What Happens When a Country Defaults on Its Debt?
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- čas přidán 15. 09. 2022
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Country defaults have been in the news lately, but what actually happens when a government can no longer pay off their debts? We dive into this strange topic in today's video.
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This channel is for education purposes only and does not constitute financial advice - Richard is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Please seek out a registered advisor if you require assistance (while Richard is a registered portfolio manager at WDS Investment Management, he does not provide advice through The Plain Bagel, which is not affiliated with his employer).
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Interesting. I always thought that debt collection is what Santa did the other 364 days of the year to pad his Christmas fund.
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How to colonise a country in the modern world:
1. Lend money to a failing country
2. (Optional: if it doesn’t fail) silently trigger their economic collapse
3. Become the big brother and say “it’s ok, you don’t have to pay me back, but this time lemme do the work”
4. Bring in your state-owned corporations to fill in their industry
5. Increase in economic productivity
6. Citizens gain your trust
7. Overthrow government
8. Repeat
Exactly what happened in my Serbia, only economic collapse was not silent. you don't even have to be silent if you have the mass media to push the narrative
Hmm, sound like a certain country...
Send.in.the.debth.collector.
Just don't be a third world country managed by extremely corrupt kleptocrats
Obviously the country should just get a second job, deliver pizzas on the weekend, needs to have a garage sale, and just use the debt snowball method to pay off their debts and build the psychology of being fiscally responsible
Lol
Cancel netflix 😂
Cut down on that avocado toast
Countries these days have no work ethic. /s
actually, those methods (get a second job = raise taxes, fiscally responsible = cut military/welfare spending, snowball = pay off the highest rate loan first) all would be sound advice.
Not sure the Russian default would be a perfect example, as it was mainly due to sanctions by the western world more like a forced default. Whereas Sri Lankan default is more like a true default as it was a direct cause of the country's poor economic performance and management.
The Sri Lankan crisis was immediately precipitated by factors beyond their control, though (spike in food/fuel prices due to war).
The Russians made their own bed, and now it sucks to lie in it.
Sure, they thought it would go better for them: they'd roll over 🇺🇦 in 3 days, and it would all be fait accompli before any serious sanctions were imposed - but "they fought back too effectively! 😭" isn't a very compelling argument.
I think here sl govt was unprepared for uncertainty while russian govt being resource rich could still pay it off. Besides both countries were/are unhappy or unsatisfied with their government.
Why did they get the sanctions? Because they went to war. Did they know they will get sanctioned if they go to war? Hell yes. It was not forced, Russia knows being sanctioned and defaulting is where they're going to.
If you think for yourself and come up with a rational conclusion that goes against what 'muh research' says, you're going to be shouted down by zealous fanboys of these finance channels. I once said that international factor wasn't one of the five factors in the FF5 on Ben Felix's channel. It's true, but I still got lots of hate for that, lmao
I was just going to say the same thing. The Russian default occurred because their funds were frozen due to sanctions. Not a true default, they had the money to pay.
0:26 You actually can. Russia did not default on its debt, it was not allowed to pay instead. Russia pushed a money transaction and it had enough money but the transaction was declined by the Western banking system. In order to pay back, Russia suggested that the borrowers get paid in Rubbles directly bypassing any artificial restriction. So, everybody who wanted their money back probably got them directly from Russia.
Yeah just good luck going into Russia, getting your money, and then leaving the country with all of your limbs, fingers, and/or genitals.
@@dannybeane2069 we are talking about institutional loans. Some foreign institutional investor bought Russian debt, they can get payments directly from Russia avoiding western infrastructure. There is no reason to go to Russia to accomplish it.
But how does the Rubble equate to the dollar in the debt repayment?
@@David-fj5lz that’s why Russia and China and many countries are ditching the dollar. They no longer want to be held responsible for the US poor financial decisions. They are introducing their reserve currency in august while the us will default on its debt in June (if they don’t raise the debt ceiling)
But what use do rubles have outside of Russia?
IMF are financial sharks. The miracle is that countries are actually able to recover after getting IMF """help""".
Hey Richard, just want to say thanks for all the genuine videos you have been sharing for the past! Appreciate the way you present the topics with your professionalism, not overcomplicated layman term, and with a sprinkle of bagel humor. Keep up the great work!
