Estimating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on breast cancer deaths - ICA2023

'Estimating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on breast cancer deaths: an application on breast cancer life insurance' was held at the 2023 International Congress of Actuaries on Monday, 29 May 2023, as part of Concurrent Block 2: The impact of Medical Developments and Experience on Life Insurance.
Presented by: Dr Ayse Arik
Abstract:
In this study, we investigate the impact of diagnostic delays on breast cancer mortality caused by public health measures introduced as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Cancer pathways are seriously affected by the changes in health practices due to a halt in cancer screening, significant increases in number of patients waiting more than 6 weeks, and significant reductions in number of patients starting cancer treatment. We construct a Markov model for women aged 65-89 years, based on relevant literature information and publicly available English population data, collected by the Office for National Statistics. We quantify age-specific, short-term excess deaths along with years of life lost and change in cancer survival by cancer stage based on pre- and post-pandemic scenarios. We apply our findings to net premium rates for breast cancer life insurance and investigate the effect of ongoing pandemic on the pricing of this product.
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