On Background: Does China pose a threat and how should Australia respond? | Insiders
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- čas přidán 6. 06. 2024
- The government this week announced plans to allow non-citizens to join the Australian Defence Force.
When you step back and consider what this is about, it's another example of Australia trying to improve its military readiness, in this case by boosting recruitment.
But is it clear what threat Australia really faces and what would happen in the event of war? How exactly would the alliance with the US come into play?
David Speers speaks to former Deputy Secretary of Defence and Home Affairs Secretary, Mike Pezzullo, and former senior intelligence analyst and author of The Echidna Strategy, Sam Roggeveen.
More Information:
Mike Pezzullo spoke to 7.30 earlier this year after he was sacked as head of Home Affairs: www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-2...
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Why is it the "JOB of Australia" to support America's primacy?
Since when Australia is a sovereign nation? it's all about the US national interest.
The US government went mad
@@the.parks.of.no.return It's a two party State with a first past the post electoral system. It's been wracked on several occasions by internal division in its history and always healed the union; it's democratic institutions are still strong: all testomony to the resiliance of American Democracy. In short, it will come good. China, by contrast will probably not come good in our lifetime.
@@Waverlyduli Autocracy VS Democracy these are the terms created by the West to brainwash its people. Democracy only good if 90% of the voters are well educated, look at Haiti, 100% copied from the US. Look at US itself, where is the freedom of speech for pro Palestinian.
@@Waverlyduli worse than today's gaza? highly unlikely.
Former PM of Malaysia , Mahathir Mohamad told WSJ in Sept , 2018 , " We have traded with China for nearly two
thousand years . China never conquered us. We have relations with Europe. The Portuguese came to Malaysia in 1509.
Two years later, they came and conquered us. So I always feel that I’m safer with China than with Western countries " .
Australia should have no problem with China as well , unless US Missiles were launched from the ports in Australia .
It is advisable for Australia to pay the US Nuclear Submarine in full and keep it in US ports permanently .
Australia should try to keep distance from the Warmongers and avoid to become another ' Germany ' , which has been
half converted into a Sausage on the Menu by his Warmongers ally .
China is a war monger. You're naive and impressionable. Learn to just watch actions and not invest so much time with your stereotypes.
Interesting and thoughtful quote, thank you.
It’s very sad to see what’s happening in Germany: a manufacturing powerhouse of fine quality, deindustrialising after the destruction of Nordstream 2.
If that’s how the US treats its allies, it’s very concerning.
Different time and what a naive PM of Malaysia as Red China invade slowly via immigration..
You both sound like ai, china should stop polluting the skys, the oceans and the internet
@@fletcherp1844 Nothing artificial about my intelligence.
I’m not pro-China. (Not anti-China, either).
I love the US, but am merely concerned about garrulous neocons, and the risks to the world, or in this case, Australia, that may result.
Australia should not follow USA and uk into wars
@@Waverlyduli Probably a troll
Do we have a choice? @@Waverlyduli
And your alternative geopolitical strategy is?
If China takes control of the region then aboriginals can forget about any rights! See what the Chinese think about black people for reference, and we won’t have to worry about finding work it will be assigned for us
CCP bot
The arguments are a bit disjointed. But it appears that China is not a threat to Australia unless when Australia is supporting the US in maintaining its primacy in the Asia.
CCP China are war mongers. Only strength keeps war mongers in check.
HAHAHAHAHA, they crushed democracy in Hong Kong, ignored the ruling on UNCLOS, buid artificial islands and weaponise them in what is not their territory, use force agains the Philippines, threaten in print and on the airwaves, the UK, France, Canada AND Australia, try to strangle Austraalia with a trade war they didn't win, have the greatest military build up in the shortest time of any nation on earth, threaten to take Taiwan by force when Taiwan has NEVER been ruled by the CCP and YOU SAY THEY ARE NOT A THREAT??? What planet do you live on?
The guests are american infkuenced war hawk .
Just like horses with blinders ,
They can't see anything else .
1 peculiarities of the war hawk's ,,
Their LOVED ones are secured from violence of war .
The CCP bot position is that an unstable autocracy can't be a threat? Would you bots like to buy this nice bridge?
@@Waverlyduli you think an unstable democracy can't be a threat? Look who is in charge, walking corpse Biden or soon to be Trump the felon.
Not really addressing the question, 'is China a threat?' Both speakers seem to assume it is, without explaining why, or why the incorporation of Taiwan into China is a strategic problem for Australia. They only differ in the degree they think the US will come to Australia's 'aid'. The questioning is all backwards: the question is unanswered. US is using Australia as a base to project power to assert its Asian dominance. Australia is a fall guy. Alternative: accept China's rise, accept that Taiwan is an internal issue, keep the peace.
Because the US say so. If Huawei had been allowed to operate in Australia, we wouldn't have experienced the Telstra or Optus network outage.
China supported East West Germany reunification even though Germany is the aggressor in WW2. Yet, the west now object and threaten war with China if it reunify with Taiwan which was colonised by Japan and officially returned to China after WW2. Shouldn't the west actively push Taiwan to reunify with China then this whole China threat largely go away? Or someone is cooking up this China threat, note China has not attacked other country is last 40-50 years.
Spot on!
CCP Charley Chan, take the night off.
@@Waverlyduli Downunder Hobo good night
Australia should become like Switzerland, totally independent and neutral, and looking after their own interests. Switzerland has a brilliant economy, the days of the British Empire are long gone, and America is falling apart.
Nope! Being "neutral" will not help Australia. That's a fool's argument.
Australia is not Switzerland… we’re as large as the continental United States, but with 1/15th the population and a vastly smaller economy. We’re also massively rich in many resources the world needs and it is far from inconceivable that our limited capacity to protect ourselves will be overlooked by larger, more populous countries forever unless we’re part of a strong alliance system
Switzerland is no longer neutral
@@freeman10000 but why tho?
