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New Batteries: It’s Not All Hype
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- čas přidán 13. 07. 2024
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Despite dozens of press releases on new battery technologies being released every week, not much is happening. This is why I don't talk about battery tech any more. But recently I read an interesting study about the hype cycle of battery technology. Let’s have a look.
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#science #sciencenews #technology #hypecycle
I've often wondered where the Gartner Hype Cycle itself is on the Gartner Hype Cycle
@@robtweed1955 just square the result!
Don't break the matrix with your recursions haha
42.
Good point 😀 "Gartner - our hype is ahead of the hype cycle!"
I am often wondering when this ycle is allowed to proceed in the current western economic enviroment.
“ The Trough of Disillusionment “ pretty much describes my life since 2009.
Either you got married or turned 40 in 2009.
It's also a cool band name...
Your sense of humor is indicative of "The Slope of Enlightenment". =D
I feel your pain...since 1976😮
All you can eat menu? 😋😁🤓💚♾️
The problem with new battery tech is not what is possible, its what can be mass produced and had a long usuable lifespan. Most new battery tech fails at one or both of these checks.
So when the press will glow about capacity or charge time and skip over those two points, then you know its bunk.
Cost is also a decisive factor. If a new battery can store 10x the energy but costs 20x more than an existing competitor, it's technologically a better battery but no one will buy it (outside of maybe niche applications where weight is at a big premium) because you'd still be paying twice as much for the same amount of battery capacity.
@wasd____ cost can be mitigated by volume production and if it's worth it in terms of improvement over lifespan, capacity, charge times, etc. Cost is a factor but not as large as one, as you might initially think
Recyclability is also a factor for new batteries.
@Cider4144 only if the cost remains high, if the cost comes down, then it's just a talking point for environmentalists but has no bearing on the economics. Many lithium recyclers are doing OK but not as great as they thought because the cost of new lithium batteries has dropped significantly, so the cost of recycling is not significantly cheaper than just acquiring more raw materials. Sounds good on a speech, though.
It's not just those two factors. I've got an amazing battery tech for you that meets those two so well they've been available for over a century and some still work. Nickel iron batteries are extremely stable and long-lived, and so straightforward to manufacture you can do it on your dining room table. For some reason, though, people want higher energy density, though for battery storage farms I don't actually see why. Land is cheap on the outskirts of basically every grid, why use a short-lifespan chemistry when you can stack batteries that last for decades as high as you want? Oh, right, a human has to top up the distilled water in them every now and then, and humans are expensive. At least, humans in the west are, because we've broken our economic system so much manual labor is the biggest cost of just about everything.
I didn't know I wanted a unicorn that does my taxes before I saw this video but now that is the only thing I want.
Introducing the newest in tax software - Tax Unicorn!
Keep hope alive! I went to a yodeling Bigfoot concert back in 1983. So a unicorn that does taxes isn't out of the question!
It's a common misconception, in reality all unicorns can do taxes.
I hear dead people
You shouldn't joke. Batteries will soon be doing our taxes! Or the Machines will turn us into batteries and we'll be doing taxes for the robots. 🤓
I have a PhD in chemistry and I have two friends with chemistry PhD’s who work on battery technology for major US R&D companies. One works to improve existing Li-ion and the other on solid state Li-ion. Both think the best improvement in energy density for batteries we can hope for in the next decade is about 10-20%. That’s not trivial but to have practical battery powered airplanes we need a minimum of 5-10x improvement and realistically about 15x.
where have your buddies been? yoshino has been selling a better improvment than that since at least january.
@@victorhopper6774 Nope. Somebody did a tear down of one of those and found that it was not only "hyped", but outright deceptive. At best, it could be considered a semi solid state battery design. And the battery pouch still caught fire when shot with an arrow.
@@victorhopper6774that battery was found to be just lithium. They lied.
@@killrade4434 ok. ssb[s will have even more lithium. regular lithium batteries don't really have much lithium in them.
CATL has 18,000 (yes eighteen thousand) engineers and technicians working in R&D alone. 250 of which hold doctorates.
And brother let me tell you, it's chaos in the lunch room at the corporate office every day! Except for those snobby 250 PhDs. They get the Executive Menu, which includes the fancy potato chips AND a club sandwich!
That many engineers sounds like the ultimate "herding cats" scenario.
That many people, no matter how they are organized, constitutes a bureaucracy with all the "efficiencies" that entails. Any progress in this field will be made by smaller companies with fewer people.
@marinonacci1816 This is excellent because high-quality employment is the actual Purpose of Life (there's also "movies", "religions", ":jogging": & "pop stars" for those requiring Frills). In 1976 my mate figured they needed to employ just 6 more like him at British Railways Reading office and they could sell off the trains, tear up the track and the Reading office could continue exactly as it had been doing, they needed Critical Mass. High-quality employment is the actual Purpose of Life.
@@boblatkey7160Pointless comment
Her analogising the “hype cycle” to her New Year’s resolutions is a perfect example of what I love about Sabines work
There is also the category of battery storage, which can be divided into three main categories: fixed storage, transportation storage, and personal device storage. Each of these categories can be further subdivided.
1. Fixed Storage:
• Grid Storage
• Home Energy Storage
• Commercial and Industrial Storage
• Utility-Scale Storage
2. Transportation Storage:
• Electric Vehicles (EVs)
• Hybrid Vehicles
• Electric Bikes and Scooters
• Marine Batteries
• Aerospace Batteries
3. Personal Device Storage:
• Smartphones
• Laptops and Tablets
• Wearables
• Portable Chargers
• Portable Medical Devices
each catagory could demad a diffrent type of battery.
One battery feture that is generally overlooked is operational temperature range. Vehicles have a wide temperature range in which they must operate. Charging and dischargine need to be effective at extreme temperatures before they are practical for many things, including vehicles.
Check CATLs Shenxing battery. At -20 degrees celcius charged to 80% in 24 minutes. But it is worth noting that Norway is cold and has a lot of EVs.
Yeah, making a better battery for an EV is hard. There is more leeway in battery tech for short term storage on the power grid because economies of scale may allow you to control the environment of the battery more efficiently.
