This is Not a Mild Recession
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- čas přidán 18. 05. 2024
- A look at why the economic recession is deeper than headline real GDP stats. Is there any glimmer of hope on the horizon the economy might turn a corner?
00:00 Intro
00:40 Why this recession is different
3:12 Households Squeezed
4:45 Industrial Output
6:20 Unemployment
7:30 Good News?
9:00 Real Wages
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Thanks for comments. Do consider subscribing for more content like this. Text version. www.economicshelp.org/blog/215432/economics/the-long-recession-of-2023-24/ I agree some of rise in savings is due to higher pension contributions, but ONS don't make it easy to identify. There is definitely scope for further increases in the minimum wage, though you can't just rely on minimum wages
Very tired of this now. I'm in my early 30's and I've spent my entire adulthood under conservative governments. It's been nothing but near constant bad news and decline for 14 straight years, while the rich keep getting richer.
Worse still, regardless of the election result, we're not being promised any meaningful reforms that would actually address the root causes. The wealth and income gap was already harmful and grotesque 10 years ago, it's completely ludicrous and crippling now. Just staying alive is an expensive endeavour on the average salary, forget saving up for your own house.
Feels like 2017 and 2019 were the last chances to turn the ship around this generation. Millennials and Gen-Z are being given nothing to hope and realistically aim for, therefore they have less and less reason to actively participate in a broken system. Our dreams got cancelled. 😞
(Edit) Wow, didn't expect this response, thanks for all the likes and comments. Don't know how to feel that so many people can relate to this. 😅 At least people are becoming increasingly aware and vocal that the status quo isn't working for anyone but a small minority anymore, and demanding a better alternative. I hope the right movement, and right moment, arises soon. 🙌
Alas, Covid did far more damage than the obvious impact of money creation, furlough, sickness rising and generally creating even more national malaise.
The damage it really did was delaying the inevitable which was a correction to the housing market and fundamental reforms being needed in the period you mentioned. Markets were primed to correct around the 2019 period, certainly house prices were but Covid propped it all up and gave it one last rocket launcher push which has made the issues even worse. Rather than ripping off a band aid back then, we now need to tear off plaster casts without pain relief and then make the country hobble around on a broken leg without even giving them a crutch for support.
2023 was always the year where negative catalysts happened but it is going to be 2024 where the real pain is felt most across the broader economy. It will be bad news after bad news and even dropping interest rates is not going to stimulate anything quickly. Batten down the hatches, get ready and survive and let us hope that 2025 onwards, with a new government, will at least bring some optimism and a new found motivation to succeed. Something this country has been lacking for a long while. Far too many people being given oars but not enough of them are rowing. GDP per Capita is a wonderful measure of actual overall financial performance. The outlook is bleak.
I understand the pessimism but wait for Labour’s manifesto. I’m at least optimistic about their house building plans.
I wish I could take them seriously, but Mr Starmer broke all ten of his leadership pledges to become Labour leader, and abandoned just about every left-of-centre, or even centrist position he ever held. He's completely untrustworthy.
Reeves seems perfectly happy to continue the same neoliberal system and methods that got us in this mess. Also repeating debunked myths like 'magic money tree' and 'maxing the nation's credit card'. Getting her excuses in early. Another pro-corporate, pro-austerity stooge.
I don't see Starmer-Reeves doing anything but returning to the failed Cameron-Osbourne austerity era, except now there's almost nothing left to cut or privatise, so it would be even worse still.
No salvation is coming from this version of labour. Sadly, they have no interest in challenging the status quo anymore.
Mate, I’m 32, this is exactly what I’ve been telling everyone around me for years. It’s like you’ve copied and pasted my words here. Wack innit. 😂
if you're in your early 30s surely you had a good 13 years of new labour too? Hopefully that's enough to show you that the two main parties cannot offer you wat you want.
Wonder why media keep banging on about GDP and not GDP per capita..hmm I wonder
Exactly.
They want the true pitiful state of the economy (which GDP per capita shows) to NOT be obvious to the average person.
You should look at GDP PPP per capita.
Former trader Gary Stevenson says this is not temporary but chronic and driven by inequality that is a consequence of the monetary policy post- 2008 that have created massive asset inflation for the rich. They can buy everyone out now.
Gary Stevenson ffs
There speaks a frog in the pot on the stove.
@@CuriousCrow-mp4cx yes exactly, all the people who think Gary Stevenson has all the answers. I might write a book and call it "What they don't want you to know: inequality is because of inequality" although I'm not sure I could handle the fame that would ensue
Yep, farmers are the next ones to go. Having their industry destroyed by the Australian and New Zealand “deals” they will be forced to sell their land to survive.
The Welfare State is the problem, just take “Our inactivity rate in the UK is 21.95%. In Iceland it is 13% and in the Netherlands it is 14%,” the Chancellor said last week, referring to the share of working age adults who are neither in work nor looking for a job. We have created a society of people who don't want to work or contribute.
Angela Merkal told the World in 2012 “If Europe today accounts for just over 7 per cent of the world’s population, produces around 25 per cent of global GDP and has to finance 50 per cent of global social spending, then it’s obvious that it will have to work very hard to maintain its prosperity and way of life,” Ms Merkel said in the interview.
“All of us have to stop spending more than we earn every year.”
This is the UK and EUs biggest problem
The richest in society are still getting richer, whilst the poorest have their assets stripped through inflation. Love your videos for their accuracy. The only solution I see to Britains problem is to reverse the flow of money from the very richest to the very poorest, I however don't see this happening even under a Labour government.
