CORRECTION: the non-hacking DeAndre Jordan free throw percentage is 56.0, not 60.6. My bad lol. Thanks for taking 13 minutes out of your day to watch me talk about super nerdy sh*t like this. Appreciate ya. -Marc
MDJ Idc if you upload everyday, every week, or every month. As long as you're uploading good insightful content like this that's all that matters. I'm pretty sure that's why we're all here man.
I just watched a 14 minute video about "Hack-A-Shaq" without even knowing what "Hack-A-Shaq" meant before all because Mark's videos are just so entertaining.
Whenever I listen to terrible mainstream media personalities like colin cowherd, skip bayless, or Stephen a smith talk unobjectively or just spew pure idiocy from their mouths about basketball, I come back to this channel to remind myself that people like you who blend statistics and pure basketball logic exist in the world. Keep it up mark.
If Drummond can sustain a respectable free throw shot he flips the Pistons' late game dynamic a complete 180 degrees. Their best defender can stay on the court in crunch time and be productive at the same time. I'm geeked about that. That should give us the 5 games we needed last year to make the playoffs. And this is what Van Gundy built his Orlando success around.
I think the major reason the hack a Shaq exists is in the coaching. The fact is that big guys get taught to shoot by little guys. The big man should be passing it to the basket as opposed to taking an actual shot. Its simple mathematics. The trajectory, maximum, arc, turning point, and force will be drastically different if the starting point is a foot or 2 above how they are taught to shoot. Take Wilt Chamberlain for example. He couldn't make a free throw for the life of him. However, he was an incredible shooter. There are videos of him hitting a ton of 3s in a row whilst being interviewed. People claim to him hitting 20 shots from half court and making each one. If big guys figure out how to shoot on their own as opposed to the regular form, hack a Shaq will disappear. Form is a super overrated thing. Almost all of the best shooters have their own form. Reggie Miller (imo the greatest all around shooter of all time) has explained this in an open court on tnt.
2ManyTekkers - Good points. Wilt Chamberlain was the best, purest shooter of all time. Incidentally, Wilt's teammates and opponents nearly unanimously agree that Wilt made them when it mattered. Noone dared to try a Hack-a-Wilt of the sort they do nowadays. An opponent would run out of fouls before you'd run out of Wilt.
lets imagine for a second that shooting ability and size are completely independent variables. we can still conclude with a fair level of confidence that bigger players would be significantly worse shooters because players have to get trough a selection process. Which means that players who get in the league because of their height will have a significantly worse average ability to shoot regardless of form or anything like that. you have two variables(x,y) that are somewhere between 0 and 100. you look at 1000 pair of variables and you keep all of the variables that have >80 in on of the variables. If you look at all the Y values of the pairs that were selected for their high X value...they are going to average out to roughly 0.5(or the average value if we had a perfectly random distribution) or to put it simply...a tall guy who can't shoot has better odds of making it into the nba than a short guy who can't shoot.
This is the best analysis on hack-a-Shaq I've seen. It addresses all the problems, such as rhythm and transition, that I've thought about but never really seen talked about from anyone.
I study maths at a university in Greece and all I can say is that your channel is awesome , especially when the video has to do with statistics and analytics . Keep up the good work ! (I am sure you will , it is pretty obvious that you love making this kind of videos)
hakeem is the goat because he is the best defender of all time 1st in blocks and 6th in steals for a center that is amazing and Hakeem is 11th all time in points and hakeem is 13th in rebounds and led the Rockets to back to back championships one of the Rockets team won the Championship as the 6th seed
It's relevant because Hakeem was not hackable at 71%. He was capable in every aspect of the game. I would also take Hakeem as first choice for my historical team.
Never thought about it, but this strategy looks pretty efficient Please make some videos on other basketball tactics and strategies Of course, you're not a couch, but it seems you actually have an idea of how this game is played
Why are so many players with "andre" in their name so bad at free throws?? DeANDRE Jordan, ANDRE Roberson, ANDRE Drummond, ANDRE Iguodala.....DO A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON THAT hahahaha 😂
I'm actually a data analytics ISE Major from osu, and I'm trying to get a job in sports analytics. Not that that matters at all, I'm just some college kid who thinks he's smarter than he is, but I've noticed that if we define "fast break" to be any offensive possession which includes 3 or less defenders, and define "transition" to be offensive possessions wherein the initial, offensive action takes place before all 5 defenders are"set," the numbers start to shake out much closer to how we expect them to. Half court systems are far less efficient than fast breaks for all teams, but depending on the personnel, the efficiency of transition possessions is super varied. Note: set is defined to be when a defender is in proper position between his man and the rim, and initial offensive action as the first drive or pass in the half court. Hopefully some bball nerds find this interesting, God knows I do.
I love these number crunching videos! The first video I watched about Lou Williams and shooting streaks with the Probabilities and Confidence Intervals made me subscribe to this channel. Make more of these! This is what separates MDJ from the rest of the NBA CZcams community.
We used to make lots of fun about him, but good ol' Don Nelson was clearly on something when he created that. Note: It could be argued that it was created far earlier as "Hack a Wilt" but the foul rules were slightly different back then, even though they endured a much bigger makeover when the Big Dipper arrived.
The momentum part really is a two-edged sword. I always feel when a team hacks someone they also take away their own chance to build up momentum. Best way to get momentum is with some easy buckets in transition and, like you said in the video, there are not many of them after free throws.
