Peter Zeihan Blames the Jones Act for Why He Doesn't Care about the Key Bridge | Better Call Sal!
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- čas přidán 13. 04. 2024
- Better Call Sal | Peter Zeihan on the Fall of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore
What's Going on With Shipping?
April 14, 2024
In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - a maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner - reacts to Peter Zeihan's video on why the Jones Act makes the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse in Baltimore less significant.
#dali #baltimorebridge #Jonesact #baltimore #shipping #bridgecollapse #supplychain #containerships #containerships
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Why I Don't Care About the Fallen Bridge in Baltimore || Peter Zeihan
• Why I Don't Care About...
IMF Portwatch Baltimore
portwatch.imf.org/pages/3ee54...
Transportation Statistics Annual 2023
rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/72943
To see why the US maritime sector has declined, check out this video:
czcams.com/video/kJn0bCWx_9g/video.html
Speed, mobility and volume are also major factors to trucking.
A truck doing 70 mph over hours will beat a barge doing 5 knots up a river.
As long as there is a suitable road a truck can and will go down it.
There isnt a need to build a port for a factory that only manufactures a few truck loads a day.
SIU's newspaper had an article a few years ago On an attempt to have foreign flags get invloved with US port to US port And, the editor was saying that they need to stop it Also, Chicago to New Orleans by truck Much of that should go by rail When you take into account the number of truck drivers needed ,etc At least put the trucks on rail cars Great vid as always
SAL my all things shipping friend 😊
You make such a strong argument against what he says 😊 you being a Fire Captain you have seen how Fire Engine have changed to more an English style Engine with roll up doors, and engines that look more like English FF rigs with fully covered pump panels. I only bring up FD because you probably get what I am saying 😊 when you said YES you agreed that the "Jones Act" needs some updates, just like most of the Maritime rules, and everything related. But everyone must never forget Maritime comes ( First) in line on any travel or right of way, before Rail or roads. On all mass transit rail service in my area, the new tracks they built, they usually choose to build the Rail over or under a roadway. And with Bridges they build the NEW bridge "Higher" than the New super size Container ships. That will be the good thing about this rebuild of Baltimore bridge. It will be Higher, and have better Safety barriers than the bridge that collapsed. It will and I'm saying probably just on Fact of what happened after Alaska's big OIL spill. TUG escort under at leastt inner harbor of Baltimore.
*ENGINEER HERE and I TOTALLY AGREE with your assessment of Peter as I have the same issue when he talks about engineering topics.* He's great on geopolitics but lousy on engineering.
Here's 2 examples.
1/2 to most of the time he talks about things like the Russian Oil wells freezing and being out of action for decades because the American experts have left Russia IS SIMPLY WRONG because he assumes that over the last 20-30 years NONE of the Russian engineers or maintenance people learned anything from operating those wells. *Sorry but its an absurd idea that the American experts never trained the local Russians on how to look after their own oil wells and/or that the Russians never learned anything off the Americans.*
Second, Peter often mentions that Wind and Solar need 100% (or close to) of their lifetime costs up front compared to things like a nuclear power station or coal fired power station because those stations have fuel costs for the lifetime of their operation. Its actually true that when you look at LIFETIME costs Wind and Solar have most of those costs upfront because they have few costs after construction. BUT engineers and investors don't consider lifetime costs as much as they do *CAPITAL COSTS* which is the money you have to spend getting approvals, getting things designed, getting things constructed and then commissioned so that whatever it is your building can start earning money.
In terms of CAPITAL COSTS wind & solar now annihilate nuclear and handily beat coal and other fossil fuels. Just go and look at the costs per Megawatt installed (and that word "installed" is really important). Where there is a leveling of that space are in the grid modifications to link the Wind & Solar to the power grid.
I think Peter's problem in these areas is that he does NOT consult with good subject matter experts (SMEs) like the does in other areas. This is why he has certain figures that are way off. Its also likely his economics is skewed by the incredibly poor way economic is taught and that's a subject I have been researching for sometime because it has had huge effects on engineering but that's a much longer discussion.
By the way - I'm Australian and love the channel. I was like many introduced to you by Ward Carroll another of the rare breed of CZcamsrs who endeavor to educate people.
@@user-lk2cj2qs1dYou do realize every railroad container requires two tractors and chassis.
I'm a big railroad fan.
I ran more miles pulling rr containers in and out of Chicago than I ever did running 48 states!
That being said, no bitching about the truck traffic in and around the ports and railheads!
I used to watch Peter's videos pretty frequently, but I found that whenever his discussion topics strayed into areas that I happened to have a particularly high amount of expertise in, I realized that his claims were frequently inaccurate, embellished, or just complete non-sense. Seeing other people in other areas of expertise reacting to his videos in the same way that I did in my areas of expertise, such as Sal here in this video, just confirms for me that Peter doesn't really know what he is talking about most of the time. He seems to be the kind of person that knows very little about a whole lot, but he can string just enough of the right words together in the right order to get a lot of people to listen to him. He knows just enough to be dangerous, as they say.
A dilettante mistaking himself for a deity.
I too used to be a Zeihan fan until I realized he was mostly wrong on any topic I had knowledge about. I wish Sal would realize that Zeihan is just as wrong about things other than shipping. The worst is Zeighan continuously claiming that the US is pulling back from the world oceans when from the Red Sea to the South China Sea all we are doing is building up our forces. We are turning the Philippines into a fortress!
Yup
Same as most media.