Not so much an issue for vehicles anymore, as new cars tend to have very good active temperature management. More of an issue for things like phones that overheat easily.
Why, don't we just adopt water as energy source. Separate the hydrogen and burn the only by product is water, a closed system. Earth covered by 80% water. Unlimited supply simple
@@sebastiansandvik825 It becomes problematic when you're draining the battery to keep the battery warm enough to have a useful range. It gives off the same kind of conversational energy as "I used the stones to destroy the stones" to say "I'm depleting the battery to warm the battery" I would much prefer advancements to engine tech to let us go up from our current 57% highest thermal efficiency to like 65 or 70%, although we technically have reached almost 75% but the US Military has a firm grip on the exclusive supply contract for the only company that has managed that feat so far, though Mazda seems to be working hard to catch up. Liquid Piston has likely begun delivering the diesel-capable XTS-210 by now since last year it was announced that they were preparing to send the first one out for the Army to stress test in 2024. Its very cool, but sadly since the US Military has their firm grasp on the best of ICE tech, we're stuck in the lurch with big corpos shoving EVs down our throats with no regard for the blatant superiority of PHEVs.
You missed the opportunity here to write in the thumbnail "Charge is coming"
She charges extra for that
I know right I can feel the charge coming inside me
@@herobrine1847 Are you about to recharge your toilet?
Game charger.
I have to give you credit for that one.
Thing is, for all the naysaying over the years, lithium ion batteries have in fact improved significantly over the past 20 years. I remember when Nokia phones used to have 1000 to 1400 mAh stubby but thick Li-Ion batteries, but now we routinely see 4000 to 5000 mAh batteries in much slimmer (although bigger horizontally and vertically) phones. The two things that reverse the undeniable progress of batteries is much more power hungry workloads - phones these days do a LOT more than play Snake and take GSM quality calls, but people also use their phones for much MUCH longer periods of time. Nobody was glued to their phone for hours at a time in the 90s and early 00s.
Battery technology improvements are hyped way too much in the near term, but people are totally oblivious to how much better things have gotten over a 10 or 20 year time span.
Oh, I can assure you that I was glued to my phone for hours at a time in the late '90s - playing Snake! 😅
OMG, has it been 10-20 years already, I must hurry up, running out of time. Good luck to all.
@@jamesduncan578 "Time is an illusion. Lunchtime doubly so."
What is the actual volume of these modern batteries? The reality is if the batteries have more capacity today it is a fairly small improvement. I very much doubt anyone is squeezing a 5000 mAh battery into the same volume as previously occupied by a 1400 mAh one. I am of course open to seeing some evidence of this.
What has really happened is that the power consumption of these devices has improved, which is why every year you still get the same dismal 24 hours or so of battery life that smartphones have been getting for many years. If batteries were actually improving that life would be getting longer. On the other hand an old Nokia phone with an 1100 mAh battery could run for a week or more, because those things really did use very little power. That lifespan also has nothing to do with anyone being glued to their phone. Smartphones still have dismal battery life when used sparingly.
@@danieloberhofer9035 In fact one of my children still plays a game on one of our old phones. Can play for hours on the old battery still sitting in the phone and that phone will run for much longer than a modern phone that is mostly used to send or read the occasional text message during the day.
I'm in the "I believe it when I can buy it from a reputable vendor" camp.
Fun fact: I'm currently watching this video on my PC that is powered by a prismatic LFP battery, charged by nuclear fusion power (solar panel).
Mmm I just installed a new 3000w pure sine inverter on warranty replacement in my van that also has 1380w of fusion power inlets on the roof and 5000w/h 24v LiFe4 batteries :) Just tried to run my PC on the backup 1000w dirty sine inverter and it would not boot even if I have two 850A AGM batteries that it runs from in the van, I had to start the engine for the inverter to not die when the computer with RTX4090 and 8 core Intel xeon started. And the strange thing was when I measured it used only 7A from the 12v side at 200w power on the GPU (meaning 200% efficiency as that is only 100w... which is impossible).
I have before started the same computer with only a 170w inverter, all was fine until my RTX4090 accidentally was activated at full 450w, that instantly killed the small inverter.
Likewise, "I'm about ready to believe it when they start building factories" is a similarly reliable metric.
"I want one..." ~ Tony Stark
@@samothrace2106 The chinese are pretty good at faking things, including factories (to fool investors into giving them more money)
@@a64738 I'm sitting in my fusion (solar) powered trailer running off a 3,000 watt all in one inverter mppt charger with safe freezing safe lithium titanate batteries that will last 30 years or 30,000 cycles
In Canada electric power milk trucks achieved 25 MPH and delivered dairy products reliably.
This practice began in the 1950s & ended in the 60s. The batteries slid in on rollers and were changed as needed. The oil boom arguably overwhelmed any desire to continue.
We had electric milk floats in the UK too - I remember them as a child in the 70's and they were considered 'old' then. Now we have people thrashing noisey diesels at 4am in the morning, spoiling our sleep and our lungs.
The first autos were electric Edison vehicles that swapped out batteries for charging with a fresh charged set had the battery repair manual when I was younger. Mostly delivery vehicles delivering goods in cities
But consider the energy needed to produce that milk in an age where only a small percentage of the population are farmers. A single 200kw tractor being used for tillage, planting, or harvest of food for cows needs to operate for long days to do it's job in the short time frames available. 10 hours of delivering 200kw would require a 2,000kWh battery. That's twenty times as much battery capacity as a Tesla model S has. You should look up the price and weight of such a thing and also consider the need to charge many of them on a rural electric grid overnight.
@@phillipbatho3213 A 200kw tractor does NOT run at or near 200kw ,,, that is FULL load and nearly never happens in reality. Rural grid ran on a SMR ?
Electric fork lift trucks use the exact same battery technology and are swapped out in the same or similar way,they've also had regeneration recharging (from braking) for 40 years.Common working practices that are still used today.
Gartner is not an IT company. It is a consultancy.
How did they get it wrong?? Big difference
@@bartektrame8801 Gartner is a consultancy that is famous for making easy to interpret charts. The more famous one is what is called a Magic Quadrant. Where a hype cycle talks about where new technologies are on the adoption curve, the magic quadrant talks about the positioning of firms within a given market.
