Jack Bogle: How to Tell if the Stock Market is Overvalued (Rare Interview)

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  • čas přidán 5. 09. 2024

Komentáře • 115

  • @InvestorCenter
    @InvestorCenter  Před 3 lety +8

    Check out the most popular Jack Bogle video on the channel 🔽
    czcams.com/video/cjyPPKAVhhE/video.html

    • @karsynmayson3687
      @karsynmayson3687 Před 3 lety

      sorry to be so off topic but does anybody know of a trick to get back into an Instagram account?
      I was dumb lost the password. I love any assistance you can give me!

    • @brycedevon5547
      @brycedevon5547 Před 3 lety

      @Karsyn Mayson instablaster =)

    • @karsynmayson3687
      @karsynmayson3687 Před 3 lety

      @Bryce Devon i really appreciate your reply. I got to the site thru google and I'm waiting for the hacking stuff atm.
      Seems to take quite some time so I will reply here later with my results.

    • @karsynmayson3687
      @karsynmayson3687 Před 3 lety

      @Bryce Devon It worked and I actually got access to my account again. I am so happy:D
      Thanks so much, you saved my account!

    • @brycedevon5547
      @brycedevon5547 Před 3 lety

      @Karsyn Mayson No problem :D

  • @seanburke4421
    @seanburke4421 Před 2 lety +26

    I've had Vanguard's s&p 500 17 years I promised myself I would never touch/cash in .
    It's incredible the power/miracle of compounding thankyou Jack

  • @adarshshetty2687
    @adarshshetty2687 Před 3 lety +51

    It's not Timing the market but Time in the Market that counts.

    • @InvestorCenter
      @InvestorCenter  Před 3 lety +5

      One of the most important things investors need to remember

    • @golfer977
      @golfer977 Před 3 lety +3

      Not always true if you’re investing in hype bubble stocks for years and watch it all tank and never return, such as 2000

    • @samsun01
      @samsun01 Před 3 lety +1

      did you live through the dotcom bubble?

    • @golfer977
      @golfer977 Před 3 lety +2

      @@samsun01 yes I did

    • @samsun01
      @samsun01 Před 3 lety +1

      @@golfer977 very nice (in hindsight). your quote was insightful, was curious if you had the rich experience to back it up.

  • @chuckdiezel7652
    @chuckdiezel7652 Před 3 lety +29

    Don’t do something, just stand there!

    • @InvestorCenter
      @InvestorCenter  Před 3 lety +2

      That is a good way to put it!

    • @dynamo3059
      @dynamo3059 Před 3 lety

      assumes you're broadly diversified. if your in risky penny stocks or some shit that's a good way to lose everything. or the idiots who bought and held gme at $450

  • @Je.rone_
    @Je.rone_ Před 3 lety +56

    "Buy index funds that track the market" Everything John bogle has ever says in a nutshell😂

    • @InvestorCenter
      @InvestorCenter  Před 3 lety +7

      Bogle has been pretty consistent with his messaging haha

    • @Showmetheevidence-
      @Showmetheevidence- Před 3 lety +9

      @@InvestorCenter He didn’t die poor... just saying.

    • @joonpak
      @joonpak Před 3 lety +2

      Isn’t that essentially what Buffett says?

    • @vtheb1299
      @vtheb1299 Před 3 lety +1

      And he's been right always

    • @BadWeatherfreak
      @BadWeatherfreak Před 3 lety +2

      Yeap. Put your money on VTI it tracks the whole market

  • @Akshay_3099
    @Akshay_3099 Před 3 lety +43

    His voice is so young......

  • @migueleduardo6297
    @migueleduardo6297 Před 3 lety +20

    Bogle was very inteligent , had a lot to say about stock market, a pity his gone

  • @clemfarley7257
    @clemfarley7257 Před rokem +3

    He was a great mind and help.
    Not meant as a criticism, but he got the next 6 years wrong, which he would say, were he living, that that was his point precisely.
    But maybe he wouldn’t. The structure or paradigm has changed with Fed intervention never seen before and money printing never seen before. So, is that sustainable? Real?
    No one touches those questions.

