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Unemployment is about to explode. Fed will be forced to cut rates.
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- čas přidán 9. 07. 2024
- The unemployment rate in America has risen from 3.4% to 4.1%, with the raw number of unemployed Americans spiking over the last year. The net result is that the US economy is inching closer and closer to recession.
Historically - when the unemployment rate increases this much in a short period of time, it signals that the economy is building negative momentum that becomes self-reinforcing, and eventually results in a widespread recession.
This same increase in unemployment occurred in late 2007 and mid-2000 before the Great Financial Crisis and Dotcom Bubble Bursting.
Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve are closely monitoring these numbers. And they will likely cut interest rates at some point later this year to help the economy. The question is if it will be too little, too late.
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They're trying to make it seem like the increase in unemployment is small.
It's not. There's been a 14% surge in the raw number of unemployed Americans over the last year. Historically, when that threshold is breached, it means recession momentum becomes unstoppable. 1:16
Next 6 months will be very interesting.
Agree. This lying regime is horrible for America. The partisan nature of the country is killing every American.
The FED doesn't have to lower its fed fund rate and probably should not. Lowering the FED fund rates probably won't change the recession outcome much if at all, but more likely could spark more inflationary pressure. Stagflation is when the pricing mechanism stops working and economic activity slows to a crawl. Prices stick and without a price adjustment things stagnate for decades. Changing FED fund rates without demand for lending is a mute point. An exercise in futility.
🤣
It's a lagging indicator. Everyone who gets a severance will not show up in the data until they apply for benefits.
In phoenix apartment are cutting prices 30% since june
Crash fatigue is showing with most people. Most are so tired of hearing about the worse even though its true. We are being boiled slowly in the pot! I want to diversify my $80k portfolio.
I completely agree. It's not just about the dividends or profits, Diversifying a portfolio can be a smart move and i always advise one gets a professional to help out.
The issue is most people have the “I want to do it myself mentality” but not equipped for a crash that comes afterwards. Ideally, advisors are perfect reps for investing jobs and at first-hand experience, my portfolio has yielded over 300%, summing up nearly $1m, since covid outbreak to date
That's impressive! I could really use the expertise of this advisors because my portfolio has been down bad. Who is the person guiding you please?
‘’Vivian Jean Wilhelmy’’ is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find her webpage and necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
The Fed's talk of interest rate cut leaves me pondering what stocks to buy now and when do I sell? I'm unsure how to properly allocate my money to achieve an optimal portfolio in this present economy, my goal is $3m for retirement.
navigating market volatility can be challenging, it might be beneficial consulting with an advisor to provide personalized insights based on your specific situation and financial position
No doubt, getting proper financial advice is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and just yielded 120% from early last year. I and my advisor are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take another year.
I’ve been considering getting one, but haven't been proactive about it. Can you recommend your advisor? I could really use some assistance.
‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
The fact that there is already an excessive amount of demand awaiting its absorption, despite how everyone is frightened and calling the crash, is another reason why it is less likely to occur that way. 2008 saw no one, at least not the broad public, making this forecast, as I'll explain below. The ownership rate was noted to have peaked in 2004 in the other comment. Having previously peaked in the second quarter of 2020, we are currently at the median level. Between 2008 and 2012, it dropped by 3%, and by the second quarter of 2020, it had dropped from 68 to 65.
Real estate and stock investments may be good decisions, especially if you have a solid trading strategy that can see you through prosperous days.
You're not doing anything wrong; the problem is that you don't have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only highly qualified professionals who had to experience the 2008 financial crisis could hope to earn a high salary in these challenging conditions.
Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Jessica Lee Horst for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
I appreciate you sharing this. When I looked up the woman you named and read through her credentials, it was obvious that she was a complete professional. I just need her to respond to the message I wrote her.
I recognize the hardships that come with economic struggles like unemployment, job loss, inflation, housing market instability, political uncertainties, and the global impact of conflicts and wars. Making ends meet during such times can be incredibly challenging. To navigate this difficult period, considering alternative job prospects, enhancing skills through online courses, and expanding your network can heighten the chances of securing employment. Moreover, prudent budgeting, exploring available financial aid programs, and seeking assistance from community organizations can offer some relief. How are you currently tackling these challenges? Have you implemented any specific strategies to cope?
In my opinion, now is not the moment to rely on hearsay. Every individual, regardless of their level of experience as an investor OR in a financial market, requires guidance at some stage.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with “Jessica Lee Horst” for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
Thanks for sharing, I just liquidated some of my funds to invest in the stock market, I will need every help I can get.
I see the rising interest rate as a very big problem, as more investors will definitely pull out more money from the Stock market. This might have worked when I was still invest-ing with a couple thousand dollars, but it is more difficult now to decide whether to pull out more than $365k from my port-folio. I know some inves-tors still make that despite the strong bear market. In wish I could pull that feat
I think the whole thing about holding stocks for long term will always apply. So I think you should get a quality broker who is able to analyze and pick stocks that will do well in the long term, else you will be in a long bear ride.
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a broker, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst.
This sound interesting. I’m not really one to use pro analysts, but I guess it would not hurt to try one. My portfolio is in the red waters right now
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
I have an engineering degree and got layed off last year. Working 60 hours a week to earn 20% less doing warehouse jobs/ gig economy. Job data is a joke. No one is hiring
Come to Florida! Lots of openings in Water Resources!
Huge increases in part time jobs, that’s about it.
Keep it up ... cause surviving the longer long-haul will be all that matters. Remember this.
THERE ARE NO JOBS! Please - look at the job boards - there are less than half of what their were! LESS THAN HALF!!!!! Please watch this - I feel like I am the only one seeing this - please, don't listen to data, believe your own eyes!! You can do it - take back your power!
If this administration says anything you know it is a lie.
It's already a quiet depression. So many people with blinders on.