It consultancy
@@SeriesOfCZcamssGartner is not an IT consultancy. It is a management consulting firm, best known for its marketing analysis.
BIG difference. It's like saying a marketing firm for NASA knows how to send rockets into space (kind of like Space X).
I'm sorry but cars that run on fusion was invented before 2015. I watched this documentary where you could power a car on a banana and a beer can utilizing a Mr. Fusion device. It was called "back to the future 2" if you're interested in learning more about science
That was the end of BTTF 1. "I need fuel!!!"
@@robmacfarlane1657 And the start of 2 where the parallel universe replaced Jennifer with a different woman, but I digress. 2 is where you see the true power of Mr. Fusion
The correlation (and related irony) between the hype cycle and Dunning-Kruger curves made me smile.
Same, the parallel does make sense
Except that DK has been debunked. The entire effect is a result of comparing a variable to itself, just hidden in a more complex stat. You can generate the same effect with completely random noise; there's no proof of a trend about humans in there.
autocorrelation
@@oasntet Interesting, have not heard that. Found the article "The Dunning-Kruger Effect Isn't What You Think It Is" I'm gonna read it.
After you pointed out, i am wondering was the Gartner hype cycle inspired by this curve?!
Why isn't there a pit of ignorance hidden on the path to disillusionment, before the boat of productivity sails without delay?
I think you need to plot the integral of the function for that...
By lack of objectivity in the witness of the supposedly 'new emergent phenom' ... 'the discovery' drives irrational emotional excitation, fantasies about the future increase, hype increase, PR agents spread the inflated expectations ... then, the world begins to claim for faster outcomes from the hyped discovery ... the discoverers can not deliver ... the investors retire funding ... the discovery return to the lab ... competing in the underground with related 'discoveries' ... while seeking scarce funds to survive its development cycle ... meanwhile, the standard established procedures stay robust by the investors betting in secure investments ...
If the discoverers were Objective, they would not hype the discovery until it becomes fully and realistically implementable with the current paradigm that their discovery can improve and/or replace ... but Hyping brings Money ... then, How can they get rip of a PR strategy that can bring capital to their discovery ?? ... The system seems to be prompted to finance - in short terms - hyped statements around basic needs ... but at the same time, to retire funding once the discoveries doesn't deliver what they promised during the hyping phase ...
There is, but I wouldn't call it a "pit." The ignorance is part of the excitement.
The pit of ignorance forms when the product takes much longer to mature than people take to lose interest.
Edit: You're absolutely right. There is a pit of ignorance that's caused by the inverse of the hype: denigration. Sometimes that denigration just comes from the enthusiasts who try to hide their interest in the valuable technology, but often times it's also stoked up by typical human behavior.
Because the truth is far less exciting, than fiction....
I can't wait 5-10 years for those sodium-lithium batteries. Then I can be charged with a salted battery...
👉😎👉
It took me a minute! 😂
From the big book of bad dad jokes
And finally, the bat-mobile will be able to run on na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na- Sodium!
lol...good one!!
Two peanuts were walking through a park. One was a salted.
Great article. No spin, just straight up, concise, reporting on the lay of the land. That made it very easy to digest.
This tracks with my experiences. I remember when OLEDs were first announced and hyped, only for the excitement to die down. I kept pining for the tech to mature for a while after. A few years later small displays started coming out, and now large panels are becoming fairly affordable.
Sabine inspired me to make my own YT channel. Thank you! 💛
Very cool!
Bad move, you're going to get a letter about Finder's Fees now
Not sure this is actually a compliment... ;)
Awesome👍👍🇳🇴
Through Batteries we become slaves to convenience. Lol
I read the 1:57 fusion peak 1 in Scientific American in the school physics lab in 1962ish. I'm a matured 3-Peaker!
I rarely see such well-explained and informative videos. Thumbs up!
4:29 Small but important correction: "sodium ion batteries" not "sodium lithium batteries". Important because a big advantage of them over lithium ion batteries is that they don't require lithium. Instead, just sodium, which is cheap, easy to mine ethically, and will last us a long time before the Earth runs out of it.
This hype cycle theory was fascinating. Thank you.
As far as I know Sodium-Ion is currently the only new battery you can actually buy as a normal person
I didn't hear her mention LFP which are about half of the supply now and have a number of advantages over Lion
@@danell1s
And some compromises. So selection is somewhat application based.
I heard it was only for weirdos.
@@danell1s Almost nobody uses LFP. Don't know if it's really widely available.
All the devices I bought in the last few years have standard lithium polymer batteries.
About half the car batteries are LFP much more common in Chinese cars.
great video ! thanks
Tony Seba , famous economist and futurist , said that the problem with trying to create a new battery to replace lithium batteries is that it takes an average 9 years to go from development to retail use . and in 9 years lithium batteries come down in cost at an average of 16% per year and their energy density increases at an average of 4% a year . So whatever you develop today has to be better than lithium Batteries in 9 years time .
From a risk investment point of view . This is a very difficult goal for new battery technology to achieve and it is the main reason why new battery technologies dont get to retail use stage .
except you can buy a lithium solid state battery right now from yoshino that beats all those goals but price.
Since you have recently mentioned how you cannot stand if you are 5 pixels off center, I just wanted to mention that sometimes the stereo balance shift one side or the other. For example at 0:48 to 0:52. There are lots of places in older videos where this occurs. Mixing your videos to mono would solve this. I am not complaining, just informing :)
Sabine, in germany there is the geladen podcast anything about batteries and with the scientific background from the Polis Excellenzcluster.
We haven't seen any INCREDIBLE breakthroughs in batteries, but you have to admit. They're gotten incrementally better generation by generation. My phone still lasts one day, but it does so much more.
If my Nokia 3210 had the battery of my current phone, it would last a month for sure.
....
Playing with ChatGPT...
Using a 4000 mAh modern smartphone battery in a Nokia 3210, you could expect approximately 32.7 hours of talk time and 1890 hours (or about 78.75 days) of standby time.
Although when it comes to cars I would turn this around: if we still had the simple, light cars from the 1990s, today's batteries would already provide the reach people are waiting for.
your nokia 3210 did not have a 4000mAh battery because it did not need one not because they did not know how to make 4000mAh batteries.