  • @pran10000
    @pran10000 Před 3 lety +7

    So basically your attempt at timing the market should be tweaking your asset allocation a little bit. Anything more is a waste of time.
    Thanks for sharing!

  • @jb6879
    @jb6879 Před 3 lety +28

    he's the nicest Sith Lord i've ever seen..

    • @219garry
      @219garry Před 3 lety +2

      His investing style is considered by many to be UNNATURAL.

    • @milkismurder
      @milkismurder Před 28 dny

      Have you heard the comedy of darth bogle the wise?

  • @billl1127
    @billl1127 Před 3 lety +17

    PE valuations are even higher now in 2021. There are no permanent plateaus. Smart money is preparing by keeping some cash ready.

    • @InvestorCenter
      @InvestorCenter  Před 3 lety +1

      We will see what happens!

    • @fne1198
      @fne1198 Před 3 lety

      No don't do that when country debt is historically high and the fed will print a ton of cash, your USD will get massively devalued. If you want dry powder use gold and crash-proof stocks. Cash and bonds are a terrible idea right now.

    • @billl1127
      @billl1127 Před 3 lety +2

      @@fne1198 Please share your list of "crash proof" stocks.

    • @fne1198
      @fne1198 Před 3 lety +1

      ​@@billl1127 Right, I should have clarified that one ;) No stock is crash-proof, but a combination of many carefully selected ones can increase the probability to be among the least affected when things go down. Based on that for me that means a couple of percents in each grocery related stocks I can find that seem solid. WMT, COST, KR, P&G, JNJ, CL, KMB, etc. Some of these might go bankrupt or fall a lot, but generally people will not stop eating and washing their hair during a financial crisis. If they fall hard, just stay in there (maybe buy even more), but for those stocks that didn't it gives you an opportunity to buy massively undervalued stocks that fell really low because of crowd panic. And all the while you stayed in the market, because going in cash would be the stupidest thing to do. But if you also have some GLD, then you will most likely be able to also use that gold as dry powder after the crash.

    • @ArtHoward
      @ArtHoward Před 3 lety

      @@fne1198 Just learned the term for this. They're called "defensive stocks" (not to be confused with defense stocks).

  • @Allenbass7
    @Allenbass7 Před 3 lety +5

    Humble, yet knowledgable. (Or maybe the other way around)

  • @InvestingwithKurt
    @InvestingwithKurt Před 3 lety +16

    "Invest you must"

    • @InvestorCenter
      @InvestorCenter  Před 3 lety +2

      Such a classic Bogle quote

    • @InvestingwithKurt
      @InvestingwithKurt Před 3 lety

      @@InvestorCenter yes, to me it was one of the fundamental messages Bogle was trying to get across before you even discuss the how, what, allocation, etc.

  • @pnkrckmom
    @pnkrckmom Před 3 lety +24

    "Never ever get out of the market."

    • @InvestorCenter
      @InvestorCenter  Před 3 lety +4

      That’s important advice that people need to hear, especially right now

    • @pnkrckmom
      @pnkrckmom Před 3 lety +8

      @@InvestorCenter Yes, but I can't tell you how freaked out I was during the early part of 2020 with the first round of lockdowns. I KNEW what it would do to the economy, but as a "newish" investor, I was scared! Especially when more experienced people around me were saying, "I moved all my money to more conservative places." Ugh. Well, I'm happy to say that not only did I "stay the course," I added 2k hoping to capitalize on the downturn and get stocks on sale. Sadly, I think I added it too soon, but whatever. I'm still in and didn't sell or move anything!!! That's huge for me.

    • @Showmetheevidence-
      @Showmetheevidence- Před 3 lety +2

      Ok, so how do I ever “make money” then?
      If I only ever bought shares and never sold, when do you ever benefit from this investing?

