Explained: Kenya's New Eurobond and Its Impact On The Economy- Patrick Muinde
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- čas přidán 12. 09. 2024
- GUEST- Dr. Patrick Muinde- Economic and Financial Expert
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Kicking the can down the road
Bhana! Zakayo na Jayden ni watiaji
The best sum of this video! You win. The Dr. took a really long time to say that the gov't is kicking the can down the road!
@@tyrismaxey but the Ksh is up massively from a month ago.
Basically 😢
i have liked how Dr Patrick has explained things...in a nutshell we should not be happy with this bond if the government does not put in place measures to grow our revenues and grow the economy...if this is not done we will be in greater problems down the line.
But he started with saying they ddnt expect the govt to borrow because the market was doing good 😅😅
@@alexkibe4179 Indicators were showing that we are good, zakayo has blown hot air into our small baloon(which we were managing) and soon it will burst. This bond is a short term strategy.
We needed some breathing space. It is costly yes but with proper management and growth of the economy we shall sort our mess one after the other.
Especially if we don’t know who is doing business with government.
but the government is already trying to add its revenue by increasing taxes
If debt legally should finance a project, then logically debt cannot be used to finance another debt. How come parliamentary leadership is not talking about this?! Can MPs be sue jointly & severally for dereliction of duty?!
Chaps were pocketed long time ago.
The president approves the debt note so Uhuruto would ultimately be the ones on the hook for all the odious debt 2013 to-date.
Kenyan youth should follow international news to understand how their future is being mortgaged. This is exactly what happened in Greece
1. Loans taken to repay loans
2. Production has collapsed, economy artificially propped up with loans
3. No exports, so no income and no jobs so youth (10% of population) have left the country to seek jobs elsewhere
4. Govt seizes people's savings to repay loans, cuts pensions , healthcare etc.
We're playing with fire
Indeed!…. But then you’ll hear from sycophants how good the government is working for the hasora…. But the truth of the matter is, as you’ve laid it out 👆🏿
You're absolutely right. Venezuela loading
Please offer solutions instead of just complaining.
@@freedommCome on! Do the opposite!
1.Stop taking loans to repay loans
2. Raise production by lowering production costs. By that alone you lower prices of products and increase local and global competitiveness. That alone takes you to item 3 below.
3.Increase exports and decrease imports.
Sawa?
@@freedomm you're used to being spoon fed. Propose solutions too
The money which has been stolen before is being re-introduced to the local market.. 18% interest is a killer
THE only way Kenya can overcome that rate is to invest every dime of that new bond into a Sovereign Fund that invests in High Yield companies, maybe mimicking the Saudi or Finnish funds. Or they can basically give away CBD land and try to attract large hotel chains with lucrative licensing deals. If one penny goes to graft and theft the country is sunk.
@@tyrismaxey Which new bond? The new Eurobond has already been used for paying off the 2014 Eurobond, that was going to mature in June 2024. Kenya was faced with a serious possibility of defaulting on the 2014 Eurobond. So there is no money left for investing from the latest Eurobond. And the Infrastructure Bond will be spent as already defined - strictly on infrastructure.
When did we approve (in parliament) borrowing for reasons other than development?
You’re absolutely right, but it’s not even possible to approve this in parliament, it’s a constitutional requirement…debt is only for development purposes
It is simply top up at high rate
VERY well put by this Guest..Means i will be buying more dollar for every drop of the dollar value..this the best time to buy the dollar!!!
They are temporarily creating a small window for the fools to sell their dollar..this will be the cheapest dollar we will witness.
The bus left the station with the conductor as the driver !
Haha😂
With borrowed fuel.
@@mwendapoleeeand driving around in circles I.e. going nowhere.
Summary: Someone stole from us in 2014 and we're paying for the mess now.
Uhuruto
Who is that?
May be they are the forks who have secretly lent us back our money via this whole secrecy Patrick is talking about.
You're wrong, people have been stealing from us since Kenya got independence.
Technically bado hatuja lipa.
The plain truth is that we have postponed the burial.
Fact
We elect slay queens, musicians, comedians and some rich guys who know populism to represent us in parliament instead of accomplished project managers, administrators, economists and fair legal minds. Expect mediocrity at the end of the day
All governments in all countries for all times are mediocre and corrupt.
