10 Numbers to Understand the Population of Tomorrow
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- čas přidán 5. 06. 2024
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In this video, I look at 10 numbers to explain the population changes that are projected between now and the year 2100
0:00 Intro
0:30 10.4 BILLION
2:16 2.1
4:30 #1
5:57 8
9:05 -650 MILLION
12:38 0.88
14:28 94
16:13 54
18:13 64
21:10 TOP 10
Most numbers in this video came from the UN's WorldPopulation Prospects 2022: population.un.org/wpp/
Big thanks to Our World in Data for this great interactive charts and maps: ourworldindata.org/
Music by Epidemic Sound: epidemicsound.com/creator
Select footage/images from Getty Images
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Sorry it's been so long since my last video (again). In this video I look at some highlights from the UN's population projections for the future. Obviously, the numbers are just projections, and there's no telling how accurate they'll turn out to be. But I wanted to pick out some of the most interesting numbers, as well as numbers that represent something about the bigger picture. Each number relates to a certain topic or country. I didn't want to do this in a more traditional "Top 10" style, but rather as continuos narrative, because at the end of the day, most of these numbers are connected in some way.
Long-time viewers of mine know that I like to keep things as neutral as possible on this channel, and so I'm pleased to announce of new sponsor for the channel, Ground News. Compare news coverage from diverse sources around the world on a transparent platform driven by data. Try Ground News today: ground.news/wonderwhy
Hope you enjoy the video. Thanks for watching!
Quality over quantity!
Keep up the good work! :)
Eyyyy you exist
Its okay! You don't need to apologise, we have been getting used to it for 9 years now
Fight for your freedom!
All in all not good, but also not to bad. This is still a possible best case scenario. But i hope we will be still around to witness this.
Worst case scenario, A.I. wipes us out in the next decade.
I saw a comment from a Japanese person who said they weren't worried about the population decline. His reasoning was that with less people, housing prices will have to decrease (or the housing bubble will pop sooner), there will be less pollution, wages will have to increase even for unskilled or lower tier jobs, and a smaller population will mean more tightly knit communities.
He then joked "Cheaper real estate, less pollution, higher wages, and less crime. How will Japan survive?"
In the long run, he is probably not that far off, but the problems will be in the transition period.
1) The whole demographic issues of an aging population. While that likely will resolve itself eventually it will cause massive issues for decades.
2) With a dramatically lower population you are going to need fundamental changes to the economy. And that usually is not pleasant.
Agreed, saving this comment.
Yeah thats not gonna happen , the economy will tank, essential jobs wont be filled and crime could even explode as money become tighter and tighter.
Oh, yeah? With a declining working force and an aging population, guess who's gonna have to compensate for the lack of source of income and rising in social programs? Yup, the remaining working population. So, good luck being taxed to death to be able to maintain the pensions for the elderly.
They build houses, not because immigration but for two main reasons:
1) tradition
2) safety
Japanese don’t like the idea of inhabiting a place that wasn’t made by them. They tend to tear the houses down and build anew one.
2) being prone to earthquakes, they prefer to build anew one since an old house will certainly be torn after awhile and if plan to live there for the next fifty years it is better to have something that can endure earthquakes that long.
Professional demographer here. This is a very well done video; clear, accurate, and covering many interrelated topics at just the right level for a novice to understand the big picture and the pieces that make it up. Bravo!
What do you think about the IHME projections that the world's population will peak around the mid 2060's at ~9.6 billion and fall to ~8.8 billion by the end of the century? The sharp decline in birthrates, especially in non-Subsaharan African developing countries, has been incredible. This stuff is incredibly difficult to predict but this scenario is seemingly becoming more plausible than the UN projections. Things change so fast.
I wonder what demographers do for living…
Yeah with a World tfr at 2.3 (?) how are we going to go from 8 billion to anywhere near 10 billion? Are there that many young people around right now to grow old so that we will make it there or will we peak at around 9 billion?
@@TheHamburgler123 And the funniest part is that it isn't evenly spread. Some parts are already declining so if world population grows or even in total stays the same it will mean fewer Europeans + East Asians and a lot more Africans. This is already happening. Imagine the world in 2050.
BABE WAKE UP NEW WONDERWHY VIDEO
Yes honey… ;-;
Omg!! I am here!!
I JUST WOKE UP WAS I LATE
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I OVERSLEPT !!!!
I'm from Mexico, and the fact that my country went from almost 6 births/woman as early as 1975 to 1.9 last year is just insane. At this point, in less than 70 years we will transition from one of the fastest-growing countries to start seeing a population decline (our current is 130m, projected peak is c.2050 at 150 million) there will be one point where the Mexican birth rate is lower than that of the US, something insane considering that a few decades ago it was literally like 2-1
It really is something to behold, isn't it? My parents are from Mexico. My dad had 11 siblings. My mom had 8. Meanwhile, I have "only" 3. And frankly, I don't even know if I'll have children, but if I do, probably not more than 2.
Over the past 15 years, fertility rates among Hispanic women in the United States have dropped so much that now they're only barely higher than women of other ethnic groups, and even their birth rate is below replacement level. For years, the U.S. had a higher TFR than most European countries, but a lot of that was because of the higher birth rate among Hispanic women. Nowadays, the U.S.'s TFR is well below replacement (1.66 in 2021), and is not any higher than much of Europe. A huge driver of that decline was the precipitous fall in birth rates among Hispanics.
