Peter Zeihan talks about #Poland becoming a regional superpower with the decline of Russia and Germany #peterzeihan #peterzeihankeynote #newpeterzeihan
Visited Poland last summer and before that in 2016. What a difference. I mean, it was great even back then, but now - just wow. What a prosperous, powerful, beautiful country.
As an American, I would like to thank Poland, the Polish people, and agencies for supporting Ukraine. It is, of course, in your interest and that of the free world to do so, but I also think you have just collectively stepped up and taken on the tough task of assisting Ukrainian families as well as the effort to stop Psychopath putin's hideous war on humanity.
@@marieskavo7159tak mamy trochę ukraincow,..przed wojna też mielismy. Tylko mniej. Struktura się zmieniła teraz jest więcej kobiet ,dzieci i starszych. .wielu mężczyzn wróciło na ukraine... Duży odsetek ukraincow pracuje.
As polish I don’t support Ukraine and there corrupt government. People do need to get helped thou . But we shouldn’t forget about katyn massacre by the Ukrainian s . Ukrainian never existed was a satellite state create by Russia . After ww2 do Lwow polish city was taken . No Ukrainian will say that it was ever part of Poland . As polish person Gdańsk and Wrocław was German cities but Ukrainian s will not accept that lwow was polish city .
@@ifyoudontfailyouarenoteven6210 indeed, all joking aside, its going to be like 1917/1918 in Russia - we know what followed this time - the horrors of communism
4:17 It was six years later - in 1610 🙂. An not "held it for generation". It lasted 2 years, untill 1612 and Polish troops for most part were actually locked within borders of Kremlin. There's a deeper historical context to what happend back there and it's more complex than just Polish troops present in Moscow.
First statement is wrong. The last biggest industrial rise happened just before regaining independence. Russia has imposed very high tax duty on imported fabrics from Germany. So what the German industrialists did? They moved their factories to Łódź which was a small village just behind the border. Łódź turned into industrial hub in no time. As the entire region was impoverished the effect was even more dramatic. Economic growth rate dwarfed UK or Germany as they were much ahead of Poland. Growth was so big that it impacted politics and both Imperial Russia and Germany started considering creating "independent but friendly only to them" Polish state. It turned out, Poland at that stage did not need foreign powers to help get to independence, it just need them to be exhausted after the war.
Was it Poland or the Grand Duchy of Lithuania that conquered Moscow? Of course there was what I've heard that they called "Nasze dwa domy" or the Commonwealth of Poland and Lithuania, so it might be difficult to untangle. Their winged hussars saved Germany and Austria from the Mongols and Ottomans, then they were rewarded by partitions. If Poles are suspicious of their neighbors, they have reasons.
@@sirrathersplendid4825 Wasn't it more like the "Personal Union" of England and Scotland that otherwise retained independent governments? As I understand it the relationship changed from time to time, as would likely happen if the Grand Duke of Lithuania became King of Poland or the King of Poland became Grand Duke.
@@JMM33RanMA - The Polish-Lithuanian personal union occurred in 1386 with the marriage of Grand Duke Jogaila-Jagiełło to the Polish monarch Jadwiga. The formal union was cemented, however, only with the Union of Lublin in 1569.
The Poles occupied Moscow in 1610 (not 1604)! And they didn’t hold it for a generation but only for two years, until 1612 (though they continued to have a significant influence until 1613/14).
@@smftrsddvjiou6443 I particularly liked how he was making points about Russian and German demographics in relation to Poland - without even bothering to look at the Polish demographics for comparision.
Poland is Eastern Europes Celtic Tiger similar to Ireland in the early naughties . Unfortunately Peter is wrong about his pontificating around outcomes he claims are inevitable. I must say he’s fun to watch and is always entertaining.
US naval power Zeihan says we need at least 800 destroyers and frigates to support globalization, but that we have only 60. He says this is because our navy “retooled” after the cold war. At the post-war height of our naval power in 1987, we had 184 destroyers and frigates (Regan’s 600-ship Navy). Nothing like 800. By 1992, a year after the cold war, we had 207. Today, we have about 63 (this is the only place Zeihan has his numbers right). The only time we had anywhere near the 800 Zeihan says we need for globalization was in 1945, at the end of WWII, when we had 738 destroyers and frigates (and a 6768-ship Navy). By the next year, in 1946, we had 180 destroyers and frigates, having “retooled” for peace time.
You are right about that. The "need" for the larger number of ships ignores several factors. First a US super carrier alone has about the same fire power as the entire French military, and its tech and planes control a larger area than a group of smaller vessels, and it is always accompanied by a strike force. Second, the statement made by Zeihan appears to suppose total control at all times by a worldwide empire. Even at its imperial height Britain did not exercise such complete control over its quarter of the globe. The US succeeded in the Barbary Wars not because it had total control, permanent presence and a huge navy, but because it had convinced the pirates that they could be attacked and seriously damaged if they continued.
When there are no other naval competitors (like after ww2), you can get away with decommissioning a majority of your ships. Not to mention, trade volume has only increased since then, so more ships to protect too. Sooo more ships to protect, and more possible foes to protect it from in recent times. But you are right in that it seems like peter pulled the 800 number out of his ass.
The navies contractor ship builders and repair yards....are a disaster. Plus we decided to cool it with our Arleigh Burke destroyers and do some "new" stuff that was untested..and didn't/ doesn't work. The Navy has thrown away tens of billions of dollars and is way behind in just about every category. I wish it wasn't so....but it is.
