‘1987 Crisis’ Approaches As Credit Markets ‘Revolt’ | Jim Thorne
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- čas přidán 30. 06. 2024
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Jim Thorne, Chief Market Strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel, remains tactically long the equity markets, but says major headwinds will prevail post-2025.
Jim’s last interview: • Brink Of ‘Perilous Fin...
*This video was recorded on June 28, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
1:16 - Credit markets will 'revolt'
3:00 - Tax policies
8:40 - Inflation
18:27 - Fed monetary policy
22:50 - Yield curve and recession
24:23 - AI and the economy
32:14 - Market outlook
#stocks #trumpvsbiden #economy
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Who won the Presidential debate? What impact does the outcome of the election have on the economy? Comment below your thoughts and don't forget to subscribe!
FOLLOW JIM THORNE:
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Liz Truss was a scapegoat. UK credit markets collapsed because the previous government defaulted on RPI linked bonds repricing them in CPI.
Housing crisis, health crisis, cost of living crisis, debt crisis, inflation crisis, EU war crisis, middle East crisis. How many crises can a koala bear? I'm approaching retirement with comfortable millions, yet scared of a banking crisis. Where do I best grow my money?
Diversify… T bills, CDs, Gold, Stocks, Municipal bonds, Bitcoin, Real estate, etc assets speak when cash has no value
I would advise the counsel of a seasoned financial pro. It may be expensive, but as the old saying goes "You get what you pay for." "Expert solutions require Expert providers" - my mantra.
Truth is, investing with the help of a financial advisor set me up for life, retired as a millionaire at 55. I worked hard everyday as a teacher for 32 years, and my salary was over 100k annually. But if it wasn't for 2020 covid lockdown, I wouldn't have supplemented my income with stocks and alternative investments.
@@JamesWillock bravo! I've worked in real estate for over 25 years and have neglected a major stock portfolio, however I need a different plan now... mind if I look up the professional guiding you please?
Karen Lynne Chess is the licensed advisor I use. Just google the name and you’d find necessary deets. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
David, you usually have good guests on. This guy is not one of them.
Yeah, this guy is a mouth breather. He thinks that the far-right is pushing trickle down economics; clearly he doesn't know what far-right or the right even means; he needs to read the book Basic Economics by Thomas Sowell. The Government will just waste your money making their crony rich. We're in this mess because of entitlement programs and 30-year mortgages. I ran the numbers on how fast the price of housing goes up at 6.25 APR 30-year mortgage, and the prices of homes goes up to $10 MILLION in 90 years for an average house. That wasn't a Right wing policy, that was a Leftist policy to try to make the social hierarchy more even by using the State to facilitate people owning homes. The Right supports the natural social hierarchy and would back not using government programs to try to lift people out of poverty like ESG, DEI, Affirmative Action, etc.
He's increasingly featured escapees from academic nuthouses--modern monetary theoriests and Keynesians.
The quality of guests is certainly in decline. It's the YT "expert" circuit, where in fact there a very few "experts", but instead...a lot of content creators.
I suppose when one has a channel that puts out videos with such frequency, it's difficult to maintain quality
Thanks David for an excellent interview! Twist is, how does Fed cut rates without sending housing prices even higher? Fed lowering rates near 0 and the resulting 'financialization' of residential real estate made current housing market a problem not easily solved
That doesn't make any sense. You need to run the numbers on how fast the price of a home goes up under a 30-year mortgage. After 90 years an average house that is $400K now costs $10 MILLION at 6.25% APR. Literally the only way to lower the price of housing is to make the APR at the rate of inflation. This guest is a mouth breather who lacks oxygen to the brain and can't do basic economics math.
Lower govt. spending, lower taxes on the middle class. That simple.
Wow,50%BS
Such a dinosaur,
95%
This interview has so much gold but it seems many in the comments missed it. Great interview.