It used to be that foreign-born Hispanics would have higher birth rates, while U.S.-born Hispanics would have birth rates more closely aligned with the general population. But now, with much of Latin America approaching replacement fertility as well, I don't think even foreign-born Hispanics have a birth rate very different from the general population.
What happened in Mexico?
@@MaximusAugustusOrthodox i guess currency devaluation in the 80s
When that happens, the white race will be extinct.
It's not just Mexico, but most of Latin America is either below or just barely above 2.1 (a few areas of Central America are the exception, and maybe 1 or 2 S. Am. nations. But I suspect even they won't be really high for much longer). Brazil's TFR is now below the USAs
It's always a treat when a new WonderWhy video comes out
The main issue with the “Africa will compensate for the decline” argument is that many of these countries aren’t known for their stability and are often propped up by foreign aid or goods (e.g fertiliser). Furthermore these places are likely to be some of the hardest hit by projected climate models. With western countries dealing with their own issues I very much doubt that the Congo will have a population over a 300 million given it’s history and the West not being able to bail them out. I can’t recall a historical period where the metaphorical pie is shirking and the 4 horsemen don’t show their ugly heads which has me most concerned.
you do realize russia and China is investing in Africa right? why do you think africa is going to be a third world continent forever?
Well with the right technology and climate management I'm sure whatever countries exist in the territory is now the DR Congo might be somewhat close to 300 million.
Why are they always making baby and the rest of the countries continue bailing them out. Let them learn.
@@merickclare You should be sent there with no money in your pockets to teach them.
Congo doesn’t need the west to bail them out. They need the west to stop stealing from them.
Seeing the statistics about my nation(Bulgaria) makes me cry, I don't want my nation to die out or move out but considering the political landscape I can't blame the people wanting to leave. 😢
@@felip3442 Suffice to say in turmoil for the past 3 years - we don't even have a working government for a term of 4 years since early 2021 and in just few days we will have the 4th parliamentary election in the span of just 2 years
@@felip3442 There was an attempt to form somewhat a loose coalition between various political parties that were spread out among the various political spectres (left, right and center as well as conservative and liberal) around late-2021 and early-2022. Then the issue regarding North Macedonia's EU ascension immediately caused friction between the coalition partners. But the straw that broke the coalition's back was when the War in Ukraine broke out and the questions on whether or not to send military aid to Ukraine and to expell Russian diplomats (since some parties are leaning on the pro-Russian spectre and they try to take advantage of the perceived Russophillia here). The government resigned in mid-2022, another elections were held in the fall without any government formed and this Sunday the population (who is already sick and tired of the political bickering) will go back to the pools...again.
Bulgaria will be a majority Roma country at this rate
Make more babies then. It's not rocket science
Funny side note: I'm German. My parents consider moving to Bulgaria because of the much cheaper prices. They mostly life off of their retirement savings and could just afford a whole lot more with that money in Bulgaria. Also the black sea coast is beautiful, so that's a good reason too.
I think many population projections ignore the potential for a plunge in fertility rates.
I live in China, before 21st century China had 20 million births per year, which dropped back to 15 million after 21st century. After the abolition of the one-child policy in 2015, China's births returned to 18 million in 2016 and 2017, and remained above 15 million till 2019. However, starting in 2020, China's births and fertility rate took an extremely rapid plunge, with births falling to 10 million and the fertility rate plummeting from 1.5 to 1.1.
Until 2020, both Chinese and international projections suggest that China's population will grow until 2030 or even 2050, reaching 1.5 to 1.7 billion, and then slowly fall back in the second half of this century. Yet just three years later, China's plummeting birth rate has brought the population down earlier than expected.
So I think many countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, have overestimated population projections, and their fertility rates are likely to fall rapidly in the coming decades as Africa undergoes rapid urbanization and social development. Japan and South Korea's populations may not always fall so rapidly either. As their populations fall and housing pressure decreases, young people may be more willing to have children, while Japan and South Korea may further ease immigration. Even now Japan and South Korea already have large numbers of immigrants from China and other East Asian countries.
I mean outside of the fact that your entire speech is riddled with factual errors you went as far as to say Japan has a lot of Chinese immigration? 🤣 Japan is a homogeneous with very strict immigration policy- they only have around 780,000 people of Chinese descent in the whole of Japan, I wouldn't call that a large number of Chinese immigration 😂
Yeah, I agree. I think for a lot of nations that are or will be experiencing a population decrease after birth rate drops off below replacement levels will, after a time, start to rise again. Once those populations decrease to a certain point ad the nations stabilize at those levels with likely lower housing costs, higher wages and job availability, and hopefully lower levels of education and career pressure and competition, young people very likely will regain the time, interest and finances for having children and starting families. Will be interesting to watch these trends in the next few decades, especially those in Eastern Asia.
@AbsolutelyFeral I'm not an expert on the subject, I just try to stay well read, so don't take my word on this as gospel. The US population projected to continue rising through 2100, though slowly.
This is primarily due to immigration, as the birth rate has decreased to below replacement rate, but immigration rates have remained high enough to maintain growth (much to the chagrin of a certain subset of the population. This means that demand for housing will continue to rise over time as well.
