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Decoding Geopolitics with Dominik Presl
United Kingdom
Registrace 10. 11. 2023
Do you have a question? You can reach me at: dominik.presl@amo.cz
Why Invading Taiwan Is So Incredibly Difficult, Explained
In 1944, at the height of the Second World War, the United States military was preparing for an invasion of Taiwan. Its code name was Operation Causeway and Formosa, as the island was called at the time, was an important outpost of the Japanese imperial army.
The U.S. at the time had a standing force of more than 10 million soldiers, it had successfully pulled off the Normandy landing, the largest amphibious invasion in history and it had numerical and technological superiority over the Japanese.
But in the end, they decided to call off the invasion. Why? Because the world's most powerful military decided that it was just too difficult.
Today, we often talk about the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, whether they'll do it and what it might look like, but we often forget that doing so would mean pulling off one of the most difficult military operations in history. One that even the U.S. didn't want to go through and one that would be much much more complicated today, than it was back then.
So, why is it so hard?
The U.S. at the time had a standing force of more than 10 million soldiers, it had successfully pulled off the Normandy landing, the largest amphibious invasion in history and it had numerical and technological superiority over the Japanese.
But in the end, they decided to call off the invasion. Why? Because the world's most powerful military decided that it was just too difficult.
Today, we often talk about the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, whether they'll do it and what it might look like, but we often forget that doing so would mean pulling off one of the most difficult military operations in history. One that even the U.S. didn't want to go through and one that would be much much more complicated today, than it was back then.
So, why is it so hard?
zhlédnutí: 8 733
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"We have allowed...", Chinese achieve what they achieved because you have allowed it. Just hear yourself. Racist much?!
Theyll blockade, suicide to land
3 Gorges Bridge.
Every time such a discussion occurs, I always have to point out that there is a small archipelago about 50km offshore of Taiwan called Penghu, or the Pescadores. It's flat and difficult to defend, and outside of most artillery pieces that could be fired from the main island. There are existing naval and airport facilities on the island too. Taking Penghu would give PLA a nice staging point for an invasion that is much closer than the video suggests.
These war games grossly overestimate the logistical capacity of the PLA. Those soldiers would run out of food and ammunition long before they won
Russia has killed itself with incompetent military leadership. They make glaring mistakes. Mistakes so bad you scratch your head, just a lack of the most common military mistakes. It’s like they have never had any history,or basic fighting knowledge.
Thats hilarious 😂🤣😂 unbelievable stupidity
This is the guy who lied about 401k's. He must be an expert on everything.
Historical aspect is very important in Russia- Ukraine war. That the inhabitants of East Ukraine consider themselves Russian is one of the root causes of the war. East Ukraine was illegally annexed to the then nascent Ukraine but the communist dictator Lenin and people still remember it.
Stupid Content
I don't think China would have issues losing 1 or 2 million while trying to reach the island.
Damn!!! The attitude towards curruption in the Russian military and government is crazy!!! Corruption is just part of their culture.....results speak for themself. Lolol, how are Russian Leaders gonna hold their Soldiers to a standard, teach accountability, build cohesion, fight for eachother and instill trust when the whole damn chaim of command is corrupt (in more ways than one) and the poor russian private is just hoping his commanders havent purchased his plate carrier and plates from Temu, and pocketed the difference......until Russian society changes wont see much change in their military. That is wonderful for Nato!!! I understand curruption can happen anywhere but I am blessed and fortunate i served 20+ years in the US Army. I couldn't imagine having to serve in an organization or military like that. It was definitely not easy but at least when i served i didnt have to worry about not getting paid, worry about the quality of my equipment, or worry about others not doing thier job. I trusted the whole dang organization from top to bottom, left to right, and front to rear. Being able to have that trust as a Soldier is very underrated....especially in Russia it seems.
Russia gains more territory then they won
What is stopping the ccp from building artificial land up to Taiwanese shore?
Every time someone tells me:"I'm a prophet, I can look into the future, I know what's going to happen" I always just grins and ask myself:"then why don't you work as advisor to presidents ?" 😂
China's best chance of invading Taiwan successfully will be September-October this year. If you agree or if it's already happened by the time you see this, and you want a better understanding of the history that led here or what's likely to happen next, consider reading "Dragon's Prey: Will China Invade Taiwan in 2024?" or "Destined For War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?" or "The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan's Defense and American Strategy in East Asia."
So you guys take in every information this dude tells you without fact checking those information? We already knows how he lied about USA leading China on the technology front. Here the fact according to aspi"china leads in 34 out of 44 core technologies
Clueless as usual. According to aspi, China leads in 34 out of 44 core technologies and what this dude said about space, maybe ask him why Boeing hasn't brought back those 2 stranded austronat?
Lol how could usa win when USA is in debt and China hold those debt lol.
You're doing good work Dominik. Keep it up
It's virtually impossible - China's best bet is a blockade - however, China itself is highly susceptible to being blockaded - they're the world's largest importers of food & energy So while China is hoping to starve out Taiwan, which also enjoys huge defensive advantages, China will be getting starved out "China's Navy is so much bigger than America's" yeah by number of ships, not by tonnage, and let alone the deep water capabilities of each, and increasing tensions around the Red Sea, etc.....literally zero danger of an invasion attempt succeeding However, that's also NOT to say that China could not cause immense damage on their way down
This guy makes me laugh. Zelensky runs around organizing a path to negotiations through third parties, meanwhile Russia has him pinned to the mat. The loser never dictates the terms .