💯
I just went to look at some homes near a lake in SC. Not on the lake...near it. 3200 sq ft new construction builds going for $600,000+. Same house pre-COVID would have been around $400,000. Asinine.
Quiet depression or whatever you want to call it...people are still buying stuff, in large numbers. At least in SC. Like nothing is concerning.
You are incorrect. They’ll hyper-inflate the dollar before we ever raise rates anymore more. It’s why they stopped at the number they did. They’d break the system going any higher.
@@JRGUSC A majority are financing stuff, not buying.
not yet........the next scamdemic will cause the next depression
Laid off Senior Software Engineer. Most jobs receive several hundred, if not thousands, of applications. The job market is broken.
Same boat. Definitely agree.
Hey, me too, senior software engineer! Got laid off in September, been nothing but junk out there and now there isn't even junk 😂
My tech buddies are either laid off or their company is laying off.
💯
Experienced RN here laid off in 2011, took 11 months to find another RN job, and only because my friend knew the Manager. Hundreds of RNs applying for 1 job at that time as well. Hoping you all get a break soon.
Yeah it's tough competition
Then there are people like my husband and I that don’t qualify for unemployment and aren’t counted. He has an interview today, first in 7 months.
You don’t have to receive unemployment to be counted.
@@AJourneyOfYourSoul do they still count them if they don't apply for unemployment? Because if someone knows they don't qualify for unemployment, I doubt they would waste time to report/apply for it.
@@bestly802unless you are part of the BLS survey, you personally are not counted. They actually call the participants of the survey to find their employment status on a regular basis. Survey consists of 60,000 households nationwide.
Wishing him lots of luck and landing something good 🍀🍀🍀
@@bestly802 The unemployment figure is determined by a survey. They randomly call households/people and have a list of questions they ask.
If someone is out of work, but currently looking for work, they are considered unemployed.
As long as the sample size is large enough, they get a pretty good picture of what is happening in society.
In order for it to be more accurate, they probably sample by different areas in the country to get an overall unemployment picture.
Don’t be fooled stocks are not the economy, I had 250k put aside waiting for the fed to stop raising rates. Now I want to get back into the markets, but the hike might continue and stocks will still climb, I’m confused on how to strategise and happy to discuss.
The stock market will go down further and goodluck on the fed pausing rate hikes w/ all the hawkishness that has failed to keep up with inflation.
If the unemployment rate is able to remain steady while the Fed hikes and inflation falls back to target, a soft landing might be on the table
Don’t expect a soft landing. We know inflation still far from its 2% destination - the FOMC didn’t raise rates now, we can never fortell their moves these days
Fixed income Tbills and bonds may work for you while you try to figure out the next entry point for stocks
I agree It’s always good to have a balanced fin-plan. I work with a professional planner multi mrkt and fixed-income strategist in NY. the fixed income portion of your portfolio won’t simply serve as a buffer to the volatility of the equity portion of your portfolio, but will provide legitimate income.
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
True, I’m quite lucky exposed to personal finance at early age, started full time job 19, purchased first home 28, got laid-off work at 36 amid covid-outbreak, and at once consulted a well-qualified advisor to stay afloat. Thankfully, my portfolio has maintained steady growth ever since, amassing nearly $1m after subsequent investments to date.
Thanks for this. could easily spot her website just after inputting her full name on my browser. she replied my inquiry and we scheduled a consulting session sometime tomorrow.
I've shuffled through investment coaches and yes, they can be positively impactful to an individual's portfolio, but do your due diligence to find a coach with grit, one that withstood the 08' crash. For me, Jane Nina Pickett turned out to be better and smarter than all the advisors I ever worked with till date, I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction.
Since January 2024 I have applied to over 200 listings and I've only had one interview.... and that's with several years of experience in the industry AND while being employed.
What sector(s) and position(s)?
I think the field you're in and where you live impact that as well. I've applied for jobs in the last 2 years and I've gotten three jobs. I just recently started a new job and I love it.
@@bobnas She will not answer. Lies.
@user-dn5ud1cr3b chill. Like I said I'm still employed so I don't sit by my phone all day 😂. I'm in ca bay area and I'm in the biotech/pharma/research industry.
@bobnas I'm in ca bay area and I'm in the biotech/pharma/research industry.
The Fed should be raising rates until the price of real estate and automobiles are cut at least 60%. Low rates are what got us here.
More than a decade of lose money policy, and money printing. Agreed.
But instead, they're on the cusp of starting to lower the FFR. I firmly believe that the first two 25-BP drops will lead to a 100 BP reduction in the 30YFRM. When it falls below 6%, new home prices are going to follow existing home prices & start to rise again.
Then my savings will be getting extra interest …. I agree 👍👍
No need to increase or cut rates, just cut all credit (money supply), inflation will die overnight and everything will become undervalued !! But guess what, they wont do it, because their goal is to always keep inflation alive !!!
They may have to lower the FFR or the government may have to "print" or whip up outta thin air so much extra money to pay the debt/deficit and pay for everything else around the world - which will cause even more inflation because of so much money printing 🤣
I was part of the recent layoffs at twitter and this bites hard. Grateful that I kept some savings about 600k tho! Now I am looking for ways to invest this into the stock market to generate good dividends to supplement for my monthly expenses.
you need a certified financial planner straight up! personally, I invest in ETF's and also love investing in individual stocks. yes it’s riskier but am comfortable in my financial environment
Agreed, After taking charge of my portfolio in early 2017, i stumbled into losses. Upon realizing that a change was necessary, I consulted a fiduciary advisor in 2020 and since then my $1.2m portfolio has gained 28% annually through restructuring and diversification using dividend equities, ETFs, mutual funds, and REITs.
great gains there! mind sharing details of your advisor pleas? i've started gaining more cash flow with my employment and looking at putting money into stocks and alternative assets that can help build wealth over time
Annette Christine Conte is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for sharing, I must say, She appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive.
