Legendary presentation. Tony has consistency been RIGHT (and often, ALONE) while others ridiculed him. Please keep banging the drum, people DO NOT understand how fast, violent and seismic these disruptions will be.
I liked the “a caterpillar with wings isn’t a butterfly” analogy. Definitely pointed towards legacy automakers not being able to transition to Evs as easily as they think they may.
Agree I was going to take notes on this updated info but that’s the only thing I came out with 😂. Caterpillars can’t be butterflies just by strapping wings onto it.
And non-dispatchable, variable, unpredictable renewable energy is not like anything that people are willing to rely on, and pay more for. It's like switching from the horse to the buffalo.
@@RandyTWester People already are paying for it. The combined system of solar, wind, and batteries eliminate variation and unpredictability. Fossil fuels depend on a global market place for fuels. When you can fully self generate using your own equipment you insulate yourself from global fuel markets.
I have been following Tony for almost 8 years already. He is a visionary person and predicting the future with innovation in existing technologies, not with sci-fi types. We need leaders like him in every part of society, not only in technology.
Thank you Tony Seba. When I first saw your video 2017 I started to invest into Tesla, green electrical power and cooper mines for electrification. I have done well because you shared your knowledge. Thank you again.
Not really, it's true when you think about it. Roads, parking lots, drive ways, and real estate is all highly influenced by personal car ownership. That will change with autonomous electric cars.
Love the caterpillar-to-butterfly analogy. This is an accurate example, of a good portion, of the mindset of legacy automotive companies around the world. Petroleum has been their 'crack' cocaine for so long, the detoxification process may very well kill most of them. I think this is why many have a high aversion to recognizing the clear benefits of a BEV (battery electric vehicle) over an ICE (internal combustion engine) counterpart. Clearly, Tony is demonstrating that knowledge IS power and that you should be armed with it to navigate the tumultuous periods ahead.
The cost S-curve is being led by Tesla, who is well ahead of Tony's prediction and essentially pushing all other BEVs along the curve. And while this is happening, Tesla and other BEV manufacturers, are collapsing demand for legacy ICE and their suppliers. I'd imagine that Tony will talk about this in part #2 which I'm very much looking forward to.
Its good to see that you are around. Currently mainly Europe is in big trouble because of missing energy. Well oil and gas are also used as components for plastic, pharmacy, fertilizers etc. Further, and especially the Germans seem really stupid in switching off existing and operational nuclear power plants.
You are totally right, the majority of mainstream news and organisations seem to have no concepts of compound & exponential growth. It's such a sinple concept, yet so many are struggling with it.
The usual brilliant presentation from Tony Seba. If it appears to be one repeated message but with extra details each time it's because the message is so true. Can't wait for Part 2. 👍
He also recognized that history repeats itself. Fords Project Highland in 1913 was a mindblowing factory with a brand new production platform, that made the price of a car go from 800$ to 240$.Next year 200 other carmakers went bankrupt. No Wonder, Elon have used the same codename in his future plans. Of course not, for a particular refreshed 6 year old model3, as claimed by Reuters, but for the new mindblowing generation 3 platform. 😎
Thanks Tony for this presentation, wish I had read your book in 2014. Fantastic predictions re. the lithium battery price fall over time, and the S curve adoption rates for disruptive new technology.
Historically important and perceptive and valuable thinking and presentation, especially for the CEOs of all major corporations like IBM which is following in the steps of GE
If cost curves are like gravity, then why is RTX 4080 16 GB $1200+ while GTX 1080 8 GB was $600 in 2016? And why is Tesla Model 3 more expensive today than it was 3 years ago? I also saw PVs and batteries get more expensive this year compared to last year where I live.
You're forgetting about one of the strongest factors to influence price, but necessarily value. One must take into consideration the number of dollars in circulation when comparing a point in time to another. In this case, the number of dollars in circulation today dwarfs that of the number of dollars in 2016.
None big Automobile industry CEOs will understand (with the exception of Herbert Diess) this huge disruption change in their working day. Must be broadcasted to all our teenagers secondary schools to understand the new World they will live in.
Truly brilliant presentation Tony! My investments in innovation is heavily based on your research. Technically, I owe a part of my financial success to your research! Thank you🙏
The current Crisis Era was described in book "The Fourth Turning" by Strauss and Howe. Tony is describing the details of exactly how. Strauss and Howe wrote in early 1990s their book. Tony has highlighted S-curves, disruption, specific technology converging, and the consequences.
Thank You Tony Seba! Your work is extraordinarily important, critical and timely! I fear for the companies and the people who do not study, internalize and put into rapid your action, your body of work.