I came to make this exact comment. He says things with such confidence but they are in reality outrageous. I'm not sure why people continue giving him any air time. It's becoming clear he has no expertise on anything.
If we don't have an award for the service that Sal provides on CZcams, then we need to create it.
Let’s call it the “I didn’t even need to call sal” award
CZcams weighs him in, as we say.
Probably enjoys talking about his chosen subject.
Oh ffs please. Sal is not the GOAT Get a life!
Loads of pseudo experts on CZcams. Unless you know their field it all sounds great. BUT, remember, it’s all for views etc.
As the retired Secretary of the Public Utilities Comm. of Ohio for 26 years I can tell you that Peter's ideas on canal,river and lake shipping were spot on 200 years ago. In today's economy consumers expect fast delivery.The railroads did away with most canal barge traffic by the 1850's. Motor carriers then cut into the RR industry.Inter-modal changed this back a great deal. Ohio is also a major location for oil and gas pipelines crossing the Southern part of the state. You are exactly right about the effect that their construction had on RR.Keep up the great work!
id argument that the joneses/USA 🇺🇸 doesn't do enough ( im not for the mess of ownership and protection/flag and passport's/employment, id add ownership and flags needs to be the same or flag+all-passports need's to be the same or no entry into USA controlled waterways/sea! or risk seaure or sinking 😉, that's how it kinda worked pre-globalisation* and or stupidity and yes foreign ally ships could still operate/delivery's in and outbound it just tackle's the loophole's better that-way and is more in line with Monroe doctrine and lesser to drag USA into expodissnary-war or sneaking contrabands/invasions-in ) as is aka im not for deregulation or ragen's president policy's
yes iv see Canadien 🇨🇦 or Mexican railroad's/equipments and or there worker's mixed-combination's in the USA 🇺🇸 as same for ( my family is farmers/ranchers and truckers or mechanics, im in plant manufacturing and automotive-paying-hobbies/racing-career services/sectors ) truckers, same things as sall/video is complaining about foreign-rando's in water-shipments and employment figures etc
at 19 year's old id be on peters side and or Adam's free-hand's-off capitalism but historically that ha showed not to work out well as it's to extreme just as Leninism/USSR was in practice
Baltimore is so behind of the times. CSX can't run double stack intermodel because they can't get a tunnel to fit them through how can they even compete..
Do you often overnight order 200 tons of grain or iron ore to your door? I don't think he was talking about using barges for amazon deliveries....🤣
@@firefly9838 Every industry including grain, bulk minerals and coal fired power plants want "just in time" delivery because of taxes, cost of inventory and storage related issues. If these industries could get them overnight they would. Love your smiley face.Do You resort to that when You don't have cogent responses?
@@garyvigorito3289 they'll gladly pay more in taxes if they save enough in transport💅
Man, Thanks for respectfully putting that guy in his place. clearly he has no idea what he’s talking about. so grateful to have someone like you that is knowledgeable about the Maritime industry.
He didnt put Zeihan in his place. Some of what Sal stated is valid, but some were straw arguments. I dont take everything Zeihan says at face value, nor do I take everything Sal says as gospel. They are both human and thus subject to error.
I would love to see a debate between them.
Peter Zeihan is just the Neil deGrasse Tyson of geopolitics. He loves to hear himself talk, even at the expense of truth.
That is an excellent analogy!
😂 Neil is a joke, this is making me reevaluate Peter
Good comparisome. I never understood why in the heck Degrasse agreed with nutters that Pluto was not a planet, right before the NASA explorer space did a fly by and proved that is was...a planet.
The worst thing to happen to NDG is his explosive popularity leading to people asking him about stuff way out of his wheelhouse, and that’s a bad combination for someone that loves to hear their self he’s talk. I miss when he just did what he does best.
I never understand why 'people' (sheeple?) need some hero or superstar, putting someone on a pedestal - in science, politics, art. Most (if not all) of the time it's 'the emperors' clothes'. Blind adoration, no independent thinking, simply cult-members. Not just dumb, but plain scary.
I'm the retired president of one of the largest (at the time) US inland waterway barge transportation companies. I agree with everything you said. Barges are best for bulk cargo (coal, grain, ore, chemicals, etc.), not containers or manufactured goods.
Would a Deluth-Minneapolis canal be worth building?
@@hg2. NO! Not even close. Not even worth wasting 5 minutes thinking about it!
@@ronw76
?
There was a plan for one "back in the day".
Where would be the best place to spend "that kind of money"?
@@hg2. NO. The US government and Labor Unions destroyed the steel industry in the US. Currently there is only one steel company left in the US. Duluth is hurting because northern Minnesota and Michigan have significant supplies of iron ore but we have made it economically impossible to sell that ore. The US MUST reduce regulations to restore our prominent place in the world.
@@hg2. Nowhere! The US Inland Waterway System was built on the natural, low-cost waterways. Spending money on pipe dreams would be a total waste. The development of the Tennessee-Tombigbee and Red River waterway systems are definitive proof of that pipe dream. The biggest cause of inflation is excess government spending, and the only three things that the US government can do to fix inflation are: 1) stop spending money; 2) stop spending money; and 3) reduce, eliminate and destroy existing REGULATIONS that impede competitive businesses. The above sentence applies to every facet of the US economy.
We definitely need more subject-matter experts doing Peter Zeihan reactions. This was well done
I don't agree. Sal failed to debunk main point of Peters claim. None of the trucks or trains are actually built in US. So it is with cargo vessels. But there is no "trucker's act" to prevent immigrant russian or chinese truck drivers driving a chinese-built engined 18wheelers all over the US.