I am a HVAC journeyman. I work on all kinds of boilers, furnaces, ACs, heat pumps, appliances, etc. Basically anything that deals with cooling or heating or some kind of plumbing or mechanical system, I work on it.
I easily walk into 3 to 7 homes everyday.
Something i have increasingly notcied in the last 6 months is how many people that call me who are not working. Everyday I have at least 1 household I walk into and they are not currently working due to recent job loss or something else.
Its crazy to me that so many people are out of work. Concerning to say the least, especially because it will ultimately the entire economy along with my business if people by in large can't pay for my services.
In my city suddenly lots of residential listings, most on market for months and all with price drops. Had a nasty feel to it.
and the Govt says the economy is fine - all lies
@@lazydayB2B I charge what's appropriate for the value I bring. My average call to come out is 59$. Average range of repairs hover between 400$ to 1100$. But it depends on what I'm working on. AC's have become much more expensive recently due to supply constraints and increased government regulations both federal and state.
yep, it's a vicious cycle. it can get out of hand fast.
@@mr.frandy7692 indeed
Jerome said a year ago people would lose their jobs in the effort to get to 2%. He made good on his promise.
There was also no recession from Covid, it’s about to be 5 years now since all those stimulus checks …. Soft landing and recession was avoided
He also said young people need a housing "reset". It will happen.
True. He did say there will be a lot of “pain”. He also sort of hesitated when he said it.
Threat, not promise.
That's a strong economy you losing your job!
The fed is caught between a rock and a hard place. This is going to be Epic
Fed painted itself into a corner!
@@tracybondelier2672Printed
Good grief, the longer they delay this much needed economic collapse, the worse it's going to be.
So many zombie businesses need to fail.
Glad I was able to get a little bit of silver. Gold is too expensive for me to get in to 😢.
Not the fed, the fed knew what would happen and knows what is going to happen. At this point all they are doing is keeping people from panicking.
The Fed put themselves into that place by inflating asset prices to many times real value.
The company my lady is working at started layoffs yesterday ....
Everyone is scared
You should lay the owner off...
Yeah... houses doubling in price these last 2 to 3 years is ABSOLUTE INSANITY😂😂
Canada says: "Think doubling is insane? Hold my beer!"
Which means it is in a massive bubble. Bubbles pop.
Why have we normalized them lying to us about the numbers?
Hey, you're the ones who sit in front of their tv every day.
@@gregorysagegreene I don't watch any of it. It's mostly lies and deception.
Because it's been going on for so long that most people think it's normal.
Half the population at any given time pushes the lies for political partisan reasons.
I haven't .. i am shorting into this blow off top.
Been in a recession!! Millions asleep!
Most Americans are clueless and that’s why they in debt up to their eyeballs. The coming train wreck will make the Great Depression look like a speed bump. When that much stupid hits reality head on it will be absolute madness.
we've been in a recession since 2018'
Yes, first was printing and lowering,than printing moooore, now is overcorrecting and ship is going down...
Thats what Ive been screaming!
I believe the covid bullshit was really to disquise how fucked everything is/was/will continue to be.
They have been ignoring the signs. I am middle income and have been insulating my self for years. We will go into a depression this year. People are about to get hurt.
This is what I laugh at, even if they cut rates, rates wont go down because nobody will buy our debts at lower rates
Exactly. The FED will have to go insane with QE again to drive bond yields down.. but if there is 4% inflation and the 10 year is paying 1.5% who buys that guaranteed loss? Only the FED and their money printer. So the FED can successfully drive down yields if they want but the unavoidable consequences is inflation. Not only will FED printing cause inflation but a broken bond market means all those billions of investment dollars find alternatives.
We'll have 4% 10year with flat inflation. It'll get ugly.
@@crowbird213 I'm worried the stock market will "melt up" because I've been selling into cash/5% money market in prep for a crash downwards
correct, we are done and I have to blame the voters and the NON voters, we vote horribly, short term mindset and greed, what about me verses what about the long term health of the country, they have been screwing us and giving us candy for 40 years, they are out of candy!!! this one is going to hurt bad like a rotten tootth
@@Ayo-hf9xd with real rates even higher, stocks will not be appealing.
Florida is no surprise. I lived there from 03-09. Jobs don’t pay and still don’t. Influx of new people just drove up the cost of living.
And they raised minimum wage so now all the people are poor so everyone can bid against the local burger king worker to buy a house. A BK worker who will bid up the price of a house with no idea or concern for how much it will actually cost
@@papapickett7267 making $15 an hour isn't going to put any fast food worker in the position to be in a bidding war when a starter house costs $400,000k. Please say things that make sense instead of hyperbolic bullshit.
@@papapickett7267perhaps don’t print money to give poor ppl free money, welfare, shutting down the country for a year, bring in millions of illegals, print money on multiple wars that failed. The fed only option is to let ppl suffer and raise interest rates.
@@ANonymous-gw2cs “Think of how stupid the average person is and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
George Carlin
Right to work state like AZ. These states always take the worst hair cut in down turns.
So true. The mortgage rates don’t bother me, the overly inflated prices do. And so many people refuse to sell without capturing a huge profit. Good luck.
Their will is being broken as we speak. Most sellers can’t afford to sit on a listing indefinitely to fulfill some price fantasy. Another 6 months and the reality will have set in for most of them. Price corrections are already occurring in many markets. The Fed just needs to stay the course
It's like taking cold medicine before getting a cold. That's why USA has a run away inflation. This inflation is worse than any I have seen in the past 42 years. A 20 lbs bag of Rico Rice was selling for $10.88 in 2022, $12.98 in 2023, is now selling for $18.32. Your $10 an hour wage hasn't risen to $18 an hour. It's still at $10 an hour, but your food has risen 60% in 2 years.