@@Volkbrecht are you sure that the older cars will be able to carry weight of modern batteries? Li batteries are light but still not light enough (compared to petrol)
The problem with batteries on your phone is that the technology has barely improved, it's just that everything from chips, to RAM, memory, soldering and displays have become so much more efficient that we can squeeze bigger batteries in the chassis.
@@user-uf4rx5ih3v not to mention that smartphones are getting bigger and bigger because those batteries need space.
E.g. my iphone "mini" is larger than my Blackberry Q10. And it's one of the smallest phones available on the market.
This principle applies to public companies and share prices. Most of the money is made during the initial hype and if they can either replicate it or produce several events that produce more initial hype the people in-the-know can cash in at that stage. If the company survives through to the production cycle it’ll be a long and slow but steady growth company. Managers of money funds are well-aware of course.
😄 ''that's like looking for a Unicorn that also do your taxes''
she´s like a shining diamond sometimes😂
Can anybody invent this Unicorn please?
@@michanbg6385 Unicorn breed would become another future technology then.
"Unicorn doing you're tax returns"... Funny as... ! 🤣
Have you ever met an unicorn that doesn't do someone's tax return? I for sure haven't.
Well, they also have to be safe. You pack a high enough energy density into a small space and you have the potential for it to explode.
Gotta say, your delivery / commentary is as entertaining as it is informative. Great job
We so need new battery technology. My pack of four AA cells seems incapable of powering my house.
No matter what kind of battery technology will come, fact is, they are reality and they will shape our future in a way we will can not foresee. It is the convergence of many technologies, like EVs, or simply energy storages, but also batteries for coming autonomous robots etc... All that will boost the demand for batteries in unforeseeable dimension. Yes it is that big. The more important is that we are not dependant on Chinese batteries only.
You can’t change physics so if physics says no battery will fail.
@@jamesocker5235 ?
"sounds good, I hope it does" and "I'm sure you won't regret it" were a good kitchen cutter tv commercial moments for Sabine😊
Just to correct you the biggest technology now is Lithium Iron Phosphate (LIFePO4 or LFP) not Lithium Ion. For the first time in Europe LFP is now cheaper, cleaner & has a longer cycle life than lead acid which has been King in various formats for over a Century.
Safer too
Then it will get squashed in the U.S., never to be adopted except by government projects and elites with $2500 phones.
I've been watching battery technology for decades. I stopped reading about up-and-coming technologies because they almost never reach productivity. I'm currently experimenting with Sodium cells and I plan on building a 10-20kWh pack in the next year or so.
Watch your blood pressure 😂
Well, fusion has been "10 years away" for about 40 years now. My guess is, fusion is about 10 years away
@@penfold-55 There have been a couple interesting fusion ideas, but I mostly don't pay attention to those 'breakthroughs' either.
@@penfold-55 Correction: Fusion has been "10 years away" for more like 60 years. Over 50 years ago, I remember my high school physics teacher laughing about the "coming of fusion power." He was so right!!
@@davidheckman I don‘t know if fusion will work ever on earth for energy generation. The sun is working on an easy principle: pure mass. The fusion ignites self due to the high pressure. On earth you don‘t have the same environment. You have to keep the environment so the fusion can work somehow. So we are able to have a stable fusion for some minutes, but the materials are getting to hot. There is much wearing of the materials. The a big company is again has to service this power plant and has the control over the energy. Maybe I am wrong and it will work some day. But will it be good if the human can produce „unlimited“ thermal energy on earth? Which effect on the climate this heat source will have? Why not simply use the wireless receivers for our working fusion power plant? They are cheap to build and install.
Thank you for the video.
Sabine is one of my favorite youtubers. It's so rare to find a realist scientist nowadays.
she is way off on ssb's since you can get one from yoshino right now.
The number of technologies listed on the graph is staggering, it's comforting to see the industry making real efforts on this
Do you remember those old beer commercials featuring "the most interesting man in the world?" Dr. Hossenfelder is "the most interesting woman in the world!" I LOVE Dr. Hossenfelder's videos!!
Sabine now needs to make a video about the validity of the Hype cycle and the nature of its curve as validated using data....
She showed some graphs with squiggly lines on it
The biggest hurdle isn't being 'better than lipo', it is the fact that anything with more energy dense storage and delivery than lipo also tends to be highly explosive.
Because energy in small space is explosive...
i read this in thunderfoot's sarcastic tone lol, very fitting
Interesting analysis.
You have called Na batteries peak-hype.
But Geely uses them in cars right now.
* CATL is the largest battery manufacturer.
* Geely is the #3 manufacturer of EVs in China.
* Comparable with LFPs in energy density, but 25% lower cost.
Major players are both manufacturing and using the product.
CATL has demonstrated the ability to ramp quickly and supply many different manufacturers.
I would say this is in phase 4 based on your definitions.
Li-Ion batteries were invented in 1970, first produced 1991 and are quiet common today.
NiMH batteries were invented 1962, first produced 1982 and also still in use.
NiCD batteries were invented 1899, first produced 1910 and you can still buy them.
If I see predictions of short battery development times and constantly renewing energies, I only feel like smiling.
I want a Unicorn that can do taxes tooooo, so glad I'd put my coffee down! Very funny Sabine. TFS, GB :)
😂
All that hype! Battery price per kWh in dollars has only dropped from $1,220 (in 2010) to $132 (in 2021). Only a 89 percent drop in price per kWh... I think Sabine is saying people are just getting excited when we haven't really seen much change yet! It would only be the equivalent of gas dropping price from $4 per gallon of gas to 44 cents per gallon. P.S. And prices have continued to drop since 2021 … just the table I looked for reference ended on that date. Again these are not projected changes this is a gradual change that has already happened. Some years a whopping 20% drop some years only a 6% drop but for more than a decade the price has been dropping every year. AFAIK no sign of the trend slowing.
Why would they make a good battery when they are profiting from planned obsolecence?
The thing about battery tech is that it's actually delivering. From 2014 to 2024, lithium-ion battery prices have plummeted from $700 per kWh of storage capacity to below $100. That is in part because production dramatically grew in scale, and in part because former hype technologies trickled into the designs and production processes over time.
