Mohamed El-Erian on the market: ‘We have lost our most important anchor’
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- čas přidán 16. 02. 2022
- #Stock #Market #MohamedElErian
Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens College, Cambridge University, and Allianz Chief Economic Advisor, joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss surging inflation, markets, and how the economy will react to the Fed's decision.
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This is one guy that as an economist I listen to. He is generally spot on & explains it very well. Smart guy that nails it.
Completely agree - he is straight forward and does not sugarcoat the facts because facts are what they are.
Lol he’s been wrong on everything the past 4 years. So much for being wise and careful
Agree, he is one of the few I listen…..
Says too much without telling much.
Could be, except he is beholden to the establishment mostly Keynesian clowns
M2. Is the problem. Not COVID, not supply chain issues, nor Russia vs Ukraine. It's very simple. Low interest rates: easy money. QT: exchanging corporate bonds and MBS for money; increasing the money supply. Government policies: A transfer of money from future to present. All of these caused inflation to rise by increasing the M2 money supply. Pre-covid era we had an inverted yield curve and a recession was most likely coming. Now, we can only speculate about this speculative situation.
Yes It's very simple. M2 money supply is increased a lot while productivity stays the same and inflation always follows to rebalance about 16 months later. Anybody who thinks you can increase the amount of money and it's still worth as much per dollar either didn't believe in maths or believes in magic or both.
Professor El-Erian...my man😊...dropping knowledge for the masses.
"Unfortunately the window is closing" Guest speaker made the whole economic crisis picture clear and precise. The tough question is there a turning point for all the fall out? I surely doubt based on world economic experts are saying.
So what the investor has had is an artificially or government supported stock market. Socialism? Not capitalism. The Fed's official mandate is not to enrich the stock market and its participants. So since 2009 the stock market has been a taxpayer supported institution. Not an institution of capitalism.
Ding ding ding 💖
Yes
The Banks as well can operate on credit.
Since Paulson and Bernanke persuaded
them to keep distributing Credit Cards,
you will not see a "Run on the Banks".
Deflect the Depression with an attractive
image of debt.
The image of Capitalism,
has been replaced by an illusion
of Debt as a Goal, not a problem.....
Sell that Debt and charge interest....
when it is for the rich oligarchy it is not socialism
You figured out how this new form of “capitalism” (top down style, with handouts to the rich) works.
Since we bailed out the banks via TARP in 2008, we’ve put our foot on the accelerator on this policy full force and never turned back.
The pandemic has been used as an excuse to ramp the printing to unheard of levels, 10x where we were at in 08’.
Thank goodness for Professor El-Erian and his analysis!
They never include groceries gasoline and utilities in their inflation stats.
Or stocks. People are supposed to invest for their retirement and stocks are supposed to pay dividends, not just be sold at a higher price to s bigger fool. Stocks have never been so expensive based on price to income.
Professor El-Erian is the man
Don't worry joe bidan said yesterday and I quote..." im gonna fix the inflation problem by the end of 2017".....I have a good feeling about this guy 🤔
Mohamed should be Fed Chairman, why not?
I think he’s a British citizen
Higher inflation expectations isn't the cause of higher inflation. People react to what they experience in real time. The fed causes higher prices as the dollars they print lose value
UNfortunately this is true , I have lived in a country with 70% inflation a month, nobody wants to be late to the inflation party . I had a factory and if inflation was X , I made sure I was 5% higher, crazy but real.
🏆
The amount of "house poor" people is increasing. This will lead to decreased spending and economic stagnation
That’s actually a really good point I hear no others making
naaah, you have too many greedy investors ( domestic and foreign) who are waiting for layoffs & foreclosures to grab what’s not theirs, Customers are still blind to what’s going on, until their retirement folios drop 10%, then they’ll panic
Gold stocks are booming.
How long can cheat inflation in because of supply chain issue, semiconductor shortage, container shortage. Price of food, energy, even lumber is up. There is no shortage of wood
The Corporate Earnings Anchor gains strength in inflationary times. Optimists like me see normal market earnings now driving the S&P to 5000 to 5200 at year end 2022, assuming no war. What is driving the downside stuff right now is the market shorties. The USA Equity Market remains the world's TINA, that is why it is immune to this stuff...over time of course.