Hallelujah!!! I’m blessed and favored with $60,000 every week! Now I can afford anything and support the work of God and the church. For Your glory, LORD! HALLELUJAH!
Oh really? Tell me more! Always interested in hearing stories of successes.
This is what Ana Graciela Blackwelder does, she has changed my life.
After raising up to 60k trading with her, I bought a new house and car here in the US and also paid for my son’s (Oscar) surgery. Glory to God.shalom.
I know Ana Graciela Blackwelder, and I have also had success...
Absolutely! I have heard stories of people who started with little or no knowledge but managed to emerge victorious thanks to Ana Graciela Blackwelder.
I am done with this guy after first 4 minutes! Lol
Recession- “2 consecutive 1/4s of gdp” therefore we been in recession for 2 years specially if like this guy says government spending is propping up the market right?
Just sharing this in public interest: comparing CPU based businesses to blackberry is not accurate. CPU infra may become more commoditized, but GPUs are not replacing the workflows that need CPU infra, not now, not in a decade.
There is no extreme right wing. The guy discredits himself using this term.
Everyone is over leveraged by our creative financial system
This joker's got one helluva crystal ball.
Bidenomics 101
Rates will NOT GO UNDER 2 % they may go to 7% never going low again or we go Argentina
This scenario is being displayed from the macro perspective. The common worker, blue and white collar, will be experiencing an initial stagflation broken eventually by a worldwide depression.
This depression, in effect, will be never ending because of AI/technology is QUICKLY eliminating human employee need !
As much as socialism and communism have proven ineffective and discriminatory, an 'altered type' seems the only hope of societal system !
What an arrogant gent
What makes you say this?
True
When people use political categories like "right wing" or "left wing" to discuss economic issues, the reason is that they are unable to analyze the economic issues intelligently. I enjoyed the law firm ad, but I turned this off early in.
Nah. Much of the malign of the economy is due to policy. Policies are politically driven.
He is correct that the inflation spike was due to DT but both he and JB have spent like money is going out of style. I totally disagree with his SP500 forecast from now into end of decade. There is a sizable correction incoming very soon maybe 40-50%. It could be a 10-15% correction first then another run up to 5700-5800 maybe even a quick spike to around 6000 then the 40-50% correction. If it does do the spike to around 6000 the correction could actually be 60%.
The US economy is a powerhouse with a diverse range of sectors. The stock market and the dollar have traditionally been safe havens due to their long-term growth and stability. However, potential downturns are part of the economic cycle, and laws are in place to manage defaults and asset seizures. Inflation can be a concern, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays , whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Sandy Barclays program is widely available online..
Indeed, the recent market downturn serves as evidence that a vast majority of individuals lacked a sufficient understanding of the underlying financial dynamics at play.
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
Sandy Barclays approaches trading in a completely unique way. I'm puzzled by her methods. She just seems to have an innate understanding of this trading world
The truth is, with this recent economy everyone needs more than their salary to be financially stable. The best thing to do with your money is to invest it rightly because money left for savings always ends up used with no returns...
Biden, “Far right wing”? I’m done already!
The g needs to cut spending which will never happen. We need higher interest rates to curtail consumer spending. Zero rates fueled moral hazard and over leveraging. Savers were punished for years.
🎉🎉 he is living in a phantasy world 🌍
Exactly, the guy is full AI hype - no substance.
You're the one living in a fantasy world dumfuk.
Oh hell no, Morgan & Morgan got you?
It was a very bad decision to remove the Glass-Steagall Act in the late 1990s, which led to the spectacular failure of huge banks during the financial crisis of 2007-2008. To prevent another disaster, Dodd-Frank and this statute both need to be reestablished right away. What happened with SVB is only the beginning of what will happen if nothing is done to address the current situation.
I believe SVB was making an effort to reorganize their bond portfolio. Yes, they would lose money if they sold their low-yielding bonds. But, they were trying to make up for it by repurchasing bonds on the open market at the higher interest rate.