If you want to quantify momentum in a most basic way, I'd say it could be as simple as (total PER of players on the floor for a team) * (points for - points against) / (game time elapsed), where points for and against correspond to the game time in question. It's analogous to the definition of momentum in physics, p = m*v. In this application, "mass" is represented by some measure of the quality of players on the floor, as represented by the sum of the five players' PER (could be some other measure), and "velocity" is net scoring per unit time.
I highly appreciate you making the point that numbers alone aren't reality, perception alone isn't reality, but both in conjunction concluding the same thing is reality and is significant.
All these bigs needs to do is practice the free throw. Repeated movements gets results and learns the ways of getting it done. Muscle memory will set in once you're used to it. And there's the "grandma shot" it may look bad but effective.. very effective.
I have watched Hack A Shaq strategy since its beginning. I have rarely seen it work especially over periods of longer than 2 minutes. Why? Here is what my theory is in regards to this theory. 1. In order to make this theory work the team that is applying the Hack A Shaq strategy has to shoot a FG% greater or close enough to make the point differential work. The same way that the 3pt shot now is considered the more efficient shot to shoot. But this theory only works too if you shoot the ball at a certain percentage. Otherwise the team will lose every game that they will play. The longer you attempt this theory the more likely both teams will not budge on position of who is winning or losing. 2. The more times you send a poor FT shooter to the line the more pressure it puts on your opposing Defense. Thus can effect your teams defensive rating because now your players could be in foul trouble and now has to play with less aggression because of this situation. 3. As pointed out the Hack A Shaq theory will halt all teams momentum during a game and can hurt you chances of coming back or sustaining a lead. This is especially true if the poor FT shooter makes the second FT instead of the first on attempted. 4 and final observation is that often times when you place a poor FT shooter on the line the FT shooter can sometimes get into a rhythm and knock down a much higher FT % than he normally would if he went to the line in a normal pace of the game than continually being sent to the line. Overall this theory can work but it should be utilized in the right time otherwise at the most of the time this theory often becomes more of a wash when it is spread over a 2 to 5 minute span.
at 2:00 i think your math is a little off, a 60.6% FT% would be a 1.212 PPP not a 1.12 PPP, it'd be 56% for him to equal the offensive rating of 112 given. good video tho, brought a lot of factors together, would've been interesting if you mentioned the other team getting into foul trouble too
Fast break can work if everyone is on board. Just another factor on how the game has changed. The warriors can employ a transition fast break from a missed free throw, but only until the other team realizes they have to play every minute they are on the court.
Hi @MDJ! First up, let me start by saying that I generally like your videos! It's a heady and thoughtful approach. Regarding this particular video, I really appreciate that you brought up "momentum" as an impact variable. Now, I'm NOT a video gamer these days (waaay too time consumptive), but back in the 90s there was a game called NBA Jam which took momentum into gaming theory consideration with a concept called "catching fire." I'm operating solely from memory, but the concept had to do with the number of times in a row that a player hit a shot to "catch fire," ergo having a momentum or rhythm (you brought that up, too) that could swing a single game (which you also referenced), and once the player was on fire that player was good for impossible shots from anywhere on the court for a certain amount of time. I certainly don't drill down into statistics enough to even know if data like this is being gathered/analyzed by the NBA or independent statisticians, but "catching fire" could viably have notable impact on the variables you brought up (fast breaks, offensive and defensive rating, offensive rebounding, FREE THROWS, etc). Last thing: if you hadn't considered it, you may want to consider a career in quantitative modeling in the world of investments (if you like making a lot of money), or as a data scientist in sports quantitative analysis (if you like doing stuff that wouldn't feel like a job). If you got this far on my post, thanks for reading my ramble and for the videos!
Based on my own vast experience playing basketball, a momentum swing for better or worse can happen from only one play, but it's impossible to quantify. For instance, in this CZcamsr's analysis, hack-a-shaq can interfere with the opposing offense's rhythm, but it also interferes with the fouling team's rhythm. I vaguely recall reading about a statistical analysis that found the team whose player was intentionally fouled a bunch had a better DRTG on the opponent's next possession, probably due to being able to properly set and rest.
@@PoochieCollins That is a great point re interfering with the opposing offense's rhythm! Waaay back in another lifetime, while at my first college football game (back in the 70s? 80? Notre Dame vs Army at The Meadowlands), I first learned about "icing the kicker" with a timeout right before a field goal attempt. Same tactic is used in basketball and it is psychologically effective and can indeed break a team's flow, regardless of sport.
60% from the line is something every basketball player can and SHOULD achieve. They're professionals after all and a mechanics of a shot can be improved with help from shooting pros. If the problem of a specific player isn't motion-wise but psychological than a shooting coach won't help much, and the player will either stay the way he is or get better with some psychological help. The league average for free throw percentage is what, 76%? achieving 60% is still much less than the average, it's definitely doable for each player for which this is his job and livelihood. When did this start? when Shaq was so dominant over others and it was basically the only sure way of making him a liability. The only way you could defend effectively against him was to grab him on some point on the court without any relation to the actual game going on. But today it has progressed to be a strategic tool that is used based on percentages and not dominance. The bottom line regarding the 'hack-a' method is that the fouls being called are not related to the game really, it's a random player holding another random player away from the ball. What does it has to do with the game of basketball? you could have mentioned this as a point in the video. Once the league changes the rule that a foul away from the ball is more like a technical and give the other team one free throw and the ball the whole 'hack-' thing will stop and we could enjoy watching players PLAY and not standing on a line shooting twice without anyone disturbing them. It's a strategy, a loop-hole, that people exploit, nothing more.
