8 Reasons House Prices ARE Collapsing in 2024
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- čas přidán 19. 03. 2024
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Original 2022 "8 Reasons house prices will collapse" video here: • 8 Reasons UK House Pri...
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I'm sick of overpricing, agent lies, constant false positive pr in msm. Yes prices are being reduced but from ridiculous starting points. I went to view a 2 bed terrace on Saturday, on at £265k, was purchased by the owner in 2021 for £205k, no additional work done. Offered 255k, estate agent calls me Monday morning to say rejected as have had higher offers. Ok I say. Check today and property still for sale....
Some estate agent don't mark a property as "under offer" until proof of funds, conveyancing details etc, have been submitted and approved.
@@Michelle-72 Wasn't aware of that , thanks. Trouble is I asked one of my work colleagues to call the agent to see if it was still for sale, yes was the reply.
@@TheThebrocksget your friend to go and view it and offer them £245,000!!
Spot on bubbles. Even £245k is generous. Offer should have been made in writing in Charlie's prescribed way.
@TheThebrocks It does happens sometimes. Most likely offer , even though higher than yours was still below the asking price or perhaps buyer was not in position to buy yet ,meaning they still didn't sell their house. Agent still counts this offer but Seller may decide to wait for better offers.
This has happened to us.
We've put an offer for house - matching the asking price.
There was another couple which I happen to know and they also placed their offer , also matching the asking price.
My position - house not sold yet. Their position - they had an offer and only just started the selling process.
Dispite two offers at asking price , seller decided to wait another week.
Finally accepted cash buyer whos offer was under the asking price - she wanted uncomplicated, quick sale.
The over pricing seems ridiculous right now ! Property im interested in my area sold for 390k in 2020 and just listed for 500k a nearly 30% increase in under 4 years with no renovations done whatsoever 😮, love the property but where do you start negotiating a fair price when starting point is so overpriced?
my brother offered 250k on a property that sold in 2020 for 220k. Guy wanted 270k and refused to go below 265k lol Absolutely nothing about it had changed from before. utterly deluded.
Don't but yet, prices will drop just matter of this year! They are trying really hard to keep them up until general election
Offer 389,000..just for the look on their faces
@@stevesecret4782 😂
It depends how one measures the increase. Google up BOE inflation calculator and find out how much you would need to match the purchasing power of 390k in 2020 today. I am getting 475k. I see 500k as an increase of 5%. Anything below 475k is a win.
My opinion is that with companies going bust , unemployment rising every day until 2026 house prices will go lower and lower . I think the BOE will keep the rate at 5.25% until next year . Some friends of ours bought a new build for 410k and now they have lost about 50 to 60k in equity and they are normal working people but they went above their means keeping up with the joneses and they are stressed out of their minds knowing they will have to pay more when they will have to do the remortgage . I am willing to bet against the UK market to be honest . Checked the market right now , a 5 bedroom house in Houghton Regis, Bedfordshire 300k , never seen a 5 bedroom this cheap so it is starting to bite .
Hell will freeze over before prices get sensible
You meant the market will freeze?
He means prices will not fall, to sensible levels@@YaQ1988
Point No. 9, why this will go on much longer. By 2030 it will be very difficult to sell a house with an EPC rating of D - G, due to the 2023 Energy Act. The average UK rating is D. Upgrade costs can be in the tens of thousands. Prices should adjust down to take this into account. As more people realise this there should be more properties coming to the market to avoid it in favour of newer properties. This should be seen as a fundamental structural change to the market, but may not be factored in for some time yet.
Simple solution.
Agents SHOULD NOT be able to value secondary market properties. A property should have a survey completed before sale and then the price set buy the valuer / buyer. IF the sale gets lots of interest, sealed bids for the property. Best and final, let the seller decided the sale value. If it doesn't sell, then offers and price reductions by the agent.
We also need to streamline the conveyancing process with all the paper work and searches in before it is marketed.
This increases the commitment from the seller and speeds up conveyancing.
Agreed, like Scotland. But getting that system implemented in the face of vested interests who don't want it is not so simple.
Why would anyone agree to sell their house this way?
People own their property, they have the absolute right to ask for whatever they want from that property. Why should anyone hand the ability to evaluate their own belonging to the person that wants to buy it?
@@ElliotAnthony so instead get 3 agents round that have little or no idea how much a house is worth, telling lies to clients that the hope they can land a buyer, for a price reduction in 4 weeks. Lead by lower offers, which the vendor feels are to low as it was priced to high to start with. Ha
I have been looking to buy something for 4 years and we still got overpriced junk
It's always been like this.
I'm nearly 3 , you soon realise that even if house prices are ment to come down they just don't as agents just keep putting up asking prices and play people against eachother to get a higher price
People have been predicting a house price crash for decades. It never comes and never will whilst immigration is at current levels. Too many people chasing too few properties.
@@reggie3828 THIS
Same here,was ready to buy but COVID came.At least prices have come down a bit and you have a choice to pick something better than 1 or two years ago.
i've been looking at east yorkshire and one house has been on sale for 2 years and has been reduced from 300k to 250k and still not sold. Identical house in worse state of repair is put up for sale two doors down. How much? £300k .
I've been looking since 2020 and the number of suitable properties for sale has gone from around 40 to 180 and its still rising.