Try organising that. The politicians who troll you over and over again are the very wealthiest..if you so much as dare move to change the narrative you be destroyed..like Corbyn or worse be labelled a terrorist..fun times
The Welfare State is the problem, just take “Our inactivity rate in the UK is 21.95%. In Iceland it is 13% and in the Netherlands it is 14%,” the Chancellor said last week, referring to the share of working age adults who are neither in work nor looking for a job. We have created a society of people who don't want to work or contribute.
Angela Merkal told the World in 2012 “If Europe today accounts for just over 7 per cent of the world’s population, produces around 25 per cent of global GDP and has to finance 50 per cent of global social spending, then it’s obvious that it will have to work very hard to maintain its prosperity and way of life,” Ms Merkel said in the interview.
“All of us have to stop spending more than we earn every year.”
This is the UK and EUs biggest problem
@@garyb455 Then you get businesses to pay a proper living wage, so the government doesn't have to top it up for them to live. The UK unemployment rate is far below 4%, so it obviously isn't those without work but those in full-time work that don't receive enough to live off. However, I do not see this as the main problem, the main issue is how this is funded, not by the richest in society but those who are Middle Class.
No government can stop this. Life will be of that Madagascar 🇲🇬 😢
@@whatsupwhatsup457 Except for the warm weather
Not enough industry in UK. Very vulnerable as we are dependant on the finance sector.
And we kind of shot ourselves in the foot on the finance sector by pulling out the EU 🤔🤷🤣
UK also trying to kill off their own farming and food production.
@@arghjayem So why did so many in the City support leaving?
@@OnlineEnglish-wl5rp Tax avoidance?
@@andrewwotherspoona5722 If we were dependent on the EU for the success of the financial industry, the people working in that industry would be rather foolish to want to leave just to save tax on profits which would be impaired by leaving
As an engineer with MBA degree and 10+ years of industry experience, I say this: First, they outsourced manufacturing jobs to China, now they outsourcing IT jobs to India and God knows what's next. It's all for profit, nothing else. Yes, they will say it's a free market, globalisation etc and politicians will sugar coat it while the UK economy is slowly dying. They (ruling class, corporations and politicians) don't care about the UK or the people, all they care is profit and donations. Yet, people will still belive and vote for them without asking any meaningful reform. As long as politicians and the system don't change, nothing can change in the UK. If it goes like this, a minimum wage job will be the only job my son will find after 20 years. Wake up people, please wake up and demand some change, some reforms. It doesn't have to go like this.
So sad. We have exactly the same problem in Australia although with a delayed effect.
Well said
When you need to put your credentials before a comment on CZcams... 😂
As a Mechanical Engineer, with two degrees and 28 years in industry, and impending redundancy due to China, I concur. With both of you 😂😂😂😂😂
Yep, InfoSys have a lot of the contract jobs in the UK and the rates are lower than usual. Rishi has helped his father in law out. 😂😂.
The UK has been in recession since 2008!
The UK, outside the vampiric financial district of London, has been in Recession since 1979.
I'm in broad agreement with this analysis. However, the Minimum Wage is actually set far too low - witness the fact that huge numbers of people on low wages but in full-time employment are ALSO on *Universal Credit* just to able to survive. In other words, employers paying low wages are being subsidised by the taxpayer. Witness ALSO the fact that the average property value is around 8 times that of the average yearly wage.
When there is SUCH disparity between wages and the cost of living - including energy, fuel, food, mortgage repayments and high rents - the situation is ACTUALLY getting WORSE.
printing more credit without a tax scheme will increase real inflation. Some believe the minimum wage is a major source of wage inflation.
@@Carlos-im3hn Errm - I'm NOT suggesting QE (Quantative Easing - ie just printing more money). What on EARTH made you think that I WAS? No, sir, what I'm suggesting is PROPERLY taxing large and multinational companies in order to fund greater public spending.
As economist Gary Stevenson asserts, we are in DESPERATE need of redistribution of wealth. And given the massively increased profits of large and multinational corporations in recent years, the tax burden should fall upon THEM and not on ordinary taxpayers, who are being squeezed like never before right now.
85% of land , assets and companies in Britain are owned by less than 0.01% of the population
There’s a group of centre-left economists who insist the government can set a minimum wage at any level whatsoever and this will never have any negative consequences for employment. Our host cites the Resolution Foundation, who find - amazingly - that reality conforms exactly with their policy preference on this issue.
I’m doubtful about all this, though I’m still up for trying it. Maybe we really can raise people’s economic value to employers purely by raising the minimum wage they must be paid. Maybe Amazon will happily raise the wages of its warehouse workers, and not automate the jobs away. However, I think the more important thing is to design an industrial strategy which makes the best, most productive use of the population we have.
In the 1950s under Harold Macmillan, we raised worker wages by the government funding things like motorway building. These projects pushed up the demand for labour across the economy, and back then we couldn’t push up the supply very much by immigration. So wages rose as a consequence. We can’t do exactly what we did back then, but we need something similar.
Britain is famous for its corruption, centred on Banking in the Cayman Islands.
Inequality is more important and the downstream costs of supporting it through public services.
im part time only. for equality. i only work the same hours as a single mom.