@@4thought___ so it seems. Interesting turn of events.
Even China's Garlic is a security threat and whatever that's Made-in-China....Paranoia 😅
Garlic is to Dracular as Democracy and free speech is to the CCP: CCP paranoia.
China can become a Democracy like Taiwan if it craves the free world's trust.
The CCP's garlic is Taiwan's Democracy, free speech and human rights. (Paranoia? Yes).
Yes but the money our Australian businesses are raking in from mark ups from producing their products in China is never mentioned.
Some of the European car manufacturers are moving to China because of energy costs driven up as a result of the destruction of Norde stream 2 pipeline.
How can we plan to fight a country we depend on for manufacturing and profit?
Does not make sense.
There are 70,000 Americans companies in China which manufactures at low price and exports to oversea markets. A Made-in-China iphone sells at US800 whereas Made-in-US sells at US2400
China is not a threat. Only if you regard 300 billion dollars of trade as a threat.
Didn't you see the story on Australia doing a deal on our gas reserve with East Timor...to prevent them being seduced by China hovering. If we lose that link, China found launch missiles at Australia from East Timor....then there's PNG ticking away.
Chinese wolf warrior troll, that didn't work out so well for China last time.
Using trade as a threat didn't work out so well for the CCP wolf warrior class of 2020 but it inspired a trade war with two American administrations ever since.
Remember that the Chinese Communist Party has and will use this 300 billion dollars of trade to threaten us.
CCP China are war mongers. Only strength keeps war mongers in check.
😅All these experts talk about Taiwan as if Taiwan belongs to Europe 😅. China will never let go of Taiwan ,at all costs. The West can try to come to Taiwan with their forces and test the resolve of the PLA . The outcome will be painful. Never underestimate the willpower of China as far as Taiwan is concerned. Basically Taiwan is not the business of the Aussies or the West.
imagine someone in Tassie wants to be independant,and China support that.I understand USA wants to use Taiwan to slow down China,but anyone else trying to mess around it without any major intetest will lose big time.And btw,these people have no idea about the capability of current China,let alone the will power.China trys best to solve the problem by not engaging a war,no one wins in a war,war breed hate for a whole generation,but if it ever happens now with the Anglo allies,IMHO,it will be a disaster,it will be a complete new order,the peak annum steel production of US is 80m tons,the peak annum steel production of China is over 1b ton,imagine how long the war will last,think about Korean war,and think again now.Lucky the US knows the best what China is capable of right now,otherwise they would start already.Sad thing Australia will lose,just like the sino us trade war,the real loser is Ozzie farmers,US farmer got Aussies pie
Let me put this gently. You're a CCP bot so geopolitical realities scare you, and that's the way it is also for your regime. Taiwan will simply never be taken, by force, by un-mandated CCP bandits. Democracies are just never going to let that happen.
@@Waverlyduliwhy is this incorrect? Taiwan is a breakaway province but is still a part of China. It’s recognised globally under the “One China” principle and that Taiwan is not recognised as its own country. That said the Taiwanese see themselves as an independent country of China. Not dissimilar to many separatist movements eg. Basque and Catalania to Spain.
Taiwan is the Republic of China a government that existed pre CCP, it’s not a breakaway but the only piece of territory the CCP hasn’t conquered yet. And they value being separate of the CCP. And the CCP is willing to kill to incorporate. If the CCP can have resolve to kill why can’t the Republic of China or its allies.
@@Waverlyduli why incorrect?
Does Australia ever can say no to US 😂😂😂😂
"ever can say no" 🤣🤣🤣
Two points. One, Australia does not always agree or say yes to the US. Two, Australia is stronger and more secure will friends and allies.
@@freeman10000Correct.
@@camt8804 In the 1980's we did ban US nuclear warships from docking in Australia.... but that only lasted about 10 years .. and now we've been back to allowing them here again since the mid to late 1990's. NZ had (and I think still may have) their nuclear bans, not just on US but also other nations with nuclear weapons on board to dock there. That's why France blew up the Rainbow Warrior. Point is we can say NO when we want to.
@@freeman10000 you mean friends that only speak english right?
U GUYS R THE REAL THREAT PUSHING PROPAGANDA AND WAR FOR ALL OF US TO JOIN IN
Of course China is not a threat!!!They are lovely people who just want Australia to do really well
Chinese people are great. It's the Chinese COMMUNIST party that is a threat.. who would prefer to dictate terms to us.
China is fine it is the Chinese Communist that is a threat. The CCP are expansionist bullies and absolutely loathe liberal democracies such as Australia, Japan and Taiwan.
chinese always amused they spent extra money on australian products but they're branded a threat instead of good customers
Learn from the history. In the Vietnam War, when Hanoi tried to defeat Saigon to unite the whole Vietnam (something similar to Beijing trying to defeat Taiwan to unite the whole China nowadays), the US sent military forces to help Saigon fight against Hanoi, and several US allies in the Asia Pacific region joined the US to fight in Vietnam. After 10 years, the US and its allies withdrew from Vietnam, and Hanoi defeat Saigon quickly and united the whole country under communist rule. Today Vietnam under the Communist Party is seen as an important partner in Southeast Asia by the US and its allies.
The Vietnam War is clearly a big lesson for the US, as well as its allies including Australia.
Imagine Beijing trying to reunite with Taiwan, and the US repeat what it has done in Vietnam. What is the sense to Australia to join the US to fight China?
The U.S. could of won the Vietnam war within 6 months and the same in Afghanistan but both of those wars weren’t about winning. China and Taiwan are a completely different kettle of fish.
