Number of 2nd hand houses for sale at 50% of the number 10 years ago (with population rising)
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Here's something else that needs to be considered. Big tech companies are steadily starting to either reduce the workforce numbers or move on out of the country. If the jobs ain't here, nobody will be able to buy them, effectively making already expensive houses unsaleable. So the bubble will have to burst, the market will become stagnant unless prices come down.
There is no bubble! Houses are purchased with low levels of debt!
Also housing isn’t particularly expensive by international standards!
Only WWIII will bring house pricing down substantially!
A massive global recession may knock 5% off current prices.
The only realistic way of bringing prices down is increasing supply substantially! At least a 10 year timeframe to catch up on supply.
I think that the outlawing of the "bedsit" was a significant factor in aggravating the housing/homeless crisis.
Our planning system seems unfit for purpose, too slow in operation and does not serve the population. New long awaited planning laws will take years to wash through the system.
Very little thinking outside the box by those in charge of sorting it out
All quite bleak for our young people. They deserve better.
If we let the free market to dictate what type and size of property, then we will not have problem. I never understood why we gave power to faceless civil "servants" to decide what is suitble for us, when they themselves live in big houses!!.
Most young people are happy with a small dwelling that they have their own space.; is that too much to ask for??
If they consider the accommodation was not suitable they just move out and allow others who have a lesser demand; people should be able to vote with their wallets?
Bedsits didn t get outlawed. The minimum standard for a dwelling got improved to cover basic things like no shared toilet and minimum SqM. Infact the most recent act (2015) was to further reduce the minimum size it 45 SqM
The problem is simply not enough supply, bedsits are a very small part of the market and only in the larger cities. Not enough is being built and this is compounded by increasing demand as a result of increased population and strong economic growth.
Yea oulawing well kept bedsits but will rent out moldy damp kips to young students etc
In America a good few Sawmills are starting to close because a few Hardwares are selling timber for next to nothing and a few have seen it happening in the last crash
I Bought a 4 Bed Semi usual Irish house in 2006, 265:000
Sailed Through the Storm self employed it wasn’t easy . and I Hope I never have to go through that again
When i look at the property price register, looks like house prices have doubled in the last 10 years. At least in my area
In nominal values yes. In terms of purchasing power of those euros 10 years ago, absolutely not.
Fair point, what would happen if there is a 1929 type stock cash and the banks stop lending? Is it really wise to trust this economy?
Very good analysis. Although we probably need to consider the concept of price elasticity of demand. Basically how the change in price will affect the change in demand. At a certain point, the increase in prices will have a huge drop off in demand. Now, because it's housing and it's a nessesity, this tends to be quite ineleastic, as we've seen so far...but it still needs consideration. It's kind of like, too much money chasing too little supply. But what happens when the money runs out. I also think this oecd tax for companies is a ticking time bomb. If multinationals pull out, it will leave many with mortgages that more "regular" paying jobs may not cover. This could lead to repossessions etc and a repeat of 2008 on a smaller scale.
Also, I just discovered your channel and videos over the last few days. They are very informative and well though out. And you apply sound logic to everything. Subbed 👍.
For sure the rate of population increase due to people coming in from abroad is putting the property market under huge strain for buyers and renters.
@mike_mcgb Incorrect. It's both. 2023 data: 54,678 births - 35,459 deaths = 19219.
It's a combination of all of the above.
@mike_mcgb ur incorrect 🤡
@mike_mcgb no evidence, lol do u not have eyes.... do not waste anymore time with dis 🤡, he obviously hasn't an absolute clue wat he is talking about
@mike_mcgb You are incorrect. Since the Act in 2000, 20% of all developments of 5 units or more have to be for social and affordable housing resulting in a higher % than there has even been. To keep national debt down, these are now owned by housing associations rather than the council/state meaning the debt stays on associations books unlike a council house.
Thank you for another interesting and enjoyable video. The free market will always sort shortages, surpluses. Possibly for good reasons. Our government interferes with every part of housing. There could be a crash if for some reason interest rates went back to 19%. If the Euro failed or something unforseen happened. There has always been booms and busts and when one is in either it is hard to see it coming. Inflation also distorts the picture.
You should add global economic situation too, that influence house prices.