@14:01 I want to put forward a hypothesis since Peter does not, if we seperate the real economy from the financial sector, and we concede that yes consumption and investment led growth falters, we still have a very large swath of capital and liquidity that has come about as the end result of all that growth. I therefore foresee that liquidity will move faster from the real economy into the financial sector to be deployed into yield, commodities and digital commodities like btc. Remember if the incentive to invest in the real economy is faltering, debasement and inflation are still very real issues. If the end goal is to try and accumulate assets by generating profits in the real economy, then we skip the profits part and go straight to the accumulation of assets part. So many, I believe, wrongly conclude that low growth means a bearish equity or commodities or precious metals market, Im simply saying I believe the opposite will happen.
My biggest criticism of Peter Zeihan's presentation is his tie. "Yeah, yeah....globalization, demographics, blah...blah...blah..." But holy shit Peter, you wore that tie in public!?
Not good result but tipical for post comunist countries. A lot of that GDP is generated by international corporations and transfered outside of Poland.
Well you need understand because babies and children don't generate economic data this kind of information will blind side you before realize what is happening. Remember when you have half empty cities that look like ghost town by then it's too late to do something about it.
@@alko_xoTo get to the point we'll no longer have to so we can help other countries get there too (economically speaking). Also your remark is typical for US/western EU boomer but let's not forget that it was your generation that was supposed to prevent most of modern problems from ever appearing. Instead the lot of you bought as much land and/or real estate as possible and forced younger generations into loaning instead of having property. Hope you're proud of yourself.
That's the point of 700+ i guess? (The mentioned PiS government paid out monthly 500, then 700 per child - families that felt encouraged with that may not always supply doctors, lawyers, scientists and engineers, but army recruits - quite likely)
Black swan event, that can render all geopolitical projections wrong is mass scale introduction of humanoid robots, it will create new economics it is new model, of course hand in hand with development of A.I.
In the 1990s, many Western companies invested in oil fields to reap profits. Then Putin came and nationalized these companies. Over time, oil reserves become depleted. I heard that Russia wanted to extract oil fields on the Taymyr Peninsula. It's very far north. The district in which this peninsula is located is over 2.5 of Poland. The population of this district is 34,000 people, of which 22,000 live in the capital (Dudinka). Are you confident that they will be able to build mining and transport infrastructure to maintain production levels?
I have been following Peter for quite some time now. I am curious why the seems so dogged about not using Android (if Apple has such a horrible supply chain problem and is/was overprized as can be).
A lot of people look down on ad hominem thinking. I don't. They reveal a lot about the meta-conversation-trends in what people are afraid of, etc. (not to mention current levels of education).
All this DEMGRAPHICS, yeah, but you don't mention (so I assume not account too) IMMIGRATION. USA without immigration wouldn't have good demographics either.
Numbers of people aren't really significant in this century when war is involved, as Ukraine has shown. They are outnumbered by 3 or 4 to 1 and numerically in tanks and aircraft far beyond that. Yet have destroyed Russia military capability by about 40% in 2 years. Yes, they have had a lot of weapons provided but in numbers of people it hasn't hurt them much. Wars in the 21st century will be a lot different than the 20th.
Why would you put a person in a GERMAN WWII uniform (at 2:29) used now days for reconstructing battles and suggest that's a modern polish solder? Shame on you!
Poland will never be a superpower or an empire. We should stop behaving like it's something that should happen. Poland should be an average country, but good in its averageness. We should aim at having good life quality not some pipe dream of being an empire. Mam nadzieję, że Polacy to zrozumieją.
No one is saying it needs to be an empire. It just needs to be solid and stable and free. And it is and it will be. (but if it wants to free Belarus....that's fine).
Polish problems come from the fact that it never had the industrial revolution. It was sponsored by the governament beafore and after llww.Its a commerce and consumption oriented society. Not mutch in terms of the modern product design and production.
Looking outside my window in Łódź, I can tell you the industrial revolution definitely happened here. The same applies to the whole Gdańsk - Wrocław-Rzeszów triangle.
@@Pandzikizlasu80 Poland was mainly agrocultural land beafore llww . Industralizarion of Poland was state sponsored . E. Kwiatkowski (was a great pole and visionary) did try to make Poland in to industrial state.Was stoped by Piłsudski who thought that this plan was to centalized and to soviet in its nature. Read some of the Kwiatkowskis opinions on this subject. He lists the reasons why grassroots industrial revolution is not possibile in Poland . So, COP, GDYNIA , PZL and so on did happen but they were sponsored from the top down. Just as it was under communism after the war. This is not how the changes in SOCIAL makeup of societies take place. Granted there were some exeptions to that. URSUS, CEGIELSKI and what you see from your window. But the problem is that is quite narrow view.
@@piotr.leniec-lincow5209 What you see outside a window in Łódź is a damn million people 19th century industrial agglomeration, but I know, we are not true Poles. True Poles live only in your ancestors village.
Łódź was industralized not under the Polish rule. Water mains , politechnik and mutch more were build in Warsaw under Moscow supervision.This are facts. But this is not the point however. You think you know more about this topic than Kwiatkowski? Think again.Let some hot air out. Anyway , show me Polish consumer industrial products made now or then. Why Polish expositions at World Expos display oscypeks and apples? And please skipp sportowa syrenka and scooter OSA. Industrial relates to the factories but the revolution part happens inside poples minds.THIS never happened in Poland. And probably it is to late now.
