THIS Could Make The 2024 Hurricane Season Less 'Explosive' (3 Reasons)
Vložit
- čas přidán 31. 05. 2024
- The 2024 Hurricane Season is expected to be extremely active with La Nina returning and the Atlantic water temperature running much-above normal. There are some limiting factors that could help the 2024 hurricane season be less-active than predicted. Still, it is likely the 2024 hurricane season will be extremely active.
Subscribe to @just_weather for more weather content and analysis
Chapters:
00:00: Intro
01:25: Reason 1: Saharan Dust
02:37: Reason 2: Very Warm Atlantic Ocean
04:00: Reason 3: Increased Wind Shear Over Atlantic
06:00: Hurricane Season 2024 Forecast
07:16: Computer Model Forecast For 2024 Hurricane Season
Hope everyone is doing well! In all likelihood the 2024 hurricane season will be very active. With that said here are three reasons that could make the season a little less active than expected. Thanks for watching! - Jonathan
What about people reporting a super La Niña?
How does a super La Niña effect the corn belt in the United States
As a Florida Native now living in North Carolina and no stranger to tropical systems here, I hope citizens heed advice and go ahead and get storm supplies to have on hand... I start storm prepping in May no matter what Mother Nature throws at us... My family was among many that dealt with Hurricane Hugo remnants in '88, also saw the F-4 tear an 80+ Mile Path of Destruction through Raleigh to Franklin County, I keep my family on our toes when it comes to severe weather 🌪🌀
@@NickHaus683 a “super” La Niña directly following a strong El Niño is unlikely. But, there is always a low possibility, in which case the hurricane season would likely be more exciting that average.
Corn belt wise, my understanding is that storms will be less frequent, but the potential for the ones that do come through to be stronger than average is a higher possibility.
@@steven4794I think the bigger trouble will come with spring storms impacting planting time
Informative channel! I hope Saharan dust does its job and diminishes the hurricane season this year.
Oddly enough I discovered that minute deposits of "Saharan dust" are an important source of soil nutrients to the Amazon rain forest. (The Netflix series "Connected" explains this.)
Nice accidental use of "catch my drift" by the way, lol.
Thanks!! It’s the ultimate catch 22. Does good with the fertilization of the rain forest and weakening hurricanes, but also fertilizes red tide and other algae blooms. - Jonathan
@@just_weatherDoes the dust in the air cool the air temp?
Hi, Jonathan! Thank you for another very informative video. You’re absolutely right about the Saharan dust. Here in Trinidad, we’re impacted regularly and unfortunately, air quality is forecast to reduce yet again in the coming days. I was looking at the GFS model for available precipitable moisture for us and it showed some promising rain to help quell the drought conditions over the end of this week into the weekend, but with a huge plume of Saharan dust on the way, that could definitely put a spoke in the rainy wheel 😔 I was wondering if you can explain the effect of the Bermuda-Azores High on storms in a future video 😊 Thanks again and looking forward to your next update ☺️
You are very welcome! Thanks for watching! I will 100 percent work on a video about the Bermuda-Azores high. That’s a really good idea. Thank you again! - Jonathan
It doesn’t mean anyone is going to get wiped out, but it does mean Floridians will be jumpy most of the summer. It’s the nerves on edge I always hated.
I hear ya. I’m in Florida too. All we can do is watch and hope they stay away! - Jonathan
Same feeling here in south Louisiana
If it bothers you so much then don’t watch the weather. You will know if it’s time to leave by the buzz in your town.
After a direct hit from Ian PTSD sets in easily .....
@@PaulaTourville-po7fg Exactly. Ian direct hit here. I will always be prepared but “jumpy? “ Not at all.
That’s a good point I’ve always wondered over the last 20 years how Colorado State University officially predicts hurricanes given it’s nowhere along the coast.
no but they do have the Alarmist global warming dim bats..
"Fish Storm's" 😂 SOOOO Funny.... 💯💯💯.