Would love to see numbers how hack-a-shaq influences ORtg of the team when running this strategy. You are right about the fact a lot of things can't be quantified here, but this one definitely could. NBA should consider adding hack-a-shaq as a metric in their stat cubes
+MDJ it's possible, maybe even probable, that teams have information on momentum because you almost always see coaches call timeouts when the opposing team goes on a run. Granted this is often because there was some type of defensive or even offensive breakdown the coach wants to discuss with his team, but even those times when their team is playing well & the opposing team is just shooting lights out, coaches still seem to call timeouts. Edit: Btw, love the video!
I think momentum and rythm can be explained by the players settling in a flow and muscle memory starts kicking in It can be a player own shooting or the team running sets and plays Once u hack a player u stop everything and break it
Yo mdj you should read up/research flow states aka the point where difficulty and ease meet where it's the Goldilocks zone of not too hard to discourage and not too easy where it's boring. This, of course is in reference to rhythm and sort of momentum
This video is so great! So informative, and as somebody who loves both math and basketball, it is great to find somebody who makes videos that address both. Keep up the great work! Best channel by far
Great video! But I'd like to point out a thing that you missed out which is personal fouls and team fouls. Both will give you disadvantages and would probably cause poor defensive performance. Great content though, love your videos
MDJ you should have started by explaining what the strategy is because some people might not know what it is. But otherwise great work, love your vids.
We can't quantify confidence and rhythm and momentum and such because we know very little about the human brain and how people think. If we think of mathmatics as another language used to explain information in the form of numbers, then in theory anything can be quantified. It's just a matter if we know enough to explain it in english to translate it to math and then back to english, or whatever language you choose to speak.
I think another thing you need to account for with this is the value of the foul to hack the player. If you sub in a bench scrub to foul you're losing production on offense but if you keep in the regular rotation they are forced to use their fouls and potentially have to sit later in the game.
+Erik Andersen yea that's true too, altho that's a situation that's pretty circumstancial, usually it's easy to find players who aren't in emergency foul trouble
The video was great! But you forgot to mention I believe one of the most important reasons that it works. It let's you exploit the positive margin that you create in (points scored-points taken) per posession in one extra way. in 2 minutes normally there are 3 posessions for each team but with hack a Shaq there are 5-6 meaning bigger total scoring margin because of more repetitions of the positive (points scored-points taken) per posession margin
I think the most damaging aspect of hack-a-shaq is just to change the pace of the game entirely. It's such a stupid and weird exploitation of the rules that it kills any momentum that either team has been building. For younger teams and younger players who relies more on having the hot-hand, it can actually be a lethal problem when you playing against a very organized team, for example, like the Spurs who are disciplined and runs the halfcourt offense really well.
at 10:15 you said "Lower confidence generally leads to lower effectiveness". I would disagree and say it's the other way around, if you're missing shots then you will not be confident that you will hit the others and rightfully so
My favorite analytics example: in one NBA Finals, the Cavs players decided-- in the middle of the game, not in the final seconds-- that with Kevin Durant in transition at mid-court, it made sense to double team Curry behind the 3 point line (where he would've probably shot 42% in single coverage, i.e., an expected 1.26 points per possession) and go ahead and concede the entirely uncontested, no defender within 20 feet, dunk to KD, where he was likely to make it only 99.9% of the time, i.e., a mere expected 1.998 points per possession). I mean... why let Curry score 1.26 points when you could hold KD to a mere 1.998 points? Analytics, no?
Doesnt the average offensive rating include posessions where DJ gets hacked? Shouldn't you split the two to see what the offensive rating is of a regular half court posession
Another good vid MDJ. Would have been cool to discuss what strategically Hack-A-Shaq does by using up fouls and keeping less useful players on the court to eat up those fouls. You kinda disclaimered it by using non quantifiable examples to consider, so I am just nitpicking. Still keep up the good work!
Honestly I have to be in a certain mood/headspace to absorb ur content properly... So I may not click on the notification...BUT ...BUT when I do, I end up binging! In short, this is not toilet viewing. U can use this as a quote if u want.. "Not toilet viewing" and we all know what that means... no, really, if I stay focused I legitamtly feel informed. And smarter about hoops
Is there an "advantage" or play on rule in bball like in football (soccer) amd if not do you think one could be implemented to stop the hack a shaq strategy? (Btw this rule basically lets a team play on if they are fouled but still have a chance at goal however of the attack breaks down the team is pulled back for a free kick)
Ever wondered why three different players coached by Stan Van Gundy all ended up being hacking targets. The three are Shaquille O'Neal, Dwight Howard, and Andre Drummond. Stan Van Gundy is the common factor. It's not the players, its the coaching. More specifically, its the MANDATORY training regimens that the players must follow, combined with a coach that deliberately humiliates and scapegoats the player being hacked.
At the 2 min mark of the Video, MDJ says DeAndre has to shoot 60.6% from the free-throw line to equal the clippers 1.12 PPP. Shouldn't it be 56%? 0.56×2=1.12 0.606×2=1.212 Great video otherwise, just noticed a small mistake.
The training regimens teams demand of their leading rebounder(s) emphasize shoulder strength training and gross motor skills. Free throw shooting is a fingertip, fine motor skill. The constant, intense training in order to maximize reaching for rebounds and blocking shots, and training for upper body strength causes constant inflammation of the arms and shoulders. Big guys like them don't make the team for their free throw shooting.
