What Is The 4% Rule? How Much Money Do I Need To Retire?

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  • čas přidán 13. 09. 2015
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    In this video, I want to explain the 4% rule. This is also known as the Safe Withdrawal Rate - or basically the rate at which you can spend your money without ever running out of money.
    An easy way to calculate what this means for you - and how much money you’ll need to retire is by flipping it around and multiplying your yearly expenses by 25.
    For example, if you and your family spend $40,000 per year, you’ll need to have 1,000,000 invested to not run out of money.
    There must be some limit to how long you can withdraw 4% and still have money left over, right? The study that explains the 4% rule is called the Trinity Study, and it looked at how much money you’d need to retire for every year between 1926 and 2009.
    The study found that if you invest 50% of your money in stocks and 50% of your money in bonds, withdrawing 4% of your money will be fine for 25 years, 100% of the time. Doing it for 30 years - you’ll still have money left over 96% of the time. only if you retired in a very unlucky year and never made any money after retirement including pensions or social security - the 4% rule didn’t work.
    So to make sure we’re all clear - the 4% rule isn’t 100% foolproof. But those odds are pretty darn good - and even while I hope to retire from regular work longer than 30 years - i know I’ll continue to make money doing things i love which will make sure that the 4% rule does succeed.
    For those of you that want to be 100% sure your money will never run out (especially for those of you who plan to retire longer than 30 years), use the 3% rule and only withdraw 3% of your investments per year.
    Let’s get back to the 4% rule and dive a little deeper.
    As many of you are probably asking, why is 4% the safe number and not 10% or 2%.
    Very simply, investing money will pay you dividends and increase in value at an average rate of 7% per year. On average inflation is about 3%, basically decreasing the actual value of the money you have. Combine those two numbers, and you’re a 4% - your net income will increase by 4% each year. And if you spend that 4% without going over, you’ll end the year with the same amount that you’ve started… in perpetuity.
    Okay okay - i know a lot of you say this is crazy - what about the recession - you can’t predict stocks - and lots more thoughts.
    But let’s look at those numbers even deeper.
    Since 1900… over one hundred years ago, the average return per year has been 7% including reinvested dividends (meaning you reinvest the dividends - or the money the companies pay your for investing - into your investment).
    For inflation - since 1913 - over one hundred years ago, the average yearly inflation is 3.22%
    Even through the great depression, world wars, crazy years of inflation, more wars, and the great recession the average return rate has been 7% and inflation has been just over 3%
    What does this tell us? It tells us that investing is more about being patient and investing early rather than trying to time the market.
    Now this doesn’t mean that it can’t change. Investing is a risk. That’s why you do it and make money from it. But world war iii could happen. another even greater depression could happen. and we have to be prepared for something like that. because if you retired with 1,000,000 in 2007, assuming you’d be able to spend 4% of your net worth per year, you were in for a surprise - which might mean going back to work for a few years and waiting out the recession. hopefully, if you did that… and left your investments in the stock and bond market, you would be in good shape.
    The key takeaway is that throughout the history of modern america - you’ll be fine to retire using the 4% rule. So calculate your yearly expenses… include some emergency padding… and start investing to get to that goal of 25 times your expenses.
    Let me know if you have any questions or comments below! Is this crazy? Or am I onto something?
    Again, thank you to mr money mustache and the mad feintist for the inspiration!
    Cheers,
    Phil
    Please subscribe to the channel and leave a comment below!
    Video School: VideoSchool.com
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    Twitter: / philebiner
    Facebook: / videoschoolonline

Komentáře • 548

  • @Aziz__0
    @Aziz__0 Před 11 měsíci +90

    Planning retirement has never been this confusing! First SVB, then Signature bank and now First republic, these are all the signs of yet another 2008 market crash and recession 2.0, so my question is do I still save in the United States dollar, or could this be a good time to buy stocks? So I’m left wondering what 2023 has in store for us investors, I’ve been sitting on over $745K equity from a home sale and I’m not sure where to go from here,

    • @sherryie2
      @sherryie2 Před 11 měsíci +3

      Everyone needs a different stream of income , unfortunately having a job doesn't mean security due to the high rate of tax , one needs to move ahead their expectation, I would recommend refraining from investing in stocks for now. Instead, it would be prudent to consider retaining a portion of your assets in gold. Alternatively, seeking advice from a financial advisor could provide valuable guidance in this matter.

    • @corrySledd
      @corrySledd Před 11 měsíci +1

      @@sherryie2 true, A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far.

    • @McElvinn
      @McElvinn Před 11 měsíci +2

      @@corrySledd Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you? been saving for pension since age 18 - company scheme. along the way I hit higher tax, so I added to my company pension with a SIPP (tax benefits) I'm 46 now and would love to grow my finance more aggressively, there are a few cars I still wish to drive, a few mega holidays, etc.