@@NGC1433 You don't agree that the reaction to Peter's video was well done or you don't agree that we need more subject-matter experts challenging Peter Zeihan's claims?
@@NGC1433 Shut up Zohan
Labor is a major cost in moving freight. This cost is magnified when you use “small” ships that Peter Zeihan wants to use. Moving a few semi truckloads in a small ship slowly over the water requires paying crew much more than paying truck drivers over the same period of time. And last mile delivery is automatic with trucks but not with small ships.
One of the things I like about your videos, Sal, is that you support your assertions with data, facts, and accurate geographical and historical knowledge.
Yes yes yes
Sal and Tim the skipper are a team
Zeihan on the other hand just spouts off with the confidence of Baghdad Bob.
Thank you for putting this full-of-himself arrogant man in his place as politely as you could manage under the circumstances. You are a gem.
Thank you Sal for shooting straight and holding Peter to account, I find that he speaks directly to the audience he's acquired and as a result people trust his numbers and information, more of the Silo affect, thank you for sharing your time and work Sal, have a great day, peace
A silo on an island in the middle of an ocean on a lonely planet many light years away from the nearest solar system and eons away from the nearest galaxy. And the universe is vast. "Too infinity and beyond." Buzz Lightyear
Thanks Sal. The need for MULTIPLE SOURCES of information before YOU make up your mind on any subject is clearly demonstrated. Very well done. Thank you again.
I commented on Peter's video sharing Sal's perspective from a previous video and got some interesting replies. US steel production peaked in the 1970's, while the Jones act was passed 1920. Most of the iron ore used to make steel was mined in the US and shipped domestically via the Great Lakes. This system was working great for over 50 years after the Jones Act was passed!
US was the major global producer of steel until the early 60's
so there was plenty of margin in the business to pay higher
shipping costs and wages in their industry,
then globably competition came along,
and changed the margin,
and now what once worked, no longer works.
@@theboringchannel2027 Yes. Globalization and international competition killed the US steel industry. Saying the Jones act is the single biggest reason for the rust belt just doesn't make sense
@@theboringchannel2027 Global competition. How is a PR Chinese steel manufacturing firm globally competitive if it is a state subsidised enterprise? To be fair, the South Koreans and Japanese also subsidise their ship industries and are therefore production leaders in that domain.
Capitalism wanting more profit is what moved the steel industry from Pittsburgh to Gary, Ind. to Japan to Korea and finally China. Not shipping, labor costs or technology. India is probably next up in the batting order. As fast as it went overseas, it was sold back to us for even more profit. Now the midwest has Dollar General for supermarkets and the bridges are rusting out everywhere, but the "economy" is great. Right?
@@FierBarca1899 Yes, you are correct, those countries subsidize those industries, but that does not change the fact of the pricing those countries offer,
and thus represent competition to the US industry.
Zeihan is the modern MegaTrends guy. Frequently in error, never in doubt
Guy is a joke, talks complete nonsense. CIA asset.
Exactly.
Well said.
Not fair
Dont know where this dude buys his koolaid, but he should ask if they sell copium as well.
As someone who lives on the Chesapeake I can tell he's either never been or spent significant time in Maryland/the Chesapeake Bay when he talks about it being barely used or underutilized. If there aren't watercraft on the bay, it's for a darn good reason. At all other times? Everything from pleasure craft to container ships freaking everywhere. Also as you noted, just because we have the coastline doesn't mean that ships can come and offload just anywhere. There was some pie in the sky talk about taking some of the shipping in Salisbury, but a functional shipping port would need to be built, dredging done, etc. and by the time you got it set up Baltimore would probably be back in business. That said, there would be some good in setting up alternatives in case of an accident like this, but then we'd also have to either use them or pay to maintain them or else they wouldn't be any good even if they were there.
Dude is talking out of his ass for most of this because he has his head shoved up there.
Outstanding critique of Peter Zeihan's view on this. Peter has many good points on many subjects but you have highlighted one more example of the detailed expert view providing context and specific data to combat generalist misleading or false assertions.
Thanks for sharing and we appreciate your efforts.
It's amazing how confident Peter is about knowing everything on every topic in every part of the world.
And how wrong he is on almost everything. Mediocre mind.
its almost unbelievable eh😂x
I'm a "Jack of all trades, Master of none" Peter is a "Jack of all trades, Master of the World"
Peter is a policy pusher he is a peek behind the curtains of what the decision makers in the USA really believe. They are breathing their own exhaust fumes at the moment.
There should be a picture of him on the duninger kruger article.. (Or how ever thst is spelled)
The problem is that Peter is the smartest person Peter knows. He quotes himself far too often, (especially when it's based on error). I think a) you are far too gracious towards him Sal and b) 'Better Call Saul' WAS based on you - wasn't it?
I would love to see an episode shaming Canada's approach to not building in Canada!
A true legend in his own mind!
STOP IT 🚩Peter Zeihan is a national treasure 🤏 He is an expert in everything under the sun! 🤪
He's only just above jeffostroff in his inaccuracy master of nothing and joker of everything including his lack of electrical knowledge in this video showing a house breaker panel not even close to and reliable industrial panel.
czcams.com/video/ldiIWqqxZBU/video.htmlsi=yfodLMOiuMLLyIgq
He needs a review in basic geography if he thinks that Baltimore is at the mouth of Chesapeake bay 😂
@@Jon_Flys_RC Or perhaps Peter needs a review in basic anatomy. 🤣🤣🤣
True. Sal and I has a disagreement about the terminology "Rules of Engagement vs. Rules use of Force." Yet, Sal was nice enough to reply kindly. Mahalo Sal.