@@testicool013riiiiiight
@@jakerubino3233 they were both about politics, do some research on the U.S. military’s weaponry now and during the Vietnam war and then ask yourself how did they not win quickly and easily, there are plenty of documentary’s on the Vietnam war go and watch them.
@@testicool013 US never set foot beyond 17th parallel in Vietnam because it would trigger another Korean war and we all know how that would end. The US were essentially defeated twice in Chinese neighboring countries. You think it has a better chance on an island China sees as her own?
@@YongLi-np3wg China was given a caning by the Vietnamese. Don't comment until you know sth.
For Australia to sacrifice more young lives to fight a US war over Taiwan, what territorial stake over Taiwan does Australia have to justify this sacrifice?
CCP Charley Chan, take the night off.
@@Waverlyduliis that the most intelligent comment you can contribute to this discussion. Stop name calling, because it reflects on your intellect or lack of.
CCP isn't about about intellect. It's about control, Charley Chan (玻璃心) Democracies must always be armed and clear-eyed, never naive.
The real problem is America has become a shit stain on society funding never ending wars funding genocide weaponising the dollar the thing they promised they never do back in 45 there dollar is heading for the toilet because of there own actions. So cry your anti China rhetoric but already arse tongue ing America has cost us over a billion dollars in investments from China because America advised us not to. The only one who wins dealing with America is America ask the European governments all going into recession over the corrupt toilet in Ukraine.
Because Australia’s U.S. master says so, as a colony of the U.S. the Australia government has no autonomy whatsoever. Just do what it’s told and regurgitate the propaganda and lies by the neocon media.
'Remember that when the Empire is at war, so is Australia at war … all our resources in Australia are ... for the preservation and the security of the Empire'
We aren't British subjects. The King is just a figure head. People in the UK do realise I hope that by being a British "subject" they are in subservience to the Crown?
How did the Viet Nam war go for the US? Also, didn't the US replace Taliban with Taliban?
How did the Vietnam war go for China?
Chinese economy is a tragedy and the regime's so ludicrously repressive. The unemployment, paranoia and hunger must get to you.
The US actually acheived their objective in the Vienam war, to deny Russia a Pacific warm water port at Cahm Ran Bay.
@@camt8804 There was no vietnam war for China. Only a border conflict that went on for few months
@@zackwang9314 It wasn't a border conflict. It was an invasion to try to get Vietnamese forces out of Cambodia. It did fail after a month though.
Australia should concentrate in its own region stop let the countries in those regions decide what is best for them they can buy the weapons themselves and create resolutions to their own problems Australia will run out of money trying to compete with china in the asian region.
china wants to buy australian minerals and food in turn australia buy manufactured products from china.... everyone wins.... i just don't know what kind of threat they're talking about...
Happy taxpayers Day!! AUKUS will cost aussies au$1.5Trillion. In DEBT for a bunch of weapons to support the primacy of America?!! Aussie politicians run (by USA army) are declaring the subs will cost au$680 BILLION but we all know the true cost of inflation makes this figure a joke….and after the guaranteed cost blowout…will mean a wasted au$1.5 TRILLION for the subs. Remember there are no clear specifications, USa weapons manufacturers have a monopoly on the cost and design and reconfiguration, insifficient skilled labour across USa/Uk/AUS….and a recipe for cost disaster. …while the homeless, education, health services for AUSSIES get cut back to feed the USA military industry…and neither major party can resist the instructions of american government. happy taxpayer fools day!!!! .
Warmongers!
If China is a threat to Oz, stop selling your dust to them. But how so? Taiwan n Phil your problem? How so, u the US's deputy sheriff in Asia, who appointed u? Why cry coercion when they impose tariff or stop buying your products? Uphold your values u often say u will not compromise. After all, your value is more important than your rice bowl economy, right?🤦♂️
So Australia should cut all gas, uranium, coal, rare earths and iron ore supply to China? Dust it is, but its also high quality strategic dust.
Paul Keating. Said it all .
Mike, America's war machine is the elephant in the green house...having a fit. Since silicone valley fell flat, we are all fair game for Boeing cannon fodder.
Among all the top credible intelligence head honcho, I would rank CIA and Bill Burns as the best of the best. Why such high accolade? Because during the ass end of the Afghan war, his agency predicted that the Taliban won't reach Kabul for at least 3 months. It took only 2 weeks, and it caused huge panics among the superpower army. The subsequent retreat was far from being ordered. People climbed onto the wheel carriage of the evacuation planes and fell to their death reminds me of the "ordered" evacuation during the ass end of Vietnam war.
For the sake of balance, Mike Pezzullo gave his views. But we know he is a hawkish as one could get in terms of anti-China. And of course, one wold expect he had much to do with the direction Australia is heading, defence wise because he was Deputy Secretary of Defence and Home Affairs Secretary.
There is no point in pretending to be otherwise that Australia has chosen, it has chosen USA as its partner. And Pezzullo can be proud of that. USA is very good at using the perceived threats, and the offer of its military protection, to corral in frightened nations like Australia and European nations. NATO is a classic case in point. Dead scared of Russia thanks to the good work of Jens Stoltenberg, NATO now has 32 members, a proud achievement Stoltenberg is not slow to mention. But look at Ukraine, and Europe now. Europe is in a tangled mass of indecision. While they are trying to make up their mind, Ukraine is in "tactical retreat" mode. Are Ukrainians doing so much better than 2020?
Pezzullo and the rest of the hawks clearly see China is a threat, and USA says so too...that would surely carry some weight? Because of Australia's phobia of China, now it is clearly in USA's fold. How clearly? Well, 365 $Billions clear. Not only is Australia is going to be out of the pocket, it has now firmly committed to USA in term of defence. Can you imagine Australia level a bad word against USA? I can't see that because you are not going to be able to buy nuclear sub spare parts from Bunnings, or Repco, can you? So it is all the way with Uncle Sam.