Good luck on that.
Go look up a chart of the S&P 500 since 2008. Then, look up a chase of M1 or M2. Then look up real earnings growth since 2008.
If you still believe this is sustainable after all that- good luck to you sir- your more of an optimist than I could be and I envy you for that.
My thesis/ S&P may go to 5200- but your purchasing power at that level will be less than is is today at 4300.
Good on Yahoo finance, ignore the real response about the markets losing their paper fed anchor for a corporate earnings anchor. Very important move, little to no news about it.
Be vewy, vewy afwaid!
I don't understand why we keep talking about a "possible FED mistake".
Being far behind to the extent that it doesn't have tools for the given context ... Bein far behind in any given context. Being "stuck between a rock and a hard place" ...
Have the mistakes not been made already?
Exactly, the real mistake was made when they Fed fixed a few hundred billion problem with several trillion creating a bubble. Bubbles dint have soft landings they burst.
The US has shale ready to flow into the markets.
7.5 is a pipe dream. 12 to 15 is more of a realty non lie Tell the hard truth
Hard to say, being the CPI data is manipulated to be lower than actual real data. same goes for GDP.
Wages have NOT been going up, for fourty years. FED funnels wealth to the 1%. Bankers do not go to jail.
Spending power will decline as income goes to pay inflated debt.
There never should have been an 'anchor' of massive Fed liquidity in the first place, which has turned out to be an anchor that is sinking the economy. It has completely distorted the market, led to massive government debt, and lowered GDP growth for over a decade now. Artificial low interest rates has been bad economic policy which may soon become catastrophic economic policy. The Fed needs to be reigned in by the political branches of government, and its parameters of action seriously curtailed, especially in regard to manipulation of interest rates.
These videos are starting to give me inflation in pants…
The window to get this right has closed.
Wrong.... the 1970s inflation was not the result of an oil price shock. Inflation had actually doubled in the previous 4 quarters when oil prices started their initial rise.
It's a VEAWY liquid environment!
"15% drop from the recent Jan. 3 record high would take the S&P toward 4100, levels first reached last April"
Mr El-Erian has made the fuss all the time. Can he show his investment track record?
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We need 100 point increase right now.
Stop QE today
You know they have the Plung protection team hard at work or the market would be down 10 000 they decide lol. Regan 1981 and a million other teams to.
I’m no economist but I bet if our energy prices were way lower. We wouldn’t be in half the mess we are right now. You can’t get rid of oil
End the FED.Jail the banksters.
Excuse my ignorance. Can someone tell me what the economist means by "QT" ? Not familiar with this acronym.
Quantitative tightening.
ONE THING that people seem to overlook during tumultuous times like these, is a legitimate investment that has proven itself for centuries now, and is one of the first assets seized when armies invade countries, is ORIGINAL (one of a kind) ART. Over time it has returned far higher yields than any fiat currency, and gold/silver etc.
Absolutely correct, hard assets are key during inflationary periods as insolvent governments restore their balance sheets via the printing press
This guy looks like a much older version of my buddy named Eli
I'm not sure the markets can cope with inflation, FED mistakes and a war at the same time?
I believe that inflation is a result of the over consumed natural resources and for this reason cost pressures are here to stay, it is a new game with unpredictable climate , limited or oversupply of water and changing global temperatures and conditions.
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Doesn’t matter just let it crash and pick up the pieces to start all over again
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Printing money for reckless spending is the root cause?
Yup and Fed policy.
Ring energy REI on the NYSE
Well, yes and yes. The markets are at their peak for now. I suppose we will see if Putin or mainly his very close friends have many short positions in the markets? and is this all part of his game? Very sad if so.
Ron Lokk,, great point!! agree!!
I’ve been all cash since September. I can’t wait to pick up stocks once they fall back to earth
But you're missing out on your dividend payouts and getting eaten away by inflation 🤔
@@pteranodon6612 I’m waiting to buy the dip once stocks are slaughtered. Similar to how I played in March 2020 after selling in January.
El Erian is wrong. Benoit Mandelbrot, the Mathematician behind Chaos Theory and Fractal Math says otherwise. We have lost our main SUPPRESSION of VOLATILITY.
@Afghanistan Bananastand There's always money in the banana stand... until it burns down...
