I’ve tried to persuade many gamblers to try matched betting, value betting, arbing etc but the vast majority just dismiss it. In hindsight I’m glad because matched betters, bookies, traders etc need punters/gamblers to survive sadly.
Y, I've had to come to terms with that. It taught me a few things, but most notably that even if you tell people what to do and why, it's not enough for them to do it. Human nature is curious.
Yet another great video. I am a Betfair trader. I listen to William hill radio which every day will have 2 guests providing selections for every race. Some of those guests are pro punters and they do actually talk a lot about value (and will even have a go WH prices!!). You often here "A is the likeliest winner, but B offers the best value" Or "there is no value in this market as the price on X has gone". Value is where it is at.
Very true, I respect the guests a lot more when they openly tell the truth on WH radio regarding prices. As pro punter's they know they need value to be profitable long term and same as you say they will highlight that the price is too short now even though they fancy the horse.
I would be very careful with how the general punting public wilfully employ the term "value" whenever it suits them. The truth is there is no such thing as true value bet at general bookie prices when you are betting win-only. True value is beating the exchange price, ie an arb, and we all know what happens when you bet on arbs.
100% agreed with you. Most of the bettors play the wrong game. They try to guess the future and the result of the event. When they should select value bets. The only way to have profit in the long run is to select value bets again and again...
Professional Tipsters are few and far between and if you find a good one you can LEARN a lot from them. Pundits and Presenters haven't got a fucking clue, I'd ignore everything they say. There is no way on your strategy results graph that you didn't change the fundamentals in the back ground to get into profit. Value in betting is hugely important. This is why/when the Exchange come into themselves. If a horse is 2.5 at the off you can ask for 4 0 In Running and if it gets matched and wins that's real value. Why your average punter doesn't use the exchange is beyond me. Good video.
Great video, I used to do really well at Point to Point meetings, and horse racing in general (before the exchanges) by simply backing the horses who were too big a price...... I used try to explain this to people, that successful betting is NOT about picking winners, it just went over their heads and they just continued backing the "form" horses at any price, which of course was great news for me!!! Sadly betting at Points is a pale shadow of its former self, still happy memories..
As stupid as it sounds it took me a long time to get my head around this concept. I kept hearing people talk about value and thought what the hell are you talking about? surely only the outcome is important. How naive I was.
Just getting the "best price you can" is not enough. You need to 1st figure out the "true odds" , once you know this figure (not guess) , then you can go ahead and back or lay above/below the "true odds".
James calculating true odds is impossible when there are 1000s if not millions of variables as to why something wins or loses If Manchester City are odds on to win and they lose are draw what are the true odds?if they were to play the team they lost or drew to again they would still be odds on despite not winning previously
Indeed, it's a big misconception about sports betting; considering sides before prices. Hey Peter do you include bookmaker margin into your model probabilities whenever you find value or discrepancy?
Most professional writers working for racing channels etc are very clear about price and whether the horse is a ‘value’ proposition. People have been writing about ‘value’ and publishing books on the subject for decades.
Is there any books where I can read up on finding price as there must be some sort off guide line , it makes sense but also may take balls to bet on a good losing team or late on in a game , maybe .
To become a football tipster you should treat it like a niche. Either pick one league or one country or even one team. Set yourself a target for at least 5 to 10 points profit per month from level stakes. Hardly rocket science if you put the work in. It's all about balance, control and discipline with sticking to single bets.
jonescrusher1 of course laying it all depends how much you wanna make you add to the stake example he gave 14 tips 13 came in so I could of made 500 each 20 dollars each 50 dollars each all depends on what you wanna make on the stake
Wow 2 out of 20 !! Unfortunately you need to look on a bigger sample of bets more like 5000 or 10 000 samples to get sound long term profitable strategy
To say you never hear this spoken about , I'm surprised. On the Racing Channel the pundits often say " i think it will win " , but , add " i wouldn't bet on it at that price " etc . Also tipsters such as Hugh Taylor base their whole service on " value ". So , to summarise , it is talked about a lot.
getting a good tip has so little if any to do with the prices you are able to get in the market. a tip is a tip, a tip is not saying bet only with this bookie, or otherwise my bet wont be good LOL no 2 are you trying to deliver the idea that betting is based on percantages and nothing is 100%? you made me smile, sir. everyone knows that. also im pretty sure 90% or more of people watching this already know what VALUE is if i get a tip from a punter who says team A will win, i will never ever thinking of terms ''hes saying that 100% this team will win'' if it would be like that ( a ''fixed'' match ) everyone knowing would bet his house obviously
'getting a good tip has so little if any to do with the prices you are able to get in the market. a tip is a tip, a tip is not saying bet only with this bookie, or otherwise my bet wont be good LOL' You couldn't be more wrong!!!
