China's debt problem and the Chinese banks that will be hit first
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- čas přidán 2. 08. 2023
- From high unemployment and currency devaluation to declining exports and weak domestic consumption, China’s economy suffers from various debilitating conditions. But the most threatening attack is the local government debt meltdown (including LGFV’s) and an ensuing banking crisis. Which Chinese banks will be the first to go down?
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Everyone was fine without Xi! People were alive without Xi
China was thriving! Foreigners were fine in China! The main problem is himself!
Stop exaggerating... US is owning China money 💰💰 in trillions... Pay your debt first before nosediving in Chinese affairs
I think the CCP is done
Thanks Lei! short but to the point tonight. They are desperately trying to have people keep their money in the banks. Withdrawals need an appointment, lines 4 to 5 hours long, locking all but one door like you are going into a prison, having to be "approved" by a security guard before you can enter, the runaround just to get an appointment. How do they expect people to live? Do you take a day off work just to go to the bank? I gotta think it be easier to get paid in cash and stash it in your mattress like days of old. I got to think the CCP is fearful of a run on the banks. I like your timing tonight. This earlier time works better for me, but knowing you have viewers from around the world, it might not work for everyone.
😢😢😢😢
China is not only fearful of bank runs. They know many of its citizens are secretly dissatisfied with the direction the country is going and want to leave China. By withdrawing large amounts, the citizens are taking “China’s money” out of the country. To mitigate this, the CCP is limiting withdrawals per day, or completely draining bank accounts and issuing a useless IOU.
It is Fake.
Read reak news.
You are falling into this trap of conspiracy theory.
She has a team that do all this fabrication of false narratives.
Do your own DD.
And compare who is lying, wityh pure heit.
Ho
@@mimiphucif it’s fake how come we have video of it happening? How come internal resources have confirmed it? Why aren’t we seeing people just walk in and withdraw like they do in most countries instead of sitting and waiting their turn? Where are your facts that dispute the information she has? Next thing is you’ll be saying the disastrous flooding was all fake and that no one died or was swept away right? If you have proof she’s wrong, where is it?
I made a kind of funny video on China. It is on my channel. Clam man.
Lei is amazing! I got my family, friends, and co-workers to start watching the show.
She is associated to Falun Gong, a CULT.
Falun Gong heits the Chinese government and Chinese people.
Why? Who knows. They want power.
They want to influence and gets support from US government, of course.
The US government that heits CHina because ids progressing too fast.
Becareful with these people.
They have an agenda.
Always creates a conspiracy theory.
Theres no Facts.
Lei always has thoughtful content backed up with data and evidence.
You're staff is really getting better. Congratulations on your improving podcast.👍👍👍
Lei, excellent precise episode.
Thank you, lei.
You're channel is very good. Thank you for your effort. Deeply understood culture, explained well. Respect.
You are channel is very good.
Then you use "your effort".
What was the idea? At least one of them is correct? 🤭
Great Journalism Lei!
*THE EIGHT NOBLE ENDEAVORS*
Every freedom loving country needs people willing to form Grassroots Organizations/Movements.
1) To ensure that our politicians aren't putting the interests of the CCP above our own countries.
2) To support human rights, and preserve freedom & democracy around the world; from the CCP-PLA's undue influences and harm.
3) To elect politicians who will be on the right side of history.
4) To develop tough on China legislation.
5) To expose and weed out CCP corruption abroad.
6) To foster the fraternity of NATO Nations.
7) To stop China stealing land and resources
8) ....anything else necessary.
*This is a conversation we all need to be having with each other.*
Thank you for opening up and speaking up
I laughed so hard when you said "he has turned to the 130 year old dead Mao Zedong for guidance, and for external relations, he turned to the 100 year old Henry Kissinger for help" One is dead and the other about to die, what could go wrong?
She is demeaning a great leader.
Why ?
Because Falun Gong is not allowed to practice in China.
For Gods Sake, They are a CULT.
Who the hell wants to get close to a CULT.
Hell No!
😅😂lol
So we now have dozens and dozens of mini-Enrons in China now! The country is in a total mess, all happening with Winnie the Pooh steering the Chinese boat.
Excellent report, very informative.
Thank You Lei, we must understand that the CCP will never hurt itself or take any blame or responsibility. The debt issues will be absorbed by banks, customers and investors ( NO BAIL OUT ). Runs on the bank will be prevented ( by armed police ). It's a LOSE / LOSE / LOSE / LOSE scenario for Chinese citizens. So, it is an unsustainable economic policy that will end how ?
