Icelandic Town Awaits Eruption and Possible Scenarios Discussed by Geologist
Vložit
- čas přidán 11. 11. 2023
- An update for Sun, Nov 12, 2023 from geology professor Shawn Willsey. After a quick review of the latest data, we discuss the difficult "wait and see" game. Also, I outline four possible scenarios that could play out near Grindavik before looking back at 2018 eruption in Hawaii as comparison. Stay strong, Iceland!
My Iceland videos: czcams.com/users/playlist?list...
Quake info: vafri.is/quake/
Iceland webcam now looking toward Grindavik: livefromiceland.is/webcams/fa...
NPS summary video on 2018 eruption in Hawaii: www.nps.gov/media/video/view....
Support these educational videos! Your generous support allows me to create more educational geology videos. Send support via:
PayPal: www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted...
or click on the "Thanks" button above.
or a good ol' fashioned check to:
Shawn Willsey
College of Southern Idaho
315 Falls Avenue
Twin Falls, ID 83303 - Věda a technologie
You can support my educational videos by clicking on the "Thanks" button just above (right of Like button) or by going here: www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=EWUSLG3GBS5W8
Yes but is it your own "private" Idaho?
can you cover etna as well, please? :D
Always loved this kind of science and wish I had gone down this educational road and career path. But at 58, I am way past that path. I envy your career choice, especially in these days of communication and getting such timely information.
@smokejaguarsix7757 It was just a figure of speech. Wow, the youtube police are hard at work I see! Get a life.
I predict it will erupt tonight when the CME hits.
Your professional, accurate and non-sensationalized updates are really appreciated. Keep on keeping on. From a Geographer.
Ditto … from another geographer (and new subscriber).
Thanks for watching and learning with me.
Agreed ... From yet another (physical) geographer. :)
Geography is where it's at, but geology rocks. Thanks for teaching us and keeping us posted.
😂👏
You are getting lots of props in the chat of Iceland Live. No-nonsense, no drama 🏆
Indeed! I’ve been lurking in that stream for days lol and you’ve been mentioned many times as a great no-nonsense, non alarmist site for intelligent breakdowns and information. Thanks so much!
There is no nonsense on Icelandic accounts promise
@@MaddyN999 I like to hear the facts instead of newly self-proclaimed specialists throwing junk science into chats.
Thanks for your levelheaded and informative updates. Wishing the people of Grindavik all the best and that it starts small and/or in the water so pet rescue services can go back and get the cats and other critters that got left behind during evacuation (people being taken out by others don't always have the option to bring them, and cats are frustratingly good at hiding if they think there's trouble.)
Surtsey! Imagine, 1978, my parents and I were on our way to the US, and doing a 3-day stop-over in Iceland. Flying with the Loftleidir Icelandic. Now this was not only way before 9/11, it was even long before the (terrorist) crash of the Pan-Am flight, over Lockerbie, Scotland. It was a time of relative innocence. So when approaching Iceland, and already descending to Reykjavik. my father was invited to the cockpit. And the pilots pointed to Surtsey, telling about how young it was. Unforgettable story.
Sounds like a trip to remember!
I was offered a great opportunity must have been 1994, and I sat in the "jump seat", right behind the pilot, with a window that went right down to waist level (DC-10) all the way from Labrador to 15 minutes out of AMS...dawn beginning around Iceland, all the way to England... So nice that we flew when traveling was still (mostly) a pleasure!
👍🏽🇺🇸✌🏽🖖🏽
I remember when National Geographic did a spread on Surtsey showcasing new land coming from the ocean. Fascinating!
I flew on Icelandic airlines to Iceland back in 1979. Was a wonderful experience in Iceland, though the 707 is a bit small on the inside. We where on a 1 month trip to Iceland, Luxembourg, Germany and Austria at the time.
We used to fly Icelandic air in the 70s in a world that is forever gone. Grateful to have known a kinder time.
Thank you for educating us and giving us current information as well as possible scenarios.