Yep, it's the biggest wage compression in history.
Yep the people saying the 1970s were harder aren't paying attention. Wages were a lot stronger in the 70s.
I laugh at govt stats saying food has only risen 30% in the last 3-4 years. Data manipulation at its finest. Steak is 100% higher, snacks for my kids' lunches have risen more than that. What hasn't risen much? Booze. Oh great. I expect alcoholism will jump in the next couple of years, and deaths of despair will go back to pandemic era levels.
@@EvilMonkey7818 Its cheaper to just drink IPA than it is soda or juice or anything else. Reminds me of the medieval ages.
Thank you for your honesty and transparency. It's refreshing to see someone acknowledging the harsh reality of rising prices, which are leaving many of us feeling battered and bruised.While I'm grateful to be in a position to absorb these costs, my heart goes out to those who are struggling to make ends meet and can't afford their basic necessities. made $38k from my little invested $11k regardless of how bad it gets on the economy.
This inflation has taught people the importance of multiples income investment helps alots..
This inflation has taught people the importance of multiples income investment helps alots..
she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name
Roxanne Emmett
Everyone needs more than their salary to be financially stable. Investing it with a reliable source is the best
Yeah and adding 13 million more people in the US isn't going to help the situation
Idk if that has any ties to inflation. The labor market in skilled and unskilled labor is still not seen much difference in increased wages. Unless you want to work at FamilyDollar for $7.25/hr and live in perpetual poverty/debt, then yeah, the migrants are taking our jobs.
Dishwasher, housekeepers and farm workers better watch out!😂🙄😂
@@FadeHook23Migrants take more than minimum wage jobs. The fact that you think that is just racist as hell. The reason the border is open is to make as many people as poor and dependent on government as possible.
It’s an easy fix. Just push legislation that gives a path to citizenship by becoming a non union teacher or non union govt employee. Think of the savings! And they wouldn’t want to become a bigot and oppose the ending of this shameful oppression 😂.
@@FadeHook23respectfully, this has been going on since Reagan. Meat packing, roofing, siding, framing, dry walling, ag workers, landscaping…
We owe most of the 34 trillion TO THE FED, people need to do their research on the federal reserve and how it came to be. The fed is NOT a part of the government, it’s a private bank. Our government doesn’t print money, the fed is in charge of that too and then loans it to the government with interest. That interest makes up the majority of our debt. Please wake up America, look it up!
who is behind the FED? and the central banks all over the world? The same people who run the media, Hollywood and the music industry.
Yep, we should just not pay it. Cut it out of the debt and get rid of it if we can.
Woodrow Wilson: “Since I entered politics, I have chiefly had men's views confided to me privately. Some of the biggest men in the United States, in the field of commerce and manufacture, are afraid of something. They know that there is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive, that they better not speak above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it.”
Yeah but our government asks for that money from the Feds to spend on everything and anyone but its own citizens
You are right.
I have seen a few videos explaining the fed and it's unscrupulous methods.
I need a way to draw up a plan to set up for retirement while still earning passive income to meet my day to day need and also get charged lesser taxes even while in a higher tax bracket. i want to invest around $250K savings.
Diversify your holdings across several asset types to reduce risk rather than putting all of your eggs in one basket. If you don't know a lot about finances, speak with a financial expert.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial with an Experts guidance. I have 850k in equity, 300K cash earning 5.25 interest, 685k in 401k, 250k cash account, 120k in car assets ( paid off cars) Gold and silver bars. age is 48. My advisor helped me realign my portfolio to my risk tolerance and it boomed overtime.
pls how can I reach this expert, I need someone to help me manage my portfolio
Amber Dawn Brummit is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
Don’t expect truth in an election year, from an Administration that’s losing.
BribeEm already said the “Economy is strong as hell”….
This is a FACT!
Like you could expect truth from the other administration.. lol
@@6ChickenNugget9at least people aren't nearly suffering as much as this one. Lol.
@@6ChickenNugget9 the other administration didn't have anything to lie about in regards to the economy in the first place
Due to high inflation, people will feel like they are in a depression, whether employed or unemployed
Agree completely
Now I've been stacking gold for years I'll be fine
@cultleader3572 some people are going to get rich during inflation. Diversify gold is going to 4.8k an oz
@@MCthespeaker u won't get rich it keeps with inflation . Everyone else just gets much much poorer.
@cultleader3572 some people will hyperinflation isn't going anywhere. The government will continue to print money. What people do in next 5 yrs is important
Maybe I'm naive, but 2 rate cuts aren't going to change 99.99999% of potential homebuyer's minds. It's all about the price tag
People look at the monthly payment. If a 2% reduction in mortgage rates means $200 less a month and can fit within the buyers budget...they'll buy.
i'll take a lower price tag over lower interest rates anyday..... i'll take 13% or 14% if the house price is $50K -$80K like back in the 80s & 90s
I am in Florida and lost my job 9 months ago and struggling financially.
We in a recession here. We will come out of it first, too.
My advice is anywhere you can find a high field, not far from a walmart.
Prayers for you my friend.
@@michaelbrower5042 thank you so much. I appreciate it . I feel as though I do not count on life. I appreciate the prayers
Unemployment is the #1 indicator of downward housing prices.
Unemployment is still near historic lows.
@@thejuicerr which is why the Schiller Curve is still going up !!
And you think the official unemployment number is anywhere near accurate? It's a manipulated statistic. Watch my comment get auto deleted by youtube
Not anymore .... Most homes are bought by investors now
@@shawnPATSFAN About 1/3 of homes are purchased by investors
That's on top of most new jobs being part time and/or min wage.
Or internal jobs that should be illegal to post publicly!!!
@@stown308 It's always been a shady practice, but you can't regulate that. Companies can always say they posted publicly to keep their options open and you can't prove them wrong.