    • @MeMe-wz5hv
      @MeMe-wz5hv Před 3 lety +2

      @@Showmetheevidence- you live off the returns from your investments. You accumulate enough wealth to withdraw Dividends + growth and live on that.

    • @karmathebrit7856
      @karmathebrit7856 Před 3 lety +1

      I wouldn’t say never get out. If you can see incoming turmoil and huge drops in value ahead, you definitely could double your portfolio by selling and then rebuying at a discount. It’s what a lot of people did in January. Never get out and stay out ;) haha.

  • @TDubya811
    @TDubya811 Před 3 lety +10

    Would like to hear his thoughts on current valuations.

  • @korylehman79
    @korylehman79 Před 3 lety +6

    Thank you so much for bringing us this video, Investor Center

  • @fredatlas4396
    @fredatlas4396 Před 5 měsíci

    I agree with John Bogle but I think he could have warned people about how risky bonds can really be, considering that they'd been in over 30 year bull market for bonds. Ultra low interest rates for yrs, bond prices very high.

  • @dakotah3043
    @dakotah3043 Před 3 lety +6

    This is a gem 💎

  • @Showmetheevidence-
    @Showmetheevidence- Před 3 lety +24

    Um. Is it when Tesla is at 1800:1 P/E. lol.

    • @samsun01
      @samsun01 Před 3 lety +5

      @@d3ly51d dotcom bubble crash happened when entire market P/E was at 30

  • @user-bt9cm7ze4c
    @user-bt9cm7ze4c Před 3 měsíci

    Before Jack died he said he hoped he didn't create a monster with these index funds. They were never meant for EVERYONE to put all their money in.

  • @joschkahurst
    @joschkahurst Před rokem

    Jack Vangard Bogle what a great American

  • @jaeminkim8364
    @jaeminkim8364 Před 3 lety +5

    Great video

  • @rajvo7406
    @rajvo7406 Před 3 měsíci

    1:30..... the market has nominally doubled since

  • @Mozzos
    @Mozzos Před 3 měsíci

    well this interview was in 2017 and he thought going into a bear market and low returns for a while. The market has boomed and still sky rocketing. Insanity.

  • @investwitheleni1008
    @investwitheleni1008 Před 3 lety +3

    thanks for sharing!

  • @therighteous802
    @therighteous802 Před 5 měsíci

    What he did not consider at the time is that the printer goes brrrrrrrrrrr.

  • @eh7599
    @eh7599 Před rokem

    Great mind

  • @RamalhoIO
    @RamalhoIO Před 3 lety +2

    Legend.

  • @rajvo7406
    @rajvo7406 Před 3 měsíci

    7:30 - 4% yearly return in next decade.
    This is a 2017 video

  • @holdruss6197
    @holdruss6197 Před 3 lety +2

    Hmm 3-4 years ago

    • @InvestorCenter
      @InvestorCenter  Před 3 lety

      Stocks have gone up a lot since then 😂

    • @Skilliard
      @Skilliard Před 3 lety

      @@InvestorCenter bond yields have also gone down a lot since then

    • @mrkinetic
      @mrkinetic Před 3 lety

      He did say never get out of the market

  • @user-bt9cm7ze4c
    @user-bt9cm7ze4c Před 3 měsíci

    Investing in stocks isn't the same for everyone. Your age is very important. You don't wanna be all in stocks when you retire in case a crash happens right when you retire.

  • @BIGGOODBOY
    @BIGGOODBOY Před 3 lety +1

    He says but Bitcoin

  • @indexplus
    @indexplus Před 3 lety +1

    Was jan 13, 2021 the day this video was uploaded or the day the interview happened? I wish all videos had both dates clarified

    • @loveandpeace8760
      @loveandpeace8760 Před 3 lety +2

      Read the description. 2017.