That said, the primary roadblock to affordable housing in the United States is the interplay between the housing market itself and our federal and local governments. This is an extremely complex topic that I struggle with myself, but the long and short of it is that housing prices will likely continue to rise for the next several years, though at a decreasing rate, potentially leading to a plateau or even a slight decline, but interest rates are projected to continue to increase, raising the effective cost of buying a home. How this effects you is entirely dependent on your locality and income, but I don't foresee it becoming any easier to buy a home for at least the next 10 years.
Again, I am not an expert. These are just my observations from what I've read and heard from people that make a living studying these topics.
@AbsolutelyFeral I honestly hope not, for your sake, mine, and the rest of us. The best we can do is work, save, and vote in our best interests.
I don't think the countries are doing the population estimates. It is the UN and other NGOs. And I suspect that those groups aren't realistic about how bad things would be if there projections were correct. So far, politically disrupted places undergo population booms in the last 50 years. But looking back further, it is definitely possible that famines and diseases start driving down populations in some countries.
Hey! Little precision for France: our retirement age is not actually 62, it's 62 **for the people who've already worked 43 years**, and 67 otherwise.
In other words, the french retirement age is 67 with early departures for people who start working before they're 24
Is that any working, or just full time working years? For instance, I got my first job at age 16, but I didn't start working full time until I was 22.
@@jlpack62 From what I've read, it's 172 trimesters (aka 43 years) for those born after 1973 (those born earlier have to work less), each trimester is counted from 150 hours of paid labor included in labor costs (there are some exceptions, such as paid sick leave which is included)
@@Julio974 Thanks for that explanation. While not French myself, it's always good to have as much objective data through which to see the world around us.
@@Julio974 In this case, I've been working since I was 11.
Interesting way to do things though
So glad to see another video. And don’t feel you need to rush with your videos. Take your time and release when you’re ready, we love them no matter what :)
Agreed
I’m perplexed that there isn’t more consideration for partial retirement. Perhaps able bodied seniors and society at large would benefit in multiple ways from working 3-4 days a week at maybe 3-4 hours per shift with even more weeks off entirely. This could maybe even begin at an even earlier age than full retirement. It would likely benefit many of their own physical and mental health. I’ve witness from my own experiences at the very least a net neutral effect no physical and mental stimulation too much idle time has on senior family members
retirement is a recent idea. And like most recent ideas it doesnt quiet work. It requires young people to pay for it. Which in turn limits their ability to have their own children. Ironically, when people had larger families, they just took care of their elderly. This switched power from the family unit to the government. As national debt crushes their respective countries it will go back to the old way.
We can't even get millions of young able bodied men to work. They would rather live off welfare and play video games all day. It's only going to get worse
I havent watched wonder why in ages!!! I remember being like 13 and finding a bunch of your videos n like yeah this is the channel. So glad you are still uploading and there seems to be a bunch of videos ive missed too. getting my big skins out for this one
There's something curious to say about Brazilian population. The number of 215 million people showed when facing the 10 most populated countries was a projection. The Brazilian government finalized the 2023 census and we actually didn't even reach this number. We're around 207 million now, showing that the birth rate in Brazil is even lower then we figured out until 2022. That being said, it's very likely to expect that Brazil reaches its peak sooner, by the 2030's or, more unlikely, 2040's. Our population will decrease faster than was expected by the projections.
was the pandemic but is already come to normality
@@marcos-ll2yr 6 million people killed in one country by the Wuhan virus more than the rest of the world combined? all right bozo😂
This is happening in most countries, even many African ones. Birth rate is dropping faster than even the UN predicted.
@@lindsiria true. In my African country the numbers r dropping fast. They’re using an estimation from back 2010 to do the 2050 numbers. A lot of changes can take place in developing countries in 10 years let alone 40 years. Outside war torn/few countries their estimation ms will be off by a lot in many sub Saharan countries as more young people move to the city. And many may go near/below replacement level 😂😂
@Ali Mo I hope so otherwise these countries future is bleak. Going from 26m to 140m for a poor, unfertile land is terrible situation for Niger
Incredibly well-made video. Very entertaining to watch!
Hello from Bulgaria-country with the fastest shrinking population in the world. There is nothing bad in that situation-unemployment rate is all time low,salaries are rising, it is easy to find a job,car traffic is less,crime rate is decreasing, GDP per capita is rising.
The truth is that all of these “depopulation bomb “ statistics are compiled by the elite ‘s water carriers. One of the most destructive elements in today’s world is the relentless war being waged on the middle class by the elites ( who I call the plunderers). The plunderers insist on an ever growing economy to ensure that they will be able to afford the newest super yacht. Their water carriers are unceasing in their efforts to brainwash the masses.
And Brazil had a president who is a daughter of Bulgarians.
Yes, and a smaller population is no longer a security risk inside NATO.
Good for you.
@@no_more_spamplease5121why do Brazilians always make everything about themselves?
18:25 - ‘this hasn’t gone over too well in France’. Masterful understatement
How bad is it?