Like any other house of cards, it will all eventually collapse.
Its going to be sudden
@@DDDrumpf 4 month old CCP botty
Yes, the tax payer bails out the banks in the U.S. too, it's a crime that should mean doin' time.
As I watched videos of the typhoon in China and Bejing was under water, people washed away in their cars, I was horrified. I remember Xi bragging about their big conference room and compared to the G7 meeting at one round table in a regular room. He doesn't get it 😖
Relationships are far more important than grandeur. I wonder if Xi is more concerned of typhoon damage to his conference room in Bejing or the dear people suffering from disasterous loss of lives, homes, cars, everything 🥺💔
Growing rich fast, building big, fast, and oversized had become the economic maxim in China last 3 decades.
They had become China's worst social and economic problems: the very thing they sought will destroy them.
Lebanese banks showed the way to get back the government loans by confiscating the people's money. Already banks in China even in HK making very hard to withdraw money, you need to queue several hours to access an ATM machine.
Very good analysis! Thanks for your hard work 👍
If banks make losses it should be deducted from equity - retained earnings not liabilities in the form of deposits
Are we being told an alternate story of China's growth? Like every American news outlet speaks as if China has achieved zenith of power and human wellness, and so rest of us have to follow the suit or at least get competitive.
No. China is built on decades of too much debt.
It's leaders didn't understand and still don't. There is no Santa Claus granting wishes. Someday you have to pay what you borrow back one way or another
Thank you for your report
I have a funny kind of video out just now on my channel, clam man. It is about China and its shills.
Good analysis. Thanks
Very insightful
Your easy explanation is delightful to follow
Thank you
The insane amount of flood damage isn't gonna help matters, is it.
The Era of the "Rolling Loan (Stone) Gathers No Loss (Moss)" has come to an END!
Thanks Lei, much appreciated
Print more money!!! 😂😂😂
I just watched the replay. Thank you.
well done Lei, thank you
Good evening Lei. Very interesting commentary in this one. Quality listening. Thank you.🔜👊🇺🇲
Just a conspiracy theory.
And spinning narratives.
Thats evil.
"Ripple Effect" may be an understatement
That is frightening
Renminbi will soon become toilet paper and the resulting severe economic depression will lead to a "revolutionary" environment where anything is possible, including government overthrow.
How do I tell Xi Jin Ping that I can and ready to help him.😂😂
Great video Lei.....I love the shorter version
It's 8:18pm Eastern. The way it's looking financially, it's a race to find out who will collapse last for the bragging rights.
Not just financial collapse, collapse in general.
Good one Lei. You should've put a joker's hat on Xi Jin Ping's head🃏
Lei - thank you for the shorts, 10 min, and ling chat vids. I know it is a lot of work but it really is handy. Lei can you do a program about how bad and widespread the flooding is and how much it will cost to repair. I would be interested if there was a way to even guess how much of China's massive environmental investments were lost to corruption. Why is China building so many new coal plants if they are investing so much into green projects. I would like to be able to have some grasp on the numbers and outcomes of the investment, the shortfalls identified and how much was lost to corruption. Looking at that new high speed rail train it is very easy to see that money was saved by not meeting the specified depth for the concrete base - this will cause fatalities on a high speed train, and the train will no longer be able to go high speeds.
The best defense against communist authoritarian dictatorship is to strengthen democracies from corrupting influences and nepotism. It takes an active and concerted effort of the people, to ensure that our democratically elected politicians are truly representing our interests.
We must also address what hostile communist countries are doing, both domestically and abroad. Democratic Nations must stand together against their lawlessness in defense of global security, human rights, and enforce International Law.
@CHINESE_PRIDE: "The best defense...". OK, sounds good. Now how are you going to do that? Both sides are telling their people that they are the ones who know what is best for you.
And both sides are constantly telling false information to make themselves look good.
PS: when I was in college (1971) we had a saying that summed up the situation. "We have met the enemy and they is us".
@@fritzsmith3296
We would have to be speaking about a particular country for context. It's one thing to make the generalization that I did.
But your comment is another matter entirely.
Perfect one … keep it up
There has gotta be a run on the banks soon! Only problem is the banks are refusing to pay out already. People who took their money out and took of for other parts of the world should be ok!
Can you imagine the amount of people who are going to be hurt by this? it has to be a huge number!