The Fed prints money to suppress volatility... until it starts to burn (inflation). Then it can't. Then volatility spikes. Benoit Mandelbrot proved mathematically that volatility across time never changes, it can merely be suppressed temporarily until all of the suppressed volatility is released at one time. Suppressed volatility leads to hypervolatility.
Got gold?
Our world has 3 fundamental practices that are problematic.
If we dont understand the root causes of a problem we will address the symptoms or the actors, not the causes.
The 1st is that large private and Central banks have obtained the Exclusive franchise to create ALL new Currency as Debt, with interest attached.
An increasing population needs an increasing currency, but it is all created as a debt bearing interest.
This indebts the whole world, every person, every government, in totally unpayable debts, enslaving us all to bankers through personal debt or ever increasing excessive taxation, surcharges, permits, licences, registrations, regulations, fees, rates, duties, fines, levies, adinfinitum, of which an increasing volume goes straight to the debt creators, who created it for free. (At zero cost to themselves.)
2nd. Virtually no limitation plus fractional banking allows banks to create massive new Currency, blowing massive bubbles (housing/stocks) which devalues everyone's savings and work by raising all prices.
The fix ?
Stop all banks and financial institutions loaning out more than they have on deposit. Return legal currency creation to national treasury departments with a zero Inflation policy.
This will not create inflation like some bankers/economists would like to have you think. It is not WHO creates currency that drives the constant devaluation of your money & work, it is THE VOLUME per population and productivity.
The banks increased the base currency supply by over 45 % since March 2020. This is further multiplied by fractional banking. You can't spend it off planet, and we've had no increase in population or productivity. How can it not devalue our savings, wages and retirement funds by around 50% as it enters the economy ?
3rd. Fiat currency whether paper or digital has no intrinsic value, thus it cannot be used as a long term store of value, particularly in an ever expanding fiat system.
The fix ?
Return to constitutional Silver, Gold, Copper & Nickle currency, designated by weight not cents/dollars. These will find their own local value. These can't be printed to oblivion, have intrinsic value, and are a safeguard against selfish human nature. Continue to keep the manufacture of Gold & Silver rounds by private mints & foundries to help keep the government mints honest as to premiums.
Correct these 3 Principles and >80 % of a nation's problems would disappear. Do not allow your masters the Debt slave creator's to tell you it can't be done. It is easily done. Beware. The WEF wants you totally enslaved with digital currency.
Otherwise, prepare for destruction.
Seek to understand these 3 practices. Check on if I have stated them accurately for yourself. Then Print this out, and share, Tweet, post. Only we can save ourselves !
These 3 paragraphs can change the world and get you and your family out of endless peasantry and serfdom.
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If the Fed uses the uncertainty over Ukraine as an excuse not to act, there could be a blowoff rally. LGBFJBJT!
SELLL EVERYTHING
Baby step interest rate hikes won't help anything
God it took them another war in Ukraine and Russia to wake up to supply chain disruptions..It's the first time I am hearing risk management in US casino market...😂
Hyperbole and delusional war in Ukraine and Russia just like stupid Obama kept pushing and pumping it for 8years surprise surprise here comes stupid stupid Biden doing the same thing.
Points?: Market anchor gone with inflation because now the fed reserve taking away injections of liquidity. Ukraine conflict, would effect supplies of commodities from Russia and Ukraine effecting inflation more. Oil $100+ (what if no Ukraine conflict? Might be a boost, would oil go down drastically? Or reopening economy will soak up oil supply?) Only .25% hike to begin, and doubts 7 raises because economy will break down. Market nit used to being without massive influx of $ from fed and stimulus. Inflation happening now and future inflation may be caused by inflation anticipation. Fed has been late which makes earnings more uncertain and a safe landing less likely.
what in the world is he talking about? nothing has changed. the druken sailor feds have not reduced quantitative easing or done a rate increase yet. only hot air!
We're doomed
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It's all a cover for money printing.
America is insolvent
Revelation 18
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This guy is wrong on just about everything
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learning:
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@Dyan Terry that’s short term gambling not investing
el arian has it backwards
the fed is not buying stocks with qe
also 10 rates will drop w QT
Then I suppose Randy you were loaded up with Puts!
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