That includes the dramatic reduction of required rare earth minerals, like replacing cobalt with common materials and reducing the amount of lithium required.
While other hyped battery technologies have not yet overtaken lithium-based ones, they are closely following suit. If lithium supply ever becomes a significant problem due to costs/strategic supplier risks/environmental taxation, then we can shift to other chemistries without losing much progress.
Just in 2020, grid battery storage was practically 0. Now it is about to overtake the generation capacity of pumped hydro this year in the US (growing from 16 to 30 GW, compared to 23 GW of pumped hydro), and next year globally. And it is on a trajectory where it will install the total amount of existing pumped hydro capacity *every year* soon.
At the same time, the need for grid battery storage is actually decreasing because home battery storages are becoming ubiquitious as well. In ever more regions, solar panels plus home battery are becoming the default for new homes.
there's still a thing called planned obsolescence. nobody wants to sell things that don't need to be replaced constantly. even if a new tech makes it to the market, it's still not going to be something significantly better than what we already have.
only because of how money works and a flaw it copied from metal backed currency when 'we' decoupled in the 1960's.. without that there would be no planned obsolescence. Too bad that not even Modern Monetary Theory is aware of this yet afaik.
That is due to a technical fault in fiat currency that got copied from 'gold'.
This is why I don't ever watch videos about new battery technology. Except for yours of course :)
My feelings exactly
"Batteries are a mixed bag" Pun intended?
Your discussion of the Gartner Hype Cycle reminded me of the "bathtub curve". A new hot tech becomes the rage of the journals, then there is a rapid decline in published articles. The curve remains flat for some years, then starts rising again. Getting classified causes the decline & low, flat curve. Then when the tech is dropped as unworkable, or it succeeds so much that "they" want to start bragging about it, that's when you get resurgence in published articles. Some folks look for the onset of the bathtub curve as a mechanism for focussing one's time & attention.
In response to “We’re all supposed to drive electric”. I bought a second hand Tesla to reduce my oil dependency but I actually love it. It’s quiet, fast, doesn’t smell, vibrates less, and although charging takes longer, it is usually at a nice place instead of a smelly petrol station. I hope I never have to switch back to a combustion engine ever again.
1:29 lol It sounds like my “I hired another new employee” cycle. However, my cycle ends with a cataclysmic downturn into the last phase called “Sinking into a pit of perpetual gloom”
😅
Forget fusion. Battery and quantum computer development have 10 times more degrees of freedom !
...and where do you get the power to recharge the batteries from...!?!
@@manoo422 Bicycle power the primordial energy (you know, climate change is just Natural Bicycles)
And who knows what we might discover after we have these!😲🙄
I live in Maine and power rates are out of control. And I'm almost out of old tires to burn for heat.
@@manoo422we already have a fusion reactor emitting free energy 24/7
I’m an engineer working on battery projects for a utility, and I can tell you with certainty that no single battery chemistry on the horizon appears to be the ultimate solution to all problems utilities are tackling. Broadly, the major use cases of utilities are bulk grid stability, energy-time shifting, and backup power. Each of these use cases requires different parameters of efficiency, charge/discharge rates, energy capacity, and energy density. For example, a battery responding to grid voltage or frequency fluctuations requires very fast, high C rate response, while energy-time shifting operates on a daily schedule or market rates and has less extreme operation requirements than frequency response. Cost-benefit of different projects will land on different parameters needed, but at the end of the day Lithium-ion based chemistries are still the best option in most cases, and weight is a minor issue for stationary grid applications (concrete pads are strong). The biggest issue with Lithium is battery cost and cost for fire/deflagration protection, which are required despite that being rare event. My hope is for a high efficiency, high capacity, high energy density battery that doesn’t off-gas upon failure and so it can bypass some of the heavy fire department requirements that we’re seeing.
Have you tried sodium ion?
@@jurajvariny6034 Sodium-Ion supply is catching up to Lithium-Ion. It doesn’t perform better in all the categories I described above and but gets close. If the Lithium extraction industry can catch up to demand in the next few years and costs go down, then sodium-Ion will have a steep market barrier, but if lithium doesn’t catch up, then sodium could take more market. If there eventually is a healthy supply of many types of chemistries, then availability, lead times, and costs for battery projects will improve, so I hope to see cheap sodium and lithium batteries in the future.
6 years of University to squiggle a line and call it the "Hype Cycle". You can't make this crap up. This must have been a slow science day.
Condensed battery 🔋 seems interesting
Here's a question for you, Sabine: I've heard that electric cars aren't as good for the environment as the manufacturers would like us to believe because their carbon footprint is huge by the time they get out the factory door. And by the time they negate this footprint by running for a number of years, the battery has to be replaced and so the footprint becomes huge again. Is this actually true or is it all counter-hype from oil companies (or whoever else might gain from the demise of electric vehicles)?
Somewhere in the middle. The general consensus is that a battery vehicle will "break even" on environmental impact somewhere around 80,000 miles, though that depends greatly on the battery chemistry, and the source of power. For the most part, batteries are lasting a lot longer than expected. With the exception of early cars with bad thermal management (like the Nissan Leaf) you can reasonably expect the battery to last a quarter million miles or more. At which point, a new battery wouldn't be worth it. But I wouldn't put a new engine in a 20 year old car either.
Also, because of the heavy batteries, either the tires wear out much faster (i.e. have to be replaced more often) or much more heavy-duty tires (i.e. more expensive up front) need to be used. Either way, it is an added expense of battery powered vehicles that is rarely discussed.
@@davidheckman This is widely overhyped expense which is discussed all too often, really. So you get 35K instead of 50K out of a set of tires, and they cost a bit more. However, a Tesla still weighs significantly less than any full-size pickup or SUV that almost everybody complaining about this seems to own, how much does a set of tires for one of those cost, and how long do they last?
@@davidheckman on the other hand,pollution from brake pad manufacturing and use is much less.
Sabine herself has got a great video on this issue. Look for it among her videos list in the chanel.
It looks like solid state batteries will likely still use cobalt. Cobalt is a serious hazard in current Li-ion fires. It's not clear whether solid state batteries will present fire or toxin risks. Proponents of a technology will always ignore or downplay hazard risks and other downsides.