@@piotr.leniec-lincow5209 The only thing Russians were doing in Łódź, was taking bribes and shooting to workers. The town was pointed out as suitable for development by local authorities, by Rajmund Rembieliński in 1821 under the Kingdom of Poland local law, not Russian. Development of economy was an act of opposition against the Empire, you can call it organic work, however this term was established decades later.
3:45 "We'll haeve the Poles being more and more and more agressive [...] and push into the former Russian space in order to break it." (1) We, the Poles are not aggresive and we are not getting "more agressive". We just want to leave in pace, do our things within our borders and within EU. There's no talk, thought or need to go anywhere outside our own borders. "Aggressivenes zero!" 😉 - as one famous senctence from a Polish commedy tells. (2) I'm not sure what territory do you mean by "Russian space", but if anything within current Russain borders than nobody in sound mind in Poland has any serious plans of attacking Russia. We may prepare for possible conflict but only as a defensive part of it. Unless you meant a former Soviet USSR territory (?). Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Ukraine and Belarus (the last one with a caveat) are independent states, first 3 are NATO members - again: no need for us, the Poles to "push into" their territories.
Yes, Zeihan has never stopped referring to Ukraine and Belarus as Russian territories. This so-called expert is stuck in the 19th century, operates under the 19th century ideology, and has missed very real nation-building happening right under his nose.
Right!? I mean, German manufacturing is already back on the upswing after the Ukraine invasion. Granted, there was a slump where German industry had to look for new energy sources. It has apparently found them. So I look at Peter Zeihan (and pundits like him), and it looks to me like they are confusing a temporary downturn for a permanent trend. As for demographics? The Germans currently have to beat off skilled immigrants with a stick and have had to do so for decades. I really don't see how they can fail to fill their workforce even with mediocre birthrates. I know the mythology of sudden collapse is real popular thanks to our ready consumption of doomsday apocalyptic movies and news, but it really doesn't look hold up on closer scrutiny. Frankly, I think the Germans will continue to be a manufacturing powerhouse in our lifetimes and any hiccup is an outlier.
@@donaldclifford5763 let's make it short: yes, all about Germany (and even Poland - a nation that has the same "trade role" than Austria and the Czech Republic: sell precursor to the German industry and not much more). Germany will sell goods to the world independent of US-China stress - at least if there aren't any better alternatives. Poland btw has a real problem with xenophobia and not more kids than its neighbors combined with a much smaller salary - so everything Zeihan tells here about Poland is based on wet dreams. Germany at least can allure workers if they need them. Something Poland simply can't and so the future of the whole economy there is very limited. Poland buying some weapons is understandable at the moment but will not change the possibilities for Poland in Europe (and the world) - their "strength" if we really want to use this word here depends on their US-puppet role and not much more.
Looks like Peter Zeihan has a large following in Poland. I find that difficult to comprehend. Most of the real experts in the wide range of topics this man brags about really can't take much of what he says seriously.
Przestańcie klepać nas po pleckach i wmawiać nam jacy jesteśmy cudowni. Zostawcie nas w spokoju, nie będziemy się bić dla waszych profitów. Get out of our land we do nor trust you!!!!
So... are we seeing the rise of Polish Militarism (based on bad experiences in the Second World War), like history saw the rise of Prussian Militarism (based on bad experiences in the Thirty Years' War)?
You are correct in the unknown analysis of the world's economic future. But, like most economists, you leave out the consideration of an overpopulated world and the natural environment's ability to provide the resources to feed this greater and greater number of people. So, the greatest question is, will the countries losing population be able to rethink their economies and rebuild an economy that is green and sustainable? Depopulation with a green and sustainable economy is the ultimate challenge for the world's future.
Food is not a problem at the moment. Currently, Polish (and indeed the whole of Eastern Europe) farmers are protesting because the EU has abolished customs duties for Ukraine and this has greatly disrupted the markets. Poland alone exported food worth EUR 52 billion. Ukraine has much better soil conditions than Poland and better climatic conditions. If there are four times as many people in the world, there will be enough food.
We have terrible demographics, our army is small in terms of people. Forget it. We now have our golden era - wyż demograficzny. From now we are on decline.
Yes, but the point is that all enemy powers around is collapsing. That why with an alliance with America, and Sweden, then Poland becomes the power in region. ✊
@@alko_xo Poland simply does not want migrants from non-European cultures who refuse to integrate and accept European values, or worse still, attempt to impose their values and norms such as Sharia law on the host country. Poland has a small Muslim (Tatar) community going back over 600 years plus over 100k refugee migrants from Putin's Chechen war. It also has Georgian and Armenian communities as well as a large Vietnamese one.
what is the cost to stop angin polish people ? max 5% od budget, simple math 400,000 deaths/per year - 300,000 born/per year = minus 100,000 / 3= 33,000 * 1 000 000= 33 000 000 000 PLN (its like 5% of budget) you do/buy flat and give it to 2+2 family from Brazil (many speak polish), from Uzbekistan - language similar etc, kids need to be lik few years old AND PROBLEM RESOLVED With LOW COST but to they want realy to resolve it ?