The question one ought to ask is..."what benefits does China get if it conquer Australia, or Asia?" In fact, the correct question ought to be..."What would China do with the countries it conquered?" The Romans, the Mongols, the British Empire, all tried their hands on empire building, and were rather successful at that until...they ran out of steam. The Romans became weak and eventually absorbed by the countries they occupied. The Mongols was the same, but they don't have own cultures because they were but nomads, so they reverted to what they were...nomads. The British also lasted until the myth of being superior was busted by the Japanese Imperial Army.
So I would suggest that China sees right though the fallacy and folly of being an occupier because it never last. China wants resources. Yes, you heard me right...resources. How and why am I so sure about that? Let's go back to the ancient days of the Silk Road. China was a vibrant superpower, a superpower not in terms of military prowess, but trades and commodities. China mastered the silk production process, and kept it secret. It has the monopoly of the silk production because it won't allow the silk worms to be exported. The silk trades created the bustling trading between all nations linked by the silk road. China was rich beyond imagination.
I imagine the BRI is the modern day version of the Silk Road. Instead of horses and camels, now Kilometer long trains and air transport replacing them. China see a very different version of the world as opposed to the USA's.
But why would China want to control the South China sea ? It is about creating a buffer zone. N Korea is China's buffer zone against the potential incursion by USA, and the South China Sea serves the same purpose. Imagine having to worry about US warships hooning around 200 KM its border? What makes it worse is US's little buddy Australia also pretends it is larger than it really is, and joins USA to flex its muscles, lurking around in its $360 Billions worth of nuclear subs !!
In a nutshell, you can't choose your neighbour, but you can also make your neighbour what they are to become. Translation: Action always invite a reaction.
CCP Charley Chan, take the night off.
No NATO in the Pacific
I was very pleased to finally see an ABC program with balance, which in recent times has sadly been lacking.
Balance ?
There's a difference between balance and one sided propaganda .
-
I've finish this video yet ,
But your comment is highly a result of Over-educated ,
Over stimulated,
Over propagandize person reminiscent of people of DEMOCRATIC Republic of North Korea .
Take a chill pill , and start new sources of information.
It might do you some good .
The chosen speakers were in furious agreement. That's not 'balanced'.
@@enzoh7763 it is not difficult to identify your background by your comment. I have said nothing offensive, but you have read something into the comment that is not visible.
@@Waverlyduli they both agreed and disagreed with their different points of view, but were however very civil about it.
@@RobertAmer ,,
You could dig deeper into my background .
But to help you out ,
I'm a pro-peace advocate for over 50+ yrs , since my high school days .
You will know any discussion is balance or not ,
By their stance and which is "-almost -similar-" .
-
And there's a saying ,
a thief knows what the other thief think .
This was brilliant!
A respectful discussion between intelligent people with differing views.
I much prefer this to panel nonsense like Q&A (no offence), and I prefer the intimacy of this format over the grandstanding of Q&A and the cutaways shots to people in the audience.
Both gentlemen made some great points.
The neocons in the US seem determined to go to war with China, and it’s clear they don’t have sufficient resources, and would therefore rely on allies such as Australia. This makes me very uncomfortable indeed.
The US & British militaries are also experiencing shortfalls. I’m not sure where we’d get these soldiers from.
But as one of them said, perhaps we are overemphasising the number needed, rather than positions required.
Again, great discussion, thank you so much.
You don't see the USA as a threat? at least economicly
How can you possibly have a reasoned balanced debate on this without Paul Keating in this discussion?
Once upon a time maybe, these days Keating's as irrelevant as Alan Jones
@@erroreliminator2.076 What's your rationale? He now specialises in this topic so he should have been included in the discussion. It's a good discussion still.
Paul Keating is senile. His information is decades out of date. He might have been joking but he was saying China has steam boats and fails to recognise their military is one of the strongest in the world now. He still bases his strategic assessment on the 1980s when China was opening up and appearing to become more liberal, which went into reverse in 2008.
@@erroreliminator2.076 👍
@@TheMightyAbs Keating's opinion is based on information from the 80s. Kevin Rudd is a better expert from the political perspective but he fell out of favour with Beijing.
How refreshing to watch an interesting discussion on a controversial subject with participants with differing views, yet it be a calm, respectful, reasoned discussion and exchange of ideas and views; refreshingly civilised. We need more exchanges like this in the media that are mature and elevated.
You didn't notice they were in furious agreement?
@@Waverlyduli No .... because they weren't.
@@camt8804 You weren't paying attention.
@@Waverlyduli Did you even watch it?
@@camt8804 Clearly you didn't.
The Coming War on China is a great doco on this by Australian journalist John Pilger.
I'm all for a debate/conversation with differing views, however you're really scraping the bottom of the barrel when engaging Pezzullo, the disgraced former minister who blindly accepts everything that ASPI spews out even though he knows full well who is funding ASPI.
Yeah that guys reputation is trashed. Balance is great but integrity is really important
Who is funding ASPI?
Maybe I’m naive, but his answers seemed thoughtful to me.
@@justmemimi7338Your uncle
@@justmemimi733850% foreign govts and companies that profit from war and 50% Australian govt.
Sounds like your not focused on debate at all given that you're playing the man not the ball. Perhaps you're just a little out of your depth.
Angus Hanton latest book Vassal State: How America Runs Britain is just as applicable to Australia. Be nice to see Australians think about Australian national soverignity rather than being served up like Ukraine to China to line the aamerican war machines pockets.
"China Threat" is a means to an economic end. Marx arguement that Capitalism is the best paradigm for rapid industrialization, then fails in the rentier phase, is still compelling.