Mediocrity and corruption are the only two quality products brought to you by the government.
This reply is the only reasonable one. I've been saying this for years. I can never vote because we elect fools based on who is the most popular fool. People, real educated people, are out here....people who can do a good job and turn around these country. But no, Kenyans want the famous fool. Mi siwezi piga kura ii nchi
Time for Omtatah to go to court? We need the prospectus / we need know why a new bond was issued - -mischievously mascarading as a buyback.
Is this "new issue on buyback" likely to be the new future method to borrow?
very informative and solid
@prestozer Yes, that’s the side of the equation we need to work on. How is the money going to be used to increase productivity? We must demand more from our leaders, right from county level
It will be used to repay Eurobond loan taken 10 years. Taking a loan to repay a loan.
Was the question of where the balance of $0.5B will be sourced from answered? And is it still due in June?
Where it will come from is unknown (there is really nowhere for it to come from currently). It is not due in June as the Total $2B debt is retired and replaced with another more expensive instrument (Bond). So you don't owe $500M at 6.75%, you now owe ~$1.6 at ~9.5%. In other words, Kenya is fucked!
I imagine the plan is to repay the USD 0.5B with the KES 70B infra bond of which they actually took KES 240B. If you convert 70B at a rate of 140KES to USD it amounts to the USD 0.5B. So effectively a KES loan at 18.6pc and a USD loan at 9.7pc. So kicking the can down the road at a higher and pray for a miracle.
It's political. This is known as, "Kicking The Can Down The Road"
Your damn right 👍🏿👍
What would you have prefered the government to do?
What did they promise to do ?
@@alexkibe4179 implement austerity measures, cub wasteful spending, Reduce the budget deficits and let's cut our coat according to our cloth.
Waswahili husema ng'ombe hula kwa urefu wa kamba yake.
@@kabuthakabutha9472 reduce budget deficit.. that's a great point.. how do you do that?
I think we should only have Afribond not Eurobond, it is time we strengthen the Africa one currency system and Africa free continental trade.
Agreed
Let's not sweat the small stuff...the question is : where is this new borrowing going to be used? It can't be used to line personal pockets and then Kenyans pay for it
The new borrowing is for settling previous loan
As long as we are doing nothing to improve our balance of payments account, the strength of our shilling will continue to loose value against other currencies.
Well. The market is saying otherwise. I am abroad and the sh gas regained with more than 10 sh against my currency this week
@@alexkibe4179 wait, i mean wait by July
@@alexkibe4179not for long
Well it is a temporary appreciation of the shilling. The dollars which we received are going to pay the eurobond and we will back at the same place of depreciating of the shilling. Until our economy grows stronger
@kukumdogo I think una mix mambo. 😊.. the domestic infrastructure bonds are the ones that made people to move their savings/investments from being in USD to ksh coz sh inalipa more investing in it...
Has Parliament approved any of the loans Govt takes out especially these Eurobonds? When did we as a country decide that it is ok to circumvent checks and balances and take out loans in the name of the sovereign when as a matter of fact is it by law that loans are to fund development activities and not to pay other loans?
Do we even have a parliament? It's a rubber stamp for the president. Our savior is a handful uncompromisable judiciary officers.
"The Eurobond proceeds were meant for general budget support, including funding of infrastructure and repayment of a syndicated loan." (Citizen digital, 2014).
Misappropriation happened there.
Ilikulwa. Uhunye alichukua loan na akakula na Wsr badala ya kuinvest.
That idea is null and void because no way this govt would finance Uhunyes loans
What does the future hold for the generations and the next regime/people who take leadership roles? They should be well informed before campaign seasons while also drafting and making promises through their manifesto! Citizens should also demand this prospectus documents to be gazzetted in accordance with the people's constitution.Good governance, such as accountability and transparency, allows citizens to hold authorities accountable for better development results, since it encourages civic engagement in the policy-making process and increases transparency. Accountability can reduce corruption and other abuses such as wasteful spending, assure compliance with standards and procedures, and improve performance and learning. In addition, accountability requires institutions to justify their results to internal and external monitors and stakeholders and impose sanctions for nonperformance or corrupt behavior.