Thank you for sharing, great message - Love the term "phase changing disruptions" Tony, I would be fascinated in your explanation of the S-Curve predictability in the light of globalisation
Dont make us wait so long for the next one Tony. I'm generally a very skeptical, traditional (see incumbent) type of guy and thinker, but I can't help but pound the Seba Kool-Aid
Nothing wrong with being skeptical. It's what saves us from wasting billions of dollars on technology That's not ready yet. At the same time I think Tony is absolutely correct about the changes coming. The math is there.
@@mrspeigle1 I drank the koolaid years ago. We are working on disruptive food systems out of Africa and Seba's principles are bang on. The current dysfunctional and predatory model is fast succumbing to disruption. The convergence of disrupted long supply chains, rising cost of fossil fuels and fertilizers as well as the disenfranchisement of post colonial French policy is fast changing Agriculture our of French speaking Africa. The Europeans have a very shocking and disruptive rude awakening just a short "s' curve away.. I can't wait.
Everyone who wants to invest in growth stock's needs to listen to tony Seba before doing so. He has a great library of useful uploads which bring the receipts and show his predictions in the past actually happening as he said it would.
Amazing presentation! Quote about caterpillar and butterfly was one of the best that I heard in a long time! Thank you for sharing this wealth of knowledge!
This is exactly what the auto industry is attempting, Toyota is trying to use the same assembly line to produce an ice car, then an hybrid and then a BEV just changes some parts. They literally said the same line will produce all the vehicles on different days
Great video, message needs to get out. On the other hand, this is all be said in previous videos. So hope, next parts drops some new info and insights. Keep up the excellent work. Nay sayers might need some insight in the mechanisms of disruption.
Mature companies - especially publicly traded ones get trapped by their quarterly earnings targets. Everything is incremental. Set a modest growth goal, meet it and watch your stock options grow in value! No focus on self disruption.
The outstanding characteristics of Tony Seb's analysis is the Observable form-fitting S curves of innovation and Wright's Law overlay on the economies of scaling technical changes. The proof is in the putting of business development. So when he says a 10X improvement will inevitability replace old tech, why is that not recognized to apply to measurable Energy Thermodynamics of Power Generation potential in suppressed Nuclear Reactor Designs. (Rhetorical)
Where am I blind? This makes me think there may be a lot even in my own small life might be missing the vision to see disruption and collapse. #landscaping
And just to proof he really did make the graph of around 5:30 back in 2014, you can find it back in this vid of 2014: czcams.com/video/8xy1EDY7Ruw/video.html You can see it around 30:40 exactly the same graph.
This presentation will be lost on BMW executives - and some of their car driving fans. If in doubt why not seek out some Nokia, Kodak, or Blockbuster executives and ask why their companies have disappeared.
$151 per kilowatt-hour According to BloombergNEF, the average lithium-ion battery costs $151 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), and the average battery-powered electric vehicle (BEV) battery costs $138 per kWh. In 2021 the average per kWh cost was $141.Feb 24, 2023
The adoption of cars with supporting infrastructure happened without federal subsidies? The Inflation Induction Act and other outrageous Federal help is not necessary. . US interest payments on debt is now at %580 bil/yr approaching the expenditure on defense.
Do not forget geopolitics. China is leading in two of the three technologies: energy and transportation. And they certainly participate in the agricultural transformation.
Not at all. We forecast equilibrium cash cost by 2030 based on 70m bpd demand. We also wrote that in the short term, we could see high volatility and even spikes in oil prices.
![The Great Transformation [Part 2] - The #Disruption of #Transportation](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Vqs0_3M-18c/mqdefault.jpg)
![The Great Transformation [Part 2] - The #Disruption of #Transportation](/img/tr.png)
![The Great Transformation [Part 4] - The #Disruption of #Food & #Agriculture](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/g6gZHbfK8Vo/mqdefault.jpg)
Legendary presentation. Tony has consistency been RIGHT (and often, ALONE) while others ridiculed him. Please keep banging the drum, people DO NOT understand how fast, violent and seismic these disruptions will be.
Gonna be insane
I liked the “a caterpillar with wings isn’t a butterfly” analogy. Definitely pointed towards legacy automakers not being able to transition to Evs as easily as they think they may.
I absolutely cannot understand why only 40200 subscribers...
I've been telling people about Tony Seba for a long time. It would be good to see you feature Tony's predictions on your channel.
💯
“ I don’t care what your opinion is, cost curves are like gravity” my favourite line in this video
Gravity does not exist, in all reality. They are laws of buoyancy.