    • @corrySledd
      @corrySledd Před 11 měsíci +4

      @@McElvinn credits to NICOLE DESIREE SIMON, one of the best portfolio manager;s out there. she;s well known, you should look her up

    • @McElvinn
      @McElvinn Před 11 měsíci

      @@corrySledd Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her

  • @Riggsnic_co
    @Riggsnic_co Před 29 dny +118

    I believe the retirement crisis will get even worse. Many struggle to save due to low wages, rising prices, and exorbitant rents. With homeownership becoming unattainable for middle-class Americans, they may not have a home to rely on for retirement either.

    • @Syndiewndell
      @Syndiewndell Před 29 dny +4

      Consider buying stocks when the economy is not doing well, like during a recession. It could be a chance to buy them at a lower price and sell later when prices go up. Just keep in mind, this isn't financial advice, but sometimes it's better than keeping a lot of cash.

    • @martingiavarini
      @martingiavarini Před 29 dny +3

      Accurate asset allocation is crucial. Some use hedging or defensive assets in their portfolio for market downturns. Seeking financial advice is vital. This approach has kept me financially secure for over five years, with a return on investment of nearly $1 million.

    • @Jamessmith-12
      @Jamessmith-12 Před 29 dny +3

      Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?

    • @martingiavarini
      @martingiavarini Před 29 dny +3

      Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..

    • @Jamessmith-12
      @Jamessmith-12 Před 29 dny +2

      She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search for her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

  • @DavidMiller-du9dy
    @DavidMiller-du9dy Před 2 lety +30

    Retiring early is possible but tough, it definitely requires discipline and big sacrifices. It’s not only about saving, the huge step is boosting earning capacity. I’m glad I got into stocks and recently understood and purchased my first NFT.

    • @joerobert1801
      @joerobert1801 Před 2 lety +4

      looking at the performance of various stocks and the dip in the crypto space, there’s so much opening to get in and earn good profits.

    • @seanroger6954
      @seanroger6954 Před 2 lety +5

      @Gregg Bartel it’s alright to stick to what works for you, with high risks comes higher profits for me. I’ve been in the stock market for a long time, I retired with a 7 figure portfolio and receiving about $400k annual earnings from my personal trading broker Dan Raziel, and this earnings comes from consistent trading in stocks and profits from the crypto market as well. The consistent profits calms me, Eye on the prize, stay the course!

    • @kelvinjohnson3906
      @kelvinjohnson3906 Před 2 lety +2

      Not everyone has their financial freedom so well sorted out, it’s ideal to get in early on some investment opportunities.

    • @noelstout3056
      @noelstout3056 Před 2 lety +2

      @@seanroger6954 I’m aware of Dan Raziel, how reliable has he been, and how profitable are his trades on a monthly basis ?

    • @joerobert1801
      @joerobert1801 Před 2 lety +3

      @@noelstout3056 Dan is very reliable I must say, he’s made stock investing the most profitable venture I’ve ever invested in. I’m my first 6 months, he earned me a trade profit of $79,000 with an investment of $13,000. He’s enhanced my earnings and helped build a portfolio that has cleared off my debt.

  • @texas70.32
    @texas70.32 Před 6 lety

    Simple and clear. Good work.

  • @MyWorld-xy7gv
    @MyWorld-xy7gv Před 4 lety +1

    Very informative.

  • @sunilj10
    @sunilj10 Před 7 lety +194

    I retired this year at 40 my childhood dream come true

    • @VideoSchoolOnline
      @VideoSchoolOnline  Před 7 lety +16

      That's awesome! Congrats! any tips?

    • @vikasnarang83
      @vikasnarang83 Před 7 lety +2

      Sunil J - ya pls share ur exp.8006666130

    • @trevorthenbafan2848
      @trevorthenbafan2848 Před 7 lety +4

      Sunil J congrats

    • @raviputcha
      @raviputcha Před 7 lety +13

      Now Sunil J will have to invent more lies just to answer your question. What a pain! Be kind to him folks! Common, who in the hell 'dreams' of retiring? that too in one's childhood, total bullshit!

    • @sunilj10
      @sunilj10 Před 7 lety +14

      I did not think it important to respond to your note, since I do not have to prove to anyone.
      However, I decided to honour the person who is encouraging others.
      Just because you think it is not possible, does not mean it does not exist or is not true.
      The biggest part of financial freedom is to stop being greedy - drawing the line, apart from having to create your stand alone cash flow. Btw, all of it is not given to me through generations.
      I have built my own independent flows, thanks to the almighty for the dream and the opportunities, I got and capitalized on.

  • @pjenkinsa
    @pjenkinsa Před 6 lety

    Great video - clear and simple

  • @askvanita
    @askvanita Před 8 lety +1

    Nice video and good advice. Thank you for making it.