According to insider sources in Germany and Russia, so far Putin has lost between 60 and 63 thousand soldiers killed. Ukraine according to estimates has lost conservatively 600,000 dead and almost 1 million wounded . That is why some Ukrainians themselves, have organized against Zelensky and are sabotaging Military recruiter vehicles all over Ukraine ( video you can see for yourself on the Military Summary channel as of seven hours ago). Don't believe me...believe the videos.
I don’t mean to bash the US because they saved our acres in a big way during WW2 however to state that they successfully managed Dday the world’s largest wartime marine landing is stretching reality waaaaay to far it was the Royal Navy that organised and managed it (very well) obviously with our allies assisting. The reality is it was a joint effort with the logistics being done majority by RN! In Asia the US could have invaded Taiwan successfully but it would have been a potentially very costly operation and as it turns out ultimately pointless, they made the correct choice which saved countless US service mens lives as such I think they very solidly made the right decision
As an American, I agree absolutely.
Useless Western ramblings
They should probably just take them over through migration over decades
The main island of Taiwan is certainly difficult to invade, but the rest of it is within shouting distance of the Chinese coast, which is a dead set cinch to take over and hold, because what are the Americans and Taiwanese going to do, attack those islands when they’re occupied, and for what purpose? If the Chinese are going to take Taiwan, they’ll start with the nearby islands, then wait and see how the world responds.
Would be play a lottery a day too late
I am a Taiwanese who has worked in China for two years. CCP is so corrupted. If they do try to mobilize a large scale blockade or invasion, their ships , jets, tanks… the equipment quality is highly questionable. Not that Taiwan is any where near the level of strong military, but the rotten core of PLA is our best safe guard
The US is dead f’ing serious about defending Taiwan.
Why is this necessary? China manufacturers products we need and no longer make for ourselves. The average person in the West doesn’t want war with China or over Ukraine or the Middle East. It’s just these warmongering neocons. To think that the major nuclear powers can resort to conventional warfare to settle their differences makes no sense. Wars become existential so how does it not end up in nuclear brinksmanship? The situation between China and Taiwan results from a civil war in China long ago that the Nationalists lost. It’s their own business not ours. Facilities to manufacture semiconductors could be built elsewhere. We certainly don’t want a nuclear war over it.
great video thanks , Also Chinese army is considered the most corrupt in the world , where offices can buy their rank and also be given rank by high up members of the CCP . for example , XI wife the army danser holds the rank of Major general, Mao su Tungs grand sun who is considered a slow learner and mentally handicapped holds the rank of General .
It’s not about the insertion of the soldiers onto Taiwan beaches- it’s the logistics of maintaining those troops given the temperamental cross strait weather !!!! This is a foolish idea to even attempt!!!!! 😅😅😅😅
this guy is a idiot
Have you had a hair transplant?
The silver lining of the Ukraine war may very well be that it has deterred China from invading Taiwan.
Great presentation
The US is a falling Empire- and it knows it.
AGAIN
Invasion vs Conquer. If the CCP wishes to bring Taiwan under its control, it does not need to invade Taiwan. Taiwan has about 26 million residents. Mainland China has about 1,000 million citizens. China does not need the Taiwanese people. China could kill nearly all of them without invading or using nuclear weapons. Normal military kinetic force, starvation and disease could eliminate nearly the total population within 6 months. What the CCP want is to bring the island or land mass of Taiwan under it's control. This would secure China's access to the broader Pacific Ocean. The US and it's allies could fairly easily block China's maritime access. The plan of the CCP is for China to become self sufficient. And be able to prevent the domination of its mainland by outside forces. This may be doable in about 10 years. By 2035. Plus : why would the West care about what happens to 1 billion mainland Chinese.?
Frst, china co no want to start the war, but cooperate. Second, it is to unify Taiwan but not invade.
Never heard those weather notes before. Weather was huge impact on timing of Normandy Invasion. AND the Allies had the benefit of the Dieppe Raid as practice to learn from. No Dieppe for this invasion.
Slava Ukraini 🇬🇧🇺🇦
best podcast in CZcams
Nice video. According to recent studies by RAND, it seems that a naval blockade is a likely alternative to invasion. It would be interesting to see your analysis of such a scenario, especially vis a vis food security.
Taiwan is the new east Berlin might be the stupidest thing I ever heard.
That's because he didn't say that. Why would Taiwan be East Berlin? It's not communist. He said West Berlin, because it's risky and difficult to defend for the US, but very important.
Thank you!
The video uses parts of my interview with Mark F. Cancian - you can find the whole interview about wargaming the Taiwan invasion here: czcams.com/video/nE61S9BpDek/video.htmlsi=ZSh6rHpsqASvO7os
Potato consumption is up in Russia, they can not afford more expensive food, sounds good to me.
The thing is we may not have massive ground forces ammunition but we have enough bombs to at least halt any Russian advances with sea and air power alone. That would give us time to remp up. Luckily this has been a wake up call and production is increasing and the EU is setting uo its own military or trying. We have enough ammo to defend the baltics. The thing is we need cheap weapons not just expensive ones. Small fpv drones that dont cost as much as the switch blade. We also see it is unimaginably expensive to purchase ammunition because of the monopolies they have. It would be a good businessbto set up a factory to build 155 artillery rounds. Those facilities should be buikt around all allied countries to include the pacific for China. HIMARS ammo for example is slow to build. We would have to use the defense production act to turn factories into ammo factories. We need to build ships and planes quicker.
They will feed you with shit, and you're gonna ask for more. Happy eating.