Randle was more effective because he had an incentive to play on D because he got the ball. Its why teams always post up their big man at the start of games
So while I agree that Hack-a-Shaq works to an extent, there's a reason it's still used sparingly. I think you underestimate how big the lack of faastbreak and transition offense in general impacts all NBA teams in these situations. I can't really find stats on this, but I'm pretty sure there is a big dropoff in the opposing offense after a free throw, probably even bigger when it's made.
Hey Marc, this is kind of coming out of my curiosity, but you seem to have a VERY high basketball IQ. I was wondering whether you actually played ball or not. I'm rather new to your channel and really intrigued by your content. Anyways, best of luck for the future.
a factor you didnt address is putting your team in the penalty. if you hack a shaq, you will wind up putting the other team on the line for even non-shooting fouls. this will cost a team 2-6 points per game. i think the strategy rarely works unless youre talking about sub40-45% free throw shooters.
At 1:56 -- How do you come up with the number 60.6% for what DeAndre Jordan would have to shoot in order to score at the Clippers' average offensive rating?
I really don't get the people who say "hack-a-shaq" kills the spirit of the game. As the video says, if somebody in the opponent has FT shooting worse than the offensive rating, you can do it to gain advantage. First, you really destroy their momentum and it becomes more and more frustrating for the hacked player. That person could shoot even worse than his average under pressure. If he shoots like 35%, I guess it is pretty fair to say that hacking is the best defensive strategy.
Bro you should upload your videos on Chinese websites like Youku and Tencent. People would be crazy for videos like this! Trust me. Your videos are much more entertaining than some top 10 plays of a player. Chinese are really smart and they love numbers. You just need to have someone does the subtitle for you. But you can be really big and get a lot more attention than what u have now. You can start from Microblog (Weibo)
Another thing about hack-a-Shaq is teams have to consider if they want to concede putting the other team in the penalty and burning fouls for individual players. Except in hack-a-Shaq situations, teams generally want to have FT's on fouls, which opens scoring opportunities for the capable FT shooters who attack the basket. Also, teams that hack don't always have the luxury of putting in a Bubba Wells who otherwise has no other use for the team but to foul and put the bad players at the line. Conservation of team and individual fouls can become a large concern late in game. Anyway, there are several things about today's NBA I don't like as a viewer, and one of them is the obsession with FT's.
They should simply fix the rule so that intentional fouls are techs after 3 or something so that they can stop a dominant player/scorer that can’t shoot free throws a few times only before it starts to negatively affect them by allowing the team fouled “hack a Shaq” to select who can shoot the free throws. Just imagine how many more points the Lakers would have had if Shaq only got hacked three times before they started to hand out free throws to someone like Kobe that can make almost all free throws also allowing Kobe to warm up his shots
*What were the best results of a hacking strategy?* Wouldn't the Spurs have beaten the Clippers anyway? It's not a good sign if a team needs to hack to win.
Why hack a shaq works: Drummond shoots 35% from the line
LaVar Ball no it's cause your trash af and ur not the GOAT
Ringz 321 your profile picture is stephen curry. stfu
Daa Kidd And yours is a pikachu, lmao.
SpanglishPR123 💀💀
SpanglishPR123 and yours is you getting your career ended by me
Lol this is fun
CORRECTION: the non-hacking DeAndre Jordan free throw percentage is 56.0, not 60.6. My bad lol. Thanks for taking 13 minutes out of your day to watch me talk about super nerdy sh*t like this. Appreciate ya.
-Marc
Marc remember to sync the audio to the video, seems like an alien is talking with you on the background :D
MDJ if we thought this was all super nerdy sh*t we wouldn't be subbed
Matteo Pozzebon Yea I had some weird bugs going on, thanks for letting me know
MDJ
Idc if you upload everyday, every week, or every month. As long as you're uploading good insightful content like this that's all that matters. I'm pretty sure that's why we're all here man.
You wrote 66.6% rather than 56.6%
One of the best NBA channels, so detailed and sophisticated.
thank you man
FACTS
I LOVE YOUR CHANNEL
Whats the best
Tbf tho
Why are all the bad free throw shooter named Andre. Andre Drummond, DeANDRE Jordan, Andre Roberson.
Tyler Aven LebAndre James
Andris Biedrins
Wolves bandwagon fan since 1998 you really didn't have to mention your a Lebron fan, but okayyyy
Berzins55 It's close enough to Andre. It's basically the European version of Andre.
european version of Andre.. where do you think the name Andre has its roots?
I just watched a 14 minute video about "Hack-A-Shaq" without even knowing what "Hack-A-Shaq" meant before all because Mark's videos are just so entertaining.
what?
SpeedstackerX123 confirmed for 12 years old
Whenever I listen to terrible mainstream media personalities like colin cowherd, skip bayless, or Stephen a smith talk unobjectively or just spew pure idiocy from their mouths about basketball, I come back to this channel to remind myself that people like you who blend statistics and pure basketball logic exist in the world. Keep it up mark.
If Drummond can sustain a respectable free throw shot he flips the Pistons' late game dynamic a complete 180 degrees. Their best defender can stay on the court in crunch time and be productive at the same time. I'm geeked about that. That should give us the 5 games we needed last year to make the playoffs. And this is what Van Gundy built his Orlando success around.
Stay on the grind mdj
always.
I think they should keep the hack in the game, why reward an NBA PLAYER for being bad at his job he gets paid millions to do?
Quentin McDonald they'll lose if they keep him in
Some NBA Centers are pussies. They could use the Rick Barry method and win, but they'd rather look like "men" and lose.