@@concept5631 unhappy French folks seem to find the will to keep protesting, long after most societies get bored & head home… it’s down to whether Macron blinks first
@@concept5631 it's bad. It's taking a very weird turn where antifas are invited on TV to complain about not being allowed to destroy the country. They don't talk about the retirement funds anymore, they talk about marxist revolution. The retirement fund thing was absurd because our retirement are actually at balance that'swhat made people snap. Reform is one thing when you need it , but it's unacceptable when you don't , we had prepared for this aging problem. It's the Eu imposing it on us , to make all european country the same. It's not as rational as it might seem.
@@galactyx1 Protesting and striking is to France as baseball is to the U.S., it's their national pastime.
@@gabingston3430,
Baseball to Japan more like; the sport is somewhat in decline in the U.S.
Maybe not even Japan since I've heard anecdotes about it declining significantly there as well.
Great video... keeping up with the awareness needed in the issue of population
One detrimental thing that has come with the doubling of the population so far in my lifetime is the cost of housing has skyrocketed relative to inflation since the 1980s due to supply and demand. My parents bought their house in 1970 for $40K. Four bedoom, 2 story, 2 car garage. They sold it a few years ago for $800k. That's a 20 times increase. My dad was able to pay the mortgage on just his salary and pay for a bunch of kids, ski and beach vacations every year. Two cars. All on a single professional salary. Well, those days are over. A four bedroom house for a family of five in California where I live is a luxury. You have to either inherit it, be rich, or both parents need to work well paid professional jobs to struggle to afford 3 kids. And now parents are expected to pay ridiculous college fees for degrees that aren't even of much value. In the west, kids are now an expensive luxury.
*Finally,* someone blaming the real problem.
Anything that pushes up the cost of housing, or forces people to live in little boxes in big piles of little boxes, is anti-baby making.
Population increase makes every square metre of urban land more valuable and more expensive. Great for those who own land, but the younger generation must pay more and more for less and less living space.
"In the west, kids are now an expensive luxury."- explains it all.
Who let him cook??
@@UniDocs_Mahapushpa_Cyavana Why has the cost of housing skyrocketed? Rural areas have plenty of room to build houses. We still have lots of raw materials for building stuff - look at how much more retail and warehouses there is now, than in the past. We have more roads too. Why isn't there more supply? What is the real problem? In the past, people built factories in locations because there was available population, but now jobs are in cities regardless of how unaffordable it is to live there.
Great video as always
It’s actually likely that we didn’t reach 8 billion yet, Brazil came 8 million short of what was projected and China 40 million. Other countries also came in short.
I live in a country that's about crossing from a stage of rapid population growth and a young population, to a stage of stagnant growth and population aging. Most people seem to think it's a good thing because less young people means less crime and less competition for entry level jobs
But what do you think?
what a wonderful argument you gave me here , I never thought about that. Can I ask what country you live in?
@@backintimealwyn5736 Panama
@@concept5631 I think it's a good thing, we don't need huge economic growth if none of it is gonna benefit our society.
@@ZeRo-bx7lp The Panama Canal also serves as a crutch your country can fall back on.
With such high population growth in some of African Countries, it is destined to have huge humanitarian disasters.
There is some hope that the birth rate will level to a more sustainable level in Sub-Saharan Africa sooner than projected. Factors that influence SSA's high birth rate are - low urban population rates, high prevalence of child marriage, low female educational attainment, and low accessibility of contraception. African cities are growing quickly, and in an industrial economy, children become financial burdens rather than hands for extra labor, disincentivizing big families. So with consistent efforts in these four areas, not only will the quality of life for the average African improve, their birth rates will become more sustainable, which hopefully will help to at least mitigate the scale of humanitarian crises.
@@angerissues7830 European + African = Golem
Humanitarian disasters? What about all that famous African nature and wild life, which has already taken a severe hit?
Not saying it's any better in overpopulated Europe. How much nature is left here, especially in countries like the Netherlands?
Excellent, engaging and high quality presentation. Thank you...
Great photo-video content too, as well as graphs and stats.
I have book marked this video to share with others 🙂
It was refreshingly impartial. Appreciated. Subscribed:)
The issue with the question of retirement age is that when most of these old age pensions were implemented, the average person was only living 2-5 years longer than the retirement age. Nowadays people are often collecting pensions for 10-25 years after retirement. These systems were never designed to sustain that level of outflow.
Amazing work
Fantastic video! Thank you for putting this together.
Always great when WonderWhy uploads 🎉🎉
gustavo
Some of these figures are staggering and terrifying.
It's going to lead to chaos in Africa as it is the least developed, despotic & desperate continent. Europe is going to be under huge pressure of migrants.
And still quite optimistic
@@felip3442 Bulgarias population peaked in 1980, most people werent even born yet.
Niger, Pakistan and Egypt are most scary with growth because their land can’t handle that many people, in fact right now Egypt can’t handle its current population. Most scary decrease in South Korea and Balkans where 50% will be gone
@@felip3442 it’s terrifying because most counties cannot handle the population change to the degree that is predicted
I find it interesting how the Americas are going to remain relatively empty and sparsely populated with only the USA remaining inside the top 10 most populated countries.
Largely due to immigration.
That data is wrong the US lost the 3rd space to Nigeria and no other countries overtaken it.
@@omarionbayley9721 That won't happen until the 2040s or 50s
I dunno maybe cause they making it hard not to have kids
They're going for education, contraceptives, abortuon, and other shit.