Those so called international investors are just local wakoras with monies held offshore in Dubai. Si we were told by Charargei that Murkomen got $ 100M from CRBC and banked it in Dubai?
Isnt the revenue side of the eurobnds is longitudinal? We can only realize after 5 yrs / 10 yrs. How do we expect revenues the next day when the roads take 3 years to build ?
We are a good risk
So the immediate former CBK Governor PN was correct😇
It's very different from what's happening. Go back to the info of how it was maintained. Today the exchange rate reacted to market alteration
How is it different?
This man tell us more forex we need economic solution not just trades
This folk should know basic financial risks...when you take a sacco loan and use this cash for a project that is meant to generate some income...unfortunately these sacoo monies fail to actualize the project...it's prudent one to take an "expensive" loan to clear the project that once its ready it will generate some income to pay the expensive loan...in country WSR has opted for taxes...further one can also negotiate a favourable grace/repayment terms....
A classic case of digging deeper into debt to service debt.... anyone with any sense would advise against this except if you honest to yourself that the new debt will CERTAINLY be put to good, proper and productive use!!!
Hello. All major economies are in debt, include the US. Being in debt is not the issue, it’s how use the money is her counts.
@@LikizoB You are right that being in debt is not the issue. But when you start borrowing to pay off a previous debt, you end up sending signals of financial distress and a high risk profile And you end up getting loans with above average interest. That's bad for a fledging economy. If you carefully listen to the guest he stated that Ivory Coast also received a Eurobond loan but they were charged an interest rate significantly lower than Kenya. Even at personal level, avoid seeking loans to pay off old loans. The same principle applies to countries.
@@georgeodhiambo598 your point is fair
@@LikizoB debt for first world countries is not the same as debt for those strong economies. We have no manufacturing, we produce nothing, import almost everything. Crunching debt for us can't be compared to debt in the US
Am not surprised about any Kenya,we complaining about everything and expect
We are talking about reality of where we are.
If you call substantive facts complaints then probably you're comfortable with cognitive ignorance.
Use your brains chirchir
We're in limbo 😢
Call someone from treasury. Why is Ndu so excited when she hears there is a problem 😅😅😅😢😢. Araa.
It's because their is a problem 😂😂
@@kabuthakabutha9472there's no problem yet, you're just fear mongering.
@@kabuthakabutha9472 even if there was. What's so exciting about your country sinking. 🤔 😅. Again, your lack of knowledge doesn't translate to something being bad. Seek information
@@leewythaka8309 there is only one way to know. Hearing from the finance team. However, the changes have stirred the market already
NDU is just a very intelligent African woman who hates corruption and wants the best for Africans.
I changed the dollar at 135 on 15th. This 250 where was it
Tumeuzwa na hatujui,like the last guy said we’re in a plantation na hatujui.🤭🤔🏃🏾♂🫣🤫 cotton plantation 😩
@stove7197 Sure, we can agree to disagree. That’s why this comment section is available to all. Have a good night Sir 😊
In a nutshell, they're throwing us into a deeper hole... more years paying the interests. If all was right the loan would've been repaid in full on June 2024
OMG ...and KK government is now on top of vehicles shouting how the economy has improved....
Kenya the only country where patriotism left longtime ago and negativity is their daily food
I used to be so negative about kenya until I went to other African countries.
Its not so bad here after all.... But it's pretty bad still
Ruto sowed the seeds of negativity during Uhurus time. We are only telling him the truth. He has failed
Impossible to love a mafia thieving country
The word patriotism is what we badly need back
We can be patriots like Americans, but never mess with their economy, 😢@richardochola6382
Erick anakuaga na ujinga sana 😅😅😅😂
😂😂
Its like some people hoped the nation will sink, and now they are hoping to find some issues with the new direction
Aii kwani huoni kama Kuna shida na hii new euro Bond?? The gok has paid the previous 6% and borrowed a new with 18% interest to be paid in only 7years
@kabuthakabutha9472 please edify yourself with information. Separate infrastructure bonds issued domestically and eurobond 3. And the figures... already you got things mixed up
@@kabuthakabutha9472shut up because you don't know what it means 😂😂. what was a shilling to a dollar 7 years ago?
