How Ukraine's Refinery Strikes Destabilize the Entire Russian Economy
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- čas přidán 31. 05. 2024
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Ukraine's targeting of Russian oil refineries raises deeper questions about the Russian economy. Today's video looks back at the "Dutch disease" problem that Russia faced at the beginning of the war, how the Russian Central Bank resolved the problem, and how Ukraine's new strategic bombing campaign puts it back into focus.
0:00 Ukraine's Refinery Attacks and Russia's Economic Position
1:34 Russia's Dutch Disease Problem
5:27 The West's Obvious Sanctions Strategy
7:53 The West's Actual Strategy
12:25 How Russia's Economy Has Survived
15:27 Ukraine's New Economic Pressure on Russia
16:58 Implications for the War's Near Future
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
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The reason for the consistent spike is that is when Econ 102 students are introduced to dutch disease and look it up before the midterms
Your welcome
*You're welcome
Well done sir 👏
youre* god damn college students
It is a smart decision to use William's videos for studying.
😳😂 Damn you're probably right tho! 💀
"Russia can't sell oil, the money runs out, and the war ends." It's always more complicated than this, and you always do an excellent job of explaining how. Thanks!
But they sell to china for cheap
@@Felix28Blessed If they sell it for cheap, their profits are much lower, which has the same effect, just not as strong. (its also much more expensive to ship oil and gas to China rather than Europe)
I so LOVE this channel. Complex issues reduced to understandable information without condensation. Love the humor, and oh my, the lines, I love the lines on the map.
Yep. And this is how Ukraine will take down Putler. Economically. Only a matter of time. Putin is then deposed and then the invaders will retreat to Russia.
Russia would be at war if they had no money.
chatgpt: "Dutch Disease" often sees a spike in interest around March because that's when many economic reports and analyses are released, including those related to oil and gas industries, which are commonly associated with Dutch Disease.
That would make sense!
Chat GPT being smart is wild
Chat GPT is still pretty dim. The reason there's an apparent spike in searches for "Dutch Disease" around March is actually because that's when symptoms of Dutch Elm disease in trees starts becoming noticeable. So, blame it on the arborists.
It was dumb to use the dollar as a weapon of war in the first place! From the start we should have made it clear with force that the invasion was unacceptable! IMO
@@Gametheory101 All of these explicably caused spikes would be dwarfed, however, if Taylor Swift or Beyonce were to drop a song with a lyric mentioning Dutch disease -- for ex., likening her overreliance on or obsession with a particular guy to her own personal "Dutch disease".
India had already stopped buying Russian oil, mostly, because of the threat of secondary sanctions, and because they could get oil almost as cheaply from much closer suppliers in the Persian Gulf (with no Red Sea problems). And NO, Russia can't repair much of anything not only because the parts come from the West, but because the people that built and maintained their petroleum industry were mostly from the West, and they have left and won't come back. And refineries are complicated things.
Yea that’s what a lot of Russian supporters seem to think. They appear to be under the impression that you can just jury rig refineries to work if you don’t have the proper experience
A lot of their experts indeed came from the west but not all of them. Not to mention that a lot depends on where exactly the drone hit. Refineries are somewhat easier to repair on average, because a lot of the area is made of stuff that while important to make refinery operational is not that difficult to repair (pipes and stuff). Plus if need be there are specialists in Kazakhstan and other countries that might provide some assistance with knowledge for the right price and they don't have to be on site even. But yes, if a component that requires a lot of expertise plus foreign parts is struck - then it will be difficult for Russia to repair it quickly.
@@jannegrey593 im pretty sure it took 6 months for one of the refineries struck a long while ago to be back to functional not full capacity but functional and refining, meaning you could kill the russian energy industry faster than it can repairs refining who the fucks waiting for russian gas and oil when the middle east is right there
India is always working in its own interest, but having a strong US counterweight to China is absolutely in their interest. India is traditionally a large Russian Arms purchaser, and often hasn’t been a fan of US relationships with Pakistan. Ultimately as Pakistan has moved closer to China and the Chinese Indian border disputes antagonize their relationship, India is navigating a very interesting version of Real Politick
@@Spanner249 India is buying 1.4 million bpd from Russia and selling the distillates to the EU. I do not see how people can claim that India is siding with the EU or US. In fact, it seems to be moving away from the US as the State Department is meddling in its elections as it does in all elections.