Plenty of testimony that following Charlie enables inexperienced buyers to buy at a sensible price or else sit tight. Also getting the right people in your corner makes sense. Charlie's the right person at the right time. If you want alternative advice a house builder near me says " buy now, selling fast".
Maybe. Maybe.
No way of knowing what's best for other people to do. Sitting tight is bad if the market is rising. I previously have bid higher than asking because I felt there is an urgency to get that deal done. If your dream house is just 1 more extra year of mortgage payments away, would you be willing to stump up the extra?
Sitting is too passive. Viewing is what gets the deals. If you really want something and the price isn’t quite right, continue dialogue with the agent. Be that squeaky wheel that gets the oil.
I’m hoping interest rates get to 7% as a minimum.
Slow the housing market and the car leasing market down.
Stupid people are borrowing money they don’t have to impress people they don’t know.
All these daft people then paying almost zero into a pension.
We are going to see a major problem in a few years when a lot of people get to 65 and realise they have a total pension of £15/20K a year and they still have a mortgage and 2 leased cars on the drive.
Easy way to spot people on lower salaries, they always have 2 expensive leased cars on the drive and everything is branded.
Offers OVER X amount can be B.S.
Last Feb/March our E.A. put my terraced house on the market for
“Offers OVER £460,000."
House sale was completed in August for £420,000.
The house was in one of London’s cheapest suburbs inside the M25.
It applies to the current housing market but just about everything these days I think we are living in the twilight zone people are so detached from reality!
I take my hat off to you Charlie that you persist at getting through the fog of denial & ignorance in the house selling game. You are more patient than l would be.
The truth is like Poetry and people f*cking hate poety.
This is a great channel with excellent information & advice. 👏
Thank you
Poetry of poety they hate?
Thank you Charlie
i hope so because all i see up north is prices selling for more than i think they are worth,a market that making people buy thinking the prices are rising, and prices that have risen over the last few months, i hope things go downhill and propertys become cheaper
Where? Where where where?? Please say where as it’s helpful to people.
Are you talking about Manchester ???
Definitely West Yorkshire 🖐️
@@MovingHomewithCharlie i would say anywhere north of wigan so all lancashire and cumbria, preston , blackpool cumbria, also crossing into the north east and yorkshire, i see 3 bed semis needing loads of work that should be 20k less defo selling, including ones that have been sitting for 2-3 months as the bargins from a year ago have all gone and people are buying before it gets anyworse, i wish and hope what you say is true but at the moment it seems the opposite, however i do feel what you say makes sense and will possibly make a correction at somepoint as the issues you say take hold however, all the top half of the country the prices a year ago was good ,now people are paying more in a fear that they will be even worse
@@sunshinechild-sv9kc I am in south east (RH area) and good houses at my price point (£450k) are selling rapidly here too. All but 1 of the houses on my watchlist sold this year. I actually put in an offer on the 1 that has not sold (offered more than the 2021 sold price and about 7% below asking) that was rejected.
Looking at Midsummer. Seems like a nice area but I'm worried about the high murder rate.
🤣🤣🤣🤣
I live there already and am trying to escape 🤣🤣
But having John Nettles as a neighbour will double the value of your property if you decide to purchase there!
Need to build more houses on our great continent and more immigration and everything will work out. The economy is great in the protection industry. The politicians have spent 13 million on their own protection and apparently 191 million to protect mosques.
They aren't going to stop themselves earning more "fees" until a sale is locked-in.
The house next door has been on the market for months - and is coming down in price to a point where a viewing occurs.... But a four bed home with one parking space is a joke....
A house nearby has four new cars filling it's gravel-filled front garden.
Real wage increases are also a bit of an unreliable stat. Minimum wages have increased, which means millions of employed people's wages have increased but they are still poor and unable to afford an average house. Additionally, the number of strikes in the NHS etc have pushed their wages up and MPs also just voted to increase their wages (presumably because they think they are doing a good job?).
Added to this, unemployment figures are under reported. There is an increasing number of people in the gig economy and/or are self employed and thus, their reported self assessment doesn't get included into the stats for probably a year!
A broken clock is right twice a day.
That's a new one!
@@visiblekoment Maybe going for an apposite comment rather than an original one, eh?!
@@visiblekoment fear sells
I’ve been looking to buy for over 3 years and I have just had an offer accepted on a small 2 bed semi in Bedfordshire. The owners bought the property for £237,995 in 2019 and they said that when they had the house valued they had 3 estate agents told them £260k - £270k but the estate agent they went with said it would be more like £245k - £255k and showed them evidence as to why. They listed at £250k and I offered £240k and we met in the middle at £245k. The house had only been on the market for 2 weeks when I first viewed it but they still accepted my offer and cancelled future viewings. I think they found a very good Estate Agent.
I’m not too worried about negative equity because the area is going to have a lot more infrastructure built (a pub, a GP, a railway station with a direct train to London, although we’ll see what they actually deliver on) and I wouldn’t mind living there a little longer if it was a problem.
People just will not listen....I have two friends trying to sell enormous houses....overpriced and on the market for a year! When I tell them to watch your work or explain anything to them, they just say ' I am not giving it away' drives me insane.