    • @VideoSchoolOnline
      @VideoSchoolOnline  Před 8 lety

      +Stanley George thank you!

    • @michaelreid2171
      @michaelreid2171 Před 5 lety

      Seems insane. If you worked 40 uninterrupted years saving 25% of your gross with 8% returns you won't even have 30 times your salary after inflation.
      And That's a lot of saving without considering sackings, illnesses, divorce, swindles or any other reversals!!!

  • @CoachDomCosta
    @CoachDomCosta Před 7 lety

    Thank you so very much for sharing this!

  • @guyh.4553
    @guyh.4553 Před 6 lety

    Nice accounting. Helped me out a lot. Made perfect sense once you explained it.

  • @koketsomoeng
    @koketsomoeng Před 6 lety

    Great video 👍🏾

  • @ethelbertjohn3845
    @ethelbertjohn3845 Před 4 lety +2

    A really good video, retirement it's a crucial point in our lives many forget to plan for.

  • @Brutus2834
    @Brutus2834 Před 8 lety +3

    Thank you for explaining the 4% rule in a simple way to understand. I love personal finance!!!

  • @ronriesinger7755
    @ronriesinger7755 Před 7 lety

    Very helpful. Best explanation I have heard of the 4% rule.

  • @MikeRosehart
    @MikeRosehart Před 6 lety +2

    Great video, I enjoyed it, I was thinking of making a very similar video explaining how I retired at 24/25 with the 4% SWR

  • @LivingOverseasTV
    @LivingOverseasTV Před 6 lety +11

    Very good information. I have been living on a budget of $1,200 per month including health care and traveling the world. I think this may be a good option for some. Ecuador and Thailand are both very affordable and my lifestyle, for the most part, is greatly improved. I would love to team up with someone to create some workshops to bring this information to those that are interested.

    • @haatib42
      @haatib42 Před 5 lety

      Living Overseas TV sounds interesting, should start a blog

  • @ffrebello
    @ffrebello Před 7 lety

    Very informative. Thanks

    • @sattharabdul5576
      @sattharabdul5576 Před 7 lety

      ಫ್ಲಾಯ್ನ್ ರೆಬೆಲ್ಲೊ Hi bro. .. it won't work in our country... since our inflation rate is @ 8% :(

  • @keatonmorgan295
    @keatonmorgan295 Před 4 lety +1

    Good video, am grateful I made an early move toward retirement that has benefited me so much lately.

  • @RetireCertain
    @RetireCertain Před 7 lety +2

    Great video with some very good data to explain the 4% rule. I would add that the increase in your stock investment account would include not only dividends, as you mention, but also capital gains, and both would be left in the account. The magic of compounding can do a lot without much work over many years. Thanks for your thorough video.

  • @RunForMillionaire
    @RunForMillionaire Před 6 lety

    Cool video!

  • @tbnewhomes
    @tbnewhomes Před 5 lety

    Great video

  • @coasteyscoasteys4150
    @coasteyscoasteys4150 Před 7 lety +64

    it's good to plan for the future but don't get addicted to it, at least live a little today.
    anything can happen, health issue, death,

  • @joeskis
    @joeskis Před 7 lety

    Wow that was a really good ad, I thought it was the video. But then I noticed the skip ad button. Pretty effective but I wised up just in time before the pitch.

  • @danidimitrov3826
    @danidimitrov3826 Před 8 lety +1

    Nice video as always! ;)

  • @Jvuski
    @Jvuski Před 7 lety +449

    I retired this year at age 11

  • @JohnSmith-db1qi
    @JohnSmith-db1qi Před 5 lety

    To keep with the idea of living below my means next month I'm moving into a smaller box on a busier street. I hope the increased traffic noise will take my mind off my smaller quarters.

  • @guilhermehx7159
    @guilhermehx7159 Před 2 lety

    Very good EBINER

  • @stangtrax
    @stangtrax Před 6 lety +15

    ATTENTION: At 1:07 it says 50/50 stocks and bonds. At 3:07 it is a chart of 100% stocks. Overall I agree and like the video. Each do what you want, but 100% stocks investment, with dollar cost average and a drip for me. I studied the stock chart also going back the 100 years even the great depression. One day I need to make a video of explaining how simple investing really is vs risk and reward. Man I would have liked to know what I know now 20 years ago.

    • @ariefraiser140
      @ariefraiser140 Před 3 lety

      The stock chart isn't saying that you should be 100% into stocks.

  • @ticnatz
    @ticnatz Před 7 lety +78

    I retired this year at 58. I won't even tap into my holdings. I will be reinvesting still, for quite a few years. I live in Europe, get an American pension, and will work just a little bit. I firmly believe in living below your means.....if you can

    • @aliesneo
      @aliesneo Před 7 lety +1

      Fleck can you share where in Europe you live and if you own a home there. if so, how did you acquire the house?