I regularly work in Iceland...am in Reykjavik now and hoping I can get home to UK next weekend. I've worked at both the blue lagoon and the powerplant, so what's happening is concerning. There is a lot of information around, but your updates are most useful. Thanks
It will be no problem going to the U.K next weekend
U.K. 😅 what went wrong there, place is ran by children with knifes. So unsafe
Butter knives I'm sure. Dreaming of cream buns.
Cream teas = tea (obviously) dainty sandwiches with crusts cut off, scores with jam and clotted cream and a selection of cakes 😊
Scones
First time viewer/subscriber. Thank you for explaining what's happening in terms a layperson like me can understand.
No problem. Glad this worked for you. Enjoy perusing the other videos I have.
First-time viewer here, glad I found you, been looking for solid information. I live on Oahu so I also appreciate that you're watching globally and not just Iceland. Thank you.
The ultimate/extreme example of " Time and tide wait for no man." Thank you Professor.
We had a 3.7 magnitude at Krýsuvík today. Land seems to be rising there also. Greetings from Reykjavik.
Yikes.
Thanks for the informative update.
Hoping for the best scenario to occur for the residents of Grindavik.
Keep the updates coming. 👍👍👍👍 from 🇦🇺
Many thanks for sharing your wonderful expertise and clear updates!
Our survival is in unity. To save ourselves and the planet when natural disasters are on the rise, we need to build a peaceful and safe *Creative* *Society,* where the life and well-being of every person will be the highest values.
both can be true at the same time. Matter of fact, both have to make each work.✌💜
Thank you for sharing this fascinating information with us. Your expertise is greatly appreciated.
Hi! Thank you for your updates. Really appreciate you!🇨🇦
Excellent video about the last developments on the volcano island Iceland from a nice volcanologist professor. Thanks a lot!
Thank you for all of that very well done keep up the good work
Thanks for the update
Thank you for your very informative updates.
Thank you for the updates. Watching from California.
Thanks for the channel 👍🏻
Amazing to learn this! I’ve been watching the livestream in Iceland while checking out your videos. A friend just told me you’re at CSI, an hour from me. I live in Hailey. 5800 kilometers away is the point interest. Thank you for sharing your knowledge.
Hello in Hailey.
I appreciate your efforts to keep us all informed. Iceland is my home country and i still have people there i care about. So again thank you.
Iceland 🇮🇸
Thank you!
Thank you, Shawn.
Thank you Shawn. 🌸🤙🏼
Thank you very much!
What a Great job Brother, Thanks Very Much .🤠
Spot on summary once again.
These are exactly the 4 scenarios now talked about by Icelandic specialists. Last update from 2 main experts came on local news on the main two TV stations around 19:00 local time tonight. The data is showing the surface lowering in the area northwest and north of Grindavík. The GPS point there shows more than 1.2 meter depression over the magma intrusion in this area and the experts are now preparing us for the most likely scenario being eruption just north of the town of Grindavík. The eruption could also go through the north-west part of the town. This is right now the most likely scenario.
Another scenario but much less likely is an eruption in the NE end where the original build up of magma started before the magma intrusion towards the South-west that put the town in danger.
Third option of eruption in sea is now considered very unlikely based on latest deformations data in that area.
The fourth option of no eruption is actually growing based on the latest data. The magma intrusion to southwest on Friday was a huge event and experts feared the amount of magma and pressure could be opening up multiple fissures based on this event. The further in time we move from this Friday event - the less magma and pressure is calculated in this intrusion - leading to smaller eruption and even no eruption at all.
There is actually a very tiny chance of the 5th scenario that is very unlikely now after the Friday event. But this actually happened before in the first eruption in Fagradalsfjall fault line back in 2021. The magma builtup with earthquakes started back then very closed and north of Grindavík but moved soon after to next fault line and came up as perfect tourist eruption in Fagradalsfjall. We have seen this shift towards east now as well with the original pressure buildup starting at pretty much the same spot north west of Grindavík. But this time around the shift in magma pressure moved much shorter distance to the east and is still considered to be on the same fault line in the old Sundahnjúkar fissures. The chance of magma now building up in Fagradalsfjall or even further east in Krísuvík or Trölladyngja are very unlikely after magma reaching this close to the suface in Svartsengi fault line. But there are still some very valid variables that could lead to this even tho it looks unlikely at this point in time. One well know Icelandic expert is even still talking about Eldvörp west of the current magma intrusion being viable option. The current GPS data is showing the drepression of the Eldvörp fault line around 20 cm after the Friday event.