They won't sell then, simple! 🤷
Two years ago my friend of mine decided to sell my 5 bed detached house in Sussex and move Up North, where he could reduce his mortgage and still have a lovely house. Nobody was buying though, so he reduced his asking price by £100k a year ago, and guess what... still nobody is buying! Affordability - or lack of it - means people just can't afford big luxury houses.
House prices aren't really the driving factor for most people, it the monthly cost that is important and the cost of living crisis has obliterated that!
I get updated from Rightmove in the Brighton area every day and there are at least as many reduced houses as new houses that come onto the market. Estate agents are putting property on at high prices and then, when they haven't sold after a few months, they reduce. Then, after they still haven't sold, they either reduce again, or they sit there for an eternity.
There are an increasing number of properties in the market and the variation in prices is astonishing now. There are horrible houses on the market for a way higher asking price than really nice houses that have been reduced. I saw a house on the market in Shoreham for £1.2 million and there was an identical property 2 doors down on the market for £650k! If you ask me, even the £650k property is substantially overpriced! I've never known a market like this - nobody has!
We are surely in for a nasty crash. In fact, I'm 50 years old and I've never heard so much speculation about a potential house price correction. In fact, there are very few people giving any rational arguments for why the prices will go up, while all the data and metrics that determine affordability strongly indicate that we're heading for a crash. There ain't no smoke without fire!
You must check these property portals ’property marked SSTC’, on the Land Registry 8-12 months later ..estate agents lie about marking SSTC just to look good . But but really taking it off because of other reasons than being actually sold.
Mortgage arrears in 2009 was 216240 households above 2.5%
In March 2024 it's increased from 1.12 to 1.23% and number of households are around 120,000
Over 2.4 million households 8.6% missed at least one payment in March 2024.
Many properties bought at X in 2019 2020 are in the market at X+10% for months and not selling London SE, Zone 3,4 and 5.
Example bought 390k and asking 450k..bought 425k and ask 475k..
This is what happens when you financialise a physical good and turn it into an investment asset
Combined with the disastrous response to the 2008 banking crisis and the resulting low interest rates (held down too low for far too long) and we are know on the edge of the cliff
There was a comment here about an agent saying they had multiple offers but it was still listed a week later. I experienced this a month or so ago. The property had just been listed, i went to view it. The agent said they'd already had offers and I would have to get an offer in by 6pm Monday. 2 weeks later it was still listed. I contacted the agent to see if my wife could go take a look, but it was already sold, they just hadn't taken the listing down for whatever reason.
probably to get people to register when they inquire
@ashleybeech5093 yeah, that's what I thought. I was just saying that it seems like the market, at least in London, has been picking up. If an agent told me they'd had lots of offers etc, I would actually believe them at the moment.
The only thing that is slowing down the falls are the labour costs & materials cost to build otherwise they are down…..
The vast majority of properties are already built. Many have been built for decades.
What is the deal with the 'modern method auction'? It seems like an excuse to add 4-5% commission to a sale. I can't see any benefit to buyers. I am a first time buyer in waiting and a lot of the cheaper properties in my area are being sold this way. It adds another 6k to 9k to the cost of the property. Will a mortgage cover this as well? Is there a way to circumvent these auctions?
What are purple bricks like as a cheaper way to buy home are they faster to?
Do not use Purplebricks - they are scam artists. Fake viewings. Don't sell house.
How will changes in the buy to let market affect property prices? As the possibility of a Labour government looms more landlords may sell up.
You are assuming the Labour are stupider than the Conservatives. You might be right but landlords did okay under Blair and Brown. Labour don't want tenants sleeping in shop doorways.
35% nominal falls from summer 2022 peak sold prices or 35% nominal falls from current asking prices, which tend to be 15-20% higher than the summer 2022 peak selling prices? I'm seeing asking prices being reduced by 5-10% in my area, but from initial asking prices that are far higher than the same properties would likely have fetched 18 months ago.
Great stuff Charlie 👍
There are lots of abandoned properties around me. Is there any advice you can give Charlie, to perhaps turn that into an opportunity? A friend of mine bought a property a few months back advertised at £235k, he got it for £150k because all these things you talk about were true, but most importantly very blatant. They had an open viewing and nobody showed up. It was on the market for ages
Just make offers on unviewed properties. The opportunities are out there!
Not where I live in maidenhead 😢
Thank you Charlie@@MovingHomewithCharlie
I think the weather has done a lot to dampen demand. Feels like it's been raining for six months. We'll see what happens when the sun comes out to play.
Cue the climate doomsters who'll engineer a hose pipe ban as soon as the sun shines.
I find in my area 4+ bed houses are not selling and show greatest % discount. semi's are still selling though along with anything under 150k. I relate this to the affordability at present. I'm still holding out for 4 bed detached under 230K.
The economy would have to take a nose dive before prices collapse- you only have to look at the rented sector to understand demand
The economy is on its last legs and is almost certainly going to nose dive soon. Even if it doesn't somehow, AI is already starting to displace jobs in ever increasing numbers. This will go on forever, so it's just a matter of time before you, I and everyone else will find ourselves without a job. The IMF predicts a post labour global economy between 5 and 10 years from now. How on earth will the economy weather that storm?
@@jakemorgan9275we pray 🙏🏻 to god
Im seeing uplift here and area I'm in homes sell well; however the next step up theres not a lot there.