@@VegitoBlue202 Please don't reproduce. This way, idiocracy will not rule. The world will be very glad for it.
thanks for the chapters theyre really useful
God I love the notification of a new WonderWhy video ❤
What about technology in general? You say technology might not be effective at providing nursing care, but in the broader economy, workers have been getting way more productive over the past few decades due to better technology. It is conceivable that by 2100, a smaller workforce will be capable of performing the workload required to provide for the aging population and sustain a growing economy (as long as the benefits of the productivity gains are correctly allocated, of course).
that's the thing tho... technology has been implemented more and more, but ppl's living haven't really gotten much better. all the profit goes to owners and rarely seep into the general public. i have a feeling this will keep being the case, unless something drastic happens.
@@TheodoreStagnum Especially in East Asia, with South Korea for example having the Chaebols or however the word is spelled meant to represent SK's big companies (i. e. Samsung, Hyundai, etc.).
But technology doesn’t solve a shrinking consumer base.
@@veronicamaine3813 Perhaps it's for the best that the consumer base shrinks. It is critical that we move away from an economy based on consumption due to its toll on the planet.
@@TheodoreStagnum you can thank trickle down economics for that. If we want technology to help the general public, we will have to do the same thing as last time: go on strike, and fight for it and be prepared to use violence if necessary.
In Quebec we have a sliding scale whereby the older you retire, the higher your pension. You can chose at what age you retire. For example, if you chose to retire at 60, you will have a low government pension. If you chose to retire at 70, the pension will be much higher.
If you take in count the present value of money and inflation, you will realize it's a scam.
Deos this lead to social issues? I mean if the richer can afford to retire earlier despite having office Jobs, while the poorer with manual job need the money and retire later. Or am I missing a crucial point here?
@@sternchen6596definitely.
But this is some kind of donkey carrot scenario. People will keep working to earn more
@@sternchen6596when ontario population will reach chile population
amazing video, thank you
Awesome video.
I've heard so many times that the fertility rate needed for replacement is 2.1 rather than the intuitive 2.0 because of early deaths. However, this never made sense to me because surely those cases would contribute as 0 to the average. So I started to investigate this myself and I took a look at the rate of male to female births. For every 100 newborn females there are 107 newborn males. (This varies a bit depending on the source, but the imbalance is generally true.) This means that 100 females of one generation need to bear 207 children in total to make the following generation the same size. This gives us a fertility rate of 2.07 or 2.1 if rounded to one decimal. That is the true reason why the value is above 2.
Also some people die young. If a 10 years old girl dies, she was included in fertility rate, but had no chance be a mother.
It makes sense to me why early deaths would be the reason. It's like the house taking a cut in a gambling game. If you have 10000 births with 5000 females, and 100 females die early, and the remaining 4900 give birth at a 2.0 rate, you've converted 10000 to 9800. The house took a cut.
God bless women.
Many countries like India have a lopsided sex ratio due to selective abortion of female fetuses. That would mean a population of 200 is more like 110 boys and 90 girls. Even if all 90 girls grow up and produce 2.1 children that is 189 population so India replacement rate is actually 2.25 not 2.1. Given that India is already at 2.3 fertility, the population has probably peaked. The projections in this video show India as continuing to grow which is suspect. Further India has one of the largest diasporas. Every year millions of young Indians leave for better economic opportunities. Factor that in and the population is probably decreasing.
@@prabuddhaghosh7022 You forget population momentum. The population doesn't decline once you go below 2.1 for nearly 40 years due to the death rate not catching up. You also need to factor in the deaths vs births. Currently, the young outnumber the old so the the average age needs to increase first and the larger younger generation age and die.
Do a similar videos, but with numbers from a study published in the lancet. It paints a much bleaker picture of the demographic change in the coming years.
fantastic video!
Incredibly well-made video
When I was a kid and the Cuyahoga River caught fire in Cleveland, 'experts' then were saying Lake Erie would be a dead zone for decades. Take these expert opinions with a grain of salt.
Fun Fact Scandinavia will actually have a population increase by 2100
That's what global warming does to places that originally had low population numbers because of their climate.
Only because of immigration. Scandinavia will become the new Middle East and Africa. Native Scandinavians will go extinct due to miscegenation and low fertility rates.
Isn’t that mostly immigration though? From EU East Europe and rest of the world
@@offthemountains Scandinavian fertility rates aren't even that low. They're not at replacement but it's not comparable to Central, Southern and Eastern Europe.
@@martijn9568 It's the meanbearpig over it again
Welcome back 💯
You know it's juicy when the latest video is about population
The final graph at 21:54 seems to follow a Zeta distribution (Zipf's law) fairly closely. It's always interesting to see this distribution come up so often when discrete random variables are ranked.
Fellow VSauce fan, I assume.
Of course part of that could be the projection methods assuming at some level that such a distribution is the expected result.
Awesome video!!
I don't think Egypt will make it into the top list because of their historical reliance on the Nile waters, but as shown in the GERD situation, their inability to enforce it. Pakistan as well because of resource limitations and potential conflict with india though much less in doubt vs Egypt. An interesting consequence of the DR Congo demograp[hic divident is the balance of power vs Rwanda & Uganda. Nigeria is blighted with relatively worse corruption, I think the dark horse is Tanzania. Fossilize this comment for 2100 lol.