"Dutch Disease" isn't imposing enough. It sounds like something you'd get from persistent bike strain.
They should call it something like, “Spiraling the Nether” - give it a real flavor of doom.
Stroopwafle Death Spiral
Dutch Doom Drain
"Spiraling the Nether" - Depending on the industry. It could also go "Brown-Chicken Brown-Cow", if you know what I mean.
as a dutch guy when I first heard Dutch disease I was thinking of an STD.
I'm glad it's not
how about neder-fucked?
Last I checked, the US never directly said to not target oil refineries it has stated multiple times essentially that “ whilst we don’t recommend this action, we won’t disapprove of it either”
Danish version of having your cake and eating it too:
You can't sell the fur before the bear has been shot
That’s grizzly
That's cool, we have exactly the same saying in the Netherlands. "je moet de huid niet verkopen, voordat de beer geschoten is."
The Germans agree:
"Man soll das Fell des Bären nicht verteilen, bevor er erlegt ist"
Kind of funny, though, that the German version is more liberal than the Dutch one... ("should not" vs. "must not") 😆
You can sell produce before its been harvested
Same in french
Dear mr. William Spaniel, Gazprom has recently announced a financial loss of 7 billion for the year 2023. Since this is for the period before ukraine started hitting russian oil industry on a regular basis, i'd like you to make a video about how this will affect russia in 2024
as a dutch person, apology accepted
🤣🤣 Thats funny . Its great your able to move on with an apology, i fear if it were called american disease they'd be asking for reparations . lol !
The March bump on your Dutch disease video coincides with international political science and economics classes topics and paper preparation at universities. All students hope for a video to save them from (careful) reading of assignments. That’s my hypothesis, at least.
March is the start of tourism season in Holland and people are worried about catching dutch diseases while over there so every march we see a spike of confused and mildly annoyed new viewers
Hahaha really?? That's so funny! I was very curious but that makes so much sense! 😂
Close but not quite. The surge is a result of college students getting back from spring break and trying desperately to figure out what that rash is.
There's also a surge in searches on sex blindness and horse hair toxicity... whatever that's about!?!
That's crotch disease.
That's actually a testable hypothesis - do the number of downvotes surge as well?
Dutch disease = starting to like Heineken.
Generally, no single factor is going to determine war. Sanctions might not be as effective as hoped for, but every little bit adds up. You know how it goes - slowly at first, then all at once, when shit collapses.
Tipping points are like that.
Everything happens slowly until it happens fast
And those of us outside, or the regular Russian person, will not see the deterioration on the inside but only the final collapse. It was the same with the fall of the Soviet Union. It surprised the wider world but the rot had been growing sight unseen to us.
Hmmm I think we in the west are deluded, Russia production outpacing every nato nation combined and 100,000 fresh Russian troops about to enter the fry, if Russia secures Donbas there are a lot of rescources there, might even be a big factor in the offensive itself
It's always slow change until it goes down real fast
A great pairing with this would be Perun's "Why wartime economies don't collapse (until they do)"
Gazprom just reported a $7B loss down from a $31B gain, so a total loss of $38B. How was that not mentioned? That would suggest huge numbers of customers gone. Oil r efineries have nothing to do with NG.
It's almost like less natural gas is consumed when the winter months end
NG is hard to transport because you need to convert it to LNG when transported by sea. Pipes like Nord Stream are a very cheap way to transport gas. iirc Russia has only one LNG terminal which been hit. Europe was the biggest customer. Russia has to burn off the surplus or risk being unable to restart. Not surprised they made a massive loss.
@@oohhboy-funhouse no shit, hence the massive cash loss.
@@oohhboy-funhouseburning off NG doesn't cause a profit loss. Lost sales, or insufficient prices, or capital expenses do
Q1 is for the streets
You did pretty good on the pronunciation of Groningen
Agreed. But I was hoping he would try to pronounce Slochteren.