I came back from abroad post crash and bought a residential farm. I'm looking at selling up and taking my 100 percent profit in the next few years.
That's silly! You could take your 400% profit in 10 years time
None of these are crises. Man made and planned. The replacement of the native populations across Europe continues unabated.
You must have missed the part where Terry said his opinion is evidence based.
Replacement theory has been studied and confirmed as nonsense
@@paulmayo2948The figures are clear. Birth rates in Ireland have been below replacement rate for over thirty years, yet the population has increased significantly in that time.
@@Monaleenian Good economy = more immigration & less emigration
You're looking at a single factor (assuming it's true) and replacement theory is still nonsense.
@@paulmayo2948any demographer will tell you that replacement theory is a valid theory, it's just not an effective solution long term. It's merely a band aid on the demographic problem. A short term fix to a long term problem. That's the main criticism of the replacement migration theory which was presented by the United Nations Population Division in 2000.
@@somedudebro69 Encyclopedia Britannica lists 'replacement theory under the heading of 'CONSPIRACY THEORIES'. Followed by a very long definition which can be replaced with a single word; Nonsense.
Sound analysis . 👍
"house prices are a function of supply and demand and until supply increases significantly it's hard to see house prices falling." They would fall if demand for houses reduced. The inconvenient truth about supply and demand is that there are two sides and your data means nothing when you ignore the fact that in Ireland's case right now demand is artificially increased by govt policy on immigration.
Truth
Hear, hear.
@mike_mcgb If you ignore either of
them you’re an ideological clown.
@mike_mcgb Mike you have a lot to learn.
@mike_mcgb "fleeing war or hunger" - I don't think so, Mike. Wanting a western lifestyle with car, house etc, probably. Wars and hunger deliberately engineered to reduce population, cause migrant flows, sell arms, sanction Russia etc etc driving down wages here but not to the benefit of small businesses.
Someone who earns 109,000e per annum and has 10% of the deposit is not able to buy a house in Dublin
Yep. Sad.
Good man Terry, the truth will float to the top.
Do you think we should give Irish families priority over new families coming in to Ireland ?
💯
Yes
Very difficult to do legally. Not allowed to discriminate based on race.
@@Finderskeepers. why not ? Surely it goes on who has lived in the area longer
For example: if a Canadian family moved to Ireland for the fathers big job in a global tech company and have more than enough savings for a lifetime and a young Irish family from the local area have the deposit and a decent income were looking at the same house in Kildare who should get the house?
Prices are determined by supply and demand, see economics 101.
There’s an artificial disruption to the supply of housing.
It’s called the “an Board Pleanála”
The asinine laws and rules which restrict and/or prohibit the development of the abundantly available land in Ireland is the biggest factor in the restricting of supply.
The above coupled with the corrupt government of Ireland having zero problem debasing the culture of the populace by allowing mass immigration contributes to the artificial surge in demand.
Conclusion, prices of housing in Ireland is artificially high and is likely to see a correction if and when we address the underlying causation, ie. Corruption.
And anyone who thinks it is reasonable to pay a half million or more for a house in Ballygobackward with no amenities, infrastructure or employment deserves everything that’s coming to them.
One point you are leaving from your systemic critique, the supply is already there. So a simple supply and demand equation is not sufficient for this analysis. If the supply is already there, no need for as many new builds, so why aren't we using the supply?
65000
I've found it odd how ireland has no political crisis and has a lot of stability in spite of a huge housing crisis
Very good country, notwithstanding the naysayers and doom mongers 😉
@@terrygorry 😊 sometimes I'm not good at detecting if the Irish are sarcastic! Do you mean life is generally better in Ireland so people are happy with government
@@anthonym3351 yes
Healthcare system is in tatters, no good jobs accessible to common working man, and housing shortage. You’re out of touch.
@mike_mcgb Yes, but I was saying the video creator/OP was out of touch for saying life is good in Ireland. Maybe for him... But the reality is that lots of people are really struggling.
But you need money supply also and not many banks are as Keen unlike early 2000's so prices will reach a max not crash but stablise
Credit supply. Not money supply.
When credit withdraws, real prices emerge in due course.