Most of those African nations wont. The carrying capacity of their lands wont allow it. Even with boat loads of free fertilizer, which doesnt exist. Its pure fantasy. Someone told me Niger could just import food. Apparently they never looked at a map of Africa. lol
I think even these numbers are too optimistic, population will start falling much sooner
Let's hope it does. 🙏🏼
Nice video
The GOAT is back
I appreciate this and the visuals, but I think people can only understand if you (and Peter Zeihan, for instance) go beyond graphics to show how the population figures will affect the average family at the employment line, at the grocery store, with their taxes, with having to care for their elderly relatives, etc. People don't make the connection between bar charts and their daily lives. The difference between "The Jones family" and their parents and grandparents at the same age would bring home the numbers, IMHO.
That Very Interesting To Me As A Person Who Often Look Up For Demographics
The legend has returned!
Cool video. See you guys again in 3 years
As a Chinese I can’t imagine what a nightmare our society would be if we had 400 million more people. Less homo sapiens here the better
Exactly.
Tbh, China should have remained with one child policy.
@@Sol-ps8ox not necessary. birthrate is hitting a historical low, young people don't wanna get marriage and don't want kids, so happily China will have smaller and smaller population. We have suffered enought, let it rot.
@@Sol-ps8ox one child policy is evil, effective but evil. It’s like genocide against our own people. If you look at population density and food self sufficiency, china is not that bad. The whole world need to help women everywhere to get educated and get out of poverty and the birth rate will slow for sure
Nice video, finally you are back. Yeah, maybe my country is going down and out from Top 5 of Highest Population Countries since most of young people trying only having one children. And there's something viral in my timeline is my country migrant workers in Eastern Asia is married with locals, especially Japanese.
which country?
@@user-hx6gy5kd9t Indonesia
I feel like the map at 3:10 should have a secondary opacity scale to indicate capita per sq km. For instance, Mongolia has a population birth rate of 2.6 to 2.9, yet the population per sq km is 2... so while the land mass makes it look imposing, for scale: China has a population density of 148.53 per sq km....
Yes, but a lot of the land in some countries is uninhabitable. Australia for instance, a lot of the population is densely concentrated at the coasts with hardly anyone living in the middle.
Thanks for the video, very insightful. I think there is no problem with population decline so long as technology adapts and we as humans learn to live better amongst each other by improving our spiritual worlds.
Whats the link to the UN spreadsheet on fertility and population size btw? And also what would be the fertility rate in that case? I cant imagine it going much lower the the 1 it is today
another goat wonderwhy video
I am not familiar with your accent and find it a bit hard to follow, but you are very informative and i love all your vids. Thank you.
The names Bond, James Bond (Original)
from 2060's we can see decline in Indian population. I think I will be alive to witness it.
There is great probability of Pakistan going to war with India if its population grows at the current rate. Scarcity will be the underlying principle.
Man must be horrible living in india, I had high hopes for india but sadly it has become a failing state with lots of problems one of it being the huge population.
@@user-ue4fh5mv9s no one asked but ok sorry (?) for not fulfilling your expectations?
Idk what warranted that kind of response. 😆
@@islandsunset Are you laughing at the dark grim future of your country ? Why do you guys even like your country is beyond me.
@@user-ue4fh5mv9s why you losing your sleep over that? laughing at your obsession. lol😂😂
On how dramatic these changes could be: by the end of the century, it is entirely plausible that the US will have a higher population than China by the end of the century.
And they will be a mixture of Latinos and Indians. 🥰
@@no_more_spamplease5121 Both of which would be likely to self-identify as “white.”
@@no_more_spamplease5121 Latinos, indians and other Asians, all those people are hard workers wether in manual labor or high skilled work. The US will be fine, it's politics are chaotic and crazy but they have always been like that so whatevers.
@@duitk Surely they are. I'm a Latino myself.
@@no_more_spamplease5121Wrong, they’ll mostly be Africans. Which will then be replaced by AI.
Great video as always! See you again in 2031…
There is simply no way that Nigeria will have 545 million people in 2100. I recently read an article by a Nigerian author who noted that the country is about the size of Texas and Oklahoma together. Those states together have less than 50 million people living in fairly orderly cities and towns. Meanwhile Nigeria is already chaotic with less than 200 million people. Something bad will probably happen along the way to half a billion.
I think you read some wrong report because nigeria will have 700M people by 2100 & 80M will live in Lagos alone.
@@strugglinggamerzone3399 I didn't read a wrong report. I read the same report everyone else did, the one from the UN where they just extrapolate from current trends to make a prediction about the future. But that is silly because the idea of 700 million people living in Nigeria is absurd. The top half ofaccommodate
@@dlewis8405 true 700M people is just too much. Now imagine DRC with 400M people lol
Bad is already happening in nigeria you just don't get news. Boko harem is killing christians daily
OMG! thanks for explaining where the extra .1 in the fertility rate comes from. I have been listening to this discussion for YEARS and no one has ever explained why we need the extra decimal place. I have always wondered what that extra .1 baby would look like. 😁
😉 If it's easier for you then you could say 10 women should have 21 children to replace themselves and the 10 men (fathers).
