Bitcoin 4 year Cycle - Where are we?
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- čas přidán 11. 09. 2024
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mongo@blockguard.org
Short and straight to the point. Thank you for the analysis
@@TheProject702 my pleasure 🙏
Great info … exactly what I was searching for!! Thanks
My pleasure, I'm glad you found value in it...
Mongo, I’m on my 3rd viewing of this video. I have a question: Do you believe the bull market will end somewhere “approximately” between March and October 2025?? Yes, I realize you’re not providing financial advice, I would just like your opinion!!
Based on which "Peak" from 2021 you use as the "top", you have February 2025 or October 2025. You should keep both of those months in mind and use other indications to sell/scale out of positions.
The real top by metrics and other indicator was the 2020 Peak, but we had an ATH in 2021. So that's why I offer up to possibilities. Thus far the 4 year cycle is valid and intact.
I hope this helps and yes nothing is FA.
@@mongo-crypto it helps a lot! I’m considering stopping monthly DCAing and instead purchasing monthly limit orders starting at $50K and work my way down each month in $500 increments. Does that make sense?
I would not do monthly at this point but weekly would theoretically or even daily buys for a better average. Let's say you have $50k to invest, well divide that into 120 days and DCA daily... While I don't recommend CEX's like Coinbase vs Defi they do offer a nice auto buy feature where you set up the payment method and the period and they do all the work for you. Pretty cool. Best of luck and NFA.
So you’re predicting 70-90k to be the top for this cycle?
Sorry if this was unclear, but the original projections based on diminishing returns are $78-$90k as the top for Bitcoin this cycle... Because of the Bitcoin ETF and Blackrock I've relooked at the fib extension levels of $102,000-$155,000, while I see $100k is possible it's extremely hard to predict. Hence I've given two ranges with data backing those up.
I hope this clarifies my reasoning behind these two different peak ranges.
@@mongo-crypto it does thanks, how high do you see alt coins going? Like sol, ada and icp
If you pull a fib from the previous bull market top to the bear market low you will see the fib extensions of the 1.618 and 2.618. Those are realistic cycle peak targets. So in most cases those are 50% to 200% above the previous ALT... But like Bitcoin and ETH the Alts have diminishing returns as well. So keep that in mind. For example the previous ATH for AVAX was around $150, I'm expecting $175-$350 based on how explosive this market becomes. I'll try to do more videos on this showing how I make my projections.
When I click your discord link on this video or the blockguard website it doesnt bring me to your discord channel. Any idea why?
Worked for me
I've double checked it's this link.... discord.gg/blockguard
@@mongo-crypto that linked worked. Brought me straight to the invite. I'll check out the community. Thanks 👊
bitcoin is not money
Store of value IMO.
I do not agree with the 5.3 theory
@@mattmartin3136 lol then explain why not... Its history repeating itself and it's been replicating its self nearly perfectly each cycle. It's one of many theories that's still valid until proven otherwise.
@@mongo-crypto what’s also valid: in 2013 BTc 1200 high, 2017 BTc 20k, a 16x, then from 20k to 69k in 2021, a 3.4x, with this I can say that BTc has always done at least a 3.4x or higher, some abnormalities this cycle, BTc reach a all time high before halfing, never done before, and guess what, we still have another 15-16 months left of this bull cycle
@@mongo-crypto so many other fundamental factors that has happened ie. BTc & Eth ETF’s, . Also, Harris can not will with a crashing economy, so they have to turn on the money printers, plus 2-3 rate cuts this year, if Trump gets in, all the more positive, then there’s the 4 year cycle factor with next year being the parabolic move, alt coins have even started to run yet
While I agree with you in the fact the "real" bull market hasn't even started yet and we have at least 8-12 more months of upside, we have no idea what the effects of ETFs, QT/QE, Rate cuts, etc... All of those are "wild card" variables that we can't us in our predictions for price. Since I'm a trader first I use Fibs... So realistic fib targets for this peak are the 1.618 coming in around $102,000 and the 2.618 coming in at $155,000. To me this is just a range/realm of possibilities, it's easier to predict the "time frame" vs the "peak price". Since it's a lot less factors playing into the 4 year cycle and that theory. To date it's still valid, and while the 5.3 theory is technically a valid theory it's not the end all be all, its just another tool to use to predict a possible "range" of where we should be looking for bearish signs in the market.
Thank you for your reply and insight.. There is no right or wrong answer and we in ways saying something very similar... Diminishing returns are real but what it translates too at the end of this cycle is to be seen.