Whats putting me off the most with selling and moving and improving life for my family right now is the thought of dealing with the dishonest lying agents, we may have found a good one to sell our home; however we may end up buying through or getting involved with yet another con artist etc, it puts us off big time now
Wage growth up, increase in mortgage applications, and property prices rising over the last couple of months. The ONS state that average house prices fell by 0.6% last year, big deal.
These were some of the stats from this video.
Someone else who doesn’t understand averages in the context of house prices 🤷🏻♂️
Charlie just chill. No point arguing about 2026 prices. Stick this in your five fact Friday. Nostradamus has never defended his predictions on CZcams ever. Fact. Never. You are right daily, in that your followers hold out for the right price. Ok Nostradumus is complete cobblers but before you, I've never heard Rightmove held to account and challenged. You haven't got the budget to shift mainstream opinion, or to convert ignorance into wisdom. Just keep working with those that get it.
Have you seen the state of markets in other 'advanced' economies? It's a global catastrophe in terms of overblown bubbles. Commercial real estate is looking particularly dangerous in terms of local bank exposures to unserviceable debt. I could make a fortune betting on the increase in tent cities & car camping across the neoliberal world.
I think you're wrong that house prices can't continue to rise because each of us is getting poorer. Although I agree we are all getting poorer - the reason I disagree is because you seem to not understand the effects of QE/ZIRP and the amount of money looking for a safe haven. You still seem to think the only people buying homes are a couple on average wage. Prices can literally go to the moon and you will still have people "aspiring" to have a mortgage, it's not just status (although huge), it's the peace of mind of having stable shelter. Doesn't matter how thick a person is, they understand the value of that. THey will of course be thwarted by the "rich" gobbling them up. This is what we mean by you "will own nothing and be happy", we're not interested in your DVD's/CD's .. houses simply will not be sold when the asset class have gobbled them up. They will be an income stream for generations of their descendants.
Stop thinking. You're confusing yourself.
@@TheSanddancer explain
@@garethwilliams4467 The rich will buy all the houses and never sell them. There you go. All in 11 words.
@@TheSanddancer That's exactly what I said - so where is the confusion? Muppet. It think it's a good thing because I'm rich - why shouldn't I buy all the houses I want.
Do mortgage arrears count anymore ? The chancellor said they won't startt proceedings for 12 months. Plus this isn't the 90's banks could be punished for reposessions because of ESG and corporate responsibility legisaltion. Even if not via legislation they simply don't want the bad press. I predict that no one who "works" with their bank to pay their mortgage will be evicted.
Sadly the majority of EAs don't use the in-depth analysis you do, they're just focussed on their own commission and keeping prices high. Only when they go bust does the penny drop, far too late (for them, sellers and buyers).
Hey Charlie, it doesn’t help that most Agents and sellers are in denial about over valuing property. We have been looking for property for almost 6 months and have not had any offers accepted. Sellers seem to be chasing down the market rather than accepting a reasonable proceedable offer. I think that we are the minority of common sense as sellers refuse to negotiate sensibly. For example, a seller has a property overvalued by agent in July 23 reduces value by under 5% but seller and agent think that the reduction is correct. Market information in the locality suggests 10% reduction in sold prices with no remedial work. The agents don’t want to lose face with the vendor and the vendor is stuck on a previous value and is unwilling to consider a further reduction. We will keep looking as I think negotiation would be difficult even if the offer were to be accepted.
If it’s a home you’d like, always make your offer. You never know!
@@MovingHomewithCharlie hey Charlie I did make an offer and it was accepted. Thx 😁👌
Thank you 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
you most definitely can sell a house quickly using web3 and blockchain technologies. I agree we can't do it yet, but we will.
Charlie, whilst the number/majority of people moving from low fixed rates to current high rates is just about peaking [end of H2 2024] this wont be the 'downward pressure' of distressed sellers, as the govt/BS/Banks mortgage guarantee 12 month anniversary will be July. I can then see a similar repeat effect to the 'fixed higher rate' scenario as the BS/Banks start to foreclose on those customers in arrears, especially if the economy is not 'looking Rosy' and there is a 'rush for the exit' by the BS/Banks getting out before their competitors so that they can get the best price for those properties on their books.
Point 1 : RM graphs mean that mainly lower value properties sold....
Prices need to drop to pre 2020 values at least. Our children all have high end jobs, deposits and need to live in London area. No chance of buying a 2 bed property. No chance of housing a Familly long term, and the market is so financially distorted and now made even worse by recent interest rate hikes.
Lots of money still buying BTLs. Went to view a flip today and there were 3 offers over from BTL investors. We've offered over guide, but we're flipping and will be able to make a return on it. Lots of money still swashing around.
War coming
The video title is music to my renting ears. Can we knock a zero off housing prices please? The UK could do with some prosperity for a change...
They need to build more houses in areas where you have empty buildings, empty shops and offices. Why they sitting empty when we got thousands of people crossing the border?
House price analysis in terms of nominal values without factoring in inflation is completely pointless - particularly over periods of high inflation. Since the 2007 peak, average UK house prices have fallen by 12% in real terms. This peak was about the same as that reached in 2022 for the UK so again, house prices have fallen in real terms by 12% in just 2 years.