Nearly forgot: at the end of this July/beginning of August BYD and CATL are halving the prices for their batteries.
Polish company from Rzeszów "The Batteries" is already manufacturing solid state lithium-ion batteries(low rate production), with 2x energy density of standard lithium-ion batteries, and those batteries can recharge 10000 times, recharge time is also few times faster than standard lithium-ion batteries.
Very true, thank you for the tax paying🦄. In german we also have this mammal, "eierlegende Wollmilchsau", but biology didn´t gift us with such a pet. I´m afraid, physics won´t benefit us with a perfect battery with an energy density of fossil fuels either. Most people I talk to, have big illusions about the battery developement, the arguement often goes: "No one could imagine some decades before that happened, that we reach the moon, but anyway we came to there, so why shouldn´t we get to such batteries soon." Most people don´t understand, how science works.
Some intelligent people ( who aren't very scientific, it has to be said) cannot understand how it was possible to land men on the moon, and get them back...so - it didn't happen...
@@chrisheath2637 😉
@@chrisheath2637😂
The only time I felt that an announcement, hype, and actual release that lived up to the prommise was the development of SSD drives.
I have also been following new battery tech keenly for four years until recently when i realised they are just not coming out. I had stopped watching/reading new batter tech breakthru news. Thanks this persepective. I will now keep in mind the hype cycle when reading these things.
I just want the power grid in my area to be reliable, and the power company has no incentive to improve things. Unfortunately, there's no competition, and legislation has made even solar work in their favor, so maybe batteries will be the way! 😅
My recommendation is that you finally do a segment that couples renewable (solar, wind, geo) with stationary land-based batteries. If our governments/corrupt rich people finally work towards the good of the people we could solve the energy crisis with technology that is available today. Rich people like nuclear because the cost of entry gives them monopolies. Solar + local batteries lower the cost of entry and create distributed fault tolerant power networks. However, that is more difficult to monetize and monopolize. Treating mobile batteries and stationary as one subject is silly.
doc sabine forgot we also need easy recyclability. 🎉
Isn't that part of environmentally friendly?
I've been enjoying the lithium rechargeable AA batteries lately. Quite a bit of an upfront cost but now I can reliably use them in modern electronics again. Having the benefits of lithium ion with the ease of replacing of AA batteries is awesome.
I am here before the bots lol.
These last couple of years it seems there has been fewer and fewer "battery breakthroughs", that and other technology "gamechangers". I think it's not so much because of hype cycles, but rather the fear of getting the Thunderfoot treatment.
Check CATL Shenxing and Shenxing Plus batteries, and Zeekr ‘Golden battery’. 1000k range and energy density of 205Wh/kg for the Shenxing Plus. These are not just prototypes either, but being manufactured and installed, in the case of the Shenxing and Golden batteries, and since the Shenxing Plus was only announced late April 2024, expected to be in passenger cars by the end of the year.
@@janetrussell3288 Neat. I think I'll wait a bit, at least until all the tech buzz has died down, and some more actual reviews come out, to be too excited.
Thanks! I was deeply in the disillusion trough regarding the deluge of "transformative" developments in battery tech. Hopefully we will see production soon. We need it! 🙂
"my journey through New Years Resolutions" Very funny. I LOLed.
Okay, now I watched this till the end. You didn't go over the proven battery technologies that are already being scaled up that are already moving into production and hitting the market soon.. recent leaps in proven technology that's ready to scale up has increased dramatically. Already on the market as of this year, You didn't talk about lithium iron phosphate batteries catl is making or byd's blade batteries. Both of these are already going into vehicles and are substantially better than previous batteries. Wrong title video based on what's actually in the video. Your videos should have been titled understanding hype curves of new technology products. You didn't give any details about the new batteries that are proven and moving into production
The video title is fully appropriate. Your attempt to be overly pedantic and highlight topics irrelevant to the topic of her video, however, is not appropriate.
Sabine: "The hype cycle is not just a word"
Me: No, it's two
I have subscribed to a lot of sites, but one of those that I actually watch routinely is Sabine. There is always something interesting, presented in balance. And, some day I probably will sign up for Brilliant because it looks great. But, I'm old and I already have a bunch of subscriptions that I use only partially. Anyway, thanks Sabine!!
Yoshino has solid-state batteries on the market (Available on Amazon) right now. Caveat: some have said it is not a true solid-state battery rather it is a semi-solid state battery. I don't know what the correct answer is but even if it is semi-solid state it is still progress. Trying to find out more now.
There are tests on YT on these batteries. Seems a good deal on the high end end packs, though the low end packs aren't there yet.
Still in early adopter phase but at least it's a real product and not vaporware.
I understand the biggest problem with raising the energy (and power?) density is SAFETY. We promise super dense batteries, then realize that a fully charged battery is an explosive.
A half full gas tank is an explosive, what’s your point?
true: airlines are prohibiting power banks in checked baggage; no items with batteries or loose cells in checked baggage.
@@janami-dharmam airlines impose the 100 Wh limit on battery size in electronics iirc
@@user-vo9yz8lq2m well the question is what happens in a car crash, for instance. If the battery explodes in a dangerous enough fashion then we can't use it.
@@joshuascholar3220 "A recent study by US insurer, AutoinsuranceEZ found that hybrid cars had the worst fire record, while EVs were the least likely type of car to catch fire. Hybrid cars had 3474.5 fires per 100,000 sales; petrol cars had 1,529.9 fires per 100,000 sales and EVs had just 25.1 fires per 100,000 sales."
women have to be 10 times better than men, but that is easy. THANK YOU !
Spectacular new energy storage in batteries? I'll believe it when I see it.
I kind of chuckled on your first response, because I knew what was coming and that you were going to be eating your own words after hearing the climax. When you start out thinking, "man this is meh at best" and then by the end of the song you are like "hell yeah, this is some good stuff!," that is how you know you are listening to a great band. I did the same thing with Eulogy by Tool the first time when I was a teenager. Of course my taste in music was undeveloped at the time and I just thought a song had to be "hard" in order to be good music and they come in with all these "click and dink" noises and I was like wtf is this crap. Then they ripped with the guitars and I was like "holy sh!t, did that just happen?" Goosebumps.