From Srilanka, thank you for covering this,
Hope all of you will be alright, mate. Stay strong!
don't die
I was in Sri Lanka 2 years ago.. Beautiful place! I hope everything turns around for you guys..
I have the best debts in the world!
Every single one of them is Outstanding!
🥁🥁⭐️
Haha!
The World Bank and the IMF both started from the Bretton Woods conference in the 40’s, which came about because the U.S dollar, as a result of war-fleeing European gold, had so many gold reserves backing it. Inevitably, however, inflationary Keynsian policies-which the Bretton Woods Agreement was founded on-plagued the U.S dollar and, much like Britain during WW1, the U.S defaulted on its gold IOUs and Nixon went off the gold standard in the 70’s.
The IMF and the World Bank are essentially American and fully backed by dollars. So, when you control the global reserve currency-and with it, all these international funds/banks (e.g., IMF and the World Bank)-it begs the question: what happens when the biggest debtor of all defaults?
worldwide recession
"oopsie woopsie we did a fucky wucky
also, we have like a million soldierd so chill the fuck out"
something like that I imagine
Financially, the waste hits the air mover.
@@got2kittys society will essentially get the FUBAR treatment
Fleeing european gold is one hell of a way to say looted German gold by Germany's opponents.
Thanks a lot! I would love a more in-depth video about this topic, like a history of government defaulting, why it happened, etc
Can you do a follow up video on the implications to stocks and bonds held by investors (in both debtor and creditor nations) when a country defaults?
Thumbs up if you'd like this too.
I’d imagine the situation is a tough one 😂
That'd be pretty interesting.
I hope buddy or somebody for that matter covers the topic.
The answer to your question would depends on how the country plans to get out of the default. There are three major ways in which a country can do that:
1. Get bailed out by other countries, this is usually coupled with austerity measures and some debt negotiation with creditors (Greece for example)
2. Print out money to pay the debt (USA will likely resort to this if it comes to it)
3. Refuse to pay the debt and risk unable to sell any further bonds in the future (Russia is kinda doing this right now)
As for the consequences:
1. Stocks usually goes down due to lower government spending and higher taxes. Bonds prices goes down because most of them will not be paid back on their full face value. A lot of hedge funds actually made huge profits buying Greek bonds during the crisis and sell the bonds as the Greek economy starts to stabilise.
2. This would interesting one because money printing would lead to inflation. Which could either rocket boost stocks or make it goes down depends on the % of inflation. Bonds prices would go down because new bonds issued would have higher interest rates.
3. Stocks prices will depends on whether the economy is self-sufficient. If it’s not then stocks prices will collapse. If the economy is self-sufficient (little to no international trade), then stocks would likely remain the same. As for bond prices, the assumption would be that it is zero as government is not paying back debt and no one is willing to lend government money.
Russia one was a bit silly of an example, as their debt is in a limbo, they could pay it but the recipent doesn't want it.
This, Russia is willing and able, it's US shenanigans at play.
But it's climbing, shenanigan or not
@@dean_l33 What is?
They want to pay in the wrong currency lol. That doesn't count.
@@potatofuryy No they wanted to pay in original currency but it was frozen. THen they wanted to pay in rubles, they didn't want it neither
Pretty much comes down to it that the most you can do is to not lend anymore to that party ever again. You still lost your money and they can live happily ever after if they can manage without your cooperation.
What's needed? Liquid cash. Everyone only has credit. If you have stacks of cash, you can capitalize on everyone's credit. A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying.
Cash can be king , but it depends on how much you have. I.E- if you have 300,000 cash when the house market crash occurs you will have a LOT more opportunities VS many others especially when people get foreclosed.
When the stock market rebounds, many investors may come to regret not investing in the red today. It's possible that this pricing will never be seen again. If you have a fantastic vision for it, there is always opportunity in the midst of chaos.
I'm sure the idea of a Investment -Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by investopedia found out that demand for Invstment-Managers sky-rocketed by over 41.8% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've raised over CAD580k within 18months from an initially stagnant portfolio worth CAD150K which was devoid of dividend stocks. These are the high-volume traders.
