CIA spy analyzes Vladimir Putin and the War in Ukraine | Andrew Bustamante and Lex Fridman
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- čas přidán 10. 08. 2022
- Lex Fridman Podcast full episode: • Andrew Bustamante: CIA...
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Andrew Bustamante is a former CIA covert intelligence officer. Check out his work and podcast at everydayspy.com
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At 9:48 you used the term "the whole world". Keep one thing in mind. "The whole World" is not NATO
NATO is a minority in terms of world population
There are very few countries that are directly assisting Russia invading Ukraine. Iran and North Korea. There are a few other countries that are taking advantage of Russia by purchasing oil and resources at a large discount, namely China and India but they are not directly aiding Russia in the war.
@@HyzersGR Maybe you should join some East European and Balkan groups to see what people think of this conflict.
South America does not care and a lot of African countries are on the side of Russia.
And you should do some research what purchasing US from Russia too, not just uranium...
@@HyzersGR Recently, Emanuel Macron threatened to send French troops to Ukraine to fight against Russia. Guess who became the largest buyer of Russian gas in EU this year, overtaking Hungary? That's right, France :) You can threaten Russia very loudly in front of the cameras, but at the same time quietly and without loud statements conduct business with it
NOBODY SAID IT IS!!!!!
Would love to see this guy come back on and reassess the situation
This shows that even qualified guesses are still just guesses. Might as well ask your next Uber/taxi driver for his guess.
I mean the war hasn't ended so he was only wrong about the time we will see in the future if he was wrong about the outcomes
good lex
@@Korher6 exactly, last time I checked...Russia has control pretty much all of eastern Ukraine...timing might be off..but he's pretty much nailed the outcome.
@@vondahe whats your guess ?
"Ukraine is a pawn on the table" ... 100%
This thinking from school of realism got us to the cold war, and multiple pointless conflicts. Ukraine is Ukraine people, and they have right to do with their county whatever they want to.
Define " Ukrainian people ".
@@tatianalyulkin410 everybody who have ability to vote in Ukraine elections.
no "it will become one of the democratic nations that the 21st century is remembered by" despite being wiped off the face of the earth lmao. We've got 75 more years to go, if its remembered it will be because it almost started WWIII
Lol Zelenski is a piece of 🖼️… dude is a good beggar!!! Russia all the way baby!!!
When are you going to interview Col Douglas McGregor or Scott Ritter?
Well, Scott Ritter is a convicted pedo, so I hope never. He literally just got out of prison in the last 10 years for trying to meet up with young girls (like 13 online) over and over and over. It wasn’t like he was 18 and his girlfriend was 16. This was not that long ago. He is no genius and he can’t be sane. I don’t think a lot of people understand this about him, and I don’t trust anything he says anyway. Some people will try to defend him, but the guy was convicted and imprisoned with proof. If I was him, I don’t think I would show my face. He has also been paid by Russia to make commercials. I am not trying to be ugly to you though. I was just looking at comments, and I saw yours and thought I’d give you the heads up!
Great question!! Maybe he doesn't want to hear the truth. They give a better assessment than this man. He is close but not as accurate as Scott Ritter.
When is Lex gonna develop the cajones to interview me? Or the Brotherhood said " no "- once and for all? 🤣
The white supremacist who has been wrong on every single prediction and the convicted sex offender who has been wrong about every single prediction 😂
Where is Scott Ritter and Macgregor? They must be watching kiddie porn , the chosen past time of Ritter .
It makes me so much more hopeful knowing now (3 months later) that the analysis was wrong in a lot of aspects.
Ukraine is literally on life support and on the verge of irreversible collapse and you probably have no idea about the stamina of the Russians historically in wars . The west picked the absolute wrong battle .
@@82boulou How is the weather in Moscow today?
@@micomator 🤣🤣
@@82boulou Ukraine has been on the verge of collapse for about 9 months now, chap...
At least that's what you Russian trolls like to repeat oh so often.
@@82boulou how’s Kherson?
The constant struggle between feelings and logic inside Lex's brain is fascinating.
He's an INFJ mate
@@J7C. And Andrew is definetly a Te user and you see Lex's Fe clash with Andrew's Te a lot during this video
@@zeromath20 Yup! :)
LoL I can see that too
@@zeromath20 i have no idea what you are talking about. can you elaborate?
CIA spy would never say he's a CIA spy >.>
he quit a long time ago
@@archerzzy not been off grid means he was not doing dmg so nobodys after him or they are giving him protection and lives in hideouts,right?say that from the ideea that agent may just mean,middle man for dialog sometimes?
Above all, a CIA agent would never express his political opinion. Let alone talk about democracy and independence. That is completely irrelevant for a CIA agent. 😂
It’s funny reading the comments after 1 year
why
@@SIMONREMISHHumour is subjective
because winter came, and nobody even flinched, not even the Germans
@@lukahitrec2438 Yeah, no one froze to death like the guy predicted. But most people lowered the heating temperature in fear of massive bills. This resulted in mould on walls for many people. Also there was a massive price increase on food and other necessities, making it hard for low income households and pensioners to afford enough food. The gov additionally putting up to 50% tax on necessities like electricity or gasoline, to fund the excessive CO2-neutrality-program and the overburdened welfare-asylum-system, does not help with the situation. People are fed up, society and unity seems far less stable compared to a couple years ago. Election results reflect this as the two major parties (who usually got >40% each in the past 60 years...) now struggle to get more than 25% of the votes. Radical parties (left and right) grew from negligible numbers to double digits. Of course, many bad decisions in the past decade, not just the situation with RUS, added up to that state of things. Still the RUS situation noticeable adds to the destabilization.
This guy is still working for the CIA and he is doing just that what is required of him. Information and misinformation that's all
Can we bring this guy back and ask exactly the same questions now?
Same thing would be said. What do you mean. Russia can easily win this war if they wanted. They’ll win but do not want to destroy the place
@@davidwalker8778 Hahahahhahahahhahahahahhahahahahhahahahhahahahahhahahahhahahahahhah
Hahahhahahahhahahhahahahha
@@davidwalker8778 mate, Russia had to get 400,000 prisoners on the front line. They are losing land to the current counter offensive. They weren't able to take any more land than they took. They failed to take Kyiv. They said the war would take 3 days. Millions of smart young people have left Russia.
Yeah sure, they could just nuke the place but we could always win the war and just nuke Russia first by that analysis.
@@davidwalker8778😂😂😂
@@davidwalker8778🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
“Hearts and minds are a luxury”…One of the realest things I’ve heard in a very long time!
Hearts and minds just sounds utopic and socialist.
It's about practicality.
You can either be practical, be a cult of personality or both.
Disagree. Both Russia and China invest heavily in securing hearts and minds. They do it with a propaganda infrastructure that democracies can't deploy. As a result, both Putin and Xi have broad public support. Hearts and minds are not a luxury, they are a necessity.
It's essential.. not a luxury
His claim that it's a west idea is brain-dead beyond all belief.. all leaders must capture hearts and minds for any sustained control..
He does not appreciate the power and importance of propaganda in delivering hearts and minds while simultaneously being cunts
Putin's approach is Machiavellianism, which means he'll find a way to gain favor later through manipulating his people. He, definitely, doesn't care about winning hearts and minds now.