    • @10010x0x0x01101XX0X1
      @10010x0x0x01101XX0X1 Před 3 lety +2

      it would be amazing if this video was made in 2021 given the fact that jack bogle died in 2019

  • @WarrenBuffettDividend
    @WarrenBuffettDividend Před 3 lety +9

    “If you’ve got a billion dollars and you’re ungrateful, you’re a poor man. If you have very little but you’re grateful for what you have, you’re truly rich.”
    Sir John Templeton

    • @InvestorCenter
      @InvestorCenter  Před 3 lety

      That is such a great quote from an investing legend

  • @diseasefire
    @diseasefire Před 3 lety +2

    If you are indexing as he suggests you should never even pay attention to the market. If you are a value investor you will end up accumulating cash in times like these for lack of opportunities

    • @diseasefire
      @diseasefire Před 3 lety +1

      @@alicesmith1016 sure man

    • @InvestorCenter
      @InvestorCenter  Před 3 lety +3

      That was a scammer. It is only me if there is a grey bar next to my name to show it is actually this channel.

    • @diseasefire
      @diseasefire Před 3 lety

      @@InvestorCenter oh thanks for the heads up

    • @alessandroalessandro3216
      @alessandroalessandro3216 Před 3 lety +1

      Quindi stai dicendo che negli anni detenendo un fondo indicizzato anche se ci sono periodi di crisi nel lungo termine si va in positivo.Giusto?

    • @diseasefire
      @diseasefire Před 3 lety +1

      @@alessandroalessandro3216 assolutamente si :) però bisogna avere grande determinazione per trattenersi dal vendere quando le cose vanno male.

  • @zeerakkhan7806
    @zeerakkhan7806 Před 3 lety +3

    Sorry, but since 2017 (last 4 years) if you invested wisely in stocks, you should have yielded better than 20% annually! If you had invested in S&P500 it alone your annual yield would be better than 10%. In line with historic trends. Almost half way through the next decade (from the date of this interview) Jeff’s analysis seems to be off track. He doesn’t seem to account for the revolutionary technology developments which have been driving the markets forward .....yes there is a tech bubble after Covid but that doesn’t detract from the long term growth due to revolutions in tech and the market

    • @rexmundi273
      @rexmundi273 Před 3 lety +3

      Valuations always return to their fair value.

    • @zeerakkhan7806
      @zeerakkhan7806 Před 3 lety +1

      @@rexmundi273 that is true, but only after a new innovation based company has fully grown, and evolved to full maturity, which might take decades to settle into a stable valuation. All that growth meanwhile is profit.

    • @HeySenthil
      @HeySenthil Před 3 lety +6

      That's because the government is printing money. Never happened at this scale. The market is artificially propped up.
      Heard this same argument in dotcom bubble. There's is no doubt we are in a bubble... when it will burst is the question. Longer the bubble goes on, more we are close to lost decade.
      Hedge your bets

    • @zeerakkhan7806
      @zeerakkhan7806 Před 3 lety

      @@HeySenthil you are correct as well, however putting the post Covid bubble aside for a moment (note that jacks interview is from 2017 before the Covid bubble , and almost half way through his prediction for the next decade), if you look at the radical change which will be brought about by genetic technologies, AI, Quantum computing, space technologies, materials and communication technologies etc., the impact to societies from these developments will be great, as well as disruptive to the existing businesses and revenue models.
      Investment in these sectors will generate growth which is mutually exclusive of any bubbles.
      But I take your point about printing money and the lost decade broadly speaking

    • @zeerakkhan7806
      @zeerakkhan7806 Před 3 lety +1

      @@HeySenthil and didn’t the dot com bubble turn to real growth driven by internet technology companies such as google, Amazon and Apple after the bubble burst?

  • @missflora8882
    @missflora8882 Před 3 lety +1

    His most important words "Trees don't grow to the sky"..
    There is a limit to everything but no limit to making money. We need limited capitalism.

    • @jumbojet8
      @jumbojet8 Před 3 lety

      Thats not what he means by that.