Like you said Shawn - the variables are still so many and we are still talking if, where and when here. The best possible option is still that we wont see eruption at all this time around and the big magma intrusion last Friday will just be cooling off underground. We will hopefully know more in the morning when Icelandic experts will be going over the data from GPS points and satelites pictures to see the changes in deformation on the surface. They are expecting to give more detailed information if the magma is still rising and getting closer to the surface based on this data. The hope is at least that we wont see another Bárðarbunga eruption so close to inhabited region. But based on the early calculation of possible amount of magma causing the Friday intrusion - the amount of magma is definetly not far off. But every day and hour this magma does not get to the surface is giving us some hope of not seeing the worst possible scenario.
Significant deformation is being reported around Krísuvik, so maybe option 5 is slightly more likely now? Many thanks for your detailed comment.
Great rundown. I just had to laugh at "tourist eruption."
Thank You,Boulder,CO
Thank you, Professor 🙏🏼🌹🌿
I was studying my first year of geology in 1963 when Surtsey was formed by volcanic under sea eruption!!
Thanks!
Thanks for the info..I'll be there tomorrow,praying for peaceful environment to everyone in your country.❤
Huge Thank You. 👍🍾🍾
Thank you.
Thank you
4:10 pm nyc
Good job, very interesting. Cf Hawaii volcano, thank you.
Thank you for this!
Interesting. Thank you.
So interesting, thanks! I got to snorkel in the Kapoho tide pools around Christmas 2007. My in laws lived in pahoa and it was so sad to see all that destruction from the lava in 18.
Thank You For What You Do.
Stay Encouraged With A Smile...😅
Hi Shawn, thank you, once again
This is fascinating
New viewer here ! I was looking for infos about this soon to be volcanic eruption. I'm glad I stumbled upon your channel: as a rock climber I need to up my geology game.
I work for Ormat Technologies and have been to PGV (after the 2018 volcanic event). It is impressive to me how much lava flowed through that area and created essentially a new landscape. The power plant in Iceland is also an Ormat facility but I don't believe that Ormat owns and operates it.
Really good speculations, do contiune with your updates🙏🏼 greetings from Sweden
Fascinating.
Great update.
Very helpful...thank you🙏🙏
Glad it was helpful!
Now I feel old. I remember when Surtsey broke water. :)
Hey Shawn
Greetings from Wentworth Falls( the Blue Mountins,NSW,Australia)
Thanks for the incredible insights as to how Mother Nature is impacting Iceland .the science is amazing
Keep up the good work
Kind regards
Jimmy Andersen
Very informative
Appreciate the update Shawn!
Thank you so much for this video. I’ve been really worried about Grindávik. I’m glad it still has not erupted yet. I really hope that this is a failed intrusion.
Thank you for reporting the facts and not sensationalizing it. 🇨🇦😎🇨🇦
Thank you Professor. Sitting astride the Mid-Atlantic Ridge I would guess there are some interesting fault systems across the entire country, and I wonder if the land mass isn't getting larger by virtue of the spreading influence of the MAR.
Interesting that the three earlier eruptions sit on a line that parallels the line of current activity.
Geology hub has a basic 3d diagram in one of the older videos explaining the tectonics in the area. Like a week or two ago.
Thank you for this, good to see this explained in detail.
Great video, great information and backgroud! Thank you!
Thanks Shawn for all this information. You're doing a great job. I'm praying it gets no worse for all the people in this area.
Love the background, and thanks for sharing your insight with us!
I've been following your videos for quite awhile on this. Well done.
Shawn, thank you so much for sharing your knowledge about this scary but fascinating act of nature! We look forward to your updates!
Well done! Fyi you are being recomended on other sites comments.
Yours is by far the best english language coverage of the situation in my country. Really appreciate it.