Crashes follow bubbles - there is simply no evidence to suggest we are in a bubble. There has already been a significant real-term fall in house prices and they continue to fall as inflation outstrips the meager house price increases being suggested. The 'crash' has and is happening, confusion of real and nominal values is the source of confusion here but I would not be holding out for some significant market correction unless there were dramatic negative changes in the macroeconomic situation.
i think its too late because the social damage has been done.
Off the top of my head, eight points to prove house prices are not collapsing
1) Unemployment getting worse and forecast to be 4.9 % by end of year...however still lowest rate in decades...and 1 in 5 of adults not actually seeking employment
2) BofE may be slow in cutting rates....but mortgage rates are based on forward forecasts and SWAP rates and as all/everyone see downward path these will be 3-4 % over next year.
3) All different & multiple data sources (sure some questionable judgments in all because its difficult to estimate) corroborate and show small falls in house prices with no data to support large decreases.
4) Wages currently increasing at higher rate than inflation.
5) House prices less than value 10 years ago in real terms.
6) Increasing immigration forecast to add to increasing population.
7) Target of 300,000 new build houses not being achieved....and this figure newly determined to need increase of 400,0000 houses to be built.
8) Reductio in BTL properties means less dwellings as BTL's often shared and much less so than purchases.
I hope it’s Yorkshire T your sipping pal
It is!
Prices haven't moved much in the last year or two - with inflation running high, on a real basis they have already been discounted.
The fundamentals are that the population is still rising faster than housing stock, and with interest rates set to drop over the next few years your forecast of a 35% nominal drop seems absolutely ridiculous.
i agree, i think a 3.5% fall is unlikely now with interest rates falling and wages now clearly outpacing inflation. for there to be a 45% fall we would need active war on our shores or a pandemic version of an ebola like virus
Ah the old, misplaced “supply and demand” generalisation
Absolutely mate, I think Charlie just provokes to have some views, thumbs up and subscribers.
Are you saying because of inflation, house prices should not fall ??? Why don't you try selling your house at your imagery price and see what is the uptake ?
Obviously! Are house prices higher today than they were in 1970? In the Weimar Republic hyperinflation in the 1920s do you think house prices went up or down? @@khtan585
Just heard of 100 jobs losses to be replaced with AI in office/scheduling department at utilities company.
House prices only ever go up ahahhaha
Inflation?
I think whether you believe in capitalism should rest on the shoulders of Argentina's success, under a narcocapitalist system, in bringing down inflation.
One reason house prices are holding up is Boris Johnson invited all of Hong Kong in the uk.
house prices may not rise or "collapse", they may well be held up by value of the currency falling and inflation and just stagnate.
They’ve already reduced a long way if you take inflation into account.
yes that's true, meant nominal prices would hold up and this would have a lot to do with inflation@@MovingHomewithCharlie
Charlie @31.31 you look at number of jobs in isolation, its downward movement, and use this to justify the/a reduction in salaries. This would be the case if the number of people available for work remained steady or increased during this period BUT this is not currently the case, and in the UK we have a 'surplus' of jobs to number of employees available for work, hence the above inflation [real] salary increases we currently see and their impact [especially Service industries] on the economy...companies do not give salary increases 'out of the goodness of their hearts', and certainly not above inflation increases unless they have too, to attract applicants.
Total basket case, the job market is an absolute wreck. I work in IT this is the absolute worst I’ve known in 30 years, friends are being made redundant every in finance, government, health. This is like nothing I have ever seen in my life time. I’m 50. Please
Stop making crap up.
@@shazoidsOK you have cited anecdotal experience in your market sector, please explain [without your aggressive "Stop making crap up" approach] why wage rises are above inflation?...basic economics dictates 'supply and demand' where labour is concerned, if there is sufficient demand i.e. a surplus of labour due to unemployment increasing then wage rises either shouldn't be happening OR should be below the level of inflation...as Charlie always says "Provide the facts, not the [anecdotal] guff!"
The no.1 thing that pisses me of is people who say it’s simply supply and demand. It rarely is. Anyhow that’s side I can absolutely assure you there no excess jobs, my sector cuts across every industry. I’ve worked Retail, hospitality, medical, pharma, real estate all totally fecked. Even with the government massaging and fudging stats the figure are still grim. I speak to recruiters daily, friends in valuations they all say the same thing it’s a car crash out there.
From the clickbait title to the inconsistent presentation of data to the closed mind to challenges this video marks a new high in total guff. 3 examples from many:
1) The average sale price vs average list price. When price indices show lower price falls than Charlies gut feel he points out that it is due to the mix of business. He goes on to give us a spreadsheet demonstrating how this can be the case. Well guess what? Exactly the same applies here. The reason for the gap is the fact - as regularly explained by Chris Watkins - that amongst the listed properties there are proportionally more sales of lower priced properties which distorts this graph. As this does not fit Charlies narrative he fails to mention it.
2) REAL house prices are highly correlated with REAL wage growth. This also means that NOMINAL house prices are highly correlated with NOMINAL wage growth. A challenge was made by more than 1 person that Charlie was using low REAL wage growth to justify his expectation of high NOMINAL falls in house prices and so was comparing apples with pears and Charlie failed to address this. NOMINAL wage growth in the time period has been significant and as this is the largest correlation with NOMINAL house prices this brings into question whether a 35% fall in NOMINAL house prices is very likely. For large NOMINAL house price falls to happen the correlation with NOMINAL wage growth would have to be severely reduced. Charlie has never been able to explain why this correlation would have reduced in the last year or so.