The recession is mild but we’re experiencing a long stagnation
Mild that will linger on. Just like 2008
Permanent stagnation 👍
Expenses like immigration up.... 40% loss of energy income....huge waste ...Over staffing in some places understaffing in others..crazy !
The Tories and the mainstream media have been absolute masters at hiding these realities from people these last 14 years. They got the City spivs off the hook for the consequences of their massive crash
@@MrSmegfish There have been massive cuts to the public sector since 2010 - with the same services being used by more people
Uk has been sleep walking from recessions to another since 2008
It should have been allowed to crash back then, it's going to be an awful lot worse next time, and without this slow inexorable decline
We as a country has been asleep at the Wheel since the end of the second world war.
Still the second largest economy in all of Europe tbf
@dt3692 yes it's all good in 50 years .... 😂😂😂 how many hours u work VS how much u earn ??? Europe leader 😂😂
*since 1945
I don't think this video quite addresses the state of society these days; the housing crisis, the emergence of levels of poverty not seen for many decades and the chronic backlog of work required to bring public services back to servicability after thirteen years of cuts.
The state of hospitals and schools and their massive backlog of repairs, public transport especially in the north, local authorities facing bankruptcy, the care system (I have experience of this and it is appalling), support services relied upon by so very many, the criminal justice and prison system whose systematic decay few people see and, of course, housing. Housing policy has been extravagantly inadequate (or non existent), to the point that local authorites are being driven to the wall by the costs of the sheer need for emergency housing. How can those who rent have any money left to be consumers after have paid half their taxed earnings to a landlord..? Poor housing is now endemic, it affects everything from mental and physical health to child attainment, it is is essential. For those growing numbers who do not (or never will) own property face a lifetime of grief and insecurity. The state has abandoned its responsbilities to help people in large part.
In short, we are going to need a hell of a lot of economic growth and a humane and determined government that is going to reverse this growing impoverishment of people and services and it will, realistically, take many years now. We have areas like South West Wales that are the poorest in Europe. We have (as mentioned in the video) a reversing life expectancy, an absolute red flashing warning light. Illnesses hitherto unknown have reappeared and emergency food aid reliance more akin to a less developed country.
If people in Britain were to see how much poorer they were compared to northern Europe, not just in terms of income but quality of services they would be very surprised indeed.
The Welfare State is the problem, just take “Our inactivity rate in the UK is 21.95%. In Iceland it is 13% and in the Netherlands it is 14%,” the Chancellor said last week, referring to the share of working age adults who are neither in work nor looking for a job. We have created a society of people who don't want to work or contribute.
Angela Merkal told the World in 2012 “If Europe today accounts for just over 7 per cent of the world’s population, produces around 25 per cent of global GDP and has to finance 50 per cent of global social spending, then it’s obvious that it will have to work very hard to maintain its prosperity and way of life,” Ms Merkel said in the interview.
“All of us have to stop spending more than we earn every year.”
This is the UK and EUs biggest problem
@@garyb455 I don't think you quite comprehend just how threadbare the welfare state is these days, after twelve years of cuts, how difficult it is to claim welfare benefits, how low they are - for example, Local Housing Allowance in many parts of the country does not cover full rent costs.
You should listen to the experiences of of disabled and seriously ill people, how harsh life is and just how many have lost their lives because of the harsh administration of and inadequacy of disability benefits. I wouldn't be complacent here, it only takes one car accident, one hit by a speeding driver and bingo, you have an acquired leaning disability for life. Good luck then..! No work, no income and the cruel harsh world of the current welfare system. And abject poverty of course.
Do you know how many economically inactive people are carers...? These people who sacrifice work to care for a seriously disabled child or loved one save the state tens of billions of pounds every year. They are emphatically not ''inactive,' these people have incredible endurance and have never been valued.
People are 'economically inactive' for many reasons, ageism (alive and well in the UK and unopposed legally), a lack of in work support, the total lack of public transport in the countryside making commuting impossible (ANOTHER Tory cutback!), various disabilities and illnesses that employers reject.
One thing is for sure, it isn't because of the welfare state, the UK welfare state and its welfare benefits are practically the lowest in Europe. Along with its state pension rates.
You see, people often don't know the appalling state of things in the UK, how they have deteriorated so vertiginously until actually they need a particular service. Care is a good example. I have experienced this, the cuts to care packages in England have made it so difficult for an older person to get help at home (an eminently humane and cost effective service) and care homes, the one I have experience of is private equity (naturally) and it costs seventy grand a year..! And, of course, it pays its hard working staff not much more than minimum wage, talk about rip off Britain..!
@@stephenthomas3085 I'm from Eastern Europe and it's crazy how much support you get from the government and still end up poor
@@dioniscaraus6124 It's not crazy, it's part of the post WW2 settlement when a decision was made by the people (and voters) that they would never return to the misery, deprivation and poverty of the inter war years. It included a health system for everyone, social housing, welfare state, livable state pensions among other things.
What is the wealth of a country for but to spend on one's own people..?!
Why are so many people poor though.? Work no longer pays for many, they still have to claim in work benefits to survive. Privatisation has led to huge increases in prices for services. Systematic cuts to welfare benefit levels mean they don't come close to matching the standard of living. A chronic housing crisis means that those condemned to rent all their lives will always be insecure and poorly off as the private rented sector is unregulated. A long term lack of investment in poorer regions and unwillingness to deal with serious social problems and reverse inequality that has grown steadily over the last forty years.