0:50 Well, recent history Not “easily”, no. The terrory was occupied in the Swedish deluge in the 17th century and in WWII. It was annexed by combined diplomacy and military moves before. “The Swedes” no. Also “it’s” coastline implies a stable coastline which is nonsensical. The time of Sweden’s Great Power Era was the one time of its massive invasion of Poland (shortly after 1612, as he fails to mention) - was when the formal coastline was very small, and there were other parts of it on the other hand that aren’t there. So making statements about this coastline and Sweden is nonsensical, as is either one of those two together with “always” because those are mutually exclusive periods And no it is not because of its treatment, it’s because “we” the person speaking are far away and don’t see it peeking through, so it’s out of their minds. Not part of the discourse
I have been in Poland 🇵🇱 many times as I have so much love for the country and the people! I can say by far Poland 🇵🇱 is the New Tiger 🐯 in Europe!
Visited Poland last summer and before that in 2016. What a difference. I mean, it was great even back then, but now - just wow. What a prosperous, powerful, beautiful country.
I was in Wrocław in the beginning of March, in 2024. That place is great!
We invite you again. 🙂
@@mrjetro it looks like I'll be coming to stay for a while and work. Excited, except for the wait on the relevant permits (lol)
No mossies helps
I've done a roadtrip to Wroclaw from Holland too, made great friends there, lovely people. Lots of Spanish students too kinda werid.
@@TokyoTaisu Why was it weird ? We got lots of foreigners here..
As an American, I would like to thank Poland, the Polish people, and agencies for supporting Ukraine. It is, of course, in your interest and that of the free world to do so, but I also think you have just collectively stepped up and taken on the tough task of assisting Ukrainian families as well as the effort to stop Psychopath putin's hideous war on humanity.
They indeed have. Millions of evacuees from Ukraine.
@@marieskavo7159tak mamy trochę ukraincow,..przed wojna też mielismy. Tylko mniej. Struktura się zmieniła teraz jest więcej kobiet ,dzieci i starszych. .wielu mężczyzn wróciło na ukraine... Duży odsetek ukraincow pracuje.
As polish I don’t support Ukraine and there corrupt government. People do need to get helped thou . But we shouldn’t forget about katyn massacre by the Ukrainian s . Ukrainian never existed was a satellite state create by Russia . After ww2 do Lwow polish city was taken . No Ukrainian will say that it was ever part of Poland . As polish person Gdańsk and Wrocław was German cities but Ukrainian s will not accept that lwow was polish city .
@@Bobbyrealtalk369 a z ciebie taki polak ja ze mnie arab
We are going to have a party like it’s 1610 again 🇵🇱💪
It's closer to 1918 I think. Old is dying, loose power to suffocate us, and we can grow.
@@ifyoudontfailyouarenoteven6210 indeed, all joking aside, its going to be like 1917/1918 in Russia - we know what followed this time - the horrors of communism
Or like it's September 11... 1683. =)
Say, say, 2000-24, party over
Russia, out of time
So tonight I'm gonna party like it's 16-09
Żadnych wojen...
I'm the descendant of Polish immigrants. I've never been more proud.......
4:17 It was six years later - in 1610 🙂. An not "held it for generation". It lasted 2 years, untill 1612 and Polish troops for most part were actually locked within borders of Kremlin.
There's a deeper historical context to what happend back there and it's more complex than just Polish troops present in Moscow.
Yess.
Full videos of country specific comments of recent times!
Smart!
Do you have the full Polish presentation or just the panel discussion and clips of it?
I've been looking for it for few weeks, still no luck. You find it at all?
First statement is wrong. The last biggest industrial rise happened just before regaining independence. Russia has imposed very high tax duty on imported fabrics from Germany. So what the German industrialists did? They moved their factories to Łódź which was a small village just behind the border. Łódź turned into industrial hub in no time. As the entire region was impoverished the effect was even more dramatic. Economic growth rate dwarfed UK or Germany as they were much ahead of Poland. Growth was so big that it impacted politics and both Imperial Russia and Germany started considering creating "independent but friendly only to them" Polish state. It turned out, Poland at that stage did not need foreign powers to help get to independence, it just need them to be exhausted after the war.
Thank you!
Was it Poland or the Grand Duchy of Lithuania that conquered Moscow? Of course there was what I've heard that they called "Nasze dwa domy" or the Commonwealth of Poland and Lithuania, so it might be difficult to untangle. Their winged hussars saved Germany and Austria from the Mongols and Ottomans, then they were rewarded by partitions. If Poles are suspicious of their neighbors, they have reasons.
It was Polish -Lithuanian commonwealth (so both- but Poland had leader role) in 1610.
Poland-Lithuania was a single state at the time, united by something like the 1707 Anglo-Scottish Act of Union, though about 150 years older.
@@sirrathersplendid4825 Wasn't it more like the "Personal Union" of England and Scotland that otherwise retained independent governments? As I understand it the relationship changed from time to time, as would likely happen if the Grand Duke of Lithuania became King of Poland or the King of Poland became Grand Duke.
@@JMM33RanMA It was a kind of personal union between 1385-1569. After 1569 this was basically one country.
@@JMM33RanMA - The Polish-Lithuanian personal union occurred in 1386 with the marriage of Grand Duke Jogaila-Jagiełło to the Polish monarch Jadwiga. The formal union was cemented, however, only with the Union of Lublin in 1569.
Wow man so great I just subscribed
Will you upload the full speech? That would be awesome
Yes I will
also known as motivation speaker
We love Poland and it's lovely people! I sail there. 🇸🇪
The Poles occupied Moscow in 1610 (not 1604)!