@@Anriruano as thats assuming the people and companies buying houses don't have the capital to hand. They do thats the issue. Chinese, Indian, American, English (etc) investors who are very well off have the money to buy property outright. There are no restrictions on foreign entities and individuals buying property here
There are 500,000 empty properties in the UK. We don't need to be more we.need to use what we already have
What has the UK got to do with this video?
@@terrygorry We're in uk
@mike_mcgb I know. Don't call me son dick.
New house prices have reached the peak of 2007, bolstered by government grants which is simply industry subsidisation. Secondhand prices, in the Midlands at least, for a semi-d are not yet on a par with the 2007 madness. i.e. €230k (my pricepoint example) in 2007 is worth €295k in today's purchasing power. Courtesy of the ECB and their controlled, intentional inflaton. What, you didn't know that Central Banks, and central banks alone, create inflation? Come now 😅.
All that is wrong in our lives is that our wages (price of labour) has not kept up with the price of every other asset. Its very simple. Priced in gold, real money (just ask the CBs), houses are declining. Or priced in euro currency, they're increasing. Leaving aside CGT for now, gold is the clever place for your savings. 22% since last year and it hasn't even got going. Save (store) your house deposit with the likes of goldcore, liquidate it very quickly when needed and close that gap between house price 'inflation' and wage stagnation (examine many recent pay awards versus even CPI and one is losing). Examine against actual inflation, beyond contrived measures, and one is beig defrauded of their labour.
#BuyGold #Buysilver
What this should also tell you, if you're wise, is that those who purchased at the peak of.2005-2007 are STlLL in negative equity when priced in terms of their labour and not the moveable feast that is the euro, sterling or dollar.
You have a choice but its not easy and will likely be mocked.by those who believe its the demographics baby. A little more so this time around but.....yeah right..😂
It is very, very rare that I find myself in agreement with any comment on the internet. For an honest measure of house prices, they should be priced in real money which is gold and this measure shows real prices declining. Other interesting measures would be a unit of labour costs, food, healthcare or other everyday expenses that people actually need. Ultimately though, the biggest loss in property values will be against gold or perhaps silver. I think, considering that gold is money and thus not an investment, collecting CGT on gold is wrong and immoral but what else should we expect. I find it strange that people think it's prices that are rising when it's actually the € and other fiat currencies that are falling. When a critical mass of people wake up to this fact, there will be a stampede out of fiat currencies (not money) into real assets and real money. Now, will CBs be able to maintain control of inflation and inflation expectations and keep it as a steady loss of purchasing power so as to maintain their illusory lie that fiat currencies are an honest measure of value or even a store of value? I don't think so. Sorry for repeating much of what you said. I was just happy to see some logic that I agreed with.
I'm a millennial, and I converted my € savings into bitcoin (digital gold but even more scarce) in early 2020. The painful 33% CGT in Ireland is alleviated by the outsized longterm returns. We've recently purchased our home and are very lucky to have a mortgage repayment that is significantly lower than rental prices in our area.
I like your use of the word "harbour" for Enfield. Maybe you are not using it in the literal sense?
In what literal sense?? Canals have harbours. Tullamore Harbour, Shannon Harbour.
Perhaps this space in Enfield was not an intentional harbour; but I imagine it was. Most canal networks have harbours that were for the freight barges....
Hi Terry. Can you do a video on an post threatening the Burkes of Mayo with withdrawal of post delivery.
You can watch it here: czcams.com/video/A0PKS-Ywn1w/video.html
SF objecting to every build to let development doesnt help. A home is a home be it rented or owner occupied but SF want to take a communist approach.
Give some thought to immigrating. For example, you could move to parts of Germany and get a good house for less than 100,000. If your situation is being a tenant forever or living in Mainz or Regensgburg or any of the many rural towns with a population of 100,000 or less you should consider a move.You could buy your own home, it should be considered an option. English is widely spoken in Germany. There are skills shortages in every industry. There is a big cultural difference between Ireland and Germany for sure.
Bring the Italians to build Ireland
Have you travelled Italy? The place is a dump. They can't repair roads never mind build houses.
what free market has to do with heavy government influence to be exact foreign government pressures. only communism was regulating it's "free markets".
@mike_mcgb china doesn't need free markets they have everything. free markets are only for those who has relative competitiveness or comparative advantage. china can make everything - now and they choose to whom trade.