A Virginia Class Sub costs 3.4Billion, we just agreed to pay over $350Billion for 8 of them. I can’t believe no one has brought this up.
Australia down there and taiwan up there. Explain why should usa care when china never threaten usa. These guys are fools.
Yup. They can talk very well, but they are convincingly brainless and bias.
Pretty easy, the whole point of investing in China and outsourcing global manufacturing was the idea that economic liberalisation would lead to cultural and political liberalisation as living conditions rose in China. Since 2008 political liberalisation stalled, arguably it was the US's fault with the GFC but since 2016 the politics has been moving back towards being soviet.
China is a threat to Australia if and only if Australia is a threat to China. Most of the time, Australia think they are militarily and economically powerful and formidable. They have over estimated their capability. To China, Australia is too far away from the rest of the world, that is, too remote and too small. Australia is treated as 2nd tier city in China as what Huawei Chairman said when interviewed by BBC. Australia is still politically backward, still have the mentality of being a British subject and pawn of US. Good luck.
Australians, especially the whites, seems to think they are among the most advanced countries in the world. In reality, Australia is very backward, especially if you compare Australia with countries like Indonesia , South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, etc. Australia seems rich by GDP indicators but it is really very backward. Very soon, Australia will be behind some states and cities in India or Bangladesh.
No threat is those who want war and make money.
This conversation makes more sense than other western medias. Australia is too small for China. Australia needs china more for it's exports than china needs Australia. Aussie leaders need to look at economic perspective than military blind perspective lead by USA for it's military industrial complex and benefits. Thank for your analysis and it' really makes sense as a Papua New Guinea listen to all you said.
Which countries had invaded occupied bombed other countries and killed millions of civilians in the past few years? Which countries aided another country committing genocide in the middle east ?
Let me guess - Russia? (Georgia, Afghanistan , Ukraine ?)
Counter behaviour: Tibet, Xin Jiang, Mongolia, Vietnam, Fa Long Gong and religious oppression, ...
China loves Australia pristine agricultural product (lobster, abalone, crayfish, wine, milk powder).
China sells Australia contaminated pet food.
China loves quality Australian raw materials (thermal coal, iron ore, LNG)
China sells Australia cheap shoddy manufactured goods (potential landfill) made with Uyghur slave labour.
Just remember the answer that was given when David Langie the NZ prime minister asked the question over ANZAS treaty.
The answer from America was " America will act in the best interests of America"
Good discussion.
Sam is a very clear thinker and his book is an informative and thought provoking read - shame more politicians are not open to his type of genuine, independent thinking on these matters.
I’ve not read the book, but am interested in doing so.
Absolutely agree with the need for more intellectually curious politicians. Often, the focus seems to be on the game of politics, rather than really coming to grips with their work, and seeking diverse opinions.
One of the dangers of government, is groupthink.
The question Aussies should ask themselves is, does Australia want to be an independent, sovereign country , or does it want to be an appendage to US geopolitical machinations thus becoming an American pawn that PRC can easily crushed.
We wouldn't need to recruit foreign defence recruits if the ADF actually processed the applications from Australians in any sort of timely way. We should have a commission into the bottle-necking which causes many young people to give up after waiting months or years and start other occupations.
These recruits will fight and die for the US during the China - Taiwan conflict, would you fight for the US national interest?
Easy recruit 2 million from PLA then there is no treat from China
Recruit from China then is no treat
@@trumpbuddha1053 Nope. I'm Australian. Our priority is Australian interests.
@@trumpbuddha1053 Would you fight for the CCP band1t$? No, I didn't think so. Everyday on the Chinese intranet ordinary Chinese are now increasingly expressing their animosity and lampooning the CCP autocracy in spite of the risks. You know it. It's really an eye opener. Xi's security detail grows larger and ever more paranoid by the day. You're really wasting your time running spin for the regime. Look for other work. Being a bot in China is even more soul-destroying than it used to be. Move on, good luck. 照顧自己 , 但是，你要记住尊重自己.
As a NZer in a heavily Chinese import and Export economy i think this is very relevant.
Edit at the end: Good that they really listened to each other and acknowledge where they agreed as well as had differences of opinion.
And they want to build an East Coast Submarine base in nowhere.....
There's no such place as "no where" but don't be afraid.
I was impressed and largely agree with Sam - Very intelligent analysis - in regards to the fact that the USA has already lost economic primacy in the Asia pacific area and whether the USA has the Resolve, Stomach, or Will to come to Australia's defence in case of Chinese attack - and also agree with Sam that the current ANZUS Treaty is worth only as much as the character and political backing of the standing political leaders in the USA at the time [in other words it is worth nothing] - as the American voter consider their core personal and national interest does not extend from the USA Homeland borders- whereby they will all beat back the bad guys in their home redoubt with AR 15s. Hence the USA can only be expected to offer a Ukrainified level of support if we are attacked - and will take no direct military action to defend Australia or any other nation, as they consider their core national interests are not strong enough to do so. They have proved this in the Ukraine - WW1 and WW2 etc. Hence we must face this fact and consider our own core national interests before the USA's from now on. The only thing I dont agree with Sam on is our force make up and how would should plan for our own defence.
why is Australia such a lapdog for American foreign policy.
Australia let's focus on our strengths rather than trying to spoil/ contain China's rise. In fact we have actually risen with the China boom and avoided the fallout from the 2008 crisis due to China. China is the hand that currently feeds us. However, i understand our historical colonial tides are with Britain/ Western allies but this is changing. Like the hosts said US is not likely to have direct involvement in China conflict and risk WW3. It is not an existential threat for mainland USA.