All kinds of reasons. In broadest terms it is a result of Neoliberal deregulated Capitalism marked by short termism, inequality, the discredited concept of ''trickle down'' and policies designed to enrich the few at the expense of the many. We have had forty years of this and these are the consequences.
I am married to someone from Eastern Europe and she sees and cannot comprehend how, in the UK, thousands of old people die of cold each winter, as if it just nothing, an acceptable casualty. Essentially that, a hugely wealthy country refuses even to look after it's weakest. Or, that children go to school hungry, or that increasing numbers of people are in hospital for malnutrition. Or that the care system does not function leaving vulnerable people with hopelessly inadequate care that they die unnecessarily.
This she just cannot understand. That these things happen in the (on paper) sixth of seventh wealthiest country.
@@stephenthomas3085how come there's a lot more men begging in Bucharest than havefordwest then?
I love these stats. Albania is in Europe. Never seen toddlers begging on a busy dual carriageway in the UK. Did see that in Tirana tho.
Work very quiet for my industry now. Friends going out of business also . Not good.
they should invest in property to make fantastic gainz. or cryptos.
What industry?
@@graemebarriball303 Site investigation. (building site ground conditions, drilling holes, soakage testing, etc)
These higher mortgage rates are starting to really filter through in 2024.
Many people already struggling are paying £300 extra per month when their low fixed rate mortgage ends.
Couple this with everything else skyrocketing in price and the future looks gloomy.
they bought into a property ponzi scheme with artificial low rates. they are just being harvested.
All I can say is good oh! About time savers got something. Interest rates were artificially low for too long.
My mortgage doubled last year. £500-£1000. Luckily I saved to make a big over payment which brought it back to what it was.
My cousin is pulling his hair out as his will be going from £850-£1500.
The real kick in the teeth is the banks are lowering the interest on savings.
The game is rigged.
@@sfactory8253I'm personally not affected either, I made final payment on my mortgage in March 2023 on a rate of 1.69%.
CBDCs
Got another good news story for you - although it could be a whole video if you wanted it to be. One of the hidden good news stories in the UK for the last decade is the spectacular growth of Manchester. The population is soaring, growth is above the national average, skyscrapers are sprouting everywhere and optimism is high, built around media, sport and higher education. So my question is how can the country build on this success. Can Manchester break the north south divide, and if so what is needed to do that?
Consider where the recent investment has come from, what the investment has funded and then thus, where the profits of that investment are expected to flow to. Has the investment created a resilient, healthy long term sustainable economy in Manchester, or a rentier micro economy, requiring constant inflows, to pay out, the constant outflows.
Reading is set to overtake Manchester
Very informative and yes unfortunately the UK economic situation is very gloomy, so find your analysis very fair.
Very informative. It'd be good to have the graphs on screen for longer.
Thank you for a truthful and understandable analysis
2:56 I subbed because of that chart. Falling real consumer spending. Up in currency but DOWN in volume as the standatd of living falls by design. People have to see that this is deliberate policy to create a neo-feudal system because standard of living has peaked, permanently. Debt is just about at the point of maximum saturation and the plug will probably be pulled when the central banks decide they are ready to install a new system. This entire economy is after all just a gigantic property market bubble.
The Labour government should implement a post-war _like_ council house building program. I crease local apprenticeships to plan, design and build their futures houses.
Make it law that every council house sold has to be replaced. Ex-council houses sold at discount and then sold for massive profits later should have to pay similar discount % amounts back to the selling council.
People Will vote for councils to borrow money, to build houses, and sell off council houses at a discount...
... but people won't vote for a party, that raises taxes, to pay councils, to pay the debts they have incurred, to build more houses, and tax them more when selling their ex council house...
... and none of this takes into account the extra roads, sewage, gas, electricity etc infrastructure required...
If councils are currently struggling to fill pot holes in existing roads... the clues are there, that there isn't the money available to maintain, never mind expand, existing infrastructure...
After WWII, the UK didn't have a £3 Trillion national debt to service...
@@andrewwalsh2755 all good points, but remember nobody voted for the highest taxes since WWII yet here we are.
Also, the current UK GDP is less than 100%, but post-war was, I think it was 250%.
As we should all remember or know, post-war UK was when the NHS was implemented, the biggest house building program and many social advances were achieved. So, maybe the capitalist way of thinking is not the best option…
Let me know your thoughts. 👍🏼
@@actuallypaulstanley ... I think you mean (debt/GDP) is less than 100% compared with 250% after WWII... (debt/GDP) is a misleading metric I think e.g.
Suppose:
Your debt is £5, your income(GDP) is £10
Your debt is £5,000 your income is £10,000
In both cases, (debt/GDP)=50%... but, if your income disappears, your difficulties are greater with a £5,000 debt, rather than a £5 debt.
In national terms, we were possibly in a better position after WWII than we are now, maybe? ... Today, we have more mouths to feed, in an uncertain world... and £3 Trillion debt to service...
Maybe, we have no option to borrow more, but rest assured it is not a solution ... just dumping more pain on future generations, until the system breaks...
@@actuallypaulstanley ... I think you mean (debt/gdp) is less than 100%, compared to 250% after WWII... I am wary of the metric (debt/gdp) versus (debt)... On a personal level, I'd much rather have a (£5 debt/ £10 income)... rather than a (£50,000 debt/ £100,000 income)... even though the (debt/income) is 50% in both cases. If my income disappeared, a £5 debt would be no problem.... less so a £50,000 debt... On a national level, increasing debt requires increasing gdp to control it... and increasing tax take servicing the debt interest. Come the day that gdp can no longer be maintained (due to war, or energy costs, or climate change, or epidemic etc)... the huge debt is still there, and the metric (debt/gdp) quickly goes uncontrollably critical.