😂- Jonathan
You are the first meteorologist and weather CZcamsr to mention the Sahara dust. Everyone else is hyping that it is going to be a busy season due to the water temperature and El Nino. I think its go be busy but the Sahara dust go play major factor
I completely agree with you! - Jonathan
because literally every season ever has had saharan dust, thats why
Saharan dust also affects june/july the most and is one reason why those months are some of the least active of the season, after august starts going the dust outbreaks happen less and are less significant
@@Galifax2 I aware dust happen nearly every hurricane 🌀 season. My problem is that leading up to the season and early part of the season. Some meteorologist and weather CZcamsrs kind of hype the season saying it’s going to be a busy season. They mention water temperature and the El Niño but never talk about the Sahara dust.
Remember doesn't matter how many storm regardless it takes just one storm to make landfall and wreak havoc...Katrina, Michael...etc
@@zacio5972 Bro, I’m born and raised on hurricane 🌀 highway (Florida). 2004 my area got a direct hit from two hurricanes within 1 week and half apart from each other. Before that time back in the 90s my area mostly got tropical storm winds because it hit other areas of Florida. I totally get what you saying.
So true 👍 we're already hearing very similar predictions of what's ahead .. for the season ... know everyone's saying way too early to start watching ... don't agree on that one ... still believing preparedness will always win out ... many of your followers are listening ... look forward to your upcoming opinions .... meantime Bim, could not be lovelier..Hopefully it's remains so .. with the whole world watching us come June !!😊❤
Glad youre not hyping this season up and on neutral between ways it could be extremely active and ways it couldnt be active unlike lots of channels on youtube hyping this up more than it should.
Have to look at everything. Although it does look active I hate hype. - Jonathan
@@just_weather exactly hype isn't necessary. Just remain neutral and professional at all times it isn't worth it to hype it up or be one sided
Hey Jonathan. As always, thanks so much for ur weather expertise and keeping us informed on this year's Hurricane Season. 🙏😬😩😫🙏. Goodness, I can't believe it's almost that time again. Enjoy ur week. 💖🤗💖
Enjoy yours as well! Hope you are well! - Jonathan
Great Bruins analogy for the slam dunk. Huge hockey (and weather) fan here too.
Awesome!! Love it! Thanks for watching!!
Hey Jonathan. Hello from Tampa. Another Hurricane season.
Hello! Hope you are well! - Jonathan
This is why I subscribed because we never really do know exactly how it will play out so it’s nice to stay connected to the experts and watch closely
Really appreciate that! Welcome to the team! - Jonathan
Love the video -
Thanks for watching! - Jonathan
Jonathan the only weatherman that gives a positive spin on what we all know happens every summer. A refreshing change from the end of the world doom and gloom weather forecasts.
I don’t want to give a false sense of the season, but I also don’t think there’s a reason to scare the crap out of everyone! - Jonathan
I left Fardo for that reason hurricane season comes every year the place I had in Florida last year. The hurricane took it nice weather, but it’s not the place to live full-time.
I believe in you
I'd like to know when the wave pool in Edgewater fl will open.
As a born and raised Floridian, I’m on edge every single hurricane season due to some memorable “hits” we’ve experienced! I’m in the Central Florida East Coast area and out of all of the “hits” 2022 was by far the WORST for us! There are still about 10 homes in my development that still have Uhauls or PODS out in there driveways because the can’t afford to get their homes fixed. It’s so sad. I PRAY we don’t get another scare like that for yearssssss to come!
That’s terrible. Really hoping for a quiet year for us. You should watch News 6 if you don’t already! - Jonathan
Me too…😱
I’ve lived in fl my whole life (35 years) pinellas county and never been directly hit. Knock on wood. I always say one year we will get hit. Praying to god it doesn’t happen. With inflation, condo assessments, high insurance costs, this year seems like it would be the perfect storm 🙈
What city do you live in? I live in Cocoa Beach and 2022 didn't affect me in any negative way.
@@acz51088 your lucky! Hopefully you’ll stay on a that lucky stream. I wouldn’t wish it on anyone.
No joke. In Tampa, we really cross our fingers each year, and hoping, hoping when it is here, that it lingers because right after that Aug-Sept hell is coming.
Warm waters slay us...terrible, sends them right up through cuban, key west corridor--no way out.