    • @nykidxxx
      @nykidxxx Před 7 lety

      Do your research, there's no way you can copy exactly what he does.

    • @Lexethan2011
      @Lexethan2011 Před 7 lety

      Here's something to strive for. Well done!

    • @aliesneo
      @aliesneo Před 7 lety +2

      i am not interesting in recreating what Fleck has achieved, i simply want to know how he went about purchasing property in Europe and if he used financing from an american institution.

    • @slamdunk715
      @slamdunk715 Před 6 lety +1

      He will be living in Europe, but siphoning cash from the USA at the same time?

  • @Bea_remembrance
    @Bea_remembrance Před 7 lety

    good video

  • @amos1kurtda
    @amos1kurtda Před 6 lety

    Thanks for that very informative. Ive been investing in the real estate market, done pretty well out of it but looking for something more liquid. Any funds you recommend?

  • @ChrisMFlorida
    @ChrisMFlorida Před 7 lety +1

    Great video.. and you make it easy for everyone to understand. Thanks!

  • @beyondfossil
    @beyondfossil Před 6 lety

    Two thumbs up!

  • @tankyg8231
    @tankyg8231 Před 6 lety +8

    The Norwegian Government is using this for retirees and healthcare in Norway :P

  • @jburkie01
    @jburkie01 Před 7 lety

    Definitely need to get busy saving this shows how behind I am at 50, Uggh. Big challenge with high mid age expenses...

  • @HeritageWealthPlanning
    @HeritageWealthPlanning Před 6 lety +1

    Big fan of Video School Online. This video does an adequate job of discussing the 4% "rule". My only comment though is if you retired in October 2007.
    By March 2009, you are now taking 6.6% out of your portfolio. This is called sequence of return risk. It gets overlooked A LOT. And in reality when people are faced with it, they have a hard time staying the course. I've seen it over, and over, again.
    Secondly, the 4% rule was based on an era where the 10 Treasury bonds were paying twice what they are now.
    With bond rates as they are today, the 4% has been downward adjusted to 3.2%.

  • @annettenorris412
    @annettenorris412 Před 5 lety

    Thank you

  • @BRuane-pw6xq
    @BRuane-pw6xq Před 6 lety

    In the long run this works well . Trick is to adjust your withdrawals during downturns as 4 percent of a much lower portfolio should cause you to adjust your spending or add income via a 2nd job.

  • @bernardmungin5940
    @bernardmungin5940 Před 4 měsíci

    I really enjoyed this post. I am planning my retirement. I really don't want to work till I am 65. I am want to do it earlier.

  • @MJAli89
    @MJAli89 Před 5 lety +5

    1) Become debt free
    2) Have a years salary saved for emergencies
    3) Now work when ever you want to.

  • @johnvonshepard9373
    @johnvonshepard9373 Před 7 lety

    make a video on what is bonds.

  • @andrewe.7907
    @andrewe.7907 Před 6 lety

    How do you go about taking the 4% from the non retirement accounts before hitting 60? Do you take the entire 4% at the beginning of the year and live off that or take it during the course of the year? And how do you decide where to pull from?

  • @shaunrosenberg4568
    @shaunrosenberg4568 Před 6 lety

    I'm hoping to use the "living off dividends" rule. I'll earn 2% or so dividends and get a 7% raise each year.

  • @ShashiBhushan2k13
    @ShashiBhushan2k13 Před 7 lety

    Good Advice man. I aspire to retire before 2030 :)

  • @tkdcow9911
    @tkdcow9911 Před 8 lety +99

    Far better than social insecurity.

    • @VideoSchoolOnline
      @VideoSchoolOnline  Před 8 lety +16

      +TKD COW haha yep

    • @BigRed2
      @BigRed2 Před 6 lety +2

      Video School Online Can’t get rid of obamacare, Social security will always be there because too many “voters” depend on it

  • @eladiohernandez1257
    @eladiohernandez1257 Před 5 lety

    Great video thank you my dream is to retire at 55 my savings still far off to make my dream come true, but I will try hard by reducing housing cars and add a short term portfolio to live 5 years at 60 I can take 4% and I take social security at 70 that should be achivable

  • @lm5585sysmatrix
    @lm5585sysmatrix Před 6 lety

    One confusing part...
    Video states that the market has returned 7% on average when dividends are reinvested. However, in retirement, dividends become the income and don't get reinvested. So how do we keep the 7% average when the dividends are no longer reinvested?

  • @ox5090
    @ox5090 Před 6 lety +3

    S&p averages just under 10% every year with reinvestment.

  • @londonspade5896
    @londonspade5896 Před 7 lety +2

    I retired at the start of this year only 7 months after conception, 60 days or so and I'll pop out ready to party.