Hard pass on Slochteren!
@@Gametheory101 7:01 - The easter egg, your book inserted next to Elvira Nabiullina in the photo. Good joke. I checked Kriminalin's homepage, unfortunately she didn't have the book in the original photo. It would have been wonderful if she'd had. Thanks for all your videos, always informative and instructive. Cheers from Denmark
@@Gametheory101Slo-GGGGHHHGGHH-teh-ren, you can do it I believe in you
Washington's fears of higher gas prices has been misplaced. They never asked where the distillates were going, if they did, they wouldn't care. Few want the distillates because they can refine the oil themselves, get the value added, the fractions they want, export the surplus. Doubly so if you can get the raw material for cheap, lowering gas prices. However, secondary sanctions would increase the price, so the allies are taking the $70 win, letting the foreign refiners pocket the difference.
We haven't factored in who is paying for transport and smuggling overhead. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia is paying, as China/India has taken Russia to the cleaners from the start.
India has stopped buying russian gas and oil for a while now
Thank you Spaniel for keeping us updated on current events regarding the unjustified war in Ukraine.
Appearently dutch disease is studied in universities/schools in march. So any Dutch disease search might have a spike.
But especially you might be in recomended list for several teachers.
Groningen was pronounced rather well. Our pronounciations of "g" and "ng" (both are very different from eachother) are unique (and therefore difficult) in Western languages.
Its funny. People laugh at German (the language of Germany) for being 'ugly', but in a day-to-day sense, Dutch is rougher than German. "How are you" in Dutch is "hoe gaat het me je" and in German its "Wie geht es dir"
When Ruzzian petroleum industries are a trending topic, YT AI triggers a wave of referrals to that video on Dutch disease. The latest spike is driven by the sudden tsunami of Ukrainian hits on refineries. The previous one was around a crash in oil and gas prices, which is having a massive impact on the retail price of fuel in the U.S. in both directions. This in turn is becoming a central topic in the Biden v. trump saga.
Not so ... Russian refined fuels exports was not that big. See were the locations are !! Not quite super-tanker spots. And gasoline is not typically piped over large distances. Regional sales were supported, like to neighboring countries (and those are many), but crude is the main Russian fuel export. Important though: no refineries: no gas at the station: angry people! No kerosine for planes, no diesel for trucks ... no logistics and all halts!! Now: it grinds! Good shots by Ukraine!! Putin just needs to snap his fingers and retreat from the military operation...
@@nas4apps I was speaking of the recent spike in views of the old Dutch disease video. However, it is unquestionably the case that U.S. retail fuel price increase correlates with the refinery hits. The petroleum market is global. Every barrel of anything that Moscow has to keep for itself that would have otherwise been sold to e.g. India, is a barrel India has to buy from someone else, which would have otherwise diluted the global market price.
@@no_rubbernecking 👍 ... markets are emotional. Those Russian quantities are unlike Houston or Rotterdam, much smaller...
@@nas4apps True that's emotional, but another truth is that it's dominated by North American price speculators who own or control massive storage facilities which they deploy for use in controlling wholesale prices. And they also tend very strongly to a particular political party which happens to not hold the White House or the U.S. Senate at the moment....
not really, its impacting russian diesel and gasoline prices inside russia but its creating a bottleneck of excess russian crude which they have to sell on the international markets to chinese and indians at a deeper discount than the 30 percent they are giving them currently.
it doesnt affect crude supply, but rather diesel and gasoline supply inside russia. also affects russian jet fuel because its a by product of gasoline production.
you see the russians dont have the western experts or parts anymore because they left and because of sanctions. so if russia turns off its drilling pumps, there is a chance they wont start up again and its expensive to turn pumps off. as well if you turn off your pumps too long and it turns into winter, the pipes freeze and crack and takes a long time to repair and its very expensive. the russians found this out in 1990 when they shut off their pumps and they froze and cracked all their pipes and it took 20 years to repair it all with exxon mobile experts.
its why when russia lost 82 percent of their gas sales to eu by pipeline, they didnt stop pumping gas but they burned it. because if they turned off the gas pumps and the pipes froze and broke they cant fix it. so russians just burning their gas cuz they cant sell it to anyone else right out of the well head.