Don’t wait until the day before landfall to decide to get ready. STAY READY!
Great advice! - Jonathan
Just spent my first winter in Southwest Florida. Chose this are because they rarely get hit by hurricanes. The activity in late September will be the factor for me returning for the winter then or later in October
As a native Floridian born in Broward county. Ft Lauderdale area I'm 66 now who ever gave you this info is highly mistaken S.W. FLa gets hit second most area in all of Fla. N.W. Florida gets hit the most. Historical records actually show the most powerful storms were during the little Ice age. Back in the 1700 hundreds.y mom was from Bellglade and she lost family during the Sept 1928 storm. Only time will tell what happens this summer but the climate is in a constant state of change and I believe these climatologist are just fear mongering. We have to many northern transplants in our state
We really are hoping our current governor builds a northern wall and kick out all the Yankees who have ruined south Fla. Way worse than any hurricane has ever come close to
So just stay home. I'm sure your safer there.
every time when there's a potential of a strong La Nina they always predicting the Atlantic Hurricane Season to be very active to very destructive but they always forget about the limited factors that could make the Atlantic Hurricane Season to be not so active such as SAL outbreaks they always be concentrated on little to no wind shear & no dry air & the very warm SSTs/Sea Surface Temperatures & the UOHC/Upper Ocean Heat Content which would help tropical cyclones to develop or form properly and make them very powerful
but they let the limited factors that would limit tropical cyclone development and prevent them from becoming stronger such as SAL outbreaks fly over their heads
like it doesn't even exist
Yes, this is 100% accurate!! Those are very important pieces to look at too, and people who aren’t familiar with hurricane seasons don’t know about this and get instantly scared! Thank you for pointing this out! 🫡
I would suggest taking a look at the Solar Cycle for its correlation to the hurricane season.
Its role is small in the hurricane season. - Jonathan
My satellite doesn't show dust going north( goes east) what satellite are you using? All i ever see is it heading west to south America
This was earlier in spring. Google Saharan dust Greece or Italy and you’ll see the images. - Jonathan
1992 Andrew in August. The first A storm in 3rd month the season.
This could be 2029 Atlantic hurricane season will be more explosive.
It would be La Nina of 2029-2030?
If we had 32 named storms, 14 hurricanes and 7 majors.
Would it be like way of 2020 or 2005?
Started in early June and will end in January 6, 2030
How can I forget Andrew back in 1992 he took my record collection
been through 8 of em!!!
That’s crazy! I see you did watch this video. This again highlights the factors that could throw a wrench into the record-high forecasts that’s are out. Even so I mentioned this is wish casting, but if the season isn’t as active these would be the reasons why. - Jonathan
Yeah they exaggerate the weather to charge more insurance $$$. Total BS
Actually not the case at all. Insurance goes up after something happens. - Jonathan
Rapid Intensification like what occurred in Acapulco would trap millions in Florida if there was little warning to evacuate barrier islands that are all up and down the coast.
You mean like Ian? I was here, we had 12 hours. It was great....
Great analysis most people are fear-mongering!
Of course, we can never tell if the storm goes too far south and misses being brought North and out to sea, or how long the dust lasts.
People have to realize the difference between active and direct land impact is two different stories.
But I didn't see any maps for the temperatures in the Gulf, if storms stay South of the Sahara dust and the cooler temperatures these more likely would be headed toward the Gulf.
People realize what Colorado state is saying how many storms are forming, not how many are hitting you realize they don't make that forecast that's impossible.
Of course, we all hope and pray no one on the East Coast or the Gulf gets hit, that's all we can do mother nature calls the shots.
And then we drink them :-)
Exactly! Live this! - Jonathan
Florida is always jumpy
I think the Saharan dust will be weak this year.
I also think that the cooler than normal subtropics versus the anomalously warm tropics will result in less competitive areas of rising motion so that all the rising motion can be focused over the deep tropics instead of being spread out over the entire Atlantic ocean.
This would cause storms to keep moving westward with lighter trades and less windshear over the MDR and caribbean whereas there would be higher windshear over the subtropics as the thunderstorm activity over the tropical region would create strong upper liver divergence enhancing that rising motion and convection whereas there would be upper lever convergence over the subtropics resulting in more subsidence and high pressure.