And they didn’t hold it for a generation but only for two years, until 1612 (though they continued to have a significant influence until 1613/14).
Who else can say that?
@@donaldclifford5763 - The Mongols smashed the place up a bit, albeit much earlier. Also Napoleon was there in 1812, but didn’t stay long.
Zeihan talks rubbish as usual. Poland has a larger military than UK, France and Germany combined. And then ? Occupieying Moscow ? Invading Germany ?
@@smftrsddvjiou6443 I particularly liked how he was making points about Russian and German demographics in relation to Poland - without even bothering to look at the Polish demographics for comparision.
@@sirrathersplendid4825napoleon nie zdobył stolicy. Tylko moskwe. Wtedy było to zupełnie beż sensu,zdobyć była stolicę.
Poland is Eastern Europes Celtic Tiger similar to Ireland in the early naughties . Unfortunately Peter is wrong about his pontificating around outcomes he claims are inevitable. I must say he’s fun to watch and is always entertaining.
Demographic situation of Poland is pretty bad. Peter Zeihan should have known that.
w Rosji za to rocznie sie rodzi 1miliard dzieci
Wonder what they cut at the end
Nice belt buckle
I can only believe his predictions are not as ridiculous as his tie is.
US naval power
Zeihan says we need at least 800 destroyers and frigates to support globalization, but that we have only 60. He says this is because our navy “retooled” after the cold war. At the post-war height of our naval power in 1987, we had 184 destroyers and frigates (Regan’s 600-ship Navy). Nothing like 800. By 1992, a year after the cold war, we had 207. Today, we have about 63 (this is the only place Zeihan has his numbers right).
The only time we had anywhere near the 800 Zeihan says we need for globalization was in 1945, at the end of WWII, when we had 738 destroyers and frigates (and a 6768-ship Navy). By the next year, in 1946, we had 180 destroyers and frigates, having “retooled” for peace time.
You are right about that. The "need" for the larger number of ships ignores several factors. First a US super carrier alone has about the same fire power as the entire French military, and its tech and planes control a larger area than a group of smaller vessels, and it is always accompanied by a strike force.
Second, the statement made by Zeihan appears to suppose total control at all times by a worldwide empire. Even at its imperial height Britain did not exercise such complete control over its quarter of the globe.
The US succeeded in the Barbary Wars not because it had total control, permanent presence and a huge navy, but because it had convinced the pirates that they could be attacked and seriously damaged if they continued.
When there are no other naval competitors (like after ww2), you can get away with decommissioning a majority of your ships. Not to mention, trade volume has only increased since then, so more ships to protect too. Sooo more ships to protect, and more possible foes to protect it from in recent times. But you are right in that it seems like peter pulled the 800 number out of his ass.
The navies contractor ship builders and repair yards....are a disaster. Plus we decided to cool it with our Arleigh Burke destroyers and do some "new" stuff that was untested..and didn't/ doesn't work. The Navy has thrown away tens of billions of dollars and is way behind in just about every category. I wish it wasn't so....but it is.
Yes, Poland is a historic regional power.
What presentation was that first clip?
Karol Gustav sad, that with his canons and polish hussars he could concur whole Europe
i tought it was Paulo Coelho
What an excellent presentation
Does the CIA give the President USA facts of this nature ?
What's with the tie?
No to teraz po tym wykładzie wszyscy będą nas kopać w dupę i jak zwykle mamy przerąbane bo wszystkie hieny po sąsiedzku się zlecą i nie tylko.
Why Poland have to pay 4% GDP to the military, when even Russia in war spend 6% ?
@@Upik_SG Dlatego, że Polska ma takie położenie geograficzne jakie ma i taką historię jaką ma.
@14:01 I want to put forward a hypothesis since Peter does not, if we seperate the real economy from the financial sector, and we concede that yes consumption and investment led growth falters, we still have a very large swath of capital and liquidity that has come about as the end result of all that growth. I therefore foresee that liquidity will move faster from the real economy into the financial sector to be deployed into yield, commodities and digital commodities like btc. Remember if the incentive to invest in the real economy is faltering, debasement and inflation are still very real issues. If the end goal is to try and accumulate assets by generating profits in the real economy, then we skip the profits part and go straight to the accumulation of assets part.
So many, I believe, wrongly conclude that low growth means a bearish equity or commodities or precious metals market, Im simply saying I believe the opposite will happen.
Full vid?
Uploaded now
My biggest criticism of Peter Zeihan's presentation is his tie. "Yeah, yeah....globalization, demographics, blah...blah...blah..." But holy shit Peter, you wore that tie in public!?
You should see his socks then 😂
I love that tie. But I'm Polish.
@@frusia123 You have my condolences....for loving the tie, not being Polish :)
@@evsal8087 😁😁😂
Zeihan is a quintessential Gen X'er. That sort of tie -any loud design really - is a badge of honor for them.
Love your work.
Lose that tie.
Poland has 38 million people and a GDP of $942 billion!
Not good result but tipical for post comunist countries. A lot of that GDP is generated by international corporations and transfered outside of Poland.
I think current Polish government should listen that sometimes
The biggest problem in Poland is that the country is heavly divided and if this will continue then in the next decade there might be a huge civil war.
🤣 Not a chance!
That tie hurts my eyes.