Actually it’s just a different threshold of the same sentiment that applies to China/Russia etc.
If China feels the need to violently quash rebellion in HK, it’s the same theme at work. It’s just a much higher consequence and intensity version.
You can argue with the term, but the concept applies anywhere where grassroots change or revolution can occur. Which is arguably everywhere.
We have to bring this guy back, grab popcorn, and watch his "assessment" with him.
Amen.
We really should yeah. He was right about 85%. Even the things he got wrong like Odessa he still got right in a sense that it’s a hard target outside of putins reach
he didint got odessa wrong. the war isnt over, the end game of putin has never been kiev but odessa. wait and see@@whiletrue13
how about now?
Ну я взял попкорн 🍿 и хочу сейчас взглянуть на Зеленского, втягивающего последние кокаиновые дорожки перед необратимой капитуляций..
It's so funny to read comments of people who heard this man talk about military strategy, then waited for like 3-6 months, didn't see the results and went ape shit , without realising that they mostly just have proven his point about not needing hearts and minds
Yeah some of them cannot handle the true, soon reality will hit them hard. And only thing there can do this dream on just say everything gonna be fine.
Russia is winning one year later
Lex: hearts and minds matter
Spy: money and energy matter ✅
It’s less than a month and his predictions for Ukraine are laughable. Odessa by September, Moldovan border by the end of the year! Since then Ukraine have surrounded Russia in Kherson and stormed through Kharkiv.
@@lilze only fools who laugh while the war does not yet end and have its true winner as result.
Spy: money and anergy matter (according his ex-boss)
@@mackbedunduk1305 I didn’t say anything about a true winner?? Bustamante said that Russia would have Odessa by fall, that is a laughably shit prediction.
Einstein: energy and space matter 👌
Bro The entire WEST is giving Ukraine tons and tons and tons of weapons, also training and giving them intel 24/7
Does that justify an invasion
Just enough to grind down the Russian army but not enough for Ukraine do a major counter offensive. The US wants Russian stuck in another Afghanistan
@@BubblegumCrash332 more money in it that way for the war machines.
@@gngr2 did the Invasion of Iraq have any justification? The bombing of Belgrade in 1999, the shelling of the Gaza strip...some background and perspective, some accuracy in reporting, raising awareness on the propaganda machine on full steam on both sides, I'd say that guys speaks things that need to be heard.
@@user-og5fc5rt8g yes, if you opposed the invasion of Iraq, as I did, you should oppose putins invasion.
well this aged well
Lol...
It did. Russia has never not been winning. Ukriane is destroyed. They have no one left to fight and no army. One of their most famous mechanized bridgades is now an infantry bridgade cause of all the loses
Lil bro thinks Ukro natsees are winning lmaooo, stop watching CNN buddy boi
Russias winning so he was right
THANK YOU for explaining about lend-lease used in wartime. Virtually no average person in the US is even aware of this!
Joe rogan: talks about DMT all day. Lex: Talks about Putin and Hitler every episode
Joe is a man with daddy issues who seems to have successfully dealt with by the assistance of drugs and Lex has Russian and Jewish roots so it kinda makes sense why they often bring up these topics
When Putin & Hitler took DMT thay had visions of Lex and Joe committing genocide.
No no let’s talk about Leopold and Columbus
Well, Lex is a Loyalist. What do you expect him to do- support Donbass?
@@tatianalyulkin410 He will be banned from utube, if he ever dares. =)
It would be really interesting to see this conversation being had again 6months into the war and reflecting on how the ground has shifted.
try now, 2 months shy but the ground has shifted
It hasn't shifted at all.
@@jo18533 would you please explain what you mean. We're talking war in Ukraine.
@@DedicatedAngler russia is still wiing.ukraine is destroyed and a joke.Only think supporting ukrine is the media propoganda.
@@hende8445 says you
Putin didn't miscalculate anything, you guys wrong 15 days calculation wrong from day one.
Russia Putin never discuss 15 days with the west so the matter of 15 days is west program.
Very little if any of his predictions have come true. I'm not calling him dumb, i'm merely stating that there are more variables than any one human can compute. At the end of the day, the war of attrition stands as just that.
This guys went from talking about things that he’s very well qualified about like spycraft and such, to saying Russia will take Odessa by November… I think he’s stepping outside of what he’s actually qualified to speculate on. I just don’t see that happening. Anyway, I’ll revisit in 3 months and hope I’m right.
thought the same
Yea. Not only Odessa or Nikolaev, but even smoller towns like Bahmut or Avdiivka russian can't take, this war is lost for them.
Agreed. It's like he's read a few headlines from US and Russia news and formed his what seems like a strong opinion from that. Saying the US is putting Ukraine in debt trap is just false, so far anyways. All aid so far was not through Lend-Lease and does not have to be paid back. And to say the Presidents low approval rating shows that Americans don't support US involvement in Ukraine - makes him seem out of touch with everything that's been going on.
There are many other independent analyst looking at this who have been making predictions that have been far more accurate than main stream sources. They agree with this guy, there thoughts are that when this is all over Ukraine will be a small rump state.
The American people are on Ukraines side. I feel like i see 10 Ukrainian flags a day. The only way ukraine looses is if the US withdraws their support. Otherwise western weapons will prevail over Russian weapons like they have over the past 50 years.
Lex: so intelligent yet so naive…
Dlaczego?
Facts don't care about ur feelings
@@bryankowalczyk3982 100%
Especially for someone who originates from that part of the world, very "westernised"
@@viliusmu7849 most people over here are westernised. due to the fact that we reject everything that has to do with russia.
Lex living in MSM, Putin living in Reality
Most of them in comments too.
If Lex won't follow agenda he simply loses the channel ;)
I'd love to hear how this guy feels about his predictions now.
You can tell this guy is a former intelligence officer, his analysis has been proved to be completely wrong, with UKAF counter offensive. He says taking Odeca will be no destruction and street to street fighting, like Mari-U-pol, does he even realise what happened there, it was largely destroyed?
And the fact that he is allowed to go on record is a sign that he never knew much to begin with, meaning they weren't afraid he would leak anything. This guy was probably a toilet cleaner at Langley
When I first saw this clip I thought maybe I was deluded, but the more I thought about it, the more I came to think he's on a payroll nowadays as a mouthpiece. This is stuff they'd push on Russian TV shows.
@@TheEthanOBrien It is. Its almost impressive how little he knows. Especially regarding the development the last 48 hours with the Ukranians kicking ass all over.
Perhaps you mean, he still is and have the job to manipulate citizens.. because the elites are getting exposed, people are waking up (slowly) 💪. Yess Ukraine people know exactly they re leaders are Nazi s just like the most western leaders
Don’t be quick to judge. 😂
People worldwide lost their "hearts and minds" the moment they ran out of toilet paper. God knows what those same people would do if it was food/gas/power at stake. It's most definitely a luxury for those who are at no risk themselves.
My father was in Germany after the war as a photographer. He showed me a film of Hamburg. Or maybe it was Berlin? Anyways, was taken from a plane that flew really low with a speed of a couple of hundred kilometers. That's 130 miles. The movie lasted half an hour and during that half hour there was nothing but ruins. Ruins and ruins and ruins as far as you could see. But people still lived in the ruins. Shops, theaters, cinemas. Schools, factories, busses, trams. Apart from everything being ruins, the city were alive.