  • @taxol2
    @taxol2 Před 6 lety +21

    There is simpler way if you can afford it.
    Buy properties where the population is still growing, rent them as income. Keep renting them and hold these properties until you decide to quit being landlord. Maybe at age 75 or so.
    Sell the properties, invest the proceed in blue chips dividend stocks or bonds.
    Inflation will incrase your property value till the time you decide to sell them
    Dividends and bonds coupon will support your monthly living cost.

    • @andypagakis
      @andypagakis Před 6 lety +4

      Good advice, but most people dont really consider real estate investing, If you do it right you can 10% returns and increase in value too like you said

    • @taxol2
      @taxol2 Před 6 lety +4

      Andy Pagakis I agree, that is why I said “if you can afford it” and definately not for everyone. Your 1st investment property (which is usually your second property-since your first property is for living) will drain you! But if you keep on doing it right, after the rent income coming in from your several properties, your 4th or 5th property will become very affordable (assuming there is no huge spike or crash in property price in very short time).
      I am lucky that I have been able to do it. The rent will support my living cost. The capital gains accumulating until my retirement year will be the long term “timed deposit”. Reaching retirement years most of them can be sold and I’ll switch to fixed income papers like blue chip investment stocks and invt grade corp bonds for my living cost.

    • @stangtrax
      @stangtrax Před 6 lety +3

      LMAO I would not want to put up with tenants.

    • @andypagakis
      @andypagakis Před 6 lety +3

      me neither, i factored in property management in my 10%

    • @taxol2
      @taxol2 Před 6 lety +4

      stangtrax most of mine are nice people who maintained my houses quite well.
      Can always screen them before signing the lease agreement

  • @jimgood1949
    @jimgood1949 Před 7 lety

    OK as far as how much, but specifically how do you decide what to take the money from? If stock prices are high and bond prices are low, draw only from securities and leave bonds alone, then vice versa, or always draw a bit from both? That is the complicated question.

  • @sschevmale24
    @sschevmale24 Před 7 lety

    So I work for a state hospital they take 7% of my check which is good. I also have an optional 403b acct and take 5% there. I figure save it before I send on something stupid lol ...

  • @TripSeibold
    @TripSeibold Před 7 lety +10

    Really liked your video. Great explanation and details on inflation. I'm personally planning on a 3.3% (30x) rule for myself.
    Great job putting this together and giving a shout out to MMM and Mad Fientist. How close are you to FI?

    • @justinofboulder
      @justinofboulder Před 6 lety +1

      Thanks for the positive comment! My partner just "retired" this year (she's 43), and seeing her do it has me excited to get there.....even though I still enjoy my work. I have about 5-7 years to go according to my figures. Started following MMM about 6 years ago, and while I never felt I could take the concept to the "extremes" he has, slowly I have been changing my ways and building wealth in the process.....

  • @forgednotcast612
    @forgednotcast612 Před 3 lety

    The Median balance in a 401k at age 65 is only 126,000 dollars which under the 4% rule is $5,040 a year and $420 a month. One Million is a very small segment of American retirees.

  • @classicnut6655
    @classicnut6655 Před 6 lety

    The Monte Carlo curve and 4% creates a whole new issue being that it is often not feasible to create the amount of assets to generate the amount of income needed to have full income replacement. Meaning I need to replace $100,000 a year income. But to spend like $100k in 30 years I need to make $250,000 a year due to inflation. So after social security and subtracting house, car and savings I would need need about $180,000 income to live like I live today. That means I would need to have $4.5 million in assets to generate the income needed to maintain my lifestyle. I have found that using the 2 economic powers to create my own covered asset or pension strategy allows me to generate more income guaranteed while investing less over time.

  • @pawezielinski7987
    @pawezielinski7987 Před 7 lety

    Big isse with this vid: On what markets (location nad period) and on what investments do you measure 7% growth and 3% inflation? You know that USA, UK, Western Europe and Easter Europe have vastly different numbers for those, right? You know that different financial instruments will give different ror in the same given time? You do count taxes, right?

  • @kl8922
    @kl8922 Před 6 lety

    Average 7% for yearly returns for the average joe, and look what happened to NVDA stock from 2015 to now. It's up 800%. All the other tech stocks are up over 50% in 2 years.

  • @domjervis
    @domjervis Před 6 lety

    Pretty good video, Sir.
    Have you ever done one on annual Roth Conversions, the goal of which is to minimize the big, wet bite Uncle Sam takes out of one's IRA starting at age 70 1/2? I'm hoping that by using this strategy, my Required Minimum Distributions will be less than the sum of the Standard Deduction plus the Personal Exemption, resulting in no Federal Income Tax on those RMDs...100% legally.

  • @waltheisenberg5620
    @waltheisenberg5620 Před 6 lety

    The flaw in 0:36 is many have the assets in taxable investments so technically speaking, if you need $40,000 a year net to live on, you'll need something more closer to $1.2 million.