As a finance guy I happened upon this thread to see if you were legit or full of ship. Your advice here is very solid. It’s actually the same playbook I’ve been using and have been telling my family to use. Nice work! Trying times are ahead, and good personal financial management will be very important to weather the storm. It would be very a innovative suggestion to look out for Financial Advisors like "Alysa Rebecca Reinoehl'' , who can help shape up your portfolio.
I just looked up Alysa Rebecca Reinoehl online and researched her accreditation. She seem very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Fin-market goals.
Great video. Very informative. Keep up the good work.
Me, an Argentinian guy watching this: rookies
How is Javier Milei holding it down now?
The new delivery is, as always fresh and warm! Exactly the way I love my plain bangles!
Really surprised me when you used the rare 'денюжку' instead of 'деньги') almost nailed the pronunciation too! Great video as always
Really? I thought it was awful
@@timtrainage ye Im russian and I didn't understand what he said
Sri Lanka politicians are living cushy in America while the nation is in turmoil.
love the delivery
Great vid. easy to digest. Cheers!
Nice video Richard! Hope all is well
lol, "dingey, pojalsta" is more anglicized pronunciation of "money, please" in Russky
The story about unregistered swimming pools in Greece goes to illustrate how selfish the Greek population was and how incompetent the government was at collecting those taxes.
Yeah, how dare they no give their hard worked money so the public machine could eat 30% of it and the absolutely rotten Greek politicians another 20%.
@@robertmusil1107 At least France paid for the machine learning software to identify them. Greece just spent all their time holding elections.
@@GeorgeWashingtonLaserMusket What if everyone starts to think like that? Then nobody wants to pay taxes, sales taxes, highway fees, etc. Just pay what you are supposed to instead of trying to trick the system. There is enough for everyone to go around if you aren’t so greedy.
@@Max-ve5tu
This video create made a mistake here.
In Greece,federal taxes pay for spending, the Greek govt does not have a central bank that creates Euros, and they have no power at all over ECB that does.
That is completely different to the US, where FEDERAL taxea do not pay for govt spending.
Think about it.
It is VERY VERY different when a Govt borrows in a foreign currency it does not create, vs a currency it does create & their central bank cannot say no. Then its "borrowing money from yourself in a currency you create".
See The Deficit Myth by Stephanie Kelton for more info
so they spent money to suck more money? Boy let me tell you
Russia was forced into default, Sri Lanka might be able to settle/restructure the debt with Japan.
Hello giving out 5-10eth be part of the 5 lucky persons
Russia had the money to pay its debts, but the money was frozen/stolen and the media declared that they "defaulted".
Lender: Hey Russia! You owe us money!
Russia: Yes. Please give me your wire instructions
Lender: We don't do business with Russians!
Absolute Clown World- brought to you by the Democrats
@@elonmusk8673 gimmw and dont ask for money 😂
Good video. Actually informative and the ad really did not bother me at all. Well done. I actually learned something.
Thanks for covering this situation. Highly appreciate the new delivery method too 👏
Interesting video!
Nice new setup!
The video topic is very insteresting and well made, but it would have been awesome if you covered more previous examples of countries defaulting
I am Greek and I approve this video.
GERMANYYYYY
Greece needs to get a second job and stop being poor
greece messed up when it abandoned its currency to join the Euro
@@grimaffiliations3671 i agree
Very good video.
I 😓always wondered about the United States and the trillion dollar of debt it owes. The U.S. raised the debt ceiling to avoid a default. There is also the federal reserve which prints more money 💵 to lend out to the government which may be a Ponzi scheme at an international level🫡🧨. 🤔 there are other factors contributing to a countries default on 💸 debt.
?
@@jwdory "way out" implies we're in trouble. We're not. The national debt is just a stockpile of US treasuries so it could just as easily be called the national savings account. And it's nonsense to say the US is close to insolvency
@@jwdory No we're not. Schweikert is a politician with little understanding of how the federal government operates as a currency issuer
Very interesting video
very informative. always wondered about this issue.
cool post!
💪
Another great video as always. I've learned so much from you. Top 5 favorite youtuber easy!