N Marbletoe underhand doesn't work for everyone though
And reward a lazy defense, making a foul to a player not actively involved? In soccer, that's a red card
SindarNox But its not the defenses fault that the player cant make freethrows
I think the major reason the hack a Shaq exists is in the coaching. The fact is that big guys get taught to shoot by little guys. The big man should be passing it to the basket as opposed to taking an actual shot. Its simple mathematics. The trajectory, maximum, arc, turning point, and force will be drastically different if the starting point is a foot or 2 above how they are taught to shoot. Take Wilt Chamberlain for example. He couldn't make a free throw for the life of him. However, he was an incredible shooter. There are videos of him hitting a ton of 3s in a row whilst being interviewed. People claim to him hitting 20 shots from half court and making each one.
If big guys figure out how to shoot on their own as opposed to the regular form, hack a Shaq will disappear. Form is a super overrated thing. Almost all of the best shooters have their own form. Reggie Miller (imo the greatest all around shooter of all time) has explained this in an open court on tnt.
GiantBeardedFace exactly. They shouldn't have an excuse. The coaching just needs to back off.
2ManyTekkers - Good points. Wilt Chamberlain was the best, purest shooter of all time. Incidentally, Wilt's teammates and opponents nearly unanimously agree that Wilt made them when it mattered. Noone dared to try a Hack-a-Wilt of the sort they do nowadays. An opponent would run out of fouls before you'd run out of Wilt.
Do you still consider reggie Miller the best shooter now?
lets imagine for a second that shooting ability and size are completely independent variables.
we can still conclude with a fair level of confidence that bigger players would be significantly worse shooters because players have to get trough a selection process.
Which means that players who get in the league because of their height will have a significantly worse average ability to shoot regardless of form or anything like that.
you have two variables(x,y) that are somewhere between 0 and 100. you look at 1000 pair of variables and you keep all of the variables that have >80 in on of the variables.
If you look at all the Y values of the pairs that were selected for their high X value...they are going to average out to roughly 0.5(or the average value if we had a perfectly random distribution)
or to put it simply...a tall guy who can't shoot has better odds of making it into the nba than a short guy who can't shoot.
@@DIVAD291 looks like some discrete math
Well not in 2k you can hack shaq and he will make them
This is the best analysis on hack-a-Shaq I've seen. It addresses all the problems, such as rhythm and transition, that I've thought about but never really seen talked about from anyone.
I study maths at a university in Greece and all I can say is that your channel is awesome , especially when the video has to do with statistics and analytics . Keep up the good work ! (I am sure you will , it is pretty obvious that you love making this kind of videos)
+George Kiriazidis thanks😊
greek as well
*All these big words hurting my head😂😂*
Brandon Smith 😂
Mojo your vids are amazing! Keep it up!
hakeem is the goat because he is the best defender of all time 1st in blocks and 6th in steals for a center that is amazing and Hakeem is 11th all time in points and hakeem is 13th in rebounds and led the Rockets to back to back championships one of the Rockets team won the Championship as the 6th seed
Juan David Vergara Arias It's personal opinion
Juan David Vergara Arias boom roasted
It's relevant because Hakeem was not hackable at 71%. He was capable in every aspect of the game. I would also take Hakeem as first choice for my historical team.
THANK YOU
N Marbletoe you da real mvp
Never thought about it, but this strategy looks pretty efficient
Please make some videos on other basketball tactics and strategies
Of course, you're not a couch, but it seems you actually have an idea of how this game is played
I agree, he is not a couch...
As always MDJ dropping quality content, keep it up dude
Why are so many players with "andre" in their name so bad at free throws?? DeANDRE Jordan, ANDRE Roberson, ANDRE Drummond, ANDRE Iguodala.....DO A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON THAT hahahaha 😂
+Chansoo Samuel Pak 😂😂😂
who ever copied the other need to kill themself
I'm actually a data analytics ISE Major from osu, and I'm trying to get a job in sports analytics. Not that that matters at all, I'm just some college kid who thinks he's smarter than he is, but I've noticed that if we define "fast break" to be any offensive possession which includes 3 or less defenders, and define "transition" to be offensive possessions wherein the initial, offensive action takes place before all 5 defenders are"set," the numbers start to shake out much closer to how we expect them to. Half court systems are far less efficient than fast breaks for all teams, but depending on the personnel, the efficiency of transition possessions is super varied. Note: set is defined to be when a defender is in proper position between his man and the rim, and initial offensive action as the first drive or pass in the half court. Hopefully some bball nerds find this interesting, God knows I do.
Underrated Channel
I love these number crunching videos! The first video I watched about Lou Williams and shooting streaks with the Probabilities and Confidence Intervals made me subscribe to this channel. Make more of these! This is what separates MDJ from the rest of the NBA CZcams community.
Nice job as always Mark.
appreciate it!
We used to make lots of fun about him, but good ol' Don Nelson was clearly on something when he created that.
Note: It could be argued that it was created far earlier as "Hack a Wilt" but the foul rules were slightly different back then, even though they endured a much bigger makeover when the Big Dipper arrived.
The momentum part really is a two-edged sword. I always feel when a team hacks someone they also take away their own chance to build up momentum. Best way to get momentum is with some easy buckets in transition and, like you said in the video, there are not many of them after free throws.
This guy's using his intelligence in a good way
If you want to quantify momentum in a most basic way, I'd say it could be as simple as (total PER of players on the floor for a team) * (points for - points against) / (game time elapsed), where points for and against correspond to the game time in question. It's analogous to the definition of momentum in physics, p = m*v. In this application, "mass" is represented by some measure of the quality of players on the floor, as represented by the sum of the five players' PER (could be some other measure), and "velocity" is net scoring per unit time.