People had no heating, very little power, everybody slept in their cellars.
And still they were completely unbroken. Everyone had believed in German victory until the very day they surrendered. And even those who understood the war was lost, still were determined to fight on.
That is why I don't believe the Europeans will give in even if Putin turn the gas of completely. It will just make them angrier.
that's a really good point, I really worry about what will happen if something actually serious happened
Almost every male in my family works for power companies in some capacity. Many of them are lineman, dispatchers, IT professionals, etc.
All I'm going to say is that you have no idea how susceptible our grid really is and if we faced a determined adversary we could have some really serious issues. That said I think people and indeed society are stronger than we give them credit for. I know the world is strange in this futuristic year of 2022, but I still believe in the soul of mankind and I believe we would come together in the event of a real emergency or attack against us.
@@beardly0121 Yes, our leaders and especially the leaders of our enemies, who tend to despise us, tend to expect us to break easily.
But that didn't happen during the blitz in London or not even in the much, much worse blitz by the allied on Germany. Didn't happen in Saint Petersburg or Stalingrad either. Didn't happen in Tokyo or any of the other large Japanese cities. When people do give up, is when they understand they really have no chance and their enemy can just pour it on forever. But if they believe they have even a small chance, they will "take it on the chin".
Oh thanks for saying that. I've been trying to make this point for years, even before the pandemic. Ppl have very little perspective on how the rest of the world lives, now and historically... We RARELY ever see times of peace with so many human rights and resources available to us.
"I don't know how such deep corruption can yield such good results"
Dude forgot what his high school teacher said: You got the right answer using the wrong premises
Do a follow up interview now
Despite his frequent use of the word "empirically,", Mr Bustamante's opinions might be more compelling if he actually understood the scale of the aid that the US has approved for Ukraine -- or if he understood how the "Lend Lease" program actually worked for the UK (and other countries such as Russia) during the Second World War.
He claims broadly that the US is not committing much in terms of its wealth to Ukraine when that simply is not true - if you count all aid, humanitarian, administrative and military, just this year (according to Congressional Budget Office, et al.) it nearly amounts to a staggering .3% of the United States' GDP. In absolute dollars, the US has contributed more than double all of the aid provided by the rest of the world to Ukraine, combined. By domestic comparison, it has contributed in six months pretty close to what it spends on all public housing in the US for the entirety of 2022. And most of this is not part of a lend-lease program - most of it is just pure foreign grants-in-aid.
One other way of putting the amount of aid that the US has so far allocated to Ukraine into perspective is to simply compare it to the size of Russia's total annual military spend. It is generally accepted that Russia has the fourth largest budget allocated to defense of any nation in the world (after the US, China and India); estimates for this year range from US$61 billion to US$65 billion. Through May of this year, the US had approved more than US$54 billion to Ukraine, and if you count all forms of aid expected to be allocated to Ukraine by year's end, that number is conservatively expected to be closer to US$60 billion by the end of 2022. So the US, alone, is providing aid to Ukraine that rivals that of Russia's full defense spending for the same year.
Want a little more perspective on the United States' commitment to Ukraine? The US has committed to provide aid to Ukraine that will likely be in the same rough range as the 2022 military defense budgets of Israel, Turkey and Iran -- combined(!).
Also, Mr Bustamante either doesn't know how lend-lease worked during WW II -- or he is being intentionally disingenuous. The US provided the UK via lend-lease over $30 billion in goods and services; however, it ultimately accepted repayment of only a bit more than $1 billion from the UK for these items, and that was paid back over time. So that means that the US discounted and made a complete gift of 95-97% of the lend-lease aid it provided to the UK. The US hardly 'drowned' the UK in debt. We stepped in and gave them (and other allies) what they needed during one of their darkest hours. Lend-lease was just Roosevelt's way of getting items to Churchill (and other leaders) quickly while skirting around budgetary objections in Congress via the fig leaf that the US would be paid back later.
I honor Mr Bustamante's previous military and CIA service, but perhaps he should review the hard facts again on several of the opinions he offered. But if his other opinions on "Russia winning" are like his opinions about the nature and scale of US aid to Ukraine now, or to the UK during WWII, it is hard not to think that his opinions are based more on conjecture and personal opinion than anything "empirical."
Thank you for this very insightful comment
This was a very good comment
Preach!!
Also, Europe, especially the Baltics and the rest of Eastern Europe are very much interested in helping Ukraine, no matter the cost.
I couldn't have said it any better
The CIA guy kept saying he had all these data points, seemed kind of vague about them to me though. Also I think pessimism may seem like critical thinking but I think it's a trap a lot of intellectuals fall into because it often seems like a negative outcome is a safer thing to bet on, whenever something good happens it's usually a surprise and no one saw it coming. I think many people have a tendency to magnify on the worst elements of our nature and overemphasis those traits, when in reality people are much more complicated and dynamic then that, and things can change very quickly and without warning.
You're absolutely right. Cynicism easily passes as intellectualism.
Andrew's full of it, the "data points" he actually shares are mostly incorrect or prove the opposite of what he's saying. He also claims the Russians will conquer Odesa without artillery before the fall out of nowhere, then says there's only a 60% chance Russia will win the war, and hey, "winning" takes many forms, and anyway, in his mind, they're already winning right now! So I guess he's just covering his bases. 😂
@@PBz0r If he took a billion dollars from the taxpayers and gave it to drug dealers in Venezuela during the interview he would actually be the full embodiment of the CIA and their capabilities lmfao.
This ex-CIA schmuck (Andrew) is so uninformed about Ukraine-Russia situation I’m ecstatic he’s out of CIA - his lack of in-depth research & generalization.
Like, at every step of analysis.
It is only eclipsed by Lex’s “I float in clouds” blind optimism.
@SlimJimLim I'm actually curious what are the data points that look like a Russian victory is immanent. With the aid of the US, insurgents kept the Russian's busy for years in Afghanistan before the Russian's finally decided cut their loses and leave. So far Russia has sustained massive casualties in Ukraine when you compare the two conflicts, also Putin already has a shortage of professional troops because he doesn't want to call this an actual war which would allow him to begin mass conscription. If he is backed into a corner and decides that he has to reclassify this into an real war so that he can get the man power he may need very soon that could be politically very dangerous for him. The Russian people are going along with him now, but once he starts sending Russian sons to go die in a conflict the Russian people don't fully understand that could begin to create factures in his grip on power.
This guy would run laps around you mentally. He understands power in every form and I would listen to what he has to say
The Russian invasion was a miscalculation in that Putin expected Ukraine to come to the negotiation table and give up the pursuit of NATO membership. However, Ukraine reacted irresponsibly and refused to sign a peace agreement with Russia in April 2022. To be fair, Boris Johnson convinced Zelensky not to sign the agreement and keep fighting.
General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, an US-American, recommendes in September 2022 negotiation with Russia - Russia was then rather down.
Andrew Bustamante is a typical CIA-Agent, I mean. Intelligent Services as CIA had to collect all real information available, to be good advisers to their president - they should not make their own politics, neither sould they support the Democrats, as they usually do, nore should the be agents for the republicans or the MIC.