I'm from Groningen, and for a non-native, you're absolutely fine.
Excellent analysis! Clear, to the point, and most rewarding, says, “we don’t know”, when we don’t know!
The unit shown at 45 seconds looks like a CCR, Continuos Catalytic Reformer, or Platformer. It converts Naphtha in gas form to hydrogen and high octane molecules that are used for hydrogenation of the diesel and to boost the octane rating of naphtha to turn it into gasoline. (Yes, it's actually a little more complicated, but I'm not writing a book.) Striking that unit would not completely stop production in the plant, but it is a very valuable piece of kit.
For YEARS. They also don't have the tech to produce quality gas, so they will start producing Ru low quality, which will burn out all new car engines.
After this war, Ru will be a third world.
There was unconfirmed talk of domestic fuels getting reduced in octane content and environmental metrics to something like E3 or lower. Given that cars and parts are significantly more expensive now, and the double whammy of a recent report that over 40% of the oil on the market is counterfeit, that could really hit the people hard in a couple of years.
Just to look at the numbers here, my uncle's car is around 50% more expensive if he sold it right now than it was brand new when he bought it 5 years ago.... People simply won't be able to afford a new car if the engine on their old one gives out. Sure, will take a few years for that, but we are in the third year of the so-called "SVO" here, with no sign of it stopping.
I really appreciate the quick, but not rushed, video explaining the stratigic goals of Ukraines attack. Thank you
IT HAS GONE 2 MINUTES SINCE RELLEASE YOU COULD NOT HAVE WATCHED THE ENTIRE VIDEO IN THAT TIME
@@isakgronkvist5871🗿 unless he watched it at 5x speed, it’s called multitasking
@@isakgronkvist5871 It also likes to mention something as if the aggressor orcs are the one's 'under attack' and it got 13 likes right away.
So either disgusting orcs or an orcbot, all the same to me though just imagine me pointing and laughing at them... loudly 🤷♂
@@isakgronkvist5871lmao 😅
@@isakgronkvist5871 You haven't heard of Evelyn Wood Speed Watching?
A deep dive into the corollation to Alaska. And a projection for Alaska as a State, would be interesting.
Starting out as a raw materials extraction colony, moved into territory status, discovery of gold led to population boom, moved into statehood, followed by petroleum industry finds and development leading to further population boom, growth in services housing etc.
Now there is a demand to eliminate oil extraction in the 49th State while continuing to do so in other states.
Alaskan economy is oil, timber, fishing, tourism, military defense bases, air transport of goods and to a lesser degree mining. There is virtually no manufacturing or value added processing.
This video should have been twice as long.
great content
meanwhile I'm looking for a tl;dr
I wish he'd make longer form videos. Not that he doesn't do enough amazing work. Just crave more after every video, and would love even more depth.
17:35 The pic is not from Apollo 11. The 11 didn’t have the rover.
So March is also my birthday month, so it makes sense that videos I like would be advertised more that month than other months.
I tend to spend my birthdays watching videos about Dutch Disease, too.
As for the manufacturing and service sectors, you could mention the population drain. Not just people leaving but the people being fielded and killed. Fewer workers pay goes up, inflation, fewer workers pay goes up. I am also wondering about the effect of flooding Russia with counterfeit rubbles, it should be easy enough to get them in through Belarus.
If march is about the halfway point of spring semester for college students, they might be researching dutch disease for economics classes
The Duct Tape was used on the Apollo 17 mission to fix the Rover.
Thank you. I didn't remember which Apollo mission it was but I knew it wasn't Apollo 11.
In case anyone cares, the rover wasn't included until Apollo 15.