Tony's back!
YEAH BABY!!
❤ Tony!
...and the Red Tie returns 👔
Have been waiting for his new content like a kid waiting for Christmas. 🙂
Same here. Can't wait.
A butterfly is not a caterpillar with wings. That is an incredibly good quote to explain this transformation.
Agree I was going to take notes on this updated info but that’s the only thing I came out with 😂. Caterpillars can’t be butterflies just by strapping wings onto it.
Remind me of flying cars.
Stick wings to a car. Et voilà!
And non-dispatchable, variable, unpredictable renewable energy is not like anything that people are willing to rely on, and pay more for. It's like switching from the horse to the buffalo.
@@RandyTWester People already are paying for it. The combined system of solar, wind, and batteries eliminate variation and unpredictability.
Fossil fuels depend on a global market place for fuels. When you can fully self generate using your own equipment you insulate yourself from global fuel markets.
@@RandyTWester 😂😂😂funny comment.
You are good at fictional storytelling.👍
I never get tired of hearing this message. Thanks Tony for hammering it home .. again and again
❤❤❤same❤❤❤
I have been following Tony for almost 8 years already. He is a visionary person and predicting the future with innovation in existing technologies, not with sci-fi types. We need leaders like him in every part of society, not only in technology.
Thank you Tony Seba. When I first saw your video 2017 I started to invest into Tesla, green electrical power and cooper mines for electrification. I have done well because you shared your knowledge. Thank you again.
Absolutely fascinating. Like many here, I have heard this before but never get tired of it. Can't wait for part 2!
Tony gave this talk last year. That whole talk with better slides, very worthwhile. czcams.com/video/Kj96nxtHdTU/video.html
When Tony speaks I LISTEN! People who don't, do it at their peril.
"We built cities around the car."
That turned out to be a mistake.
Not really, it's true when you think about it. Roads, parking lots, drive ways, and real estate is all highly influenced by personal car ownership. That will change with autonomous electric cars.
"Motorola. Remember them?" Rofl that was savage.
Love the caterpillar-to-butterfly analogy. This is an accurate example, of a good portion, of the mindset of legacy automotive companies around the world. Petroleum has been their 'crack' cocaine for so long, the detoxification process may very well kill most of them. I think this is why many have a high aversion to recognizing the clear benefits of a BEV (battery electric vehicle) over an ICE (internal combustion engine) counterpart. Clearly, Tony is demonstrating that knowledge IS power and that you should be armed with it to navigate the tumultuous periods ahead.
Thanks Tony. People are FINALLY listening to you (well, some). 😎👍
The cost S-curve is being led by Tesla, who is well ahead of Tony's prediction and essentially pushing all other BEVs along the curve. And while this is happening, Tesla and other BEV manufacturers, are collapsing demand for legacy ICE and their suppliers. I'd imagine that Tony will talk about this in part #2 which I'm very much looking forward to.
2023 and 2024 will be amazing for Tesla but now we still have the half price tesla that will disrupt again!
Tesla and the Chinese (BYD, CATL, SAIC, jinko et al)
The only price that is collapsing is Teslas stock price!
@@najibyarzerachic The Japanese and EU too. Everyone loves Toyota.
Care to check your prediction again? See the numbers and weep.
Incredible visionary!
Great work Tony. Greetings from Ireland 🇮🇪
Its good to see that you are around. Currently mainly Europe is in big trouble because of missing energy.
Well oil and gas are also used as components for plastic, pharmacy, fertilizers etc.
Further, and especially the Germans seem really stupid in switching off existing and operational nuclear power plants.
You are totally right, the majority of mainstream news and organisations seem to have no concepts of compound & exponential growth. It's such a sinple concept, yet so many are struggling with it.
Great guy. So smart. Genius really Thanks Tony.
The usual brilliant presentation from Tony Seba. If it appears to be one repeated message but with extra details each time it's because the message is so true. Can't wait for Part 2. 👍
Visionary! Wish I’d known about him years ago
Hopefully this talk involvees the phase change in money
It must be tough being Tony when he can see what's coming so clearly, while the heads of established industries are saying he's a madman!
I believe Tony has a bachelor's in computer science from MIT and a masters in economics at Stanford. Great combo to figure this out.