Although the economy has so far held up, the SVB scenario serves as a warning that Fed rate hikes are still having an impact. At times like this, investors must be vigilant about the next inevitability. You don't have to act on every forecast, therefore I'll advise you to hire a financial counselor. This has been my fallback position for a while.
Would you mind telling me how to contact this specific coach using their service? Unlike the rest of us, it appears you have figured everything out.
Her name is “VIVIAN CAROL GIOIA” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
I find this informative, curiously explored Vivian on the web, spotted her consulting page, and was able to schedule a call session with her, she shows quite a great deal of expertise from her resume.. very much appreciated
The federal government has grown to an astronomical size. It’s drowning out the private sector along with 15 years of bills of green regulations.
if no one ever ate Yakdonalds again, how much human lard would be lost
Nobody pays owners equivalent rent bro. So if anything that number is lower than actual rent increases.
Such a rookie mistake naming specific companies thinking they represent the economy. For every company he named you can find one doing the opposite. This guy just talks a lot
Love this, always good dialog!
We are in a recession now
See Nike. Elevator shaft coming to all stocks.
Nike keep you
on the ball --> ⚽
This dude doesn't mention the demand for the debt , as the debt grows to such a large amount , people will but other savings assets , and the demand for bonds will collapse .
Great talk. It’s a good reason for active skilled wealth management.
this guy is right. Biden spent money like there is no tomorrow. Trump will be more tamed and the market will go back to decent valuations
The guy is only AI hype - no substance. The AI potential is much smaller than the potential of computer fuelled growth and then internet fuelled growth.
30:14 "the picks and shovels" are making earnings. The companies actually investing in AI for the productivity of their business haven't yet seent he earnings boost from AI. We don't know if the ROI will be good enough.
2:30 “if Biden implements right wing economic policies…” Huh? Uh backwards? Needs editing.
All politicians cater to the corporations and banks or else they would not be set up as candidates by the corporatocracy.
This guy seems to be in cognitive decline.
gov spectrum: Anarchy (no gov, no laws) the far right, then libertarian (limited gov.), then middle of the road republicans and democrats, then liberal (more gov. control) on the left and then totalitarian on the far left (total gov. control-CCP, USSR, Nazi-fascist). look it up
Absolutely correct.
Cool story
I would much rather have a capitalist businessman to get us through what’s coming than a career politician who only knows academics and not the real world.
I want Trump to win to stick it to the Establishment. But. There is nothing he can do to stop what is about to happen. Doesn't matter who's president right now. That would lead you to wonder why they did this debate 3 months early and CNN is reporting Biden lost. They want Trump to win now so they can Jimmy Carter him.
I would rather have a proper capitalist businesman, than a career politician. But what we have are two really bad options.......Trump is not a proper capitalist businessman, he has repeatedly run his businesses into bankrupcy, and survives by lying and cheating. There is a certain street smarts to him, but it is only ever to advance his own self interests, and he is so self centred that I hesitate to even say his families interestes. Actually the choice is between a decrepid career politician, who at least is mostly transparent, and a mafia don. There is no capitalist businessman in the equation.
I disagree. We need Art Laffer back.
AI paranoia of investors ... It could be just super mega scam at the end with no money because now it's just advanced search engine and it takes many dozen years to became AI which all investors talking and dreaming about now ! But what we have ?.massive in 16 years money outflow from tech and massive magnificent 6 bayback and hype
My home and cars insurance just went up 20% this year period!
Mine went up 43% a year back, no accidents, no tickets. Nothing cheaper, in fact way more expensive options.
It will be even higher than that in a few more years if interest rates aren't raised and excessive money printing isn't stopped. 😳
Sell your cars and buy cheaper ones, I don’t have that problem and I tell you what it’s nice not throwing my money away trying to impress the neighbours.