The US has lost its primacy in the Asia Pacific region with the rise of China. I'm seriously worried about the Ukrainification of Australia/ region. I don't want Australia to be used as a battering ram against China. America will print the money to pay for the weapons to arm Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Australia etc. We that live here will pay with our lives to defend the failing US/ Anglo- American primacy. US hegemony is over. WAKE UP!
We will also pay with our economies as is evident with the deindustrialization of Europe while America benefits/ attracts industry.
The US and Allies can stop some of this decline by investing in productive investments to make us as countries more competitive with China rather than unproductive weapons which will only lead to destruction. It is all about Anglo- American Empire remaining as #1 by knocking down the rising power before it gets too strong and the cost to America/ allies becomes too great.
My greatest fear is America will support separatist in Taiwan to spark a conflict with China whilst it still has a military advantage in the region and can block trade routes that feed China's economy. China knows it can't defend/ protect trade routes eg malaka strait where China gets 90% of energy through. China is not going to instigate war/ conflict when it knows it can be choked out. That it why it is developing its navy very fast.
Australia has abundant natural resources we should find ways to leverage that advantage by adding value to it here rather than just shipping "lower" value commodities. We need to develop/ strengthen Australia rather than weaken China.
China has been around for approximately 5000 years, but when did they invade other countries? They lost Mongolia and part of Siberia. Just imagine if China claimed they would defend Tasmania against an Australian invasion.
Well in terms of countries China has attacked, the list is actually quite long if you want to go back 5000 years… China borders 14 countries after all. Just Ask the Indians or the Vietnamese if they see China as a benevolent actor. But more to the point, 5000 years ago there was no “China” as we know it today and throughout its history it has variously been characterised as a collection of kingdoms that all had their own dialects, cultures and rulers. In a certain sense there have been periods where it more resembles medieval Europe and it took much conquest to consolidate and pacify those identities. So conquest and pacification is very much in China’s bloodstream - it’s how all land empires like them succeed.
As for the Tasmania example, that’s frankly kind of ridiculous for 2 reasons: 1. If Tasmania wanted to be a separate country to Australia, then there are constitutional mechanisms for them to do that democratically - they’re simply not asking to leave; 2. Australia isn’t attempting to force the notion of “one Australia” onto any provinces and so there’s no fiction the government in Canberra needs to threaten violence to maintain. Honestly, the Taiwan situation is more like if Australia threatened to “retake New Zealand” because they were historically part of the same British colonial governing structure and were very nearly part of Australia’s Federation (there was a vote on it). If a foreign power had said they’d protect the sovereignty of NZ over Australia making such flimsy claims, then New Zealand would have every right to court them as they have made clear over and over again that they have no interest in being part of Australia - whatever historical relationship there was.
@@DeftPol According to your theory, you are saying German and Japan were invaded by the ally forces? Lol. China was acting in self-defense to prevent other countries from provoking at its borders and killing innocent Chinese citizens. China won both wars but did not immediately return without retaining any foreign land. If missiles are launched from military bases in Japan, Australia, or even the US during the China-Taiwan conflict, China will likely retaliate. Australian soldiers, in such a scenario, might find themselves in a precarious position, not fully understanding what they are fighting for.
@@trumpbuddha1053I’m not sure who that comment was directed at, but it wasn’t in response to anything I wrote… nowhere did I say anything about WWII. You’re the one that invoked 5000 years of history and that is what I was addressing - the idea China has been a benign power is ridiculous. It is a land empire and always has been, and like all land empires it seeks to suppress its peripheries.
@DeftPol. You write with so much loose ends I don't even know where to start. So I'll just take two points. First, you talk as if in all the border wars and skirmishes that China had been involved in, China was the bad guy (you at least implied so). This is, of course, rubbish.
Second, you discount 5,000 years of China's existence by simply saying that was not the China we have today, and somehow can't expect the same behaviour from Chiba today. Well, it is the same Chinese civilization with the same values and way of thinking. Just because the British empire no longer exists, it doesn't mean Britain today is different from pre-World War II Britain in terms of its way of thinking and behaviour.
It was Malaysia's ex-prime minister Mahathir Mohammed who said that Malaysia traded with China for centuries and never got colonized, but when it traded with the Europeans, it was colonized within a few years.
Does Australia need to fear a Chinese invasion? The honest, intelligent answer is no. If countries in South East Asia (much closer to China geographically than Australia) don't fear a Chinese invasion, why should Australia? What ASEAN countries really fear is a war in their neighbourhood started by the USA. And Australia is encouraging this by giving the US the wrong signals.
@@katong1953 Spot on
Lowie Inst is close, However America's economic mode of operation is dominate or be dominated, however america has gained so much with thanks to China, so the precept of conflict is grossly misguided.
Wow ABC site with comments enabled!!! And how did the labour government fire Mike who was being interviewed!?!?
Rare. And don't the comments give some cause for hope? Maybe Australia isn't as stupid as ABC bosses try to portray.
They need to collect the commission from the 50 cent army.
LACHLAN told Albo he can allow comments . Only this time - mind you.😂
@@zoek1133 Probably CCP ordered Albo to allow it so their bots could post. What is the use of a bot army if comment sections are disabled by default.
All descendants of the same ancestors, who think they know everything but haven't walked the earth as much other civilisations, and who talk with forked tongues
Ask the in as native Americans, they know best who speaks with a forked tongue.
@@WWLooi-js8rl Ask the Buddhist Tibetans whilst you're at it.
@@Ozcrazy49 Yes, we should. In comparison with Uyghurs in Xinjang and Tibetans in Xizang (Tibet), tell me where native Americans stand now? How did their population dwindle from 70 million prior to European arrivals to merely less than 10 millions today? If you provide me with your honest answers, I can do the same with Tibetans and Uyghurs.