In reality though fewer men have children and a number of men have children with more than one woman.
It's just statistics. 😂
celebrations filled the streets as WonderWhy finally uploaded a video
this is a positive video (Somewhat) and i like it
Great, informative video. I'm planning on retiring in 3 years. I am now 70 so I am help to save the problem of aging population.
What are your thoughts on imigration to developed white nations and declining white population as a percentage in the west?
@@legend9646 There are plenty of white people in Latin America. So the West will continue having a lot of white-skinned people.
And other skin colors are not a problem, by the way. Their bearers are all human and can contribute a lot to the advancement of modern civilization.
@@no_more_spamplease5121 latinos are brown skinned lol..exceptions argentinians and 10% brazilians
@@legend9646 40% of Brazil is white. Uruguay and Paraguay are mostly white. By the way, many young Germans have been emigrating to Paraguay.
@@no_more_spamplease5121 lol, no! Those 40% whites are latinos eith fair skin and not white features
It's no wonder to me, that cash incentives aren't very effective stimuli for the birthrate. There is so much more to planning and raising children, than a (one time?) cash incentive. Often there is no sufficient child care so it's impossible for both parents to work full time. Part time jobs usually pay (way) worse and many employers don't allow their employees to reduce their working hours on principle.
Having children and caring for them even only for one or two years means way worse career chances for the women in question and also often a reduction in pension (depending on legislation). Not even to start on the situation for single parents.
Many (most) societies still function on the principle, that the father works full time and the mother takes care of the children. The problem is, that this model nowadays doesn't work for many families, because the cost of living is too high, compared to wages.
Most women don't care about the money. They just look at mothers and all the ugly body damage of pregnancy and all the stress and lonely days with a boring baby and say NOPE!!!
The payments are ususally monthly (in germany for example its 250€ per child per month)
@@CordeliaWagner How the hell did humanity survived for 200,000 years then?
Also it pretty much beats being some career women sucking up both literally and figuratively to some corporate boss
I'm curious if people in less developed, younger countries will be able to find work in more developed, older countries for jobs such as nursing and/or taking care of the elderly.
Yes and they'll steal or destroy the cultures while they do it. It would be great if they assimilated, they won't
Or for said elderly to move to those lower cost countries for such care
@@Shikuesi It would be nice to see a lot of white European elders living a fun life in Congo.
Immigration is only a temporary stop gap.
And brain drain hurts the poor countries
EPIC CONTENT!
13:00 Ah yeah the shifting mountain dividend. If you don't lock them down they will wander. Great pictoral example!
I have to say, that population growth for Africa and Asia seems quite optimistic, considering the effect climate change is already having on a lot of these countries. And that's without wars, pandemics, water shortages, famines, etc.
Yes good point, this factor has not been calculated into these numbers. Also, as folks continue moving towards the poles, and away from that area this will affect everybody's numbers. Russia is going to realize way too late that it lost its focus with the Ukraine threat, when it loses Siberia.
The unemployment rate in China among the youth has been rising for the last 5 years and the official number, as bad as it is, understates the real problem. Only 24% of new University graduates in China found a job in 2022 with even STEM, Masters, and PhD graduates struggling to find work. If China had more children then they would just add to the massive unemployment situation. In a recent video posted in China by a Pediatrician she said that there were so few babies being born that there are now 2 Pediatrician for each baby in her hospital.
I think what you said is a lie，In recent years, a large number of babies and children have been added
Without fertilizer crop yields will plummet. People forget what a prominent role fertilizers play in monoculture.
0:21 I noticed that was Dundas Square in Toronto, Canada where I live
Egypt won't be a functional country with 200 million people lol
@@ibrahimel-awady5965 you're not wrong
Ehtiopia must witheld immediately the water. Egypt must know how not to breed like rabbits.
It Would Have Been An Empire
5:06 is Madero Street. Downtown Mexico City. Greetings to all.
How is the growth will be projected in the Middle East? I know you talked about east Asia but west Asia will it decline increase or remain the same?
most rich gulf countries are below replacement
Too warm already, and will get warmer over time. And oil will get scarcer.
It will really be wild if America (and Canada) will outpopulate the entire European continent by 2100. USA is already half the population of Europe.
Implying America will even exist by then
@@prometheusjackson8787 America is strong enough to hold itself together through sheer force.
@@ElectrostatiCrow
Almost all great empire fall within, never from outside.
The Roman Empire was founded through military might. But that very might eventually corrupt, and brought the empire to civil war.
The Qin Dynasty was the first imperial dynasty of China. Their greatest contribution is the great wall of china.
However, that same Great Wall bankrupted the Ming Dynasty, which eventually divided and weakened them so much, that the Manchu from the North easily conquered the Ming Dynasty and brought an end to 1500 years of Han-Chinese rule.
It is a cautionary tales to remind future generation, that the very things created you... Might very well end up killing you.
@@Commievn True that most gear empires fall from within. If America is to fall it would need to have a series of bad leaders one after the other and it's people would have to stop believing in the idea of America. But as it stands America is actually in a pretty stable position geopolitically. And the constitution literally doesn't allow states to leave. It's not the same as other places that can just vote to be independent. If a state tries to leave it is treated as a declaration of war. And that state will be crushed by the country's government. That's why I say it can hold itself together through sheer force. The only real problem America faves is it's political system which has polarized it.