3) Funniest moment. "There ARE enough houses - they are not in the right places. Jesus Christ!" I guess the solution, then, is simply move all the people from their places of work to where the spare houses are? But hold on, is there a slight flaw to that suggestion? Maybe, just maybe, could it be that the fact that there are not enough houses in the right places is the reason there is a large brake to house price falls? This would be consistent with the data showing price falls have, in fact, been pretty small.
Charlie, you wonder why people get vexed by your expectation. The reason is you bash on about it all the time. IMO It detracts from the useful information you give on this channel. But I guess it good for the algorithm so no doubt you will continue...
He's the new "Honest Money" - that guy has bailed on house prices videos after reking his family by selling up and "waiting for a massive crash" - now the moron has wasted 3 years of cash on rent and still hasn't bought. These guys are hopium dealers for clicks tbh. I live in the north (very suburban) of a capital city, just looked on where I live on RightMove with a pretty wide radius, and there's THREE houses for sale. And that's it. There's simply not enough stock for the kind of house prices crashes these people are desperate to see.
I agree - I am not convinced Charlie gets the impact inflation is having on his nominal price fall expectation.
Wow. Well said. I’ve been following Charlie for a while now and for some reason, I have never seen him answer such detailed responses. This is the reason that I unsubscribed but still read the replies. Come on Charlie. Can you answer this persons comprehensive reply please?
@@CalB65 I would not hold your breath waiting for Charlie to reply. He does respond to intelligent challenges like the one above. They don't even get one of his hearted comments!
At the beginning of the year Charlie said he was going to focus on helping people and dial back on the prediction videos. Clearly he has decided clickbait guff is more remunerative and the way to go. Shame really as when he focusses on non price issues in the housing market he can really add value but, as with Honest Money, he is going to end up losing credibility when the huge nominal falls he is expecting do not materialise.
@Leapops I agree. I must admit I was taken in by this channel (& Charlie ) 2 + years ago and I haven’t seen the prediction of a 35% reduction. I live in the NW of the UK. House prices are strong. I think Charlie is just going for clickbiat to increase his £ return from YT. I’ve lost faith with CL. I wonder if I’m the only one? !!!
If it’s under offer then you’ve missed out too
remind me the difference between a prediction and an expectation is ? It sounds like pure sophistry (estate agent guff) to me
dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/expectation
Then look up prediction. There's a reason there are two different words for it.
I did.
Expectation: the feeling or belief that something will or should happen:
Prediction: a statement about what you think will happen in the future:
Looks pretty similar to me. Also you do a hell of a lot of stating what you think will happen in the future so perhaps prediction is the better word for what you are doing when you say you expect house prices to fall 35%
@@MovingHomewithCharlie
@@MovingHomewithCharlie Oh thanks for the cut and paste - I always wondered how that worked. But convince me you aren't just trying to climb down ? You "meant" a 35% "fall" Correct ? If not please remind me. Assure me anything else is not just a distinction without a difference.
more supply o nit's own won't decrease prices ? modern houses are crap compared to houses built 30 years ago .. small/ no drive/no garage etc. If anything as you build more modern crap, the price of some older homes will increase!
Prices pretty much flat for a year and a bit. Id say theyll stay flat for another year. I dont see much decent stock coming on yet and we are in Spring!!!!
Where are prices pretty much flat?!
@@MovingHomewithCharlie Take a stroll through the comment section of this video. Unless you think people are lying or mistaken, lots of areas appear to have flat, or even rising, property prices at the current time.
I don't see house prices falling, becasue you're not including the corporate/instituational buyers and they don't care about price. WE've spent twenty years giving institutions free money either through ZIRP or QE and they are holding too much cash. They need to buy something and are looking to diversify out of stocks. Look at Buffett he has just liquidised. A huge chunk of all that money will end up in housing.
The fact you think that professional investors “don’t care about price” pretty much undermines your entire argument, and credibility. If they didn’t care about price they would make no money and be out of a job.
Didn't BlackRock lose a huge amount of money on residential property?
@@MovingHomewithCharlie They are playing the long game and are cashed up. They see that their cash is losing money everyday and a re happy to swap it for bricks and mortar. I work in the city - I see it everyday. They're not really bothered about a £5-10K on a house when they are looking to buy 10 of them. They'll buy now and and the assets in their portfolio being marked to market. Thus they are paper richer, and can use that as collalterla for more assets. Thus, they're now in a re-enforcing positive loop. - and of course they're getting the rental income. Anymore questions Charlie, before you spout on another video?
I'm a tenant.(Bournemouth, Dorset)Landlord put the flat for sale over 6 months ago for £380k, no viewings, than drop to £350k., 1 viewing, than £325k a couple more viewings but no sales, than recently dropped price to £300k and after 4 viewings sold the flat to the cash buyer for £285k.
Where is this?
@@milesarcher. Bournemouth, Dorset
Yeah what area be more specific if your telling the truth
Many parts of Bournemouth have become horrible places to live unfortunately. It's been over valued for a long time too.
Technically house are stagnant they gone up in last 3years….if anything they are down…..
I read somewhere that more foreign buyers are coming in to take advantage of lower prices?