3:45 Ponzi-nomics.
Thank you and for the algorithm as well
Remember Kissinger carpet bombing Loa & Vietnam civilians in 74, even though the US had lost and already withdrawing?
Xi considers Henry a friend.
@@DDDrumpf It amazing how people who have committed the most horrific atrocities are allowed to die a natural death, in total freedom, and revered to this day, by the State
That's why many other countries are starting to insulate themselves from China to avoid being caught up too much in a contagion. Not avoid, not minimize
Loving the thumbnail ;) ! ! ! !
Xi’s hubris is catching up to him.
Stealing the peoples money.
Just wanted to let you know I love your work....I trust you not the CCP 😊
All those glorious cities filled with beautiful buildings and transit systems. It seems unbelievable that all of that could have been done in 25 years but it was. But at what cost? At some point these projects have to be economically viable.
Of concern the hidden local government debt. How much of this has been securitized and marketed to western banks and investors? It seems like the subprime mortgage crisis all over again. A world crisis worse than 2008?
Wonderful Lei: who is Xi dressed up to resemble in your thumbnail? It's hilarious but I cannot identify the person.
It's "Uncle Xi" the loveable family gangster
Barbie
Very nice video
I love this thumbnail of XiXi the adorable cuddly dictator !!!!
Is bad loans to profit ratio a thing to indicate doom and gloom? I would imagine the ratio should be bad loans to total loans.
That makes sense of Chinas backflipping on Australian barley import tariffs of 80%. They cant afford the baseless tariffs that make goods much more expensive to the Chinese economy.
Very few information come out from great Wall. I like all videos
With big fatty cheques and smartness they will succeed
The Premier countdown was beautiful. How can I get more of that?
the thing . .....if someone has read( the Chinese economic demise) it said 20 years ago that Chinese economy will collapse soon today it's 2024 baby still China stands strong
😂😂😂👍Amazing
Li Xunlei? Sounds like I finally found someone who has the same given name as mine! You know how rare is that? 😊
The audio stops after a few seconds when watching this episode on my TV. If i watch on my phone, it's ok.
And yet again I currently read an article in Foreign Affairs stating all the big financial institutions, that are all still talking of an economic growth in China. They all including the author of this article are now slighly reducing the growth number from somewhere around 5% to 4-4.5%, but nevertheless talking about growth. Is this because they all are still heavily invested in China and if they were to speak openly of a recession and publicly announce negative percentages it would seriously hurt their own investments?
Yes. Smart observation.
That's the PR necessary for time to get out and or get the desperate greater fool to send money.
It's talk while the Western banks plan is to sell short everywhere they can.
It will be decades before they lend to China once this is over.
Don't cry for me Argentina will be Xi's new favorite song.
The ccp is doing massive propaganda boosting on many platforms. Their economic figures are heavily doctored and can be spun in a positive way.
The big question is what effect China's economic implosion will have on other G20 countries. Including China, the G20 accounts for 80% of global GDP.
Why ask a person who is associated to a CULT and heits China and the 1.4 Billion people ?
It is absurd.
Xi helps to raise the living standard of chinese people.
China government is no perfect, but they do a thousand percent more for their people than for example the US , with hundred of thousand homeless.
So it means that Lei wants to see China government collapse so that the Chinese people an be under a western system, then the US
could control them.
And what US wants for China?
US wants China to be in developing mode in Perpetuity, forever.
US doesn't want a developed and progressive china.
Thats how dark their soul is. Same is Lei.
Wishing bad to 1.4 Chinese people.
Horrible and evil soul.
G20 will be fine adapt and overcome. Thevmain thing is china goes down and thats worth any short term adjustment.
@@fc7424 G7, G20, G infinite, .. are desperate to contain China progress.
If China is in deep trouble, then don't need to do any mafia-style tactics to crush china economy.
China is collapsing anyways, right ?
Wrong.
You will have a nuclear country with a famine that will make the era of Mao look like Thanksgiving Dinner. You will have tens of millions of people who HAD wealth and knew what it felt like, suddenly are poor and homeless. The CCP has already been prepping its population with the idea that there is an outside enemy causing their misery.
NOW... they merely have to point to one... with nukes.
If the newly poor middle-class starts striking first at the local thugs, then police, then leaders, then maybe there is a different outcome. Otherwise, the CCP desperately needs a scapegoat and it cannot project power, so it only has nukes.
