, don't mistake Churchill-like behavior before a camera with Churchill's handing of war routine.
Could you elaborate more on what you mean by "most emotionally intelligent people I know, who deeply support Ukraine, and like the region and know the region well, do not like Zelensky. I do not like Zelensky."? I do not claim to know interpersonal details about the man, nor do I have skin in the game as to his likeability, but isn't that just appeal to authority in support of your own feelings? Statements like these really rub me the wrong way. "Every intelligent person I know, who deeply supports Ukraine, does not like Putin." Even this version, someone who I personally feel is "not liked", rubs me the wrong way. I don't know how to put it any better, I'm not a trained or practiced philosopher or debater, but something in my bones tells me that isn't the most appropriate way to explain your perspective or point. Whether I agree or disagree with it. Much love sir, I did enjoy the video
I concur. It elides logic for more sophisticated version of "Trust me bro". Representing the opposing view with funny voices and caricatured strawmen doesn't change that.
Indeed. The subcontext would be, that if you like the man, you must be 'emotionally unintelligent'. I reject that generalization.
What a difference 4 days makes. Trump is trailing in all polls, and Harris’s lead is widening.
Vlad--A couple of key points here. 1) Harris enters her term with hopes of winning a second term. Just as Biden was able to walk away from Afghanistan without it being a major factor four years later, Harris gets the same option on Ukraine. 2) Harris comes from Jamaican and India direct ancestry, went to middle and high school in Quebec province and college at Howard University. As such, there are fewer emotional ties to traditional post WW2 European world views. I am not making any predictions here, but would not be surprised if she seeks to avoid a major continuation of financial commitment to the Ukraine conflict. Remember, despite his huffing and puffing, and drawing lines in the sand, that was also Obama's position.
Not sure I agree with you darling, Harris will support UA
That's some good slurping noises right at the beginning
While I find the quality of the main channel really good, I must say the chat channel triggers me more and more negatively. I don't know if your increasing quick reactions are compatible with your more thoughtful side, which is less personally biased.
Trump is too old.
Thats probably the least problematic thing about him
@@picklejuice4638Oh, I know. 💯😂
Thanks
Totally agree with your assessment of how to frame the support of Ukraine. The morality aspect worked for a while. The geopolitical advantageous positioning is a more marketable talking point, here in the US.
A video or only 5 minutes of why you think Trump will win against Harris would be nice. Thanks.
Trump has enthusiastic supporters. Are they more numerous than his detractors??? We’ll see. Trumps been out of office, and becomes more palatable to passers-by than an incumbent. IMO
I'm much more exposed to the fawning adoration for Zelensky on many platforms and I see far less of from those who don't like him so I'm rather ignorant of those dissenting opinions toward him. And I get the sense that overwhelming positive perception of him internationally is somehow incomplete. So, why would anyone not like him, what are those arguments?
Hi Vlad, interesting to hear your comments about Zelensky’s personality - which I was a little surprised to hear (but only a tiny bit), though I must confess I haven’t really seen enough of that aspect of him to form any assessment myself - other than comments have heard from Ukrainian commentators about for example his poor relationship with General Zalugeny before he was forced to step aside. Can you please enlighten me/us, obviously without wanting to hear it sound like a kind of character assassination? I hear he’s one of Ukraine’s relatively rich elite if that is part of the issue, or is it more about his approach to messaging on how to get what Ukraine really needs without putting people’s backs up? Appreciate your thought on this. [Edit: just read your pinned comment after had said this. To clarify, I don’t disagree with your assessment - in fact I’m agreeing when you say we and I don’t really know enough to judge - so look forward to hearing your insight on this ❤️]
I like your channel.
I like Zelensky and I am emotionally intelligent.
It's important to note that no-one will really know how effective Harris will be until/unless it is known who would be her Secretary of State. She would be making decisions based on a potential Sec of State's input.
Please do educate us more regarding Zelensky.
Perhaps on main channel!
Vlad you ned to slurp, its part of what I expect form your vids !!
Personalty I love Zelensky. " I don't need a ride, I need ammunition". Mike drop!
Betting odds on Harris and Trump are about a pick'em today. Would not be surprising to have Harris favored across the board within a couple weeks.
What a great video. First of all, I find it absolutely mad that "Ukraine's arguments for Western support are mostly moralistic" while they've should've became increasingly pragmatic. IMO, talking points should look something like this:
1. While Russia has a frontline with Ukraine in the Donbas, NATO does not have a frontline with Russia in the Baltics.
2. While Russia is under sanctions it has less levers and resourses to throw around to destabilise Western democratic institutions. I would rather bet on Ukrainian Army vs Russian Army than on Western corruption & incompetence vs Russian dirty money & subversion.
3. While Russia is not going to crumble in the next couple of weeks, it is not invincible either. It doesn't have a limitless manpower or an endless amount of Soviet armored vehicles hidden somewhere in Siberia, and Putin cannot use Stalin's military and industrial mobilization methods, because a) it's not 1941 and we live in a different time with different people; b) that would be the end of him.
4. For now it is impossible to engage in rational conversation with Kremlin because Kremlin itself right now doesn't have a rational view of the West (and Western involvement with Ukraine). They're basically fighting windmills.
5. There aren't that many people on this planet today who are actually capable of pushing the red button. People like Curtis LeMay could've pushed the button. Putin is definitely not Curtis LeMay, and neither his generals or his camarilla (they didn't fleece all of that budget money just to see it burning away in a nuclear fire).