Kujua economics before typing ni kitu poa sana and knowing how to comprehend information, you should try it often.
Wait in june when the pay they Euro bond is payed in Juni
We are COOKED! Akhi Zakayo wewe!
The government is in a cyclic debt and will continue borrowing to fix what's already due. I foresee the country going down the drain if correct intervention measures are not taken soon.
What are correct interventions?
@@alexkibe4179Export more and import less. Reduce cost of production. Pay attention to import substitution industries. Buy Kenya, Build Kenya. Don't overtax. Leave more money in the pockets of the middle class to create jobs. The list of areas for intervention are limitless.
@georgeodhiambo598 has the govt done anything to address what you are saying?
Good move for short-term politics
The worst for long term economics
Good move for short-term politics
The worst for long term economics
Ah, so you guys didn’t listen? We Ghanaians have been warning you several times and are living scapegoats. Why?!
These guys are stealing in our faces, and there's seemingly nothing we can do to stop them. Its is Kenyans who will bear this burden, not the gov't 🤷🏽♂️
Every Nation has a debt. America raises its Debt ceiling every year but they spend the money wisely. Go figure....
Dr. Patrick has really tried to explain what's happening with our economy. Unfortunately the lady seems to have and cast doubts into the happenings. Sometimes it's good to have people who are how about finances and economy. Rather than someone who asks long questions that are quite meaningless.
All I am hearing is wash-wash at a grand scale! Doc is being very economical with the truth.
For many days, usa hiding dollars to support it is valuable in 2024 or restrictions are removed, and now dollars are available for business, and that's why the economy will be back 2024 but the dollar gains it's value by 35 % against kenya shillings
❤
Hii sio Eurobond.
Hii ni money laundering Kenyan style.
Zile pesa waliiba za SGR na za previous Eurobond are being brought into the country for......????
What a coincidence that the infrastructure bond and the Eurobond both happened in the same week and were oversubscribed and by faceless people?
Hii ni money laundering.
Na ndio wanakimbia kupitisha manyumba ndio waweze kutumia hii Dollars to buy themselves houses.
Do not be shocked to find the houses OVERSUBSCRIBED
💯💯💯
This KK government is going to completely mess Kenya's economy. I would advise Kenyans to continue converting Kshs to $s because in 7 years we'll be at over Ksh 250 to the $. But that's my personal opinion and what I'll do.
Ndu’s questions make Zero research and interrupting all the time. Even after the guest answering, she still asks the same questions.
Fix the waste, pilfrage and corruption as reported by the auditor general reports. Otherwise we will not have money to grow the economy to payoff the loan. We will just be running on a tread mill
Waaa ruto ni G akili bro
Suppose that interest of 750b was paid to kenyans in one way or another? That is what Ruto is aiming for. When the NSSF deduction build the savings we need we shall not borrow from outsiders anymore. For once we are going to create rich pensioners in Kenya
I love the discussion you are introducing.
Kagege mentality. No country in the world doesn't have debts including Japan, and US. Even China. So forget that dream of Kenya never borrowing
@unt_folly if you set aside your Asimio thoughts you would understand that the countries you are talking about are lending us from their savings
@@alexkibe4179 No Alex, that's a stupid line of responding to comments. Tulia. How have you profiled the person you are responding to as Azimio person? Do you personally know her? What the person pointed out is that no major economy has gotten to where it is without debts. And it is a fact, whether the debts are domestic or internal.
Yes the countries lending to us are doing so from their savings, but that is not in any way, a logical response to the point that was raised that no country has developed without debts.
Some countries lending to Kenya have a higher debt/GDP ratio than Kenya.
We all borrow from time to time be it at personal or national level. The bigger question is the cost of funds and the return on investment from those funds.
@@unt_folly it’s okay to borrow for development but not to pay salaries that means you are surviving on pomp.
Tulifuliza tukalipa.
the project that have been funded by loan are not able to repay loans. Bad debt
Kenya enemies are very disappointed. Imagine someone sitting behind a mike thinks she as all the answers more than a person who has been employed by government to run this thing for years if not decades.