It's not just people who can't find a job. But also people who lose their job and take a massive pay cut to just take any job available.
Exactly what we need !!!! A fast food worker should not be getting paid 20 dollars an hour. Those jobs were never meant to sustain a household. Let's get real. All prices for everything needs to come down.
@@bpb5541 if those jobs dont give a livable wage then no one would take them. do you want your order to be taken/made by robots? stop saying those jobs dont deserve a livable wage when they do. also its not about increasing wages, its about making living cost less thats what the issue is. wages wouldnt need to go up if everything wasnt getting more damn expensive.
@@juancastaneda4923 no they do not. Fast food jobs were never designed to be a livable wage. They were jobs for teenagers and folks need a little extra money. A fast food job should not pay what a skilled job does PERIOD. But somehow we got here thinking it does. Which is why a Big Mac cost $8 and now people have stopped going there. Which is called price rejection so the McDonalds stores have two choices. They can cut employees or they can lower prices to get folks to come back and maintain their margin. If not the margins shrink.. corporate McDonald's still gets there money because they are a real estate company not a fast food company regardless of what people think.. so they are gonna get their rent. And of course i don't want a robot to serve me. I think these jobs have their place just not for someone to live off of. Choices are choices and hard work is hard work. A plumber makes a much as a doctor.. both take work and training and sacrifice. But let me ask you this how much longer do you think fast food jobs are going to be around? My McDonald's has shrunk in employees by half in just the last 5 years. There are now kiosks that are in the lobby. Only people in there are drive thru, and the cooks. That will soon be animated too. You will have all fast food restaurants being run by 1 or 2 people max. Just like going into most stores and seeing only on cashier. This low skilled, low paying jobs are dying. Why? Because folks got greedy think a low skill job deserves to be high paying... so it force buisness owners to cut them out to maintain margin. Now if folks in low paying jobs would have been happy with 12 or 15 dollars an hour they would be forced out. In CA they are getting 20 plus. So one of the most expensive thing a McDonalds franchise owner has. I told my wife that once CA fast food wages went over $20 a hour we would see massive fast food restaurants going out of buisness. Which is exactly what happening and it will only get worse. Soon there will only be a few left to go to.. those will be the ones that are the most automated. And the more that go under the fewer jobs there are going to be. It is a self licking ice cream cone and for low skilled workers it is only going to get worse. And it is heart breaking. Folks need to be very careful what they wish for. Better to have a $15 an hour fast food job than no job at all. But this just does not apply to fast food it applies to many many low skilled jobs. Ai and automation is coming for people and they have no idea. Throw infaltion in there and we have the perfect storm for massive unemployment. It scares me to think about. And 5 years from now America looks very different.
A lot of people depend on fast food. Not everyone is a skinny, healthy, good choice maker, you have to remember that, a lot of people are obese or infirm and are sustaining themselves off fast food. A lot of single moms with kids out there, feeding their kids with it.
I noticed that many companies are posting ghost job postings! I keep seeing the number of applicants, and then the companies repost the same job position and start again. I hope they can make these illegal postings stop because they are wasting applicants' time!
They do it to fool investors into thinking the company is growing. They've been doing it for a long time and yes, it should be illegal.
You have a point. Companies want to assure investors and current employees in the short term that things are ok with ghost job postings. But they're letting former positions sit empty.
have an uncle who works for a subsidiary of coca cola.. i had interest in the job so i applied well over a month ago, heard nothing back. attempted to get in contact with recruiting multiple times and they wouldn’t even pick up the phone! i’d get placed on hold until i get hung up on every single time. while searching for other jobs i’ve noticed this job listing is posted almost weekly since then.. had never heard of the ghost listings until now, makes sense
Zero job growth in ft jobs. Millions of pt jobs created. Zero jobs to natural born Americans. Real unemployment number is around 20 pct. We have been in a depression since 2019
@@matthewbrandley9027 😂😂🙄😂😂
@@Pepperboy555 prove me wrong
@@matthewbrandley9027 move to Arizona, lowest unemployment rate in decades with rising wages. Just because you lack skills, education and or training don’t be blaming anyone else.
Unless you’re a dishwasher, housekeeper or day laborer, in that case you’re absolutely correct.
@Pepperboy555 only fools believe the unemployment numbers which are rising and are actually around 20 pct
Why is anyone surprised? Jerome said unemployment needs to go up in order for there to be a rate cut
I hope they don't cut rates, cheap money literally got us here.
Maybe banks and corporations should cut back on starbucks and avocado toast.
Unemployment is the main reason for the downward trend in the housing sector. Precise information!! ❤ . From $10K to $45K that's the minimum range of profit return every week I thinks it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.
Most people don't understand the concept of "buying the dip" buying the dip is all about buying digital assets when their prices are down and selling off when the price rises.
GREAT video! You are the best RE analyst ever. I was a RE broker in Cali during the 1991-1994 crash and a licensed banker at Chase and Wells Fargo in Texas from 2007-2015 crash. Right on !
Where i live, we went from 50 or so listings for homes to over 300 overnight. My realtor told me that a ton of people have run out of all options and are going to be forced to sell at a loss....
What loss? The average length of home ownership is 8 years. Only 15-20% of homeowners have lived in their home less than 5 years. Everyone else is sitting on huge amounts of equity.
Sure, they may not get the peak price, but they're not selling at a loss.
Unemployment may be worse that we think this time as a lot of companies today hire contractors which can be fired without any notice or reporting. All the H1 people out there could be having to leave the country and no one is reporting on that
I don't have a problem with the latter.
Most states have employment at will laws so it’s across the board. There’s no job security for anyone.
facts
Numbers have been cooked for at least 18 months.
Oh they already kicked out hundreds of thousands of indians like a year ago from tech. Did we forget that already?
Dont you mean that a Depression is coming? We have been in a recession for two years.
The names will only stick,
once *they* admit it.