Russia, the USSR and the Russian Federation of today could never feed the people - till the sanctions of the West because of annexion of Crimea. This "punishment" was a booster for the russian agriculture and the Russian Federation changed from worlds greatest importer of grain to one of the two most exporters of grain. The other one is - or was - Ukraine. Except Spain nobody in Europe will have grain from Ukraine - farmers protests heavily and even with violence against cheap Imports from Ukraine as decided in Bruxelles (EU).
Selensyj may have won the opportunistic speeches of the Western leaders and politicians. The hearts of the normal European he cannot win with his extreme Russophobia, his ban of Russian culture and language back to the 9th century. As a Swiss I am nore for Ukraine nore for Russia, but when I were forced to choose, my heart would go to Russia. The ocean of Ukrainian Flags all over Europe are promoted, one can say decreed by the officials.
Switzerland is a very small country, that faught since the middle age till the Vienna Congress for freedom without any help of a superpower. Inner resistiance against Napoleons occupying troups drove France out of the coutry without a greater war. God helps those, who can help themselves.
Ukraine is a democracy with Western values? That narrative may be believed in the USA - but not in Europe. Not by the most average European citizen (if educated and informed to some degree.).
Thank you. Excellent interview….very objective.
The America on which we Americans, born before 1980, base our National pride on is so far past we cannot even see it in the rear-view mirror anymore.
This ex-CIA schmuck (Andrew) is so uninformed about Ukraine-Russia situation I’m ecstatic he’s out of CIA - his lack of in-depth research & generalization.
Like, at every step of analysis.
It is only eclipsed by Lex’s “I float in clouds” blind optimism.
* your america in which you based your national pride on is far past.
You grew up during the cold war. Propaganda on every page about the good capitalist v the evil communists. So I can imagine why national pride was high.
I hear & feel you comrade
America had a very real & tangible strength in ourselves. Nowadays it is a Shitshow and we lost whatever it was we had. When the jobs went overseas we were a different America than now.
Born before 1980, met many many good people born after who have fought for and loved this country as much as the generations before them.
🍏🍏**We have become a medieval feudal society where the ultra wealthy are at the top**, and varying levels of peasants labor under them.
The peasants live paycheck to paycheck and are distracted by the political theater that is encouraged by the elites. The elites like to keep the peasants divided and in a constant state of gridlock.
I don't understand what Bustamante is basing his assessment on. The Russian advance is pretty much a crawl, and this is without having to siege major cities such as Odessa. I do not see how they could conquer the south all the way up to and including Odessa in basically 2-3 months.
Furthermore, Odessa itself is way better fortified than Mariupol. And by the way, the ONLY way Russians were able to take Mariupol was by essentially bombing it to the point where it's a smoldering ruin. If, as Bustamante says, they wouldn't use that strategy in Odessa then I truly don't see how he expects them to conquer the city.
I also don't think the support given to Ukraine is NOTHING. I agree that the support could be much better, but it IS making a difference. Even the power to hit Russian bases, supply depots and so on at a distance behind the frontline is an amazing advantage to have. Not to mention whatever that hit in Crimea was, not even sure how Ukrainians accomplished that exactly but it looks like they took out a bunch of Russian airplanes on the ground.
When Bustamante says there's no economic benefit to the West to support Ukraine I think he's extremely wrong. I get the argument about the US, a country sitting an ocean away from the conflict. However, if Putin is allowed to win in Ukraine he will not stop and proceed to exert military control over Moldova and, if necessary Belarus thus becoming considerably stronger and more dangerous over time. This would directly imperil EU member countries as they will now share a direct and large frontier with Russia as well as suffer the consequences of waves upon waves of refugees from all those battlefields.
They don't have to take Odessa its enough to take the shore around the city or more specifically north and south.
its called war of attrition
As an American I have always thought Zelensky is a weasel. I have never been for Ukraine...
Come back and do another analysis at this time I think the situation now is totally f***** up in Ukraine but I would love to see this gentleman's analysis on the present situation
One year later. He was totally right LOL
I'm sorry but this guy present some incoherence between several points (the winning part: all depends on what the initial goals were. If they failed, there's no winning. If we just talk about territorial gains, in that case Russia wins, but does this mean Russia will be able to occuppy such a large portion of Ukraine ? I strongly doubt it if we look at what happened in the Donbass region after 2014. But anyway, this is not the end of story, the war is not over. The lend lease act during WWII was exponential as well, meaning slow at the beggining and fast and decisive at the end) and especially doesn't seem to understand what happened in the European Union since the invasion of Ukraine. The only way for Germany to be again supplied with fossil fuels from Russia is that Putin must win. This doesn't make sense. Although we can surely say that Germany was in the first place reluctant for many explainable reasons to not be able to fully supply Ukraine with military equipment, the only way Putin would be left to win, followed by negociations, would be a regime change in one of the major countries in the EU, in France it would be with the far right or far left taking the power; they are pro Putin. Or in Germany, with a collapse of the coalition. At this moment, after the many massacres in Ukraine, the way things are now it is quasi impossible to go backwards and talk to Putin like nothing happened to make an agreement and let Ukraine loose a large part of the country. And even in this case, except Russia of course, the only country that can really decide whether this war has to stop or not it is the USA. They are the only country to be able to supply Ukrain with such a large amount of military equipment. No other country can do that. This means that Germany will do what the USA tell them to do.
And I can add, that still on the political level if one of the major western countries in the EU, had today the idea to make an arrangement with Putin in th back of Zelensky, I can tell you it would be the end of the EU, and therefore the end of german economic power. The east and west europeans within the EU would just break up on that point due to the history towards Russia of their respective countries.
this man is very quick witted but, perhaps as a consequence, the sum of what he is saying lacks coherence, in my opinion.
It's not about military equipment, once the money stops flowing to Ukraine the end of war will be near. Initial goals were clear from the start: demilitarization (neutralizing Ukrainian armed forces) and denazification (removing right-winger loonies from governing structures).
Interview guy is like: "No way Putin can take control of the south, he would need to butcher countess civilians who will fight to the death. There would be a bajillion war crimes!"
CIA guy is like: "Yes. And?"
It's like that Anakin/Padme meme...
Lex: But Ukraine is gonna win, right? Andrew: .............
Lex: Right?
And it's not gonna happen by Fall. Impossible prediction.
Russia is taking it by force they're not worried about what people think
@@WinstonSmithGPT well as a Russian I can say that the propaganda in Russia and the way it’s embedded within that culture is in a different level. And the big difference between western and Russian propaganda is that here in the west we HAVE THE CHOice to choose whatever sources of info seem best to us. Not the case there for most people, and the penalty for speaking out against the government or the war etc is getting steeper by the day. But for the Russian people, that’s just normal.
@@fartnutssupreme4930 In addition to the choice - not all propaganda are lies. There's positive propaganda where you convince that your way is better (Taylor, Journalism Studies, Volume 3, Number 3, 2002, pp. 437-452 for those interested). It's basically about convincing a population under repression AND propaganda that there's a better way. For that you need positive propaganda to counter the propaganda of the oppressor.
Conclusion: western media point of view may be pro Ukraine, but it's not necessary biased or nefarious.
Andys prediction that Ukraine would fall by autumn 2022 was incorrect; as was his prediction Ukraine would fall within 14 days - however good his analysis is he’s not infallible.