As a Navy guy, he gets it wrong, my oil and gas friends say he gets it wrong, my demographer friends say he gets it wrong. What has he gotten right?
Making money by talking sh*t?
He got his videography pretty good... that's about it.
Let me add, on land warfare he gets it wrong. His take on Russia is super weird. He thinks land warfare is conducted like the Mongols with corridors of advancement.
The only thing he's somewhat knowledgeable about is demographic trends but he assumes the trend of falling birth rates will continue for the next 100 years. He also gets math wrong on that too, saying China will lose 600 million people in a decade 😂. Ask him about the deteriorating situation in US education and infrastructure, his head would explode.
@@truckerallikatuk Peter needs some fill lighting.
He definitely went a bridge to far this time.
Peter is out too far.
He’s not entirely wrong about either the bridge (it’s not a house-on-fire emergency, but still important) or the Jones Act (which needs reform and updating).
But that’s the flaw with Peter. He’s often partially right because he has partial knowledge.
@@MarcosElMalo2it’s a house on fire emergency for the people who’s commute just got 4x longer
I was just waiting for your take on Mr. Zeihan's video!
And I wasn't disappointed.
Sal, you should consider running for the US Congress! Your knowledge and common sense would be a great asset! Keep up the good work!
If we want serious people to run for congress, we first have to make sure, that yelling, swearing, and interruptions are not acceptable anymore
You did the homework and he pontificates Trailside. Thank you for pointing out his errors.
This is called.....” politely drawing and quartering your opponent in a debate.”
No it isn’t It’s disrespect and not contextualizng what Peter said. You ppl r awful. Peter is considering the ENTIRE COST STRUCTURE of infrastructure as well as cost per mile to the driver of a truck. There r huge capital outlays in hwys etc and he includes THAT in his discussion. So much for drawing and quartering. He fell flat and looks jealous to boot bec he didn’t listen to Peter long standing deal. He teaches how the world works and he is far superior to big picture than any one industry or persons viewpt within that industry and Sal is looking at ONE industry. Peter is looking at entire cost cycle. U ppl need to do better
Too funny. (And I thougt it was the Canadians who were considered 'polite'.)
@@pecan11 HAHAHA. Sure.
@@pecan11 32 years I'v been trucking in America. I'v never seen commercial trucks from India, China, Russia, The Isle Of Man. Any where on American roads. Do you have any idea how much tonnage is moved in America on the road?
There is no canal or any other water way that goes to half the places Mr. Zeihan brought up.
And let me also remind you, most of the water ways he did mention, were NEVER designed for the size of barges or the pure tonnage that is moved down the Mississippi. You can't bring even a coast container ship into the inner water ways of America. THEY WOULDN'T FIT!
I'm sorry. But your defense of Mr. Zeihan is as laughable as he is.
@@krispypriest5116 yes I AM SURE why listen to Sal when he only has his experience to go on. He hasn’t even been on a ship in many yrs. He doesn’t know the legislative actions going on. He doesn’t even know about the southern waterways along with corps of engineers for MS river. He doesn’t say one word about costs beyond paying trucks to move. FFS THE LOGISTICS R FAR GREATER THAN SIMPLY THAT! Idiot
Sal!!!! Love this!!!! When I first came across Peter I was really interested in his perspective, but very soon I did get a sense of him sort of just spouting off in an arrogant, disdainful way like no one should ever question his wisdom. So for you to play by play question each point…just totally confirmed my intuitive reaction to him. And by the way I love hearing your perspective with the depth of knowledge and experience you bring to relevant issue. You are my go-to-guy when I want to understand shipping related issues! Thanks for all you do!
Thank you for verifying information that is put out there. We appreciate your work.
Zeihan is another one of those who never let facts get in the way of a position they wish to push.
Is he even pushing a position. It sounds like anything that comes out is just mumbo jumbo.
Without you, I would be one of the rocks in the box of rocks. Listening to you I understand whats going on with shipping. I thank you for being there. All I can say is thanks.
Fascinating video. It is great to see some back-and-forth between "experts" (real or imagined) on youtube. For those of us who don't know that subject well, hearing multiple perspectives makes us much more critically informed. Thanks!
Hey Sal, it’s a red sunset day!
Thanks for taking time to post the videos! =)
Peter and Sal are both knowledgeable, especially in their fields of study and experience. They certainly know far more than I do. Far be it for me to object, but for the sake learning I would like to focus on a quote that I didn’t understand.
Peter: … there are many things that have caused the ‘Steel Belt’ to become the ‘Rust Belt’, but I would argue that the Jones Act is the single biggest factor because it raised the cost of transport among these systems and basically drove the business somewhere else.
Sal: … but again, I think it’s those pipelines and those highways that are probably the bigger factor here.
I don’t understand how the Jones Act could possibly be the ‘biggest’ factor. I believe Peter initially said the rivers provide a competitive advantage that we are failing to fully utilize. I don’t understand how a potential advantage in transportation becomes a disadvantage that is the biggest factor in the decline of steel production.
I didn’t give that much thought, but wondered… what is “the biggest factor” causing the decline of steel production in the US.
Of course I’m not that smart, or knowledgeable, and certainly no expert on steel production.