I highly appreciate you making the point that numbers alone aren't reality, perception alone isn't reality, but both in conjunction concluding the same thing is reality and is significant.
This topic is so interesting that I'm doing a research paper on this for school lol keep up the great videos!!
Another note, transition plays are more efficient even though transition plays are never drawn up (drawn up plays are also higher efficiency).
All these bigs needs to do is practice the free throw. Repeated movements gets results and learns the ways of getting it done. Muscle memory will set in once you're used to it.
And there's the "grandma shot" it may look bad but effective.. very effective.
I have watched Hack A Shaq strategy since its beginning. I have rarely seen it work especially over periods of longer than 2 minutes. Why? Here is what my theory is in regards to this theory. 1. In order to make this theory work the team that is applying the Hack A Shaq strategy has to shoot a FG% greater or close enough to make the point differential work. The same way that the 3pt shot now is considered the more efficient shot to shoot. But this theory only works too if you shoot the ball at a certain percentage. Otherwise the team will lose every game that they will play. The longer you attempt this theory the more likely both teams will not budge on position of who is winning or losing. 2. The more times you send a poor FT shooter to the line the more pressure it puts on your opposing Defense. Thus can effect your teams defensive rating because now your players could be in foul trouble and now has to play with less aggression because of this situation. 3. As pointed out the Hack A Shaq theory will halt all teams momentum during a game and can hurt you chances of coming back or sustaining a lead. This is especially true if the poor FT shooter makes the second FT instead of the first on attempted. 4 and final observation is that often times when you place a poor FT shooter on the line the FT shooter can sometimes get into a rhythm and knock down a much higher FT % than he normally would if he went to the line in a normal pace of the game than continually being sent to the line. Overall this theory can work but it should be utilized in the right time otherwise at the most of the time this theory often becomes more of a wash when it is spread over a 2 to 5 minute span.
wellll we all know the smartest nba youtuber... :) great vid Marc
at 2:00 i think your math is a little off, a 60.6% FT% would be a 1.212 PPP not a 1.12 PPP, it'd be 56% for him to equal the offensive rating of 112 given. good video tho, brought a lot of factors together, would've been interesting if you mentioned the other team getting into foul trouble too
There is also the effect of stopping the clock as well
Fast break can work if everyone is on board. Just another factor on how the game has changed. The warriors can employ a transition fast break from a missed free throw, but only until the other team realizes they have to play every minute they are on the court.
Hi @MDJ! First up, let me start by saying that I generally like your videos! It's a heady and thoughtful approach. Regarding this particular video, I really appreciate that you brought up "momentum" as an impact variable. Now, I'm NOT a video gamer these days (waaay too time consumptive), but back in the 90s there was a game called NBA Jam which took momentum into gaming theory consideration with a concept called "catching fire." I'm operating solely from memory, but the concept had to do with the number of times in a row that a player hit a shot to "catch fire," ergo having a momentum or rhythm (you brought that up, too) that could swing a single game (which you also referenced), and once the player was on fire that player was good for impossible shots from anywhere on the court for a certain amount of time. I certainly don't drill down into statistics enough to even know if data like this is being gathered/analyzed by the NBA or independent statisticians, but "catching fire" could viably have notable impact on the variables you brought up (fast breaks, offensive and defensive rating, offensive rebounding, FREE THROWS, etc). Last thing: if you hadn't considered it, you may want to consider a career in quantitative modeling in the world of investments (if you like making a lot of money), or as a data scientist in sports quantitative analysis (if you like doing stuff that wouldn't feel like a job). If you got this far on my post, thanks for reading my ramble and for the videos!
Based on my own vast experience playing basketball, a momentum swing for better or worse can happen from only one play, but it's impossible to quantify. For instance, in this CZcamsr's analysis, hack-a-shaq can interfere with the opposing offense's rhythm, but it also interferes with the fouling team's rhythm. I vaguely recall reading about a statistical analysis that found the team whose player was intentionally fouled a bunch had a better DRTG on the opponent's next possession, probably due to being able to properly set and rest.
@@PoochieCollins That is a great point re interfering with the opposing offense's rhythm! Waaay back in another lifetime, while at my first college football game (back in the 70s? 80? Notre Dame vs Army at The Meadowlands), I first learned about "icing the kicker" with a timeout right before a field goal attempt. Same tactic is used in basketball and it is psychologically effective and can indeed break a team's flow, regardless of sport.
60% from the line is something every basketball player can and SHOULD achieve. They're professionals after all and a mechanics of a shot can be improved with help from shooting pros. If the problem of a specific player isn't motion-wise but psychological than a shooting coach won't help much, and the player will either stay the way he is or get better with some psychological help.
The league average for free throw percentage is what, 76%? achieving 60% is still much less than the average, it's definitely doable for each player for which this is his job and livelihood.
When did this start? when Shaq was so dominant over others and it was basically the only sure way of making him a liability. The only way you could defend effectively against him was to grab him on some point on the court without any relation to the actual game going on. But today it has progressed to be a strategic tool that is used based on percentages and not dominance.
The bottom line regarding the 'hack-a' method is that the fouls being called are not related to the game really, it's a random player holding another random player away from the ball. What does it has to do with the game of basketball? you could have mentioned this as a point in the video.
Once the league changes the rule that a foul away from the ball is more like a technical and give the other team one free throw and the ball the whole 'hack-' thing will stop and we could enjoy watching players PLAY and not standing on a line shooting twice without anyone disturbing them. It's a strategy, a loop-hole, that people exploit, nothing more.