To find it in horse racing you’ve gotta know horses better than your mother and be able to make your own tissue before bookies are priced up then get on but you’ll be shut down in a week . The value is long gone by race time . I love to bet with on course bookies but it’s so disheartening looking at there boards and seeing your selection half the price of the night before . It takes nothing to move a price the night before
betangeltv done a trial with bet angel brilliant site got use to it in demo mode found myself making very good profits ore off with the stakes I will be using when I’m set up only question is Peter was I getting matched easier in practice mode or is it literally the same as real money without the money if you know what I mean . Cheers 🍻
Hi Peter, This question isn't related to this video, however, due to work commitments I have been exploring doing some trades 'anti-post' with relatively small amounts. My question is, will Betfair remove the funds from my account at the time of the trade, which by the way is what I expect to be so, or do they only remove the funds just prior to the race, thereby only drawing on extra funds if absolutely necessary? Sorry if this is Kindergarten stuff to you, but a newbie here, and I was taught the only stupid question is the one you don't ask. Thanks Mike
There is a difference between a tipster who does it for a living and then somebody employed to be a pundit on tv having to give a tip on either every race or the spur of the moment. I know which one I'd trust, the one who's done the research and is selective
I prefer to lay horses and I usually lay in running to get lower odds and this is working so far as I usually lay at lower odds than the bookmakers. I guess as a layer I'm getting value.
Peter I find your videos very helpful but I do wish you would get to the point. You tend to tell us the same thing three, four or five times before getting to the crux of the matter.
I don't script them, they just come off the top of my head so I realise I may revise the key point or phrase more than once. I just don't want to be scripted and unnatural.
Let's not just override them ...I started my football betting 2 months ago...the 1st 3 weeks I was losing..then I download 13 tipster apps I started to compare they analyzes and bet only wen they agreed then I was having ZAR300 now I have more than ZAR10k in 5 weeks
Do you believe its possible to create a profitable sports prediction model for soccer? I'm talking about outright betting not trading. There is this idea that with all the data out there that if someone puts it all together correctly you can beat the book. Do you think that's even possible now considering how efficient the markets are?
I agree with what you are saying Peter, but it's unfair to group every single tipster into that category. Although I will admit most tipsters will fall into that category that you described, so it's a hard industry to gain trust in. I will add in one thing that I believe you didn't mention, apologies if you did mention it but the liquidity is also a big part of being a good tipster. There's no point in giving a tip when the available liquidity is only say $1,000. Let's say you email that to 100 people, the liquidity will be gone before 10 of those subscribers will be able to place a bet. Also important that the tipster finds out his clients staking sizes so he can cap the clients list to avoid available liquidity issues. As you mentioned, this is boring and not attractive for punters. For me, that's fine. I don't want those types of subscribers. Some of us are good guys that do give information about rated prices and expected Profit on Turnover and look after our subscribers to make a profit. But unfortunately, I think we are well and truly outnumbered.
I think that's half the problem to be honest, it's the same in the trading community. I can offer decent advice from years of trading experience but that's undermined if people just copy it and make out they have actually done something with it. The reality is few advice givers have ever actually done it themselves. I know it's tricky to spot, but I see it week in and week out.
I recently started to use a service who's selections are all chosen from statistical models and data, the subscriber list is capped to ensure people can get the price and the price and staking amounts are clearly listed to ensure a sustainable long-term profit can be made if the service user is disciplined. I also like to see results from people as far back as they go and then I decide whether they perform well enough for my liking. As per someone else's comment here some are so useless they make reliable consistent lay tips 🙃
There are websites like Tipstr but its a bit of a trick. Just because somebody looks like a good tipster recently, it is likely a fluke. They could be the best for the last 3 months and the worst for the next 3 months.
Gary Carlyle I don't believe you can ' fluke ' 1,000 bets and be profitable. You can fluke 10 or even 50 times but once you start having large numbers of bets and you're stil in profit then you have en edge. So look for proven tipsters with a long term strategy
There is a glut of accumulator tipsters on facebook who are of course just affiliate marketeers , I cant believe the amount of people who opt in and place a bet with the bookmaker they advise, of course the marketeers make money regardless of the results, most people are very stupid.