@@WWLooi-js8rl How's this for honesty. The Uyghurs are subject to slave labour, making cheap shoddy products to sell to the rest of the world. The American Indians are not.
Canada is next door to the US, yet it is not roped into a Taiwan war. Australia, unfortunately, appears knee-deep into a war that will only harm itself. It needs intelligent politicians to steer our country out of harm's way. Canada considered nuclear submarines in 1987 by conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, but that was the end of it within a year. Strangely, the US was afraid of a Canada with nuclear submarines! Australia, like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, should understand the risk of a great powers war.
Speers has ruined this once great masthead in my opinion….it is my view that the panels are stacked with LNP friendly commentators. Interviews with Shadow ministers more often than actual ministers. For God’s sake how many times do we have to listen to the inane propaganda of Angus Taylor which Speers rarely challenges? He constantly interrupts when people are actually answering his question… he is so desperate for the “gotcha” moment. Go back to Newscorp where you belong.
As Sam said the US provides arms and logistics, but no American and NATO troops are moving into Ukraine.
And the same with Taiwan, the US won't risk a war with a nuclear power.
It is nonsense that we Australian the payer of the subs the other two, uk and the us are the fee gainers. We, Australian should be subordinate to neither of the two. We stand with them when it is for the fair cause not blindly follow the two bullies.
Imagine if there was a major crisis and Australia refused to go, then what happens to them?
Then Australia doesn't waste $Bs and thousands of lives to further US hegemony.
CCP Charley Chan, take the night off.
Then Australia won't be a nuclear target. All US military assets are targeted, including Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne, Darwin, Alice Springs....... At least Auckland won't, so guys, when it gets too nuclear hot, book the last flight to NZ.
@@Geoff020650 Abso;utely wrong and just a plain stupid t hought by you. It means we will have NO DEFENCE ! That's what it means.
@@Geoff020650 Australia as nuclear target because of nuclear powered subs was just a load of over-hyped twaddle from wolf warriors back during CoVid and sanctions when the the story first broke. Don't be too quick to play their dupe. Australia has a right to both allies and self defence.
Can Pezzullo really be taken seriously at this point?
Both Australia the USA are signatories to the One China policy. Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade currently state the following regarding the policy:
‘Australia adheres to its one-China policy, which means we do not recognize Taiwan as a country. We maintain unofficial contacts with Taiwan promoting economic, trade and cultural interests.’
...and on another page from DFAT:
‘with the establishment of diplomatic relations with the PRC in 1972 Australia's Joint Communiqué with the PRC recognised the Government of the PRC as China's sole legal government and acknowledged the position of the PRC that Taiwan was a province of the PRC.’
Can someone at the ABC please explain to me why the Australian and USA governments are warning China not to ‘invade’ its own territory (Taiwan) and are also encouraging and arming Taiwan to defend itself against possible Chinese aggression?
Also, IMO any direct threat posed by China to the Australian mainland is fanciful and completely unrealistic. China has not shown any imperialistic ambitions and its increased military expenditure is in response to the direct threat posed by the establishment of many US funded military bases that now effectively encircle the Chinese mainland.
Finally in regard to AUKUS...By the time we take possession of submarines they will almost certainly be obsolete. A total waste of money! Warfare will look very different in 30 years time and will in all likely-hood be dominated by unmanned munitions and controlled with AI.
I’m glad someone raised the One China policy.
Absolutely and totally correct have we all forgotten that One China Policy that we signed and agreed on . 😊
Let me pose a question: if you are not smart enough, not working hard enough, and not preparing enough for exams, ...one day a new kid joins your class, and this kid is really smart, aggressive and hardworking, will you label this kid a threat??????
What more surprising than Australia keep provoking China is , THEY ACTUALLY OPEN THE COMMENT SECTION.
This was the most mature conversation on this topic I've seen so far. Thank you so much!
Aukus will become an albatross of generational debt on australia - not au$668B but truly $1.5 Trillion - and aus will become just like Uk and USA and Europe whom are all now facing DEBT that is unsustainable. I have never heard of volunteering for such financial foolishness by committing to aukus
The curse of white supremacy 😂
Which country threatened Australian security? China and Australia has huge trade and economic cooperation. Taiwan is part of China and based on the reunification of Macau and Hong-Kong, it have been peaceful and economically viable. USA only want Taiwan as it cannon fodder and it's chip manufacturing capacity
I participated in the drafting and negotiation of the document of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and was personally responsible for some of the practical aspects of dismantling the diplomatic representation of Republic of China (ROC - Taiwan) in Canberra. It might be helpful, therefore, if I offered some clarification regarding the One China Policy and the status of Taiwan.
The status of Taiwan as a province of China was not established by agreement on recognition of the PRC by the USA in 1979. The formulation used was identical to that which we had thrashed out in negotiation with the PRC seven years earlier, under which Australia agreed to the One China Policy.”
Please read the Mr John Lander’s article.
President Eisenhower warned about the profit seeking Military-industrial Complex and endless wars; nevertheless, Australia decided to be their deputy sheriff and be complicit in most of their needless wars.
Australia needs to become a non-aligned country.
We are already a military base. Have people forgotten Pinegap? Which is just growing in size, and it makes us a target. What do we get in return for that? Not even extending their water to the native camps but taking over their land. It's wrong!
Naive comment worthy of the moniker "Cherry Blossom". Pine Gap is part of the Five Eyes aliance. Australia is an advanced economy, geographically large, isolated and sparsly populated. The most powerful economy in the region is a secretive, un-mandated autocracy with a rapidly expanding navy abroad and terrible human rights record at home.
Grow up
Chinese economy is a tragedy and the regime has become so ludicrously repressive. It must be hard for you over there.
@@Waverlyduli Where do you get that false view. I've been to China and going again., looks good to me people are happy well fed, housed and money to spend on fathion, a lot of it western brands.. Have you been recently?