Thanks for sharing 🤙
Haven't watched the entire video, but the lend lease act doesn't put Ukraine into debt - If something is destroyed, it's automatically written off, after the war Ukraine can return all the equipment that is not destroyed OR they can buy it from USA, which is a lot different than putting a country into debt.
To this I would add, what is this debt in comparison of a partially destroyed Ukraine or even worse a country taken over, occupied and colonized by Russia again for many decades with all what that implies regarding the population, freedom, economy, etc ? To me, this part is laughable. And actually seems even quite weird at many levels that kind of consideration comes from a former CIA spy.
If Russia wins do they have an obligation to return the gear/pay the debt Ukraine accumulated?
@@Salvara Unfortunately I don't know that part, never even thought of that
It took the Brits paying back the land-lease 65 years and you saying they just had to return the tanks to avoid it? You are so funny. Please take a look at the current 54bn loan's structure, how much of that is for weapons and for what else ukraine needs to pay for. Eye opening stuff.
@@coderentity2079 Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. Please read about the lend lease act.
"The terms of the agreement provided that the materiel was to be used until returned or destroyed. (...) Supplies that arrived after the termination date were sold to the United Kingdom at a large discount"
"The Lend-Lease agreements with 30 countries provided for repayment not in terms of money or returned goods, but in "joint action directed towards the creation of a liberalized international economic order in the postwar world.""
"Britain wished to retain some of this equipment in the immediate post-war period. In 1946, the post-war Anglo-American loan further indebted Britain to the U.S. Lend-Lease items retained were sold to Britain at 10% of nominal value"
The debt Britain paid was exactly for keeping the items and that was a new loan, which was set to be paid over 50 years, not that they needed that much time. And it was paid off in 2006, just as agreed, instead of 2020
Odessa by fall is a very bold prediction which is nearly impossible
Signing off to go to a channel where I actually respect somebody that I can see is knowledgeable
His prediction of Odesa falling to the russians before the fall is a little weird if he knows Ukrainian geography. They have been trying to take Mykolayiv for over 4 months now and are struggling to supply even Kherson. Keep in mind the fall is one month away and in between Mykolayiv and Odesa there are so many more natural obstacles, so many more weapons will be delivered (not only from the US) and so many more supply lines will have been cut. What he's also neglecting is the help Ukraine gets from Europe. Literal fighter jets are being given to them and Andrew should know this because it's being done unofficially. None of what they have received by now was lend lease so once that starts to kick in, winter will be there and the russians will have an even worse chance of making major tactical progress.
Nope you are wrong. If you look like at the tactic. Russia is not trying to take Mykolayiv now , they are harming it to destroy all Ukraine capabilities to host BTG, and ammunition while trying to pinpoint another way to the front. It’s called operative art. They are keeping Ukraine busy around Mykolayiv and Kharkiv this way while focusing ont something else. They are using the same tactics with Odessa. Now that doesn’t mean that they wont try to take Odessa or Mykolayiv or Kharkiv or Odessa. What you don’t know is , Weapons are no longer flowing into Ukraine as it was in the beginning. The whole western people are running out of ammunition and you are talking about winter like Winter has never been on the side of the Russians. How would the Russians struggle in winter. You need to know that this is a war of attrition. Sooner or late a party has to come to the table and negotiate. US cannot fight this Hybrid war indefinitely against Russia, same as Russia. Ukraine has lost the territories so they will have to make concession. If you think the lend lease is to send more weapons to Ukraine then you don’t know how it works under the table. The budget set is for the US to replenish the weapons delivered to Ukraine
Thats exactly what i thought
Even if the russians make progress towards mykolaiv, taking the city is a whole different thing though. Especially with all the bridges in front of Kherson beeing destroyed, which makes the supply of heavy equipment needed for that push close to impossible
Yep. His predictions will fail. Russia is not winning
I was writing this on another thread. Dude has such an interesting interview and then he gives this prediction saying the "Russia is empirically winning," and I'm like, lolwut?
@@ah-lt4lj but they are though ? Or is Ukraine winning ??
The first question that I would like to ask is, what is the accuracy rate of the guest's data analysis of past conflicts? How many times has his analysis been correct?
all of them
Aged like milk
@@diondowney1466 How?
Wahaahhhaahahaha, exactly!! Really poor assessment (just reviewed it). Not sure if this chap was a field officer or an analyst. Either/or, his AO was South America or suchlike, definitely not CEE, and a Slavonic expert he is most certainly not.
Excellent interview, especially in light of the Tucker Putin interview. Can you schedule another interview to update your audience relative to the Putin interview in contrast to this interview and to assess where things may be headed. I wish I would’ve seen this before the Tucker, Putin interview. Thanks again. Keep up the good work and the dialogues open and going.
This didn't age well... Odessa is still free.
The front line has largely stalled and this guy thinks they are going to take Odessa by fall with more advanced weapons continuing making their way into Ukrainian hands. Seems highly unlikely.
It hasn't largely stalled. You have a false impression of the situation, the Russian army is not concerned with taking land as fast as possible, it's trying to eliminate the enemy force before gaining territory in a battle of attrition. Weapons delivery to Ukraine is making a very negligible impact on the battlefield.
@@eauegh7660 yes it has, I’d recommend watching a few videos about the war by Anders Puck Nielsen
@@eauegh7660 not sure if I'd call the damage from Himars and other western missile systems "negligible" but keep telling yourself that.
@@eauegh7660 russia is bombing civilian cities lol. Wtf are you smoking. They’re doing the scorched earth strategy with no actual battle planning.
I agree that taking Odesa is unlikely at all. Taking Odesa by fall is laughable. I will get back to those comments in fall to prove
I like how he analyzes things and yet all his “assessments” and predictions are wrong….. I don’t know what to say 😂
How are they wrong?
@@jo18533bc they’re wrong. he said things would happen by the fall. it’s the winter and those things haven’t happened.
@@MichaelJordan-fp4ih such as..? I mean, do you honestly think Ukraine, even with all the money and equipment it gets from the West, can defeat Russia??
that's why he left CIA too early
Agreed. Really poor assessment (just reviewed it). Not sure if this chap was a field officer or an analyst. Either/or, his AO was South America or suchlike, definitely not CEE, and a Slavonic expert he is not.
The US is lending money to Ukraine? I thought they were giving it to them? The US media doesn't say that. Where does he get that?
He's full of crap. They're just barely starting to do this now
Thanks 🙏
"There's no support from the West to Ukraine"
How in the hell can someone say those words with a straight face? Whether you think the support is good or bad, denying it is simply an act of ignorance or dishonesty.
US Marines landing in Normandy or Sicily and fighting to Berlin is SUPPORT.
Will US / NATO troops land in Odessa and fight to Moscow or even Kiev? ... NO
There is a easy way to provide your point - how many Dollars where sent with no questions asked? If this is a charity sum it's is.
I would have to say he probably still represents the US government to some degree. So saying the west is actively helping ukraine is admitting the US is involved in helping Ukraine fight Russia and that can be taken as a act of aggression possibly leading to direct conflict between the US and Russia. Long story short he cant speak freely and has to choose what he says wisely because his words carry more weight then a normal citizen when talking about what the us government is doing.
Just a guess I could be wrong
@@Jimbo_Swaggins huh? The US admits it. Biden continues to make it a campaign narrative about how much he and other figures “support Ukraine.” It’s not a secret.