6. Abandoning Ukraine right now would be the greatest geopolitical blunder since the Miracle of the House of Brandenburg during the Seven Years' War.
But for some reason Ukraine engages in rhetoric about "freedom", maybe because they have distorted view of the West themselves.
Second, I'm glad someone is acknowledged that Zelensky is not likeable. He's stubborn, petulant, banal and vulgar. As a person he bears much closer resemblance to Trump than people in the West are realizing (it's really hard to blame them though, they don't know the language and they don't have even a passing knowledge of Ukrainian culture and politics for the past 20-25 years, although maybe it's actually a good thing). In my opinion, people of Ukraine will pass a test of political maturity only if they give him the boot in the election despite his heroics (just like Churchill got it in 1945).
Third, it's refreshing to see that you hadn't got caught in Kamala's "surge"; I think she has most of Hillary's vulnerabilities without many advantages over her, but with the main difference being that people in the US are much more wary of Trump than they were in 2016.
And finally, I would love to see a video about democratic incapacity in relation to foreign policy, because from my highly superficial and rather uneducated point of view, barging in without a strategic approach is the modus operandi of the US diplomacy since, like, ever; it's just blunder after blunder with little actual successes, no matter what party's in charge, and I've never quite understood why.
The democracy/autocracy is even MORE relevant today than 1-2 years ago as the actors of this "axis of evil" are increasingly confrontational and their actions have progressed towards the kinetic.
Zelensky's character finding the moment that brought it out reminds me of my lefty ideas about hierarchy: it's only valid circumstantially. E.g., a surgeon should be in charge during an appendectomy, but a businessman doesn't get to be in charge of my society (i.e., excess productive capacity or electoral office) just because he's rich and knows how to make a good investment. That's a tough point to make in the US right now. It's too unintuitive.
@@ScottJohnston-hy2jt True, but I'm not just talking about Trump. This applies to Romney or Musk or any number of powerful people. What I'm saying is anti-capitalist because I disagree with handing excess productive capacity to the capitalists, a la Adam Smith. I believe in democratic collective use of that capacity instead. That's why what I'm saying is lefty. That said, I'm also against the way authority is traditionally granted in the West. I think authority is a very dangerous tool that should only be granted sparingly and according to necessity before being snatched back. That's not the way our assorted republics and monarchies behave and I think this is a source of a lot of violence and instability.
You hit that hail square on its head. Just because you know how to make money doesn't mean you know how to run a country. I keep thinking of that line in Series 1 of Succession which said America was designed to be a factory to turn people's suffering into gold. And I feel right now, that I don't want to live in a factory. I want to live in a home, within a community. Probably naive, idealistic, and unrealistic, but that's what my gut says.
@@CuriousCrow-mp4cx You and me both.
I like Zelensky! But I’m not Cambridge educated or whatever. So maybe I’m an ignoramus.
Слава Україні! 🇺🇦
I really don't see trump gaining popularity since he lost last time. I think Biden would have won, & I think Kamala will win.
Vlad can you do a video as to why people might dislike Zelensky, it seems that a number of people have issues but for me i just hope he stays in power and sails the boat through this taught times after that not too interested what he does.
The weekend polls show major shift toward Harris/Walz in the swing state, including my own (Nevada). Harris is strong rule of law and that is in Ukraine’s favor.
Why do you think Trump is still 70-30 likely to win?
Thanks Vlad. helpful and thoughtful as always. In particular, one of the national/global security reasons for the US (and Europe) to support Ukraine is the strategic reality that the Kremlin gang would be even more dangerous if they dominated Ukraine or a very large part of it. It is right to support Ukraine defending itself, but it is also protecting our own security. Although Ukrainians are very strongly resisting Moscow, the Kremlin would not hesitate to use extreme methods in order to exert control where they could. Moscow has abducted civilians including children and we have seen how their army treats Ukrainians in the temporarily occupied territories.
I love you Vlad and I love your messages.
But If I may, your videos would benefit greatly from a sort of bullet points on a post it note about what you want to tell us.
I hope your health is ... Manageable. Lots of love
Vlad, as a outsider also looking in US politics, it is time to unite that country. It can't really happen until Trump who has been divided it, is past history. It is high time.
The division in America has been deliberate & purposeful, by people who do not have America's best interests at heart
You once criticised the beautiful community for often saying that things are 'obviously true / false' as opposed to explaining why they are true.
I feel saying that 'emotionally intelligent people' / 'people who know the region' don't like Zelensky somewhat falls into that trap.
No it doesn’t. It’s not obviously true.
Something is "obviously true/false" thus it doesn't need explanation why something is true. "People with more knowledge of the situation think..." is exactly that: a rational explanation why something is good/bad/true/false. You may don't like that explanation - "what do they know, people with more knowledge!!" - and it's certainly an argument, but you can't equal complete lack of explanation with explanation, even if you don't think it's a good explanation.
@@VladVexlerChat I agree, but it's a departure from your usual style to effectively appeal to authority without additional discussion. A sort of 'well if you know about these things, you'd agree', in the same way that something being 'obviously' true, implies your interlocutor is simply uninformed.
Methinks you are teasing us.
@@grahortarg9933 "People with knowledge of the region" is just "obviously true" one degree removed - i.e. it would be obvious if you had more knowledge.
"People with emotional intelligence" is taking the piss.
Both talk down to the listener without explanation in a way that Vlad ordinarily avoids.
@@sstvost9 appeal to authority is not a fallacy when the authority is relevant. "you have this illness because a number of physicians agree that you have it" is not equal to "you have illness because it's obviously true".