I'm downloading this video. Because there's no way something this good is going to remain essentially free for long.
hahahah it'll remain free man. All I ask for is for your support.
Would love to see numbers how hack-a-shaq influences ORtg of the team when running this strategy. You are right about the fact a lot of things can't be quantified here, but this one definitely could. NBA should consider adding hack-a-shaq as a metric in their stat cubes
+MDJ it's possible, maybe even probable, that teams have information on momentum because you almost always see coaches call timeouts when the opposing team goes on a run. Granted this is often because there was some type of defensive or even offensive breakdown the coach wants to discuss with his team, but even those times when their team is playing well & the opposing team is just shooting lights out, coaches still seem to call timeouts.
Edit: Btw, love the video!
I think momentum and rythm can be explained by the players settling in a flow and muscle memory starts kicking in
It can be a player own shooting or the team running sets and plays
Once u hack a player u stop everything and break it
Yo mdj you should read up/research flow states aka the point where difficulty and ease meet where it's the Goldilocks zone of not too hard to discourage and not too easy where it's boring. This, of course is in reference to rhythm and sort of momentum
This video is so great! So informative, and as somebody who loves both math and basketball, it is great to find somebody who makes videos that address both. Keep up the great work! Best channel by far
Great video! But I'd like to point out a thing that you missed out which is personal fouls and team fouls. Both will give you disadvantages and would probably cause poor defensive performance. Great content though, love your videos
MDJ you should have started by explaining what the strategy is because some people might not know what it is. But otherwise great work, love your vids.
The hack a Shaq should still be in the NBA to punish bad free throw shooters
Stephen Lin it's not really a centers fought besides that then yes.
We can't quantify confidence and rhythm and momentum and such because we know very little about the human brain and how people think. If we think of mathmatics as another language used to explain information in the form of numbers, then in theory anything can be quantified. It's just a matter if we know enough to explain it in english to translate it to math and then back to english, or whatever language you choose to speak.
I think another thing you need to account for with this is the value of the foul to hack the player. If you sub in a bench scrub to foul you're losing production on offense but if you keep in the regular rotation they are forced to use their fouls and potentially have to sit later in the game.
+Erik Andersen yea that's true too, altho that's a situation that's pretty circumstancial, usually it's easy to find players who aren't in emergency foul trouble
0:45 TRAVELLING!
CP3 and Harden the plane brothers.....get it....no......ok.
Lol, they love to travel together
The video was great! But you forgot to mention I believe one of the most important reasons that it works. It let's you exploit the positive margin that you create in (points scored-points taken) per posession in one extra way. in 2 minutes normally there are 3 posessions for each team but with hack a Shaq there are 5-6 meaning bigger total scoring margin because of more repetitions of the positive (points scored-points taken) per posession margin
I think the most damaging aspect of hack-a-shaq is just to change the pace of the game entirely. It's such a stupid and weird exploitation of the rules that it kills any momentum that either team has been building. For younger teams and younger players who relies more on having the hot-hand, it can actually be a lethal problem when you playing against a very organized team, for example, like the Spurs who are disciplined and runs the halfcourt offense really well.
at 10:15 you said "Lower confidence generally leads to lower effectiveness". I would disagree and say it's the other way around, if you're missing shots then you will not be confident that you will hit the others and rightfully so
Basketball and a little stats, excellent video MDJ
My favorite analytics example: in one NBA Finals, the Cavs players decided-- in the middle of the game, not in the final seconds-- that with Kevin Durant in transition at mid-court, it made sense to double team Curry behind the 3 point line (where he would've probably shot 42% in single coverage, i.e., an expected 1.26 points per possession) and go ahead and concede the entirely uncontested, no defender within 20 feet, dunk to KD, where he was likely to make it only 99.9% of the time, i.e., a mere expected 1.998 points per possession). I mean... why let Curry score 1.26 points when you could hold KD to a mere 1.998 points? Analytics, no?
lolol
Doesnt the average offensive rating include posessions where DJ gets hacked? Shouldn't you split the two to see what the offensive rating is of a regular half court posession
What about fouling? If you’re implementing the hack a shaq strategy don’t you have to worry about your players fouling out?
Believe they let the bench players do it
Another good vid MDJ. Would have been cool to discuss what strategically Hack-A-Shaq does by using up fouls and keeping less useful players on the court to eat up those fouls. You kinda disclaimered it by using non quantifiable examples to consider, so I am just nitpicking. Still keep up the good work!
+Pedro Lopez thanks man!
Cool viewpoints. Never thought about it like that
@MDJ I wonder how fouls adding up on opposing teams could add an element to the game and strategies down sides.
Honestly I have to be in a certain mood/headspace to absorb ur content properly... So I may not click on the notification...BUT ...BUT when I do, I end up binging!
In short, this is not toilet viewing.
U can use this as a quote if u want..
"Not toilet viewing" and we all know what that means... no, really, if I stay focused I legitamtly feel informed. And smarter about hoops
Is there an "advantage" or play on rule in bball like in football (soccer) amd if not do you think one could be implemented to stop the hack a shaq strategy? (Btw this rule basically lets a team play on if they are fouled but still have a chance at goal however of the attack breaks down the team is pulled back for a free kick)
Ever wondered why three different players coached by Stan Van Gundy all ended up being hacking targets. The three are Shaquille O'Neal, Dwight Howard, and Andre Drummond. Stan Van Gundy is the common factor. It's not the players, its the coaching. More specifically, its the MANDATORY training regimens that the players must follow, combined with a coach that deliberately humiliates and scapegoats the player being hacked.