@@fc7424 Nope.
Actually, China's banking sector is not that well integrated with the rest of the world, especially in banking. This is nothing like the situation in 2008 in the west with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the crisis in investment banks. In the west, these were all tightly integrated. With the capital controls in China, it is difficult to get too far involved with Chinese banks. In addition, financial institutions and companies in the west have highly diversified investments. Just to give a couple of examples, start with Evergrande's total debt and the amount of that in dollar bonds. The dollar bond amount is tiny. Another example is what happened with the Russian sanctions. Many large companies closed down in Russia, but there are none that I can think of that were materially affected in the short to medium term, and certainly not in the long term. China also limits ownership of foreign companies in China, with further limits exposure.
Ma'am, just wanted to ask for knowledge perspective, do your countries bank have the concept of "Non Performing Assets"? please enlighten on the compliances
Well Lei most analysts are failing to understand who holds the debt inside China. That happens to be largely the retirement incomes of people in China. So if those debts go belly up you've suddenly go a whole lot of retirees and those nearing retirement with no funds to retire on. What that means is that this debt has to get paid one way or the other.
As for debt outstanding inside we can kind of estimate that. We know that Chinese households hold 40 trillion in savings which would imply that there is a significantly higher amount then that in debt.
If the CCP allows these LGFV to fail it ultimately will lead to systemic collapse of the Chinese banking System and that will likely lead to the collapse of the CCP.
I'm sure if they have problems we'll just rebuild the wall again with people.
There is no sound on your video when I watch from the cable on TV here in the Philippines. However on my laptop with VPN (now placed in Washington DC) there is no problem. Maybe just a minor flaw somewhere in connections. Please stay safe. Great information. You do a great job. Respectfully
It's not sovereign debt, so they can just default without risking any of Chinese property abroad. They can also just do a bailout / print yuan to make whole the lenders who are Chinese citizens (an approach which is often taken by the West, and China doesn't even have inflation problem). The only reason they haven't done so yet is that they probably still manage to borrow more than they are paying back. Sure, the credit ratings will crater, but who cares? The US and the EU are determined to cut/forbid investment in China anyways.
So, what will be the most profitable stock to short?
Jack Ma might be the solution to this problem.
Is it just me or there is a problem with the sound? I can't hear anything.
@Lei’s Real Talk Great analysis and reporting on the looming China crisis. I have some more thoughts on how the impending doom in China will bring positive change to American Financial Markets. The “middle men” are often the equivalent of CCP thieves in government, but technology changes could change the market dynamics.
So true, can’t wait for those greedy individuals join the unemployment line, better yet, in jail
She is a Falun Gong individual. Becareful.
Do your research.
She gets paid to smear China.
Banking collapse?
It is in the US.
US owes China about USD1 trillion.
👌👍🇨🇦
No sound.
Forget about the debt crisis, Xi Jinping has 4 identical large microphones in front of him when he speaks. Even the sun roof of his limo has 4 microphones. This shows the world how powerful China is. 🎉😂
love your cover page ... first time xi look hipster !
I'm nothing but a dumb, jar headed steering wheel holder, otherwise known as a truck driver....
YET, even I could see, way back in the ending part of the 90's that the West GREEDILY hitching up to COMMUNISM WAS A SUPER DUPER DUMB IDEA...🎤💣🔥💨💯🤷🏾♂️
JinpingHeimer
Oh what a gem I foiund in this channel!
Doesn't happen too often, but the algorithm hits in like 1/100 by now 😂🤣
Subscribed and watching more now .....
💥💥R E V O L U T I O N💥💥
The sound is gone after Xi is mentioned in the video beginning. Has the CCP hacked your video Lei?
perhaps the ccp should divide into 4 democracies with around 300 million people per democracy. even America has a hard time controlling our own democracy with 330 million citizens.
The progress of a nation should adopt to its people’s ability to absorb the impetus to progress. That is, by pumping money into the country’s economy the resulting apparent progress is not the people’s progress. It is somewhat like injecting performance enhancing drugs into the body of GDR’s athletes. Most of them in later years suffered from health problems. China has a command economy by CCP. The apparent economic miracle of China appears to have grossly overtaken the people’s ability to absorb this miraculous progress. On the other hand, the slow & manageable progress of India suits the sluggish socio-political ability of the enormously diverse people. India did not receive the trillions of dollars of investment from the west in the 90s & 2000s. India had to stay within its own ability to fund its progress through its trial & error democratic governance. The people & the governance are learning hand in hand in the country’s modest rate of progress.