@@ralphzoombeenie2330 Australians are used to breathing clean air and taking shade from our overly blue sky. I don't think we would find such familiarity in China.
If the seasons pass and a waterfall stops, it is part of natures cycle. China has risen and now the waterfall is not natural, but forced. Better tourism exists elsewhere.
As a running dog of America, I can sense how Australians worry about their feature.
The balance between India, China and ASEAN will develop over the coming decades. It seems both Australias and The US along with Korea and Japan have an interest in developing Indias military industrial complex and building economic ties with ASEAN. If that’s the case we are a tail to a front end. Do we have sufficient ability to supply? Do we have the logistics capability? Do we have the energy reserves? Arguably none of the above I’d say. Developing military capability is one thing. Having a strategic position in trade and plant and capital is another and we lack focus on that.
Power balances and balancing power are core foreign policy, it promotes trade and peace and prosperity. Our domestic focus, what our part is, is mute, or poorly thought out. We could export abundant cheap power to ASEAN and indeed throughout Asia. Where is our policy there? Stuck in domestic political wilderness of not building solar and battery capacity. At least Mike Cannon Brooks has foresight. Our political class is seemingly a bunch of bellybutton gazers.
Great ideas, like that of Australia's in the 70s. Post coup act in friegn interest first and foremost
Indians have already invaded Australia and NZ.
But have a better system than the CCP
Well, it's never end and very greyhound areas, and it's expensive.
you seem to have some false comfort when talking about such "balance", the cause is not complex - there was literally no cost to play such "balance" in the past. Ever considered the possibilities that someone else could start to play the same "balance" game with AUS? Surely some Aboriginals would be delighted to have aids when seeking more independent rights, in the end it is their land their future, right? Maybe a more militarily prepared Islamic country to the north of Darwin with a more balanced region? Think twice.
China is no threat. This is more distracting you with external problems that don't exist and ignoring internal problems.
Very good show nice to hear experts in their field be so Frank. Thought provoking.
Sad to see how miss informed Australia is regarding such issues. This was very uninformative and the peoples comments were simple and silly at times I didn’t accept this from two professional adults regarding this topic.
Excellent. Mature and intelligent conversation about an important topic. Need more of these.
Australia should never go to war because US wants it. No war is good for everyone
*The price of sovereignty is the ability for self defense*
Australia for Ausralians.Not for USA.
China have no point to invade Australia. Not worth to do that.
Agree. This is a fascinating conversation. 🎉
Might want to research composite warfare also.
If you live in Australia, you will properly agree that Australian teenagers are posed bigger threats😅
Distance used to be an ally for Australia, NOT any more ! And what is wrong with escalation of capacity and who would YOU rather align with? There are only 2 choices.
❤warmonger, leaned your bloody history, god sake😮😮ohhohh ,Australia needs cannon fodders to joint defend force not in press.
Leave China alone. Get your house in order first and don't be a trouble maker.
True. Not just B1 & B2 in Fillipeen's annee moore. Now it's B# B4 B5 b&b 8. - a Phillip Hughes bodeeline incident
Not anymore 12:38
To the nay sayers, China is always a threat no matter what. Australia can do no wrong and China can do no right!
Labour are part of the problem when it comes to needing both partners to work
Correct 10:58
Based on the question posed in the title of this video, the blunt response should be that China is the main nuclear weapons state in our region ( notwithstanding North Korea’s small arsenal).China has the largest Naval force in the world which is rapidly growing still. China is belligerently using that force to bully regional countries ( including our own) with that force. China is an authoritarian state which seeks to supplant US and western hegemony in the region and the world. China is already using its grey power warfare capabilities in every manner possible, diplomaticly, economically, and using cyberspace.
Yes China is a threat!
Will Australian allow the Indonesia to build up their military capability to counter the threat from the Australia.
The first sensible discussion I have heard on China any potential threat to Australia.
Only because the ABC found two people in furious agreement with your view.
Guaranteed. They have extremely valuable assets here. Such as pine gap. And our over the horizon radar. 21:43
Around au another threat is japan’s military ambition. Australia weakest point is shortage of war readiness minion.
You can look back in history how Asia was like when China were in its prime, the whole of East Asia and South East Asia were either Part of the Middle Kingdom, like Vietnam and Korea, or a vassal state, like Thailand or the Malay pennisular, interestingly they did not expand their control and influence through war, whenever China were united again the new Empire will send diplomats to all neighbouring countries to remind them to visit China and pay their tribute
You can't put boots on the ground on a tiny island.
There is a limited window of opportunity to do that after China places boots on the ground.
The Marines are in rotation for exactly that reason.
23:43
The only boots China place in Taiwan are fake Italian shoes sold at high end stores. China is not a colonizing
nation like , UK, France, Spain. Get over it. Chinese people are traders and not out to step on your soil except as tourist.
you really can know a man by the company he keeps. How is ANYONE at the ABC approving this?
Taiwan is a domestic issue of China. Why are these Australian intellects so ignorant of that and advocating China a threat to Australia? Obviously the common Australians have been misled by these intellects - and one of the most influential Australian state machinery - the Australia Broadcastimg Corporation.
These “experts” are experts at reviewing the Anglo propaganda that’s already broadcast.
That is correct. We ain't the only one pulling strings don't forget that. 31:28
The response to China's threat largely depends on its military power. If China possesses six aircraft carriers and can repel the US Navy from the second and third island chains, Australia might adopt a neutral position between the US and China. Should China and its allies become significantly more powerful than the US, Australia could align itself with China.
Currently, the US maintains military superiority, making it prudent for Australia to remain aligned with the US.
😂😂😂They CIA never stops fear mongering