The UK's miserable economic situation has been driven by decades of low private and public investment levels, a historical focus on cost-cutting over capacity building, and a total lack of infrastructure upgrades.
The UK government has repeatedly mismanaged its own economy through prolonged austerity measures, inaccurate inflation and interest rate handling, which has exacerbated slow growth rates, minimal real wage growth, and a significant increase in public debt.
The fall in average income in the UK has been driven by a combination of changing job composition, high inflation outpacing wage growth, uneven wage growth across the income distribution, and prolonged wage stagnation since the 2008 financial crisis.
Well said.
Great analysis.
Excellent Summary, thank you, could you do a presentation about New Zealand’s Economy and then Australia’s. Thanks again !
To chime in with your positive note, I would add that the influx of Hong Kong Chinese will add significantly to the economy, especially here in London where a sizable number have settled in places like Wembley, where there are lots of newly built apartments.
I hope the government is brave enough to offer subsidized training to what is a very well educated and young (though we are seeing older ones arrive too) work force to fill jobs in healthcare especially.
This is a real opportunity that the UK needs to grasp. In the past we have attracted too many migrants to fill services sector jobs delivering parcels, burgers and mini cab work.
The Chinese are everywhere now.. and yet again we didn’t get a say In whether we wanted them.
The general election must come before the influx from the far east have settled and registered to vote.
@@andrewfallon2719 The political class doesn't give a damn about you and me. You can only serve one master.
Not many will set up a factory to make stuff to export. In they will compete with locals for jobs and services. This is what happens when Tories think they are clever by offering BNO passports. What grand principles! China is sniggering behind their hands. People like Chris Fatty Patten, Ian quietman Dunkmybiscuit, Tugmyhat are total are all part of fearmongering the British public. It is ok for them with gold-plated pensions
@@andrewfallon2719how else would the UK get money haha, it’s all from foreigners
Very good analysis, as usual !!!... If u can also do a similar one for Rep. Of Ireland economy, pls.
Great presentation.Thanks.
Love this channel!
I like your good new section, God knows I need it! The savings rate includes pensions and recent changes have meant more people are paying into pensions and in fact employer NI savings mean employers are encouraged. My point is I expect lots of this money will be locked away and won't be available to consumers when they are more optimistic. I suppose the money might be used for investment and help productivity, but I'm sceptical, who's going to invest if consumption is down?
obr.uk/box/decomposing-the-savings-ratio/
Nationalising fuel will surely help? Rather than having OPEC (Saudi) dictating the price. If nationalised, we could massively reduce the cost for all the UK, but sell it at OPEC’s prices for anything that’s exported. It’s a win, win situation for everyone. The cost of fuel has a substantial impact on the cost everything.
Nationalise without compensation everything that was privatised, especially Water. Shareholders of essential services and resources are robbing the country blind, while avoiding taxes, polluting our rivers, and running the services into the ground.
Won’t work North Sea oil would run out in 5 years with current uk consumption. But it should be used to lower prices.
@@Tom-qf3mqTell me you know nothing about oil without telling me. 😂
The oil producers in the UK are private industry. You nationalise it then you will find that no one will want to deal with the UK government or supply the UK with oil and gas. Meanwhile all the expertise will vanish abroad leaving you the UK with a empty shell of an nationalised industry unable to produce anything.
Great content as usual. Any chance you could do a similar video for Ireland. Thanks
Seconded. The Irish economy is super interesting.
Yeah, it looks like it is doing ok on the surface but I think its apparent wealth is only skin deep and the average punter is facing very similar issues as in the UK
It's an inflationary depression bearing in mind the CPI inflation number is a rigged statistic and GDP net of inflation is way lower than quoted. Does GDP also include government spending like it does in the USA?
I like to read comments under CZcamss...
Very surprised this time - i had expected the normal (hefty) amount of whataboutism and muddle through replies which are normal to videos with some critical analysis of the UK situation...
Nice jumper sir
Great video
Thank you Sir
I agreed until the end. Lower earners (under 25k) are actually taxed more since the last budget plus higher earners now get childcare allowance. Could that money be better spent elsewhere?
I predicted this in my econ A Level class in 2020 and I was laughed out of the room. I wish my prediction hadn't come true.
That bankruptcy chart, is that individuals or business or both??
How do you know if a country is in trouble ? The frequency of change of leadership of government !
How much of the gdp per capita down to bringing people into the country who are un or under productive?
For young people, this is no different to years from 2008. Young people suffered horrendous recession since 2008 whilst our parents and grandparents became rich off propterty
It is different from 2008 because, back then, even finding a job was a challenge. Young people often rely on their parents, the same ones who helped them pay their £9k/ year tuition fees + increased costs (!) Do you think boomers are selling their homes to buy groceries? You'll inherit the property anyway. What about the NHS? Do you think a 75 year-old person needs it more or less than the average 25 year-old person? Young Britons are so ageist it is shocking to read how clueless most of you are.
@carlomontecarlo7881 Finding jobs was never a problem. However, finding jobs that are worthwhile is the difficult bit. Almost any employed job in the country pays so little that a millenial will spend their lives in poverty. The same job allowed boomers to become millionnaires. See the issue here?