  • @azizanaziz3376
    @azizanaziz3376 Před 5 lety +1

    You did the best and most concise explanation of the 4% rule. Great video

  • @ReeceJCoxy
    @ReeceJCoxy Před 5 lety

    You say invest in bonds. What type of bonds. What rating status? And in stocks. Do you mean purely in stocks or some in mutual funds or etfs

  • @badass6656
    @badass6656 Před 7 lety

    Shares and Bonds provide cash flow. If you spend less than the cash flow you can spend he income indefinitely. The 7% average return rate occurred when as you mentioned inflation was higher than now. Economic growth was also higher than it is currently. As you mentioned 3%, cash flow will be nearer this figure for most people.

  • @Kcducttaper1
    @Kcducttaper1 Před 7 lety

    I'd like to think that, if you place your investments wisely, you can get closer to 8-10, maybe even 12% interest. A bit hard to do in an often limited 401k plan though.

  • @jasonfarmer6916
    @jasonfarmer6916 Před 6 lety

    so pulling out 4% a year of the fund would leave the same about of principal and it would never go down or go away

  • @abhattach21
    @abhattach21 Před 8 lety

    Hi Phil, is it 7% avg annual return for investments overall or for just stocks. In another video, you mentioned that it's 7% for stocks. Please clarify. Thanks.

    • @VideoSchoolOnline
      @VideoSchoolOnline  Před 8 lety

      7% is typically a safe annual return for the stock market over the long run.

  • @OptimizeYourJourney
    @OptimizeYourJourney Před 8 lety

    Thx for the vid , i learned new concepts :)
    is there any books you can recommend on the 'trinity study' ?
    -optimize

  • @DLBcovers
    @DLBcovers Před 5 lety +1

    I retired this year as a zygote.

  • @maximilienbisson159
    @maximilienbisson159 Před 7 lety +5

    While I think this 4% (or 3%) rule has a lot of logic, this can't be applied directly to everybody. In many countries/territories, you will have to pay taxes on the money you withdraw form your savings. The are a lot of different governemental programs and it probably is different everywhere, but, to continue with your 40000$/year expenses for a family; in order to have 40000$ cash (ready to be spent), the family will have to withdraw more (and in many places a lot more).
    Sure, as you said, those countries/territories would probably also have retirement plans for their retired people which would provide a certain amount of money troughout the year that you didn't take into account and that will probably counter balance a part of the taxes you'll have to pay, but probably not everything depending on your situation.
    Basically, I think this video is good to demonstrate that it's not so hard to calculate what you'd really need to retire. Just wanted to clarify that this 4% rule will not apply to everybody everywhere, and that it also doesn't allow for any extra expense unless you have an annual budget for ''extra'' taken into account.

    • @desscanlon2206
      @desscanlon2206 Před 3 lety

      Maximilien Bisson XX

    • @donaldlyons17
      @donaldlyons17 Před rokem

      Glad you said it and taxes were not taken out either. Why no one accounts for that makes no sense but normally they don’t.

  • @MrRandyScot
    @MrRandyScot Před 7 lety

    Does "yearly expenses" include taxes?

  • @TheShowThatSUX
    @TheShowThatSUX Před 7 lety

    What concerns me about this logix is how things are changing:
    Yes 1913 to 2016 inflation = average 3.27%
    And yes 1913 to now = average market ROR 6.XX%
    But 2 problems with this model:
    1) current rate to date average ROR is 5.47%, and depending how you do it weighted averages can be as low as 4.27%.
    2) more recent inflation (1974 to now) averages out closer to 4.11% and no longer includes things like food and fuel so in practice is more.
    Those 2 numbers are far to close to one another for my liking.

  • @maierne
    @maierne Před 7 lety

    nice video, my only concern, you're saying there is an average of return of 7%. Have you seen 7% returns in your brokerage account? Or are you taking government or Wall Street numbers?

    • @VideoSchoolOnline
      @VideoSchoolOnline  Před 7 lety

      Yep... with index funds.

    • @alrocky
      @alrocky Před 7 lety

      S&P 500 returned 12% last year 2016 and has a 10 year compound return of 8.1% I've had many years of double digit returns.

  • @Moyodsreds
    @Moyodsreds Před 5 lety +1

    In today's world with bonds at 2% I'm not sure the 60/40 rule and 4% withdrawal still holds true? What say you? Unlikely bonds will ever return to their former glory

  • @Arbmosal
    @Arbmosal Před 8 lety +1

    People should be aware that the 4% rule gives you only a rough estimate. You made this clear in the video but I feel you could have stretched it a bit more.
    1. If I spend 25 000 yearly now, 4%-rule says I need 500 000. But if I need 15 years to get to that number Inflation will increase my yearly expenses to over 30 000 so I need around 750 000 to cover the expenses at the time I retire
    2. In the trinity study (and this you should totally have mentioned) success was defined to having 1$ or more left. They don't tell us what the average or median left over money was, but what if the average left over money after 30 years was only 100$? It is easily possible to be good for 30 years but fail after 35 or something like that. So one of the most important points you made, was that you have additional income from social security and by doing paid "work". For someone who does not have this additional income the 4% rule can well be to dangerous.