@@ElectrostatiCrow
If you are talking about geographically then yes.
America is by far THE BEST strategic location on earth.
Ranging from access to Atlantic/Pacific ocean to multiple network of rivers to arable lands to tons of oil and other natural resources.
The U.S is without a doubt very OP.
However again, like i said before. All great empire fall within, never outside.
The U.S is too divided politically, socially and demographically.
The U.S is also seriously overextended.
Maintaining 700+ military bases put a massive stress on the economy.
If you look at Roman Empire and U.S.A. You will see extreme similarities.
Both have a problem with slavery history.
Both over-expended in military
Both have massive cultural different between 2 regions, for the roman it is West vs East, for the U.S it is the coastal (blue state) vs central plains (red state).
Both are very diverse in race/gender/sex.
Both also have a drug crisis.
China needing African resources is only part of the story, China also wants part of Africa's economy to bolster its slowing one (due to population decline).
But Africa is being developed extremely quickly, typically such change can taken centuries. The fast building of roads and rail, ports, power plants, factories and internet will rapidly accelerate Africans towards the better lifestyles and accelerate the point at which they have fewer children.
Honey, wake up
WonderWhy uploaded!
6:49 coming from Pakistan, and seeing this right now, while I see the country is at the brink of collapse since its inception in 1947. I cant avoid but see an extremely dark future ahead because at the current number of 230 million is way above than what can be accomodated. In my home city Karachi, its quite normal for 4 people to live inside a same room while working in the relatively industrialized city. Crime is high. Corruption is high. Unemployment and hyperinflation with cherry on top: people at the top not caring (military that controls democracy indirectly) and finally illiteracy.
What the world may see happen to itself is a scary thought going forward, due to these additional people arriving in such countries (like Nigeria, Tanzania, Congo, Phillipines and Egypt) with so many problems already existant.
The last paragraph can be imagined through this example: People who have nowhere to run to are getting on rubber boats to Greece to enter into EU. These boats sink to the ocean floor quite often than usual. A gruesome situation indeed.
I wonder why you only post 5 videos in a year
I find it amusing how with your accent "immigration" and "emigration" are both "eh-mih-gration", and yet at one point you stress the difference between them: "one country's *eh*-mih-gration is another country's *eh*-mih-gration."
The 🐐is back
Very good! Complete and detailed. One aspect of raising retirement ages that will play in is the declining health among the elderly. Sedentary lifestyles and poor diets are now the default in many developed countries. As much as we mught wish to, and need to raise retirement ages, the poor health of the aged will not allow. Excellent video. Thanks!
I did a quick Google search India birth rate in 2020 was 2.05 so the population will stabilise (given India is also net emigration country)
India 🪷 is pretty hard to predict, as
• It is very healthy institutions that even manage to have a decent amount of growth and innovation for this era of institutional decay 🤢. This means it is constantly changing its own paradigm.
• It is right next to the unstable Pakistan 🏙👑.
• It has strong relations with a lot of nations.
• Having a non-Abrahamic religion 🗄 majority, it is much more open to marrying with its neighbours.
No India has very high fertility rate of muslims. And their population also growing that conponent will increase acerage fertility rate of India evn more and non muslims are decreasing which will be another domino effect
India tfr is now 2.05 in future we will face the same problem which east asian countries are facing today
Never our 200 million muslims fertility rate is more than 4 😂
@@human8454 That Sucks
@@Indian_Rajput You can always deconvert them toward atheism.
@@human8454 source? You grandma?
@@human8454 Your humanist values are impressive
Interesting.
Felt like I was on the Data is beautiful channel at the end. lol
Great Video, But i Just Dont get, How should all those people live? Fx almost 500 Million In Pakistan ? and they are already poor, with bad infrastructure, food scarity,high inflation, big debt and terrorism ? how should that work out?. Of Cause they can export a lot of people (that would send money and help home), they could hope for a new breakthough in food production?. But what then with Clima change ? More droughts, More flashfloods, water scarity ect ect.
The earth resources, land and food have a limit. So, human population has a limit, too. Either peacefully or through disaster.
I wonder what this would mean for conflicts and wars. The age of at which people can keep working is significantly higher than the age of common soldiers.
There will certainly be wars in some African countries and in Pakistan. With plenty of climate refugees.
It means that cultures and nations that were smarter in family planning in respect to available resources(having a stable population inline with food production) will overpower and conquer the ones that weren't. Or atleast they will have a very big advantage if they wanted to do it
@@Vajrapani108 Then that means all Russia has to do is survive and outlast the rest of the world as global warming provides Russia with more arable land.
I enjoyed your video but I'd point out that this is based on UN projections which likely overestimate both population and fertility. Independent estimates suggest population peak may occur pre-2050.
I just hope the population isn't 3 billion by 2025...
Why not just raise the retirement age to 100 so that no one gets to retire?
What are the population growth or decline projections for North Korea.
I fear to imagine what devastation to the environment the rapidly growing population of Africa will cause. I'm willing to bet that all the animal species that are classified as endangered or even vulnerable will become extinct by the time Africa's population reaches 4 billions.