@@BusyMan-er5gsI buy more expensive cars because the ones I buy last longer and more dependable… I don’t buy cheap cars. It’s like buying cheap food. It’s bad for you in the long run 😂
@bbustin1747 he said cheaper, not cheap. Toyota's and Mazda's any day of the week for me. If you want a little more class, buy a lexus 😂.
Not buying the AI conversation. The effects on people's lives is either discounted or literally imagined favorably. People don't trust these companies and rightfully so. Hoping for the best but not looking good right now.
I am convince this man doesn't know what he's talking about! All he said " all you need left lending economist with the Trump cabinet", what the heck does that mean?
I think he got confused.
He's in cognitive decline.
Top 10% of taxpayers pay 76% of taxes. The bottom 50% of taxpayers pay 2.3% of taxes. The bottom group had tax cuts of 9.3% and the top had cuts of 0.04%. The middle taxpayers had a cut of 10.3%. I think I can spend my money more to my needs than the government. So keep the cuts and also cut the useless spending to keep more of my hard earned and hard sacrificed money in my own pocket. Money isn’t everything but it’s right up there with oxygen as a wise man once said.
Cool story. Need more taxes
Let's talk % of income.So if I make 100 a year and pay 50 in taxes and you make 1000000 and pay 500 you pay ten times more than me correct?
This guy is spot on. Unfortunately people can’t set their partisan brainwashing aside to see he’s got some good ideas. Good interview.
This man is ignorant. You can’t have a Fed funds rate of. .75% and say you want to have a fiscal debt growth of20$trillion++ (as forecast by CBO) over the next10 years along with 10$trillionof trade deficits.
Great guest.
Brilliant
David is in youth commie heaven with this guy
SOOO many experts in the comment section. 😂
I had trouble getting into this one
If you listen to the whole thing, it makes sense.
“Extreme right wing…”…. Unfortunate comment for him
Exactly. He sounds like a leftist
And he kept saying it too.
Extreme right wingers don't realize people notice them for what they are.
Ugg. You are promoting ambulance chasers now.
Pick up those dimes homie.
🚑
David, You have hit such hard times that you have to accept the unscrupulous Morgan and Morgan as a sponsor? I'm so sorry! 😢
The problem is spending not more tax.
No Budget. Debt ceiling “suspended”
The problem is the haves hoarding more and more riches and not paying a fair tax and exacerbating income inequality
And this is how you can talk 40 minutes and do not say anything useful.
Blowing it up is depression
Housing crisis is easy! Forbid foreign investment in residential homes, forbid any commercial firms from investing in single family homes,. let the market crash by 80-90% and house will be affordable again for normal people, for which it is actually built. Investment and speculation can be done in commercial / industrial real estate, plenty of profits to be made! Let the overleveraged crash and burn and normal working class people to buy homes again with 5y mortgage.
I never recovered from the 2008 crisis.
GROY TMC and AG 🚀🚀🚀🚀
27:43 Does this gentleman own a map? Is he up on his supply-chain metrics?
174k...the booster rockets are at full power...whoa😮...
AI doesn't make any money
The first interview I’m not buying at all. This guy has a bridge to sell
All of this video is ignoring the fact that real estate problems are no longer local but global... No soft landing for North America or anyone else
Inflation is 1O%.
Wrong wrong wrong. We dont need centrist policies. We need severe govt austerity AND tax cuts.
Exactly. This guy is wrong.
Oh god David…..another woke dem lovin guest?
Yeah man I hate david is now going far left ...im gonna unsub if he keeps it up
The crypto market has been unfavorable for months and I keep losing my money selling-off during dips, I'm very scared of holding right now, how do you guys still make so much….?
Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to Christen wilburn
You trade ?? Wow that's huge, how do you make that much monthly?
Christen wilburn was my hope during the 'bear summer' last year. I did so many mistakes but also learned so much from it, and of course from christen wilburn.
thats true VENTURING into the trading and investment world without the help of a profesionals, trading and expecting profit is like turning water into wine you would need a miracle...