People seem to want a short cut to success and I guess that's why they fall for it. Even if you try to warn them, they will still think there is a reason why it's different.
When they quote their average monthly profits it’s misleading, like when they say £650 average monthly profit, they spend £25 per bet not every bet wins so they are losing money and throughout the month they are spending roughly £600 so even if they do make £600 per month it’s only the money they’ve already spent, no actual profit
Find a statistical model for the sport which tells you how often a result has occurred in the past, convert that percentage into odds, then see what odds you can get and if the second number is bigger than your first number then bet it
Van Dieu value means nothing if a horse is 15/1 but real odds should be 10/1 and the horse does not win the odds are irrelevant Value only matters if the horse wins Enables price has been very short many times but I still made profit as I was confident in it winning
I’ve tried to persuade many gamblers to try matched betting, value betting, arbing etc but the vast majority just dismiss it. In hindsight I’m glad because matched betters, bookies, traders etc need punters/gamblers to survive sadly.
Y, I've had to come to terms with that. It taught me a few things, but most notably that even if you tell people what to do and why, it's not enough for them to do it. Human nature is curious.
Yet another great video. I am a Betfair trader. I listen to William hill radio which every day will have 2 guests providing selections for every race. Some of those guests are pro punters and they do actually talk a lot about value (and will even have a go WH prices!!). You often here "A is the likeliest winner, but B offers the best value" Or "there is no value in this market as the price on X has gone". Value is where it is at.
Very true, I respect the guests a lot more when they openly tell the truth on WH radio regarding prices. As pro punter's they know they need value to be profitable long term and same as you say they will highlight that the price is too short now even though they fancy the horse.
I would be very careful with how the general punting public wilfully employ the term "value" whenever it suits them. The truth is there is no such thing as true value bet at general bookie prices when you are betting win-only. True value is beating the exchange price, ie an arb, and we all know what happens when you bet on arbs.
100% agreed with you. Most of the bettors play the wrong game. They try to guess the future and the result of the event. When they should select value bets. The only way to have profit in the long run is to select value bets again and again...
Professional Tipsters are few and far between and if you find a good one you can LEARN a lot from them. Pundits and Presenters haven't got a fucking clue, I'd ignore everything they say. There is no way on your strategy results graph that you didn't change the fundamentals in the back ground to get into profit. Value in betting is hugely important. This is why/when the Exchange come into themselves. If a horse is 2.5 at the off you can ask for 4 0 In Running and if it gets matched and wins that's real value. Why your average punter doesn't use the exchange is beyond me. Good video.
Good video Peter thanks, to be fair to the pundits on racing uk/sky sports racing they do say quite often I like this horse but price is far to short
Most of the tipsters are poor punters but good persuader.
Can't disagree with that.
Great video, I used to do really well at Point to Point meetings, and horse racing in general (before the exchanges) by simply backing the horses who were too big a price...... I used try to explain this to people, that successful betting is NOT about picking winners, it just went over their heads and they just continued backing the "form" horses at any price, which of course was great news for me!!!
Sadly betting at Points is a pale shadow of its former self, still happy memories..
Great Matt Chapman impression at the end 😂
As stupid as it sounds it took me a long time to get my head around this concept. I kept hearing people talk about value and thought what the hell are you talking about? surely only the outcome is important. How naive I was.
Alex H trying to tell people that I think A is gonna win but B is better value so that's what my money is backing always confuses people.
So true what your saying its call about value long term,people should grasp that
Yes, exactly. People should focus on what the price should be. Not whether it will win or not.
Just getting the "best price you can" is not enough. You need to 1st figure out the "true odds" , once you know this figure (not guess) , then you can go ahead and back or lay above/below the "true odds".
James calculating true odds is impossible when there are 1000s if not millions of variables as to why something wins or loses
If Manchester City are odds on to win and they lose are draw what are the true odds?if they were to play the team they lost or drew to again they would still be odds on despite not winning previously
Indeed, it's a big misconception about sports betting; considering sides before prices. Hey Peter do you include bookmaker margin into your model probabilities whenever you find value or discrepancy?
Most professional writers working for racing channels etc are very clear about price and whether the horse is a ‘value’ proposition. People have been writing about ‘value’ and publishing books on the subject for decades.