Why would an overseas investor buy an overpriced liability when they can get an average annual return of 14% on the S&P 500%? They can even get a 5% return from a bank. What you read somewhere is rubbish, try reading something else.
@@TheSanddancer It is not rubbish. It's called diversification. Why do you think London has all those mansions lying empty? They are because of earlier versions of the foreign buyers Angela speaks of.
@@Leapops earlier versions, when interst rates were zero. Totally different world now. Also, there's a UK outside of London. So yes, it's rubbish.
GDP has been shrinking a lot longer than that, we just use immigration to prop up the numbers. But immigrants after a while become a drag on GDP because they generally do crap jobs. You can't have real wage growth and 750K net immigration.
Yeah Wandsworth is bad right now. Sell
You are better when talking macroeconomics with Stig, he knows his onions.
i'm aware, but thanks
House prices will rise, but slower than wages.
Too many people, not enough homes. Supply less than demand.
Correct.
Disagree lots of empty houses and no buyers
@@Nick-s536 OK then. That's me convinced.
@@Nick-s536baseless comment ,any data to back this up
@Nick-s536 Any stats from anywhere?
The numbers on housing supply vs demand have been known for years.
Loads of renters who would buy... landlords, downsizers, Ltd companies.
Where are the empty properties? If they're not mortgaged, it doesn't matter. Leave them empty. It's wasteful, but not illegal.
Inflation will erode the real value of stagnant property prices this decade, nothing more. Just my tuppence.
Sellers aren't distressed enough, and won't be.
No crash coming, folks. Not here in the East Mids anyway.
DUDE, channel crossings through the roof, (all of them will be straining housing market in no time), countless other residents who are already here only wait for interest rates to (not even fall) only dip to pounce on the market as well and You talk about collapsing(?). 2024 is a dip to take advantage of, after this it will be SPACE X launch for properties EVERYWHERE including Horden.
Nice to dream ❤
@@khtan585who is dreaming? The person who says prices will rise again or those who think there will be some huge drop in prices?
@@davewright9312 SPACE X launch I supposed....
"nice to dream" (?) unless 10 million Brits die overnight from new Covid there will be LIGTNING SPEED RISE OF HOUSE PRICES as soon as interest rates only BEGIN to drop which should be in less than a year.
Bring on the crash 😂😂😂 🤑
You've been saying that for two years mate 🤣
@@RabJ208 ye and houses are down 20% where I live already 🤣 roll on another 20 keep prying d e b t man 🤑
@@jamiejones642, no according to Halifax. House prices are up five consecutive months. Lol
@@RabJ208 I have screen shots of houses since 2019 I can show you in my area down 20% 🤣🤣 Halifax are full of 💩
@@RabJ208 put your e mail I'll send them too you😎
Nothing is collapsing while net immigration is running at 750K+ per year. Demand is exceeding supply by a large margin.
this
Crickey, Charlie, every video this guy makes is doom and gloom. Ok, house prices are falling, but we still need to live in a house. Meanwhile despite the sky falling in, stock markets are at all time highs.
Stock markets don't help people get homes. And yes, we all still need to live in a house which is why I always say, BUY NOW, just don't OVERPAY!
Thanks Charlie, I have recently had my offer accepted (North London) and without your advice I would have been lost, it’s all so confusing and stressful!
I offered what I was comfortable with (first and final) and I know I am progressing with a great house.
Been living with parents for over 12 months, could have waited but I found the right property for me.
It is true to say I would have made significant mistakes and lost money, been more stressed without your advice.
If prices are going to fall 35% how do you avoid overpaying?@@MovingHomewithCharlie
in 1999 the stock market reached an all time high of 6930 and today its 7737. thats a total of 12% increase over that period. You could have outperformed this by putting your money in the building society and had zero risk. In fact you could have outperformed this over the last two years in a normal savings account!
Why would you restrict your investments to the UK which is around 6% of the global stock market? More sensible to have invested in a world index or S&P500 and made over 300% increase. The building society did not beat that return!@@MrDirkles
I think you're a socialist Charlie. All this 4 million people in destitution ... why wouldn't they be ? What have they ever done to not be in destitution. That's not a sign of a failing economy, he other 56 million could be doing very well.
socialism definitely doesn't work and I've said that many times - why do people think that being a capitalist means you're not allowed to acknowledge and care about the people who've been left behind?
Nothing wrong with acknowledging that. But you used it in response to someone saying things were not that bad meaning your timing of a slide in prices was off. Rightly or wrongly these people are not going to be homeowners in the next ten years so should not be being used in your argument to justify your expectation of 35% fall in house prices over the next year so. I thought the timing point made by the questioner was spot on. I suspect there will be a major slide downwards at some future point but very unlikely in the next year or so. @@MovingHomewithCharlie
What have they done to not be in destitution? a lot of them work.
@@MovingHomewithCharlie I think we can all acknowledge it. But is it something we want to spend time/money fixing ? Is it just ? If you believe that a country with unequal outcomes is the result of it's many freedoms, then what waht is the problem ? You were free to work hard ? Make the most of the education your received ? start a business ? If the opportunities are equal why bother about the unequal outcomes.
The majority of people, including the middle class, are always worrying in some form or other. They won't have enough in retirement, their children are losing their jobs or not able to find housing, cost of childcare, cost of elderly care, crime, health, unexpected bills. That's when the economy is plodding along on an even keel. There's no safety net for the majority. We weren't put on earth to live this way, with so much wealth in the pockets of greedy psychopaths.