The explanation you gave for "Dutch Disease" is very similar to that of the "Cantillon Effect." After a quick google search I found that indeed what we know of today as Dutch Disease was articulated in the special case of a gold mine in Cantillon's Essay on Economic theory. Interesting stuff!
at 01:50 I spotted Gerassimov dressed up as a dutch wind mill
Hi Dr. Spaniel!
You can't sit in two chairs, but you can read two books on the invasion in Ukraine.
Thank you for your unique perspective and the great work
Dutch here and born in Groningen, I have to say that you did quite well on the pronunciation! It's a though one 😉
Another thought provoking analysis!! Thank you!!
I come for the history/news and stay for the Find Waldo game
Great video! Thanks for sharing.
Great episode, thanks for such detailed information!
A brilliant presentation. Thanks!
Good reporting. Thank you. Strong democracy.
The reason your videos are getting more views is because you’re awesome ❤
How do his nuts taste? 😂
Huh, as a German I've never heard the saying about washing fur without getting wet, but after some googling I found that it does exist, so I can't fault you for that lol
ur views are spiking cause ur an amazing channel, u should have 10mill subs, not 600k, lines on maps, and at the same time u give us the news, with no bullshit, not too long, not too short
Thanks for the vids! I watch every one twice.
Me too, as I usually get to the end and feel like Prof. Spaniel explained everything very well, and I did not retain any of it.
We call this "Maladie Australienne" down here. Merci d'Australie à Mr Spaniel, great explanation.
Ty so much continued great content.
In Russian, the term for natural resource dependency is "Oil Needle", as in needle of a smack syringe
War is politics by other means. Politics is economics by other means. Lines on charts will rule!
I have just found you. Very good. Need to look up some of your older posts.
I just realized that this is a PowerPoint slide.
In march of this year several other content creators were talking about Ukraine's refinery campaign.
Algorithm favours videos a year or two years old, because it picks up on that (on the topic of war) videos are more relevant 1 year after publication that 6 months. Could make sense. Seasons are relevant for (some) videos, enough that an algorithm just starts recommending and seeing if a video is relevant one year on
A strong currency does not hurt manufacturing, for when you can import cheap resources, you have a competitive manufacturing sector.
It does however hurt resource extraction.
If people import too much made goods you slap on some tariffs.
The "Aftershock" graphical effect was beautiful. .
Great News!
my best guess is that people are planning to tour EU in Spring, and it's a second-hand effect of paranoid travelers. thx for the video.
Theory for Views: The Topic of Dutch Disease is part of a curriculum for Economics/related topics of a given country. So it is being taught at the same time of the year to the current grade. The Active searching for the Topic also could incentivise the Algorithm to show it to other people, resulting in the large spike in views.
"You can't sit in two chairs" makes more sense than "You can't have your cake and eat it too".
I read a story about how the Koreans have started cracking down on Russian sourced Naptha. Refined products are now stranded off the coast of Oman. It's unclear if this Naptha is from Russian refineries or from third parties using Russian crude for feed stock. There seems to be a ramp up in pressure on distillates even if the drone attacks are frowned upon. Confusing...
Cracking down on Naptha - that's a terrible joke - you get an upvote from me.
@@andrewharrison8436 Are you a petroleum engineer to get that one?
Good video
The "dancing red dot" at the beginning of the video is quite complementary to your 'lines on maps.' Enjoy your works and keep up the fine videos (and books).
17:33 The duct tape fix of the fender happened on Apollo 17, not Apollo 11.
It was a great video regardless
Dang. We had our hundred some year old elm trees devastated. That was my first mental picture.
I'm sure that occurred to Elm trees in UK too .
I'm a simple man I see a william video I watch
Excellent video.
Good one
my closed captioning covered the book! Great analysis as always.
Well done Cameron, standing forward with unrestricted use of arms, how many weeks will we wait for the rest of Europe and the US to stand alongside.
Lets also realize that not only are parts less available but the US companies are no longer prominent in the repair and operation of petrol industry
Very interesting!
Oh the viewer increase is because I passed out with your video on loop
My theory for the viewership anomaly is that there is some professor or even a curriculum that covers Dutch Disease
Excellent analysis ❤
Kudos on the book placement. I thought I recognized my book and wonder if she would give you review on Amazon.
again, I’m a simple man. More lines on maps means more upvotes from me.