Thank you for the updates. You the man!!❤
Good coverage as always. Still praying the threat goes away.
Oh,wow.I'm just a little ways north of you in Fairfield.
Here in S Cali, I'm a Northridge Earthquake survivor - much, much more horrifying than anyone could imagine!
Been chased uphill by lava, at Kalapana Beach, Big Island, Hawaii; chased by hurricanes, TX & LA. Chased by twin F5 tornados my family & I saw being born, in Sand Springs, OK - they went in opposite directions, killed like 81+ people, originally thought to be 1 tornado.
Any natural disaster you survive, is a good one!!
Reminds me of La Palma 2 years ago. My mother and her husband lived there for a few years and really put a lot of love into her little house with a large garden near Los Llanos. Just when they returned from a longer visit from here in Switzerland the imminent eruption started, but way up the hill. They were immediately evacuated due to the ash coming down. Then the waiting game started, the lava started to flow, it got closer and closer and at the end took a turn and buried their house under 15 meters of lava, it was heartbreaking. They are fine, they were allowed back to the house twice for 30 minutes to get the important stuff. They are back in Switzerland and after several months of mourning are now well settled and fine again. Thx for your explanations!
thanks for the update! Good job!! Shawn.
Good, informative, presentation. Thank you.
Thanks for sharing :)
Hey thanks for coming up for daily updates. Really enjoying your feeds. Greetings from the heart of Silicon Valley Ca. LEARN AND TEACH.👍 Remembering my Hawaiian visit in 74 when we saw the volcano visitor's center and swam in the Queen's bath both of which are gone to the lava now. 👋👱♀️🐈🐈🐈⬛
Following closely as due to visit Iceland in December.
I'm glad you clarified that any eruption under water wouldn't result in a situation similar to the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption (and the subsequent ash cloud disruption)
Thank you for this information. Much appreciated.
Thanks Shawn, i enjoy your updates.
We icelanders are a strange breed. Usually we argue and sqabble all day but we also have this great trait that when things get hard we group together like a family and we stick together as one. Then suddenly everything else is forgotten and we help each other without question. We open our homes and give away clothes to our neighbours.
We in Canada can be like this as well, although I would suspect you are much more so. More the case when severe weather hits. I wish you all the best!
That's the sign of a family. If this volcano erupts, look after each other 🫶
All the best...you can survive this catastrophe too! ❤ from Newfoundland!
@@aaronoshea3453 We have already started.
Is it safe to have a holiday there? Due to go in 3weeks
19:37 Helluva new sand trap!
Chatting anout Surtsey Reminded me of the adventures of Tintin "The Shooting Star" one.
Thanks so much for these great explanations!
I really enjoy your expert commentary. One question: the reports from the Icelandic Met Agency mention running models. Would you explain what the models do, what data they use as inputs, and what information they return? Also, is it possible to do seismic tomography of the growing dike using earthquake data from the seismographs available?
awesome channel.. glad I found it
You are such an amazing teacher and explain things so well!
Very helpful and informative. Thank you!
Thank you Shawn, that is some good info.
thank you for these videos!
I have been to Iceland and fell in love with the place. People so nice and trips very good. Their Lamb soup delicious. Stayed down town Reykjavik. So now so sorry to hear this news. They have 39 Volcanos. Yes the pets must be confused what's going on!! Best of luck Iceland. XX❤❤❤❤❤
"take it with a grain of salt"
Or
"Take it with a grain of K feldspar"
(Former Earth sci teacher with bad dad jokes)😂😂
For an evactuated town there are a lot of lights still one (not just street lights).
Still may solidify before reaching surface that’s the absolute best case scenario but all signs looking to be like 2018 Kilauea hoping that’s not the case and theirs not much lava output
Shared
Waiting game installed. Thanks, Shawn, for your posts!
almost at 50k nice job
Thank you very much. This is very interesting and fascinating.
It might be instructive for some viewers to show how this all connects to the mid-Atlantic rift - a spreading fault - very different from subduction zone volcanoes, etc.
Thankyou shawn love your updates