"Why Most Published Research Findings are False" Part I

In 2005, John Ioannidis, well known for his research on the validity of studies in the health and medical sciences, wrote an essay titled “Why Most Published Research Findings are False.” In it, he lays out a framework for demonstrating:
• the probability that research findings are false,
• the number of findings in a given research field that are valid,
• how different biases affect the outcomes of research, and
• what can be done to reduce error and bias.
In Part I this series, we will be introduced to different types of errors, their probabilities, and the concept of statistical power. In Part II, we will learn about Positive Predictive Value, or the believability of a study’s findings, as well as how biases can impact results. Part III lays out six corollaries that characterize scientific research and what scientists can do to improve the validity of scientific research.
“Why Most Published Research Findings are False” can be found at: journals.plos.org/plosmedicine...
Ioannidis, John P. A. 2005. “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False.” PLoS Med 2 (8): e124. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124.

[@user-yq2wk6yg8s]

How can this work of genius attract so few views?
Just found this saying on Tim Harford's latest blog post: "..it’s not the things you don’t know that cause trouble - it’s the things you do know that aren’t true."

[@keithwhitlock726]

Follow the money.

[@rachanaraizada]

Speaking for economics, business and management research, this is probably quite true. I have had that opinion for years, long before I ever heard of him. The problems occur at an early stage in the research: in the absurd assumptions made in order to make the research feasible. It's not only that the results are false, it's that they are absurd, irrelevant, or analyse trends 10 years after they finish, because that's when the data become available.

[@b4u334]

It holds true in physical and life sciences and psychology too…

[@mariotristanl.8708]

Everytime I read and listen I feel much better - Wonderful findings

[@johanvanoosterhout541]

Ioannidis emphasis be very short in finding good research and making things not more complex as necessary

[@ExistenceUniversity]

If true, then his paper is equally likely to be false.

[@riflekittymeow]

That would be a fallacy. If true, then his paper is 100% likely to be true. However, under the assumption that this is true, then you may be just as likely to guess that this paper is false if chosen at random.

[@grayman7208]

so ... gibberish claiming true can be false, and false can be true ?