He also recognized that history repeats itself. Fords Project Highland in 1913 was a mindblowing factory with a brand new production platform, that made the price of a car go from 800$ to 240$.Next year 200 other carmakers went bankrupt. No Wonder, Elon have used the same codename in his future plans. Of course not, for a particular refreshed 6 year old model3, as claimed by Reuters, but for the new mindblowing generation 3 platform. 😎
Thanks Tony for this presentation, wish I had read your book in 2014. Fantastic predictions re. the lithium battery price fall over time, and the S curve adoption rates for disruptive new technology.
Very valuable. Thank you Tony.
🤗THANKS TONY,FOR EXPLAINING THIS CONCEPT 😳😎💚💚💚
Historically important and perceptive and valuable thinking and presentation, especially for the CEOs of all major corporations like IBM which is following in the steps of GE
...not to mentiom Toyota!
Tony's foresight into the future is amazing - looking forward to watching things play out as Tony has described.
Thank you, Tony!
Reminds me that Toyota is in the Market Trauma phase… others will follow.
totally!
If cost curves are like gravity, then why is RTX 4080 16 GB $1200+ while GTX 1080 8 GB was $600 in 2016? And why is Tesla Model 3 more expensive today than it was 3 years ago? I also saw PVs and batteries get more expensive this year compared to last year where I live.
The exception proves the rule. And you're wrong about Tesla now that their price has just plummeted🙂
@@vjwebster $45,630 after delivery, for a base model is not cheap at all!
You're forgetting about one of the strongest factors to influence price, but necessarily value. One must take into consideration the number of dollars in circulation when comparing a point in time to another. In this case, the number of dollars in circulation today dwarfs that of the number of dollars in 2016.
Solid ! - Accountants are linear, reductionist mechanistic thinkers .. Now I KNOW I am not alone !
Right on the money as always Tony
I love your reports. Thanks a lot. Muchas gracias, Tony!
Love your work. Thank you for this!
Great to see the trademark red tie hasn't been disrupted....
Excellent video Tony
None big Automobile industry CEOs will understand (with the exception of Herbert Diess) this huge disruption change in their working day. Must be broadcasted to all our teenagers secondary schools to understand the new World they will live in.
Diess has a PHD in automation BTW. He has insight into the Gigafactories as the new way of auto manufacturing due to his background.
so much value per minute ...... tx Tony
Thanks Tony
Truly brilliant presentation Tony!
My investments in innovation is heavily based on your research. Technically, I owe a part of my financial success to your research!
Thank you🙏
Tesla shares around 5 years ago, right?
Me too, I owe him a heap!
The current Crisis Era was described in book "The Fourth Turning" by Strauss and Howe. Tony is describing the details of exactly how. Strauss and Howe wrote in early 1990s their book.
Tony has highlighted S-curves, disruption, specific technology converging, and the consequences.
What an insight, wow, and so well presented, Tony. Fantastic viewpoint into the future. Muchas gracias, Sir
My Christmas present came early when I got your new presentation I have been following your predictions since 2012 you have been spot on Thanks
Thank You Tony Seba! Your work is extraordinarily important, critical and timely! I fear for the companies and the people who do not study, internalize and put into rapid your action, your body of work.
Thank you for sharing, great message - Love the term "phase changing disruptions"
Tony, I would be fascinated in your explanation of the S-Curve predictability in the light of globalisation
TY Tony!!❤
Great content! thanks
Dont make us wait so long for the next one Tony. I'm generally a very skeptical, traditional (see incumbent) type of guy and thinker, but I can't help but pound the Seba Kool-Aid
Nothing wrong with being skeptical. It's what saves us from wasting billions of dollars on technology That's not ready yet. At the same time I think Tony is absolutely correct about the changes coming. The math is there.
@@mrspeigle1 I drank the koolaid years ago. We are working on disruptive food systems out of Africa and Seba's principles are bang on. The current dysfunctional and predatory model is fast succumbing to disruption. The convergence of disrupted long supply chains, rising cost of fossil fuels and fertilizers as well as the disenfranchisement of post colonial French policy is fast changing Agriculture our of French speaking Africa. The Europeans have a very shocking and disruptive rude awakening just a short "s' curve away.. I can't wait.
Hopefully this information sinks into more people's minds. Thank you Tony for the excellent presentation!😀
You mind giving me a TLDR.
👍 b4 even viewing.
Everyone who wants to invest in growth stock's needs to listen to tony Seba before doing so. He has a great library of useful uploads which bring the receipts and show his predictions in the past actually happening as he said it would.
Amazing presentation! Quote about caterpillar and butterfly was one of the best that I heard in a long time! Thank you for sharing this wealth of knowledge!
This is exactly what the auto industry is attempting, Toyota is trying to use the same assembly line to produce an ice car, then an hybrid and then a BEV just changes some parts. They literally said the same line will produce all the vehicles on different days
AWESOME TONY!