I do not agree with everything but definitely interesting perspective with several valid points
Well you need understand because babies and children don't generate economic data this kind of information will blind side you before realize what is happening. Remember when you have half empty cities that look like ghost town by then it's too late to do something about it.
We know what our aim is...
To suck European subsidies indefinitely?
@@alko_xoTo get to the point we'll no longer have to so we can help other countries get there too (economically speaking).
Also your remark is typical for US/western EU boomer but let's not forget that it was your generation that was supposed to prevent most of modern problems from ever appearing. Instead the lot of you bought as much land and/or real estate as possible and forced younger generations into loaning instead of having property. Hope you're proud of yourself.
Dlaczego tylko urwany kawałek?
That's the point of 700+ i guess?
(The mentioned PiS government paid out monthly 500, then 700 per child - families that felt encouraged with that may not always supply doctors, lawyers, scientists and engineers, but army recruits - quite likely)
@21:40 you say "if you look around the world right now, the middle east is the calmest part of it"? really?
Mr Zeihan has made a great transition from an expert in Global Demography, Warfare & Geo-Politics to Stand-Up Comedy...
That arabic nickname tells me all I need to know about your experise in geo-politics.
I would take his remarks about Poland with a grain of salt given he had polish audience. I know all too well what's our weakness.
Nice pics of the ships .. any graphs 📈 of USA dept? 😅
World reserve currency. US can fail up
Why did you cut out the end of the presentation and splice the beginning to the end? He was about to speak about the guns of Poland and it ends???
I thought the end was more interesting. It’s all there but you can see the uncut version in the panel discussion video.
Black swan event, that can render all geopolitical projections wrong is mass scale introduction of humanoid robots, it will create new economics it is new model, of course hand in hand with development of A.I.
You cannot change demographics you going have half empty cities. It be sort of creepy.
@@anadasingh3456 Traffic would be better though.
It's not a black swan event, it's already under way and inevitable.
Big cities will be fine. Unlikely that they need to remove renovated city blocks again, like they had to in some east german cities.
Guy is a hack with a self-absorbed presentation style. Couple of interesting points.
The guy who said Russia's oil infrastructure will collapse like after the Soviet Union collapse.
He is not wrong...
Did you think that was going to happen overnight? Geopolitics and strategy are not for simple minded.
In the 1990s, many Western companies invested in oil fields to reap profits. Then Putin came and nationalized these companies. Over time, oil reserves become depleted.
I heard that Russia wanted to extract oil fields on the Taymyr Peninsula. It's very far north.
The district in which this peninsula is located is over 2.5 of Poland. The population of this district is 34,000 people, of which 22,000 live in the capital (Dudinka).
Are you confident that they will be able to build mining and transport infrastructure to maintain production levels?
@xandr13
Apparently it is, if Mr. Zeihan can run his tongue like he does.
I have been following Peter for quite some time now. I am curious why the seems so dogged about not using Android (if Apple has such a horrible supply chain problem and is/was overprized as can be).
First guess would be that Android has a far worse reputation and history on security.
This video is cut up, edited, and contains content from other sources to make its own point, not the one Peter is presenting at this talk.
Those are bold claims by Peter, I’ll believe when I see it
This guy also tells people to hold dollars and not buy bitcoin…
Here it's been 3-8 through out national exisrence. If I recall right women avarage birth is 3.7 kids now
"Tends to get gobbled up easily " lmfao . Poland has won some of the most importend battle of European history but I'll take this clowns word for it
He said the same about Ukraine.
Szkoda tylko że twój angielski kuleje w porównaniu do naszych historycznych wygranych.
Zeihanism
A lot of people look down on ad hominem thinking. I don't. They reveal a lot about the meta-conversation-trends in what people are afraid of, etc. (not to mention current levels of education).
1:28 nowadays? that's ridiculous
@21:04 "That's Canada, so you know they're good for something"...........That's mean Peter.....badmouthing the best neighbors we've ever had
Sartorial elegance is not Zeihan's strongest ... suit.
Why will you never use Android? Respect from Australia
All this DEMGRAPHICS, yeah, but you don't mention (so I assume not account too) IMMIGRATION. USA without immigration wouldn't have good demographics either.
Has George Friedman possessed Peter’s body?
Numbers of people aren't really significant in this century when war is involved, as Ukraine has shown. They are outnumbered by 3 or 4 to 1 and numerically in tanks and aircraft far beyond that. Yet have destroyed Russia military capability by about 40% in 2 years. Yes, they have had a lot of weapons provided but in numbers of people it hasn't hurt them much.
Wars in the 21st century will be a lot different than the 20th.
Why would you put a person in a GERMAN WWII uniform (at 2:29) used now days for reconstructing battles and suggest that's a modern polish solder? Shame on you!
Sorry. I put in ‘poland military’ in the search bar and this came up. I’ll check more carefully in the future.
Oh God 🤦
I'm Polish from Poland and confused by these "theories", assumptions, false data etc. What is this, a comedy or Putin propaganda sponsored bullshit?
Może mu Putin zapłacił? 😂
The first Chinese carrier was a casino and the second was a copy of the casino. 🤣🤣🤣
Tough crowd haha
I don't get it. Why does he think that Poland will be happy with the mid sophistication tier productions?
The Austrian Empire asks, “what are we? Chopped liver?”