This is why it may not be all that positive when you look at how the atmosphere works.
I extremely highly doubt that the SAL outbreaks is gonna to be weak this season well at least in the first half of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season such as June & July and early to mid August
but I can't speak about the second to last half of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season such as mid to late August and right through October
nope, when you see the SAL doing its thing so early this will limit a lot.
plus they've said that the SAL was gonna to be weak along with no dry air and no wind shear at all during the 2020 and the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons but both seasons turned to have very strong SAL outbreaks & a ton of wind shear and dry air until the latter half of both seasons which both seasons turned out to be back loaded seasons
when both seasons were supposed to be front loaded seasons as they were predicting to be which they didn't turned out to be
Actually SAL was pretty strong in 2020z that’s one of the reasons why we didn’t have a hurricane until the H storm. Then it backed off late in the season like it typically does. Thats when the bad stuff happened. - Jonathan
Finally somebody with a brain, these hypers even the smart people tend to put everything at the highest level, then they forget the SAL.
Have to look at limiting factors. It will probably be active but nothing is a slam dunk in the weather world. - Jonathan
That Saharan dust is an early season phenomenon (May, June, parts of July) but is not sustainable during The Mean Season (August, September, October, parts of November). The waters are an absolute boiler, and, lately, the early season has meant BIG trouble for Gulf Coast states. LOTS to worry about this upcoming season. That said, I hope that you are more on point than not. Good luck to ALL!
I mentioned that. A lot more concerning factors than limiting. - Jonathan
Colorado State University has been was off on their predictions in the past some years, I think this is going to be one of those years where Colorado State University misses it big.
They have been pretty good lately. - Jonathan
Why? They are among the world's best. 😊
fISH Storm vs Land fall....doesn't always depend on the positioning of the Bermuda high? If the high is east of Bermuda....fish storm. If the high is west of Bermuda, it can track the storm into land.....right?
That is correct. We don’t like when the Bermuda high is west for the reason you mentioned! - Jonathan
I'm not looking for an apocalypse either, but if this indicates a new normal it could mean even higher insurance rates. Florida could price itself out of existence even before it is submerged.
I know. Ugh. I’m in Florida and it’s just out of control. Way too expensive. - Jonathan
I dont think this is gonna effect the season, were still a month in a half away from hurricane season
What don’t you think will? - Jonathan
Every year it's, OMG run take cover.
What? - Jonathan
EL caveat or LA caveat , that is the real question my friends
The Bruins analogy made me nauseas even a year after the fact.
Sorry about that! Hopefully they will get back at them this year! - Jonathan
Unfortunately, no...
I would suggest you get to the NOAA SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE MAPS! There is no Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly on the Atlantic ITCZ! The temperatures across from Africa are around 26 C to 28 C that is a HURRICANE KILLER! I am not saying it will not warm up. I am telling you that the area is actually COOLING at this time (5/27/2024)
It’s still above normal. . There’s some dust on a local scale but current anomalies are still way above normal even with the cooling. - Jonathan
@@just_weather You are full of it! I have the North Atlantic data maps from NOAA. It is between 4 an 6 degrees below normal in the north Atlantic -- Stop Lying
One other video showed anomalous areas shaped like a big egg off the coast of Florida as you show, Bermuda and down...as COOLER than waters off the Coast of Africa. That videographer said this would intensify hurricanes, but in the past cool waters toward shore LESSONS hurricane winds... ??? I don't understand why increasing sheer is bad. I thought wind sheer blew the top off and prevented strengthening? But with other channels I don't even see this "cooler water" nearer to the Atlantic Coast. Am I imagining things, or are there inconsistencies in expectation. "The rule" apply, don't apply, apply, don't apply...are "The Rules" for hurricane behavior even real?????
I would find credible sources. There is a cool anomaly off the Carolina coast toward Bermuda. They may be showing actual sea surface temperatures rather than anomalies. The cool pool may induce wind shear which is BAD for hurricanes like you mentioned ruined because it will blow the tops off. Why this pattern is bad though is it will force up and focus thunderstorm development where the water is warm leading to more organization. - Jonathan
Talk to me about the dust when August and September roll around. You’re posing this opinion waaay too early.