So I quick internet search. One of the first links was extremely helpful; a blog post discussing this specific issue. (The author, Noah Smith, did his homework and provided lots of useful information that covers all the reasons I’ve seen posted. I will provide a link below so you can read it and decide for yourself.) I agree with his conclusion:
Domestic Demand Declined
With respect to Peter and Sal, I agree with Noah. - I may not be smart, or knowledgeable, or an expert, but perhaps I can be clever and help people remember with an alliteration. :p
The decline of domestic demand stands out as the biggest factor. I guess in a way Sal is right! =)
There are many factors, but construction demands the greatest amount of steel, by far. This explains the pipelines, roads, bridges, buildings, etc… heh, and a bonus because they also happen to provide alternate means of transportation too!
Maybe we shouldn’t call it the “Rust Belt”; the industry has modernized. Countries that are growing and expanding and building new infrastructure have a much higher demand for steel. Most of the steel being used is produced domestically. As history shows, once this period of expansion slows, demand for steel drops off. Falling demand was going to happen sooner or later. Perhaps a better question would be, how well does our steel industry compete when comparing exports. If domestic demand increased, would the steel industry be able to meet that need?
Why the U.S. steel industry is dying
22 December, 2023
by Noah Smith
www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-the-us-steel-industry-is-dying
In Websters under the entry for "Bloviate" they have his picture
Peter is beyond his depth.
Wait, really?
Whatever the mountains this guy is filming from, it's best to keep him there
That would be Colorado and the Rockies.
its his basement, were he really outside the sun would be lighting up at least the left side of his face.
@@ThatOpalGuy I presume you mean the right side of his face (stage right is audience left)? That said, the parallax movements of the background when his hand shifts match him being actually outside...at least for this one. The color cast on his face, due to uneven white balance, also indicates him being in the shade behind a rather large object. I have seen him in front of the very same background in the dead of winter however (with a different color cast), so he had to have green-screened those. My guess: he fakes it when it isn't convenient to rattle off six or seven of these during his afternoon walk (to be cleaned up and pre-scheduled for posting later). Ping me (or don't) when he predicts his 20th apocalypse (unless I missed that one already).
It's a mountain of BS that formed from him constantly spewing it from his mouth.
Hopefully not that exact one, it appears to have mobile signal.
Really enjoying your videos and perspectives - things I never even thought about until I found your channel
👏👏👏👏👏👏
Thanks for bringing the nuance and context.
Peter sounds like the typical faculty lounge genius , trust me on this im a owner operator trucker thats been in the business 38 yrs delivering open frreight cargo on flatbeds double drops and step decks my whole career including lots of bridge iron all over the midwest to the east coast , the nation grinds to a halt without a truck taking what ever the commodity is delivered by rail or sea or river to the end user
If the land bridge that is in LA/Long Beach that puts containers directly from ship to RR car and there is a complimentary East coast port that does the same thing, then the land bridge is complete. Far East to Europe and vice versa without no truck involved. But that is the only instance I know of.
Nobody's suggesting we get rid of trucking altogether.
@@djinn666 you're refuting a claim that wasn't made
@@rucker69 "the nation grinds to a halt without a truck taking what ever the commodity is delivered by rail or sea or river to the end user"
The claim is implied. You should try to comprehend communication at a higher level.
@@djinn666 You made that up, mate. Not my problem.
Holy crap. I didn’t realize this was the same guy as in breaking bad. Such a good actor and show. Definitely enjoying his new work.
Jesus Christ I havent looked at the sub count since the 100k milestone, feels like a few months ago. Glad to be here, always enjoy a good juicy zeiham roast
Sal I was listening to this episode while at work and was just shaking my head the whole time. Made the morning go by faster!
I appreciate your analysis because you use actual data and rarely speak in absolutes but rather you use logic and reason and real world examples. I can’t take seriously anyone who doesn’t use facts and figures but instead uses false certainty. Excellent discussion as always! ❤
Peter is just another "know it all" who doesn't. But THAT never stops these guys.
People really need to start ignoring him. Hopefully Sal catches on that Peter is a literal conman.
@@DeathBlossom867 Peter's qualified to run for President.
So am I @@jeffbeck8993
Thanks for your input!
Please do more like this one . Enjoyable
Is Peter really great about geopolitics? The thing I keep noticing about Peter is that experts seem to keep disagreeing with him whenever he talks about their area.
When I know enough about the area, I realize he gives a simplistic answer.
Peter Zehian talks as if he is a prophet and has been calling the collapse of China being 2 weeks away for the last 20 years.
Sounds like the old, "jack of all trades, master of none" scenario, only it's knowledge of geopolitical and economic matters, rather than proficiency in the trades.
He exaggerates in order to sell books, speaking gigs and whatever else he sells. If you go watch his videos from 5-10 years ago, some of the "predictions" he made are laughable specially on economics.
Also, you have to consider where he gets his funding from. It's oil-NatGas money so he's never gonna go against what butters his bread.
Peter tends to start off with a good point of reference and then gets too overconfident in himself on knowing the smaller details.
Peter knows a little bit about a lot of things but makes the mistake of trying to speak as if he knows a lot about everything which just makes him sound like he knows nothing about most things. Someone like him would be better off using his platform to get a panel of experts to speak together about this or that issue instead of trying to do it all himself. It's impossible for one person to learn every little nuance and detail of multiple geopolitical issues to try to put them into perspective and make them make sense to the public at large. What he should be doing is talking and aggregating information from experts like Sal and then "translate" it for us regular people.