It's early October 2022. Just wanted to hear this guy comments on his prediction back in August that "by this fall Russia will take Odesa". Not exactly what is happening, is not it?
They're progressing in the East but the South/Odessa is not happening.
I would like to see revisit to this video from this span of time and developments.
Skepticism is the worst enemy of success.
Haha, armchair military analyst gets it badly wrong! How unexpected 🤣🤣🤣
Lol! He's badly right and you can't handle the truth
@@markdaniels4178 🤨 This is the level of intellect that gets impressed by these guys, empty headed muppets.
He might be wrong in details. But he is right in main assesment: Russia is wining
Watching this guy from the future kills the credibility of his assessment with every minute
Just wait for the Counter offensive. I am from the future and the Ukrainians have cross the Dnipro River as of the April 24th. It has begun.
how? Russia is still winning
@@RSVPrr sure :D
@@RSVPrr lol russia is wining a meter a day!!!! in 2085 they'll have the whole of ukraine!
Still think Ukraine is going to win? Without NATO weapons, Ukraine would have been done 6 months in
Beautiful conversation
Update please
3:55 Ehh.. Goergia is a country of four million. Ukraine has ten times as many. One major discrapancy no intelligence would miss. There was no miscalculation. There certainly is a missing puzzle of information to have a complete picture. What can be said for sure, Putin was running out of time. Ukraine was drifting ever closer to the west, and out of Putins reach. I strongly believe this is all there is to it. Whether the war will go well for Russia, or not was secondary. The geostrategical importance of Ukraine (for Russia) can't be highlighted enough. Putin doesn't care about Sweden and Finland joining Nato in the bigger picture.
Why did Russia never act wen the Baltics joint you think. I mean if Russia is anxious to have a NATO member at their door what about 3?
@@ikkezelf599, Baltics are also in EU and are actually in first hand controlled by EU, not by NATO. Baltics will do whatever EU is telling them to do. And will never do anything that EU do not want them to. And EU do not want any big crisis with Russia. Or actually any crisis at all. US an UK want, yes, but not EU. So it is in EU's interest that Baltics would not be any big threat to Russia. In differens from Ukraine which is controlled by US who is most interested in instability in that region. That's why Russia do not really care about Baltics nor Sweden or Finland.
but they did it to ukraine and it did work once, thats the point. Just didnt wok this time.
@@ikkezelf599 Those Baltic countries didn't join when Mr Putin was in power. The USSR was imploding and they had bigger fish to fry, even they must have hated it
I do not believe that Russia is really afraid of the former East block nations. What he want is the old empire back. The Russian Empire. Just look at the guards uniforms and the general decor of the interior of Kreml. The soldiers look like Disneys toysoldiers.
I’m Polish working in western Ukraine now as a journalist.
This guy says a lot of things that reveal his cluelessness about the real situation in Ukraine.
He predicts that Russia will take Odessa by the fall. It’s the end of august now, and the frontline has been stalled for 6 weeks or so.
He says that Ukraine is receiving almost nothing from the West, but will pay trillions of dollars (!!!) for the weapons it is receiving now. Don’t you see the contradiction here?
In reality, Ukraine hasn’t yet received anything under Land lease act that he’s referring to. The weapons in amount of ~15 billion dollars were supplied as an “aid”.
He says Russia will occupy the South and East of Ukraine, while Zelensky will have to step down because he was too much anti Russian, so he will be substituted by some pro-Russian puppet president. How can you imagine that without occupying the whole country? Nobody in Ukraine will voluntarily agree on a pro Russian president. That’s how things work.
He says “Putin will not use artillery to shell Odessa, because historic heritage of Odessa is important for russian culture, so Russians will just come to each house and kill everyone without damaging buildings, just like they did in Mariupol”. That’s a whole new level of cluelessness. Mariupol was bombed and shelled like no other city in Ukraine, 90% of buildings were destroyed. Historic heritage, russian culture, are you serious?
He says “Ukraine has a chance to win if oligarchs in Russia organize a coup”. It’s a 1990s stereotype about Russian oligarchs. They have zero influence in todays Russia. If somebody can organize a coup, it’s only the Russian security services.
He says that Russia desperately needs Ukrainian agriculture, and that’s the economic interest of this war. Well, the whole Ukrainian agricultural export revenue is about 10-12 billion dollars per year, while Russia has already lost ~350 billion dollars only in frozen Central bank reserves. It’s crazy to believe that this war can be in any way economically beneficial for Russia. Dude, just take a calculator and do a cold calculation, like you say you do.
And finally, the guy says that information warfare in English is intended to influence English speaking Russians. What a BS. There are just several million of Russians who speak English, nobody cares about them because they decide nothing both in Russia and in the West.
Great post! Andrew must be either completely clueless or a bought and paid for Russian shill. I'm guessing just clueless.
I think he was proven far more right than you.
@@rg7535yeah, russia took Odessa just so fast and effective and… of no, it fucking didn’t. It didn’t take anything since than in fact. How in your brain is this guy more right than the commentator?
@@fedirshu3882 No, they didn’t take Odessa but they did hold on to all the land they had taken in the South and East of the country, and crippled the Ukrainians, which is the essence of what he was saying, and the opposite of what the msm prognosticated.
Its December now. How is Ukraine doing now?
6:11 turns to be wrong. Russia said no for grain deal and . . . lost 20% of it's fleet on the Black sea. Then retreat, not able to stop that trade route.
Around 12:30 he starts talking about information war and probably doesnt recognize that he was susceptiable to that himself regaeding "taking odessa by the fall"
It's funny how a person can be so convincing and so wrong at the same time, taking Odessa by fall, sure, Russia is winning, right, I guess it's such a special sort of victory we are not able to compehend
I love the contrast between Andrews perspective and the perspective of Lex. 30:17.
I agree with Andrew that one should leave the USA. I left the USA in 2006 and my life has been much BETTER and FREER. Better social connection, lower cost of living, more fun, friendlier girls, better dating life, better social life, better mental health, etc. Most expats who leave America never want to come back. That should speak volumes!
Even though I don't fully agree with him, this man is obviously very smart
No, he is an idiot. Read and analyze what he actually says. Take each of his arguments and write them down and when you do that, it will become glaringly clear that his arguments contradicts each other.
is he? he's forceful in the things he says which implies confidence. His points rang false or weirdly uninformed. I don't know this guy, but I don't trust his analysis.
Anybody can win a war when you keep redefining what winning a war means.
The definition of war has evolved alongside of our technological evolution. No particular entity redefined what it means
But the definition given in the video wasn't a definition from Russia, it was a definition based on what he thinks it takes for Russia to win and not what Russia says it needs to win. He gave a good explanation of why he thinks that way and if Russia would back down and say something like they don't need Luhansk or the south for whatever reason, im sure he wouldn't argue that russia is still winning even if they claimed they did.
The USAF and newer analyst perspective might actually be that fighting doesn't matter. It stinks of cluelessness. That economics and politics are important and that force underwrites those is pretty clear to anyone not believing in post scarcity thinking
He lost me at Russia taking Odesa.
Winning a war has nothing to do with the fighting. As he said, its control of supply chains and Russia is winning hands down there. It would be quite easy for Russia to destroy Ukraine, but that's not what they're after.