@ilikelampshades6 From 2008 to 2013, around 3.7 million people were made redundant because of the recession - that's one in seven of all employees, according to official data from the ONS. Your perception of reality is skewed. Go tell boomers who went through the oil shocks and the turmoil that characterised the 70s they had it easy. Or tell that to the boomers from the North of England and Wales that were impacted by the monetary & fiscal policies pursued under Thatcher (where unemployment was much higher than it is now). Do you know many boomers were born in a period of food rationing post ww2? Or that in 1970s Scotland one in four Scots still had to share an outdoor toilet? Boomers literally rebuilt the country, and your levels of discomfort pale in comparison to what they went through. That is the same reason why Britain became a country of immigration in the mid-80s only (meaning more people were leaving for sunnier uplands until the mid-1980s). Stop with your ageist crap and direct your anger towards the real culprits. Hint: it's not the people who gave you the financial security that you take for granted.
@carlomontecarlo7881 Boomers rebuilt the system into one that favoured themselves at the detriment of everyone else. They did have it demonstrably easy in comparison to millenials and Gen Z. The closer you were born to 1957, the easier life has been financially for you.
Yes, politicians are to blame, but the Boomers are the demographic that they always appease due to Boomers outvoting all other demographics. So Boomers selfishly vote for politicans that favour them at the detriment of those following. 'Can't afford to give nurses their first payrise since 2008, but we can afford to give the richest demographic in the country the tripple lock on their pension'. 'Cant afford to subsidise childcare or education, but old people can retire 20 years too early as long the deal is broken for the next generation'. 'Cant afford to reduce taxes even though its at the highest level since ww2, but we can afford free prescriptions for over 60s.' 'Housing is at its most unaffordable since the 1800s but rich old people can get subsidised property'.
People are ageist because we are constantly blamed for not working hard enough despite evidence that millenials work more hours than any other generation at the same age, and yet we cannot afford half of what our parents and grandparents had. We are sick of being victim blamed when society has been curling one out on us since we left the womb. These days, unless you're a successful celebrity, athlete, or finance bro, you can expect to live your entire life in poverty. No matter how successful we are, we will never earn enough to pay off our student and housing debts or raise children. That was simply not an issue for previous generations
A prolonged recession, knocking the standard of living down for most ordinary people - where the only thing to look forward to is prices coming down after one has already been 'reduced'. 🙄
In real terms incomes have been falling since 1981.. Ever since we move from an income based economy to a rentia based economy
The bigger question is whether there's a silver lining for England's future economy? Sadly its not looking good
Depression? I am depressed already.
Life will like that of Madagascar 🇲🇬
You're talking about the UK, but you could well say the same about Canada (and to a lesser extent about Australia). Could be something in the air or water of Anglo countires!?
The UK needs to really get rid of its feudal first-past-the-post election systems. I believe the UK and a lot of its former colonies are having such political difficulties because of t.
Every vote should count and every vote should count equally. Representation should be based on ideology and policy not on where you live.
Electoral reform in the UK is a huge imperative to getting better politicians
When i recently watched the sky news report about loss of steel jobs at Port Talbot, at the end of the report, buisness manager for Siemens said, that no British produced steel was used for any UK wind turbines as we dont produce the correct steel products, therefore we have no turbines of our own. So energy cost will be higher for wind energy. The government's who have given away our manufacturing industries should be ashamed.
With more austerity on the way when the new government takes over it's gonna be grim in the UK for a while
we have the highest taxes in 70 years, we have had no austerity yet but we will have real austerity one day
@@garyb455tax increases and spending cuts are austerity though
"America has had quite good macro-economic stats” - is that down to the fact they borrowed when interest rates were very low? As opposed to UK, ignoring Paul Krugman’s entreaty to borrow to invest after the 2008 crash?
This is fantastic for our elite class. The living standards of the working class will be back to the Year 1850 within 2 decades..
All these people citing immigration as the reason I do not disagree with you. However you have to think about why we have such high immigration. The lack of investment in teaching British people to do the jobs that are urgently needed has created this demand and dependence on foreign labour. The lack of investment in the youth in general has worsened this. I am a university student. I would absolutely love to be a teacher, but instead I want to go to the city and earn +£100k rather than a teachers salary and be treated like shit. It’s no wonder the number of people working has fallen because there is no incentive for my generation to. We can’t buy houses can’t have kids and we will never retire. All these boomers saying stop immigration need to pause.
Fine immigration should come down. But before this happens pay tax and spend it on the jobs and health and productivity of Britain’s young people, who ultimately will be the nurses and social workers who look after you. We will be the ones to pay for the services that you use. But in order to pay for this we need to be economically better off. But we will only do these jobs if there is an incentive and the respect to do so.
Russia did not 'cut off (gas) supplies to Europe'. It was the other way round. Europe (EU) sanctioned Russian energy and is now paying the price by importing costly LNG from USA. Europe also sabotaged Nordstream gas pipeline. Therefore, high energy costs were largely self-inflicted. Germany is particularly suffering the re-bound of these sanctions.
You can bow to Putin if you wish
I bow to none, just the facts, which you seem to have trouble with. Go well.@@Alex-df4lt
Thanks Alex. I bow to no-one but the facts, which unfortunately you have a problem with. Go well.@@Alex-df4lt
@@Alex-df4lt He's stating facts,not kissing ass
@@theconspiracyfactorist.144 Someone with a backbone would never argue for financing a dictator pursuing genocide.