What's interesting is the high percentage of people who are convinced that we need some kind of near-miraculous battery breakthrough to make electric vehicles viable. Total BS and part of the massive disinformation that I call the FUDGates attendant to electric vehicles. We have 6 year old vehicles, which we haven't really babied at all with relentless supercharging and suboptimal storing of the cars in a high State of charge in the battery when we first got the vehicle. Despite all this, we regard them as the best cars we ever owned or driven, and can't imagine going back to stinky fossil fuel vehicles. They are great trip vehicles, and it's amazing how many people we talk to are astonished to hear that most of the negatives about the transition to electric vehicles are mostly disinformation.
I 100% agree when it comes to commuter cars, but as a car enthusiast who takes his car to the race track every month, EVs won't work since they barely will last 2hrs under heavy racing conditions, where as in ICE will keep going all day.
You need a house witha drive to be able to easily charge at home. Dense Citys will not home lots of electric cars well. Also a big one is insurance companies charging huge premiums. They are really for middle class and above for now
Money corrupts the discussion. Oil and gas companies like the current monopoly because the cost of entry is high to produce oil or gas, versus electric which can even be charged from your home solar panel. We need to callout the disinformation as you did over and over again.
that is not practical in real life... you have to make electricity with coal or gas oil in a third world country and distribute in 1st world countries ... in India it has begun
Could you explain what you mean by a "trip vehicles?"
I assume we just have a different definition. When I think of a trip vehicle I'm thinking of driving 500 miles in the western US. This means I have to stop in the middle of the drive to charge and the charge has to be sufficiently complete to make it to the next charge station or my destination, which takes a significant amount of time compared to fueling a hybrid or ICE.
If you are not in the financial market space right now, you are making a huge mistake. I understand that it could be due to ignorance, but if you want to make your money work for you... prevent inflation
Thanks for continuing updates I'd rather trade the crypto market as it's more profitable. I make a good amount of money per week even though I barely trade myself.
A lot of people still make massive profit from the crypto market, all you really need is a relevant information and some ‹professional advice. ‹it's totally inappropriate for investors to hang on while suffering from dip during significant
You trade also?, I
No I don't trade on my own anymore, I always required help and assistance
From my personal financial advisor
..
The requirements for batteries depend on the application. A car battery, for example, must have as low weight to capacity as possible and output 25-50kW. But a battery for storing solar or wind power has no restriction on weight and only needs to be as cheap as possible. A household battery, for example, would be fine if it could be placed in or near a small-medium size house, store around 100kWh and output around 10-15kW (although more is better), as long as it is cheap (
"Like looking for a Unicorn that can also do your taxes" - I love this channel, Way to go Sabine, please don't stop informing and entertaining us.
Google 'battery storage capacity' and you see that in many countries it doubles every year or every two years. Part is new technology, part is scaling. Battery farms are becoming huge.
Dude that's likely not really true...... Maybe it doubled one year or something but also may I say, when did the doubling start? 2 years ago?
@@deathorb To be clear I don't mean effectiveness but installed capacity, that is why I say new tech+scaling
I wonder how many of Sabine's subscribers live in 3D printed houses, drive cars with airless tyres and have used a flying taxi in the last year? If we really want people to move en-masse to EV's then we need sodium batteries where the charging either comes from induction plates in the road, or extremely fast charging so that you don't need a crazy amount of chargers to service all vehicles or even fast replaceable batteries that the driver can physically swap out. I know about the NIO robot battery swap technology and that with Sodium batteries would be great. Why Sodium I hear you ask.....cheap, plentiful, not geo-politically sensitive as any country could produce sodium batteries so no state controlled cartels, no new mining or deforestation to get sodium and most importantly sodium batteries won't spontaneously combust or go from zero to inescapable blowtorch in seconds.
If however you firmly believe that all the weird weather now is directly attributable to CO2 and only Humans are responsible and you want to fix the problem........then we should already be trying to scrub CO2 out of the atmosphere at scale and scaling up eFuel production to replace petrol consumption. Yes, scrubbing CO2 will be very expensive.....how expensive is it to scrap all the ICE cars and replace them with EV's?.......the fact that green lobby's don't want to do scrubbing tells me that either CO2 isn't the real issue or CO2 is the issue but the green lobby doesn't want to address the issue if it doesn't result in everybody losing their ICE cars. Only about half of the worlds ICE vehicles can be realistically taken off the road as there are many places like Africa, South America, a big chunk of Asia and Australasia where the economics and logistics of distances involved will not be suitable for supporting any current EV technology. I wish Just Stop Oil all the luck in the World protesting with human roadblocks in Nigeria and China and Columbia etc.
Does the fact that the cost of replacing ICE vehicles would be borne by owners (i.e. the public) factor into the green lobby's choice to pursue scrubbing? At first glance it seems industry would be expected to pay for scrubbing, and would probably have to be forced into it by law.
We're not going to be switching to electric and if the weather was an indicator of climate change... then it proves there is no climate change. There haven't been many crazy weather events in a looong time.
EV's are done they don't work in places where it's cold half a year. They're a fire hazard that have to be parked and somehow charged 50 feet away from any home. Also cars fot people who hate cars is a terrible business model.
@@daveh7720 The Governments are only too happy if we have to finance their issue of keeping us safe, my point is that effectively forcing ICE off the roads is financially difficult for all low income earners because you won't be able to get junker EV's in the future as you're either taking a risk on the state of the battery in an old EV or you will struggle to get insurance. Imagine being a hard-up family who commits to a bank loan to buy an old EV and you spend more money putting on new tyres and fixing other bits and then the car tells you there's a battery fault and it will be sub-economic to fix.....that family has lost their money period. If you buy an ICE car at the moment there's far more to go on to decide whether you are going to get your money's worth from buying some old car and it's generally cheaper to keep it on the road if it does break down. Of course the Governments want the car industry to replace all ICE cars because the Government will receive a load more tax as the cost of motoring becomes more expensive because the initial car cost is higher. As a bonus the Gov get to tell the greens what a great job the Gov has done by getting rid of ICE cars. The motor manufacturers are likely to lose money either way, currently for most manufacturers the ICE vehicle sales make profit and the EV sales don't. Only companies like Tesla who have never made ICE vehicles are likely to win.