This!
The gov should have never meddled with the interest rates. They say a fever is good for the body in order for it to recover on its own and same goes for this economy. If you artificially lower the interest rates, why not just print another 10 trillion dollars and distribute the cash with military helicopters while you're at it.
What makes you think anything is real????? Artificially??? It is all artificial!!
the public would still somehow blame "supply chains and corporate greed" for the rising prices
@@Ayo-hf9xdI mean that’s still present. They just don’t know how to differentiate in the era of misinformation
Unemployment figures are based on people who are actively looking for work. If you count the millions who have given up and quit looking, the number is huge. Many points higher than what they report.
Unemployment figures are based on people currently receiving unemployment check. That's the way i understood
@@amunderdog and depending on the state, they only receive it until the $ runs out. Then they drop off the count even if they're still looking for work. Also those who do not qualify for unemployment benefits aren't counted either.
@@amunderdog "The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics uses the Current Population Survey to estimate the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate takes into consideration only those in the labor force; those working or those not working but actively looking for a job. Many critics believe this underestimates the true unemployment rate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has six different unemployment rates to take into consideration the varying degrees of unemployment."
Unemployment is way higher than whatever they're trying to make it out to be. Not to mention these little gig work delivery jobs aren't employment lol.
It’s depressing the fed hasn’t raised the FOMC rate to 6-7% and crushed inflation. We need massive unemployment, bankruptcies, foreclosures, extreme hardships to get rid of inflation and get the country back in a better spot.
Never wish for what you will get anyway.
I like it better now! Inflation is just the cost of doing business!
@@jimgoodreau1245derp
You first
😂😂
@@jimgoodreau1245 are you in sales?
Fed drops rates, we will see a massive depression. Inflation will skyrocket. Lets hope for a good news , how can one diversify $80k portfolio in this current state of the market
The Fed is already lowering the rates by buying all the debt in the market. so i suggest you get a financial expert for your portflio in this state of time , for a successful trading .
Agreed, I’ve been investing in the market for 11 years now, last 4 years with the help of a fiduciary advisor apparently due to the covid-19 pandemic crash. Throughout these years of guidance, I've been fortunate enough to 10x my return as a DIY investor, summing up nearly $1m ROI as of today.
I've been looking to get one, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your advisor? I'll be happy to use some help
Melissa Marie Colby is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment
I just looked up your coach and she seems very rich. Need to change the trajectory of my finances, will definitely work with her
The public has been concerned about poor economic conditions,, Our government has no idea how we Americans are feeling, we individuals are fed up with this treasonous administration.I feel for people with disabilities for not getting the help they deserve! I appreciate Laura Ferguson!...imagine l invested $2000 and received $6,500 in 4days.
Considering the economic situation I ask,?? How can we save our families and friends from financial slavery. It's getting more scarry,how can we generate more revenue? We cannot afford to see our people's savings crumble into dust.
I always wanted to trade for a long time but the volatility price has been confusing.
Wow. You know Laura Ferguson too? I thought I'm the only one she has helped work through the fears and falls of the forest. Her training last week was amazing and the strategy she applied were mind blown .
That woman totally changed my life for good. I have come across individuals but non is as honest as she is. So surprise you know her too.
Is there anywhere I can get across this woman for a startup???
The FED is already WAY LATE. But they want a crash, so not really.
Agree but Powell does not want what happened in the 70s when they cut too soon and then inflation raged and they had to be even more aggressive which mad the recession much worse than it should have been. And I also think the FED is always late.. both in raising and cutting. What we really need is no FED at all just let free markets figure out what true price is. But there is no easy money for the rich in that.
I wish the FED would increase rates to 18% to make this crash happen faster, we desperately need it.
Decreasing it would be catastrophic, nothing is affordable, it’s just the rich getting richer.
The rich getting richer is Bidenomics in a nutshell.
@@SSHitMan No it’s not!!!! It would be even worse under trump! The guy that removed restrictions for investor to take over the housing market and he’s the one that gives massive tax cuts to corporations. I will never vote for Trump! 👎
@@SSHitMan The rich always get richer, regardless of president.
@@SomeUserNameBlahBlah Biden's policies are disastrous for the working and middle class and great for the wealthy. Real wages have gone down under Biden even as the cost of food and housing has gone up.
@@SSHitMan no, it's capitalism in a nutshell.
I was on a 6month contract for mckesson. Worked there 1yr9m and was just fired for getting sick and missing 3 days (contracts don't get sick hrs)
Instantly approved for unemployment and I've been on it since... Been a lil over 2 months. Luckily I was saving the whole 1yr 9m so I had over half a yr in rent. Still have some and my investments. It's running out though
Garden Variety Recessions, lasting only 6 months, have been a myth since the 90's.
Cut costs, get some form of interim income.
Politicians are out of touch. I am unemployed and the way the job market has treated me is ridiculous. I'm done trying. I am college educated, I have a certification, I have years of experience and I'm no longer interested in looking. I worked my entire adult life for this ? Trash.
This is what I've noticed through the last few years. People over paid for housing (Date the rate but marry the house) Problem, Your house won't be worth what you owe on it so no refinancing it. Americans credit card debt is the highest its ever been. This leads to lower credit scores and inability to refinance if you wanted to. Last it's hard to refinance or purchase on part time employment, which seems to be apparent when over 600K full times jobs have been lost and maybe half of that has been replaced by part time work, then take 60% of that and its government jobs. The free market is crumbling, and its worse than I've seen sense the 70's and yes I was employed back then. All of these "recessions" fall on the shoulders of either the fed or the government spending/ policies. So explain to me how "team" politics worked out? We have a government who wizzes all over the constitution as well as the judicial department. Criminals are victims and victims are now criminals for defending themselves or their property. Welcome to the new America folks.