  • @Oneofakind123
    @Oneofakind123 Před 6 lety

    What about taxes on the investment gains? I never hear anyone mention that when talking about 4% rule. Should I simply add expected taxes on the yearly spending sum?

    • @blackworldtraveler3711
      @blackworldtraveler3711 Před 6 lety

      Oneofakind
      Everyone situation is different. You should be able to figure it out and control your taxes.

  • @Sky1
    @Sky1 Před 6 lety +3

    Mama used to say, "It's just as easy to fall in love with a Rich one!".

  • @mattkennedy3474
    @mattkennedy3474 Před 6 lety +5

    I was born retired ::drops mic::

  • @Seethi_C
    @Seethi_C Před 2 lety

    But the 7% market return is already adjusted for inflation (gross returns are over 10% on average), so it would seem that you could safely withdraw 7%, right?

  • @tillgaller1164
    @tillgaller1164 Před 7 lety +1

    Sorry, so should I take 4% of my monthly income back or should I invest it?
    What to invest in?

    • @MichaelGGarry
      @MichaelGGarry Před 7 lety +2

      No, the 4% is the money you would have to live on *after* retirement. You need to save/invest as much as you can until then....

  • @argentumtaibhsear621
    @argentumtaibhsear621 Před 6 lety

    I do love that you used 1900 for stock but 1913 for inflation.

  • @eleveneleven572
    @eleveneleven572 Před 6 lety

    You can even go further if you're older. As you age you spend less...travel, car, entertainment etc. Plus you can draw on capital....because no on lives forever..
    Do the sums.

  • @TomDoncaster
    @TomDoncaster Před 8 lety

    SEEMS TO ME THAT AN INDEX OR VARIABLE INSURANCE CONTRACT COULD ASSIST GREATLY

  • @angeliacurtis
    @angeliacurtis Před 6 lety

    What type of acct are u using to invest if it's not a retirement acct like a Roth IRA? I guess I'm confused about the ability to withdraw from ur investment if ur not at least 59 yrs old.

    • @mar504
      @mar504 Před 5 lety

      You can withdraw principle from your ROTH before 59 without any penalty. You can also look into loopholes to move money from a traditional IRA/401k into your ROTH if your goal is to retire early, just search for "roth conversion ladder" and "roth Rule 72(t)".

  • @bobbytheblade2550
    @bobbytheblade2550 Před 4 měsíci +1

    4% withdrawal rate is too low for those who retire early and have the means to grow the asset way beyond that.
    My wife has managed growth in our investment net worth an average of 12% which is crazy good, and we both retired in our 50's.
    Our withdrawal rate is right at 8% which allows us to index inflation and experience some real growth though slight. And we are prepared for cutting back in hard times.
    This works well for us, but is everybody going to be able to grow this well in retirement?
    Most folk should follow a safer, less aggressive route.

  • @HP97user
    @HP97user Před 7 lety

    I prefer the 2% investment strategy; it allows for the market to lose half its value without you ever changing your spend rate (not entirely needed, but nice for extra security if you are skeptical of the overvalued market)

  • @pwk22
    @pwk22 Před 6 lety

    I question whether the exploding deficit, which will consume a greater and greater percentage of the budget, even ignoring today's low, low interest rates, will render the historic assumptions of 7% compounded yearly growth and 3% inflation overly optimistic.

    • @bennyl7224
      @bennyl7224 Před 3 lety

      Government debt load isn’t the same as private debt load and budgeting around a dinner table. Private debt load is the issue, not government debt

  • @ThaylorHarmor
    @ThaylorHarmor Před 7 lety +14

    My motivation to retire is so I can volunteer more of my time. I can't fathom "relaxing" doing nothing.

    • @VideoSchoolOnline
      @VideoSchoolOnline  Před 7 lety +3

      True that!

    • @coasteyscoasteys4150
      @coasteyscoasteys4150 Před 7 lety +2

      Thaylor Harmor no one ever truly retires.
      you have to do something in your time or you will go crazy.
      i see lots of old people looking after gardens in retirement and they obviously enjoy it. so why not find a job doing that in your working days

    • @briannab5296
      @briannab5296 Před 7 lety +1

      +coasteys coasteys ... men retire, women never truly get to retire.

    • @justinofboulder
      @justinofboulder Před 6 lety

      prefer the term FI (financial independence) to "retirement"........I enjoy work, and like that I can choose what projects I take on......

  • @junsilver650
    @junsilver650 Před 2 lety

    Can anyone pls clarify the 4% adjusted for inflation? Is it 4% of your initial nest egg or present value? If your investment drops in value, would you be withdrawing 4% of that reduced investment?