If CO2 is really "the problem" and if the CO2 is really man made then we need to be scrubbing regardless of ditching ICE vehicles but there isn't a business model for scrubbing whilst there's an obvious mug for changing all cars. Which country is going to start using EV's in their military? To the green people who think replacing all ICE vehicles with EV will be the great middle finger to the oil industry, the military will still need oil, as will shipping, farming, aviation, trains (imagine electrifying all the train tracks in Africa or across Australia etc). Getting rid of ICE will end up a big middle finger to economics.
I've thought about the hype cycle for years. I've watched things like, virtual reality or 3d content hit peak hype cycle over and over and over--shoot, they even produced and sold 3d _capable_ television sets for awhile! Sometimes things never get to general acceptance because it turns out people don't want them because they make people nauseous. Everyone wants small powerful cheap batteries, though.
On Wikipedia, under ‘Solid State Batteries’, it says, ‘See, Next Year.’
😂😂
What about the Yoshino solid state battery. They're out and can be ordered right now. How did Sabine miss it?
I won‘t drive an EV as I don‘t even drive a conventional car now and don’t plan to buy any car in the future 😂
Best decision ever, biking is best!
I world have to lose 2h of my everyday life if i switched from a car to a bicycle/ public transport and i live in vienna....
@@faustinpippin9208 Yes, I understand that it´s not possible for everyone🙂
Poor people's life
It IS all hype until it comes to market. There have been announcements of revolutionary battery technology and other tech for decades which fizzled out.
We have solid state batteries already shipping in consumer tech. So I think the assessment was even a bit overly conservative there, looks like mass production ramp is already happening with some vendors.
This is a pretty good overview and I especially liked the plot showing the expected time to market over expected relevance. It is fairly consistent with what is being guesstimated among us automotive engineers.
Something really worth pointing out is things like dry coating. It sounds boring and the bettery you get in the end is no better than the old one. But the battery factory becomes smaller and will require a lot less electricity and heat. Which is a pretty big thing for the price of those cells and for the old EV issue of its emission luggage it starts with compared to traditional cars.
Another one is sodium as active medium. Those chemistries are a lot less dependant on imports. But since they have unfavourable properties compared to lithium ion batteries we are going to see these in stationary storages and electronics first.
Yeah, I pretty much had one of those hype feelings a few years ago with those battery innovation promises ... nowadays its "when I stumble upon one in the store I may utter a tiny huzzah and buy that damn thing, but until then get lost". Maybe my tech affinity is a walking dead now with old age, but I still love my eSmart ^^
To some degree it seems like if you look for the patern to match your theory hard enough then you’ll create one to fit the theory. The general concept of hype, dillillusionment then productivity being a regualr patern for technology seems to make some sense but you could probably choose data points to map to a variety of graphs. The graphs will seemingly work as evidence to shift the idea from opinion to a more robust theory.
If there was a more regular pattern to the “hype cycle” where you could look at the hype around a specific technology and take various data points to predict the trough of dissilusionment and productivity in a remotely practical way, then it would be much more useful. Some technology has a lot of hype then ends in dissilusionment with no discernible productivity (there could be other breakthroughs that result in the research taking a different direction).
Some technology starts with dissulionment from the public either because of misscumunication in how its reported or due to it being of a counterintuitive technical nature. Some dissulionment is more broadly felt while some is more divisive.
Some people tend to reject a technology from the start, whether it’s because they genuinely understand the problems of the research being done, their desire to seem knowledgable often leads them to reject things out of hand, it doesnt fit with their world view or something in between. If the research continues to be reported on then the number of people who get caught up in the hype, who sit on the fence or who will reject it outright, will change. rather than just mapping public opinion on one line it might be more useful if you could measure the range of opinions.
EVs had and continue to have a lot of people who reject everything about the technology and others who continually accept anything that promotes it while there is a larger group in the middle whose optinions shift one way or the other. Those who reject EV’s outright would tend to express negative views about all battery tech reports and as EV’s have become popular those people have just shifted some of their naritives while remaining negaitive. “Solar freaking roads” was a good example that showed how many people blindly accepted anything that was solar and worked towards a supposed environmental positive. It’s the percentage of people in the middle whose opinions shift that represent the curve on the hype cycle.
I clicked on this because I just watched a video about potential battery sources. Sabine introduced me to the hype cycle and broke down the criteria for the perfect battery very well.
Based on this and my other video; I think that a perfect battery may not be possible; but Lithium-tungsten batteries look quite attractive.
Hype (often involving battery tech) is exactly why I unsubbed and told YT to never recommend the Just Have a Think channel. Its all hype. After watching for a couple years I realized nohing ever came of any technology I saw there. Best channel ever if you want to waste time on useless over hyped tech. Sabine, on the other hand, does a great job of covering things that are or may actually become relevant. So no surprise to hear why she doesn't cover battery tech. Smart lady.
What you don't understand, is that that's how all technology has been for centuries.
Humans have always started a lot of new things, but unfortunately the vast majority of those new things have always failed. But you have to try to get the ones that work.
The only thing different today, is that thanks to the internet we now hear about the things that are going to fail constantly, until they fail.
Thanks to people only having about three channels back in the day, you heard about something maybe once, and then if it didn't work out you never heard of it again. Same for the things that did work out, you may be heard of it one time near the beginning of r&d, and then you didn't hear anything about it again until it was turned into a product that could be sold.
All the channel have a sink is doing, it's telling you about all that research, but neither him, you, North sabina, can know which ones are going to make it.
Tbh, a lot of the tech they're working on that fails, you still kind of cool to hear about.
@@Robert-do3cd Um, duh on the blatantly obvious things you seem to think other people don't understand. No you're not super smart and the only person to know stuff.
I watch a lot of channels, Just Have a Think is the only channel which seems to peddle 100% useless, going nowhere technology. Maybe he's terrible at choosing what to cover. Me he has no qualifications in the fields he covers so is just regurgitating info. Whatever the case, the channel has zero value as a result unless the viewer actually likes learning useless info.