I liked before I watched. I already know what to expect from MDJ, good, quality videos that exceed my expectations everytime
🙌
Yk I often notice when deandre gets hacked he shoots better from the line. To me it makes sense because he gets to shoot the ball repeatedly
one exampel for momentum is when a game starts and one score 4 points and get verry confident. and the maby win the game.
Transition includes both fast break and secondary break
This video was nerdy and dope thanks for sharing.
Your'e videos are so amazing so underrated
came here for great basketball content came out buying a chair thanks MDJ
Great work! Momentum is a phenomenal energy. Yes it is a tool or a weapon used at war in history, and today.
Your choice of words is pretty good.
Home court advantage impact would be a cool video
If I understand it correctly, the Julius Randle theorem/effect can be applied to Drummond and his free throw shooting thus far this season.
This dude is too smart, I should head over to OSN's channel lol.
Maybe confidence and momentum can be measured but to our knowledge we don't know how to. But it is possible
MDJ just roasted Andre Roberson
At the 2 min mark of the Video, MDJ says DeAndre has to shoot 60.6% from the free-throw line to equal the clippers 1.12 PPP.
Shouldn't it be 56%?
0.56×2=1.12
0.606×2=1.212
Great video otherwise, just noticed a small mistake.
I LOVE YOUR VIDEOS DUDE. YOURE LITERALLY ONE OF MY FAV CZcamsRS!! KEEP IT UP 100k COMING SOON
+Seaaryy thanks bro
I think free throw training needs to be revised for people around 7 feet. The biomechanics must be completely different.
The training regimens teams demand of their leading rebounder(s) emphasize shoulder strength training and gross motor skills. Free throw shooting is a fingertip, fine motor skill. The constant, intense training in order to maximize reaching for rebounds and blocking shots, and training for upper body strength causes constant inflammation of the arms and shoulders. Big guys like them don't make the team for their free throw shooting.
Idea for next video: biggest trade between rivals in NBA history
This may be the most interesting basketball video I have ever watched
Randle was more effective because he had an incentive to play on D because he got the ball. Its why teams always post up their big man at the start of games
So while I agree that Hack-a-Shaq works to an extent, there's a reason it's still used sparingly.
I think you underestimate how big the lack of faastbreak and transition offense in general impacts all NBA teams in these situations. I can't really find stats on this, but I'm pretty sure there is a big dropoff in the opposing offense after a free throw, probably even bigger when it's made.
Hey Marc, this is kind of coming out of my curiosity, but you seem to have a VERY high basketball IQ. I was wondering whether you actually played ball or not. I'm rather new to your channel and really intrigued by your content. Anyways, best of luck for the future.
+Taimur Mirza haha I did, although i was never a very good player. Thanks
a factor you didnt address is putting your team in the penalty. if you hack a shaq, you will wind up putting the other team on the line for even non-shooting fouls. this will cost a team 2-6 points per game. i think the strategy rarely works unless youre talking about sub40-45% free throw shooters.
At 1:56 -- How do you come up with the number 60.6% for what DeAndre Jordan would have to shoot in order to score at the Clippers' average offensive rating?
60.6% × 2 free throws = 1.12 points per possession
@@micmcmic7226 Yes. But is 60.6% x 2 free throws = 1.12?
I really don't get the people who say "hack-a-shaq" kills the spirit of the game. As the video says, if somebody in the opponent has FT shooting worse than the offensive rating, you can do it to gain advantage. First, you really destroy their momentum and it becomes more and more frustrating for the hacked player. That person could shoot even worse than his average under pressure. If he shoots like 35%, I guess it is pretty fair to say that hacking is the best defensive strategy.
This felt like a math class.
Mike Korzembas favorite stat is PER and MDJ's is analytics
Bro you should upload your videos on Chinese websites like Youku and Tencent. People would be crazy for videos like this! Trust me. Your videos are much more entertaining than some top 10 plays of a player. Chinese are really smart and they love numbers. You just need to have someone does the subtitle for you. But you can be really big and get a lot more attention than what u have now. You can start from Microblog (Weibo)
Another thing about hack-a-Shaq is teams have to consider if they want to concede putting the other team in the penalty and burning fouls for individual players. Except in hack-a-Shaq situations, teams generally want to have FT's on fouls, which opens scoring opportunities for the capable FT shooters who attack the basket. Also, teams that hack don't always have the luxury of putting in a Bubba Wells who otherwise has no other use for the team but to foul and put the bad players at the line. Conservation of team and individual fouls can become a large concern late in game.
Anyway, there are several things about today's NBA I don't like as a viewer, and one of them is the obsession with FT's.
DeAdnre 😂 1:22
They should simply fix the rule so that intentional fouls are techs after 3 or something so that they can stop a dominant player/scorer that can’t shoot free throws a few times only before it starts to negatively affect them by allowing the team fouled “hack a Shaq” to select who can shoot the free throws. Just imagine how many more points the Lakers would have had if Shaq only got hacked three times before they started to hand out free throws to someone like Kobe that can make almost all free throws also allowing Kobe to warm up his shots
Hey mark where do you go to school?
*What were the best results of a hacking strategy?* Wouldn't the Spurs have beaten the Clippers anyway? It's not a good sign if a team needs to hack to win.
you make great content. Very interesting and fun to watch
what about the hack a shaq rule??
Love the videos,keep up the good work
this is great analysis man!
great video as always
Bro my mind is exploding