HAHAH hearing you speak Russian at 0:29 деньги пожалуйста was amazing thank you so much for that lmao
Good video
Great shirt.
Love the new format!
He moves his hands and arms so much. He must be Italian
In Greece we had to fid out all that information the hard way a few years ago...
That Russian needs a bit more practice.
The video was the perfect length of time for me to wash dishes and learning something new.
Just found you....like your content
Thank you for all of your videos; they have taught me a lot. I'm looking for an explanation. Why are governments in debt in the first place? They have all the resources! I understand that printing more money to pay it off is not a viable option. but I cannot figure out how it works.
Can you please elaborate on this, or do you have any specific videos that you can recommend?
Thank you very much.
Based on my limited understanding, It is because getting a loan is much easier and faster than collecting taxes.
I think a big part is that government deficit spending is very popular now - look at the US. Governments only tend to balloon in size unless something drastic happens. When you can borrow money to an almost limitless degree, and getting re-elected depends on how much you can promise to spend, it’s no wonder they borrow insane amounts.
If you look at the history of government budget deficits, this era of insane borrowing is really a recent thing. The US for example had a budget surplus as recently as 2000 (not zero debt, just not adding to the debt). Previously, massive budget deficits really only showed up around the world wars. Now Covid has resulting in a crazy amount of spending but it’s not just that, we’ve been running at a significant deficit for the last 20 years or so.
I think government borrowing is attractive for the same reason personal borrowing is: you get the money now. And when your interest rate is super low and there’s not much your creditors can do if you default, plus almost anyone will lend you money because you have a “perfect” credit score (despite only ever borrowing more and more), it kind of makes sense. If you could borrow $10M right now at 1% and you pay it back in 200 years or whenever you want, and if you default your creditor has to come pick a fight with your entire town to get anything back… wouldn’t you do it??
@@ThomasVWorm Make sense.Thanks for explanation, :)
@@ThomasVWorm yes makes sense but eventually you do have to do the "tax to pay back your debt" part 😁 you could still run a budget surplus doing this by just paying back your debt in the same year, or relatively quickly anyway. If you only ever borrow the debt will obviously just keep growing. And if you stretch it out over decades then a different generation of citizens end up paying the debt that the previous generation received a lot of the benefit for.
@10:33
Greece: Hey guys, I have an idea!
DEPENDS! Is THAT country the 'reserve currency'? Well then, we're SCREWED!
Didn't the Russians default because it wasn't possible to pay after being kicked out of swift? That's technically a default....but what happens?
Lending rates go up, as people see the investment as riskier. This makes loans harder to access.
True, Russia has the money to pay, but the US just blocks all transactions.
Yes, regardless of the reasons that lead to non payment, lending becomes riskier and therefore more expensive.
I think it has more to do with freezing Russia owned currency reserves outside of Russia. I think most of Russias currency reserves are outside Russia
Russia will borrow less from the west and more from China, pushing them further towards China therefore long term strengthening China.
Mostly algorithm comment, but also format is good 👍
There is no country that has benefited from IMF action unless there were drivers similar to Belgium.
Biggest issue is that these saviours don't just drive sanitation of the country's organisation but force the sellout of expensive infrastructure that is usually of national interests. This is where the sovere6 principal is thrown out of the window.
For example, Greece had to privatise all airports, some of them being military bases as well. Also the haircut was virtual. Practically the debt was moved in the future with some Troika creative economics.
But I like your relative impartial approach in the topic. Probably you've already read it, but anyhow consider reading "the shock doctrine" for the IMF history.
Commenting from the defaulted economy :D
Which is the book he is referencing @4:03 ?
I was listening while driving and that car horn when you did the Canada thing scared me. I thought someone's blowing horn at me!
Get home safe lol
Same !!! Unpleasant lmao
3:27 the country version of *ah long* from Malaysia and Singapore
The way you said that russian phrase, doood that was so bad, like literally the worst but in a way, kinda holds itself up there
My uncle Joe gets asked a lot, as he is a banker, and we heard him say a hundred time .. What happens when a loan is in default ? Three possible outcomes .. You get all the money back, or you get none of your money back, or you get something in between ..
They should have aggressive collection agents call Putin constantly.