I’m glad you stand on your background, experience and knowledge. There should be no problem discussing and disagreeing in a free country.
Thank you for introducing me to Peter. I will now follow him. The Jones act is a cause of grief if you happen to live in Alaska, Hawaii or Puerto Rico by massively increasing prices due to the ridiculous high price cost of shipping, purely due to its requirements.
Thanks for the video Sal.
I am all about truth. In my workplace over the last 7 years have made a difference (Praise God). I applaud you Sal. This is well worth your time and efforts. Your time does mean something. Thank you.
I don't think Peter understands the effects of shutting down the Port of Baltimore will have on the US economy. It is estimated that shutting down the Port of Baltimore will affect 270,000 direct, indirect, or induced jobs. Also, Baltimore is a regional petroleum distribution center. Almost every week, when I crossed the Curtis Bay bridge, there was a small tanker offloading gasoline additives to the facility there.
On top of that the Domino Sugar refinery in Baltimore is the second largest in the country and produces some 20% of North America's refined sugar (all varieties, brown, powder, etc etc)
@@iwatchneatstuff9640 Wow! I knew it was big, but not that big.
That's a US problem, people in Gaza have different problem.
Baltimore is a regional petroleum distribution center? Not sure about that. There is no refinery there and when I sailed on tankers along the east coast we never stopped off in Baltimore. Philly had some refineries up the Delaware River but nothing in Baltimore.
@Redtopper02 There's no refinery. There ate storage tanks. The trucks pull in there and are filled up and out they go to the area. There are even small tankers there from time to time. Its in Curtis Bay, just on the other side of the Curtis Bay bridge from the Coast Guard yard. I saw the tanker there almost every other weekend when I drove over the bridge.
Thanks for the analysis. I watch Peter at least weekly.
Thanks!
Although as a foreigner I hate it, I would think that the Jones Act is the single reason the USA still has a fleet and a shipbuilding industry, I'm jealous, if only others protected their coastal trade. I live in the UK, for hundreds of years we were the predominant sea power with the largest Merchant Navy. As WW2 showed us in times of trouble this is absolutely essential for an island, even with the largest fleet we almost starved. We now have no fleet, no crews, no shipbuilding and no idea, we are are in dire trouble, but few see that. So whatever stick to your guns USA, learn from your cousins who will soon be history, you are right, and cleverer than us.
The US does not have a viable shipbuilding industry. It was drawn, quartered, and shipped off to the Chinese and South Koreans.
It's the inevitable outcome of the neo-liberal economic ideology that has dominated Western thinking since at least the Reagan/Thatcher era. The "market" will solve all problems ... 🙄
Well said David, I am also concerned that our country no longer has the resources or ability to stand on our own feet. This is even more important as the World is getting very angry and it has been shown that not all countries are keeping there promises.
South Korea and Japan and China subsidized their shipbuilding industries into global juggernauts.
Point On ! we have to re-build our marine capabilities 1000%.
Yeah... Cargo wasn't palletized or shipped in containers in the 1920s... Peter seems a little disconnected on how logistics has changed.
The first modern ship-to-shore/train semi-stackable steel containers successfully implemented were used by ports/trains in the UK in the 1950's and 60's, and changed freight and shipping forever. There are good discussions online about that in the UK. Yes they tried many times before, just like EVs are the modern attempts which started in the late 1800's. They even tried a few electric trains in 1800's. The first electric passenger train was presented by Werner von Siemens at Berlin in 1879. Who knew ?
@@Carlos-im3hnActually the first cargo containers were used by railroad to move cargo between Europe and England from the 1880’s. These dropped from use during WW2 (for obvious reasons) and looked like a box car without wheels.
Modern containers were derived from truck bodies.
@@allangibson8494
Started here in the US, by Malcom McClean, a trucking guy. SEA-LAND.
@@baldskits The CONCEPT is much older (and current containers are a completely different size to the ones SeaLand started with (34’)). The European boxcar based container infrastructure ceased to exist between 1939 and 1945 (along with pretty much “infrastructure” itself in Europe).
Have you ever done a pod on the Erie Canal? I'd be particularly interested in modern-day shipping on the canal. Also, you could celebrate your namesake mentioned in the Erie Canal Song.
I recall one recent winter in Philadelphia when there was a salt shortage. There was plenty of salt available in iirc Maine, but it could not be brought to us because the only available ships were not Jones Act compliant.
"The Better Call Sal forum"
Naturally it's always the Jones Act!
Oh, and here on the Great Lakes with have something called ICE a third of the year.
Always blame The Jones Act...
That's impossible. With climate change, there is no ice in the Great Lakes, ever. Someone's lying to me, and I wonder who.
How many times have the capacity of the Soo Locks have been enlarged since 1920?
A true salesman knows how to sound genius.
Tried to tell a buddy this about Petey years ago but he was already hooked.
Yes. Peter is great for stimulating discussion. Really bad for predicting the future.
The difference between being confident in your own powers of analysis and relying on an "expert" to tell you what to think.
Recent history has shown that relying on the "experts" is not very wise.
Yea, i was sent a link to that dude a few month back... and the person like "this guy really knows what he is talking about"
Well.. i have to say i disagree sharply.
Sal, master class in critiquing
I stopped watching Peter a long time ago. There isn't a subject he doesn't think he's an expert on.
Whenever Sal disagrees with Peter I get the sense their frames of reference aren't quite the same, and I would LOVE to hear them talk it out.
I have a feeling that Pete would be gutted, quickly.