How do you conclude that the tax burden has shifted from the low earners to the high earners?
90% of the UK has not got out of recession since the 2008 crash and for them Austerity has also been a constant.
Then you look at how much spending power the Pound in your Pocket has today compared with then to highlight just how much living standards have declined across the board for 90% of us.
The US Dollar has lost 30% of its Value since 2019 and the Pound has lost Value against the Dollar, it was almost at 1:1 Parity a couple of Years back under Truss, back in the 70s 1 Pound was almost equal to 2 Dollars LOL.
6:20 Unemployment statistics are highly suspect. 16-18 year olds were excluded first then some pre retirement people, then if course half the young people now are in debt at university and are basically not in the employment market for 3 years. My schoolmates who left school at 16 in 1982 either started work strsightaway or went in the dole, ballooning the figures at the time. We need to see Labour Participation Rates.
The PAYE taxation system with the tax threshold frozen till 2028 means every increase in income gets taxed at 20%\40% plus high indirect taxation keeps everybody poor.
Wealth distribution needs to be factored in too.
I'm 51 this year, I would tell any 18 year old to leave the country and move to Australia, NZ or Canada.
We are getting a lot coming out from the UK for sure 🦘🇦🇺
Only cowards Would leave there own country
Not if your country does not care about you.@@dt3692
Is there any better there?
Does it matter if the manufacturing sector increases- if the wages are low and people dont have the incomes to spend after higher tax and higher living costs ? not really.
Smart economic policies is the most important factor for economic growth. Many examples from around the world. EU countries have widely different growth stories and income levels that boil down to more or less wise economic policies. The chaos of UK politics does not leave me with much hope for a speedy recovery. Some people are placing their bets on Starmer - forgetting Labour was the party who tried to have Corbyn be PM!
This is a permanent realignment of wealth from ordinary people to very rich people. It's not a recession. It's a change in the economy. Someone somewhere has got rich while the majority have gotten poorer. It's the super rich, who own the assets, the energy companies, the homes, shops etc (through asset management companies).
Why use Italy as an example..when its part of the single market?
I’m definitely worse off compared to 2010. Huge mortgage bills and food costs, salaries stayed the same
The recession from the 2008 financial collapse never really ended. The quantantive easiñg or money printing just masked it. Business profitability is being maintained by increasing prices as sales collapse.
Combine that with poor pay rises and individuals are worse off.
Spot on. Glad someone said it.
Just when you think they can't continue to kick the can down the road any longer, they create something new to mask what's really going on.
Wages have just decreased in my sector by 15%.
High interest rates aren’t benefiting savers at all. Name one bank which is offering a high interest savings account.
You need to buy bonds
Ulster Bank 5.2% instant access
There you go!
UK can't get out of its own way. Probably one of the most inventive countries on the planet per capita - can go toe to toe with anyone with the most important innovations from the 17th century. Just can't seem to deliver recently.
The amount of potential wasted on this country is actually insane, we punch so far above our weight in so many aspects yet so many of us are struggling just to put food on the table thanks to the twats in charge
Wlrld wide we are in a mild decline. (Not only the UK)
Thanks for the video Tejvan.
Does the UK savings rate include what people save into their pensions? (workplace pensions and personal pensions).
If so would the tax releif and employer contributions also be included in the savings rate?
"So the share of contributions to pension funds that might be considered an active part of household saving, was only around 7 per cent of the total in 2009." obr.uk/box/decomposing-the-savings-ratio/
Time for Gary Stevenson?
When accounting for gdp growth you also need to account for inflation. As if gdp growth is 4 percent but inflation is 6 percent then thats actually a 2 percent decline
The average person has no concept of this information
Has to be balanced with increasing productivity, when it’s not a downward spiral occurs
We are in depression recession.
It has been a sleepwalking depression recession for the past 16 years.
Now it’s taken effect.
If Labour wins the next election will they invest in the poor and by how much?
Or if Labour wins, will it be austerity 2.0?🤔
No it hasn't. When we really have a recession like in 2008, then you will know about it
Invest with what money? The countries bankrupt and once China decides it has had enough of being sanctioned they'll stop being our factory. That's when the proverbial will hit the fan. 😅
Catch22... innit?
For many decades, national debt has risen, govt after govt... to nearly £3 Trillion...
Politicians can't reduce debt, and some economists say debt is unimportant, so they focus on "reducing debt as a measure of the economy"... or... (debt/gdp)...
To (hopefully!) do this, they borrow, and they import cheap labour...
... national debt rises, but so too do property prices, because there's more demand from more people... and maybe gdp rises, fuelled by cheap labour... but standard of living declines...
People with homes and jobs feel secure, and better off... but there's a growing number of people paying more for homes, in debt, feeling less secure...
After a few decades of this... it becomes a Ponzi Scheme... reliant on endless cheap imported labour...
Increasing numbers of people are in huge debt, national debt is higher, and as gdp falters, so does (debt/gdp)... dramatically...
... but the burden of huge debt, overpopulation and crumbling infrastructure worsens...
...and that's where we are today: Thank you, Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair...
... and if Kier Starmer becomes PM... the end is nigh...😱
Eric Arthur Blair might be completely correct!☹️
Im a small business owner (construction) its the worse ive ever seen it many people i know havent had work for months but also the restruant owners and shop owners i know even recuiment bussiness owners i know are all saying the same thing nodboy has any money
This country is absolutely knackered, at least in the short & medium term. The most optimistic thing a young person could do would be to leave & try to earn your living abroad.....and then to bring it back here in the aftermath of a housing crash.