Everything is a mess..
I wouldn’t make a comparison between Russian “default” with the SriLankan one. Russia had the money however due to sanctions were not able to give the payment in US dollar.
True but Russia still didn’t pay so for the owners of the debt russia defaulted.
A default is a default.
@@kvikende not really. Most countries would disregard a default that's outside of a nation's control. Especially if they're an exporter. Like Russia
@@josephhoward4697 well, those are two different kinds of default: a technical one and an actual one
@@josephhoward4697 who decided the default? rating agencies? how trustworthy are these historically, because i know at least 5 cases in which countries sent delegation with bribes in order to change their countries ratings... usually the rating only changes once the government is not aligned with US/UK warmongerers and color revolutionaries...
also point of clarification: Russian defaulted mostly because the payment was not receivable from the sanctions not because they are not capable of paying, whether they were NOT willing to pay however is another matter
Dude, they invade countries because they want to, i'm pretty sure they won't pay if given the chance.
@@dundun8640 so again, in my comment, i stated clearly, whether they have the willingness to pay is completely different matter, also ABSOLUTELY different matter is the political decision to invade or wage war, there are no correlation other than the resulting sanctions in my point,
my scope is strictly from economical point of view, not from the point of any other countries being invaded, or the point of view and decision of a madman to wage a war
even if they wanna pay, they can't and now the sanction is being turned upside down infact now you got to use their currency if you want gas, so, BUGGER LOL
Would be curious as to what a creditor can do to enforce collection on debt, particularly with emerging market borrowers. Sounds like there's not much other than impact their sovereign credit rating and refuse to lend anymore money
you should do a video about "simply wall st", I want to know what you think about it, do you think its reliable or just ya know, not reliable
Russia didnt default beacuase it didnt have the money, Russia defaulted because it literally couldn't make its payments because of the sanctions you know.
Russia default on it's debt? With the circumstance that was behind it that has to be an outright insult.
See? We make the countries accountable. We need to make individuals accountable as well.
what's with the noises in the background?! other than that, great vid
Sri Lanka government defaulted,,
the culprit dynasty still enjoying life like usual
It wasnt just the. It was the ill advise of the world bank and economists like stiglitz to go all organic. Always remember - in most events, the US or at least some of their elite - has a hand.
The dynasty actually tried to avoid a default. There were many NGOs funded by George Soros, that spoke infavor of a default.
Why can't a new government refuse to pay back the debts incurred by a prior government. Considering it was not them who took the loans but a prior government couldn't they claim they don't owe it back?
Define new government. France counts every administration as a government.
And no one knows. For instance, Communist China claims to own everything formally belonging to the Republic of China except its debt. However, the Russian Federation accepted ownership of all debts of the USSR
Argentina: First time?
I always thought that Greece could at least pay back some of it's debt with clay. I'm sure the Germans would like some Aegean holiday islands.
This is actually very close to what has happened. The greek government was forced to put all valuable land and public wealth (as the water supply service) to a big fund and then sell it to foreign corporations (mostly German) to pay out its debt.
@Babd lmao
@Babd Ah yes, let's not learn from our history. Never mind the fact that the "victors" plundered Germany's wealth after WWI (reparations), directly enabling the environment that enabled the 3R to come into power in the first place.
Besides, it's not like the Greeks are any strangers to plunder. They were a world power once...
@@Lawrence330 Return the Great star of Africa while you're at it.
@@Lawrence330 Well, Germany kind of deserved it. That tends to happen when you miscalculated the posibility of you losing a war you voluntarily decided to participate in.
The inflation example is backwards, you showed deflation. If .5 M= $1 then the debt would effectively be cut in half and only be 500 million
You're right, thanks for highlighting. Working on fixing it now.
@@ThePlainBagel Yeah u said it correctly but graphics was reversed 😂
Anyways as always grt video. Keep up the good work. Thank you for breaking down complex economic topics.
He's propaganda. Probably cia, bit who knows.