As the US Treasury attempts to sell T-Notes to support a GDP that lingers around 1%,
China has about 20% of long term Bonds that may be ready to pay off.
If China starts dumping Bonds and the US Treasury has difficulty selling theirs,
what happens to the US Dollar?
The US ran into Currency issues in 1967 as the cost of Colonial Conflicts,
thousands of miles from American ports.
Are we noticing another crisis similar to financing a conflict
in Vietnam?
Cleanest dirty shirt in the hamper. Agree that US fed has expanded money supply beyond reasonable limits. They should have discipline to increase rates, but are politically sensitive, so won't.
@@oldernu1250 The use of FIAT Dollars has enabled a delay in the Payment for Exploitation.
The Currency Crisis of 1967 that demonstrated that the US could not afford to support the exploitation of Vietnam, seems to have returned?
The Nixon Administration substituting Funny Money for Cash,
appears to have run it's coarse?
The Rockefeller Bros ability to manipulate Currency
as their Errand Boy Kissinger, delivered the concept to the Nixon Administration,
may not have allowed the Anaconda Company to exploit resources in Vietnam.
The Chase Bank appears to have thrived.
Both were Rockefeller Companies.
Think about that for a while......
Then look up Corruption?
I really wonder what was going on inside his head like u ppl suffered a lot from the war against japan / korea why do u want them to suffer more ??
㊙️🕊️🕊️🕊️㊙️㊙️🕊️🕊️㊙️㊙️🕊️㊙️㊙️🕊️🕊️㊙️hongkong taiwan japan country🈹㊙️🈹㊙️🈹㊙️🈹㊙️㊙️🈹🈹🕊️🈹🈹🕊️🈹🈹🕊️🈹🕊️🈹🕊️
Bad assumption! There really is no concept of “ownership“ in China under the CCP. The CCP can move money from any party to any other party. However, it wishes without worrying about the concept of “ownership“. The CCP will decide who needs to suffer and who will be satisfied. The CCP will not collapse because of debt because they can repudiate any debts they want to at any time.
America has 158Trillion debt not 32.1T. They found out yesterday.
Wumao triggered here ☝️
Excellent vlog. I love your slides, photos and stats. Very professionally produced.
Back in 1935 award winning Professor Simon Kuznets warned that continual GDP growth was unsustainable, unfair, and ecologically unsafe, so it’s surprising that governments across the world have tried boosting GDP growth, growth, growth, through endless borrowing. This policy has only increased inflation and resulted in putting workers under ever increasing pressure to work harder, for longer hours and for lower rates of pay, whilst the rich gain wealth 🫢🇨🇳💲
I believe you are Fortunately mistaken in your belief that Chinese banking collapse will be contagious ,, because no one is crazy enough to have connected there banking system with the Chinese banking system
For sure the US banking system is safe😅
Anyone heard about the pre CCP China debt to the US? The current outstanding balance is above $1 trillion. Is this one of the CCP's concerns? I understand similar debt to the UK has been settled by the CCP but not the amount they owe to the US.
To whom is the trillions of dollars collosal debt owed? It cant be the US as it is in debt to trillions as well. Can you please try and be honest. We all know who the creditors are, so try and give an honest assessment for once.
If you want extremely in-depth academic information regarding what countries like Russia and China are doing; then I highly encourage using these useful resources, which have extensive reports:
- Amnesty International
- Atlantic Council
- Carnegie Endowment
- Cato Institute
- Center for New American Security
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Foundation for Defense of Democracy
- Helsinki Commission
- Heritage Foundation
- Hudson Institute
- Human Rights Watch
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Royal United Services Institute
- Stimpson Center
- Wilson Center
Are you going to cover the floods in Beijing and surrounds? Has the mandate of Heaven been revoked for China's current leader?
Hi Lei
I always enjoy your videos. I'm watching this scenario unfold since a long time. For sure China is the worst place in all of this but the debt problem of the west is also really bad. We are all in this boat which will completely sink this decade, On top we have the unfolding climate disaster and politicians who have the lowest possible IQ. It has to happen as sad as it is.
America and the West do not have such problems as China. For sure the debt is bloating and often to feed very strange and unneeded projects. However, most of western economies are market-oriented and thus much more flexible. They are much less managed by governments although the trend of government involvement is getting stronger.