Note he said a bunch of factions but doesn’t say they are all Nazi ideologie based factions
This gentleman got it wrong with his first assessment, the reason Russia didn't take Kiev at the beginning of the war is because Russia agreed to retreat their troops while they were working on an agreement which now we all know it was a trick by ukranazis to make Russian troops retreat, it was not a Russian defeat.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
With geniuses like this in our intelligence services what could go wrong?
probably nothing, but having people ignoring the truth because itll hurt their fragile feelings will create quite a damage
I take your comment to mean that you think he is an idiot? He really is. He claims to be a spy, walking around with a t-shirt: "I am spy". Really not very discreet.
@@peterrumspringa9757 He's retired lol.
First I was a CIA contractor and let me just tell you being in the CIA doesn't make you an expert on all international issues, i doubt this guy was ever in Russia. This guy is way off base, how has Russia won anything? 40k dead 1/3 of it's equipment destroyed embarrassing blows against it's navy and top generals, a new 800 mile border with NATO in Finland. Take Odessa by the Fall? lmao they are about to lose Kherson if anything. If oil prices continue to fall their economy will also be in real trouble, selling all that discounted oil to china and india won't be feasible anymore. So is Ukraine winning the war? probably not a clear victory but Russia isn't winning either.
@@paulzoom489 Yes, I totally agree. He is way of base. Actually, I think he gives the word "wrong" a new and deeper meaning. I simply cannot understand why so many answers praised his analysis.
Maybe because people do not consider what was actually said, and just notes how it was said.
This didn't age well...
Meh, Russia will reconquer it within a short amount of time.
@@goedel. My prediction russia is done, like state i mean.
Your comment didnt age well
@@eachday5705 you prediction is silly lol, russia is doing better than ever
It did 😂
I don't know a single German worried about the Russian gas issue...
This guy is off his rocker. Their is no provision in this aid package to Ukraine that hamstrings them with the Lend Least Act. This military and economic aid is for the benefit of not only Ukraine, but, just as important, the United States of America. We , as Americans know that if we don't stop Russia's hegemony at the waters edge, the their next invasion could be into a NATO country such as Poland or one of the Baltic States. Then, what are we going to do,sit around debating whether should retaliate full force militarily. No, Russia's military aggression must end where it started and that's Ukraine.
It appears that Andrew's "assessments and calculus" of the Ukraine invasion comes off too smelling of his personal political beliefs rather than actual empirical data that he keeps trying to claim he is going off of.
I think that he has a professional deformation that leads him to the biggest mistake of every side of the conflict - hugely overestimating Russians, and state of their army/weapons. He is so deep into the rabbit hole he actually believes Russia is playing some bigger game here. Dude drops the ball the moment he tries to claim that reassessing a grand war plan 3 times is totally fine for an army and Russians have it under control. You have no idea how much bribery is going on right now to sound those opinions, he either fell for them because for years he has been afraid of russians professionally, or he's straight paid/blackmailed to say those things. Every time I question somebody's opinion I remember the quote that "Propaganda is designed to put doubt into minds" and his 'opinion' does sound like that, I'd like to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he's doing it unconsciously/without malice.
he did give the ukes a 20% chance to win. that seems about right to me.
@@peetky8645 Assigning such a chance, or any chance is clowning. What does %20 mean?... If they fight 5 times, Ukraine wins?
@@cagribaba4464 No that means every time they fight there is still a 20% chance.
Dear Lex, I know how you feel. I am originally from ex-Soviet Georgia, and despite living through the devastating consequences brought by Russian government against Georgia's independence in the 90s, when I left for the United States I brought with me a novel by Dostoevsky. The thing that I could read it in Russian was priceless to me. What's happening in Ukraine is absolutely heartbreaking! And unfortunately, Mr. Bustamante's assessment is eye opening. And it really hurts. But I always relied on the power of literature, music and visual arts. I identify as a student of the Tibetan Buddhism, just to give you some pointers about my personality. I love your podcasts, Lex, because I see them as your spiritual work, and you are kindly sharing it with us. You are such a good kid, Lex. (I allow myself to call you a "kid" because I am probably your mom's age, and I've came from the same world. I could be your "aunt from Tbilisi" 😊). I find your interviews very inspiring. For the first time in my life I am interested in becoming an engineer, or a physicist, or a spy...in my next life, maybe...I think I am just fascinated by the beauty of the messages coming from your podcasts regardless of people's specialties and backgrounds. I love you, Lex. Thank you for everything!
Hippie 😂😂😂 Z Z Z 🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺
She’s a Russian spy! She even said it! 🥸
@@fidder06 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
@@mbuckholz more like 🇷🇺🇺🇸 .... we are taking the East and South. And you guys are taking the West and North by putting it in debt for the next 100 years 😂
@@kiksi96 გმადლობთ, გიორგი!
❤ this interview
Lex.... you might want to search what's the Azov battalion, who's Bandera and check the comments Ukranian hosts were making in live national TV saying the people in Donbass should leave and that they were not Ukranian back before the Maidan, this is not new, if you check all that saying it's Na-zi it's not that far fetched.
Seems like an interesting guy, but thinking the same as a lot of comments. I didn't comment about my disagreement because I figured, "hey what do I know, he's in the CIA, I'm not." Glad that others here are thinking that he seems at least half way wrong.
I was under the assumption all CIA know how to do is sabotage and start wars. Didn't know CIA agent's had military or battle experience at all lol. I wouldnt take this guys explanation of this war seriously. Looks like he sits at office all day at the CIA lol.
So you feel the fact that some random people on the internet support your narrative is a good sign that you are right and the intelligence trained dude is wrong? Seems like this western propaganda he talks about is working quite well with the average population. You ever noticed how there is only ever severe russian losses in the news? Ukraine mysteriously never seem to loose a single tank in this war, at least i have never seen coverage of any losses, only massacred civilians in the streets due to russians. How have they not taken back their country yet without any meaningful losses? Man it just is like..we don't get the full picture through our news, but hey what do I know.
@@yedoin You couldn't be more wrong. Still feel like, "hey what do I know". Still giving this guy his credit due. Just surprised that others that thought the same would actually post it knowing full well that there would be some keyboard warrior like yourself waiting in the weeds to bestow your knowledge on the rest of us dullards.
You decide on truth by counting other's opinions? Do you gather reasoning or just using sheep mentality straight up? Counter argue please.
@@coderentity2079 you obviously didn't read my reply to @yedoin. Or maybe you did but wanted to follow him along. Thanks for participating.
The certainty with which this man passes his opinions as fact is obnoxious
More obnoxious than the opinion of a youtube rando? Shut up and keep your thoughts to yourself
Agree
Maximum obnoxiousness. Arrogant.
Hey, but your opinion is obnoxious. Now what?
@@coderentity2079 your name is obnoxious so it cancel each other out..
Watching this on 7/27/2023. Would Andrew call what he said a “slight miscalculation”?
CIA expert said Ukraine is pawn on table for superpowers to calculate..."
Well this guy seems to draw the right strings in the wrong way. In example - Land Lease is not a real debt for Ukraine, the only prerequisite is to return the equipment that is still intact AFTER war is over.
Why would US give Ukraine weapons for free?