Is there any books where I can read up on finding price as there must be some sort off guide line , it makes sense but also may take balls to bet on a good losing team or late on in a game , maybe .
To become a football tipster you should treat it like a niche. Either pick one league or one country or even one team. Set yourself a target for at least 5 to 10 points profit per month from level stakes. Hardly rocket science if you put the work in. It's all about balance, control and discipline with sticking to single bets.
True you can’t trust anyone but a good tipster has records how often they hit I had a guy hit from 14 he gave me 13 lay wins
But was he giving you value picks?
jonescrusher1 of course laying it all depends how much you wanna make you add to the stake example he gave 14 tips 13 came in so I could of made 500 each 20 dollars each 50 dollars each all depends on what you wanna make on the stake
PRO HORSE PUNTER what site is it where you get the tips? Is it monthly pay?
''I think it has a fair chance''. = The bookmaker price is fair. (It isn't but I have a media career and I need their goodwill)
Lol i had a nhl tipper once he was shocking lost like 2 outta 20 i eventully used him.to put my lay bets on he made me a lot lol
Exactly what happened to me 👍
Wow 2 out of 20 !! Unfortunately you need to look on a bigger sample of bets more like 5000 or 10 000 samples to get sound long term profitable strategy
He lost 2 out of 20 - so he won 18 out of 20 ?
To say you never hear this spoken about , I'm surprised.
On the Racing Channel the pundits often say " i think it will win " , but , add " i wouldn't bet on it at that price " etc . Also tipsters such as Hugh Taylor base their whole service on " value ". So , to summarise , it is talked about a lot.
Not enough and it needs to be more explicit.
I assume that was a a football strategy, am i right? May i ask, how many bets took it tu turn profitable? Thanks
getting a good tip has so little if any to do with the prices you are able to get in the market. a tip is a tip, a tip is not saying bet only with this bookie, or otherwise my bet wont be good LOL
no 2 are you trying to deliver the idea that betting is based on percantages and nothing is 100%? you made me smile, sir. everyone knows that. also im pretty sure 90% or more of people watching this already know what VALUE is
if i get a tip from a punter who says team A will win, i will never ever thinking of terms ''hes saying that 100% this team will win'' if it would be like that ( a ''fixed'' match ) everyone knowing would bet his house obviously
'getting a good tip has so little if any to do with the prices you are able to get in the market. a tip is a tip, a tip is not saying bet only with this bookie, or otherwise my bet wont be good LOL'
You couldn't be more wrong!!!
To find it in horse racing you’ve gotta know horses better than your mother and be able to make your own tissue before bookies are priced up then get on but you’ll be shut down in a week . The value is long gone by race time . I love to bet with on course bookies but it’s so disheartening looking at there boards and seeing your selection half the price of the night before . It takes nothing to move a price the night before
Try adapting your betting style to trading and you will probably profit.
betangeltv done a trial with bet angel brilliant site got use to it in demo mode found myself making very good profits ore off with the stakes I will be using when I’m set up only question is Peter was I getting matched easier in practice mode or is it literally the same as real money without the money if you know what I mean . Cheers 🍻
Hi Peter, This question isn't related to this video, however, due to work commitments I have been exploring doing some trades 'anti-post' with relatively small amounts. My question is, will Betfair remove the funds from my account at the time of the trade, which by the way is what I expect to be so, or do they only remove the funds just prior to the race, thereby only drawing on extra funds if absolutely necessary? Sorry if this is Kindergarten stuff to you, but a newbie here, and I was taught the only stupid question is the one you don't ask. Thanks Mike
There is a difference between a tipster who does it for a living and then somebody employed to be a pundit on tv having to give a tip on either every race or the spur of the moment. I know which one I'd trust, the one who's done the research and is selective
Y, there is too much emphasis on encouraging people to bet, rather than offer decent advice.
I prefer to lay horses and I usually lay in running to get lower odds and this is working so far as I usually lay at lower odds than the bookmakers. I guess as a layer I'm getting value.
You would only get value if you are laying at a lower price that would be appopiate at that moment. Be aware of that.
What about if a tipster says place your bet at the Betfair SP? Are they still putting a % chance on that tip?
Peter I find your videos very helpful but I do wish you would get to the point. You tend to tell us the same thing three, four or five times before getting to the crux of the matter.