Yeah I kind of agree with this it's like Peter is imagining if we had built out a bunch of infrastructure for doing more with shipping. But then Sal is very right that we built out a bunch of infrastructure for not shipping and that's what we use.
For example here in Chicago land there are a series of rivers that used to be used for shipping but they aren't any more. If they were dredged for it and the hydrological infrastructure was there to support it... maybe that manufacturing facility in Chicago wouldn't need to put something on a truck.
They're both right in their own frames of reference if you ask me
How can you talk something out when Peter's logic has no support from reason or mathematics? It's not a different point of view when it's wrong. Peter needs a class on US shipping and the Jones Act, not a forum. And he should take careful notes.
@@ThatOpalGuy Eviscerated is the term!
@@JohnBare747😂😂😂🏆
Regarding Jones Act, I remember an Offshore Construction Vessel from the same company I worked on (I wasn't part of this particular job) mobilised in Mobile AL for a large construction job in Gulf of Mexico, US sector. Project equipment mobilised onboard to be installed on seabed or platform (not equipment that returned to Mobile after job completion) was subject to Jones Act. Result was an empty PSV (Platform Supply Vessel) had to be hired to follow the OCV to the field, so that on paper, the material was transported on a US vessel according to Jones Act.
Thanks for that!
If Sal ever truly gets angry he'd look a bit like the guy on the left but I don't think it's possible for Sal to get that angry, he seems like such a nice guy!
Hank shown on the left side was with the DEA and a straight cop. The actual bald Sal guy was the ex-bad cop, sharpshooter who was very-deep in crime.
When Sal gets mad his hair starts to stick up. He was halfway there on this video.
Sal was a captain. He can get very angry.
@@antherthalmhersser7239 he was actually a second officer before he got lovestruck. He’s Italian, that’s how you know he will get mad.
Love your balanced commentary - thx!
Nice one, good arguments Sal.
I send containers from the US to Micronesia,
which falls under the Jones Act due to a Compact Agreement
with the US.
If I use the US carrier to comply with the Jones act,
my cost per container is 17-20k to ship.
If I use a foreign carrier, ship to Hong Kong or another Asian port,
then re-export from there to Micronesia, called Transhipping,
my cost is $4-6k per container.
At 17-20k its not worth doing,
so in this case, and likely many others,
Jones Act harms US economy and businesses as a whole.
I never believe a word coming out of PZ's mouth - wrong on so many things.
But I would like to get a hold of some of whatever he's smokin'! 😂
He has a system of eating a ton of beans all day and then collects his all his gas in tank. Right before he is going to speak, he puts on a mask and opens the valve to the tank and huffs all of his farts.
The thing about Peter is that he's an expert on almost everything. Which kind of devalues the stuff he's good at.
Sal, I watch everyone one of your videos and shall continue to do so for however long you post, which I hope is forever.
Didn't rail doom most of the original canal systems? And they are considerably more efficient than trucks. How many containers can be on a barge vs a train from Chicago to New Orleans?
Peter is a generalist, he is a mile wide and an inch deep. Handsome, charismatic, but really when he tries to dig into things he gets them wrong. He is the clear coat on your car not the engine. Hearing talk about the navy, my trade, is the same.
I also love to hear Peter Z’s videos, but he often seems to step outside, or extrapolate beyond, his core area of solid competence. This is another case in point!
Great commentary!
I agree with you. Thanks for information
He is most likely saying a 99% relative reduction (ask Pfizer about this trick) which means that if, for example, 60% of cargo was moved by river 100 years ago and now less than 0.6% is, that is a 99% decrease even if the tonnage is higher. Lots of ways to skin a cat's data.
Edit: it could also be roughly 30% as 60% is 100% higher.
When people say 99% or 99.9%.. in 99.9% of the cases they draw the numbers out of there ass. The last 0.1% of the cases is a rounding error.
Did i draw that number out of my ass...absolutely... i´m i still right.. well, probobly.
I imagine you're correct about the relative reduction being his point. Although I would still attribute that decrease to the highway and pipeline networks and Im still pretty convinced that Peter made it up and repeated it with the authority of a man who isn't used to being countered 🙃.
Sal, now I don't what's in Pete's head however, I dare to say he is NOT talking about TONNAGE - old time to new time - but I will speculate he is addressing the level and proportion of goods transported by a lot more of relative populations. In the old days, I bet every little creek and small river was used by someone to get his stuff from A to B when a boat or raft was the best or only transport available. The world has changed and. as you have said (in effect) it's time to update our waterway systems. So, both of you are correct.
Well said Sal...great summary.
Another great video.
That was brilliant. In treating and thought provoking. You're the man Sal.!
I also think they should have a debate but I feel Peter would change the subject on every question he was asked.
OK I cought wind of the channel because of the Scott key bridge. I subbed because of the bridge but in all actuality I'm staying because of what the ship. I had no idea all this stuff was going on other then the bridge. You make great content and what seems like a new video everyday. I don't know how you do it but keep it up👍👍👍
When I worked on our Oil Tankers 30 years ago, we would talk about the problems with the Jones Act and shipbuilding and the Navy, but I did not get the Big Picture viewpoint like I just did from Sal. Good job sir.
We truck a lot of goods that should go by rail. But to say barges should replace trucks is interesting, barges are incredibly slow compared to anything on land.
Just adding - winter in the Great Lakes region is also a factor - let’s wait 3 month for the canals to open to receive a shipment.
Great insight...