Exactly Ukraine is getting our extra supplies of armor that we have sitting around while we make more it's just a credit card for them even if they make small payments they will be just fine America won't let Russia take Ukraine in fact Ukrainians are getting trained on f16s right now in the U.S a10s ,f15s ,f16s in our bases
@@amc3463 exactly, that is my point, geopolitics are above mere economy
@@elenaelena7955 well, try retrieving your check off Afghanistan now. You got to bet the right horses in geopolitics.
@@elenaelena7955 The US is paying Ukraine to deplete the military resources of Russia, who is China's ally. U.S. does not care if Ukraine wins or loses, only if Russia loses.
It's ludicrous to believe there are not a limited number of American forces in Ukraine assisting with coordination and planning of attacks. The Moskva sinking required massive American support. Who actually pressed the launch button was only a tiny part of the entire operation.
All lntelligence comes from NATO satellites, this is simple, all analysis is provided to Ukraine as the most important help.
'No US troops' can be true if one only uses private military contractors.
you dont need forces on the ground coordinating, nato Awacs planes have hiuge range and just patrol the black sea and Ukraine's borders
@@kurtniznik8116 they're not even using western PMCs like in the middle east (Blackwater, executive outcomes, etc), that there is any evidence of. So far its all foreign legion volunteers, unless there's evidence that's not been reported.
Exactly. It was also the US that gave info to Zelensky about assasination plans and that's why he has fired so many military/secret service people.
Latest example was a couple of weeks ago when he massively fired so many of them. Because he is getting the real info about his own country from the US
Well, LNG facilities in Germany got thrown together in record time. That changes everything
Everything this guy said, in an incredibly self-assured way, didn't happen.
Actually the exact opposite happened. Maybe he was simply kicked out from the CIA...
Great historic minds and analysts have no clue how this can shape and don’t dare to through a prediction. Very, very bold statement.
This was such a good episode. Not unworthy for this “clip” to be 40 minutes long. Listening to Bustamante talk about the Mossad and even DGSE was a thrilling experience.
Its a bunch of a bullshit.
He makes a few mistakes (such as regarding the stipulations of Lend-Lease) but overall it's pretty good.
To clarify, he says that the Lend-Lease Act of 1941 was a "buy now pay later" scheme, which is incorrect. The Lend-Lease Act of 1941 was by and large free, paid for by the American Taxpayer with certain materiel (such as warships) being returned after the war.
What he was describing is more akin to stipulations of the Neutrality Act of 1939.
@@getmeoutofsanfrancisco9917 The Russian winter had more to do with the defeat of Nationalist Germany than Lend-Lease did. Were it not for that winter the world would be a much better place today.
Be careful this giy might be doing a psy op to get people to think a certain way. We dont know for sure.
Yea he talked out of his a.s..s this episode..it was great...
He was so wrong lmao 😂 😂😂😂
Ukraine has severely crippled RU.
talk about odessa massakr in 2014
An interesting conversation. One of several things I'd have to push back on is the idea that autocracies - particularly China - don't "need to worry" about hearts & minds. I might say it's that they worry more about "Controlling" hearts and minds than "winning" hearts and minds & have additional avenues of domestic control which allow them greater leeway to do one thing while saying another. Ruling parties in autocracies always seem acutely fearful of potential revolt and work harder than most other governments to suppress "unpatriotic" narratives. On an international level, countries like China and Russia expend an enormous amount of time and effort disseminating their talking points & propaganda with the goal of winning hearts and minds abroad.
Yes, I totally agree. Totally. Of course you need to control the population. For a dictatorship, the population are your tool. And yes, autocracies spend an enormous amount of time and effort to control the population. And, as you say, not necessarily to win them over, just to control them.
I wonder if the Russians regret they dropped the polical commisars?
"Ruling parties in autocracies always seem acutely fearful of potential revolt..."
Case closed.
And if you heard his opinion on Snowden, along with this take on authoritarians... it reveals everything you need to know about his worldview.
@@dually81 Please be a little more specific. Who are you referring to?
@@peterrumspringa9757 the guest, Andrew Bustamante
@@dually81 I meant who said the quote? If that also were the guest, he contradict himself.
6:48 Does he really think if Russia takes Ukraine the sanctions will be lifted? He is just so wrong on so many points it's unbelievable.
Russia is doing great at the moment the Ruble is the best it's ever been and the sanctions have back fired on the west especially the US and UK
What if you are wring?
Russia doesn't want to take Ukraine. It wants to chop it in half to end Ukraine's civil war. Russia can only successfully annex the pro russian parts of ukraine, because they much prefer living in Russia.
@@michaelcarney6280 LOL Ruble is not even traded on exchanges and Russian companies are forced to convert 80% of their foreign currencies to rubles. Ruble is dead right now.
@@peter.g6 wrong anyone buying oil or gas has to pay in Roubles get your head out of the MSM arse
Excellent analysis
OH HUN, PUTUN WENT AFTER THE EVIL ONES WITH THE DIRECTED ENERGY WEAPON.
I’m 10 minutes into the clip and I feel like it’s already enough for me.
1) It’s funny how this dude is certain, that russians will take Odessa even though another large city divided by a big river(!) is on the way to Odessa. Furthermore, even after rapid advance through Kherson during the first days of invasion, when the roads towards Mykolaiv were free and the city was not fortified at all, the russians were not able to encircle it. And even after taking or encircling Mykolaiv russians would have faced a plenty obstacles on the way to Odessa (Southern Bug river crossing, for example)
2) Airborne/Amphibious assault on Odessa became impossible after the Moskva flagship sunk and russians being forced out of the Snake Island. Also, the Black Sea fleet became a lot more cautious with their maneuvers due to Ukraine getting armed with Harpoon missiles, etc.
3) Odessa had been bombed with cruise missiles (including residential areas and the port area recently), so they are clearly not interested in preserving the infrastructure and architecture there.
The guy has no clue what he is talking about. Neither does Lex at times
As I get it his main point is on long-run effect due to US and Europe only idiological involvement in this war, not willig to put their economies at risk and societies getting bored with same news (as with Yemen and Syria wars) since Ukraine isn't significant geopolitical figure.
@@franzengold Ukraine IS an important geopolitical figure thanks to Putin. An EU and NATO member Ukraine effectively makes the Black see a NATO pond. Finland and Sweden joining has effectively made Baltic Sea a NATO water feature. Ukraine has rich, black soil. It has natural gas, it has huge river infrastructure for nuclear power plants and irrigation.
I agree with this guys assessment of IF the western support wains than Ukraine is in trouble...however his assessment takes no account for changing attitudes and actions of the EU regarding energy. EVERYBODY in Europe now knows what is at stack taking Russian energy. No more shadow corrupt political deals and favors, which Germany has shot themselves in the foot with.
So the ultimate question is what kind of sacrifice of INCONVENIENCE is the west going to tolerate to help Ukraine win its war of independence?
@@zuka1515 kinda sounds like you guys are actually buying what the media is selling you on Ukraine. The guy is definitely right about one thing in particular, this is FAR from over and will be dragged out just like Russia's proxy war in Syria, which is still going on to this very day...
We will see come winter.
thank you for this podcast .. very informative ..
It's all opinion. That's not information.
From this podcast, i just realized how big was Afghanistan victory for resisting USA until they get out. Mind blown
An excellent presentation
This dude admitted he was wrong in the beginning, and now looking back he was wrong during this interview lol. Some expert.
He's right and you can't handle the truth