7:01 your book!
This surprised me!
As a Belgian, that Gronigen made me fysically recoil.
Also good video
2:30 I live there mate, appology accepted. ❤
Dutch Disease sounds like fungal crutch rot due to too much time on a bicycle saddle.
Got bless the AFU!
Thanks!
Wow, that was incredibly generous. Thank you!
Norway got it right. They learned the lessons that the Dutch had to learn the hard way.
Slava Ukraini
The rushist empire is crumbling
yet they are pushing west
Prije ce evropa da se raspadne to su vasi snovi ali nece se ispuniti
😂If only
"Wash your fur without getting it wet" is my favorite iteration of that expression. With the cake, like, why else would I even have a cake?
I was going to ask some questions but some very knowledgeable commenters already answered them.
Not only that, their economy starts to be as big as the Dutch one 😂
Nog niet.denk ik ..gdp 1000 miljard.Ned..Maar de tijd zal het leren.
OMGosh ! Elvira Nabiullina has a copy of how Ukraine has survived the Russian attack ! I hope your book hasn't given them new methods of prosecuting this war to their advantage. That is very serious news William.
Thanks for the video!
I am from Russia and I am not familiar with the phrase about fish from 9:39. The closest we have is 'without work you won't catch fish from the pond', rhymed in the original (без труда не выловишь и рыбку из пруда).
I think Ukraine's attacks on the fuel infrastructure are justified and correct. And it won't likely end the war, but it damn sure makes it more difficult for Russia to fight it, especially politically.
For me the Easter egg was Pootler in the Hockey suit, because I know what happened shortly after that, when he ate red carpet. Not sure if that was the one you were talking about, though...I will see when I get to the end of the vid.
Har, har, the Rover fender fix/rocket science, pretty sure this is it. Not much of a stretch for a retired aerospace engineer. It is actually missile tape, though. Kind of just the duct tape of champions. In my day, it was an olive green. It was really impressive stuff, actually. In today's consumer comparison, think Gorilla tape, on steroids. Better, stronger material, intensely strong adhesive. That tape there looks as if it may have been foil backed, another form of it.
Damn, got it wrong both times, I should have been thinking from your aspect, not mine. :-) Oh, that troublesome bias! That's one of those, "You've seen that about a thousand times now, John, do you think you might ever incorporate it? I can be a lot dense.
I'm from the Netherlands and I don't mind you butcher that name...... :-)
I live next to an Oil Refinery. A few years ago, it had a major over haul, which took 3 months, but only because they had the manpower and the work was in three shifts. So 24/5. Yep, they had the weekend off. Oh, and also parts where needed. So unless Russia has trained workers and the spare parts they need. They will keep loosing more then they can repair.
The lunar rover fender repair occurred during the Apollo 17 mission, not Apollo 11. Apollo 11 did not even carry a rover - they were only present on 15, 16, and 17.
Wake up babe, lines on maps man just dropped a new video
video spike theory, I would say this might be related to f1, Max Verstapen, the reigning champion for those years, is dutch, the start of the f1 calendar is in march, I'd guess new viewers were like "where is Dutch?", cause not everyone knows about the Netherlands. They google it and then get a prompt about a dutch disease video and watched it. my best guess.
Thanks for your great videos. 🇦🇺👴🏻
very interesting video
Can't have enough of nuance. Deeply lacking in today's world of video essays, you seem to be the final few of the bastion.
Not if you ask the Vatniks. Anyone not concluding that russia is invincible is "hopelessly biased and living in a dream-world." I often see such comments on videos in which the presenter has said "this and this is bad for the Ukrainians" and "this and this is bad the for russians".
@@karsten11553 today I learned what is a "Vatnik". Yes indeed, there seem to be these people and it is very ironic how this propaganda is effective even when there has been a huge miscalculation and heavy operational failure. Even considering recent Russian advances, they are at HUGE costs, both of life and weapons/ammunition.
@@Grand-Rose spot on :)