I don't script them, they just come off the top of my head so I realise I may revise the key point or phrase more than once. I just don't want to be scripted and unnatural.
Let's not just override them ...I started my football betting 2 months ago...the 1st 3 weeks I was losing..then I download 13 tipster apps I started to compare they analyzes and bet only wen they agreed then I was having ZAR300 now I have more than ZAR10k in 5 weeks
and this is why only 1% of gamblers make a long term profit, and im guess those (im not one) have trouble not getting there acounts closed
Do you believe its possible to create a profitable sports prediction model for soccer? I'm talking about outright betting not trading. There is this idea that with all the data out there that if someone puts it all together correctly you can beat the book. Do you think that's even possible now considering how efficient the markets are?
I agree with what you are saying Peter, but it's unfair to group every single tipster into that category. Although I will admit most tipsters will fall into that category that you described, so it's a hard industry to gain trust in. I will add in one thing that I believe you didn't mention, apologies if you did mention it but the liquidity is also a big part of being a good tipster. There's no point in giving a tip when the available liquidity is only say $1,000. Let's say you email that to 100 people, the liquidity will be gone before 10 of those subscribers will be able to place a bet. Also important that the tipster finds out his clients staking sizes so he can cap the clients list to avoid available liquidity issues. As you mentioned, this is boring and not attractive for punters. For me, that's fine. I don't want those types of subscribers. Some of us are good guys that do give information about rated prices and expected Profit on Turnover and look after our subscribers to make a profit. But unfortunately, I think we are well and truly outnumbered.
I think that's half the problem to be honest, it's the same in the trading community. I can offer decent advice from years of trading experience but that's undermined if people just copy it and make out they have actually done something with it. The reality is few advice givers have ever actually done it themselves. I know it's tricky to spot, but I see it week in and week out.
I recently started to use a service who's selections are all chosen from statistical models and data, the subscriber list is capped to ensure people can get the price and the price and staking amounts are clearly listed to ensure a sustainable long-term profit can be made if the service user is disciplined. I also like to see results from people as far back as they go and then I decide whether they perform well enough for my liking. As per someone else's comment here some are so useless they make reliable consistent lay tips 🙃
@@SS-vz9iv Could you share the name of this service you mentioned?
Tipsters are good for the market don’t you realise 3/4 of the money in the market dead you need it
That's actually one of the better comments I've seen recently and so very true.
There are websites like Tipstr but its a bit of a trick. Just because somebody looks like a good tipster recently, it is likely a fluke. They could be the best for the last 3 months and the worst for the next 3 months.
Gary Carlyle I don't believe you can ' fluke ' 1,000 bets and be profitable. You can fluke 10 or even 50 times but once you start having large numbers of bets and you're stil in profit then you have en edge. So look for proven tipsters with a long term strategy
@@megaskyburst you can also have 1000 bets in positive and be in negative thereafter
There is a glut of accumulator tipsters on facebook who are of course just affiliate marketeers , I cant believe the amount of people who opt in and place a bet with the bookmaker they advise, of course the marketeers make money regardless of the results, most people are very stupid.
People seem to want a short cut to success and I guess that's why they fall for it. Even if you try to warn them, they will still think there is a reason why it's different.
When they quote their average monthly profits it’s misleading, like when they say £650 average monthly profit, they spend £25 per bet not every bet wins so they are losing money and throughout the month they are spending roughly £600 so even if they do make £600 per month it’s only the money they’ve already spent, no actual profit
you talked over 5 ins about "what's missing" before you even mentioned it. +EV, you could have said that right away.
Sometimes it requires a bit of explaning
@@betangeltv Perhaps I'm just too used to hearing it.
Siiiuuuuu
Anyone here to discuss practical even money bets strategy ?
Seems not
How do you know if your betting the right price ?
Find a statistical model for the sport which tells you how often a result has occurred in the past, convert that percentage into odds, then see what odds you can get and if the second number is bigger than your first number then bet it
I always think they're trying to get loads backing a horse they like so the price goes in their favour
Mugs bet on winners. Sharps bet on value.
Can't disagree with that.
Van Dieu value means nothing if a horse is 15/1 but real odds should be 10/1 and the horse does not win the odds are irrelevant
Value only matters if the horse wins
Enables price has been very short many times but I still made profit as I was confident in it winning
betting is always just luck no guaranteed sure option
There is no guarenteed bet that exists, but betting isn't just luck.