@@ThePlainBagel Please make a video on capital flight from a country and explain how it effects their currency and effect on their economy. You briefly mentioned this hypothetical situation in the video but I think this is an interesting and important macro economics topic now that the dollar is strong and a lot of other currencies are down.
i just thought he was referring to debt denominated in foreign currency like a lot of the world debt outside the US is denominated in USD.
it seems like almost every country is in debt. I pretty much never hear of countries that are in credit, historically governments lended money out to other ones, do they still?
So… what’s your thoughts about t-rowes emerging Europe market fund? Think it will recover once the war is over? Will sanctions lift?
What is the name of the book in the video
I have a question, so my mom showed me a 10,000 peso bill that apparently was used many many years ago in Mexico, and as most of know now days I think the highest bill is around 200 pesos, does anybody know exactly what happened here? And when? Or a video that explains things like that, thank you
Bruh 78 mil? Gates has that in his checking account lol
He just spent that on farm land too. 🤣
The largest default by a government agency in the United States was the Washington Power Supply System (WPSS--pronounced 'whoops'). They reneged on billions of dollars of bonds. The next year, they went back to the bond market and sought to borrow--selling more bonds. And they paid no more interest than any other government agency. The conventional economic wisdom is frequently wrong.
What about Venezuela government bonds ?
Hey Richard, can you talk a little about MMT?
Why should he? He's no voodoo master.😅
Bond is an unregistered security. Also, if everything is cake then cake is unregistered security.
what happens? their currency goes from being one of its self to zero of its self. people start bargaining for 👖 and Jerry crawls all the way home because "it kept working."
Make a video about Argentine inflation
0:27 i mean… you could try?
1:04 to amass a lot of GME shares as a country, obviously
Did you get that shirt from Orvis?
This is insanely interesting. Thanks for the video.
Hi, can a country be saved by dollarization? Any issues if a country decides to use dollar as its current?
No, get rid of Dollar, focus on gold such as Zimbabwe and Sudan
No, a country can not be saved by any currency but it's own. If you use someone elses currency, you do not control it. This means the market can influence your interest rates, which is a recipe for disaster. Greece leaned this the hard way when it abandoned its currency in favor of the Euro
It usually becomes way worse when they dollarize.
@@MariaCorrea-mr2gy yeah, leaving your sovereign currency for any foreign one would leave your vulnerable to bond vigilantes
Ah so delightfully banal. Debt restructuring and austerity measures. I was surprised to hear you mention nationalizing resources when usually the demand is the opposite. Privatization of formerly nationalized resources and frequently privatization of public sector services like utilities. Does Sun Tzu ever mention debt, or is it too devious a weapon?
Good video, if a bit dry.
well, it is even more tricky in the russian case (sri lanka is the classic case of country not being able to pay,) as they are not out of money, just the lender decided they do not accept the money russia has, and also the lender do not want to change the money they have, and not because it is valueless (like in the late soviet era), but because reasons.
who is the fault, if one side cannot pay, because the other side prevent them. if i have a loan to a bank, and the bank literally do not accept my otherwise perfectly normal payment, than did i missed my loan payment, or is it the banks fault?
I just need to know one thing…. Is the Nomad Capitalist your father?!???😂😊
More like the plain Mike from that chapter.
The last time Russia defaulted on its debt, Khrushchev had to pay for his Pepsi addiction with obsolete naval vessels. For a few months Pepsico had the 6th largest navy in the world. The fact that Coca Cola still exists is remarkable.
no
this is entirely wrong
the deal never went through, the ships were not warships, but cargo ones, and even if the deal went through, at the time, it’d be around the 22nd-24th largest navy in terms of both tonnage and size
Thats wrong on so many different levels
They get an angry letter and no Xmass bonus?
Golden Point - Next Time, When Anybody Brags about How Powerful their Army is......Politely Remind them that their Army was Too Chicken or Cowardly to Send 1 Soldier with Binoculars against Villagers with Knives, Swords etc...
They could always birth a private financial institution that would only loan to them, starting by loaning them 1.2 billion Sri Lankan dollars and just charge interest on those loans for the next 100 years, saving the Sri Lankan government from collapsing but driving up inflation on their currency as it takes out loans from money it's holders never had to begin with, like the United States of America did when it defaulted in 1911.
Whats your opinion on the case of Ethiopia which joined the list in the past week?!
So country can't go on sale?