5:55 are you sure it's only maritime transport? I don't know about truck transport, but I remember reading about a really weird procedure they did with the Concorde: it arrived in New York, then while it was refueling it also got re-badged as operated by an American airline. Then an American crew flew it the rest of the trip, e.g. to Washington.
I think the reasoning there was that non-US airlines/aircraft/crew were not allowed to operate inside the US.
On the other hand, in 2007 I flew from London to Houston on British Airways. When getting to the US, we landed in Detroit, went through immigrations there, then got back on the same plane and continued to Houston. Not sure what happened there in the background. Possibly, they were only allowed to unload passengers in Detroit and not load anything other than fuel.
You should invite Peter on your channel to discuss it. I'd watch that.
just who the hell is Peter Zeihan he always seems to be talking crap to me like he does not even understand what is coming out iof his yap
From what I understand, Zeihan is "former" CIA - in short, he's little more than a shill for the Neocon Deep State.
Yep, you summed it up. He thinks he is an expert on every topic and for some reason YT people keep giving him a platform. It's almost statistically impossible for someone to be wrong as often as Peter Zeihan.
he and we suffer his loose lips.
He reminds me of a politician. String together, some half truths throw in ridiculous figures and self declare it gospel.
i have in fact beginning to wonder who is exactly paying him for what seems like a disinformation job...the world shipping imdustry sure would like for the Jones act to go away for instance@@georgehughes8698
I would love to see you do a deep dive into the reforms you would like to see in US shipping/maritime law, policy, etc.
Another clear video 👍👍👍
German here.
11:41 what? Our Autobahn is full of trucks, ~80% of inland freight goes by road and not even 1% on water....
I believe it. European rail is so inefficient that it rarely makes sense to use it.
@@MarkRose1337 It depends. In my part of Europe top four cities got better passenger connection by train. Only fifth one wins on highway cause there is no railway to it from capital. There are highways between first four. Rail just happens to be slightly faster and more comfortable to travel in.
@@tokul76 True, it's pretty decent for passenger travel. When it comes to freight though, it's often not worth using. Transloading takes time, so only makes sense for long journeys. With container ports, it does make sense to use rail to an inland port if there is a direct ship-to-rail facility. Freight trains over/through the Alps have definitely helped Swiss road traffic though.
I hear Europe freight trains aren't even 1000 m long, and can't support double stacked containers. A 750 m train will carry only 50 forty foot containers, while an average length 2000 m North American train will carry 300. Trains over 3000 m in length carrying over 450 forty footers a distance of 2000 to 4000 km are common. It's an order of magnitude difference.
I have two Uncles that are PhDs. They are the types that sit in a chair, cross their legs like a woman, light a pipe, and slowly bloviate nonsense as fact. They have impressive credentials from elite Universities of Higher Education. They are very well spoken. They probably sit in leather chairs at the Men's Club sipping 24 year old Scotch echoing one another and laugh jollylee.
I have another Uncle and a Brother that are Piney Point Merchant Marine Captain and First Mate.
Subjects like the Jones Act, Pipelines, "Climate Change", and Mission of The Navy etc... have been discussed extensively at Family Gatherings.
Not ironically, the Sailors make way more sense than the Professors. But you can never question the Professors without "Sources".
Quit whining.
@@jeffbeck8993 😂! Back to the kids table!
@@mfcobb1 You👈first.
Disaster recovery usually involves disparate geographical locations. Western Canada has two railways sharing the same canyon on transcontinental routes. Somehow they manage to share tracks to keep things going for washouts.
I’ll use the Puget Sound as an example. We used to have the Mosquito Fleet in the Puget Sound (Salish Sea). But as railroads and highways became built out the Mosquito Fleet died off. To a non critical eye it may look like the timing of the Jones Act caused the die out of the Mosquito Fleet. However as you state Sal, it was the highway and railroad built out that did in the domestic Shipping.
As roads and railroads built out small domestic ships became less cost effective and they are tied to water ways where a truck or train can go to the same places and many more inland of the waterways.
I feel like Peter is doing his best. And he's also hiking in mountains, you can't argue with that! 👍
@TyroneBiggins-tj2ho What are you saying man 😁
@TyroneBiggins-tj2ho Did you "like" your own comment? 2 minutes after posting...
Moving by truck is expensive compared to other modes of transportation. But... It's the only mode of transportation that can back into a loading dock. Freight can be loaded into intermodal containers, which can be moved by rail or water. This can reduce the price, but takes more time.
Rail can pull up to a loading dock, too... :) The thing with trucking is the flexibility--it can be rerouted and go direct from door-to-door without laying track or digging canals or trans-shipping.
@@olpaint71 Yes, you are right, boxcars can go up to a dock. I didn't think about that because I so rarely see it. I've been to many factories and warehouses that have these docks and rail sidings, but most haven't been used in many years. You are also right about the flexibility of trucks.
What I wouldn’t give to spend a term studying under Dr Sal👏🏻👏🏻
This is way it is so very important to have a well informed, articulate individual respond to statements made by a someone who has limited knowledge of the subject but a large audience.
We need a Sal and Peter debate.
That would be pointless. One is a subject matter expert, the other is a con artist.
@@exocre9193 Just name calling and discrediting people is abhorrent. Do better!
@@exocre9193ya don't pick on Sal like that,..on his own video no less,.. at least do no worse😮
No We Don't.
@@bruteht4655 dude thinks jesus is real..so....
Opinions are like a#*holes, everybody has one....😂
Gotta love internet experts.