This is getting very transparent and very Boring ..... round me all the for sale signs have come down and been replaced with Sold signs I have a friend who has been chasing there first home for 4 months now and having listened 2 you they lost every house they wanted ... thanks Brow...
In fact every house they went to see sold the same week and now they have missed the bottom of the market and most houses they look at are now 40K more than when they started...
They have had an offer accepted now after they had to bid 10K over asking
I don't know what your talking about but it's obvious houses are on the up and have been for months
Buy on the rumor sell on the fact by that logic houses will be much higher by the time interest rates get cut
You made life a lote more difficult for my friend so thanks a million
4 months isn't that long. And 10k over asking is an awful lot (unless the property was mis-priced). What area is it please? (also, Charlie has had many comments in the opposite direction where people have asked below asking and got a yes)
@@marcus.H North West Manchester zone ... the supply of reasonably priced property here is almost 0... so things have rapidly returned to offers over 0000.00 this is a very financial stretched family , and did listen to all the talk of price drops last year but after a few months of losing nice properties with low offers and then asking price offers took the bull by the horns and were not the only family biding and were not the highest by a very large amount
Wise words.
@@billturner6564 wow 😳 that's tragic. I knew we would be insulated from it up North. I'd say if it's Manchester they're doing well to find anything - even 10k above asking. I've been plowing everything in I have up North in the last 2 years. The market is going to be extremely strong for the next few years. Our rents are higher - wages are higher. And interest rates are forcing landlords up and down England to buy up here. Cheap homes will be like gold dust from now on. Rare. Very rare
Have they considered looking for a fixer-upper? Although I'd warn them to get it all tested for asbestos before they smash it up
@@marcus.H I think this is a fixer uper they have bought now
It's in Macclesfield as MAN was just impossible....
They both work all hours and could only do viewings on Sunday
And property was listed on Monday 1 viewing Thursday that they couldn't get to and it was sold by Sunday .... when I was talking 2 him he said this patern was happened over and over ...
The only part of the market that's sticking is the over 800.000 and basically that's any 4 bed detached around here the market is slow over the last 6 months in that sector but it seams to be picking up there as well at the moment
Is Charlie still talking smack 🙄🙄🙄
See that Diane Abbott
This guy is way off. Market clearly been turning up for nearly 6 months. Anticipating rate cuts. Once the cuts starts it will be like petrol on the fire.
“Clearly”? 🤪 Do you actually believe that?
Really are you selling .
yawn
I gave up on this content, as soon as the presenter started off with an apology for slurping tea. I realised something was amiss! Surely it doesn't make sense to wait until you start your blog to choke on your tea. DRINK SOME OF IT BEFORE YOU START. MAKE SURE YOU ARE NOT GOING TO SLURP/CHOKE then begin.
I tried! But I ran out of time… 🤷🏻♂️ ☕️
He does it a lot...
You’re happy aren’t you
Charlie, I know you are passionate, but you need to calm down. You always sound angry and like you are telling people off
I hear you, but I only have one mode: truthful expression of my sentiments. To artificially moderate it would be to stop myself expressing my views freely and truthfully.
Straw Charlie, straw.
Why, Paterleano, why?
Speak to people on the coal face and they will tell you how grim it is . I’m talking estate agents, valuers and surveyors. It’s bad bad bad we. Factor in the job market which is a car crash, Brexit which no one talks about.
I see zero evidence of your claims Charlie. Found it difficult to watch your videos after you refused to accept the elephant in the room and connect house prices and mass immigration. Good luck with your ventures.....I will continue to try find a home and end my homeless issues!
How many migrants can afford a property or afford to rent one ?
Mass immigration? Did you see that load of cash on the dingey??
There’s zero evidence of your theory too! Localised rents are definitely affected in some areas, but what proportion of immigrants are homebuyers? It’s the elephant question no one ever answers. There’s no point debating it as there’s no data for it so it’s all guesswork. Where the population growth is measurable in its effects, is on gdp per head.
@@MovingHomewithCharlie I understand you're well intentioned here, but realistically, 1 more roof taken means 1 less roof available. Think of it like seats on a ship. If new sailers keep joining onboard and taking up seats (even if they take the cheap ones) it will force people to buy up the overpriced seats (because those who previously would have had a cheap one simply can't find one any more).
Demand increasing will push up rents. This will make landlords more eager to buy up properties to rent out. We buy cheap properties, tanking them away from locals and giving them to whoever is the best candidate. Sometimes the best candidate is not local.
It's just a fact 🙂 there's no hate involved. Just truth
Most people don't want to be misunderstood. Realistically it could jeapordise his future career prospects if he get's a reputation for speaking about these facts. I understand your frustrations, but a man can't risk his family's financial future over this sort of thing
Hounslow annual rise = 0.5% 🫣 I have been poking my nose into this area on the RM just to see what's happening in surrounding areas. There has been a free fall of flat prices. Don't sell even after reductions.
Cladding
@@stevo728822 Unlikely. There has been a great deal of new blocks of flats built in the area over the recent years. I've seen quite a few (significant) reductions short after putting properties up for sale. Looks to me more like signs of despair.