Christen approaches trading in a completely unique way. I'm puzzled by her methods. She just seems to have an innate understanding of this trading world.
Jim contradicts his own thesis so often he is half right and half wrong.
Tesla? Seriously? Self driving Robo taxis? Tesla the first AI company? Joke right?
Yikes. Morgan and Morgan are ambulance chasers. Disappointed to see them as a sponsor.
Another “expert and economist” who can’t get out their bubble thinking. This guy said so many things that were extremely far fetched but when he started talking about the demographic blowoff top bull market that would be caused my millennial family formation I laughed and he lost what little credibility he had left. I am a millennial and we are going through quite the opposite of a blow off top in family formation lol we’re going through a bust and david correctly pointed out how most millennials almost all can’t afford homes. This clown then said yeah but what about when Bitcoin goes to $500k 😒
This dude is a Trump hater. Golf analogy? Did he even listen to the debate?
25:53 or not big...
i don't think this guest knows what right wing means . If he means that supply side economics would create a larger deficit, that has not been the case previously. If it is not already too late, the US must begin a long term policy of reducing the national debt.
Awesome interview David. This guy nailed it with flying colors. Straight to the point! Like it happened and as it is. 👌🏻
Guy has literal filing cabinets in the back talking about AI. Bet all he knows how to operate is a iphone. Seeing a senior citizen talking about AI, you know its a bubble.
this guy is ridiculous
all the listerns need to know is 2024 is nowhere near as simple as 1987 from coming out of the great recession to fueling historic bubbles in stocks,bonds, real estate thru the 2010s and then the one 2 punch of the pandemic also igniting it higher, a plaque inflation and wars adverting a recession " unofficially " for 16 years now this is x5 worse then 1987 does it some in between 2008 and 1929 or worse then 1929 ?
Wow that was a great interview🎉
What is the best way to make money trading investing in cryptocurrencies??
Get yourself someone who understands the market very well and is also professional in the placement of trades. that's the key
The professional is Mrs. Olivia Mej.
Yes, it's true, I think the best way is to invest with a professional, at least you avoid the trauma of too many losses.
She helped me get back what I lost while trying to trade Olivia is great!!.>
Too optimistic for my taste
Nvidia is up 12000% this guy: were just at the beginning.
Did you just do a fucking personal injury commercial. Jesus.
Fiscal dominance.
Land a 747 on a postage stamp? How large is that postage stamp, and is that 747 going in nose 1st?
Exactly when he said this he also said the fed has a good chance to land a 747 on a post it note. The contradiction and irony in that statement can’t go underrated. Even this guys thinking is bubble like
David Lin and Dr. Hanke won Americans attention and the debate hands down..... Cheers, Mate.
Excellent Objective Perspective on Global & Domestic Economics on Fiscal Deficits Dollar, Markets,
Just an annoying series of ads disrupting every couple of mins. Unwatchable.
I'm trying to keep up to speed on all your episodes as soon as they drop. Important content here on a regular basis. Nice work.
Not happening for the soft landing old dude! Hard one is coming!
4:44 it's time to retire "trickle down economics". It's simply called economics.
Why is he yelling and so emotional?
Passion
He's an ideologue.
Great analysis 🫡
@20:15 Except the 10-year does not currently have a positive real rate of return. It is negative by quite a lot. The trick is that the CPI and PCE is a lie and it is far underreporting the actual inflation rate. In order for the 10-year to have an actual positive real rate of return appropriate for the duration, it would have to be somewhere around 9-10%. So, the funds rate is in the ballpark now where it should be given how incredibly under yielding the 10-year is and just how much of a stimulus effect it is having.
Can’t watch your show anymore with all these commercials and trying to sell space pens on the side. Your content is valuable but this is a joke.
That's the greed of UTube packing in the commercials. They pay content creators shoeshine boy money. Get the paid version to bypass the commercials. But, this new ambulance chaser sponsorship David shills is over the line.