I guess you didn’t watch the video. - Jonathan
Just like the jobs report. Explosive when it first comes out, then it gets downgraded.
True! Although they may end up going up a little more. Most forecasts are below model guidance :/ - Jonathan
Where's the comment about a fart I can't find it
Weather video should expire after a couple of days.
Why? This is still relevant… - Jonathan
Did you predict that 2023 would be a very active year of storms? If so, you were wrong!
Actually near average and I was wrong. 2023 the the 4th most active season on record. We were lucky that most of the stayed out at sea. It can be active without it being impactful. This season appears like it will impact more people. - Jonathan
It like they controlling the weather
What? - Jonathan
They can't get today's weather right it's gonna be what it's gonna be whatever mother nature wants it to be.
Who’s they? - Jonathan
i love how every other prediction says we will be hit with storms lol
Unfortunately it looks very active. I was just saying there are a few things that may help out a little bit to keep it a little less active than expected by most. - Jonathan
These named storms are also a joke, if someone farts on a ship in the Atlantic they rush to make it a named storm these days.
Not entirely true. Some storms I agree probably shouldn’t be named but they do meet the definition. Better satellite technology to do that. Either way pay attention to the hurricanes. Can’t really argue of something is a hurricane or not. - Jonathan
Comment #1
Hello! - Jonathan
Eat good and exercise. Don't waste your money on pipe dreams.
Meee first
What’s up?! - Jonathan
I think the Saharan dust will be weak this year.
I also think that the cooler than normal subtropics versus the anomalously warm tropics will result in less competitive areas of rising motion so that all the rising motion can be focused over the deep tropics instead of being spread out over the entire Atlantic ocean.
This would cause storms to keep moving westward with lighter trades and less windshear over the MDR and caribbean whereas there would be higher windshear over the subtropics as the thunderstorm activity over the tropical region would create strong upper level divergence enhancing that rising motion and convection whereas there would be upper level convergence over the subtropics resulting in more subsidence and high pressure.
This is why it may not be all that positive when you look at how the atmosphere works.
Also the pressure difference/pressure gradient may be stronger closer to and over portions of the subtopics right near the boundary of warmer and cooler waters but the pressure gradient will slacken considerably within the deep tropics as there will still be a very LARGE area of warm waters and rising motion meaning that lower pressures of similar values will cover expansive areas of the deep tropics.
That is correct. That’s why I mentioned that storms would likely miss that wind shear. I do agree with the temperature Anomaly. The cold on top of warm pattern does oftentimes signal above normal activity for the reason you mentioned. I mentioned that all signs point to an active season, but the smallest thing can derail a forecast. - Jonathan
But…but…I thought climate change made the end of the world inevitable?
This doesn’t have anything to do with climate change. The fact that water is insanely warm right now does. - Jonathan
So many “BUT,”s
What? - Jonathan
Is this a man a weatherman?
Wishful thinking.
Guess you didn’t watch the video. - Jonathan
@@just_weather Don't worry, Jonathan. I did watch, and I listened, but it's 7am where I live (Australia) and I can't write a decent comment before my first coffee! I get all the points you made about Saharan dust, recurving storms, and wind shear over the northern Atlantic. But, honestly, I think 2024 will be an especially bad year for the continental USA. You gave the reason, too! More storms are likely to move into the Caribbean and these storms will likely be the strongest and wettest ones because they'll be in the sweet spot where there is less wind shear. I've seen a few of your videos now. You're always very informative and insightful. Cheers.
Good luck explaining this to flat earth organisms!🤣🤣🤣
So far forecasts seem to be really inaccurate. Everytime they say it's going to be an active season, its the opposite. First they were predicting over 20 storms now north carolina is predicting 15-20. They never seem to get it right
That’s actually not true at all. There hasn’t been a below average season since 2013. The above average predictions over the last decade have been spot on. Each forecast outlet predicts their own. That’s not an update. - jonathan
It is really irrelevant how many storms there are….it only takes one
This! - Jonathan