23:18 apple sucks lol Tim got blackmailed on the island and it has no security now lol😊
Poland will never be a superpower or an empire. We should stop behaving like it's something that should happen. Poland should be an average country, but good in its averageness. We should aim at having good life quality not some pipe dream of being an empire. Mam nadzieję, że Polacy to zrozumieją.
why? Because you said so?
No one is saying it needs to be an empire. It just needs to be solid and stable and free. And it is and it will be. (but if it wants to free Belarus....that's fine).
W tym miejscu to niemożliwe.
Musi być odpowiednia siła dla powstrzymania Azji i Germanii.
Wszystko co mniejsze jest wciąż atakowane.
Polacy nie potrzebują być Imperium chcą mieć możliwość żyć bezpiecznie
@@edytaeda107 tylko czasem nie ma innego wyboru by byc silny. Nie jestesmy Holandia czy Wielka Brytania by moc stac z boku
Polish problems come from the fact
that it never had the industrial
revolution. It was sponsored
by the governament beafore
and after llww.Its a commerce
and consumption oriented society.
Not mutch in terms of the modern
product design and production.
Looking outside my window in Łódź, I can tell you the industrial revolution definitely happened here. The same applies to the whole Gdańsk - Wrocław-Rzeszów triangle.
@@Pandzikizlasu80 Poland was
mainly agrocultural land beafore
llww . Industralizarion of Poland
was state sponsored . E. Kwiatkowski
(was a great pole and visionary)
did try to make Poland in to
industrial state.Was stoped by
Piłsudski who thought that
this plan was to centalized
and to soviet in its nature.
Read some of the Kwiatkowskis
opinions on this subject. He
lists the reasons why grassroots
industrial revolution is not
possibile in Poland . So, COP,
GDYNIA , PZL and so on
did happen but they were sponsored
from the top down. Just as it was
under communism after the war.
This is not how the changes in
SOCIAL makeup of societies
take place. Granted there were
some exeptions to that. URSUS,
CEGIELSKI and what you see
from your window.
But the problem is that is
quite narrow view.
@@piotr.leniec-lincow5209 What you see outside a window in Łódź is a damn million people 19th century industrial agglomeration, but I know, we are not true Poles. True Poles live only in your ancestors village.
Łódź was industralized not under the
Polish rule. Water mains , politechnik
and mutch more were build in Warsaw
under Moscow supervision.This are facts.
But this is not the point however.
You think you know more about
this topic than Kwiatkowski?
Think again.Let some hot air out.
Anyway , show me Polish consumer
industrial products made now or then.
Why Polish expositions at World Expos
display oscypeks and apples?
And please skipp sportowa syrenka
and scooter OSA.
Industrial relates to the factories
but the revolution part happens
inside poples minds.THIS
never happened in Poland.
And probably it is to late now.
@@piotr.leniec-lincow5209 The only thing Russians were doing in Łódź, was taking bribes and shooting to workers. The town was pointed out as suitable for development by local authorities, by Rajmund Rembieliński in 1821 under the Kingdom of Poland local law, not Russian. Development of economy was an act of opposition against the Empire, you can call it organic work, however this term was established decades later.
3:45 "We'll haeve the Poles being more and more and more agressive [...] and push into the former Russian space in order to break it."
(1) We, the Poles are not aggresive and we are not getting "more agressive". We just want to leave in pace, do our things within our borders and within EU. There's no talk, thought or need to go anywhere outside our own borders. "Aggressivenes zero!" 😉 - as one famous senctence from a Polish commedy tells.
(2) I'm not sure what territory do you mean by "Russian space", but if anything within current Russain borders than nobody in sound mind in Poland has any serious plans of attacking Russia. We may prepare for possible conflict but only as a defensive part of it.
Unless you meant a former Soviet USSR territory (?). Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Ukraine and Belarus (the last one with a caveat) are independent states, first 3 are NATO members - again: no need for us, the Poles to "push into" their territories.
Yes, Zeihan has never stopped referring to Ukraine and Belarus as Russian territories. This so-called expert is stuck in the 19th century, operates under the 19th century ideology, and has missed very real nation-building happening right under his nose.
Anyone with a weird neck tie has issues
Zeihan's wishful thinking towards Germany on full display!😅
Is there something wrong?
Right!? I mean, German manufacturing is already back on the upswing after the Ukraine invasion. Granted, there was a slump where German industry had to look for new energy sources. It has apparently found them. So I look at Peter Zeihan (and pundits like him), and it looks to me like they are confusing a temporary downturn for a permanent trend. As for demographics? The Germans currently have to beat off skilled immigrants with a stick and have had to do so for decades. I really don't see how they can fail to fill their workforce even with mediocre birthrates. I know the mythology of sudden collapse is real popular thanks to our ready consumption of doomsday apocalyptic movies and news, but it really doesn't look hold up on closer scrutiny. Frankly, I think the Germans will continue to be a manufacturing powerhouse in our lifetimes and any hiccup is an outlier.
@@donaldclifford5763 let's make it short: yes, all about Germany (and even Poland - a nation that has the same "trade role" than Austria and the Czech Republic: sell precursor to the German industry and not much more). Germany will sell goods to the world independent of US-China stress - at least if there aren't any better alternatives.
Poland btw has a real problem with xenophobia and not more kids than its neighbors combined with a much smaller salary - so everything Zeihan tells here about Poland is based on wet dreams. Germany at least can allure workers if they need them. Something Poland simply can't and so the future of the whole economy there is very limited.