  • @rhdtv2002
    @rhdtv2002 Před 6 lety

    My father in law retired at 50 with 10 kids with his only wife. Sometimes it's all about luck and being cheap. He only gave the basics to the kids and wasn't a enabling parent - he bought a multi unit property because he knew no one will rent him with that many kids. That home he bought for 39k in what is called Wicker Park in Chicago. He then bought the building next to that for 69k then the next one for 99k. With each purchase of the next home he paid off the other one. He makes easily off one bldg 100k a year in rents and is 75 years old. All these properties are worth several million now. FYI- he came from Mexico in his 20s.

    • @donaldlyons17
      @donaldlyons17 Před rokem

      He bought real estate and he likely selected for poor people with a little money used the law and evicted those with no cash. He was able to comply with all housing laws and used his renters money to pay for everything!!! He sold housing something almost everyone needs not something people can just choose to go without!!!! It not his fault but housing is a scam that exploits the poor worst!

  • @stephonlee40
    @stephonlee40 Před 5 lety

    I'm 47 and I've 6 houses at 2 countries worth 3.5 million us with an 11% mortgage and still hard working

  • @satyajh
    @satyajh Před 7 lety

    +Video School Online Is this calculation based on stats for the US bonds and stock market and the US rate of inflation? In India the inflation rate has fluctuated a lot over the decades so would the 4% rule hold true globally?

  • @ethanwormell4812
    @ethanwormell4812 Před 8 lety +1

    I was excited to watch this video and then I heard the voice of a 20 year old....How about someone who is retired? Can we get some experience behind these hopes and dreams please?

    • @VideoSchoolOnline
      @VideoSchoolOnline  Před 8 lety +1

      +Ethan Wormell I would check out MrMoneyMustache.com, he's what I've based a lot of my knowledge on.

  • @DLBcovers
    @DLBcovers Před 5 lety +3

    I hope to someday retire before I was born.

  • @antraxpippo68
    @antraxpippo68 Před 5 lety

    What kind of investment give surely 7 per cent a year

  • @AtheistEve
    @AtheistEve Před 7 lety +4

    I retired (by accident) at age 50.

  • @gspeku9173
    @gspeku9173 Před 7 lety +2

    at 2:45 its not 7%-3%, its 1.07*0.97=1.0379, so 3.79%
    thats how math works ;)

  • @michigan0207
    @michigan0207 Před 6 lety

    How do you factor in life time pensions?

    • @VideoSchoolOnline
      @VideoSchoolOnline  Před 6 lety +1

      You could calculate how much your expenses will be, and subtract your pensions - and use that to understand how much you need to retire with the 4% rule.

  • @chefalbino
    @chefalbino Před 6 lety

    i retired from having offtime with 14.

  • @andrewnewman2516
    @andrewnewman2516 Před 4 lety +20

    Retired 8 years ago and I've been able to keep my finances in check through investment. i make about $24k a month from my investments in foreign exchange markets(forex).
    There isn't a particular amount of money needed for retirement

    • @jovenelpierre2630
      @jovenelpierre2630 Před 4 lety

      the income is quite reasonable, it's always safe to earn passively

    • @gagnonsmith5912
      @gagnonsmith5912 Před 4 lety

      Interesting

    • @andrewnewman2516
      @andrewnewman2516 Před 4 lety +2

      this past months have been the best of my life, with income coming in I don't worry much, my son is grown and has his finance rolling so I make donations to charity as I believe so much in humanity.
      Making the best of our my retirement days, we all live but once.

    • @ericwalter4416
      @ericwalter4416 Před 4 lety

      I'm fully interested in learning how to trade any suggestions?

    • @andrewnewman2516
      @andrewnewman2516 Před 4 lety

      Yes Andy, i made alot of bad trades at first but coming across an expert trader helped in getting back to winning ways , my expert trader still handle my trades and he's also teaching me how to trade efficiently, i made $6k on my own last week.
      Having an expert made the work a lot easier for me, their experience and understanding of the market is amazing.

  • @craig7948
    @craig7948 Před 8 lety

    The rule of 4% has been corrected recently because of low returns in fixed income classes to closer to 3%. It should also be noted that this simplistic style of retirement income planning puts retires at risk of sequence of returns. Pulling out income needs from retirement accounts in down markets will impact your ability to not outlive your money.

    • @VideoSchoolOnline
      @VideoSchoolOnline  Před 8 lety

      +Craig Armstrong definitely! gotta make sure you pay attention to down years... and you might need to do some side work or go back to a full time job for a bit to make sure you're still living by the 4% rule (or the 3% rule which is even better!)

  • @omasavior1377
    @omasavior1377 Před 6 lety +2

    Can't wait until I retire at age 17 #blessed