Kwani governments never fail. Economics is about guesswork. Theories ni mingi sana so you can never be right all the time
I was thinking about the same thing. How would you wish your country to go to ruins so bad, that even when there seems to be some light, you still negative
Remember the "experts" said kenya is in a crisis and will soon default.... I think that's what they have been waiting for
Thats nothing to do with enemies but the truth hurts and thats what kenyans dont want to hear its ashame just give it time you will understand stop yapping is too early to celebrate soon you will understand how white people are using Africa to get rich America will not give money without interest by the time kenya start paying the bond in june you will see how the Dollar will perfom then you will understand everything about Stock market
You cant chest thump and expect everybody to like you@@alexkibe4179
@stove7197 because your point is useless. These loans have been around for decades. Why didn’t you quote the exchange rate that was there in the 80s and 90s as some of this is money owed from then. Probably because your constant state of outrage doesn’t allow for balanced thinking
I fail to understand this government of kenya. If you have dept to pay and we have alot of money in peoples account that was stolen from the government. Why not going china way, take back the graft money and properties by force and pay dept.
Because the stolen money accounts you speak of belong to the same government officials you expect to take it back 😂
I think it was smart to issue a new bond. This has caused the shilling to rally making it cheaper for government to pay back its debts
But it’s very expensive and we don’t know who bought these bonds,china,m7 ,Putin or Qatar.
You’re either joking or are hopelessly ignorant of economics, finance and unfortunately the constitutional requirements for debt borrowing. Hint1: Kenyan debt is denominated in USD so the shilling slightly and temporarily rallying means nothing with respect to the cost of borrowing if it’s paying more/$ than when it originally borrowed the $🤦🏿♂️
@@stove7197Lol, you’re the emotional one here. How is a 20 bob appreciation to the dollar a slight one? If we owed 1 million dollars, it means that instead of owing 160 million last week, we now owe 140 million. I blame our education system for low caliber thinking
@@LikizoB woooii😅….aki kusomea kwa dirisha is harmful to your mental capacity and development. If Kenya owed $1m yesterday before the ksh. appreciation, you unfortunately still owe $1m today after. Again for the slow horses, Kenya debt is denominated in USD, meaning it repays it in USD not ksh. So then, if a decade ago Kenya borrowed $1m and ksh. to USD then was 100 to 1, you’re an idiot if you think that repaying it today at a 140 to 1 rate is worth any celebration. 😂😂
And that’s before we consider that the original debt was borrowed at 6.3% and now it’s essentially being refinanced at what was it 10%? Lmao
Ndu amechoka na hii country yetu 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣. She is so frustrated. Nothing makes sense 🤣🤣🤣🤣
What is this guying talking about? If its a managed forex market then why don't you bring it down to 100 again to the USD???
It is managed and it is not wrong to manage the exchange rate. It is a careful balancing game. If the local currency becomes weak then it ought to lead to higher exports. But if it becomes too strong then our goods and services become too expensive for those other economies.
But for the local market a strong shilling is a blessing for Kenyans. That's how it goes.
@@georgeodhiambo598 Kenya doesn’t export much imports are more.
@@mwendapoleee I didn't state that it exports much. I stated that when the value of the shilling falls then, Kenya's exports become cheaper! Even the country becomes a more attractive tourist destination. That a basic principle that should not attract any debate.
@@georgeodhiambo598to keep you honest you stated “lead to higher exports,” which necessarily does not mean “make exports cheaper.” 😂😂
@@georgeodhiambo598 yes but you’re missing the point that Kenya is not the one doing the “managing” here, it’s the creditors who are lending it and it’s obvious that they consider Kenya both higher credit risk and desperate. Also calling it a “strong shilling” against the dollar is a stretch in relative terms. On the other hand, celebrating a small recovery of the shilling caused primarily not by any positive economic growth parameter e.g. a significant drop in the inflation rate, net exports etc., is foolishness. Kenyans should instead be decrying the driver for this shilling rally…additional debt burden for the sole purpose of settling a prior debt to which no development has ever been tied to, making both debts odious and illegal. It’s like the condemned celebrating a last meal.