Poland buying some weapons is understandable at the moment but will not change the possibilities for Poland in Europe (and the world) - their "strength" if we really want to use this word here depends on their US-puppet role and not much more.
@@andreasgregorfrank9057 wet german dreams :)
@@andreasgregorfrank9057you are so utterly ignorant of the world you live in that it is hard to believe that you are sincere
great social engineering, I must admit
Polska zbierze srogi wp dol za to pajacowanie na anglosaską nutę. W zasadzie to już sie rozpoczęło.
5:32 Peter in Poland is traying find partner to make 3 to 5 kids. lol. very stait forward. lol
Looks like Peter Zeihan has a large following in Poland. I find that difficult to comprehend. Most of the real experts in the wide range of topics this man brags about really can't take much of what he says seriously.
Przestańcie klepać nas po pleckach i wmawiać nam jacy jesteśmy cudowni. Zostawcie nas w spokoju, nie będziemy się bić dla waszych profitów. Get out of our land we do nor trust you!!!!
Sure. Do you want to get a trade blockade with that?
Geez Peter, you are going to get Putin even more paranoid 😅
Putin never seen something like this.
I hear a lot of fun ideas, but this russia vs poland fantasy only plays out if NATO Article 5 doesn't trigger a global thermonuclear war.
MORE AND MORE ....
PETER ...
.... YOUR SHIT IS GOING TO STICK ON A KREMLIN WALL‼️
😅
Poland was in Moscow for 1 year and Russia ruled Poland for 100s of years.
Poland has 38 million people and a GDP of $700 billion. Russia has a population of 143 million and a GDP of $1,500 billion.
940B GDP 💀💀🤡🤡
So... are we seeing the rise of Polish Militarism (based on bad experiences in the Second World War), like history saw the rise of Prussian Militarism (based on bad experiences in the Thirty Years' War)?
You are correct in the unknown analysis of the world's economic future. But, like most economists, you leave out the consideration of an overpopulated world and the natural environment's ability to provide the resources to feed this greater and greater number of people. So, the greatest question is, will the countries losing population be able to rethink their economies and rebuild an economy that is green and sustainable? Depopulation with a green and sustainable economy is the ultimate challenge for the world's future.
Food is not a problem at the moment. Currently, Polish (and indeed the whole of Eastern Europe) farmers are protesting because the EU has abolished customs duties for Ukraine and this has greatly disrupted the markets.
Poland alone exported food worth EUR 52 billion. Ukraine has much better soil conditions than Poland and better climatic conditions.
If there are four times as many people in the world, there will be enough food.
We have terrible demographics, our army is small in terms of people. Forget it. We now have our golden era - wyż demograficzny. From now we are on decline.
Yes, but the point is that all enemy powers around is collapsing. That why with an alliance with America, and Sweden, then Poland becomes the power in region. ✊
@@marctemura2017it was very funny comment. Very funny.
peter starts out the presentation by flattering his audience...bad peter
Doesn't Poland have a worse fertility rate, and therefore worse future demographics, than Germany?
Lots of migrants from our Eastern neighbors!
@@michaelmazowiecki9195but your Western borders are still open. And the quality of human rights… a bit better there.
@@alko_xo Poland simply does not want migrants from non-European cultures who refuse to integrate and accept European values, or worse still, attempt to impose their values and norms such as Sharia law on the host country. Poland has a small Muslim (Tatar) community going back over 600 years plus over 100k refugee migrants from Putin's Chechen war. It also has Georgian and Armenian communities as well as a large Vietnamese one.
@@michaelmazowiecki9195 I’m so exited that you feel free to write this in 2024 on CZcams. This is so amazing!
@@alko_xo welcome in Poland
peter wants you to believe you need to be taxed more to build navy ships so his investment in the military industrial complex will grow
What will the future look like?
AI driven robots.....
And no consumers with jobs money or numbers..
what is the cost to stop angin polish people ? max 5% od budget, simple math 400,000 deaths/per year - 300,000 born/per year = minus 100,000 / 3= 33,000 * 1 000 000= 33 000 000 000 PLN (its like 5% of budget) you do/buy flat and give it to 2+2 family from Brazil (many speak polish), from Uzbekistan - language similar etc, kids need to be lik few years old AND PROBLEM RESOLVED With LOW COST but to they want realy to resolve it ?
Can we get just the presentation instead of this weird clipped together amalgamation?
0:50 Well, recent history
Not “easily”, no.
The terrory was occupied in the Swedish deluge in the 17th century and in WWII. It was annexed by combined diplomacy and military moves before.
“The Swedes” no. Also “it’s” coastline implies a stable coastline which is nonsensical.
The time of Sweden’s Great Power Era was the one time of its massive invasion of Poland (shortly after 1612, as he fails to mention) - was when the formal coastline was very small, and there were other parts of it on the other hand that aren’t there. So making statements about this coastline and Sweden is nonsensical, as is either one of those two together with “always” because those are mutually exclusive periods
And no it is not because of its treatment, it’s because “we” the person speaking are far away and don’t see it peeking through, so it’s out of their minds. Not part of the discourse
A word of a comment: Poland has exactly same demographic problems as its surrounding countries
Ja right Poland Demographic is really bad.
This is a mash up and not a keynote speaker thing.
Not “conquered” Moscow, that’s a misunderstanding of the event
Also, “industrial” is somewhat of a misunderstanding for the time
A grown up child.