Fed cant' cut rates. Inflation is sticky. I'm afraid I have to disagree with you here pal. Your real estate insights are good, but Fed strategy is purposely causing unemeployment. It's the desired outcome of their policies. No cuts this year. The betting market bet on 7 cuts this year. They were pretty wrong. Inflation is off the rails. A rate cut exacerbates that problem. They CAN'T cut.
Fed drops rates, we will see a massive depression. Inflation will skyrocket.
Yup! Today's situation is the PERFECT example of stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Exactly. That's what will happen when the economy is not organically better.
When you drop rates, you will end up being able to have inflation skyrocket
And if inflation skyrockets so will bond yields.. which will make banks holding 0.5% bond garbage insolvent.
@@jonathantaylor6926 I regret not putting money in the markets in 2022
You can not rely on this administrations numbers on ANYTHING ....
The FED should keep rising rates not cutting !!! That's the only way how to cut the fucking greed !
I’m sorry, but you’re not the brightest
You have it backwards, currently only the wealthy and well off can get a loan... the rich are the very embodiment of greed, they make record profits while paying out next to nothing in wages. I'm all for down with the rich, in the past we were told to eat cake when the wealthy had ruined the people's economy and having lavish parties while we starved... we know how that went, and yet they tell us in this age to go eat cereal... I've got my pitchfork ready, just need more to join my "crazy"
@nicholas19karif they cut rates well get inflation surging and still no growth, it's fucked either way
The higher rates are making the rich richer from bond interest income, and they typically spend it since they're already rich. Inflation is killing the poor and anyone who doesn't have investment assets. The investor class + non-investor class willing to go into debt are keeping the economy going, but it won't last forever.
Oh but if the money-changers would just cut themselves.
The Fed always does too little too late…
VA I have worked at for 10 years has been on a "hiring freeze" since beginning of 2024. Nobody is getting hired unless absolutely necessary. People in general don't ask questions as to what is driving this freeze. Very similar to the covid stuff
I trust Nick before I trust the mainstream news 🙏🏼
Lol why would you trust some youtuber who obviously has his own narrative to sell you
I trust Juicie Smoolet as much as the main stream media.
@@MerpDerp-hz9ttYou don't think there mainstream media has their own narrative? They have their pockets lined from corporations for years. I would rather trust a more "boots on the ground" CZcamsr that travels the country, talks to locals, and analyzes data.
@@mikejones-777 i never said they didn’t have their own agenda. But clearly this youtuber does as well. You’re incredibly naive if you think otherwise
@@MerpDerp-hz9ttAll I'm saying is that we live in a time of misinformation so I'd rather trust someone who isn't influenced directly by corporations. Since you have to trust information coming from somewhere, I'd rather trust him.
Thank you so much for keeping us posted!
I wouldn't say we've been waiting for it. We've been expecting it.
Nick, You're Awsome as Always!!! Thanks for the verification of what I have thought all along...
even this guy - as good as he is - lives in a bubble
70% of Americans - have been in a DEPRESSION since 2008
Construction industry has taken a beating last 2 months
How can rates be cut during inflation?
When you’re trying to create massive inflation beyond the massive inflation that you created in the first place.
You've been saying this a lot, a broken clock is right twice a day?
Going on 4 years…
I own a laundromat/dry cleaner. I take credit cards and cash. In the last two years, credit card usage went from 40% to almost 70%. Laundromats are the canary in a coal mine.
Friend has been out of work for over a year. Graduate degree, former CMO/Sales Director.
The folks clowning on Nick for "stocks being at all-time-highs" should really understand that the mere threat of a potential future unemployment spike is not going to take down the stock market immediately in some massive meltdown. As an example, when stocks peaked in October 2007, the unemployment rate was only two months away from breaching five percent and starting its steep climb. In other words, we were basically on the doorstep of that unemployment spike and recession.
It takes time for the underlying economic damage of people losing their jobs on Main Street to impact Wall Street. My personal base case is that we likely still have another 6-8 months of markets going up, with markets currently in melt-up mode getting overexcited about the rate cut that is almost definitely coming in September.
But the noise from people struggling to find a job right now is loud. Come September, I expect it to be even louder. And in Q1 2025, I expect that noise to be positively deafening. I'm long equities and I expect to remain long for now, but having gone through 2008, I am deeply aware that Nick's overall message is correct - You should keep a very close eye on the labor market.
The stock market is at ATH because the USD is worth 40% less the stock market should be higher by 20% but we are in a recession.
40% of all USD was printed since the 2019 fever dream
Also it’s like 15 companies pushing the entire market higher in a flight to safer growth. Last point September or December whenever they do cut will be a major sell the news event. It’s all baked it already. Il getting prepared to go short come the 3rd week of august
I think your on it Nick! Thanks for update!
Food prices are sucking everyone dry.
Most of the "food" people are buying isn't real food. They could save their money and their health by limiting what they put in their shopping carts to unprocessed products and cooking for themselves from basic, whole food ingredients. (Time versus money and health.)
I am feeling the stress.
Really? We haven't even started. If folks think this is bad they have no idea what is coming next. It is going to be so bad it will take people's breath away..
Big companies can make as much as they want. Crazy that it never trickles down to us.
Where were you during 2022 when companies were making record profits and we were all making record wages?
@@Ravi-rl8tt wages haven't even kept up with inflation. Even if the dollar amount is more the power of that dollar is less.
@@MrShowoff27 Mine easily have superseded way past inflation. Quit flipping burgers and get a real job lmao.
@@Ravi-rl8tt You liked your own comment pretty fast. Oh, so trickle down economics just worked for you in 2022. How scientific! You really show an understanding of large scale statistics vs your own anecdotal information. I'm not sure you could handle having a job when you display your lack of understanding of simple concepts.
@@MrShowoff27 Quit using the singular form when I was overemployed with six jobs in 2023 at the peak🤣🤣👌🏾.