We all need to stop waiting for things to get better. They're not going to. I feel sorry for those who think Starmer & Reeves are going to do anything to change things. I think they might have one brilliant policy, in order to 'throw the dog a bone', a bit like Rishi & the £2 bus fare policy. But ultimately the problems are too deep. This country is an extortion racket. The only people who have any money are landlords - who extract from the labour of their tenants without earning it themselves......and pensioners who were at the top of the ponzi scheme & retired into the QE confetti that the Bank of England have been spewing out for the last 16 years or so. Everything will have to be paid for in full at some point, with interest. The country sent the bill to future generations, which is unforgivable.
There is no future to be had here in the near term, and this is no country for a young man or woman.
I suspect our owners will send us to war at some point in order to avoid defaulting on the national debt.
Interesting that you're using the CPIH as your measure of inflation. This uses a bogus, made up 'imputed rent' figure to measure 'housing costs' and disregards actual house prices, real rents, council tax, etc. Economists all disregard this important matter.
Not surprising, what does UK excel at? Automobile? Resources? Agriculture? AI tech? Tourism? Serious question, in what sector is Uk leading.
Thank you for the good news section because the reality is all so depressing.
2 of those graphs in the "good news" section displayed bad things though.
The graph at 9:08 showed that "Real wage growth" has been declining since July 2023.
The graph at 10:04 showed that the black line showing "All jobs" (of minimum wage), has actually been declining.
@@kyliepechler still not as bad as the preceding. Good enough for me
Yep it was only a matter of time.
Economic policy over the last 40 odd years hasn’t done anything to stop the general decline in living standards. What’s the solution?
Here in New Zealand we've had rate rises since late 2020
With our fixed rate mortgages ranging from 1 to 5 years, usually 1, 3 or 5-year fixed rate terms.
We are now only just seeing rates bite into the market.
This will continue for atleast 2 more years as others roll into this costly period.
Redundancies and recieverships are increasing.
And word is alot of shoppers have simply stopped spending.
The downwards spiral has only just begun.
I was so hungry last night I ate glitter. Glimmers of Hope
At least the bog will be sparkly.
And no mention of CURRENCY DEVALUATION......
It’s really a depression and if it wasn’t for NIRP and QE along with huge rises in government debt it would have hit us after 2008 not 14 years later
And just like in the USA they are importing thousands and in US millions of illegal workers to work the economy under the table...to keep it all barely running.
forever wilder inequality
They are NOT, real intrest rates, the cpi is not reflective of inflation the majority experience. And of course lowering inflation only means we are getting screwed slower.. still getting screwed
Christ its not cherry picking at all. In fact, using top line gdp figures is the real cherry picking. It's a number that means almost nothing on its own but that's the number we hear about all he time. Honestly we should ALWAYS be using real terms per capita GDP. That's what matters to normal people, as you say.
It called a lost decade. It not just a Asian thing. It a Neo liberal thing
Hardly neo liberal. Plenty of neo liberal countries performing very well. Brexit led to us rejecting some aspects of neo liberalism such as free trade with our trading partners and things got worse.
The problem is no investment in the UK for decades now
@@hazb8026 and yet the world is only run by Neo liberal government. And the lost decade problem only came about now
no houses for the young generation, has by default smashed future pensions for the older generation. - classic.
It is hard not to comment, so I will do from time to time ;)
No houses for the young generation, has by default smashed future pensions for the young generation.
yes. the young generation have not created any wealth being extorted for rents has crippled their incomes, and are more in debt that the people who will soon depend on them for their pensions. its a complete disaster.@@Visual_Ghoul
can you imagine being presented with a £230,000 starter home, but earning only £9 per hour ? its not possible. man this is going to be funny ending 😂@@Visual_Ghoul
FreePalestine ZionistJudasStarmerOutNow
That disposable income of £35000 most people don’t even earn that
The sanctions on Russia had a boomerang effect and hurt us. We may not our energy from Russia directly but it does come from there through other countries but now shipped costing us more to pay. In the meantime bg makes 1000% profits lol
Im a Millenial, my entire life is a recession
*Let it rot*
This is what you get when you have a Gov policy that bias flow of money to the ultra rich. Politicians and corporate leaders are short sighted
If people want to hear good news, just listen to the PM or any Minister.
... or Kier Starmer... he will solve Every problem...
How?... He has a plan...
What is the "plan"?... The Plan is to boost gdp, make the UK a world leader, stop illegal migration etc, etc...
And how will he do that?... What do you mean?... The Plan... is to tell a pack of lies to the electorate, to vote Zionist Labour at the next election... then... who cares!
Uk house 🏠 too expensive compared to average wages
Not really. Buy a house in the north of England or Scotland. Or buy a small apartment and climb the housing ladder. If you rent, you will never have financial freedom
@@andrewpotato6002 Have you seen the prices in Northern cities now. It's very overpriced, might as well be down south with better weather
@@voice.of.reason go to Rightmove, put in Sheffield with a 50 mile radius, sort by price. Some apartments for less than 20k and houses for less than 40k
This guy really makes me laugh. We're not just fecked, not just double-fecked, but triple-fecked, fecked entirely with no possibility ever of becoming less fecked than utterly fecked.