Very nice presentation Tony as usual.
Eyes opening 👍🏻
Excellent !!!🤔
This guy made me a millionaire ❤️
which investments u did?
@@ozemalhao all in Nvidia & Tesla, both mentioned in his old book clean disruption of energy and transportation
@@bambelbino may i ask wich values u were in those two?
@@ozemalhao 180k 50:50, 8 years ago
@@bambelbino if u were to do the same today would you pick same stocks?
Many Dutch are going to hit on your channel soon, to watch your 5 new episodes. 😁
Great video, message needs to get out. On the other hand, this is all be said in previous videos. So hope, next parts drops some new info and insights. Keep up the excellent work. Nay sayers might need some insight in the mechanisms of disruption.
When do we get Part 2?
yeay new content
Great job Tony, looking forward to the next one!
Just my stupid question - why coal is so expensive if it’s collapsing 🤨
This needs to either be shared or hidden to let people just hit the wall
😢😊
Missed you Tony
We need to tackle equilibrium in the educational systems
Where have you been? Need my Seba fix!
@Tony, would you come to Stanford to give a seminar again? Would love to attend one in person now that I'm a student here!
Mature companies - especially publicly traded ones get trapped by their quarterly earnings targets. Everything is incremental. Set a modest growth goal, meet it and watch your stock options grow in value! No focus on self disruption.
Tony is the viability of offshore wind on Lake Superior I live on the north shore in Minnesota and it’s really windy out on the lake
19:40 some brilliant new stuff.
The outstanding characteristics of Tony Seb's analysis is the Observable form-fitting S curves of innovation and Wright's Law overlay on the economies of scaling technical changes.
The proof is in the putting of business development.
So when he says a 10X improvement will inevitability replace old tech, why is that not recognized to apply to measurable Energy Thermodynamics of Power Generation potential in suppressed Nuclear Reactor Designs. (Rhetorical)
Where am I blind? This makes me think there may be a lot even in my own small life might be missing the vision to see disruption and collapse. #landscaping
Welcome Back 🔙
And just to proof he really did make the graph of around 5:30 back in 2014, you can find it back in this vid of 2014:
czcams.com/video/8xy1EDY7Ruw/video.html
You can see it around 30:40 exactly the same graph.
Proven. Good work.
This presentation will be lost on BMW executives - and some of their car driving fans. If in doubt why not seek out some Nokia, Kodak, or Blockbuster executives and ask why their companies have disappeared.
Is there someplace I can download or watch this presentation? Thanks.
$151 per kilowatt-hour
According to BloombergNEF, the average lithium-ion battery costs $151 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), and the average battery-powered electric vehicle (BEV) battery costs $138 per kWh. In 2021 the average per kWh cost was $141.Feb 24, 2023
Where was this presentation made?
wow
Light
The adoption of cars with supporting infrastructure happened without federal subsidies? The Inflation Induction Act and other outrageous Federal help is not necessary. . US interest payments on debt is now at %580 bil/yr approaching the expenditure on defense.
Solar is a good replacement for coal, but is the same true for Natural gas and Nuclear?
When was the video made? Is this a repost of older ones? (did not watch yet)
This video was recorded in September 2022. [EJ]
@@tonyseba Wow!! 🙏Thank you so much! For your reply and everything you do. I got tears in my eyes that the man, the legend.. Tony Seba replied to me 🥲
Grab a hot cup of tea and listen to how the future will play out.
What about Hydrogen. Will it be future disruptive technology
Part 2?
Should be required viewing on every college campus. Not sure how you can watch this and not want to irresponsibly funnel money into TSLA
We may see the demise of some economies (Russia, China) follow inverted S curves. Japan is an early example!
Ha ha not China. That's just the new American dream.
China is and has been at the forefront for 20 years eg wind, batteries and now EVs.
I understand now... We are going to eat the cars!
Do not forget geopolitics. China is leading in two of the three technologies: energy and transportation. And they certainly participate in the agricultural transformation.
I'm adding to my ark funds after listening.
Please how can I get access to my full payment
And religion, too
Make a T-shirt!
"A butterfly is not a caterpillar with wings"
When was the lecture?
In September 2022. [EJ]
What's up with the oil price spike, Tony? Isn't this counter your thesis??
Not at all. We forecast equilibrium cash cost by 2030 based on 70m bpd demand. We also wrote that in the short term, we could see high volatility and even spikes in oil prices.
@@tonyseba awesome 👍
@@tonyseba Nailed it again!