I like your on the road vlogs. The office videos are just as good and maybe in some ways better because we can focus quickly on your points. Data/charts helps a lot to focus. Good report and analysis. Thanks.
I don’t get it - here in Montana, business have signs that say “walk-in interviews welcomed!”
Every place is SO desperate for workers.
Definitely haven’t seen any Help Wanted signs around here like there was last year.
Sahm Rule and Hindenburg Omen also triggering. Adding this 14% YoY unemployment is another tick in the danger column. Considering the yield curve inversion too I think we may be in for a helluva ride.
There is never a positive video on this channel.
Fed will not cut until December the whole damn ship is going to go down by then
They'll cut after they've broken things, not before. Investors know that, so when the Fed does a cut the stock market will have a sharp drop. Unfortunately I think that will get the money printing back.
Good it needs to go down. Then maybe Americans can stop acting like spoiled little brats.
And we are already deep into national debt this is seriously a disaster
Low rates are never the answer, low prices are. Production has to rise to meet inflation.
If housing demand is at such low levels, then why are house prices still record high and not falling?
Because the Casino is into all hard assets.
Demand is low because they can't afford the house
The high end of the market is still doing pretty decent. Also, Boomers who bought long ago when homes were dirt cheap compared to now have been selling for massive profits post-2020. They've been a record share of home purchases for a few years now. BRB buy a home for $125K back in the 1990s, sell it for $650K in 2022, put down 50-100% on a new build. So many of my parents' friends have done exactly that, and the data backs it up. For buyers in 5-15 years there will be a lot of supply available from Boomers leaving existence.
Be patient all these rich boomers that bough second and third houes or rentals and companies that did the same are about to get their faces ripped off.
It is called - Stagflation. Prices keep going up while demand keeps falling at the same time.
Wahhh waaaah dude you’ve been saying this for the last 3 years, you’re wrong
Unemployment is actually going up lol
I live in a community of about 200 houses in Central Florida, and I was driving around on my golf cart when I started counting the houses for sale, 23 total. I've been living here since 2017 and have never seen that many homes for sale.
Prepare of a major Hard Landing. Ppl have no clue whats coming when these lags are full stop
I'm favoured, $27K every week! I can now give back to the locals in my community and also support God's work and the church. God bless America.
when someone is straight forward and good at what she does best. People will always speak for them. For me I can would say give Mrs Sonia Duke of finance education a try and you be happy you did
Please who is this Mrs Sonia
This sounds so good andI would like to
be a party to this, is there any wayl can
speak with her?
Mrs Sonia Duke is gradually getting the recognition she rightly deserves. She's worked for it and this is only a testament of her good works for families
Honestly, our government has no idea how
people are suffering these days. Imuch
feel sorry for disabled people who don't get
the help they deserve. All thanks to Miss
Sonia Duke, imagine investing $1000
and receiving $5700 in a few days....
Wealth is the money that you don’t spend. The more you know about finance, the better your chances of building wealth. Achieving a rich life with a good work-life balance often comes at the cost of financial independence due to lower pay. These are tough choices to make. Remember, investing can give you a jumpstart toward financial freedom. At 44, I've already built a $2 million portfolio.
Varied sources of income is wise and especially living within your means. My net worth is $1M and I can pay my bills with no stress, but I don't live like I have that. I have no complaints.
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Please who is the consultant that assist you with your investment and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch if you don't mind
Find financial advisors like Becky Lou Gordon who can assist you. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Thanks, I found it. I booked a scheduled with her on her website, her résumé seems pretty tight.
Companies cut lots of people just prior to taking free money a few years ago. For some folks it's nearly impossible to return to work.
There is not going to be an explosion in unemployment. The issue we have in the USA is a mismatch between in demand jobs and those trained to do them
Housing's last bubble popped around 2007. Fed began cutting in 2008. Rates went to zero in late 2008. Housing bottomed in 2012. 5 years later.
I don't know what people are smoking thinking a quarter or half a pount cut will do anything. When the economy goes through it's down cycle it lasts years. 2020 doesn't count, that was a superficial slowdown from COVID in an economy that was still expanding. What is happening now is the real deal.
We won't recover until 2034.
I agree with all you said except the last sentence if you look at the fundamentals in 2019 the economy was slowing before all of the federal money started flowing in from Covid
As I've mentioned we are heading into a deflationary depression. This is going to be worse than the inflation we've experienced over the last few years. Buckle up folks.
I'm wearing two seatbelts, and several other harnesses... this is very scary.....😊
Yes seeing it everywhere layoffs.
All I had to do is look at the local freeway and the traffic has went down big time couple months ago slammed
They are going to cut rates for reasons you explained as well as allowing people to refinance their mortgages to stop the foreclosures that are being faced. So watch the inflation numbers after this happens.
True. The govt will come up with programs to keep foreclosures at bay. More govt debt, harming Millennials and younger. But bonds will be juicy.
Don't worry about it, the stock market is up close to 20% in first half of this year, so everything is fine.
Thats what my liberal friend tells me.😂Just ignore everything else!
Not if you’re unemployed.
@@jasonsheehan7782conservatives rig the game to make the rich richer and the dems give all the money away. Both are equal bad and are owned by the rich, and this is exactly why we are in this situtaion.
@@jasonsheehan7782liberal and friend are two words that don’t go together for me. 🎉
I am a 37 year veteran in the real estate industry in St Louis MO. Your videos are so important to our industry and arming REALTORS with knowledge that is so difficult to find and compile let alone pull it all together as you do. You were laser focused on this video, took time to explain it thoroughly and repeat key points. Well done.
This is very interesting. In December 2007, when we had a similar YoY unemployment change (13%), the fed had already started cutting rates. It looks like the first rate cuts in 2007 came in August. The fed was not able to change the trajectory in YoY unemployment by cutting rates.